News Reports for April 30, 2009

Fort Worth ISD Closed all schools

 
www.fwisd.org

4/29/2009      

Fort Worth ISD To Close All Schools Immediately Because of Swine Flu Threat

The Fort Worth Independent School District will temporarily close all schools until further notice, effective Thursday, April 30, 2009.  Schools will likely not reopen any sooner than Monday, May 11.

This follows the official confirmation of one case of swine flu at one campus -- previously reported as a probable case --and the announcement that there are three other probable cases at three other schools.

Superintendent Melody Johnson, Mrs. Lou Brewer, director of the Tarrant County Public Health Department, and Dr. Sandra Parker, medical director of the Tarrant County Public Health Department, jointly made the announcement at a news conference Wednesday evening.

"We have been diligently following the recommendations of our local public health authorities since this crisis first began," said Dr. Johnson.  "We will continue to work with the senior-most staff of the local health department

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by: aggiew @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 03:38:24 AM UTC

Probable Swine Flu in King County, Washington State

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

KING COUNTY, WA - Today, three probable cases of swine influenza A (H1N1), also known as swine flu, have been identified in King County. The laboratory samples have been sent to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and Public Health - Seattle & King County is awaiting final confirmation.

Health officials encourage residents to get prepared at home and work.

http://www.kingcounty.gov/heal...

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by: JV @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 04:20:45 AM UTC

TX: UIL competition suspended because of swine flu

http://news.google.com/news/ur...
04:13 PM CDT on Wednesday, April 29, 2009

By BRIAN DAVIS / The Dallas Morning News

The University Interscholastic League has suspended all athletic activity throughout Texas until May 11 because of the swine flu outbreak.

The agency also suspended non-athletic events, including the Academic State Meet and the Texas State Wind Ensemble festival.

"Taking every possible precaution to prevent the further spreading of this disease is an important contribution to the welfare of our great state, and altering the schedule of our events is a way to keep our participants safe."

The decision was based on the recommendation of the Texas Department of Health Services and in consultation with the Texas Education Agency, the UIL said.  

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by: AlohaOR @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 04:33:29 AM UTC

Swine Flu Source Apparently Not Pigs, Says FAO

The UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is responding to the swine flu outbreak by sending out emergency assessment teams and monitoring whether any evidence appears that the disease is actually affecting pigs and not just humans.

(Snip) "The FAO is doing, as a technical agency... alerting all the countries and governments through people in the field through very active rumor tracking of anything which could happen in pigs," he said. "One is to confirm that pigs are not the origin of the human crisis. And second, to be ready to detect and respond if there is an infection of pigs from this new virus coming from humans."

An FAO assessment team is heading for Mexico, along with experts from the World Health Organization and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control. "We have mobilized funds to assist our country members to strengthen their surveillance system in pig production," Domenech said.

Clarifying the apparent lack of evidence of pig involvement, he added "Today, all the processes we are working on are based on the fact that the crisis is human to human without intervention of pigs. It's a pure contagious human to human (transmission) and there is no declaration, there is no rumor, there is no identification of flu in pigs. Of course, this has also to be carefully investigated more than it was before... We hope that it will be confirmed." Continued: http://english.chosun.com/site...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 04:40:42 AM UTC

Email I sent to NC Schools Superintendent and Gaston County, NC Superintendent

NOTE: Please forgive the poor wording... I wrote this quickly, also, any advice as to what else I should tell them. In the original email my full name a street address appeared. Also cc'ed to local newspaper, radio and television stations:

Superintendent McGlohon and Superintendent Atkinson,

I am writing to ask you to consider shutting down the Gaston County Schools, and indeed all North Carolina public schools, as an important step in protecting our children from the current developing novel flu situation.  The CDC has excellent resources pertaining to schools and virus spread:
http://www.cdc.gov/flu/school/...
In addition, there is an article addressing school closure policies across the nation (http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/13/2/344.htm).  I would ask you both to consider stepping up and taking the lead to reduce and slow the inevitable spread of this virus.  There is probably no way to prevent the spread of the influenza virus, but we can certainly slow its spread.  If you read this paper, http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content... you will see that "studies have suggested that early school closures can help reduce influenza illness in the community and among school children, especially during a pandemic. However, surveillance systems that rely on school absenteeism or deaths would likely provide information too late during the outbreak for school closure to effectively reduce influenza transmission."  I urge you to read this entire article.  It not only bears out the effectiveness of closing schools, but the importance of closing them before the disease strikes.

If there is no way to prevent the spread then why would I be interested in slowing it?  The two biggest reasons are one, to prevent or mitigate the onslaught of patients to our hospitals and doctors' offices.  The second is the slower the virus spreads, the longer time we have to develop, test and distribute a vaccine.

I know you are and will continue to be in contact with the CDC, the State Department of Health and other pertinent agencies in seeking advice on how to address this current situation.  I respectfully ask you to consider the material I have presented above and to do some independent research of your own.

Regards,

David

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by: David @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 04:54:47 AM UTC

NZ - Community health centres planned as number of swine flu cases rise

 Thu, 30 Apr 2009 12:35p.m.

Health officials are planning to open a community health centre in Auckland for dealing with swine flu, as the number of suspected cases continues to rise.

The Ministry of Health says there are now 104 people who are being tested for influenza A. If the results are positive, they will be tested for swine flu.

Health officials are discussing setting up a community clinical centre in Auckland, probably at Middlemore Hospital to help test and treat suspected cases.

Similar centres may be set up around the country as well.

The health minister says New Zealand's action plan is appropriate.

link http://www.3news.co.nz/Communi...

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

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by: AnnieB @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 05:28:47 AM UTC

20 'suspect' swine flu cases in Miami-Dade

Found here  

Twenty possible swine flu cases have been identified in Miami-Dade County, health officials said Wednesday. But it could be several days before the test results come back.

The cases are considered ''suspect'' because the patients have flu symptoms and have traveled to Mexico or other areas where the swine flu has been identified.

 ''If they have fever and respiratory symptoms and they've traveled, they meet the definition [for testing],'' Conte said.

The viral samples, collected over the past few days, have been sent to the Florida Department of Health lab in Tampa, he said. Virologists there will analyze them to see if they can identify them as regular seasonal flu. If they can't, they will send them on to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta for final analysis. Results might take five days or more, they said, because of a backlog in cases..

......

''The CDC is the only lab in the country that can do the analysis, and they're inundated with samples from the whole country,'' Conte said.

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by: mountainlady @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 06:51:51 AM UTC

New Zealand swine flu suspects hits 104

April 30, 2009, 7:19 pm
http://nz.news.yahoo.com/a/-/w...

The number of confirmed and probable cases of swine flu in New Zealand rose to 16 on Thursday, health officials say, as the figure for suspected cases passed the 100 mark.

The Ministry of Health said it had added three new probable cases on Thursday, for a total of 13 probable cases and three confirmed.

All of these people had recently travelled from North America or Mexico , except for one, who was the child of one of the travellers.

The number of suspected swine flu cases in the country had also risen, to 104 by Thursday, Health Minister Tony Ryall said, from 31 on Wednesday.

"The growth in the suspects is primarily from close family contacts of passengers on flights," Ryall told a press conference.

"We are working hard to identify people potentially with swine flu so that we can provide them with treatment and support and limit the spread of the flu."

The World Health Organisation has raised its flu alert to phase five out of six, described as a "strong signal that a pandemic is imminent".

Meanwhile, the deputy director of public health, Fran McGrath, said the number of suspected cases was sure to rise further in New Zealand .

But she added that the New Zealand victims so far had not become seriously ill.

"It is relatively easily spread, and the symptoms we are getting are still around the mild end of the spectrum of influenza symptoms," she said.

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by: Pixie @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 09:56:59 AM UTC

Swine flu: From nowhere to pandemic Phase 5 in less than a month

10 hours ago
http://www.google.com/hostedne...

TORONTO - Scientists have been anxiously watching H5N1 avian flu for more than a decade, fearing the virulent virus will take hold in humans and cause a pandemic.

But out of nowhere, a new virus has emerged and rocketed the world to within a hair of the first pandemic since 1968. Some important points on the timeline of H1N1 swine flu.

1998:

An H1N1 swine flu virus containing swine, avian and human genes is recognized in pig populations in North America. This virus will later be recognized as a parent of the new swine flu.

2009:

March 31 - A clinical trial designed to assess the efficacy of a new rapid diagnostic test for influenza finds an untypeable flu virus in a sample from a person from the San Diego area. Public health is alerted and the virus is sent for testing in Wisconsin and later to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control.

April 17 - The CDC informs the World Health Organization it has found a case where an H1N1 swine flu virus infected a person in California. The virus is similar to the triple reassortant but with two swapped genes. Human infection with animal flu viruses signals a pandemic threat and WHO alerts member states.

April 17 - The head of Mexico's national microbiology lab emails Dr. Frank Plummer, head of Canada's national lab in Winnipeg, asking for help figuring out what is behind outbreaks of severe respiratory disease in parts of Mexico. Plummer offers assistance.

April 20 - The Public Health Agency of Canada warns quarantine services to be on the lookout for sick travellers returning from Mexico.

April 21 - The CDC issues an advisory revealing it has found two human swine flu cases in California. The WHO says it is watching.

April 22 - Specimens from Mexico arrive at the Winnipeg lab shortly before lunch. Within 24 hours researchers there realize at least some of the Mexican cases are human infections with the H1N1 swine flu virus.

April 23 - The CDC says they've found seven swine flu infections, in California and Texas.

April 24 - Mexico informs the WHO the Winnipeg lab has confirmed H1N1 swine flu is causing disease in Mexico.

April 26 - Officials in Nova Scotia and British Columbia announce Canada's first swine flu cases.

April 27 - The WHO raises the pandemic alert level to Phase 4 for the first time since the scale was created. Five countries have cases.

April 29 - The WHO raises the pandemic alert level to Phase 5, one away from a pandemic. It says the virus is spreading from person to person in both Mexico and the United States.

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by: Pixie @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 10:06:30 AM UTC

Probable TexMex virus in Lahti region, Finland

http://penumbra-pandemia.blogs...

Probable TexMex virus in Lahti region, Finland

Sikainfluenssaepäilystä luvassa lisätietoa iltapäivällä
YLE Uutiset
julkaistu Thursday 30 April 2009 klo 12:29, päivitetty tänään klo 13:10
http://yle.fi/uutiset/kotimaa/...
"Lahdessa sikainfluenssaepäilyn vuoksi hoidettavana olevan naisen tila on säilynyt hyvänä. Päijät-Hämeen alueella ei ole myöskään todettu uusia sikainfluenssaepäilyjä.
Meksikosta palannut nainen otettiin Päijät-Hämeen keskussairaalaan eristyshoitoon viikonloppuna alkaneiden oireiden vuoksi. Kyseessä on Suomen ensimmäinen influenssaepäily.
Naiselta on otettu laboratorionäytteitä, joiden alustavat tulokset valmistuvat tänään kello 16:een mennessä. Näytteet on lähetetty jatkotutkimuksiin Helsinkiin. Täysin varma tieto taudinkuvasta saadaan ensi viikolla.
Naisen lähikontakteilla on aloitettu varmuuden vuoksi ehkäisevä Tamiflu-lääkitys, mutta heillä ei toistaiseksi ole ilmaantunut influenssan kaltaisia oireita. Heitä on kehotettu pysymään kotona, kunnes sairaudesta saadaan lisätietoa. Heidän vapaaehtoinen karanteeninsa päättyy muutaman päivän sisällä, kun laboratoriokokeista saadaan alustavia tuloksia.
Meksikosta viikko sitten palanneella naisella ilmenneet oireet täyttävät kansallisten ohjeiden kriteerit sikainfluenssaepäilystä. Naisella nousi viikon kuluttua Suomeen palaamisen jälkeen 38,5 asteen kuume ja hänellä ilmaantui särkyjä ja tulehdusoireita.
Päijät-Hämeen alueella ei ole torstaihin mennessä ilmennyt uusia tartuntaepäilyjä. Lahden kaupungin viranomaiset ovat kuitenkin ohjeistaneet kaupunkilaisia sikainfluenssasta, mitenkä tulee toimia, jos epäilee saaneensa tartunnan."
*************

Briefly in English:
Probable TexMex virus in Lahti, Finland. A woman that came back to Finland from Mexico is now in Päijät-Häme central hospital in quarantine. She began to had influenza symptoms in last weekend. Her condition has been stable good all the time. This is the first TexMex virus suspect in Finland. The preliminary lab tests will be ready today at 16 pm. The confirmation tests will be due in the weekend.
The infection contacts of the woman are receiving oseltamivir (Tamiflu), but tey haven't got any influenza symptoms this far. They have been told to stay home until there is more information of the illness of the index case. Their voluntary quarantine will end in a few days, after the lab test results are available.
The index case came back to Finland from Mexico a week ago. After that she got temperature 38,5 C, pains and inflammation symptoms. There haven't been new infection suspects in the Päijät-Häme region. The authority in Lahti town have given population instructions of how to react if omeone suspects to have got an infection.

