News Reports for June 14, 2009

Penna: Milton Hershey School Tests Students for SF-

[size=18]Milton Hershey School tests students for swine flu, asks only seniors and families to attend graduation[/size]
http://www.pennlive.com/midsta...

Eight students at the Milton Hershey School have been tested for the H1N1 virus, or swine flu, after a higher than average number of students were admitted to the Derry Township school's health center.

[b]So far, seven of those tests have been positive for Type A influenza, but school spokeswoman Connie McNamara said further testing will be done.

"There are no confirmed cases of swine flu on campus," McNamara said.[/b]

As an added precaution, McNamara said the school is asking only graduating seniors and their families to attend Sunday's graduation ceremonies to reduce the number of people coming in and out of the campus.

(Continued at link, above)

[b]Comment:[/b] [i]I'm curious to see how this plays out.  The bolding is a tricky quote, since we know that this is NOT flu season and so that only leaves one other option!  [/i]

www.EmergencyHomePreparation.org -- A 'card-catalog' style of prepping information.   -

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by: Readymom @ Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 23:15:45 PM CDT

Tobago confirms another case

http://www.trinidadexpress.com...

Tobago has recorded one more case of swine flu, bringing the confirmed total of cases to three, and 11 suspected cases.

(snip)

Yesterday meetings were held with the Medical Staff and some members of the Task Force Committee to continue adjusting Tobago's approach in decreasing the effects of any threat from swine flu.

"As of Tuesday June 16th, an additional screening site for persons exhibiting flu-like symptoms will be located at the Canaan Health Centre.

"The Portable Isolation Containment System (PICS) will be relocated from the hospital to the Canaan Health Centre to accommodate a separate area for evaluation.

"The old Geriatric Unit at the hospital would be used as the alternate isolation area and, should the need arise, Roxborough Health Centre would be offering evaluation services for 'flu-like' symptoms on Monday, Wednesday and Friday from 8 a.m. to 4 p.m.," THA Health Secretary Pilgrim said.

Meanwhile, the Bishop's High School remains closed and will re-open on June 22.

Locals as well as visitors have started wearing masks around the island, and citizens are advised to exercise proper health practices.

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

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by: KathyinFL @ Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 23:24:03 PM CDT

National influenza A (H1N1) total up to 26

The Mekong Delta reported its first influenza A (H1N1) case Friday as a teenager in Tien Giang Province tested positive for the virus, adding to Thursday's national tally of 25 cases.

Blood tests done by the Ho Chi Minh City Pasteur Institute on the 14- year-old overseas Vietnamese, identified only as Nguyen Tran D. C., showed the teen carrying the virus. The patient was admitted to Tien Giang General Hospital on Wednesday with high fever, but escaped later in afternoon and had to be brought back on Thursday after the results.

A relative, identified as Tran Chanh D. of the same age, has also been isolated for treatment at the hospital, pending tests, after showing symptoms of high fever and coughing Friday.

The Tien Giang Health Department has listed 15 people who have had physical contact with the patient since the latter's arrival at Tan Son Nhat International Airport last week. Two of them had left the province on a trip Friday. The department has taken blood samples from all the patient's family members for testing.

Before the case in Tien Giang, the Ministry of Health on Thursday reported 25 patients had been detected with the disease thus far, most of them people coming home from the US. The number includes one person detected with the virus in Hanoi and others in Ho Chi Minh City.

Officials on Friday found 13 passengers at the Tan Son Nhat International Airport arriving with body temperatures above 38 degrees Celsius, and quarantined them in different hospitals in the city, pending test results.

Eight patients in the city have recovered and been discharged since the first case of the virus was found on May 31, the city Health Department said Friday.

The number of cases in Vietnam is still small, said department director Nguyen Van Chau, stressing that the country will continue observing individual cases instead of switching to community observation. Continued: http://www.thanhniennews.com/h...


Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 23:25:05 PM CDT

Sebelius promises swine flu vaccine

http://www.upi.com/Top_News/20...

WASHINGTON, June 13 (UPI) -- The United States could have a vaccine for swine flu available for distribution by September, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius said.

The H1N1 strain appeared for the first time only recently and has already been reported in all 50 states. No vaccine has been developed, but the federal government has allotted $1 billion to developing one, The Washington Times reported Saturday.


Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

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by: KathyinFL @ Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 23:27:36 PM CDT

Stuff likes this drives me nuts!

The United States could have a vaccine for swine flu available for distribution by September...

MSM picks it up and the public says "Oh see.  There will be a shot for that.  No worries."  They don't notice the word "could" nor do they pay attention to the difficulties in developing a viable, safe vaccine.  And to get it ready for distribution by September!  Did anyone tell them it's mid-June already?  And I "could" go on a worldwide cruise "IF" I win the lottery.  What are the chances of that? eye roll.

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by: LauraB @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 05:58:05 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

...Nor does it mention how much

I notice she also doesn't promise to have enough for everyone! :-} And we all know what the chances of that are! I agree - I don't know the circumstances of her quote (was she asked a direct question, or did she volunteer the info in some announcement), so it's hard to say who is being more irresponsible here... but those companies who are swearing they're already "in production" aren't helping, either! Baxter says it could be ready by July? What kind of testing have they or will they do?? I'm glad I have the option of isolating...even if a (new, rapidly mass-produced) vaccine gets to the vast majority of us, it would be a tough choice for me...  

Keep the information coming!

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by: Cathy M @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 09:50:25 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Drives me a little nuts, too

Not only makes me want to choke the freaker (freakess?) who wrote the headline, but any UPI freaker(s)/freakess(es) who allowed it to be used.

In a matter like this pandemic, do the U.S. government and/or MSM ever intentionally deceive us?  

