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The Schools Debate

by: DemFromCT

Mon May 25, 2009 at 08:42:52 AM EDT


This morning the The Washington Post has an editorial about swine flu preparation lessons to be learned, and some of the gaps in planning that were exposed.  
DemFromCT :: The Schools Debate
Ms. Napolitano told us recently that one issue that loomed large for her was the response of schools. Some districts closed their schools; New York City shuttered 23 more last week. This had a ripple effect on local areas and raises serious questions. How would future school closures affect parents who might lose their jobs if they stay home with their children? What would be the impact on day care? How should closures be decided on? Ms. Napolitano said that the decision should be based on guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
We knew there were gaps, particularly in the messaging about what a pandemic is really like, and the individual and community hardship entailed when schools need to unexpectedly close. The Post editorial board seems to imply that more central US authority would help. The opposite is true. This is a state and local issue that needs resolution. The CDC can advise on when closure should take place, but that is not an issue for the Feds to decide.

OTOH, state and local authorities have to understand that they might need to close schools, and they need to better drill and practice the process, instead of pretending someone else will make the decision. This swine flu outbreak brings home the point (see NYC rationale for closing) that there's really are local decisions, and that those decisions will be made - and if the local authorities don't make them (and don't explain them), parents and teachers will.

Over concern and underestimation can be mitigated, even if impossible to completely avoid, by planning in advance, and practicing the plans. That's a lesson that every school district should learn.... and practice and drill.

In the meantime, though late to the table and only through pressure from teachers and parents, the NYC schools have posted their rationale, and also posted a list of what's considered an "underlying medical condition".


There is no single number upon which school closures decisions are made. The Health Department carefully evaluates the circumstances occurring at each school and considers many factors including:

  • The number of visits to the nurse by children with documented fever flu-like illness

  • The trend of flu-like illness over several days and the potential benefit of reduced transmission over weekend days, when school is not in session;

  • The percentage of children absent with flu-like illness;  

  • Reports of teacher illness while they are in the school; and

  • Special circumstances of the school, such as children in District 75 schools - schools for students with disabilities;

  • Whether a school is an elementary, intermediate or high school.

and

The Health Department advises any New Yorkers with the underlying health conditions listed below to seek medical consultation if they have come in contact with someone with flu, have flu-like symptoms or have any trouble breathing - especially children with asthma. This would also include children and staff with these conditions who attend or work at a school that has been closed. Those at higher risk include:

  • People over 65 or under 2 years of age

  • People with chronic lung disorders such as asthma or emphysema

  • People with chronic heart, kidney, liver or blood disorders

  • People with diabetes

  • People whose immune systems are compromised by illness or medication

  • Pregnant women

  • People on long-term aspirin therapy
Both lists are helpful, if belated. Also helpful is the daily list of school absenteeism and closures.

Thwe question I have is: what should the NYC schools be doing (assume they are your locals schools). What lessons would you learn, and how would you do it differently? if you close the schools, when would you open them? What criteria would you use? What should the plan be for the fall? Etc.

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The Schools Debate | 103 comments
I'll start by suggesting
that we also look at Walrus' diary about what authorities are and are not telling citizens.

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

As far as pandemic preparedness in general, i think this is an excellent discussion to have over the summer and before the schools reopen in the fall.


and part of the discussion should include updated home guidance
[ Parent ]
NYC provides plans for home learning
Side note:  See NYC Dept of Ed. website -- they have provided a 5-day plan for home learning for children at each grade level.

http://schools.nyc.gov/Academi...

As schools across the country contemplate whether they will need to close schools for a short period of time, they might like to look at the plans NYC has produced.


GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.


they have done some things fairly well
at least, eventually.

[ Parent ]
Closing Schools - What are the alternatives?
If you think NOT closing schools is a bad idea, do you really have a good alternative?

For example, if you close the schools, when would you reopen them, next year?

Closing schools is a viable strategy if the flu was presenting symptoms similar to 1918, but the fact is that it is not doing so.

Closing schools is a viable strategy if the flu had a CFR of even .5%, but it does not.

Closing schools is a viable strategy if the total amount of hospitalizations requiring vents exceeded capacity, but it hasn't.

Closing schools is a viable strategy if H5N1 is freely circulating in the community, but it isn't.

Closing schools is a viable strategy if they saw any deaths of kids in the first school outbreak, but they didn't.

Right now I would give New York an B in policy, a D in communications, and a fail in compassion.

Seriously, close the shools?  What's the benefit to the community?

Will closing stop the spread? No, it will only slow it down.

Will closing make Mexiflu less lethal? No, it could even make it more lethal by creating more generational drift in the genome.

Will closing affect the CFR?  No, those who will die, will die anyway when they catch it.

Will closing improve the hospital surge problem? Yes, if we HAD a surge problem, which we do not at this time.

Will closing stop Mexiflu from mingling with other influenza strains? No, it will mingle even with intervention.

So, if you wrote down the Pros of Closing what would you come up with?

Now write down the Cons of Closing, what would you come up with?

Which list is longer, has a significantly better health impact, and harms the community the least?



redacted in deference to the very real pain being suffered across America by families.


Slowing down the spread is a major reason to close the schools.
At the end of April, we were hearing that Mexico had over 100 deaths, and the number climbed to 150 or 169 at the highest.  We can't afford to ignore such virulence, IMO.  (I don't know why such high figures were given at first, but can we afford to discount such reports?  I don't think that's prudent.)

In the beginning, when we don't know how serious the illness will turn out to be, we won't know how many hospitalizations will be necessary or what the fatality rate will be.  Therefore we should be very cautious until we know what we and our kids are facing.

Also, slowing down the spread gives more time for the vaccine-making process to go on.

Why would closing the schools make the virus more lethal? Does generational drift happen more over simple passage of time or more through repetition through succeeding cases?  (I don't really understand the term.)  

IMO, it's irresponsible to ignore those children with chronic health problems in a flu pandemic.  Children who are more at risk should be excused from mixing with others, instead of making their parents face some legal penalty for "truancy."  It will be messy and unclear, and excusing some will make other parents think twice about sending their kids to school, unless some very good communications went on.

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
i agree with you
and perhaps if not clear a distinction should be made between onset in April and now. For example, applying the precautionary principle,  a single probable or confirmed case closed schools early on. Now, a single confirmed case does not... it takes more than one or two cases.

[ Parent ]
NYC
According to Wikipedia, the New York City School System has 1.1 million students enrolled.  If half of them catch the virus attending daily legally mandated school swine flu parties hosted by the school district, 550,000 will become ill, and, in a pandemic with .05% CFR (a mild Category 1 pandemic, mind you), 275 will die. (That's not even counting the fact that the young experience more instances of severe illness and more fatalities, statistically speaking, than the population as a whole. CFR will vary by age group.)

Can we not think creatively about how to reduce that number?

There are several results from attempting to do school as usual during a pandemic.

1) Many students get sick. A small percentage die. Percentages represent real children; we're not just crunching number here.  We're crunching numbers of lives.
2) Schools close anyway, due to poor attendance.
3) Officials reap wrath over the decision to keep schools open.

Below I've pasted excerpts from workplace guidelines Save the Children has posted for its staff on its website.  I think it's time to examine how school procedures can be rethought during a mild pandemic to offer students (our most vulnerable demographic) and staff at least the kind of consideration and protection most adults can devise and implement for their workplaces. If we can't pull that off, trying to keep schools open may prove a fiasco, however good our intentions were.

Influenza Guidance:  Social Distancing to Limit Transmission in the Workplace

DO NOT ENTER THIS BUILDING if you have:
•Fever (temperature more than 38oC or 100oF, or feel feverish or hot)
•Body/muscle aches/pains
•Sneezing
•Stuffy or runny nose
•Sore throat
•Cough
•Tiredness, weakness, or fatigue
If 2 or more of the above apply to you, PLEASE GO HOME, & return to work only after recovery.