*********
Editor note: In Finland publicity the instruction is that suspect swine flu only if you have influenza symptoms AND you came back from Mexico during latest week. Hopefully people in Lahti region alert doctors also if got influenza symptoms even though no traveling to Mexico... ;)

Life is a narrow bridge. Most important is to have no fear. Have no fear at all.

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by: Thinlina @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 10:47:28 AM UTC

IMO, that is a stupid name....

for something so serious. Calling it "TexMex" reads like  the reporter is making fun of the situation.  

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 11:07:41 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

TexMex

It wasn't the YLE reporter's name but a name by the blogger. Is there something funny in TexMex style? At least "TexMex" describe the virus originated from Texas-Mexico border better than "swine influenza"; It isn't swine influenza. There's no information of diseased swine by this virus. This virus is a combination of human, poultry and swine influenza. Not only swine influenza.

Life is a narrow bridge. Most important is to have no fear. Have no fear at all.

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by: Thinlina @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 11:19:42 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not where it originated.

It didn't originate in the Texas-Mexican border area. No there is NOTHING funny about the "Tex-Mex style," that is my point. Tex-Mex is a name given to a style of food and culture and I happen to love the food and respect the people in that area. Calling the virus TexMex is stigmatizing an area of the US and Mexico.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 11:42:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

agree 100%

The border is 100s of miles from the putative epicenter of this outbreak. There have been more and earlier cases in Calif than Tx, so not sure where this TexMex business is coming from (other than lazy ignorance)

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by: nika @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 12:02:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Exactly nika.

At this time there are no suspected or confirmed cases in the El Paso-Juarez area and in many other border areas.  The term Tex-Mex is not only demeaning it is also misleading.

"I am opposed to any form of tyranny over the mind of man."  Thomas Jefferson

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by: History Lover @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 13:20:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lots of silliness out there!

I think Egypt is taking the cake tho, killing 300,000 pigs in response to swine flu that is in HUMANS, on the OTHER side of the world.  I think this should disqualify them from opening up any other pig operations, period.

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by: nika @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 14:37:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Well.....

You take long time to make the cae about Texas, but nothing about the mileading term "swine influenza"? Is that okay for you?

Life is a narrow bridge. Most important is to have no fear. Have no fear at all.

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by: Thinlina @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 16:20:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

dissertation on all that is wrong

i dont think this thread was meant to be an exhaustive treatise on all of the poor messaging/nomenclature.

The term swine flu is a separate issue from the incipient use of the wholly innaccurate use of TexMex flu

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by: nika @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 16:24:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

USA - CA - Marine at Twentynine Palms Tests Positive For Swine Flu

TWENTYNINE PALMS -- Tests confirm a Marine based at Twentynine Palms in San Bernardino County is infected with the swine flu and is under quarantine, along with about 30 other Marines.

The Marine suffered from vomiting and other flu-like symptoms, Gen. James Conway, the Marine Corps commandant, said at a Pentagon briefing.

But, he added, "He's doing fine. He's up and about, he says he feels pretty good. ... There appears to be no threat him in terms of loss of life."

Source
http://www.ktla.com/landing_to...

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by: Kobie @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 10:52:58 AM UTC

Phase 6 soon?

http://cnnwire.blogs.cnn.com/2...

April 30th, 2009
WHO: Swine flu count rises to 154, raises specter of level 6 pandemic
Posted: 06:35 AM ET
GENEVA, Switzerland (CNN) - The number of confirmed swine flu cases worldwide has risen to 154, with six additional cases reported in Spain, the World Health Organization said Thursday.

Until now, the country had four confirmed cases.

Of the 10 total cases of the 2009 H1N1 virus in Spain, nine were found in people who had returned from Mexico.

But authorities are troubled about the 10th case which they say is a case of community transmission, spread from one person in the community to another, said WHO spokesman Dick Thompson.

If Spain now sees more such cases of community transmission, the world body may have to elevate its pandemic alert another notch to its highest level.

Phase 6 is the pandemic phase and is characterized by a community-level outbreak in another country in a different WHO region.

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by: Bronco Bill @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 10:54:19 AM UTC

why all the fuss?

IF the illness is mild?

Isn't it still way too early to tell the without tamiflu & hospital treatment of the  few cases?

Tell the truth

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by: Goju @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 11:05:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

not mild in Mexico, and it's the same flu.

There is also the effects on the supply chains of food and vital services WW of even a relatively mild virus sickening great numbers of the world population at the same time, and the resultant economic, social and health implications of that. Right now, in these 'early stages' it may seem like no worries, but as it grows these effects may become more obvious and dangerous. Waiting to deal with these until they are already happening is only going to make the effects that much worse.

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:53:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

it might be a "mild" category 2 pandemic

I'm not saying I know what the CFR is, nor am I trying to convince people this pandemic is mild.

But it is possible that what is going on in Mexico IS a "mild" category 2 pandemic, with CFR of 0.1 - 0.5%.  And that the result of such a pandemic IS what is going in Mexico, in an UNMITIGATED cat. 2 Pandemic.

Because Mexico didn't do much to slow the spread, until way past the threshold for it to work.

There's nothing "mild" about such a pandemic.  If an illness is capable of killing people, that illness is NOT mild.

After all a "mild" category 2 pandemic here in the US (unmitigated) could cause some 450,000 deaths.  I think that would cause some panic.

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.

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by: Average Concerned Mom @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 16:00:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Category 2-3

The language of the CDC's guidance to school's regarding school closure corresponds to planned CMG recommendations for a category 2 or 3 pandemic.  

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by: InKy @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 00:20:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Too early to say severe. Too early to say mild. (To say nothing of impact.) nt

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

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by: Into The Woods @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 20:11:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

THAT'S THE DEFINITION FOR 6...

""community-level outbreak in another country in a different WHO region"

Since their rationale for the current phases seems to be the activity of North America it seems reasonable that new h2h activity in another region would suffice.

I'm curious why NZ cases are taking so long to confirm?  According to other news reports here, their suspected case count is now higher than the US.  Perhaps waiting for it to spill over to a neighboring nation??

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by: Quartzman @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 11:15:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Re curious re NZ confirmations

In order for the cases to be confirmed by a WHO lab, they have to go to Australia.

The local Health has been collecting samples and sending them but "assumes" that if a few of the samples are positive then the rest will be positive cases too - this happened with the first 10 cases.  They all had the same travel history and symptoms and the 1st 3 samples tested in Australia were positive.

The main criteria now is that if the test for Influenza A is positive (test done locally) and the history is "appropriate" then the person is isolated and tamiflu treated immediately.  Samples are still being sent (I understand) but the transport and testing process can take 4 - 7 days ....

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

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by: AnnieB @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 14:56:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Peru has first case, 3 others suspected

http://www.alertnet.org/thenew...

also from Veratect-

Peru: Five Suspected Cases of Swine Influenza Nationwide - Lima (3), Cusco (1), Iquitos, Loreto (1).

http://twitter.com/veratect

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by: mercury john @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 11:03:56 AM UTC

Switzerland confirmed first case

http://www.jpost.com/servlet/S...

Switzerland on Thursday became the latest country to report a swine flu infection - a 19-year-old student who health officials said was mistakenly released from a hospital and then hastily readmitted.

oops.

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by: mercury john @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 11:31:25 AM UTC

Flu samples burst in Swiss train, no one infected

http://www.nj.com/newsflash/in...

(AP) - LAUSANNE, Switzerland (AP) ? Swiss police say a container with animal swine flu samples burst as it was being shipped on a Swiss train.

Authorities say the accident Monday on a train traveling from Zurich to Geneva posed no threat to humans.

Police in the Swiss canton of Vaud said Tuesday the virus was a type of swine flu unconnected with the human outbreak in Mexico. They blamed the explosion on bad packing of the samples in dry ice.

About 40 police and medical experts boarded the train to care for passengers. One person was slightly injured.