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by: ssal @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 21:15:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Baxter in 'Full Production' of Swine Flu Vaccine

http://www.nytimes.com/aponlin...

Baxter in 'Full Production' of Swine Flu Vaccine

DEERFIELD, Ill. (AP) -- Specialty drug maker Baxter International Inc. says it's in ''full scale'' production of a swine flu vaccine that will be commercially available in July.

The company based in Deerfield, Ill., made its announcement Friday, a day after the World Health Organization declared swine flu a global pandemic.

Baxter has said that its patented technology cuts in half the usual time it takes to develop a vaccine -- to about 13 weeks instead of 26.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports 45 swine flu deaths nationwide.

Enitre article posted.

Comments:  Gosh.  That was easy.  I feel so much better now.  I'll go toss my masks in the fire and eat my preps.  Sarcasm aside - hey, if it is that straightforwared then lucky for the human race.  I just don't think it's that simple, nor is making and distributing 6 billion doses.  

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by: LauraB @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 06:06:45 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

IF (and that's a big IF, as you correctly point out)

we can switch to cel;l based production, we will be in much better shape. More vaccine, earlier than expected.

Fingers crossed...

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by: DemFromCT @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 08:02:28 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

re: vaccine

Sure I want to be first in line for a new vaccine.  Ready by July.  How many people will they test it on. Two?? If they don't drop dead in 24 hours then it's safe so they will have enough for the entire country??? Sure....in your dreams...

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by: Ruth @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 08:08:02 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Tier Two or Three Should Be A Sign-up List

A little incentive/reward system for taking things seriously and planning ahead for "what if".  

If you say now, "it's no big deal" and you would not take a vaccine even if it was available, maybe you should not be at the front of the line if things turn out otherwise.

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

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by: Into The Woods @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:59:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't know about you,

but I'm in tier 5 on the receiving end.  I won't hold my breath.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

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by: Oremus @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 12:16:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Swine flu confirmed in Callaway County

http://www.ky3.com/internal?st...

FULTON, Mo -- Callaway County health officials confirm a case of the swine flu in Fulton.

That brings the total number of swine flu cases in Missouri to 51, with one death attributed to the virus.

This comes two days after the World Health Organization declared the outbreak a global pandemic.

Swiss drug maker Novartis says it's successfully created a vaccine for the virus.

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

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by: KathyinFL @ Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 23:29:08 PM CDT

Swine flu starting to spread: 20 more cases this weekend

http://www.radionz.co.nz/news/...

The number of confirmed cases of swine flu in New Zealand jumped to 55 on Sunday, up from 43 on Saturday and 34 on Friday.

With the disease starting to spread beyond those who caught it through overseas contact, the Ministry of Health says people must be prepared to recognise its symptoms and stay home if they are sick.

The latest case is a Burnside High School student in Christchurch. School principal Ron Noordijk says another 47 Year 9 pupils and five teachers being treated with the anti-viral drug Tamiflu in home isolation will be able to return to school on Wednesday.


Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

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by: KathyinFL @ Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 23:30:50 PM CDT

Westminster School in swine flu quarantine

http://www.news.com.au/story/0...

SOME students and staff at one of Adelaide's leading private schools will remain in quarantine for the start of the school week after a Year 10 student tested positive for swine flu.

Senior sporting activities at Westminster School have also been cancelled this weekend.

SA Health says there are now 47 confirmed swine flu cases in South Australia, with three people in hospital.


Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

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by: KathyinFL @ Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 23:32:32 PM CDT

Swine flu scare: Sector-49 family quarantined

http://www.indianexpress.com/n...

A family of four, residing in Sector 49, has been quarantined by the UT Health department as they were reportedly in close contact with an HINI flu patient in Delhi.

This is the first case in the city where a family has been quarantined following the instructions issued by the Union Health Ministry.


Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

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by: KathyinFL @ Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 23:36:38 PM CDT

This is actually India...

I followed the link - it's not Utah...if any of the mods are reading this... I didn't think Utah had gotten as bad as sectoring folks, yet. LOL.

Keep the information coming!

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by: Cathy M @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 09:53:57 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

It was me who did that Cathy.

That is what I get for doing headline updates at 1 AM. Guess I should have been in bed, huh! LOL I will correct it and thanks for pointing it out to me. If any of you see any mistakes in the future, #1 you can bet I am the one who did it and #2 please let me know. LOL Thanks.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 11:28:40 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Scouts may have been exposed to swine flu

http://www.ajc.com/services/co...

At least a dozen Boy Scouts, all members of a Dunwoody troop, have suspected cases of the H1N1 virus - more commonly known as swine flu - after a week at summer camp, according to an assistant scout leader.

Troop 434 from All Saints Catholic Church, including 32 boys and four adults, arrived at Camp Daniel Boone last Sunday.

The Atlanta scouts were among 700 campers planning to spend the week in the North Carolina mountains.

But on Monday, several scouts from a south Florida troop were running temperatures in the low 100s, and experiencing mild flu-like symptoms.

"I believe that they were sick when they left home," said Dan Rogers, camp director. "But they weren't showing outward signs. There were no symptoms of them having an illness until they got to camp."

As more boys got sick, Rogers enlisted the help of the Haywood County Health Department in nearby Waynesville. Nearly two dozen campers showed flu-like symptoms, but only two have been confirmed as being H1N1, according to Rogers.

Troop leaders e-mailed updates to parents of the Atlanta scouts. Some parents opted to pick up their children Friday morning, and others returned home Friday evening, according to Ed Cerbone, assistant troop leaders

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

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by: KathyinFL @ Sat Jun 13, 2009 at 23:40:37 PM CDT

Swine flu could grow far deadlier, says WHO adviser

The virus shows worrying similarities to Spanish flu, which wiped out 50 million people in 1918

One of the world's leading virologists warned last night that the swine flu virus shares worrying similarities with Spanish flu - which wiped out 50 million people in 1918 - and that we should be prepared for the worst.

