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Preparation in UK

by: lugon

Mon Nov 20, 2006 at 10:00:06 AM EST


Ok, so we can have tags, can't we?  So we might have a bunch of "diaries" for each country or place.  We might even have a "London" tag.  A diary might be about London and have tags like: "big city" (or "bigcity" if tags can't be made up of two words), "UK", "Europe".

So, how do we do it, then?

Old forum place for same

lugon :: Preparation in UK
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Preparation in UK | 40 comments
old forum
lugon, I left a comment there addresing some of your concerns about open sourcce vs proprietary software.

discuss "buddy system" for antiviral medication in UK
This was posted in a news diary today (sorry, can't remember author): http://society.guard...

Everyone in Britain will be asked by their local primary care trust to name a friend or relative who could be called on for help in a pandemic.

If or when the pandemic arrives in Britain, people who fall ill would ring a helpline and, if their symptoms match those of pandemic flu, the 'buddy' would be contacted and asked to collect the medication from a central depot and deliver it as quickly as possible to their friend.

Anyone who is seriously ill would either receive a home visit or be sent to an influenza centre - a new medical facility which would deal only with those suffering from complications, which could include people with heart disease or diabetes, or young children.

Possible problems (all with a helpful attitude):
- helpline may not be enough for large numbers of in-callers.  Somewhere there was an article about (recently in the news, maybe by UK-bird) the internet not being necessarily resilient in the face of a pandemic.  By experts.
- people may want to get their personal dose just in case, earlier.  So at least a number of the treatment packs will be wasted.  This is to be expected and minimised somehow.

Of course, we need to think of alternatives.  Name at least 5.  :-)

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


repeating my post
from CurEvents on this "plan". I'll count devilish details. (Maybe the whole "antiviral buddy" thing is a red herring, for morale?)

1. So, they really have enough Tamiflu for early/extra/extended use?

2. Who's providing security to and from whatever "distribution" points?

3. the panflu won't be resistant to-
(hey come on- look at the current cfr with antivirals, vents, and ICU staff!- how can you expect us to do this with a straight face? )

4... who is going to -assuming they aren't so sick they can't ring anybody-
bring water and food and tend the sick at home?

5. An "influenza center" may just be a poor excuse of a hospice stop

6. -did this survey also have them write down as many next-of-kin and guardians for any surviving minor children as possible?

Why aren't they explaining how death certificates
will be made by which extra deputies, and, asking for community brigades to stockpile PPE and prepare to help pick up the slack?

Why isn't the UK or US telling citizens to stock up for at least 3 months... and tell them to try not to get sick so they and theirs don't die?

What part of "may go pandemic at current cfr"
or influence pandemic may last 1 to 3 years
don't they want their communities prepared for? Just in case?

-lugon; if the helpline can't handle the call volume and the public knows where the distribution points are, I'd bet they'd just get over there without permission, and want help.

Also, what are authorities going to do when buddies are reporting bodies?


[ Parent ]
Not sure I can come up with 5 alternatives
But

1) Have a drive through with sick individual in car, sick person's temp to measured by the ear thermometer. Long stetherscope to listen to lungs? Tamiflu issued there and then. Details of person centrally logged to prevent duplicates.

2) Video phone footage of sick individual with them speaking own name and national insurance number(so there isn't an internet copy you can download.) Don't warn people in advance or they'll have the footage ready.

3) Area volunteers (not necessarily medically trained but trained to measure symptoms - St John's Ambulance?) to assess people and ok the Tamiflu. Equip these people in advance with masks, gloves, Tamiflu personal supply. Decide on an incentive.

4) Let people buy Tamiflu from legitimate sources before the event so that there will be a larger supply in circulation.

5) ... nope can't think of a fifth.


delivering antiviral drugs
Antiviral drugs being a scarce resource, and a pandemic wave being an unfolding event, it's not easy to make the most of whatever quantities are available.

http://www.dh.gov.uk... leads to a PDF document updated on "19 October 2005" and to a selection of other 5 country plans.

So we don't know what UK will do, exactly.

In any case, they don't want 100% doses to become "1% well-used doses + 99% gone down the drain".

Things like storage (safe) and distribution (what makes more sense in terms of overall efficacy, what's more equitable, how to make it timely) are important issue.

Focusing on "physical distribution", UK-Bird refers to several details:
- no contact between providers and collecters
- no duplicates
- some kind of logging
- delivery must be matched to need (and if it's scarce (which it is), then add some other criteria as well)

So maybe:
- people might be given a personal piece of paper which they (or someone in the family) can exchange for their pills.  Yes, there will be attempts at forgery, some will be stolen, etc.  But we're talking "efficacy percentages" here.  No absolutes.
- what are some specific places where identities get recorded? Banks where there are video cameras?

Any more ideas?

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
emergency exercise in UK
The following was posted in the news diary: http://www.timesonli...

We can discuss it here.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


where are the details at?
..."According to the government's plans, the exercise will include "radical options"

and "projections on excess deaths and communications with the public on different ways of working to manage the dead"....