The samples were being transferred to Geneva as part of Swiss plans to develop an effective test for detecting swine flu in humans.

~~~~~~~~
bizarre and very un-swiss like.

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by: mercury john @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 11:41:37 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NOT - H1N1 Human Swine flu samples.

Only animal swine flu.  


ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

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by: Into The Woods @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 20:13:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maryland: 6 likely cases of swine flu

Federal officials confirm 91 infections in 11 states
By Stephanie Desmon | stephanie.desmon@baltsun.com
April 30, 2009

State officials said Wednesday that they had identified six probable cases of the swine flu in Maryland - including in two school-age children - as the World Health Organization signaled a pandemic is imminent and federal health authorities said there were 91 confirmed cases of the virus spread across 11 other states.

None of those sickened in Maryland has been hospitalized, and all had links to people who had traveled to Mexico, the epicenter of the outbreak, or other countries where there have been swine flu cases, Gov. Martin O'Malley said.

The schools attended by the two children - Folger McKinsey Elementary School in Severna Park and Milford Mill Academy in southwestern Baltimore County - are not being closed, and there is no fear at this time that the virus has spread to other students.

full story
http://www.baltimoresun.com/ne...

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

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by: cottontop @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 11:57:11 AM UTC

Health officer expects flu to reach Oregon

State public health officers said Wednesday swine flu cases are likely to surface soon in Oregon, and Jackson County health officials said local school closures could be recommended if children are diagnosed with the virus. "We're expecting there's going to be a confirmed case," Dr. Gary Oxman told reporters during a telephone press conference in Portland. Oxman is the regional public health officer for Multnomah, Washington and Clackamas counties.

"What leads me to say that is this is an epidemic that's reaching toward a pandemic and reaching toward Oregon," Oxman said.

Published reports indicate two cases of swine flu have been confirmed in Marin County, California, and two more likely cases have been identified. Three cases have been identified in Sacramento County.

Dr. Jim Shames, Jackson County's medical officer, said recommendations about when to close schools would likely come down from the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to state health officials and from there to county health officers, who would consult with school districts. He said school and county officials have done training exercises on illness-related school closures, so they already have established good communications. "We're going to do what's right for our community based on what we're seeing here," Shames said. Continued: http://www.mailtribune.com/app...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 12:11:08 PM UTC

Mexico plans shutdown as World flu alert raised

By MARK STEVENSON and ANDREW O. SELSKY (Associated Press Writers)
From Associated Press
April 30, 2009 4:55 AM EST
MEXICO CITY - Mexico readied a "temporarily closed" sign - taking the drastic step of ordering a suspension of nonessential federal government and private business activity as it tried to squelch a swine flu epidemic. The World Health Organization ratcheted up an alert and warned that "all of humanity" is threatened.

The dire warning showed that world health officials are very worried about the potential for massive numbers of deaths worldwide from the mutated virus, even though the epidemic so far has claimed only a confirmed eight lives in Mexico and one in the United States. Roughly 170 deaths are suspected of having been caused by the virus in Mexico.

full story
http://enews.earthlink.net/art...

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

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by: cottontop @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 12:16:38 PM UTC

Also: citizens asked to stay home

Mexicans have been told to stay home for a five-day partial shutdown of the economy after the World Health Organisation said a swine flu pandemic is imminent.

http://news.sky.com/skynews/Ho...

Hope everyone has enough food and water for a week or two...

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by: Jonathan @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 14:27:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

WHO issues advice to prevent flu spread in hospitals

GENEVA (Reuters) - Countries should be on high alert for the new swine flu virus, tracking any suspect cases and ensuring medical workers do not spread it further, the World Health Organization said on Thursday.

Doctors and hospital staff must wear protective masks and gloves and wash their hands often to lower the risk of transmitting the new strain among themselves and patients, the United Nations agency said in fresh guidance on the outbreak.

"All countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans. Countries should remain on high alert for unusual outbreaks of influenza-like illness and severe pneumonia," WHO Director-General Margaret Chan said.
(Snip)
"At this stage, effective and essential measures include heightened surveillance, early detection and treatment of cases and infection control in all health facilities," Chan told a news conference late on Wednesday.

Laboratories must gear up to analyze quickly whether patients have the new strain and follow good biosafety measures, said Chan, adding the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) was working to make diagnostic kits available to other countries and laboratories.

The new virus has killed up to 176 people in Mexico and is spreading fast. Continued: http://www.reuters.com/article...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 12:17:48 PM UTC

Air pollution + swine flu = deadly?

Why so many deaths in Mexico but few elsewhere? Maybe because of air pollution levels are so high there? And how serious it is among smokers?

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by: timmyone @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 12:30:58 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe not

The Washington Post notes:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

U.S. public health authorities have been worried that the virus would start producing the severe pneumonia and deaths that so far have been limited to Mexico, where the epidemic began. "The clinical picture in the United States is looking a bit more like the Mexican situation," said Nancy Cox, a flu expert at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.  

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by: Jonathan @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 12:56:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Addendum

To be clear, Nancy Cox isn't just "a flu expert" at CDC, she's the Director of CDC's Influenza Division.

---

by: Jonathan @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 12:57:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Uh-oh n/t

---

by: ssal @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 13:09:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Uh oh is right

Saw this first on a Veratect text message.  It would be interesting to hear some elaboration of exactly what's meant -- was she just referring to the death in Houston yesterday, or other cases as well?

---

by: Jonathan @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 13:12:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Speak english, Nancy

""The clinical picture in the United States is looking a bit more like the Mexican situation,"

Yeah, that is just great. Well, maybe engineers should talk like that too to the general populace, "It surely looks like another CFIT with this accident."

What clinical picture? Seeing more seriously ill swine flu patients? More deaths? WHAT? Really hate that doctorspeak.

---

by: timmyone @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 13:36:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not big enough sample elsewhere to really know that

First, lets assume that only 2 or 3 die out of each 100 cases (a severe pandemic) and we remember that just because 97 cases have survived the 98th, 99th and 100th will not necessarily die.  (They're probabilities, not rules.)

Then we look at the countries other than Mexico that have more than 100 cases.  Zero.

Now probabilities work both ways, you don't need to have 100 cases to get 3 deaths.

But with the small numbers elsewhere and incomplete data out of Mexico, it is almost impossible to say (yet) that non-Mexico cases are or will remain significantly less severe.  
 

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 20:26:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Also remember

That in 1918 you would have households unaffected or sick and recovered, and a household with maybe 8 of 8 dead.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

---

by: Oremus @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 20:47:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Randomness Brings Its Own Outrage

In creating outrage or fear, there is nothing like the random and "unfair" to put in the chill.

John M. Barry's book about the 1918 pandemic  (The Great Influenza: The Epic Story of the Deadliest Plague In History)  was a testimony to that.

I'm guessing it's already on your shelf, but anyone who has not read it, should get it now and skip to the chapters describing that pandemic.  

Things I could not believe.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 23:21:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Switzerland and Netherlands confirm swine flu cases

Switzerland and the Netherlands have become the latest countries to confirm swine flu infections as efforts continue to prevent the spread of the virus.

EU health ministers are meeting in Luxembourg today to discuss their response to the illness and to co-ordinate efforts to prevent a large-scale outbreak. Continued: http://www.belfasttelegraph.co...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 12:23:45 PM UTC

Nursing times.net (UK): Swine flu - what every nurse should know

..."Nurses are being asked to play a key role in the process of containment that is key to tackling the disease.

They are being kept up to date on latest developments through their PCT or hospital trust, and Lynn Young, primary care advisor at the RCN, says the college has been working with the Department of Health for two years on plans for flu outbreaks, which are now kicking in.

Algorithms have been produced for the management of flu cases in both children and adults, and ethical frameworks for the treatment of flu outbreaks have been produced..."

..."The Department of Health has announced that leaflets describing flu prevention measures will be delivered to all UK households..."

Its key advice to clinicians comes in the form of algorithms (pdf here: http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAw... ) for the management of people who travelled from affected countries, and for close contacts of probable or confirmed cases of swine flu.

It says clinicians should consider swine influenza A (H1N1) virus infection for patients who present with febrile acute respiratory illness if they have returned from Mexico or affected areas of the US within the previous week..."

more... http://www.nursingtimes.net/sw...

Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little- Edmund Burke

---

by: MaMa @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 12:29:53 PM UTC

What a pandemic could cost the world

http://experts.foreignpolicy.c...

When the world sneezes, it's the global economy that catches the nastiest cold.

By Warwick  J. McKibbin and Alexandra A. Sidorenko

Comparing the recent outbreak of swine flu to the influenza epidemic of 1918-19 may seem premature. A century ago, 50 million died -- a mortality rate far, far higher than this current strain has seen so far. Yet while today's modern world is much better prepared to deal with a public health emergency, in one respect, it is in fact more vulnerable to contagion. The integrated nature of the global economy means that international finance offers little resistance to the economic shocks that accompany pandemics.

Even with a relatively small number of cases and deaths, the global cost of a modern epidemic is large and not limited to the countries directly affected. Outbreaks inspire massive drops in the consumption of various goods and services (think tourism and group recreation); they increase businesses' operating costs, and they speed the flight of foreign capital. The SARS epidemic in 2003 offers a telling example. As flights were cancelled, schools shut down, and panic gripped Asian markets, the relatively short-lived outbreak cost the world $40 billion.

In 2006, we estimated the likely global economic consequences of an influenza pandemic using several epidemic scenarios. The study began with a multi-country, multi-sector, dynamic model capable of describing the trade and financial linkages between and within economies. We then fed the model with a series of shocks meant to simulate the effect of pandemic: a decreased labor force, increased business costs, a shift in consumer preferences due to social distancing, and changes to risk premiums. We took into account the geography of each region and the strength of its health system. Labor supply shocks varied depending on the infection rate and mortality in a given country.

Even a mild pandemic, we discovered, would likely make a noticeable dent in global economic output. The mild scenario, estimated to cost the world 1.4 million lives, reduces total output by nearly 1 percent or approximately $330 billion (in constant 2006 prices) during the first year. In our model, as the scale of the pandemic increases, so do the economic costs. A massive global economic slowdown occurs in the next-worst scenario, with more than 142 million people killed and some output in economies in the developing world shrinking by half. The loss in output in this scenario could reach $4.4 trillion, 12.6 percent of global GDP in the first year. Of course, the composition of the slowdown would differ sharply across countries, with a major shift of global capital from the affected economies to the less-affected safe havens of North America and Europe.

In the most severe scenario, cost shocks play a much larger role in the GDP losses. Markets close down entirely. Wealth and income effects are larger in developing countries, and the contraction of demand is therefore much larger than in Europe and North America (Japan is caught in the middle). The destructive cycle feeds itself; Worse epidemiological outcomes in poorer countries perversely send much-needed capital flowing out and into industrialized economies. This exacerbates the current-account positions of the receiving countries and puts downward pressure on developing-country exchange rates. In essence, entire developing markets could become junk assets. World trade would likely contract significantly.

So far, our real-world swine flu pandemic appears to be less severe than the dire scenarios used in our modeling. But even now, the global economy is seeing some troubling signs of capital retreat. The Mexican peso, for example, has taken a hit. And just five days after news of the outbreak, it looked likely that Mexico's government would have to tap its $47 billion credit line with the International Monetary Fund.

Although stocking Tamiflu and developing vaccines might be the most pressing priorities of the day, it will take a much longer, sustained effort to prevent a future financial catastrophe. Investing in poverty reduction and healthcare in developing countries are the keys to managing pandemics in the long term. For now, we will have to live with a world where a relatively minor flu outbreak in Mexico City can send markets reeling in Tokyo.

Warwick J. McKibbin is Director of the Australian National University Centre for Applied macroeconomic Analysis, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and professorial fellow at the Lowy Institute for International Policy. Alexandra A. Sidorenko is adjunct research fellow at Australian National University.

---

by: ChrisC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 12:30:44 PM UTC

This is where I live: Ventura County confirms two cases of the swine flu

http://www.venturacountystar.c...

County confirms two cases of the swine flu
Two schools close after Oxnard boys diagnosed

Ventura County has its first two confirmed cases of swine flu, according to the Ventura County Public Health Department.

Sheila Murphy, Public Health Department spokeswoman, confirmed late Wednesday night that a 9-year-old and a 13-year-old, both Oxnard boys, have both tested positive for the H1N1 virus, or swine flu.

The schools the boys attend will be closed today, Murphy said.

The 9-year-old boy attends Art Haycox Elementary and the 13-year-old boy goes to Blackstock Junior High School, both in the Hueneme School District.

It was not immediately known how the boys contracted the virus.

Murphy did not know where the 9-year-old was tested, but the 13-year-old came into the Maravilla branch of the Clinicas del Camino Real healthcare facility in Oxnard, according to Clincas CEO Roberto Juarez.

Clinicas has nine facilities in Ventura County.

Juarez said Dr. Bob Levin, medical director for county Public Health, called him Wednesday night at 9:45 to have Juarez send the medical staff who saw the 13-year-old for testing and treatment.