[Snip]

1.If possible, work from home, or work variable hours to avoid crowding at the workplace.
2.Maintain a distance of at least 2 meters (6 feet) between persons whenever practical.  
3.Avoid shaking hands or hugging.
4.Avoid crowded places & gatherings of people.
5.Do not congregate in areas where people socialize.  Do what needs to be done & then leave the area.
6.Cancel or postpone non-essential meetings, workshops, etc.
10.Avoid public transport: walk, cycle, drive a car, or go early or late to avoid rush hour crowding on public transport.
11.Bring lunch & eat at your desk or away from others.
12.Stagger lunchtimes to reduce people in the lunch room.
13.Avoid all unnecessary travel.
14.Avoid contact with ill people whenever practicable.

•Even after taking these precautions, some flu transmission is still likely in the workplace, because the virus may be spread by infected people before their symptoms appear.  

Influenza Point Person(s) / Ext(s).  ........................................................
IPP:  Please post this in visible locations around the office & distribute to each staff member, as soon as there is news from a credible source of clusters of human flu cases near your state or district (after WHO declaration of Phase 5 or 6).  (June 2007 revised draft for local adaptation, based on gov. of New Zealand pan flu guide.)

Now then, what does the "school version" of this kind of planning look like?  Not easy, is it? But we owe our kids a fighting chance against pandemic flu.


[ Parent ]
not easy, but
there has been planning 9fwiw) for worse, and for none, but 'mild' has not really been worked on until now.

[ Parent ]
one of my first posts on Old Yellow
was "Alternatives to Full Scale School Closure".

I remember being ROUNDLY criticized by what felt like everyone for proposing such a thing. (I have thicker skin now, of course!)   But I came up with a list of ways schools could continue operating with a lot less possibilities for students infecting each other.  

None of the suggestions had anything to do with handwashing, though, and the suggestions did not require children's cooperation (like teaching kids to cover their sneezes).

Mostly they had to do with not letting kids mix and mingle much.  "Cohorting" kids together so to speak, instead of hanving kids mix in different classrooms for different types of instuction.  They unfortunately would have a detrimental effect on actual instruction and student achievement. They cost very little money but would require restructuring the way the school is run.

Elementary schools are the most familar to me.  High school would be a completely different story, and I haven't thought about them.  I thought primarily about elementary students because many of them are too young to legally be left alone at home, if schools are closed and parents can't take time off of work.  Presumably high school students could do a lot more independent study on their own.

These suggestions would include (and many would no doubt require union agreement):

1) kids stay in classrooms to eat lunch instead of going to the cafeteria

2) stay in classrooms and drink water from water bottles -- don't go to water fountain.

3) elimate regrouping of kids across classrooms for reading or math or other  instruction; all 3rd graders stay in their own classroom all day long.  They do not get pulled out for special instruction by teachers or to be taught "advanced" math in the next grade up.

4) Plenty of outdoor recess (sunlight and vitamin D!), but do not use the playground equipment.  Children play only with their own classmates, and use only dedicated classroom jumpropes, balls, etc.

5) If children use "gang" bathrooms, work out a way so only one class is using at a time, as much as possible; even can have boys and girls in the same bathroom.  This just avoides mixing as much as possible.

5) If children ride buses to school -- encourage car pools, walkers as much as possible to reduce density on the bus.  Otherwise, I can't figure out how to reduce mixing/possibilities of spreading infection on schools buses.  Kids could wear masks I suppose, but that measure would require student compliance, and kids might very well not wear their masks.

When I made these suggestions way back when, the feeling was that if things got that bad, of COURSE the schools would close; it would be a "death sentence" etc. etc. etc. to send your kids to school; and if it was mild, no one would be willing to put up with the disruption to the school life -- for one thing, eating in the classroom instead of the cafeteria would mean you'd need a teacher to watch the children -- and teachers are (rightfully) guaranteed a 30 minute lunch break with no requirements to watch children.  So how could you manage that?

I don't know if there'd be the will to do even some of these ideas, to reduce spread enough to protect even some kids, while still managing to keep schools open.  But I am offering the suggestions to anyone who finds them, well, useful!



GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.


[ Parent ]
Good ideas! Could attendance be made voluntary, I wonder?
Having fewer kids in each classroom would bring down the density, if some kids could stay home.  

Teachers could rearrange the furniture to increase the distance between desks, instead of having them grouped together.  

Storytime would be with children at their desks instead of on the story rug.  

Lining up would have to be done at arm's-length distance instead of hand's width.

New rule: don't touch other people's stuff!  (Would that work?)

I'm most familiar with young children, too.  (Obviously, with story-time in the schedule.  lol)

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
I don't think the above would work
In a crowded elementary school classroom, you just can't keep kids 6 feet away from each otehr all day.

If such measures are necessary, then schools must be closed.

Within a classroom, you can't reduce respiratory contacts.  (keeping kids at desks versus story rug, for instance).  That just isn'tpractical IMO.

But within a school, at least you can reduce respiratory contacts, by restructuring the way the school operates.

If slowing down spread through a school, while keeping most of the school open, is what people want to do.

If 2 kids in one 3rd grade class both come down with the flu, you can just keep that one class home, not the whole school.  

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.


[ Parent ]
This discussion should go on within schools or at PTA meetings,
IMO, to clarify how flu spreads, from breathing, as InKY wrote.  The more that parents consider how to solve the problem of reducing infection while keeping the schools open, the more likely they are to understand that it won't work.  There are some hard choices to make, before the next wave hits.  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
Impossible!
I have been working in an elementary school for over 6 years now and what you have said here is impossible.  I could go point by point but no one can watch children like you have suggested here.  

The only thing to keep any virus from spreading is to close the school down.  You should see what it is like when we have the stomach virus go through the school...kids thowing up all over the place and going home ASAP.  I sanitize all the door knobs I touch and all the machines I touch. I also sanitize my hands all day long.  Even then I sometimes still get the stomach virus.

If this 2nd wave is deadly I will leave school and isolate my child even if the schools do not close down.  

Remember 1918...St. Louis shut down schools quickly and they lost fewer children than Boston, NY, and Philly.  Learn from the past!


[ Parent ]
I respectfully disagree FluMom
I've been an elementary school teacher for 9 years myself, and I believe everything I have suggested is quite  possible.

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.

[ Parent ]
Don't Know What Grade You Teach?
I don't know where you teach but I am in grades K-6 and the K-3 kids pick their noses and touch everything. Then they cough and sneeze without covering anything. While you are teaching a group of readers HOW can you stop a child from spreading germs all over the room from ONE sneeze.

Maybe you are in a private school where you have very small classrooms but where I am we have 22-30 kids in a room and I still say it is impossible to do what you have proposed.


[ Parent ]
no, public school
I taught public school grades k-5, Flumom and I TOTALLY agree, you cannot keep children from sneezing all over everyone, and from touching their noses and spreading germs everywhere.

Is it possible you misunderstood the measures I was proposing?

The suggestions I recommended were not attempts to keep children from spreading germs within their classroom.  I think that is futile.  If kids are in school, kids will spread germs to other kids they come into contact with.

Instead, I suggested measures that would reduce the number of contacts children had, by "cohorting" or segregating children, and not allowing them to be with other children.  These measures do not require children's (ahem) cooperation.

In this way, instead of coming into contact with 100+ chidlren per day, students would come into contact only with the same 24 to 30 children each day. (In some schools in my area, first grade only have 18 kids!)  If one child in a class came down with the flu, just that class could be kept home, instead of the entire school.

I think these measures would slow spread, but in no way do I think they would stop spread, nor would they permanently protect children from catching the flu, which I think is pretty much inevitable if school is in session and the illness is around.


GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.


[ Parent ]
I think cohorting would be very useful
in preventing the spread from being explosive.  



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
reducing contact
However, those kids will still go home and be around their siblings from other classrooms- "cross contamination", if you will.

It may slow the spread, but there will (IMHO) still be spread between the classrooms.

It would also be difficult to segregate the classrooms on the high school level.  In Texas, most secondary school teachers teach specific subjects-- you will not find many high school math teachers willing/able to teach senior english and vice versa.

Lots of questions, and no clearcut answers!


[ Parent ]
I like the ideas but thought of another wrinkle...
Transportation.  Sure plenty of parents can drive their kids, but not all.  And many will simple bit&* about the inconvenience.  