As the pandemic continues to escalate, Professor Albert Osterhaus, an adviser to the World Health Organisation (WHO), expressed his fears that swine flu may develop into a far deadlier strain. "In a doomsday scenario, we could have a severe pandemic, similar to the Spanish flu, and that could arise out of a mutation of the virus," he said.

"Spanish flu also started as a relatively mild strain, comparable to the seasonal flu virus. Then, after half a year, there was a major peak and tens of millions of people died worldwide." Both viruses seem to target largely healthy adults and children, he added.

The global pandemic gives swine flu an opportunity to mutate into another form, said Professor Osterhaus, head of virology at the Erasmus University Medical Centre in Rotterdam and the man who discovered the H5N1 avian flu virus in humans.

"We cannot predict what's going to happen, or how likely or unlikely it is that we will have this scenario, but I think the precautionary principle is important and we should be prepared for the worst, even if there's only a small chance of it happening. We cannot rule out a repeat of a pandemic on the scale of the Spanish flu."


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 03:42:32 AM CDT

this validates what I wrote before

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/dia...

This is both good and bad.  Good to know that Osterhaus verifies my thinking. Good that he is speaking out. Bad that he is confirming that this virus is similar to 1918 and that it could happen.  

There's only a very short window of opportunity, to prepare for it.  The severe second wave of 1918 started in late August and exploded all over the world at the same time, The book The Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918-19: New Perspectives tells us:

Places as far apart as Britain, New Zealand, Bombay, Bogota, New York, Seattle registered the highest mortality from influenza during the week ending October 26.  The chronological simultaneity of the second epidemic explosion seems to reinforce the hypothesis that the virus mutated on site, regaining its capacity to produce a pandemic, this time of unimagined consequences.

translate: If the virus turned severe all over the world at the same time, it would mean that the tendency towards becoming more severe with further transmission may be intrinsic to the virus and not because of a fluke mutation.  

Very disturbing.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 03:59:54 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Has this been mentioned before???

the virus turned severe all over the world at the same time

Sorry, that sounds genetically crazy.  I could see a mutations happening more often as the number of infected rises, and virulent versions of those mutations racing across the countryside... enough so they appear, to the news outlets of the early 20th century, to happen almost simultaneously.

But to REALLY snap all at one across the planet at the same time?

That's just unimaginable by my tiny mind and downright horrific.

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by: Quartzman @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 06:04:10 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yep, that is why I'm quoting it

It's been mentioned in a few places.  Like this paper by Jeffery Taubenberger 1918 Influenza: the mother of all pandemics.  The paper is free and IMO compulsory reading for anyone interested in pandemic flu.

The book that I'm quoting is this one The Spanish Influenza Pandemic of 1918-19: New Perspectives (Studies in the Social History of Medicine).  This is a compilation of selected topics presented at a conference in Cape Town in 1998, 80th anniversary of the 1918 pandemic.  This was a gathering of 60 prominent 'historians, scientists, geographers, and doctors'.  

This book is very informative, has chapters covering different issues, from different perspectives around the world.  Contributors include some of the most famous names on this topic, including John Oxford, Jeffery Taubenberger, Ed Kilbourne, Niall Johnson, and David Killingray, among others.  It's expensive but you may be able to get it from your library.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 06:17:06 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Here's Taubenberger's analysis

He would be the first person to admit he has more questions than answers!

In the 1918-1919 pandemic, a first or spring wave began in March 1918 and spread unevenly through the United States, Europe, and possibly Asia over the next 6 months (Figure 1). Illness rates were high, but death rates in most locales were not appreciably above normal. A second or fall wave spread globally from September to November 1918 and was highly fatal. In many nations, a third wave occurred in early 1919 (21). Clinical similarities led contemporary observers to conclude initially that they were observing the same disease in the successive waves. The milder forms of illness in all 3 waves were identical and typical of influenza seen in the 1889 pandemic and in prior interpandemic years. In retrospect, even the rapid progressions from uncomplicated influenza infections to fatal pneumonia, a hallmark of the 1918-1919 fall and winter waves, had been noted in the relatively few severe spring wave cases. The differences between the waves thus seemed to be primarily in the much higher frequency of complicated, severe, and fatal cases in the last 2 waves.

But 3 extensive pandemic waves of influenza within 1 year, occurring in rapid succession, with only the briefest of quiescent intervals between them, was unprecedented. The occurrence, and to some extent the severity, of recurrent annual outbreaks, are driven by viral antigenic drift, with an antigenic variant virus emerging to become dominant approximately every 2 to 3 years. Without such drift, circulating human influenza viruses would presumably disappear once herd immunity had reached a critical threshold at which further virus spread was sufficiently limited. The timing and spacing of influenza epidemics in interpandemic years have been subjects of speculation for decades. Factors believed to be responsible include partial herd immunity limiting virus spread in all but the most favorable circumstances, which include lower environmental temperatures and human nasal temperatures (beneficial to thermolabile viruses such as influenza), optimal humidity, increased crowding indoors, and imperfect ventilation due to closed windows and suboptimal airflow.

However, such factors cannot explain the 3 pandemic waves of 1918-1919, which occurred in the spring-summer, summer-fall, and winter (of the Northern Hemisphere), respectively. The first 2 waves occurred at a time of year normally unfavorable to influenza virus spread. The second wave caused simultaneous outbreaks in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres from September to November. Furthermore, the interwave periods were so brief as to be almost undetectable in some locales. Reconciling epidemiologically the steep drop in cases in the first and second waves with the sharp rises in cases of the second and third waves is difficult. Assuming even transient postinfection immunity, how could susceptible persons be too few to sustain transmission at 1 point and yet enough to start a new explosive pandemic wave a few weeks later? Could the virus have mutated profoundly and almost simultaneously around the world, in the short periods between the successive waves? Acquiring viral drift sufficient to produce new influenza strains capable of escaping population immunity is believed to take years of global circulation, not weeks of local circulation. And having occurred, such mutated viruses normally take months to spread around the world.