[ Parent ]
radical options in UK pandemic exercise?
"Government experts have expressed fears that up to 7m Britons could die"

That's 7 million out of 60.6 million.  More than 10%.  Much higher than the usual 1% a year, and in a shorter period of time.  Data taken from https://www.cia.gov/...

"Guidelines for coping with an epidemic suggest that people may have to be shown how to dispose of the bodies of family members killed by the disease. They also envisage that in the event of an outbreak, prisoners may have to be released early."

That's radical for some.  I'll love to see more about that Operation Winter Willow.  Aha - it's here: http://www.pfe.gov.u...

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
why would this help?
"prisoners may have to be released early."

[ Parent ]
Hmmm...how are we going to prep against hardened prisoners roaming around?
Where's that link again, to the website that deals with self-protection?

[ Parent ]
they should not turn prisoners loose who have
no where to go and no year of preps. Some awaiting trial for minor offenses might be released, if, familiy thought they would be safe, and, they had prepped.

So, since they haven't, might have to keep everybody...

Asking elected officials to look into prison pandemic planning, and, get talking household preparedness; might at least make some official uncomfortable if they hear the public is asking, (not that I expect anyone to do anything useful now; I think they will wail until they can declare emergency powers).

:-(


[ Parent ]
HPA Weekly Influenza Report
I thought I'd make a link to these - posted every Wednesday

http://www.hpa.org.u...


Report 12: Reporting period: Week 05 (29/01/07 - 04/02/07) - published week 06 (07/02/07)
http://www.hpa.org.u...

Point of interest -

Illness reported at The Army Training regiments sites at Sir John Moore Barracks in Winchester, Hants, and at Pirbright, near Woking, in Surrey was Influenza A


[ Parent ]
Report 13: Reporting period: Week 06 (05/02/07 - 11/02/07) - published week 07 (14/02/07)
http://www.hpa.org.u...

Weekly UK Influenza report


[ Parent ]
Report 14: Reporting period: Week 07 (12/02/07 - 18/02/07) - published week 08 (21/02/07)
[ Parent ]
Report 15: Reporting period: Week 08 (19/02/07 - 25/02/07) - published week 09 (28/02/07)
Report 16: Reporting period: Week 09 (26/02/07 - 04/03/07) - published week 10 (07/03/07)
http://www.hpa.org.u...

Figure 3 is interesting - I wonder if it's a good thing that there's been so little respiratory disease activity since 2000 (and even then it wasn't a bad year) due to vaccination? Or a bad thing, are pandemic years preceeded by very quiet normal flu years?


[ Parent ]
Report 17: Reporting period: Week 10 (05/03/07 - 11/03/07) - published week 11 (14/03/07)
[ Parent ]
UK - Resilience in the food industry examined in new report
http://www.cranfield...

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

Lots of new docs you might not have seen
http://www.dh.gov.uk...

They're asking for views and contributions from individuals and organisations involved in pandemic flu planning and preparedness.

Docs include:-


A national framework for responding to an influenza pandemic

An operational and strategic framework: Planning for pandemic influenza in adult social care

Guidelines for social care staff: Planning for pandemic influenza in adult social care

Pandemic influenza: Guidance on preparing acute hospitals in England Guidance on the provision of healthcare in a community setting in England

Pandemic influenza and ambulance services The ethical framework for the response to pandemic influenza

Also

NHS National Workshop on Pandemic Influenza, 5 March 2007
The Department of Health hosted the second NHS National Workshop on Pandemic Influenza on Monday 5 March at the New Connaught Rooms, London.

The workshop provided an update on preparing for pandemic influenza, highlighting progress and next steps. A number of presentations were given on national and international issues, planning presumptions, ethics, acute sector guidance, healthcare in a community setting guidance, social care  guidance and cross government planning. These presentations are provided for information and reference. (Please note the file sizes are very large).

Download NHS Workshop on Pandemic Flu 2007 Presentation - Progress and Next Steps - Lindsey Davies (PPT, 274K)

Download NHS Workshop on Pandemic Flu Presentation - Acute Sector Guidance - Gerry McSorley (PPT, 183K)

Download NHS Workshop on Pandemic Flu Presentation - National and International Context - Nick Phin (PPT, 3902K)

Download NHS Workshop on Pandemic Flu Presentation - Care in Community Settings Guidance - Amy Alcock (PPT, 734K)

Download NHS Workshop on Pandemic Flu Presentation - Cross Government - Liz McIntosh (PPT, 1147K)

Download NHS Workshop on Pandemic Flu Presentation - Ethics - Jonathan Montgomery (PPT, 268K)

Download NHS Workshop on Pandemic Flu Presentation - Planning Presumptions - Peter Grove (PPT, 694K)

Download NHS Workshop on Pandemic Flu Presentation - Social Care - Claire Crawley (PPT, 285K)


UK - HPA National Influenza Season Summary 2006-2007
http://www.hpa.org.u...