[ Parent ]
yup -- busses are t the big problem I can't solve!
OTOH -- at my local public elementary school, 95% of kids do not qualify for bus transportation.  They are walkers or their parents have to drop them off.

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.

[ Parent ]
ACM public transportation in general was a problem for the US DHSS's
Pandemic Influenza Plan too.  In November 2005 when they published their updated master plan, the CDC were not concerned about children on school buses because this plan called for early school closure as a key NPI as we know. What bedeviled them was what to do about public transportation in general specifically crowded subways, commuter trains, buses and planes.  For most adults, traveling by one of these conveyances brings them into closer physical contact with other people on a daily basis that almost anything most people do day in and day out.  Remember what honest Joe Biden said about this before being muzzled.

What they understood of course was the effect of shutting down these services would have on the economy of the country as well as the income of those who depend on these methods to get to and from work.  Another factor raised was the social inequity of shuttering services that primarily catered to the less advantaged like city bus lines.  While these workers might not be able to go to work by other means those with their own car or who could afford a taxi would not be affected to the same hardship; hence the social inequality of the policy.

It appears to me that the choice made in the end was probably dictated by the US DHS, who you will recall is by presidential directive the lead agency for managing a flu pandemic.  It is my guess that they determined that closing the schools was too risky not to mention public transportation since both actions would adversely and dramatically affect the nation's security by driving a nail through the heart of an economy that is barely breathing after a close brush with depression.

We do not know whether or not if this was the right decision.  This should become clear in a week or two in the US and Canada by watching for a rapid rise in serious illness and deaths seen in Mexico when their epidemic reached the point ours is entering now.  

What troubles me most of all however is that if they get away with making this call prematurely before anyone could really know what we were dealing with, it will embolden them to make the same reckless choice this fall or whenever in the future we are visited once again by a severe 1918-style pandemic.  

The most effective measures in the public health quiver of NPIs were shot down less than 6 month after being annouced when the US DHS first ruled out the use of involuntary quarantines and international as well as intra-national travel restrictions in their master plan that released in the spring of 2006.  This happened just after the secretary of the US DHS and his organization was given the lead by President Bush.  

The last stand for the public health wanks at the US DHSS was early school closure once the virus seeped into the country despite the tight institution of quarantines and travel restrictions.  Of course, as soon as the new secretary of the US DHS took over in May, early school closure was thrown under the but too.  

About the only thing left in their NPI arsenal is the lame advice to stay home if you are sick with an ILI, cover your mouth when coughing or sneezing and wash your hands.  While marginally helpful these NPIs, IMO will be about as effective to slow the transmission rate of the virus as "duck and cover" beside your school desk was as a protection from a nuclear blast.

Grattan Woodson, MD

GW


[ Parent ]
School during a category 1 pandemic
I don't think it's enough to keep kids in small groups if those groups are still densely populated. I'll suggest some ideas for middle and high school, as ACM has for elementary school.

Kids with underlying conditions that put them at elevated risk should be allowed, at their parents' discretion, to work as homebound students during an outbreak.  Documentation of their underlying condition(s) should be on file at the school.  That's already the case for kids with asthma or diabetes. Lessons for them should be designed to be as self-explanatory as possible.

Schools can reduce density by alternating classroom instruction with distance learning.  Students on a "A" schedule might receive classroom instruction on Monday and Wednesday while students on a "B" schedule might receive classroom instruction on a Tuesday and a Thursday. Students would have meaningful and substantive homework for the days not devoted to classroom instruction.

Fridays might offer time for teachers to consult by phone with students who are homebound, helping them with their lessons and time for the extra hours of planning required to package lessons for independent study. Now, of course, state laws require attendance so many days per year; states would be wise to consider a temporary suspension of such laws during a pandemic.

Because a significant number of kids will be out sick or be staying out to avoid infection, it will be very challenging to ensure that everybody has covered all material by the end of any grading period. Lessons need to be thoroughly documented and user-friendly for independent study. My school is on a calendar with 2-week intersessions between grading periods.  That kind of calendar will be invaluable for giving kids opportunities to catch up during a disrupted school year

With an A/B schedule, buses would be less crowded - one student per seat, perhaps.  T-shirt masks might be a good idea on the bus.  

Cafeteria staff could prepare sack lunches to be eaten in classrooms - that seems a no brainer.  Students should not stand in cafeteria lines or eat 5 or 6 to a table.

Extracurricular activities and field trips, class trips, etc. should be halted for the duration of a pandemic wave.

Class changes and locker visits remain a sticking point.  I would ask students to minimize locker visits (one binder for all classes, divided into sections?) and consider staggering release and arrival times.  Teachers might release students with last names beginning A-G at the bell, students with last names beginning with H-M one or two minutes later, and students with last names beginning with N-Z a minute or two after that. Students would be expected at their next class X minutes after they were released (i.e., each group would have the usual passing time).  

Students would not be encouraged to visit the restroom in herds between classes, but would be released one by one from class, to minimize crowding in the bathrooms.

Faculty meetings or any other sorts of meetings should be held in big spaces, with people spread out - the gym, the cafeteria (one person per table)

I'm sure there are other ideas that might be useful.  It would be great to know what works and what doesn't before the fall.


[ Parent ]
Two-Fold Approach
I think that schools should consider all the ideas suggested here as well as others.  We have all heard that one of the main reasons for opposition to school closure is that many parents who can not miss work also do not have access to caregivers who can watch the younger children.  On the other hand, there are many families who either have a stay-at-home parent or have caregivers (relatives or neighbors) who could keep their children at home.  If the schools prepared with these options in mind, it seems that those parents who could homeschool their children for whatever necessary time period would definitely ease the school's burden in caring for those who must be sent to school. It would certainly require some creative lesson planning, but in the long run, I believe that a two-fold approach might be more feasible than a one-size-fits-all option.

"I am opposed to any form of tyranny over the mind of man."  Thomas Jefferson

[ Parent ]
If schools weren't considered
in the same category as free baby-sitters, this problem wouldn't exist to this extent.  I don't think that was ever the purpose or the intent of public education.

Children are the responsibility of their parents, not of the school system - just because there are some parents who have problems arranging child care is no reason to keep schools open and thereby expose other children to the possibility of a contagious disease.

That falls into the same category as not telling people to stockpile goods because there are some who cannot afford to do so - you can't let everyone be victimized by the inability of some to prepare.  Rather, I should say you shouldn't let them be victimized, because obviously it can be done - we're seeing it done.


[ Parent ]
Clawdia, I agree to an extent.
Schools should not be babysitters, but there are now more than ever, many single parent households.  In addition these single parents may hold vital jobs, such as in nursing, trucking, etc., and they may live in places where they may not have relatives or close friends to whom they can entrust their children.  It is a case of reality versus personal ethics.  My first preference would be to close all schools, but failing this, if some schools are to remain open, we must consider options to make the situation as safe as possible.

And I do not agree that this falls into the same category as not telling people to stockpile goods because there are some who cannot afford to do so.  I have always advocated community responsibilty for those who will not be able to prep, for example the elderly and single parents.  And I have also always advocated open discussion of all options.  

"I am opposed to any form of tyranny over the mind of man."  Thomas Jefferson


[ Parent ]
Unfortunately it is true that schools do function as child sitters that occasionally educate
The public school system is a product of the industrial revolution. The reason the state supports the schools is to train workers to produce for it and as a place where its current workers can send their kids while at work.

This is a fact.  Sure, we romanticize it today but that does not change the reality.

For instance, the US and every other nation's space program is a military endeavor. The interstate highways in the US are as well. If you doubt these statements check them out on Wikipedia.

Anyway, keep this in mind when you consider the effect of closing the schools.  I do and I think that during a pandemic they should be closed and early.

So, what happened during the pandemic when we really could not predict if it would be bad or not?  The CDC changed its advice and told local school boards, who actually have the power at the present moment, to keep the schools open.

There were valid public health reasons for this recommendation.  The principal one being the cat was already out of the bag since the virus was widely spread within the US before we knew what was happening.  For God's shake we allowed our dear president to visit Mexico at the height of their epidemic!  If we had understood what was going on, this visit would have never occurred.  