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 06:31:07 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

shift

so he thinks it was reassortment = antigenic shift ?

or two strains cocirculating already in spring
and one didn't become dominant before August/Sept.

But September wave in Australia (first wave) then quarantine
and nothing since Dec. when quarantine leaked

other similar examples

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

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by: gs @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 06:53:29 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

we all speculate

we all don;'t know, even JKT.

His speculations happen to be more informed than most, but none of us know.

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by: DemFromCT @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 08:05:07 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

A question (or two) for DemFromCT ...

... you've already said "we don't know" so forgive me if I'm asking you to answer a question(s) you've already answered.

I'd like to know how concerned you are about H1N1 from a) a professional perspective and b) an emotional perspective.

Are you 'prepping'? If so, to what extent?

Is there anything you've seen so far that makes you think that H1N1 is changing from 'moderate' to something more severe? Are things panning out as you expected from your historical knowledge of pandemics and do you see any similarities with 1918?

Do you see any signs that H1N1 is becoming any less severe? Could it just as likely turn more benign as becoming more severe?

My 9 year old niece tells me "stop asking SO MANY" questions, so I'll shut up, but your opinions would be appreciated.

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by: Fanny Adams @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 11:18:22 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I've had two weeks of prep, more or less

for years, never thought I'd need more. Argued over that for a long time, recognize others feel different (re H5N1) and worked on the get pandemic ready web site (which encourages 3 months prep.) Never told anyone not to prep, never understood the occasional hostility to my position. I'll get back to that re the emotional side.

From a professional perspective, if it stays like this we will muddle through and if it gets worse, we will have a difficult time. How difficult a time depends on the virus, and I really think we have no clue as to what will happen in the fall. The fact that we have flu in June is simply extraordinary. I expect a second wave in fall, and I have no idea what that will mean. Not all second waves are worse.

But if it is worse, we are not ready. nyc is not ready. And the public has not been involved. Or informed.

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by: DemFromCT @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 13:17:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I've always had more than two weeks worth of preps

simply because I hate shopping, don't like to make my mind up in advance what I want for dinner and I'm a sucker for BOGOFs ;-)

We all have different plans.

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by: UK - Bird @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 13:28:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

being prepared

I think that's what worries me the most.. that despite WHO raising the alert to level 6, that the messages coming out of the government in the UK are all about going on as normal and not panicking.. while I am still naive enough to hope that behind the scenes, those in power are doing a little bit of panicking and thus are looking forward to the possibility of all hell let loose in the fall, I know from talking to my friends that the issue of personal preparedness is one that they themselves are not going to address until it is too late.. tbh I am not sure what can be done by the powers that be to change this attitude now as I think they have been all too successful in dampening down anxiety over this issue to the point that no one seems to care... it scares me that people that hold down high powered jobs that require thinking on their feet can't see that it will take only a slightly more severe flu season than normal to not only cause chaos in the NHS but also in the food supply chain.. catching Newsnight last week, they interviewed an American in NYC who had contracted the flu and who was forced to admit that he had gone out during his recommended quarantine because he didn't have any food in or anyone that could leave it for him... without getting the message across that some preps are necessary, and that we all need to think how we can can protect others as well as ourselves, the best laid plans for mitigation are off to a non-start as far as I can see.

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by: coldethyl @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 13:32:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The other risk

is that stores are not taking this seriously and are not preparing.

I work for a large drugstore chain, and on Friday found that the manager had pulled down our endcap of sanitizers. I told him we needed to order more and he said "Why, this thing is all over with. Done. Finished"  

So I told him Phase 6 had been declared and he barely blinked.  

So far nothing from Corporate about being prepared for fall. Sales of face masks and sanitizers have all but stopped. People are definitely not stocking up here.

I'm going to have to educate him, somehow.  But even if he does start stocking up, his boss will question it, so unless and until TSHTF there's a limit to how much we can order. Of course, by then it will be too late.

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by: KimD @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 13:43:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

ya think we need a pandemic awareness week?

(i do, also doing other things)

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

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by: lugon @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 13:47:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

APHA has declared Sept. 15 Get Ready Day.

We can join in, I guess.  I'm not sure if we'd have to be a member of the American Public Health Association to set up a display in a store or library.  
There are downloadable materials at this website.
http://www.getreadyforflu.org/...
It's a focus for a start, anyway.

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

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by: Jane @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:21:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Very Timely...Not!

If the worries are correct about a fall re-surgence, that would give folks... what - three days prep time? ;-} It would be funny if it weren't sad... the Get Ready Day needs to be NOW, IMO.

Keep the information coming!

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by: Cathy M @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 15:51:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Better late than never . . .

But I don't mean I think September would be late - I think NOW would be late, but better now than then.

Time's a'wasting . . .

Empty store shelves could be re-filled now without much undue disruption - will that still be true in September?

My bet is on - no - not so easy, then.

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by: Clawdia @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 16:02:27 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Prep Duration Discussions - Links and Resources

As DemFromCt mentioned, the discussions about how long to prep have been both numerous and sometimes vigorous.

If you want to get a taste for some of the various positions and their justifications, you could start here

Prepping For More Than 3 Months (started by Dem for the purposes of focussing those discussions)
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

Some of the discussions are colored by the desire of folks here to get the US Government to go beyond the 3-day preparation period which was the standard message for many years - and had more to do with temporary and geographically isolated incidents instead of a widely dispersed incident of much longer duration.