The Maravilla clinic, at 450 Clara St., is currently undergoing decontamination.

"We have a staff over there sanitizing all the chairs, counters, lab equipment," Juarez said.

Murphy said the Public Health Department plans to hold a press conference at 10 a.m. today.

Earlier Wednesday, Dr. Levin had held a news conference in Oxnard to refute rumors that a swine flu case had been confirmed at St. John's Regional Medical Center in Oxnard.

The rumor had spread throughout the community by e-mail.

Another swine flu scare occurred in Agoura Hills when two students in the same classroom at Yerba Buena School came down with the "seasonal flu," Las Virgenes Unified School District officials said. The students were tested and one test came back negative for swine flu and officials believe the other test will have the same result.

The Los Angeles County Health Department asked to come to Yerba Buena School to test students who were in the same classroom and who had been out with flulike symptoms. It was a precautionary measure, according to the district, and there are no reported cases of swine flu in the school district or in Los Angeles County.

At the Wednesday news conference Levin noted the Health Department is activating its pandemic preparedness plan. The World Health Organization had earlier upgraded the pandemic flu threat to a level five on its six-point scale. Level five means the disease is transmissible among humans and a pandemic is imminent.

The plan includes a twice-daily check-in with all area hospitals and clinics to see how many patients have been tested for flulike symptoms and how many have been admitted.

The department is also asking school districts throughout Ventura County to monitor trends in staff and student absences and to report any influenza-type illnesses. School districts have agreed to monitor absences three days a week - Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Employees and families of absent students may receive a follow-up call from the school about the nature of the illness.

Several California schools have closed, and a quarantine is in place at the Marine base at Twentynine Palms after one confirmed case of swine flu. Officials at San Diego State University are also investigating a student's illness.

The number of confirmed swine flu cases in California reached 14 on Wednesday, not including the two cases in Ventura County. State health authorities say they are investigating another 17 possible cases in eight counties. There have been three hospitalizations and no fatalities.

Officials at the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention are still investigating why people in Mexico are dying with the disease, but the strain in the U.S. is more mild. With the exception of a 23-month-old toddler in Texas, whose parents brought him to the U.S. from Mexico to be treated, there have been no deaths in the U.S.

Levin said there are two key differences between the avian flu, which first struck Asia in 2003, and swine flu. Avian flu was transmissible only from bird to human; swine flu, the H1N1 virus, is transmissible from human to human. The other difference, Levin said, is that we don't yet know how virulent the H1N1 virus is. We will know more in the next two or three weeks as more details from Mexico emerge, he said.

- Star staff writer Cheri Carlson and The Associated Press contributed to this story.

---

by: ChrisC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 13:32:40 PM UTC

Disney?

GREENVILLE, S.C - Nearly 20 South Carolina high school students who went on a band trip to Disney World have reported flu-like symptoms, prompting their school to be shut down.

http://www.myfoxtampabay.com/d...

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by: Jonathan @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 13:34:49 PM UTC

Can you think of a worse place to have panflu circulating?

Now, close down Disney World-and America WILL listen.

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.

---

by: Grace RN @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 13:37:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Actually...

A flu with pandemic potential in Mexico during spring break season is pretty bad in the first place.

---

by: Jonathan @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 13:41:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TRU DAT...

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.

---

by: Grace RN @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 14:00:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Textbook

I continually marvel at how things are developing almost as per a script for a wargames simulation, imagine some planner, nibbling on his pencil, thinking "Now, what would be a worst case scenario .. yeah, make an outbreak at Disney World during spring break"

---

by: nika @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 13:42:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yep

Now, I just hope that the real-life "worst case scenario" doesn't involve mutations/reassortments that result in increased lethality.  This is going to be bad enough as is.

---

by: Jonathan @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 13:51:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

% mutability

I am not a virologist so I dont have a sense for whether viruses are more unstable at certain points of its evolution or if its a steady state rate of change.

I had always assumed that viruses are continuously changing and thus capable of picking up resistance (losing) and the such.

I also do not know if a higher % chimeric nature results in a higher rate of change.  Perhaps the fact that this strain sources from 4 different origins may (?) lead to more intrinsic instability then it might accelerate % mutation (which could help it pck up resistance, virulence, or kill itself off into overly virulent dead ends like SARS and Ebola tends to do)

---

by: nika @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 14:00:55 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I seem to remember...

someone (Osterholm?) saying that this is an intrinsically unstable virus since it is so new and of such diverse origin.  I might be wrong though.

---

by: Okieman @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:10:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Connection

This is interesting because of news reports earlier in the week that a Disney World tourist, who had either recently traveled to Mexico or had close contact with someone from Mexico, had also reported flu-like symptoms.  Test results on that tourist are evidently still pending.

---

by: Jonathan @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 13:40:25 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Greenville is 25 miles to the north of me.

The outbreak at the Newberry Academy is 40 miles to the south of me. I am now surrounded. Very depressing.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 14:22:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

It's a Small World After All? nt

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 23:28:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Japanese woman travelling from US tests positive for influenza

Tokyo - A Japanese woman who arrived at Tokyo's airport from Los Angeles tested positive for influenza Thursday after Japan implemented measures to prevent an outbreak of swine flu, media reports said. The 25-year-old passenger was taken to hospital from Narita International Airport after a preliminary test showed symptoms of influenza such as coughing and runny nose, Jiji Press said.

The results from a thorough examination of the patient were expected Friday.

About 20 passengers seated near her on a Northwest airplane were to be taken to another facility. If the woman tests positive for swine flu, the others would be subjected to a 10-day quarantine, Jiji said.

There has been no reports of confirmed or suspected swine flu in Japan.

Mexico has been the worst-hit country in the recent swine-flu outbreak with 91 confirmed infections and eight deaths although 159 people have died there recently of the flu. The United States has reported one death and 64 infections.

Other countries reporting infections but no deaths are Canada, Britain, Spain, New Zealand, Germany, Israel, Austria, Switzerland and Peru.  

---

by: mercury john @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 13:43:56 PM UTC

Hi mercury john!

Can you please post the link to this article. I need it for the headlines update. Thanks.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 14:24:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

oops, sorry carol

http://www.earthtimes.org/arti...

japan seems to be doing well isolating and quarantining.

india, not so well.  it only takes one more region of H2H to go to phase 6.

---

by: mercury john @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:36:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks!

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:45:07 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Uhm - dumb question... We're worried about *just* a cough and runny nose now?

????

So we are we to be concerned with symptoms in the absence of fever?

---

by: Quartzman @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:40:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The airline crew probably noticed some symptoms

"Coughing and runny nose". They really aren't med pros, and didn't have a way to check the person't temp.
That's what Gawd invented doctors for...  ;-)

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by: Bronco Bill @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:52:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hi Quartzman

Usually when they say "flu like symptoms" it means fever, aching and a variety of other symptoms. From all that I have read and seen on TV in the past week it appears everyone who has contracted the swine flu has had a fever of more then 101 degrees and aching just like with seasonal flu. Not a dumb question at all....shows you are thinking and interested.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:55:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ok - thanks - that's reassuring.

Dear daughter has had a runny nose the last two mornings and today she started coughing, though that stopped once she woke up...

I checked her temp and she seemed in good spirits so I felt a good bit better... that is until I read that article. :P

---

by: Quartzman @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 16:01:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Congressional hearing

House energy subcommittee [? !] holding "emergency hearing" on flu, live on CNN, 1013 EDT.

This is not good.  These people have power - and no clue.  Of course, they are probably just grubbing for publicity, but...

---

by: SIPCT @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 14:32:34 PM UTC

Fort Worth Shutters All Schools;

WHO Warns of Likely Pandemic

The city of Fort Worth is shutting down its school system for 10 days in an effort to stop the spread of swine flu, even as top U.S. leaders warn parents not to take children whose schools are closed to daycare or their workplaces since doing so would offer the same potential for the virus to spread.

As global health authorities raised the alert level for the outbreak to one notch below a full-scale pandemic, the government of Mexico -- where the disease has been centered -- announced a five-day shutdown and urged businesses to close as well so people could stay home and stop transmitting the disease.

Appearing on television news shows this morning, Vice President Biden said he hoped U.S. employers "will be generous" in allowing parents to take time off to keep their children home if there has been a confirmed case of flu at their school. He repeated the administration's belief that closing the U.S.-Mexico border was an overly drastic step that would have little effect since the virus has already crossed into this country, and emphasized that hand-washing and other basic precautions remain the best ways to fight the disease.

(Snip) Biden also seemed to recommend against using mass transit, answering a question about whether he would advise his own family against flying to Mexico by saying: "I would tell members of my family -- and I have -- that I wouldn't go anywhere in confined places now. It's not just going into Mexico. If you're any place in a confined aircraft and one person sneezes, it goes all the way through the aircraft." But his office quickly issued a statement of clarification that seemed designed to narrow the warning, saying that Biden believes people should avoid unnecessary travel to Mexico, and "if they are sick, they should avoid airplanes and other confined public spaces, such as subways."

The 27-nation European Union today will consider a request from the government of France, where 30 possible cases of the virus are under investigation, to suspend all flights from member countries to Mexico. New cases of the virus were reported in Switzerland and Peru overnight, bringing the number of countries with known cases of the flu to nine. Continued: http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 14:34:24 PM UTC

WHO not raising to Level 6

Dr. Fukuda announces that WHO will not raise level to 6 at this time. (Breaking on FOX News)

---

by: sors @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:21:19 PM UTC

Platte County illness may be Missouri's first confirmed swine flu case

The patient is a person in Platte County but outside the Kansas City limits, the governor and other health officials said Wednesday night.

In hastily called press conferences, Gov. Jay Nixon and Platte County officials declined to identify the patient or provide any further information about the person.

The case was identified after the patient visited a doctor with flulike symptoms, Nixon said. The doctor performed a test and then referred the results to a state lab in Jefferson City. State officials performed another test and determined the flu strain was likely H1N1, known as swine flu.

Investigators will contact people who have been exposed to the patient, said Mary Jo Everhart, director of the Platte County Health Department.

Officials have sent the sample to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta for confirmation. That process should take about 48 hours... http://www.kansascity.com/105/...

(This is right outside the Kansas City, MO city limits, but within the greater metro area.  Something to keep an eye out for...)

---

by: marele86 @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:23:30 PM UTC

Colorado reports 2 confirmed cases

The Colorado Department of Health confirmed Thursday that Colorado has two confirmed cases of Swine flu.

Chief Medical Officer Ned Calonge of the Colorado Department of Public Health and Environment scheduled a news conference at 10:30 a.m. to discuss the development. TheDenverChannel will livestream the news conference.

http://www.thedenverchannel.co...

---

by: sors @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:32:29 PM UTC

Info on 2 cases in Colorado

The state's chief medical officer, Ned Calonge, said at the press conference that one of the people was an Arapahoe County woman who took a cruise to Mexico and then spent some time in San Diego.

He said the second was a baggage handler at Denver International Airport, who has been hospitalized for three days. Calonge said the man should be released today.

http://www.denverpost.com/ci_1...

---

by: TooMuchAnxietyGirl @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:31:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mexico orders shutdown to slow swine flu

Excerpt:

"experts continued to caution that the swine flu in the United States has largely been limited to very mild cases. Most of the people who have developed swine flu have recovered quickly. But experts warn that once the virus spreads to Asia and countries like Indonesia, where bird flu is endemic, the virus could reassort itself once again. A new reassortment introducing avian flu strains could lead to a virus that's more lethal than swine flu and easily spread among people."

"If it goes to Egypt, Indonesia, these H5N1 endemic regions, it could turn into a very powerful H5N1 that is very transmissible among people," said Guan Yi, a microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong. "Then we will be in trouble, it will be a tragedy." http://www.fiercebiotech.com/s...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:40:14 PM UTC

interesting part of the story

"If it goes to Egypt, Indonesia, these H5N1 endemic regions, it could turn into a very powerful H5N1 that is very transmissible among people," said Guan Yi, a microbiologist at the University of Hong Kong. "Then we will be in trouble, it will be a tragedy."

This last part is likely what all the epidem people have been thinking about since early on.

---

by: nika @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:43:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

yay.

I don't know how to add anymore sarcasm to a single word other than to give it a period.

---

by: Quartzman @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:47:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Suspected cases of SI increase to sixteen in S. Korea

http://english.hani.co.kr/arti...

(still apparently not confirmed by CDC for some reason)

More and more suspected cases of swine influenza are appearing in South Korea. Health authorities were examining another sixteen individuals Wednesday to see if they were infected with the strain. And with the confirmation of contagion between individuals in New York, health authorities are also taking steps toward preventing "secondary infection" by giving the antiviral drug Tamiflu to 48 individuals with a high probability of contact with individuals presumed to be infected.