However, if the current Mexican Flu was a severe pandemic, like 1918 then it might well have been helpful to close the schools even thought the virus was in the community.  Why, because it is our beloved children that are the primary source of spread of pandemic flu within the community.  By separating them from their peers, the spread of flu can be slowed.

The purpose of NPIs is not preventing eventual infection. The purpose is to slow the viral transmission rate so that our ability to respond to the pandemic is more effective.  The faster the transmission rate, the faster our healthcare system becomes dysfunctional; something we wish to delay as long as possible.

That said, keeping kids out of school from being with other kids does not seem to be possible today.  We are too crowded, our parenting skills have diminished and the parents are too caught up in their own agendas to police our kids adequately to prevent them from congregating.

The fact that the kids from schools closed in NYC were still congregating was one of the reasons the Department of Health decided not to close schools in that city because it would do little good.  Sure, they closed schools with lots of cases but not those with a few even though they knew that the virus would be spread widely within those open but infected schools.

What this means to me is that early school closure as an effective NPI is pretty much a dead issue in today's society where in the US the majority of families have only one parent.  We here have moved beyond the nuclear family to the super nuclear family.

The economy comes first and always has no matter what anyone says.  As long as there is another widget to be made this takes priority over the lives of our children and those we love.

So, given this diatribe what should you do? Think for yourself.  Do not listen to what we are told in the MSM or by our government's "Public Information Officers" a species of human soon to make their appearance on the nation's airwaves.  Learn what needs to be learned about influenza pandemics and interpret the facts for yourself. This is what I think is the best way to cope with the situation.

Trust no one but yourself.  

GW


[ Parent ]
excellent analysis!
I think we are all learning how much more complicated reality is, compared to making paper plans



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Australian School Closure Plan..
The policy adopted here yesterday for the whole country is that any school that records a confirmed case of H1N1 will  immediately close for a week. In addition, any child returning from overseas from a known Swine Flu area (Britain, Mexico, USA and Japan) is to quarantine themselves for Seven days before returning to school.

that's where we were back in the third week of April
but once it is established in the community, the plans changed. I'm guessing it will for you folks, too, if it gets established.

[ Parent ]
Schools and Children Are The Problem.
I should have added that all but about Three of our Twenty or so known cases are kids in school settings.

I guess we are learning very fast that schools and kids are much more important vectors than we thought. The first deduction from that is that kids personal hygiene and school hygiene should perhaps have a higher priority than it does.


School hygiene
The problem with schools is that they are so densely populated and engage students in so many daily contacts that the biggest hygiene problem may be breathing. :-(

[ Parent ]
Duck and cover
People shouldn't just cough into their sleeves. They should also duck down so the trajectory of the cough or sneeze is aimed at the floor.

Oh, those buses are a problem. The A/B schedule idea would help. One student per seat. T-shirt masks, washed and disinfected nightly.


[ Parent ]
can those ideas be tried and researched now?


You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

Good question.
In the U.S., many schools are out soon.  Friday's our last day at my school.

Oops.
This comment was supposed to be a reply to Lugon.

[ Parent ]
First of all it is too late to close the schools now even though it should have been done already
Next week it is likely we will see the terrible consequences of following the "new" CDC guidance and not closing the schools.

The numbers of seriously ill and dead should rise pretty steadily in NY and elsewhere since the US is following the Mexican experience and is about 2 months behind it.

What we have learned from this is that economic considerations trump NPIs like social distancing.  The most important and effective NPI is rapid school closure.

While the morbidity and mortality from Mexican Flu may not be very high during this current wave, if this virus combines with H5N1 when it returns again the M&M could be quite a bit worst.

I have no confidence that TPTB will do the right thing.  It seems it makes no difference what party is running the government, what matters most is economics not public health.

GW


let's suppose none of what you suggest actually happens
what then? For example, i am not even certain yiou got the mexican experience correctly described (milder than fiorst thought.) Seems to be waning in canada and acroos the US.

Most PH folks I know are more concerned about fall than now (I am, too), and they may well be right. Of course, flu is unpredictable so we should watch and follow rather than assume.


[ Parent ]
Since in the US we are no longer testing anyone but hospitalized cases
it is hard to say what is happening.  The number of hospitalized cases and deaths from Mexican Flu is the only index we have now.

If you consider NYC a guide, the numbers of hospitalized cases has increased pretty significantly over the last week.

Have you any information of the the cause of death of the infant who died in NYC that was initially reported as being due to flu but then this was retracted?  Apparently this child was cyanotic prior to death, as Dr. Niman would say, a cause for concern.

Are you aware of any influenza cases hospitalized in the pediatric ICU in CT?

I hope that the US does not experience the same thing as happened in Mexico but for the life of me I see no reason we should not.

As stated, I have seen one case last week.  She has done well and is recovering.  She was treated as an out patient.

GW


[ Parent ]
there was only one hospitalized case in CT
of any kind, and they are now home.

The Connecticut Department of Public Health (DPH) today reported 29 new cases of novel H1N1 influenza (swine flu) among Connecticut residents of the following towns: Bridgeport, Granby, Greenwich, Manchester, New Haven, Norwalk, Prospect, Ridgefield, South Windsor, Southport, Stamford, Waterbury, Westport, and Wilton.

One Connecticut resident with confirmed novel H1N1 infection has been hospitalized.  This patient was discharged from the hospital and has fully recovered.

http://www.ct.gov/ctfluwatch/c...

The fact that the child in NYC (Elmhurst hospital) tested negative in NYC's DOH does not make that an issue of concern. Any pediatric death is always tragic, but there's no real suspicion it was a flu case. Autopsy and CDC reults for double checking flu specimens are pending.


[ Parent ]
Thanks
I hope this is the only case CT will see.

GW


[ Parent ]
it won't be
but hopefully they will all go home.

[ Parent ]
real time discussion in CT
In New York City, concerns about swine flu following the death of an assistant principal in Queens prompted the closure of 24 schools last week. In Greenwich, however, district officials say they are keeping schools open, citing Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines that discourage closure unless absentee rates are so high that a school cannot function. The guidelines leave the decision on closures up to local officials.

No schools in Connecticut closed last week.

"If protocol says the school should stay open, I disagree," said Fernandez, who is keeping her child out. "Parents should use common sense."

http://www.greenwichtime.com/c...


New CDC guidance says nothing about children at higher risk,
yet somewhere else they do have a list of those who should be given anti-virals because they're at higher risk, don't they?  (Pregnant women, the immuno-compromised, etc.)  Are there different rule-writing committees who don't talk to each other?  Are they afraid of stepping on local toes if they say that some kids should not expose themselves to this flu?  Or pregnant teachers or school volunteers, like room mothers?

The CDC is not doing the job parents expect it to do.  :-[

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/K12...

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
CDC info as well as from NYC always repeat the
seaosnal flu mantra: under 2 and over 65, those with underlying health conditions, etc.  

Problem is, most of those getting sick with H1N1 are under 60 and most of the hospitalized are under 40.  That covers a huge swath of the student and teacher population.  If teachers stop showing up for school, you have no school anyway.  

Also, most of the "underlying health conditions" that hospitalized patients have are asthma, diabetes, obesity and heart disease.  How many students and staff have those conditions in this country?  Literally millions.  


[ Parent ]
see comment below
I've missed it if any policy anywhere advises healthy, but high risk, groups to not go to school if they are well.

Teachers and parents can both close a school by not showing up. Usually there's more pressure from them to close a school earlier than from the mayor, or school boards, or public health.


[ Parent ]
CDC will not determine local policy
particularly about schools. They give broad guidance, but even locally, the advice is to pay attention to high risk groups, and treat high risk grouyps with tamiflu, not to keep high risk groups home when well. if that is policy, I missed it.


[ Parent ]
Yes that is their role. But if they are providing flawed guidance
then parents can't make fully informed choices.  

[ Parent ]
what's flawed about it?
just curious.

[ Parent ]
IMO, what's flawed is that the guidance isn't protective of children or adults with vulnerabilities.
I suppose we'll see whether hospitalizations shoot up soon, when more pregnant teachers and kids with asthma catch it.  I think those classes of people should be warned that it's risky, but OTOH it could be protective in the second wave if they survive.  It's sort of an experiment, right?   Just no consent form.  