For a very comprehensive compilation of various individual prepping diaries compiled by Irene as of 2006 you can go to this diary:

Summary of Personal Prepping Diaries
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

Doing a search (see column on left) by either diaries or comments for personal (or individual or family) prep would undoubtedly give you a ton of information, resources and opinions.

There are also resources highlighted on the home page column on the right including:

Get Pandemic Ready (How To Start Prepping)
http://www.getpandemicready.org/

and

Citizen's Guide v 2.0
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/upl...

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

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by: Into The Woods @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 15:25:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

and also discussions on phase 11 prepping!

Here
http://newfluwiki2.com/showDia...
and here
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

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by: dawood @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 15:28:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Have they been able to do comparative genetic analysis of the virus in victims

from early in the first wave, and middle of second wave to see what the precise change(s) were?


Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 00:42:55 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

there are no samples for the first wave

only 3 from the second wave.  More here http://www.newfluwiki2.com/dia...


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 00:48:44 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Taubenberger Take-Away

As a layperson, that was a complex article, and I wasn't sure I was following it, but one thing I did notice:

Historical records since the 16th century suggest that new influenza pandemics may appear at any time of year, not necessarily in the familiar annual winter patterns of interpandemic years, presumably because newly shifted influenza viruses behave differently when they find a universal or highly susceptible human population.

That suggests that we may or may not have a couple months - it seems he thinks that it's the mutations rather than the season that dictate the lethality... or at least that's what I got... and that's not comforting!

Keep the information coming!

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by: Cathy M @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 10:02:55 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

it could be any number of things

he thinks that it's the mutations rather than the season that dictate the lethality

eg what if it was related to the number of generations of hosts it had transmitted through?  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 11:38:51 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Forgive my ignorance

If a novel H1N1 is some how more unstable it would lead to a generation time effect...

then at least 2 possible outcomes

if unstable viral genome (aggregate) is "friable" might it not, as it cycles through more generation times lead to a less fit genomic spectrum? Friable might include transient mutations, others that I am not articulating.

If unstable on some metalevel but persistence of individual mutations are robust, then adaptation in genome spectrum will find best fit solutions "quickly".

Also, if its a novel strain, might not it have a greater phase space to test best fit genomic solutions in a naive host (and then multiply by the large population of naive hosts) .. this could be seen as instability in the viral genome but actually it is just a function of exposure to so many naive hosts.

With a majority of the population of potential hosts being naive, then the path of least resistance for an organism that has to balance virulence with infectivity will perhaps be one where it doesnt have to optimize infectivity and that a higher individual virulence is tolerated by the host population as a whole.

Note that any words that anthropomorphize the virus is not meant to do so, its just hard to articulate the dynamics of this sort of rapid evolution. Its not the virus itself but rather the aggregate outcome as dictated by the genomes interfacing with its environment.

(hope these questions make sense)

---

by: nika @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 13:58:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I'm not sure I understand all of what you wrote ;-D

so let me just look at this part

With a majority of the population of potential hosts being naive, then the path of least resistance for an organism that has to balance virulence with infectivity will perhaps be one where it doesnt have to optimize infectivity and that a higher individual virulence is tolerated by the host population as a whole

a) There is no biological law that says any organism HAS TO balance virulence with infectivity.  And you're right that it's easy to end up anthropomorphizing the virus without meaning to.  

Let me put it in a different way.  If all organisms can optimize their evolution, we would not have extinction of species

b) The critical issue here is that flu is most contagious before symptoms or shortly after onset, when most people are still able to walk around (perhaps unaware they are sick) and thus spread it to others.  For all purposes, such a virus can have a 100% CFR and still continue to transmit.  Just hypothetically, of course,

c) Again, it's sort of anthropomorphizing to say a higher individual virulence is tolerated by the host population as a whole.  It doesn't matter whether we, as individuals, or even as a society, tolerate a higher virulence.  We can scream bloody murder for all we want, but it won't affect the virus one bit.  If you look at cities like Philadelphia in 1918, the population was definitely NOT tolerating the virulence, but they were helpless against the virus.

d) Finally, influenza has been known to cause 'population depletion' type of outbreaks in mammals.  Specifically in harbor seals in New England.  http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pu...


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:16:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Then we have a problem

because this time, unlike 1918, we have ww travel that has enabled this virus to spread far more rapidly around the world, thus more generations in a shorter time frame.

But in a way, isn't number of generations of hosts directly related to mutations...since there is a regular fairly stable (probable)rate of mutations per generation of any living thing. The more generations, the more opportunity for mutations. Probably several mutations. The one that increases the virus' ability to infect and replicate inside its new host is gonna be the one we notice: That would be our second wave. The ones that make the virus milder or less transmissable may be there, but overshadowed by this one that is of greatest survival benefit to the virus.  Eventually it mutates away from the super severity to become a long lasting seasonal influenza.

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 01:18:40 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

maybe not

because this time, unlike 1918, we have ww travel that has enabled this virus to spread far more rapidly around the world, thus more generations in a shorter time frame.

When we say, spread rapidly, what we are observing are 2 parameters - size of epidemic, and geographical distribution.  The more contacts people have, the more cases each infected person will infect.  Travel will cause wider geographical distribution.

But all those would not affect the number of generations.  The serial interval (time between onset of one patient and the next one) is a number that does not vary that much.  Sure it's dependent on the biological characteristics of the virus, eg how long people are infectious for, and how long is the incubation period, but these are biological and not population parameters.  The variation in serial interval in different geographical locations would not be as great as the variation in the number of cases in each generation.