The Ministry for Health, Welfare and Family Affairs' Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), announced Wednesday that they were examining sixteen of the twenty individuals who reported symptoms of acute respiratory disease such as fever and coughing following a visit to Mexico or the United States. The suspected individuals were isolated in their homes and given Tamiflu. They include a 52-year-old man and 29-year-old woman who had visited Mexico, and a 16-year-old young man, 27-year-old man and 15-month-old girl who had visited the U.S. The remaining four individuals tested negative, and their conditions were confirmed to be unrelated to swine influenza.

A 51-year-old female resident of Gyeonggi Province who was judged a "probable" infection case Tuesday was in improved condition, CDC Center for Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response head Jeon Byeong-yul said. In order to prevent "secondary infection" between individuals, the CDC delivered Tamiflu to eight people who were seated within two meters of the woman on the plane back from Mexico and to 40 more who interact with her regularly. Investigation was completed for 125 of the 338 people on board the plane, but none of them were suspected of being infected, it was announced.

With this spread in concerns about swine influenza, sanitary products are flying off the shelves at distributors. The Shinsegae E-mart reported Wednesday that sales of antibacterial hand soap and hand disinfectant for the three days from April 25 to 27 increased 35% from the same period the previous week. Sales of mouthwash and face masks also increased by 19% and 5%, respectively. Lotte Mart also reported sales increases of 11% for hand soap, 9% for mouthwash and 3% for face masks compared to the same period the previous week.  

---

by: mercury john @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 15:45:56 PM UTC

Toddler who died of swine flu visited Houston mall

 

Posted: Apr 30, 2009 11:55 AM EDT
Updated: Apr 30, 2009 11:56 AM EDT
http://www.wave3.com/Global/st...

McALLEN, TX (AP) - A Mexico City toddler who became the first swine-flu death on U.S. soil spent a day with his family shopping at a huge Houston indoor mall the day before he began to show symptoms.

Cameron County Judge Carlos Cascos says the Brownsville family with whom the toddler was staying said they spent three nights in Houston just before he fell ill.

Hospital and health officials said Wednesday that the 23-month old Mexico City boy arrived in Brownsville on April 4 and was hospitalized four days later. They said he had no outside contact once he was hospitalized. The family has shown no symptoms.

---

by: Pixie @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 16:32:45 PM UTC

NJ Suspected Cases

http://www.nj.com/news/index.s...
N.J. awaits confirmation of seven swine-flu cases
by Carly Rothman and Susan K. Livio/The Star-Ledger Thursday April 30, 2009, 5:14 AM

The number of probable swine-flu cases in New Jersey increased Wednesday to seven and state health officials opened a 24-hour hotline to field questions from residents and health-care providers.

"There is obviously cause for concern, but not cause for alarm," Health and Senior Services commissioner Heather Howard said during a news conference in Trenton where the hotline number, 1-866-321-9571, was announced.

Howard added that New Jersey should expect more cases, "given how internationally connected our state is."

Susan Walsh, deputy commissioner of the New Jersey Department of Health and Senior Services, said all seven of the state's probable cases had "travel associations" with Mexico and California.

None of the seven patients was hospitalized, Walsh said. She declined to say where they are from, other than "across the state." She also said none of New Jersey's probable cases involved schools.

Three of the cases appear to come from Vineland and Cumberland County in southern New Jersey, according to a report in the Daily Journal. Herb Roeschke, public health coordinator for Cumberland and Salem counties, told the newspaper three samples were sent to the state Wednesday morning, one from a county health department and two from the Vineland Health Department.

Also, Hunterdon County health officials Wednesday said they were for test results on their second and third suspected cases of swine flu this week, according to a report in The Express-Times. "Hunterdon County residents should note that we already investigated our first suspected case of swine flu (Monday), which tested negative for swine flu," John Buckley, director of the county health department, said in a statement, according to the report.

New Jersey's two most recent samples of probable swine flu were sent for testing to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Results from the five samples sent earlier this week were expected soon, health officials said.

A "suspected" swine flu case is one in which the patient exhibits flu symptoms and has had contact with an affected person or area. A "probable" case is when preliminary laboratory tests rule out other flu strains. Only the CDC can identify which cases are indeed swine flu, Walsh said.

State epidemiologist Tina Tan said it is too soon to say whether swine flu will be more severe than seasonal flu.

"We haven't seen this strain before, so we can't type it," Tan said. Also unclear is the incubation period, she added.

The state has stockpiled 1.1 million five-day treatments of Tamiflu, which can weaken the severity of the illness, Walsh said.

"The seasonal flu shot is not effective," she said.

Stephen Smith, an infectious-disease specialist at Saint Michael's Medical Center in Newark, noted wearing surgical masks won't protect wearers from contracting the disease, explaining the masks are designed to prevent the wearer from infecting others.

Echoing the advice of health officials nationwide, Smith said a person's best defense is to cover up coughs and sneezes, stay home from work or school if feeling ill, and -- most of all -- "wash your hands, wash your hands, wash your hands."  

---

by: NJ. Preppie @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 16:47:02 PM UTC

news reports?

Unfortunately having seived through this latest batch there is very little that could be called news and much that could be called whipping up hysteria/media hype etc.
Unless there are some serious numbers declared, with some evidence to back it, this is getting like the UFO spotters blog site.

 Man occasionally stumbles over the truth.  Most of the time though, he manages to pick himself up and carry on as if nothing had happened.

Winston S Churchill


JK

---

by: jake6257 @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:02:38 PM UTC

What are you looking for?

Go to Google News and do a search for Flu.  There are tens of thousands of news reports right now, with hundreds more per hour.  It's impossible to keep up at this point.

I receive text messages from the Veratect Twitter feed, and I'm literally getting text messages with flu news every few seconds.

Right now, it's kinda a given that the H1N1 flu is spreading everywhere.  The only real questions right now are 1) an accurate CFR for the current virus and 2) whether the virus will become more/less lethal.

---

by: Jonathan @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:09:39 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

confirmed cases not news?

while hysteria is an important social aspect to follow and observe, as that can likely have a more severe impact than this current version of H1N1, i think it's important to track the cases.  especially those in a remaining WHO regions, as that criteria will cause a shift to pandemic level 6.  certain regulatory responses of importance occur at that shift point.

---

by: mercury john @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:17:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

ramfications

do you have any links for a listing of what sorts of things/actions/agencies etc get activated upon the declaration of Phase 6?

---

by: nika @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:24:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

it varies on location and agency

i live in NYC and the Mayor will then be able to stop public events, close all schools, regualate who gets medication, etc.

State is slightly different as is Federal.

---

by: mercury john @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:29:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

harmonization

there must be some level of harmonization or does state trump fed?

Also, do you know whether or not military can be involved in enforcement of isolation/quarantine or does that require some higher level of martial law.  Or is martial law implicit in Pandemic phase 6 response by feds/states?

---

by: nika @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:33:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

good questions

i'm looking into that actually.  don't know yet.

the 264 page document makes no mention of military.  but fed trumps state, which trumps city.  the NYC document can be found on nyc.gov titled cd-panflu-plan.pdf

it's quite well done, but designed for H5N1.

posse comatus prevents military actions on US soil unless martial law is declared.

---

by: mercury john @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:48:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm not so convinced that posse comitatus is being observed

I think posse comitatus is  a bit up in the air since the Oct 1 2008 deployment of a US Army unit on US soil.

google posse comitatus and the date & you'll get lots of info. Sum is that martial law is not required.  

---

by: hornblower @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:05:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fed Supremacy Not Really Applicable Here

While restrictions on federal military activities have been thinned out over the past few years, the Feds will play a supporting role unless and until all hell breaks loose.

They are front and center now because their role is the hottest one right now.

The Feds main role is watching, communicating what they see, coordinating, establishing policies and strategies pursuant to which they can recommend and suggest in an attempt to fascilitate a relatively consistent national approach.  

Most of the governmental protective or responsive actions for pandemics are state-based or local and use primarily state and local resources.

I have as much worry in these circumstances with the lack of federal authority as I ususally do with its excess.

I am a big fan of tinfoil hats when they fit.

Here, so far, not so much.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 23:38:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't think anyone is whipping up hysteria here on this blog.

News stories are gathered as fast as they can be found, and posted with links. Opinions about what's going on are stated as such. Rumours are put in a different diary. People are free to comment, speculate and opine on these news articles at will,and much valuable insights are gleaned that way, with the expert mods coming in to shed light on the more technical aspects as needed. It's a blog, not a newspaper or strictly news gathering site, thus IMO your comparison of it with a "UFO spotters blog" is unfair: What would you do different?

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 04:48:11 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

In 29 states

Heard on Fox News.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

---

by: Oremus @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:13:57 PM UTC

No it's not a given.

H1N1 one has been around since at least 1918.  This may be a new variant of an old theme but news reports nowadays start by stating a fact and then get on to tell you that it's only suspected or speculation.

According to the FAO there is no evidence that it is pig flu at all, yet everyone calls it swine flu.

 Man occasionally stumbles over the truth.  Most of the time though, he manages to pick himself up and carry on as if nothing had happened.

Winston S Churchill


JK

---

by: jake6257 @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:16:02 PM UTC

It is a novel new virus

The H1N1 designation for one virus doesn't mean it's identical to another H1N1 virus.  There are over 1600 DNA base pairs in the HA and 1400 pairs in the NA genes.  That's a lot of variation.

The fact that no one's seen this virus before is not speculation.

Several virologists have done analyses of the new H1N1 virus genome...here's one:  http://platform.gisaid.org/dan...

Long story short: there are several genes in the virus that came from viruses that infect swine.

As far as it spreading everywhere, there are confirmed cases popping up all over the world.  I'd say that's a pretty good indicator that it is, indeed, spreading everywhere.

---

by: Jonathan @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:24:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

many thnx!

Thnx for that link - I have been hoping to find this sort of info soon, appreciate it.

---

by: nika @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:27:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

To be clear...

...That's simply a family tree of the various versions of the HA gene found in viruses designated "H1".  There are seven more :)  But I provided it as an illustration of the variants of the gene found in H1 viruses.

---

by: Jonathan @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:32:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

got it

thnx :-) its a start

---

by: nika @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:33:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

sometimes it's hard for people to understand

about all the different H1N1s.  The other day, I ended up saying, it's like with dog breeds.  If you have a, say, cocker spaniel, you KNOW that your cocker spaniel is different from other cocker spaniels, and that it shares more similar genes with its cousins than some other cocker spaniels bred from totally different ancestors/pedigree.  ;-)



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:35:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

FAO said human "crisis" not from pigs. Not "virus"

We are not catching it directly from pigs.

That's the first big take-away from the FAO report.

In what animal species or human was this cocktail blended?

That's a different story.  Jury still out on that - and FAO is looking into it.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 23:41:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

RE: illinois

State swine flu cases rise to 17
April 30, 2009 11:14 AM | No Comments | UPDATED STORY
State health authorities are reporting a total of 17 probable swine flu cases, up from nine Wednesday, a spokeswoman confirmed.
There were 17 probable cases statewide as of 10 a.m., said Illinois Department of Public Health spokeswoman Melanie Arnold.
http://www.chicagobreakingnews...

---

by: Ruth @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:18:20 PM UTC

Hospital treats three suspected bird flu patients

Hat-tip bgw in MT:

Andi Hajramurni , The Jakarta Post , Makassar
hu, 04/30/2009 3:14 PM
http://www.thejakartapost.com/...

Wahidin Sudirohusodo Hospital in Makassar, South Sulawesi, has over the past week been treating three patients from Nipa-nipa, Manggala district, suffering from an illness with bird flu-like symptoms.

Hospital medical director Abdul Kadir confirmed Wednesday the patients had high fevers of up to 39 degrees Celsius when they were admitted to the hospital. They were also coughing and feared to be infected by the H5N1 virus.

"Before they fell ill, several chickens in their neighborhoods suddenly died from suspected bird flu. That's why these people were admitted to hospital to get special treatment according to standard bird flu procedures," Kadir said.

He added blood samples from two of the patients, who are children, had been sent to the research and development lab at the Health Ministry in Jakarta for analysis.

As of Wednesday, the conditions of the three patients, who are being treated at the isolation ward, had improved, with their temperatures stabilizing, but hospital authorities will keep them in isolation pending the test results.

"Their conditions have improved, but we have not yet allowed them to go home and they still have to be isolated," Kadir said.

Wahidin Sudirohusodo Hospital has treated five suspected bird flu patients between January and April this year, two of whom, from Bone regency, South Sulawesi, were found not to have been infected.

Between 2005 and April this year, hospitals in the province have treated a total of 130 patients suspected of being infected with bird flu. Only one of them, who tested positive for the virus, later died.

Hospital director Andi Nursyanti Sapada said medicine supplies and equipment, including protective gear for medical workers, were still sufficient for the moment. She added beds were limited because the hospital only has 10 beds available in the special ward. She also said the construction of a building to accommodate patients suffering from infectious disease, including bird flu, was in its finishing stages.

On Tuesday, the Jember regency administration in East Java announced the bird flu virus had spread to 17 of its 31 districts.

---

by: Pixie @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 17:36:10 PM UTC

WHO H1N1 update 6

http://www.who.int/csr/don/200...

30 April 2009 -- The situation continues to evolve rapidly. As of 17:00 GMT, 30 April 2009, 11 countries have officially reported 257 cases of influenza A (H1N1) infection.

The United States Government has reported 109 laboratory confirmed human cases, including one death. Mexico has reported 97 confirmed human cases of infection, including seven deaths.

The following countries have reported laboratory confirmed cases with no deaths - Austria (1), Canada (19), Germany (3), Israel (2), Netherlands (1), New Zealand (3), Spain (13), Switzerland (1) and the United Kingdom (8).