Are we assuming that parents of kids with HIV or transplants or auto-immune diseases already know enough to keep them home?  Somewhere it was suggested that their doctors should inform them, but it wasn't a mandate, IIRC.

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
some of those kids (not pregnancy)
go on prophylaxis during flu season. of course, there's no shots for swine flu, but that's not going to make anyone flu proofn seasonal flu season either.

[ Parent ]
I don't have the stats here
but something like 40% of all hospitalized cases have asthma, 15% diabetes...I'll try and find it and post it - it was published a few days ago.  Anyway, the public is not being told these facts.  The MSM just says "underlying conditions" without much else.  And they say it in kind of a tone of "it was the victims' fault because they had an underlying condition."

As a case in point, I told a friend who kids all suffer badly from allergies and two have asthma.  Her kids get sick a lot and tend to stay sick longer.  When I told her about the asthma stats she flipped.  There are several confirmed cases in our public schools (high school and elemntary but not middle school YET).  She had never heard such information.  She is also over weight which is also listed as a "complication."  She has now started prepping for the first time in her life and kept her youngest out of preschool as a precaution since they are absolutely terrible about hygeine.

Perhaps the info is out ther but it really isn't getting through to folks.  


[ Parent ]
again, excellent point
the NYC list was only published 2-3 days ago, and I think most people do not understand what "underlying medical condition" means, and that is not their fault they don't, it's a PH job to explain it.

And they say it in kind of a tone of "it was the victims' fault because they had an underlying condition."

Well, I dunno about that... more to reassure than to assign blame, I'd say.


[ Parent ]
To reassure the truly healthy, but how many of us lie to ourselves?
Or it doesn't even have to be a lie, if we're ignorant of what conditions count.  

"I'm not fat, just a little plump."
"I get exercise walking around Walmart."
"I'm fine; I always carry my asthma/diabetes/whatever medicine."  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
that's what the comments were
whaddya mean underying condition? he was a healthy asthmatic? She was pregnant and healthy? etc...

[ Parent ]
Honey, does this virus make me look fat? nt


ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
"Parents should use common sense"
Absolutely correct. Very sound advice from Ms. Fernandez.  As parents we must remember that at times our agenda and those of the state do not correspond. An influenza pandemic may well be one of those times. If it is or not depends on the parents understanding of the circumstances.  To understand means becoming educated about these issues.  Only an informed parent can make the correct choice for his or her child.

IMO it would not be wise to depend upon the state to make these choices for us.  We must make them for our children and ourselves.

GW


[ Parent ]
Mayor Says More School Closings Won't Stop Swine Flu's Spread
Mayor Says More School Closings Won't Stop Swine Flu's Spread

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05...

As New York City officials prepared to reopen 20 public schools shut down because of the swine flu, Mayor Michael R. Bloomberg warned on Monday that further closings would not slow the march of the virus.

After weeks in which many parents, teachers, union leaders and elected officials have demanded more closings, the mayor declared bluntly that shutting schools "has absolutely nothing to do with the spread of the disease."

He said the closings had not prevented children from gathering elsewhere. Noting that the flu is spread by contact between people, he added, "That is exactly what's going to happen if the kids don't go to school and instead go to the shopping mall or go to the park."

Yet he refrained from urging children citywide to attend classes, saying the decision was ultimately up to parents.

The mayor's comments, made before a Memorial Day parade in Whitestone, Queens, reflected a degree of frustration with the administration's critics, and with the city's limited ability to control the spread of the flu in the month since hundreds of students at St. Francis Preparatory School in Fresh Meadows, Queens, became sick in late April.

City officials explained on Friday that the rationale for closing schools was not to slow the spread of virus, but to protect particularly vulnerable people - very young children, the elderly, pregnant women and those with a chronic medical condition like asthma or diabetes - from exposure to the flu at the affected schools.
New York City has closed more than 40 public schools because of the H1N1 virus; it has had 330 confirmed cases, with 126 people admitted to hospitals and two deaths, the health department said Monday.

City officials declined to provide additional details about the second fatality except to say that a Queens woman in her 50s had died over the weekend. Mr. Bloomberg said the woman's family had requested privacy, but he noted that she had an underlying health condition that made her more vulnerable. "She did not work in the school system is the one thing I'll say," the mayor said.

Mitchell Wiener, an assistant principal at a Queens middle school who died on May 17, was the city's first swine flu fatality.

Of the 20 schools or school programs scheduled to reopen on Tuesday, 16 are in Queens, 2 in the Bronx and 1 each in Manhattan and Brooklyn. Another 17 public schools will remain closed on Tuesday. Five others that were closed in early May have since reopened.

Margie Feinberg, a spokeswoman for the Department of Education, said on Monday that officials at the 20 reopening schools had spent the weekend calling parents and getting out the word about the resumption of classes. "We are hoping for high attendance," she said. Some city schools reported last week that as many as two-thirds of their students were absent. And on Friday, when classes resumed at Public School 16 in Corona, Queens, and Intermediate School 5 in Elmhurst, Queens, the attendance rates were 52 percent and 56 percent, respectively.

Representatives of the teachers' and principals' unions said on Monday that they supported the decision to reopen the 20 schools.

"We heard no complaints," said Ron Davis, a spokesman for the teachers' union, the United Federation of Teachers. "I think the teachers are eager to get back to the schools, now that they've been cleaned, so they can get on with educating these children and preparing for the end of the school year."

Even so, the level of worry remains high at many schools. "This is a very anxiety-provoking period, and there has to be a great deal of ambivalence about returning to school, even though I'm mostly hearing enthusiasm," said Chiara Coletti, a spokeswoman for the Council of School Supervisors and Administrators, the principals' union.

George Benedetto, the co-chairman of the Parent-Teacher Association at one of the schools to be reopened, Middle School 158 in Bayside, Queens, said his oldest son had been sent home with flulike symptoms even before the school was ordered closed on May 17.

Mr. Benedetto, who instructs paramedics, said he was worried that children with coughs would not be allowed to return to school. "I've never seen parents this concerned," he added.

He said that if officials had decided to close schools to slow the spread of swine flu, they should have warned students not to gather outside school. "Do I think the city dropped the ball on this?" he asked. "Yes."

In response to such criticisms, the city's health commissioner, Dr. Thomas R. Frieden, and the schools chancellor, Joel I. Klein, said on Friday that deciding to close a school "balances a definite harm - lost education, parental wages, school nutrition programs and possible unsupervised children - with a possible benefit."

On Monday, the mayor tried to reassure the public. "In some senses, if you have H1N1, you should consider yourself lucky, because so far it seems to be a milder flu than the garden variety," he said. "Now, I don't want to suggest you should try to go out and get it."


thanks for posting that here
impolitic comment, to say the least.

[ Parent ]
NY Sighence: Once Cleaned, Forever Disinfected. Whew. What relief. (snark)
"We heard no complaints," said Ron Davis, a spokesman for the teachers' union, the United Federation of Teachers. "I think the teachers are eager to get back to the schools, now that they've been cleaned so they can get on with educating these children and preparing for the end of the school year."

Thank goodness.

Now we know.

You get the flu from the desks, not infected children who are coughing and sneezing and wiping their hands on desks and doorknobs (and everything else - including you.)

Evidently the New Sighence being taught in New York has proved conclusively that one good cleaning and we're set.  (That and school closures have nothing to do with the spread of the flu.)

Gaaaaaaaaaaaaa!

Yes, cleaned is better than not cleaned, especially if, after schools restart, it is continued on surfaces most likely to present common exposure.

But it's not like the virus spontaneously appeared on the desks and doorhandles.  It came from the little two-legged virus factories that are on their merry way back into these highly efficient distribution centers.

We can (and do) disagree about the school closure policy, but there is no need to fabricate lies (like Bloomberg has) or to contribute to continued misunderstandings (like this statement about "cleaning" does.)

It ain't over yet and these little flu-fibs contribute to public ignorance that may come back to haunt us if the next wave goes really sour on us.    

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
the 'wiping the schools down' comment was adressed
in CT by DPH as 'of marginal benefit' in a state hearing.