Which means that the number of generations over time may be fairly constant, in different geographical locations.  If this is the case, it will also account for how come the 1918 fall wave all exploded as a severe wave at the same time in many places in the world.  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 01:53:07 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

there is also competition between the strains

Usually at any time and in one location, you end up with one dominant strain.  Different isolates from different subjects may contain minor differences, but in general, those strains with poor competitive ability will disappear.  

The reason why this happens is because the evolution is also driven by the immune responses of the host.  Imagine someone having several strains of varying fitness (ie competitive advantage).  When this person gets infected, his body is going to mount an immune response.  The initial immune response (by the innate immune system) is a non-specific one, ie it doesn't specifically target one particular strain, but instead tries to overcome all invaders.  When that happens, the virus that is more fit or better adapted to the host immune response is more likely to survive while the weaker ones are destroyed.  Which is how you have a dominant strain.

Notice every time there is a pandemic, the previously existing seasonal strains get wiped out.  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 02:02:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

it isn't that your mind is tiny ;-)

Even the best scientists cannot comprehend what happened.  It just seems crazy, and we still don't have answers to many questions about what happened in 1918, and now it looks like it's unfolding again.

This time it may end up differently, but as Osterhaus said, this virus is too similar to 1918, and the same scenario happening is not impossible.  We cannot exclude that possibility because we still don't know how 1918 was so severe.  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 06:23:31 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

true true

It just sounds crazy to me.

On one hand, if it is truly what is going on - that's rather intriguing - but for obvious reasons it's also scary in that it points to something we know we don't know.  

I've read of spontaneous evolution, and I can see how that functions, but dang, this is downright profound to me.  :P

Well, here's hoping history is highlighting the remarkable and not the commonplace.

---

by: Quartzman @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 07:41:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

it sure is

but dang, this is downright profound to me.

The more you know, the more you don't know.  ;-p


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 09:46:49 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

One possible explanation

[caveat: this is technical virology and IANAvirologist]
An RNA virus like flu exists as millions upon millions (OK, I'm too lazy to look it up) of individual virus copies, or virions, inside each individual. Because the virus copying mechanism isn't very reliable, they are by no means all identical. But it isn't just that there might be the odd mutant. In fact, if I remember rightly, all possible one-mutation variants and many of the two-mutation variants can be expected to arise in each infected individual. Then, of course, if they are fit, they carry on reproducing in that individual. What's actually stable is not the genetic sequence of the virus but the distribution of mutants: a quasispecies. When we "sequence a virus" from an individual, we probably get the most common sequence, but there are millions of other sequences we could get from that one individual. In a very real sense, what makes a particular strain of a virus what it is is not a sequence, but a distribution of sequences.

What this means is that if conditions change so that a slightly different variant of the virus is more fit, then it isn't a case of waiting for that variant to arise, which might not happen. That variant is already there inside each individual: if conditions now favour it, it's ready and waiting to take over as the new most common sequence.

I think that's one way you could get simultaneous explosion of the same new sequence across the world. If it's genetically close enough to what spread before that it's a member of the quasispecies, and if conditions change in the same way across the world - e.g., the proportion of susceptible individuals goes down because many are immune to the original most common sequenced virus - then it will take over in the same way in all those places. There were independent mutations all over the world, but that's not a surprise, it's just how RNA viruses are. The mutant was already there; what changed was that it became favoured by natural selection under changed circumstances.

---

by: Mathematician @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 07:45:03 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

yes, and also something else

All that we have, by way of sequence, are 3 samples.  2 from the army - 1 soldier who died in New York, 1 who died in South Carolina.  Then the third sample from an Inuit woman in Alaska.  The Alaska outbreak was spread by ships from Seattle, so I would suggest that all 3 sequences that we do know about, may be (almost) identical because they were more or less spread in the same geographical region.

One would wonder whether the virus in, say Australia, or Africa, was the same as the one in North America.  We just don't know.

But irrespective of whether they are the same (or similar) in sequence, the fact that increased virulence occurred all over the world and in around the same time-frame really, as JKT says, cannot be explained by our normal understanding of antigenic drift in seasonal flu.  Could it be that increasing virulence is a natural consequence of a virus that has recently switched species, such that the same mechanism is happening all over the world?

The hypothesis that I would put up, is that there may be a selection bias favoring more virulent strain, as the virus passes through human hosts.  How would that happen?  Let's look at the subcellular level.  Let's say someone is infected and the virus is replicating in a cell.  As you say, it really isn't one virus, but many many virus particles (or virions) that may have small differences between them due to random mutation.

Let's say you have 2 virions, A and B.  They are almost identical but with a few mutations, which makes A replicate faster and/or more efficiently than B, such that, as the cell breaks up and the virus particles are released, there will be more of A and less of B.

Since influenza is most transmissible in the earliest stages of disease (unlike other diseases like SARS where the virus transmits later), then it's a bit like who gets there first - which strain accumulates in larger amounts in the nasopharynx of the host in the early stages, so that it will become transmitted.  In this case, it would be A, cos it's present in larger quantities and/or earlier, making it more likely to be transmitted to the next person.

But we also know, that more efficient replication is associated with more severe disease.  Which means that maybe those strains that replicate more efficiently are also in general more likely to be transmitted, sort of like a 'universal law' for evolutions of a flu virus that has newly switched to humans.  

Now, over time, as the virus becomes more and more human-adapted, other selection pressures may be more important, and the disease becomes milder.  I also suspect that this eventual attenuation, switches the pattern of disease back to the U-shape that you would see in seasonal flu.

As I said, just a hypothesis.  Take it FWIW.  ;-)


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 09:45:39 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Is it possible

that there were two viruses intitally?

The first an H1N1 well adapted to the human race but an ability it had only just achieved.

The second a purely avian H1N1 circulating widely in poultry.

Because the two viruses were so closely related they mixed whenever a person was exposed to both?

A bit like H1N1 meeting H5N1 but because they were more closely related the mix was more likely?