Further information on the situation will be available on the WHO website on a regular basis.

WHO advises no restriction of regular travel or closure of borders. It is considered prudent for people who are ill to delay international travel and for people developing symptoms following international travel to seek medical attention, in line with guidance from national authorities.

There is also no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products. Individuals are advised to wash hands thoroughly with soap and water on a regular basis and should seek medical attention if they develop any symptoms of influenza-like illness.  

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

---

by: Oremus @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:00:15 PM UTC

UK confirms 8 cases

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/...

plus play the video to see the 'catch it, bin it. kill it' video

David

---

by: dawood @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:03:46 PM UTC

Swine flu: Italy girds for pandemic as pork sales fall

Rome, 30 April (AKI) - A team of chemists, pharmaceutical experts and public health officials are rushing to make available 30 million doses of anti-viral drugs amid fears the swine flu virus will reach Italy. The operation will involve "about a dozen" people, including civilians and soldiers, according to Giocondo Santoni, director of the Italian military's chemical and pharmacological research institute where the anti-viral doses will be made up.

"We are all set and will begin preparing the doses in the next few days. We will produce around 70,000 capsules per day," Santoni told Adnkronos. "In actual fact, we've been ready since 2006, when the bird flu emergency struck," he said. Tamiflu, the anti-viral drug to be rolled out in preparation for swine flu, is the same drug that has been used to treat cases of bird flu.

Italy's health and defence ministries ordered the production of the anti-viral doses in response to the World Health Organisation's director-general Margaret Chan's raising of the alert for swine flu to the second highest alert level - five - meaning WHO believes a global outbreak of the disease is imminent.

Chan said all countries should immediately activate their pandemic preparedness plans, including heightened surveillance, early detection and treatment of cases, and infection control.

As of Thursday, there were 236 confirmed cases of swine flu in 13 countries across four continents. The highest number of confirmed cases was in Mexico - the source of the disease - where there were 97 confirmed cases including 7 deaths out of 168 suspected deaths. Continued: http://www.adnkronos.com/AKI/E...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:03:48 PM UTC

University of London virologist

warns of risk of 'Armageddon' mixed virus

The swine flu virus could transform into a more serious "Armageddon virus" if it mixes with avian flu which is circulating in southeast Asia, a leading virologist said on Wednesday.

Health officials believe it is only a matter of time before swine flu reaches countries where avian flu is endemic, raising the prospect of the viruses merging into a lethal strain.

John Oxford, a virologist at Queen Mary, University of London, said an Armageddon virus was a worst-case scenario, but could not be ruled out. "My concern is that in the rush and worry over pig flu, we forget about avian flu. There's a temptation for everyone to stampede in response to the immediate threat and take their eye off bird flu and that could easily bounce back to bite us," he said.
(Snip)
This year, the bird flu virus, known as H5N1, has infected seven people in China and killed four. All three people who contracted the virus in Vietnam this year have died. A further 16 cases have been reported in Egypt, though none have been fatal.

The swine and avian flu viruses could merge if both infect the same animal at the same time. The most lethal result could be a virus that is as infectious as swine flu and as deadly as avian flu. If the swine virus does change dramatically as it spreads, it will cause an even greater headache for manufacturers who are already expecting to face difficult decisions over which vaccine to prioritize. Most companies have just begun making seasonal flu vaccine for the winter, but may have to stop. http://www.taipeitimes.com/New...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:13:18 PM UTC

Swine flu: first probable case of person to person transmission in Britain

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/hea...

Britain's swine flu outbreak has reached a tipping point with the first probable case to have been transmitted in this country.

Graeme Pacitti, a friend of the Scottish newlyweds who caught the virus while on honeymoon in Mexico, has tested positive for the same type of infection.

Further tests have been carried out to determine the precise strain of the disease but Scotland's chief medical officer admitted that it is more likely than not to be swine flu.

Nicola Sturgeon, the Scottish health minister, said that, if confirmed, it would be the first case of the virus being transmitted from person to person in Britain.

Ian and Dawn Askham, the couple who were Britain's first confirmed swine flu cases, were released from Monklands Hospital in Airdrie, Lanarkshire, on Thursday having made a full recovery.

Mr Pacitti, is a member of Mr Askham's six-a-side football team and fell ill after spending a night out with him and other team members at a pub in Falkirk on Thursday last week.

The 24-year-old initially tested negative for Type A flu, the strain that includes swine flu, but has since continued to feel unwell.

At a press conference in Edinburgh, Miss Sturgeon said a further test had been conducted and this time the results had come back positive.

Asked if it was the first person-to-person case in Britain, she said: "If it is confirmed, yes it would be. As things stands just now, that would be the case."

One man in Ireland has also tested positive for swine flu, it was announced.

Mr Pacitti, a clerical worker for Forth Valley health board, has been prescribed Tamiflu, an antiviral drug, and is quarantined at Falkirk home with his mother Lesley, her partner, and his 18-year-old brother Alan.

In an interview with the Daily Telegraph, he said: "It is just typical flu. I have a sore throat, a sore head and an upset stomach. I am just waiting to be re-tested again and hope to get more information later today.

"I have been told to stay at home and my mother, her partner and my brother are also in the house."

Mr Pacitti works at Falkirk Royal Hospital and is the goalkeeper for FC Mallard, the team that had to cancel a game this week after three team members went out drinking with Mr Askham.

He said he was delighted that Mr and Mrs Askham were well and had been discharged from hospital and was encouraged by the fact they had recovered so quickly.

Mr Pacitti was one of ten close contacts of the Askhams who complained of "cold-like" symptoms after the couple's return from the Mexican resort of Cancun last week.

Dr Harry Burns, Scotland's chief medical officer, said he was not concerned that Mr Pacitti's first test had produced a "false negative" result.

He said that the initial swab may have been taken when the virus was not growing in the victim's throat.

Type A flu is rare in the summer months, he added, and it was "more likely than less likely" that Mr Pacitti will test positive for swine flu.

Miss Sturgeon said the monitoring procedures being followed meant that a close eye was kept on the close contacts of victims to see if they developed symptoms.

Of the 32 cases under investigation in Scotland on Wednesday, she said 26 had so far tested negative for Type A flu or were not showing the relevant symptoms.

A further 21 new cases were being tested, bringing the Scottish total of possible or probable cases to 28, including Mr Pacitti.

Earlier, Alex Salmond, the Scottish First Minister, had reported another probable swine flu case in Glasgow but this was later downgraded after a second test came back negative.  

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:26:12 PM UTC

We know all about false negatives, don't we. n/t

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:27:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mexico City may reopen public spaces

From the Wall Street Journal:

"Mexico City, the country's economic engine, has been running at less than half-speed since the government declared an emergency Friday. Local business associations calculate that businesses here are losing more than $100 million a day due to the forced closings. Industry groups have petitioned Mexico City Mayor Marcelo Ebrard to reconsider his decision to close bars, discos and restaurants until after Tuesday's Cinco de Mayo celebration."

The doctor said his greatest concern now is the economic impact of the epidemic. "I'm really worried about the effect this is having on the economy at a time like this," he said, referring to the global recession.

---

by: banshee @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:30:48 PM UTC

Interesting bit from the same article

"Officials don't have a definite idea of where the outbreak began. On Wednesday, Dr. Lezana said that among the first victims was a Bangladeshi man who worked as a street vendor in Mexico City and got sick in early April. The man, whose identity wasn't disclosed, met his brother in Merida, Yucatan, in early April and returned to Mexico City. His brother, who is either from Bangladesh or Pakistan, may have been ill, he said."

---

by: banshee @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:32:28 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hi Banshee

Can you give me the link to this article? Thanks.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 19:28:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Big Risks With Too-Early Recission of Community Mitigation

We'll have to dig some of that discussion, historical research and modeling out, but there are big risks with premature recession of community mitigation efforts.  

Like opening a door to a room in which the fire has almost gone out because of lack of oxygen.  

Big Bwoooof.  Look, singed hair and no eyebrows.    

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 23:46:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Now there is a comment I can find total agreement with!!

I was just thinking about how Mexico is now saying that the # of cases and deaths there have been leveling off, and they think the "worst is over", whereas the fact that they closed the schools, malls, sporting events and businesses may be an integral part of the reason for this slowing trend. So why so quickly change something that's obviously working? (Money, of course, always that.) But it may turn out to be a big (and very costly) mistake.

Also, the lowering death rate is probably at least in part due to greater vigilance in catching the cases early and treating with tamiflu than was done the first week or so, before this strain was identified and controls put in.

The bad news is, if it is vigilance and tamiflu intervention that is key to keeping the cfr down, then how might that change as more and more people become ill, overwhelming health care systems so that such early intervention and treatment becomes less and less possible not just there, but elsewhere.

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 05:13:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If (When) The Surge Comes It Will Bring A Great Leveling

The bad news is, if it is vigilance and tamiflu intervention that is key to keeping the cfr down, then how might that change as more and more people become ill, overwhelming health care systems so that such early intervention and treatment becomes less and less possible not just there, but elsewhere.

This is just an excellent point.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 18:12:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Two probable cases in San Mateo County, California

From the San Jose Mercury:

San Mateo County has its first two probable cases of swine flu, health officials report today.

The county's health agency has not released any information about the cases, but officials have scheduled a news conference later this morning to talk about the situation.

---

by: silence @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:33:45 PM UTC

Obama security team member has suspected case of swine flu

http://www.orlandosentinel.com...

A member of the security team for President Obama's recent trip to Mexico is suspected of having contracted the swine flu, the Washington Post is reporting, citing a senior White House official.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:33:55 PM UTC

...and he might have transmitted it to his family.

I'm guessing that everyone in the White House, the White House Press Corps and Congress are all on a nice robust dose of Tamiflu.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/

---

by: banshee @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:44:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry, direct link to WP story

http://www.washingtonpost.com/...

---

by: banshee @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:50:45 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maplecroft Flu Pandemic Maps Reveal Countries Most at Risk- Britain Ranks Top for Risk of Spread

http://ca.sys-con.com/node/943654

LONDON, April 30 PRNewswire -- With swine flu topping the agenda of business around the world, global risks specialist, Maplecroft has released three new maps and indices revealing the countries most at risk from an influenza pandemic.

The Influenza Pandemic Risk Index (IPRI) consists of three categories: Risk of Emergence, Risk of Spread and Capacity to Contain. Each index generates a list of countries most at risk and that require a tailored policy response on the part of government and business. Maplecroft's research focuses on global risks to business.

The map of Risk of Spread shows the United Kingdom most at risk to the spread of an influenza pandemic, ranking number 1 out of 213 countries. The Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Russia, Canada and Japan are also categorised as extreme risk because of their high population density, urbanisation and busy airports.

Even though the UK and other developed Western nations are at extreme risk of spread, their capacity to contain influenza pandemics ranks low risk. Large stockpiling of drugs and a sophisticated health infrastructure, which the Capacity to Contain index captures, means they have very effective measures with which to fight human influenza.

Sub-Saharan Africa stands out as the area least able to contain pandemic influenza with 27 out of the 30 most extreme risk countries. The capacity of a country to contain the spread of human influenza depends on factors of wealth, health infrastructure, education resources, information and communication networks, and governance.

The Risk of Emergence index unsurprisingly categorises Mexico as extreme risk and ranks the country as fourth most at risk, whilst Vietnam, China and Bangladesh top the table.

[snip]

For free access to the three IPRI maps and risk categories: http://www.global-risks.com/ma...

Web: http://www.global-risks.com

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:43:12 PM UTC

Oregon's first [probable] swine flu case found in Multnomah County

http://www.sandypost.com/news/...

A woman in Multnomah County is the state's first probable case of swine flu, Oregon health officials said Thursday morning.

The Oregon State Public Health Laboratory discovered the case late Wednesday after a test.

Health officials said that three other samples were submitted for testing and likely would show up as the H1N1 virus, known as swine flu.

"The swine flu is here," said Dr. Mel Kohn, the state public health officer. "So our job is do what we can to respond and protect the people."

The woman, who was not hospitalized and is recovering normally, had contact with someone who had recently traveled to Mexico and been exposed to the swine flu there, he said. [snip]

"It is very likely that this test will be confirmed by the final step of laboratory testing," Kohn said. "So we are not waiting - we are treating this as a case of swine flu." [snip]

Dr. Gary Oxman, the health officer for Multnomah, Clackamas and Washington counties, said the woman became ill Sunday, April 26, after some contact with an ill person in Mexico. She went to work in the area one day and then stayed home with typical flu symptoms, he said. (continued)

---

by: AlohaOR @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:54:27 PM UTC

First Probable Case in NH

http://www.wmur.com/health/193...

CONCORD, N.H. -- Health officials said Thursday that a probable case of the swine flu has been detected in New Hampshire.

Gov. John Lynch said that an employee of Concord Hospital showed symptoms of the disease. Test results were expected to be back by the end of the day Friday.

State officials said the employee had not gone to work, and they don't believe others at the hospital were exposed. Dr. Jose Montero, the state's public health director, said the employee had not been in Mexico.

"The state and the hospital are taking all necessary precautions to protect the patients, the staff and the visitors to the hospital," Lynch said. "And we at this time have no reason to believe that the patients and staff are at risk."

---

by: ColdClimatePrepper @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 18:56:53 PM UTC

2nd and 3rd probable cases in NH

News conference happening now on WMUR.
They are mentioning the third possible case, but its not up on the website yet.

Cases number 2 and 3 are health care workers and Concord Hospital.  Investigation of possible exposures is ongoing.