[ Parent ]
If they are relying on 'wipe downs' they better be prepared
to do it correctly.

Contamination & Cleaning

How long can influenza virus remain viable on objects (such as books and doorknobs)?
Studies have shown that influenza virus can survive on environmental surfaces and can infect a person for up to 2-8 hours after being deposited on the surface.

What kills influenza virus?
Influenza virus is destroyed by heat (167-212°F [75-100°C]). In addition, several chemical germicides, including chlorine, hydrogen peroxide, detergents (soap), iodophors (iodine-based antiseptics), and alcohols are effective against human influenza viruses if used in proper concentration for a sufficient length of time. For example, wipes or gels with alcohol in them can be used to clean hands. The gels should be rubbed into hands until they are dry.

What surfaces are most likely to be sources of contamination?
Germs can be spread when a person touches something that is contaminated with germs and then touches his or her eyes, nose, or mouth. Droplets from a cough or sneeze of an infected person move through the air. Germs can be spread when a person touches respiratory droplets from another person on a surface like a desk, for example, and then touches their own eyes, mouth or nose before washing their hands.

How should waste disposal be handled to prevent the spread of influenza virus?
To prevent the spread of influenza virus, it is recommended that tissues and other disposable items used by an infected person be thrown in the trash. Additionally, persons should wash their hands with soap and water after touching used tissues and similar waste.

What household cleaning should be done to prevent the spread of influenza virus?
To prevent the spread of influenza virus it is important to keep surfaces (especially bedside tables, surfaces in the bathroom, kitchen counters and toys for children) clean by wiping them down with a household disinfectant according to directions on the product label.

How should linens, eating utensils and dishes of persons infected with influenza virus be handled?
Linens, eating utensils, and dishes belonging to those who are sick do not need to be cleaned separately, but importantly these items should not be shared without washing thoroughly first.

Linens (such as bed sheets and towels) should be washed by using household laundry soap and tumbled dry on a hot setting. Individuals should avoid "hugging" laundry prior to washing it to prevent contaminating themselves. Individuals should wash their hands with soap and water or alcohol-based hand rub immediately after handling dirty laundry.

Eating utensils should be washed either in a dishwasher or by hand with water and soap.


http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/qa.htm

Childcare Facilities

3.3 SANITATION, DISINFECTION, AND MAINTENANCE

STANDARD 3.028

Routine Frequency of Cleaning and Sanitation

The routine frequency of cleaning and sanitation in the facility shall be as indicated in the table below. This frequency shall be increased from baseline routine frequencies whenever there are outbreaks of illness, there is known contamination, visible soil, or when recommended by the health department to control certain infectious diseases. All surfaces, furnishings, and equipment that are not in good repair or that have been contaminated by body fluids shall be taken out of service until they are repaired, cleaned, and, if contaminated, sanitized effectively.


http://nrckids.org/CFOC/HTMLVe...
Antimicrobial Products Registered for Use Against the H1N1 Flu and Other Influenza A Viruses on Hard Surfaces
http://www.epa.gov/oppad001/in...

While not directly applicable, I would assume that any increases in the "baseline" of Environmental Infection Control in schools and childcare settings could gain valuable guidance from this:
Guideline for Environmental Infection Control in Health-Care Facilities
http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/dhqp...

Environmental infection control
Routine cleaning and disinfection strategies used during influenza seasons can be applied to the environmental management of swine influenza.  Management of laundry, utensils and medical waste should also be performed in accordance with procedures followed for seasonal influenza. (See Guideline for Environmental Infection Control in Health-Care Facilities, 2003.

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/gui...

Unless they are really just planning a BYOV party at the local PS.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
Don't close if 1/3 should stay home?
The May 27th news thread had a news story that noted that up to 1/3 of NY people might have an underlying condition that means increased risk with H1N1 flu. If these people are properly advised, should they stay home when the flu is endemic? If 1/3 or even 1/5 of students stay home, should a school stay open? I just see a disconnect between rational risk management for the vulnerable and the position that one week school closures are just not worth it.  

[ Parent ]
24 hours and you're good to go
http://www.tahoebonanza.com/ar...
[excerpt]
Due to the continuation of newly confirmed cases of the H1N1 flu in Washoe County particularly among students, the Washoe County District Health Department strongly urges anyone who shows signs of the flu (fever of 100 degrees F. plus a cough and/or sore throat) to stay home for seven days. If the symptoms last longer, you need to stay home for an additional 24 hours after the symptoms end. This is to prevent the spread of the H1N1 flu to others, some of whom could develop serious complications if they become ill.  

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

that's standard medical advice
it's not 24 h, it's 7 days plus 24 h. and since the most amount of viral shedding is in the forst few days., it's sensible advice.

stay home for 7 days after your symptoms begin or until you have been symptom-free for 24 hours, whichever is longer

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/gui...


[ Parent ]
I was under the impression
that kids could pass the flu on for up to 10 days after the end of symptoms.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

[ Parent ]
they can, but generally it's more in the day care age
the viral shedding goes down significantly after day 2-3, adn goes along with fever. No fever after a week, and you're back to work/school.

"Viral shedding in nasal secretions usually peaks during the first 3 days of illness and ceases within 7 days but can be prolonged in young children and immunodeficient patients. Viral shedding correlates directly with height of fever."


[ Parent ]
IL school funding not affected by single school closings
Swine flu closings force schools to squeeze schedules
Most do not plan to extend the school year

....State education officials said the missed days will not be tacked on to the school year because, in most cases, a single school within a larger district shut down while the rest remained open. An absence that affects an entire district must be recouped, but one that affects an individual school does not, said Marjorie Beck, a principal consultant with the state education agency.

As a result, some schools will have fewer than the 180 school days that are required by state law.

Heeding the lessons of the swine flu scare, officials with the Illinois State Board of Education want to change the law that governs how schools account for days missed during a public health crisis. The proposed measure would allow schools that close because of a health emergency, such as the swine flu, to claim the full days of attendance and not jeopardize their share of state funding that's based, in part, on a daily head count, Beck said....


http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

We need a law making it easier to close an entire system, not one that encourages piece-meal reactions, though.

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


I believe the state of MA has said something similar
Let's hope other states adopt it as well.  Really, in the grand scheme of things, will kids lives be forever damaged if they only had 165 days of school instead of 180?  Plus at this time of year students and staff are ready to check out any way.  Enough with the 180 day obsession!  

[ Parent ]
from the CDC press briefing
Lisa Chamoff: Thanks for speaking with us today.  My question focuses on school closures, and I know many schools have been applying, the most recent CDC recommendations not to close school unless there's a magnitude of absenteeism that interferes with activities.  I'm wondering given the research you've done recently and especially in region one and two there's a lot of emerging new cases.  Any updated guidelines or advice on whether schools should close if they are seeing an uptick in cases and is there a point when closing the school would, you know, stop any, any increased transmission?

Anne Schuchat: The school guidance that CDC has issued has not been updated since, I believe, May 5th or so, and that guidance, either that interim guidance really tried to incorporate what we had learned about this virus, its severity, and transmissibility in contrast to some of the more severe pandemic strains that we studied from the past like the 1918 strain.  And that guidance continues to be that school dismissal for the purposes of slowing transmission was not recommended for this virus. We had initially recommended it at the beginning of the response.  Instead, we suggested that local authorities make these decisions and then a factor for dismissals might be when the absentee rate was such among students or staff that the school couldn't really function well.  The issues that local authority will take into account in addition to the severity of the virus which is what we were trying to help with, would be multiple, you know, the size and staffing at the school, what services the students will have if they aren't there in class, where you are in the school calendar, what are the competing needs and balance the value of being in school with the potential protection that might be afforded by not being in school.  The focus of our guidance and most of the local authority's guidance has been that if you are in school we think it's important that those who are ill stay home and that, you know, people recover from their illnesses at home.  That children who are found to be ill at school be sent home so that they can be taken care of and not, you know, have to beat the school environment.  So we, our current guidance continues to be school dismissals aren't recommended for the purpose of slowing transmission but may be needed based on local decision making because of the functioning of the school.  

http://www.cdc.gov/media/trans...