---

by: UK - Bird @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 10:09:34 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I should have added

the human one was mild the avian was not.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 10:11:44 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

no, if you look at the epidemiology

the age distribution of fatal cases in the first and second waves were the same, just that more people got severe disease in the second wave.  

Check out this diary again.  Read the bit about NYC, and the charts, in detail.  http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 11:15:58 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

in all countries the pattern was the same

The first wave infected a lot of people, but most were not much more than seasonal flu, but there was a small but distinct number of deaths among young healthy people, that had the same clinical course as the later wave.

Again, look at this chart from Crosby, mortality in first wave.  Same pattern as second wave.  And very similar to now - young adults affected, some children, and almost no deaths in older people.  That is an unusual pattern for influenza, and only found in 1918, and now.  At least based on the data up to now.

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 11:23:02 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

a bit more than a hypothesis, Susan

You mentioned a research paper describing an experiment having to do with Which strain is selected: the one who spreads sooner in the illness, or the one who spreads later.

I don't remember the details, but the conclusion in my mind was "severe wins in crowded environments, mild wins in the Sahara desert".

I'll have to dig for the details and the reference, though.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

---

by: lugon @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 13:41:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

it's here

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 13:56:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

still a hypothesis

it's not proven till it's proven, and there are no studies designed to test that for flu.  Our understanding of flu is about as good as when the lightbulb was invented.  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 13:58:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

a hypothesis with some experimental data

along the lines of the hypothesis.

I mean, it's not just idle speculation, but just a bit more than that.

Not "proven" but if there are mechanisms that could explain why it might happen, it is just that bit more solid.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

---

by: lugon @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:24:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Da! That makes sense to me

Thanks, Mathematician. I totally get what you are saying. This is classic ecology. Create conducive conditions. That's the trigger, the conditions. Thanks. I think that hypothesis is sound. Lots of examples in nature.

---

by: phytosleuth @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 10:54:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

A bit more discussion

The Three Hypothesis

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/dia...

---

by: Okieman @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 08:46:05 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

sorry, missing link!!!

to above news article.

http://www.independent.co.uk/l...


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 04:06:27 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

link to Osterhaus' statement

http://www.independent.co.uk/l...

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

---

by: Jane @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 11:44:33 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oops, a repeat; missed that the first time. n/t

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

---

by: Jane @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 11:49:05 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

So how will we definitely know this is as bad as 1918? When we see a mutation??

I'm also wondering if a mutation is found is it more likely to be found toward fall and if that does happen, how will this change the planning of our preparedness on a national level? I know zero about such things. I know it's important to be prepped on a personal level but will it take a mutation for our govt. to start telling people to prep beyond thorough hand washing and social distancing?
By then it will be kind of late!

Every day the news about this virus seems to be more and more alarming.

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

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by: tess @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:54:29 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

nothing about influenza is definite

So there's always a lot of guess-work.  But I agree with you about the govt and washing hands bit.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 02:04:08 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Swine flu is officially a pandemic. But don't worry ... not yet, anyway

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl...

Out of 30,000 global cases, only 145 deaths have been reported and development of a vaccine is well under way. But scientists will not relax: the virus could mutate and grow stronger over the summer - and what happens if it mixes with bird flu?

[snip]

All these issues make it difficult for doctors and scientists to be certain how they will cope if swine flu, as expected, returns to Britain with renewed vigour later this year. Or it may return in a relatively non-virulent form and pharmaceutical companies may suffer no vaccine production problems. Alternatively, things could go wrong.

"We can anticipate many things and that, in the end, is all we can do," said Hay. "We must prepare as best we can for all these scenarios and then deal with the ones that unfold. It will probably be a long battle, however."

Commment Long article pointing out many of the problems that vaccine production and viral mutation may pose.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 05:09:34 AM CDT

UK - Government to divide Britain in bid to fight pandemic

http://www.people.co.uk/news/t...

PIG FLU? YOU'RE IN THE DIRTY ZONE

Special "dirty zones" may be introduced in Britain in a bid to contain the spread of swine flu.

Patients suffering symptoms of the disease would be encouraged to attend surgeries in designated areas.

People with other complaints would be treated at surgeries in "clean areas" of their town.

Government health chiefs believe the segregation scheme is the best way to control the flu outbreak - now officially a pandemic.

GPs have been sent details of how the zoning operation would work.

But as the number of UK cases hit 1,121 yesterday, many doctors said it would be better to simply let people catch swine flu. One told The People: "The flu strain seems to be weakening. We still need to concentrate on protecting vulnerable groups.

"But many doctors think that, for most of the population, letting it spread and then pass quickly would be best."

cont.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 05:33:58 AM CDT

Hong Kong at 'extreme risk' in event of pandemic

Hong Kong has been classified as being at ''extreme risk'' to the spread of an influenza pandemic.

Hong Kong's inclusion among those regions being at extreme risk of a flu virus spreading within their borders is due to its mix of a dense population, a busy airport, and high levels of tourism and urbanisation.

The ranking of 213 countries and regions places Britain as most at risk to the spread of an influenza pandemic, closely followed by The Netherlands, Germany, Italy and South Korea. Hong Kong is in the same ''extreme risk'' group as Russia, Canada, Israel, Singapore and Japan.
(Snip)
But even if most rich countries are vulnerable to the rapid transmission of the disease, they are far better equipped to cope with its impact, said Alyson Warhurst, a professor at Warwick Business School in Britain and main architect of the global ranking.

''Capacity to contain the spread is going to be much weaker in poor countries with very poor infrastructure and lack of education. That would be much of sub-Saharan Africa,'' she said.

In a separate ''capacity'' index, all but seven of the 40 nations least able to contain a pandemic are on the African continent. Continued: http://www.thestandard.com.hk/...  