http://www.wmur.com/health/193...

---

by: ColdClimatePrepper @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 21:15:44 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

WH tap dances over Biden comments

....GIBBS:  Well, I think the -- what the vice president meant to say was the same thing that, begun, many members have said in the last few days.  And that is if you feel sick, if you are exhibiting symptoms -- flu-like symptoms, coughing sneezing, runny nose, that you should take precautions, that you should limit your travel, and I think he just -- what he said and what he meant to say.

TAPPER [ABC News]:  With all due respect, I sympathize with you trying to explain the vice president's comments, but that's not even remotely close to what he said.  He was asked about if a members of his family...

GIBBS:  Look, I understand what he said, and I'm telling you what he meant to say, which was that... (LAUGHTER BY REPORTERS)  ... if somebody is experiencing symptoms -- you heard the president say this last night -- if somebody is feeling sick, if somebody is exhibiting symptoms of being sick, then they should take all necessary precautions.  Obviously, if anybody was unduly alarmed for whatever reason, we -- we would apologize for that.  And I hope that my remarks and remarks of people at CDC and Secretary Napolitano have appropriately cleared up what he meant to say....

http://blogs.abcnews.com/polit...

---

by: banshee @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 19:01:19 PM UTC

dumb comment

politicians should leave commenting on this topic to bloggers. We are much more responsible. ;-P

---

by: DemFromCT @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 23:58:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"dumb comment" -- Biden's or Gibbs's? n/t

---

by: ssal @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 00:19:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Biden's was

let's just say it was off message and distracted from what they were trying to do.

---

by: DemFromCT @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 03:00:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Which is what? n/t

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by: Influentia2 @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 03:58:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

convey seriosulness of purpose

without overreacting like Biden did.

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by: DemFromCT @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 16:37:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks

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by: Influentia2 @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 03:05:03 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

But...

at least we now know what the Vice President is telling his family members.  Revealing?

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by: Okieman @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 00:23:18 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

now that's true!!!

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by: DemFromCT @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 03:00:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Eight Possible Cases of Swine Flu Found in El Paso

By Erica Molina Johnson/El Paso Times
April 30, 2009, http://www.elpasotimes.com/new...
El Paso City's Department of Public Health Director Michael Hill confirmed today that eight possible cases of swine of flu have been found in El Paso.  Samples from the eight individuals have been sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for confirmation, Hill said.  The eight cases did not even meet the state's criteria for probable cases, but he said they were unusual enough to warrant further scrutiny.

"There's no reason to get excited," Hill said. "People should still be doing the same thing, washing your hands and covering your mouth when you sneeze."

He did not have details about the eight people. Only that they were from the around the El Paso area. The eight will be asked to self quarantine for seven days, he said.

"I am opposed to any form of tyranny over the mind of man."  Thomas Jefferson

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by: History Lover @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 19:27:20 PM UTC

First Confirmed San Francisco Case

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

(04-30) 12:04 PDT San Francisco -- San Francisco has its first confirmed case of swine flu, a child who recently traveled to Mexico, the city's public health director announced this morning.

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by: AaronC @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 19:35:41 PM UTC

Ca-Rap... Going there on Sunday... n/t

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by: Quartzman @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 21:19:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

NH Second Probable Case

CONCORD, N.H. -- A second probable case of swine flu, or H1N1, has been detected in New Hampshire.

Gov. John Lynch and the Department of Health and Human Services said Thursday that another possible case of the H1N1 virus has been detected. A 5 p.m. news conference was planned, and no details were immediately released.

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by: Katie Bird @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 19:45:25 PM UTC

Henry Neiman from recombinomics comments

He was just on the radio for a good bit and said he is expecting it to mirror what 1918 did in that it may stay mild for now but come the fall it will combine with human H1N1 and become highly virulent.  He kinda sidestepped numbers for what a worst case could be.  He basically said it would be worst case if there is no treatment due to drug resistance in current human H1N1 combining with swine varient and a lack of vaccine.  

He gave a really good interview.  The talking heads on the radio are a bit in over their heads on this and he corrected several misconceptions.  

On the local radio they are reporting a potential recovered case in center city Philadelphia and one in the burbs 30 mins away.  Wouldn't surprise me in the least considering we are surrounded.

Carry the torch, not to light the way, but to set your peers on fire!

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by: Annoyed Max--Not mad yet @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 19:57:31 PM UTC

Do you know where I could possibly find a link to the audio?

I'd like to listen for my own education.

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by: Andrzejek @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 20:44:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

no idea

He was on Sean Hannity.  They might have a pod cast somewhere.

Carry the torch, not to light the way, but to set your peers on fire!

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by: Annoyed Max--Not mad yet @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 01:07:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

link to interview with Niman

this is an interview from a few days ago, but regarding swine flu.

here... http://www.wpxi.com/video/1931...

another, shorter but excellent interview with Laurie Garret (The Coming Plague)

here...
http://www.cnn.com/video/#/vid...

Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little- Edmund Burke

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by: MaMa @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 03:23:57 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Avian flu

Jonathan I am well aware that there are 1600 pairs de dah de dah.

I am a scientist myself and I tend to look for evidence not speculation.  Most of this thread is about probable casesi.e speculation.

The mapping of the genome idicates that those particular virons were of the type associated with a swine flu. Do we know that that is the same as the Mexican virus, NO.

So it's all speculation.
Even if they have RNA associated with swine they have more avian RNA jrnce the designation a H1N1

 Man occasionally stumbles over the truth.  Most of the time though, he manages to pick himself up and carry on as if nothing had happened.

Winston S Churchill


JK

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by: jake6257 @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 19:59:48 PM UTC

actually, in the contect of this outbreak

"probable" as defined by CDC is more than mere guesswork.

A probable case of S-OIV infection is defined as a person with an acute febrile respiratory illness who is positive for influenza A, but negative for H1 and H3 by influenza RT-PCR

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by: DemFromCT @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 03:03:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

most of these will be positive (not all) n/t

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by: DemFromCT @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 03:04:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Comparison

NCBI/GISAID have roughly 35 genome samples of this particular virus from Mexico and elsewhere.  Most aren't complete; only two (A/California/04/2009 and A/California/06/2009) are complete sequences of all 8 genes.  The other sequences listed are partial, but the genes that are listed are virtually identical with minimal base pair differences.

Interestingly, the 24 site differences between A/California/04/2009 and A/California/06/2009 has led at least one researcher to conclude this virus has been around since 2008 or earlier:

http://tree.bio.ed.ac.uk/group...

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by: Jonathan @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 03:31:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Maybe there is a Scientific site that confines itself to strictly hard evidence

sans speculation that would meet your needs. Please let me know if you find it, I'd love to learn the truth myself: It's so annoying to not know.

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 05:24:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ellisville, MO suspected to have the flu

http://www.stltoday.com/blogzo...

Mom brought him home from Chicago when he got sick.  Chicago Health Dept. said prelim tests show he has the funk.

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by: Tedpower @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 20:15:56 PM UTC

Another potential case in Missouri

http://www.kansascity.com/842/...

MO Dept. of Health says NW Missouri victim was going to a Nebraska health facility for a non-flu health reason and got sick on the way.

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by: Tedpower @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 20:24:36 PM UTC

Scientists see this flu strain as relatively mild

...But mounting preliminary evidence from genetics labs, epidemiology models and simple mathematics suggests that the worst-case scenarios are likely to be avoided in the current outbreak.
"This virus doesn't have anywhere near the capacity to kill like the 1918 virus," which claimed an estimated 50 million victims worldwide, said Richard Webby, a leading influenza virologist at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tenn....

..."There are certain characteristics, molecular signatures, which this virus lacks," said Peter Palese, a microbiologist and influenza expert at Mt. Sinai Medical Center in New York. In particular, the swine flu lacks an amino acid that appears to increase the number of virus particles in the lungs and make the disease more deadly....

http://www.latimes.com/feature...

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by: banshee @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 20:57:42 PM UTC

This could be very good news. n/t

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by: banshee @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 20:58:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

good news?

Banshee, It could, but are they saying anything different from what the WHO already know about the virus? The sequences were released on Mon, yet the level was raised yesterday. It doesn't seem the WHO could have missed the sequences being released, nor that they would ignore new findings. It may just be the 2nd wave WHO/CDC are most worried about, and they are trying to get everything into place. Who knows. There are so many conflicting reports.

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by: wikimetoo @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 22:27:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

WHO raised the level based on

reports of geographic spread, not on the sequences.

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by: DemFromCT @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 23:57:12 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dem, Could you talk more...

about the article above? The doc from St. Jude, I think it was, talked about already knowing the virus didn't show the capacity to be a lethal in it's current state, based on what they were seeing. I know the virus could mutate at anytime, but what was the purpose of their comments? They made it sound as if this was going to be much fuss over nothing. My point being WHO probably had the information St. Jude had, and were basing their decision to raise the alert level on other factors. This didn't necessarily mean there was any good news, yet.

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by: wikimetoo @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 00:34:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dem, this is the part...

of the article I was referring to

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Health published genetic sequence data Monday morning of flu samples isolated from patients in California and Texas, and thousands of scientists immediately began downloading the information. Comparisons to known killers -- such as the 1918 strain and the highly lethal H5N1 avian virus -- have since provided welcome news.

"There are certain characteristics, molecular signatures, which this virus lacks," said Peter Palese, a microbiologist and influenza expert at Mt. Sinai Medical Center in New York. In particular, the swine flu lacks an amino acid that appears to increase the number of virus particles in the lungs and make the disease more deadly."

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by: wikimetoo @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 00:39:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

here's another POV

Q: What do you think of this outbreak?

R.D.: This is the first one I've seen firsthand as a virologist. The avian influenza outbreak is not comparable because this is unfolding so quickly. This reminds me of SARS. With avian there's very little transmission. And even with SARS, transmission was far less.

Q: Does this one scare you?

R.D.: I saw figures that do scare you. We've received 300 samples from Mexico, and these cover the span of February, March, and April. And you look at flu A, traditionally it's A/H1 or A/H3 or it's B up until the end of March. There are two or three cases up to [the] last days of March that are swine. Then in April they skyrocket. So all the cases in the D.F. areas, where most samples came from, it really transmits very efficiently.

Q: What is the date of first sample?

R.D.: I think it's the end of March, the first positive specimen.

Q: Did Mexico react quickly enough?

R.D.: They didn't know. They probably thought it was regular flu.

Q: Flu is a seasonal disease that peaks in winter. Maybe this will end in the United States with the end of the flu season.

R.D.: We're in a good position. The folks in Buenos Aires are in trouble. They're entering winter now.

http://blogs.sciencemag.org/sc...

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by: DemFromCT @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 02:55:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I don't buy it...

Here's the end of regular flu season and look how it's spreading.  This is not normal flu.  Buenos Aires AND NYC are both going to have trouble.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

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by: Tempest @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 04:07:25 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

"good" is a relative thing

good compared to fall 1918.

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by: DemFromCT @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 16:44:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

so, two points

there's enough there to make people in mexico ill, though perhaps it's not as widespread, esp. in the US and outside of mexico.

It's appearing all over the world, therefore transmissibility is high. it's virulence may be low (we'll see). But the transmissibility is making it pandemic potential, noit the virulence.

A high transmissible, low virulence novel virus (swine H1N1) is possibly a pandemic.

A low transmissible , high virulence novel virus (H5N1) is not.

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by: DemFromCT @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 02:58:44 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

could the first get more virulent?

could the second become more transmissible?

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by: DemFromCT @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 02:59:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

If it doesn't have the capacity to be lethal, what did those 164 confirmed deaths in Mexico die from? n/t

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 05:26:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Good News?

I'm equally sceptical about potential good news too.
I'm ready, I've prepped let's see if it kicks off.