The United Kingdom experienced the seventh consecutive year of low levels of influenza activity during the 2006/2007 season.

Clinical activity started to increase late, from week 06/2007 (early February), and the episode incidence rate
peaked at 43.7 per 100,000 in week 07/2007 (mid February).

compare this to the current Australian report of 638 cases per 100,000.

Figure 3 is particularly interesting as it shows how little influenza activity there has been in the UK (still declining).

Part of this trend is due to an increasing pressure not to attend your GP for influenza like illnesses.



Do we need a new UK preppers diary?
This one is a bit old.

Might be an idea
This one's not very long, but it's mostly last season's seasonal influenza which is not very interesting now. Maybe you might start one? Could you include a reference to the Scotland one I just started, too? We should make sure there are references both ways I guess.

[ Parent ]
yep, i can make the link to the newer one
as it's "my" diary

so just yell my way :-)

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
Added a link to here from the Scottish diary
[ Parent ]
why don't I just link this to the main page
area preppers diary?

[ Parent ]
whatever works, and i can always change the text in the diary
to reflect the updated fact that we're now dealing with current stuff even if the diary itself is a bit old.

As I said, whatever works!

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
it makes me feel so sad
to see so little news on UK prepping.  ;-(



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
It doesn't come naturally to us
since the UK, thankfully, has a derth of natural hazards.

As for the government response... I suspect they suffer from the same false sense of security.

It's why I'm genuinely suprised when they announce anything.


[ Parent ]
Europe doesn't believe in high CFRs at all
http://newfluwiki2.com/showDia...

(at least, they didn't in Dec 2006)

"Case fatality rate: the proportion of ill people that would die due to influenza. Most national plans base their assumptions on a percentage of 0.37% overall case fatality rate over a pandemic period."

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
I don't think it has to do with hazards
or at least not most of it.  I do believe there is a national temperament, for every nation.  The Brits are great at times of adversity, but to PLAN for something bad that might happen?  Why that's in such poor taste.... lol

Jokes aside, with regards to the current government especially but public sector in general, what worries me a lot also has to do with competence.  Look at Heathrow Terminal 5.  Look at plans to link all of the NHS by a vast database.  Look at the Millenium Bridge, Wembley stadium, Millenium Dome.

The number of projects that sound good on paper that opens as a spectacular disaster is mind-boggling.  And that's just for disasters that are entirely predictable.  Like the inability of the baggage handling system in Heathrow to switch to manual operation when staff through lack of training (again predictable and preventable) are unable to use it!  Or the contracting of the Millenium bridge to an architectural rather than a bridge-engineering firm.  

Trying to build a database that talks across all 150+ Primary care trusts was at one point described by one expert as trying to build a bridge linking Britain with America.  Theoretically it can be done, but the cost of trying to get it to work will be so enormous.  The point is, any person with moderate experience of IT will say that it's the ultimate in white elephants.

That is what our government does.  Fixing minor or inconsequential problems with big sticks and ignoring systemic failures.

OK, end of rant.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
now look at CFR of UP TO 2.5% ;-( n/t




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
But they don't really believe it. n/t


[ Parent ]
I've said before, we elect our politicians for their good teeth
rather than their abilities and our media is mainly responsible for THAT.

End of my rant ;-)

But beneath it all is a general lack of real hazard. We don't get rid of our useless politicians because they're not really bad. They might waste our money but they don't try to shoot us very often. And most feel thay have money to waste. Incompetance hasn't lead to major disaster... yet.

We have no major weather hazards. No large carnivores. No deadly snakes (unless you're very, very unlucky). No scorpions or poisonous spiders. Even terrorism is more of a back ground threat than a tangible fear (and I say that having been so very nearly blown up by the Warrington bomb).


[ Parent ]
Weza on eBay
There are currently 18 Freeplay Wezas on eBay.co.uk at the moment - all under £100. A good time to get one.
More info at: http://www.freeplayenergy.com/...

David


Thanks I was wondering what a Weza was :-)
It puts me in mind of a clip from Red Dwarf where Lister is madly peddling a bicycle while The Cat tries to fry an egg with a hair dryer.

[ Parent ]
Oo-er
I bought their wind-up/solar radio for £25 on Amazon, but it's 40 squids on the Freeplay website!

Thanks for the tip re the Weza (prn. Weeza?!) dawood - OH would love one!


[ Parent ]
wezas
Ruby,

Go get one! There's 9 currently available on a Buy-it-now basis - cheapest at £55 + postage.

http://electronics.shop.ebay.c...

Amazon are doing freeplay light centres discounted at £24.99 http://www.amazon.co.uk/Freepl...

The rechargeable batteries in the torches need to be resurrected (which is simple - ask me how!)

David


[ Parent ]
I second the recommendation.
I saved up for a Weza - love it.  They're harder to find in the U.S. than they were. (Still available here: http://www.batteryjunction.com... .) Hope you get one, Ruby.

Preparation in UK | 40 comments
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