Bless the CDC for speaking the truth.  That sending sick kids home is not for the purpose of slowing transmission, but for their wellbeing.

NYC has a lot to learn.  I don't know what will happen when Frieden takes over the CDC.  Fingers crossed.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


well, of course
you close a school to slow transmission.  They are not trying to do that, they are trying to take care of individual sick kids.

And that guidance continues to be that school dismissal for the purposes of slowing transmission was not recommended for this virus.
 

That's CDC, not NYC. I am confused by what you have been writing. What do you want NYC to do? What do you want CDC to do? Ideal world ;-)


[ Parent ]
I want NYC to communicate a lot better than they have been doing ;-)
Parents need to LEARN what school closure can or cannot achieve, so that they can properly evaluate what authorities are doing, and participate in the dialog.  This is especially important looking at what may come in a few months.  Many more decisions need to be made about school closures.  

Public opinion often affects policy, but policy will be warped if it's driven by misguided public opinion as a result of confusing statements from officials.  That's ALL I'm saying.

As for the CDC, I think they are doing fine.  ;-)  Can't be better.  Just MHO, others may have a different take.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
I share revere's opinion
I have some minor complaints about CDC's messaging (it is false that 36,000 people die of flu every year; no one is served by repeating a falsehood), but I think for the most part they have done it right. Be straightforward about what plausibly might happen and what we do and don't know. The differences between New York's messaging and CDC's have been relatively small but important. They involve tone and the seriousness with which they take the situation. I want to think that this is mainly Bloomberg and not his health commissioner, Thomas Frieden (who will take over as the next CDC Director in June).

I guess we'll see pretty soon. Fingers crossed.

including fingers crossed (bolding mine)

http://scienceblogs.com/effect...



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
so do i
and think bloomberg especially can do better.

[ Parent ]
Elaborating on what I said above; we can cross off early school closure as an effective NPI.
Why because in the US it is highly unlikely to be implemented properly. I no longer think the politicians or the public health officials have the guts to close the schools before the virus has reached them.  What's more I do not think many parents have the discipline to prevent their kids from gathering together in the event the schools were closed.  So, IMO while early school closure is probably THE MOST EFFECTIVE NPI to slow viral spread, I can not see it being implemented effectively in the US given the current circumstances.  

What the experience of this first month of the new pandemic has taught me is this: no one in national or local government thinks the cost of widespread school closure in response to an unpredictable novel influenza virus outbreak is justified by the benefit.

The benefit of closing the schools to reduce the transmission rate of the virus.  This is greatest when done before the virus has affected the children in the school. It is not possible to tell during the initial stages of an influenza pandemic how severe it will be later on.  

The message from our national and local public health authorities and leadership is quite clear "as long as the virus appears mild" they will always err on the side of keeping the schools open despite the fact they have no idea what may develop later in the course of the pandemic.

So, IMO those societies governed like those in North American and the EU can forget about receiving the potential benefit of early school closure as a NPI to slow viral transmission.

Why is this a tragedy? Because it means that when these societies are affected by a more lethal pandemic influenza strain in the future than what we are currently seeing from Mexican Flu, the failure to close schools before the virus has already spread to the students who attend them will mean that it will spread much more quickly within the community as a whole than would be the case if the schools were closed early.  

The more rapid the spread of the virus, the more quickly a community's healthcare resources become depleted and overwhelmed.  When these facilities are no longer functional, it is not just the seriously ill influenza patients who experience an exaggerated CFR it is all the other people with acute exacerbation of chronic disease and serious accidents who are also unable to be given usual care.  The result will be a higher morbidity and mortality rate for all causes not just flu and that is why the failure to slow the transmission rate of a severe influenza pandemic virus is tragic.  Tragic because if it was slowed, even some there would be fewer preventable deaths than otherwise.

GW


I don't agree
If you think back to the beginning of this outbreak, and the CDC's response, they were rapidly ramping up to close schools aggressively.  It was only when the data became clearer that they switched their recommendations.  It tells me that the will to implement NPI is intact, at the federal level.  

At the local level, a lot depends on public opinion and pressure.  You can see from NYC that, as we expected throughout our discussions in the past few years, parents do NOT tolerate risks to kids well.  As soon as the first death started, more and more parents were keeping kids home.  And these are all adult deaths.  As soon as you see 1 or 2 pediatric deaths in a community with ongoing outbreaks, parents WILL keep kids home no matter what.  

Parents the world over are not that different.  The experience with seasonal flu in Hong Kong last year was instructive.  In all, 2 kids died, in a city of 7 million, but the clamor for school closure was so powerful that the government had to do a U-turn.

All these lessons will not go unnoticed. Sure the first cities might not know the CFR, but since this is a global outbreak, we should be able to get a pretty good sense of severity on an ongoing basis.  If, for example, the CDC gives out recommendations for more proactive school closure due to evidence of increased severity, it will take a brave health official to defy both expert opinion AND public opinion.  

And that's not even taking into account the fear of litigation.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
so, the problem now becomes
Do we get ready for school closure?  How?  When?

What's needed for this public health measure to be as effective as can be, and as little disruptive as can be or, hey, even helpful [1] for NPI as a whole?

[1] Yes, it helps if older students take care of the younger ones, cos both are at home, at least for longer hours.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
Other Closures
Although I don't support city-wide school closures in this particular influenza event, in the face of a more virulant influenza, I am all for it.  Without question I think it would be the right thing to do.  I do not think that school closures would resolve the problem though.  It would take closing of movie theatres, sports centers and other kid/family friendly venues to stop the spread.  

I just don't think that parents would keep children home and away from each other in the event of school closures.  My indication of this is the school of the daughter of a friend of mine closed.  As a result, she kept all the kids home.  What did she do with them for the week?  She took them to movies, bowling, Chuck E. Cheese, etc.

So, school closures are all fine and good, but how do you get parents to keep the kids home and away from each other?


[ Parent ]
"close schools -> they meet outside school"
1) The number of contacts is much less if they meet outside school.  This is my general assessment, may not be correct in every instance, and some people may want to see the data.

2) Also, not enough money to have them going out to movies each and every day of a long closure period.  So it will self-regulate.  (I can imagine news about severe cases might also help with this self-regulation, with gangs becoming less numerous if deaths rise.)

3) Preparedness would include designing ways to keep kids at home at least some days, staggering out-days.  Someone suggested stocking up on batteries for their PlayGameBox.  Distant education, too.

There may be other ideas in this area.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
closing movie theaters etc
Yes, that makes sense too.

Swiss-cheese layers with holes in different places, providing more protection than each layer by itself.

It's just that some layers are more important than others.  In most places, "respiratory density" at schools is higher than anywhere else.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
even if the kids don't stay home
they are exposed to far fewer people than they would in school.  Especially for high school kids.  

Run this movie in your head.  Imagine you are a high school student.  You go to school on a school bus, 50 kids per bus, maybe different kids in the morning vs the afternoon.  You have 6-8 classes a day, with different kids.  For every change of class, you move through hallways, locker rooms, coming into close contact with many people every time.  At lunch, you stand in line and eat in a packed cafeteria.  etc etc

On a conservative estimate, a high school student in a big city school comes within CLOSE contact with AT LEAST a couple of hundred people a day.  You can't reproduce that amount of contact on day out, even if you go to movies etc.  It's not about totally keeping your kids isolated.  It's about reducing average number of contacts per kid, which reduces transmission and thereby protects everyone.

Finally, during a severe pandemic, there will be far fewer parents letting their kids go out.  



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
oh, even if they are the same kids
on the school bus every time, when you meet them next, some of them may already be infected in the interval.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
I bet this has been tested already
I think it's right, but if people want to test it, now's the time.  It's as easy as asking a thousand kids to count a weekday and a weekend day.

One point is, school dismissed kids can be flexible in how many other kids they meet.  I mean, it will not only tend to be a smaller number than non-dismissed kids, but it will also be flexible and a function of perceived severity.  An even harder pandemic will cause even higher levels of compliance.  As should be.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
My hope is that if another round is more severe
is that kids, esepcially older ones, will understand it is serious and be less likely to want to go to the mall.  My 9 and 12yo kids were initially quite concerned when this started to break.  Then they heard the news about it being less severe and started to relax a bit.  The conflicing data about the severity in Mexico vs here made for some heated discussions about pulling them out of school.  Kids (most :)) are smart.  They don't always make the right choices.  But if they hear people are dying, hopefully hanging out at the mall will sound a lot less appealing.  After a few weeks of boredom it may be tougher to get complaince with the older ones.  At least with younger kids they have no transportation without mom or dad!  