No point in willing it to be a pandemic if it isn't

 Man occasionally stumbles over the truth.  Most of the time though, he manages to pick himself up and carry on as if nothing had happened.

Winston S Churchill


JK

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by: jake6257 @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 21:29:00 PM UTC

FORT WORTH, TEXAS

Fort Worth's Mayfest and Cinco de Mayo events are shut down as Tarrant County health officials declared Thursday that all outdoor public gatherings must be canceled due to swine flu concerns.

www.nbc5i.com

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by: aggiew @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 22:40:45 PM UTC

NZ - Hawkes Bay boarding school hit by flu scare

Fri, 01 May 2009 10:12a.m.

Thirty one boys and teachers from a Hawke's Bay boarding school have been sent home or isolated after some members of a group had flu-like symptoms after returning from North America this week.

Three of the group, which included four teachers and 27 students from Lindisfarne College, developed flu-like symptoms after returning on Tuesday, the Hawke's Bay District Health Board reported.

Medical officer of health Caroline McElnay said moves to isolate all of them was precautionary.

Dr McElnay said samples had been taken from the boys affected and they had been offered Tamiflu, as had the rest of the group.

Some extra samples were also taken last night.

College rector Grant Lander said the situation had forced the school to postpone its gala opening, as the boys were all in the school's orchestra, but advice from health officials needed to be followed.

A small number of the boys who were boarders and unable to go home were being kept in isolation at the school.

Dr McElnay said results from the samples taken were expected over the next few days.

The latest information from the Ministry of Health said the number of suspected cases of swine flu in New Zealand was 111, while the number of people in isolation was 121.

Three people were confirmed to have contracted the virus, while another 13 were being treated as confirmed cases. All were in the Auckland area.

Link  http://www.3news.co.nz/News/Ha...

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

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by: AnnieB @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 22:46:10 PM UTC

13 probable cases in Washington state

Now there are 13 probable cases of swine flu in Washington state:

http://www.kingcounty.gov/heal...

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by: JV @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 23:28:00 PM UTC

UTAH : 5 probable cases

http://health.utah.gov/epi/Swi...

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by: DemFromCT @ Thu Apr 30, 2009 at 23:56:09 PM UTC

WHO changes flu virus strain name from swine flu

GENEVA (Reuters) - The World Health Organisation (WHO), bowing to pressure from meat industry producers and concerned governments, said on Thursday it would refer to a deadly new virus strain as influenza A (H1N1), not swine flu. "From today, WHO will refer to the new influenza virus as 'influenza A (H1N1)'," (Snip)
The new strain has infected 257 people. The WHO has confirmed eight deaths although many more people are suspected to have died from the virus.

It derives from a swine influenza virus but the new strain has been found only in people. While it contains mostly swine flu genetic sequences, it also contains small amounts of human and bird flu virus genetic material.

No pigs have been confirmed to be sick with it.WHO has consistently said the disease cannot be caught from eating pork if it is prepared properly. "There is also no risk of infection from this virus from consumption of well-cooked pork and pork products," (Snip)

The name of the flu led several countries to ban imports of pork from Mexico and the United States, where the outbreak first appeared, and authorities in Egypt have ordered a cull of pigs. U.S. and European food industries and governments had been calling for a change in name to remove the link in people's minds between the disease and pigs. Continued... http://uk.reuters.com/article/...

Note: Raise your hand if you really believe the general public are going to call this the "Influenza A - H1N1 outbreak or pandemic". I guess the WHO will name the seasonal H1N1 flu as the "Seasonal Influenza A - H1N1 Winter/Spring outbreaks."

No wonder the public is so confused and why are these guys at WHO still getting a salary?


Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 00:21:46 AM UTC

LOL, Carol! I'm calling it WPF, myself. (once it recombines with bf)

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 05:30:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Add Pennsylvania to the list

http://www.philly.com/philly/w...

Also, we just found out there is at least one suspected case in Chester County (where I live), in addition to the above.

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by: WhiteSwan @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 01:11:09 AM UTC

NM - 1M,18M

locally seen Type A, sent to CDC for confirmation

http://www.kob.com/article/sto...

The two cases sent to the CDC involve a 1-year-old boy from Santa Fe County and an 18-year-old male from Valencia County.


Be Prepared

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by: DennisC @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 01:15:34 AM UTC

Bird flu in swine

This is not a good thing.

"Researchers at Kobe University's Center for Infectious Diseases detected the H5N1 virus in 52 pigs, more than one in 10 of the 402 pigs they examined from four Indonesian provinces, the newspaper said. Pigs are capable of transmitting the virus to birds and people, researchers said."

http://www.postchronicle.com/n...

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by: Michelle in OK @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 01:15:39 AM UTC

Virginia officials confirm 2 cases of 'swine' flu in state

http://www.roanoke.com/news/br...

Virginia health officials have confirmed the state's first two cases of H1N1 flu (swine flu), and said both adult patients have recovered fro their illnesses. Both patients, an adult male from eastern Virginia and and adult female from central Virginia, suffered minor illnesses after traveling to Mexico, Gov. Tim Kaine told reporters tonight. Neither patient required hospitalization. Health officials would not provide more specific information about the patients or where they live, citing privacy concerns. In a news conference, Kaine and health officials said they expect to see additional cases of swine flu in the state due to the size of the state's population, seasonal travel patterns and how quickly the virus is spread. State health Commissioner Cr. Karen Remley said the symptoms of swine flu, also called the H1N1 virus, are similar to those associated with seasonal flu. She advised anyone experiencing symptoms such as fever, cough and sore throat to stay home from work or school and call their health care providers before seeking treatment.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

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by: Oremus @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 01:21:07 AM UTC

FT. WORTH AND TARRANT COUNTY

www.star-telegram.com

Tarrant County Public Health recommends not holding organized events, like Mayfest or Cinco de Mayo celebrations, that are specifically designed to attract the attendance of Fort Worth Independent School District (FWISD) students, who as a group have been identified as at at-risk population.

"It is my opinion that aggressive but appropriate social distancing measures are key to controlling the spread of ilness. This is a precautionary measure and is not intended to alarm anyone; rather, it is intended to support the decision regarding FWISD closure and suspension of UIL activities."

Of the 26 cases of swine flu confirmed as of Thursday afternoon, five were in Tarrant County. Nine were in Guadalupe County, in central Texas, and six were in Dallas.

i think that the fort worth powers that be, and  the tarrant county powers that be are doing a great job.  we are getting more reports of confirmed and probables on the news but not listed anywhere.  

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by: aggiew @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 02:21:21 AM UTC

Not testing all possible cases.

State labs: US swine flu cases likely higher

Apr 30, 6:25 PM (ET)

By MARILYNN MARCHIONE

MILWAUKEE (AP) - A hundred cases of swine flu in the U.S.? Health officials say there are likely more. Just how many is not important, they say. As the world faces a potential pandemic, swamped labs are not testing all possible cases. Getting an exact tally has taken a back seat to finding new outbreak hot spots or ways to limits its spread, health officials said.

"The specimens are coming in faster than they can possibly be tested," said Dr. Jeffrey P. Davis, state epidemiologist in Wisconsin, where a lab helped spot the nation's first known case, in a 10-year-old boy from San Diego.

New York, which has more cases than any other U.S. location, also has had to limit the samples it tests, said Dr. Don Weiss of that city's health department.

"Sure, we'd want to diagnose every case, but we don't have that resource," he said. Instead of trying to confirm every sign of the virus, "we're focused on where else is it going and how do we prevent it."

On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will start shipping kits so states can do their own swine flu tests. Until now, state labs could only rule out previously known flu strains and send suspicious samples to CDC.

With the new kits from CDC, states will be able to declare presumed swine flu cases, allowing doctors to start treatment. Medicines to fight the virus, such as Tamiflu and Relenza, must be taken within 48 hours of first symptoms to do any good.

Until now, many busy labs have been so overrun that they could do preliminary tests only on samples that meet a strict case definition or that involve people who traveled to Mexico.

"The capacity of the state laboratories to test all the swabs is being exceeded," said Dr. Paul Jarris, executive director of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials.

Initially, labs just needed to detect the virus, he said. "Once it's in the community, it's not as important to detect every single case. You can actually treat based on the clinical picture."

Sending samples to CDC was "getting to be a challenge," said Alabama State Health Officer Don Williamson. The first eight were negative, and the state lab had 29 more to test on Wednesday, he said.

Without a confirmed case, state officials still took the precaution of ordering 1.5 million face masks and other supplies.

"We are preparing for the worst while praying for the best," Williamson said.

CDC has had to be selective, too. The agency generally can process about 100 samples a night, said Michael Shaw, associate director for laboratory science. CDC has not said how many specimens they have received for testing.

"As the number of specimens increases, the time slows down," Shaw said. "It's not just a matter of running tests. It takes time to unpack boxes, make a record of receiving, enter into the database."

The CDC added just 18 new cases to its official list on Thursday, and its acting director said it may stop doing confirmatory testing as the virus becomes more common in a community.

"We may move away from case updates," Dr. Richard Besser said. "The numbers become a little murkier, and we'll focus more on where things are occurring and what that tells us about the spread of infection."

The public may be surprised to know it's not so important to have an exact tally, or to tell a person whether he or she has the germ, said Sharon Shea. She is director of infectious disease programs at the Association of Public Health Laboratories, the network of labs that work with CDC.

"It's not what people want to hear. As an individual, you want to know what's making you sick," she said.

Each state's epidemiologist will have to decide what samples should be tested, said Scott Becker, executive director of the lab association.

The common cold and other viruses are also circulating and cause similar symptoms.

In the last two days, the Wisconsin State Laboratory of Hygiene "had a huge spike," about 150 samples of suspected swine flu cases, said its communicable disease chief, Pete Shult. Wisconsin has five probable cases awaiting CDC confirmation.

Through a fluke, his lab helped confirm the nation's first case. A private company doing a study of an experimental rapid flu test it wants to sell had agreed to send any samples that could not be typed to a more experienced lab - in this case, the Marshfield Clinic Research Foundation in Wisconsin.

The clinic, in turn, had agreed to alert the state to any flu viruses that did not match a known strain.

"I got a call on Good Friday. They had such a specimen," he said. That was from the boy in San Diego who was the first known U.S. case of swine flu.

The sample was tested on Monday, April 13, and shipped overnight to CDC, which confirmed it as the novel swine flu on Tuesday, April 14.

The San Diego boy had fallen ill on March 30. Since then, the CDC and the public health lab association have suggested that state labs go back through samples since February to look for signs of the virus. At CDC, stored samples show no earlier sign of it, Shaw said.

"That's the odd thing about this. It just appeared out of the blue the last week of March," he said.

Shult said the hunt now is "an academic exercise" and a lower priority than testing the hundreds of samples that might help contain the outbreak.

"I'm going to be trying to stay afloat" of the crush of current samples, he said.

---

Associated Press writers Mike Stobbe in Atlanta, Sara Kugler in New York, and Desiree Hunter in Montgomery, Ala., contributed to this report.

---

by: InKy @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 02:50:25 AM UTC

Small numbers

The media and the public will see the small numbers (relatively) and continue to say "What's the big deal?"  Communication on this needs to be clear or the people will think they have been lied to when there is obviously a lot more cases in their home town or state than what the government is reporting.  Lose the confidence of the people and you will have an even greater problem.  This change needs to be explained in-depth.

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by: Okieman @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 03:02:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

This makes it pretty impossible to come up with an accurate cfr

Until now, many busy labs have been so overrun that they could do preliminary tests only on samples that meet a strict case definition or that involve people who traveled to Mexico.

"The capacity of the state laboratories to test all the swabs is being exceeded," said Dr. Paul Jarris, executive director of the Association of State and Territorial Health Officials.

Initially, labs just needed to detect the virus, he said. "Once it's in the community, it's not as important to detect every single case. You can actually treat based on the clinical picture."

And, as okieman says, the low 'official counts' from the CDC and WHO will end up being misleading to the general public. They need to come up with some way to extrapolate probable cases from confirmed and present both numbers as valid indicators of the spread and the cfr.

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 05:36:58 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sounds Like CDC Testing Will Focus on Confirming New Locations

we'll focus more on where things are occurring and what that tells us about the spread of infection."

Which makes sense.

With limited resources, the raw underlying stats are not as important.

In the northern hemisphere, where seasonal flu season is pretty much done, if you have flu, they'll probably assume H1N1 Human Swine Flu and act accordingly.

Southern hemisphere, where seasonal flu season just starting will present a different challenge.  

Looks like they will also have to use assumptions and extrapolations to determine PSI (Pandemic Severity Index) to predict possible CFR and anticipated death toll.

At some point, I am assuming that the federal government will remember that it has a Community Mitigation Strategy, not just very short-term Community reflex reaction.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

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by: Into The Woods @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 18:22:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

see goju's diary

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

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by: DemFromCT @ Sat May 02, 2009 at 04:06:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Probable case in South Dakota

http://www.keloland.com/NewsDe...

The interesting thing is that they can't figure out how he was infected. He hasn't traveled to Mexico or even left the state. This is the first known case in South Dakota.

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by: Andrzejek @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 03:47:27 AM UTC

Please post new news stories to...

News Reports for May 1, 2009

Thank you!

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 04:16:09 AM UTC

Great job everyone!

There were 8,570 visits today and you kept everyone informed.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 04:40:56 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thank you

Carol and helpers for keeping the headlines updated. You're doing an incredible job.

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by: AlohaOR @ Fri May 01, 2009 at 05:19:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]