[ Parent ]
LOL
That's like when parents complain that their 9 year old eats too much junk food. Who does the shopping, again?

[ Parent ]
agree with Susan
it's all about the severity, even at state and local level.

[ Parent ]
Severity key at the family and personal level
People will support and attempt to comply with responses that they feel are proportionate to the threat.

At this point parents will only do so much to keep their kids from gathering together outside of school given the severity they are seeing in the news and in their own community.

If this virus was infecting many more school kids and killing even slightly more school kids (especially healthy school kids without underlying health conditions that were essentially indistinguishable from their own children) the public response and willingness of parents and family members to accept and enforce social distancing would go up immediately and significantly.

What was missing from this event was the expected adjustment period where we could watch the preliminary stages of the pandemic unfold in some distant land, take its measure as it ebbed and flowed in our direction and then decide for ourselves what level of resolve was necessary to meet the level of threat it presented.

Instead, it sucker-punched us and was all over us before we even knew its real name.

In many ways we reacted better than I had hoped. To the degree that we eased off from the initial response level, rightly or wrongly it was in response to what seemed to be the ever-so-slowly emerging data of the lagging indicators and our conclusions about what those indicators told us of the depth and breadth of the threat.  (Of course our sense of time in these matters is highly warped by our modern world of instant real-time global news coverage and expectations based on the made-for-TV miracles of 60-minute CSI.  Our impatient and unrealistic sense of time is also almost unrecognizably different from any previous historical experience.)

But if you changed the results of those initial indicators, adding more illness and death, from which we could not somehow emotionally distance ourselves, the initial response would have continued and stiffened in response to the higher perceived threat.

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
I think that's right
and that's why some (not all, by any means) of the criticism of tptb, especially in NYC< is unfair. Some is perfectly fair (for example, Bloomberg, or the false steps on "underlying medical condition".

[ Parent ]
SusanC-
By the time the locals know what's going on it will be too late to implement early school closure as an NPI.  Sure, there will be closures after kids start dying, but at that point the effort will be much less useful than it otherwise would have been.

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"


[ Parent ]
that may (or may not) be true
for the first cities affected, but as we know not everyone will be affected at the same time.  Plus we can get some idea of severity from overseas.  

We can say whatever we want here, but whether there is sufficient public support for drastic school closures depends a lot on the evolving situation.  Thus all plans are approximations, and usually only serve as guidance.  The ultimate decision has to be made by your local community.

If you are interested in protecting your community, then the time to talk about school closure is now.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Yes Susan I agree that we disagree on one important point
being that when the CDC reversed its school closure policy is was just to soon to know what the CAR and CFR were going to be.  As I point out above, we still do not know and won't find out for a week or two from now.

I think that they should ether close the schools very early during a pandemic or just say they are not going to do so and state the responsibility for this is local school board or the patients.  

As for Lugon's question, there is no "good" or "less harmful" way to close the schools. Doing so creates havoc for working parents, especially those without a spouse or someone trustworthy nearby to watch the child.  It is very disruptive to the workforce and what's more it also affects the economically disadvantaged disproportionally because more well-to-do parents can pay to pay someone to look after the child while few in the lower economic brackets can afford to do so.  In this respect, school closure results in a socially unequal effect on the poor and lower middle class compared with more affluent members of society.  

GW


[ Parent ]
I *do* agree, Doctor.
While the US Federal Government may or may not have the courage to recommend early school closure, school closure is LOCALLY IMPLEMENTED, and the locals have learned the wrong lesson.

If this virus makes a significant change for the worse, it will be days to weeks before the new severity is known, and by that time it will likely be too late.

If this gets severe, we're screwed.

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"


[ Parent ]
don't agree with that
depends where it gets severe. And locals will be happy to close schools any time it looks bad. As to whether it's "too late" is entirely unclear, as some would be helped. But once it's in the community, schools will close and public gatherings will decline, all by choice.

[ Parent ]
Will locals close schools if it looks bad somewhere else?
Reaction time will be very important.  Wherever a new high-CFR strain starts, will other states pay attention and close the schools early enough, before it gets too close?  I'm not sure they learned the lesson that they can't wait for illness in their own schools.  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
if it happens in Chile and Argentina?
I personally know a lot of people paying attention.

[ Parent ]
or Asia, which may have more predictive value
with the emphasis on the word may.

Here's why



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
really?
depends where it gets severe.

When we had an apparent 1-2% CFR right next door in Mexico, what was the reaction?

I think that TPTB are unfortunately going to keep their heads firmly embedded in the .....sand until it is too late.

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"


[ Parent ]
Close Schools As Soon As We Know It Is Deadly
Sorry, but I have lost a child and I can tell you it is the worst thing that can happen in your life.  As soon as I know the flu has become deadly and is spreading throught the U.S., I will ask for a leave of absence and pull my kid out of school.

St. Louis closed the schools early in the panemic in 1918 and they lost fewer children and adults than cities that did not close early.  

Learn from history and our mistakes of the past.  If we do not learn from the past we will suffer larger losses of lives than the past because of our larger close knit communities/cities.


schools WILL close if deadly enough
the real issue is, do we prepare for it?  And if so, how?  If this doesn't beg another diary, I don't know what does.  Please, someone beat me to it.  We need a whole set of "proactive" diaries.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

[ Parent ]
Three children have died in the last two days
an 11yo in NYC, 12yo in CA and a 5yo in CT.  Last week a 9yo died in CA.  I have kids all thowe ages.  To me that's deadly. I am so glad their school finished last week and they are home now (although a week of non-stop rain is about to put me over the edge!).  I my kids still had a week or so left of school, I'd probably yank them at thihs point.  

[ Parent ]
I think they really need to look into that
for the fall.  They need to be more proactive with school closure then.  Among other things, parents won't care whether these kids had pre-existing conditions.  Kids are kids.  Most kids with health challenges are still able to live a full life.  A premature death is still a great tragedy.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
CIDRAP Promising Practices - School Toolkits
It will be interesting to see how these played out in the real world.

http://www.pandemicpractices.o...

School toolkits

Pandemic Flu School Action Kit (CA)
A downloadable action kit for K-12 schools provides a variety of communications tools for use before, during, and after a pandemic. The sample letters for parents discuss school...   >> More

Pandemic Influenza Toolkit for Educators (MI)
The Pandemic Influenza Toolkit for Educators is a one-stop shop for pandemic preparedness information needed by every school. The web site includes a Breeze presentation from state...   >> More

Preparing for Pandemic Flu in New Mexico Schools (NM)
The New Mexico school toolkit proposes an excellent web-based strategy for communicating pandemic influenza information to three distinct audiences in the state school system. These...   >> More

Pandemic Influenza Planning Kit for Schools (GA)
The Planning Kit for Schools has the potential to increase pandemic influenza awareness, assist schools in maintaining continuity of education, and serve as a resource for the greater...   >> More

Pandemic Influenza Toolkit Process (IL)
McHenry County's pandemic preparedness toolkits contain a variety of good templates and posters that could be used by any organization. Included are a Pandemic Planning Outline for...   >> More

Pandemic Action Kit for Schools -- New York (NY)
The Pandemic Action Kit for Schools offers templates and tools that incorporate the CDC's interim guidance on community disease mitigation, which calls for a maximum 12-week closure of...   >> More

Pandemic Influenza Toolkit for Ohio Schools (OH)
The Pandemic Influenza Toolkit for Ohio Schools was designed by the Ohio Department of Health to assist schools in their pandemic preparedness efforts. The toolkit is a compilation of...   >> More

Pandemic action kit for schools (MI)
The Pandemic Action Kit for Schools provides schools with practical tools they may need to prepare for pandemic influenza or other public health emergencies. The kit is a colorful,...   >> More

My guess is they will all be subject to some fine tuning.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


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