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 06:20:00 AM CDT

yeah, great, so is the UK

Hong Kong has been classified as being at ''extreme risk'' to the spread of an influenza pandemic.

and I happen to live in them both.  ;-/  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 06:34:01 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

china extreme risk

i would think hong kong/china is more risk than the other places named, since h5n1 is widespread in chinese chickens, which are raised in close proximity to pigs = favorite food in china. In addition to all the business-related crossborder traffic, Guangdong via Hongkong is major inbound tourist spot for ethnic chinese from other countries, many of whom return to see their ancestral village. While there, they have a traditional chicken/dog/roasted pig feast, then they return to hong kong in order to fly home. My father-in-law was hospitalized for three weeks after returning to his Taishan village in the late nineties. At that time his village still drank water from an open well, no plumbing obviously, roasted a whole pig from their very own pig pen, chickens were running in and out the house. I'm sure much has changed in 12 years, but I still think tourists eating in ancestral villages would be more likely to bring back h5n1/h1n1 combo than tourists or business travelers staying in nice hotels. They are also more likely to get the local pigs sick. In May, a sick tourist caused 3
villages in Guangdong to be quarantined....
  Treyfish's recent posts have focused on egypt, but china i think is just as more of a hotspot as egypt,  Yesterday was the report that US school kids were  quarantined in yichang, hubei at the end of their trip, after 13 days in the country. They shouldn't be quarantined someone wrote and another wrote they must have gotten sick IN the country. Well, just because officials noticed the sickness at 13 days doesn't mean that's when it started. So the tour group still could have brought it with them. But if they did get sick in china, don't you WANT them to quarantine returning travelers who may have got sick where a mutation could occur? Hubei has had h5n1 in poultry and yichang has urban piggeries. Look at this article about piggeries in yichang being bulldozed two weeks ago, live pigs crushed in two story rubble, two pig workers wounded in the conflict. Less humane even than egyptian pig cull! The piggery was "in a development zone" and swine flu was not mentioned as a motivation for this particular incident. But now that we are in phase 6, and china has increased its anti-flu measures, swine flu may be excuse to seize more peasant land for development --an ongoing source of public anger (read riots) in china. The peasants aren't generally compensated for their land. Mixing vessel pigs raised in cities are very scary, but a poor, vulnerable population is made worse off by these removals...
http://english.china.com/zh_cn...
  China is dealing with alot of other problems right now. Massive unemployment, exports down 26%, "mass incidents" = unrest at record highs, demonstrations returning in Tibet, India moving troops to the border, China's new anti-terror
interventions in SWAT pakistan (at US request), arsons (internal terrorists?) torching crowded buses in chengdu, the highest security level EVER right now,higher than for the olympics and anti-terror drills all over the country.
  The chinese character for home = pig under a roof. The last thing China wants or needs is a swine flu epidemic on top of endemic poultry h5n1 and an economic crisis. China is trying to fight swine flu, but did not want phase 6, because it would add to their economic problems and unrest. Many provinces in china depend of tourism, which is way down. Foreigners are also staying away from guangdong trade shows (just as happened with SARS)
 Why talk about money when lives are at stake? IMO money = lives in a developing country where open sewers still exist in some places, and peasant pig farmers have no other livelihood once their piggeries are torn down. China
is telling its unemployed college graduates to return to
"grass-roots jobs" in rural areas, so the competition is
pretty tough.

---

by: kathyMA @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:42:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

China's A Lot Like The Bus in "Speed"

Things slow down too much and bad things can happen.

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 15:36:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Australia set to raise swine flu alert level

Australia said on Sunday that it is set to raise its swine flu alert level as the number of victims hit by the pandemic continued to mount while Thailand urged calm after a sharp increase in cases.

Australian Health Minister Nicola Roxon said that, with the national tally nearing 1,500 cases, the whole country would soon move to the "sustain" phase in line with hotspot state Victoria. The "sustain" phase, Australia's second-highest, gives authorities the power to cancel sports events, close schools and restrict travel, although officials say extreme measures such as closing national borders are unlikely.
(Snip)
Swine flu has so far infected almost 30,000 people in 74 countries and claimed 145 lives since it was first detected in Mexico in April, according to the latest WHO figures released Friday. A total of 1,458 cases of the A(H1N1) virus have been counted in Australia, the worst-hit Asia-Pacific country, with the fifth highest number of cases worldwide.

"As the numbers gradually increase in jurisdictions there will be steps over the coming days to move to a consistent alert level," Roxon said. "It's inevitable that the disease will spread. That's the nature of this type of flu," she added.

Meanwhile, Thai Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva urged the country not to panic after swine flu cases suddenly soared and a cluster emerged in a key tourist hub. Health authorities reported 106 confirmed cases of the virus late Saturday -- nearly seven times the tally just three days earlier. Officials last week said 21 of the new infections were found among nightclub workers in the coastal city of Pattaya, who were tested after two Taiwanese tourists said on returning home they had contracted the disease there.

"People should not panic. The death ratio for the new flu is probably lower than normal flu," Abhisit said in his weekly television programme. He said the government was taking extra measures whenever cases were reported to stop the spread of the disease.

Health authorities in Canada announced Saturday that a fifth person had died of swine flu and reported 540 additional cases, bringing the country's total since the start of the outbreak to more than 3,500.

But while millions could catch the flu, governments and health experts around the world have sought to play down fears that the A(H1N1) virus could become a major killer.

Continued: http://www.winknews.com/featur...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 07:14:34 AM CDT

containment doesn't work

as Australia and the UK demonstrate. Slowing down is good, but it should have been described as such.

---

by: DemFromCT @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 08:06:50 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Iran's airports look for swine flu sufferers

Amid the rise in global health alerts, Iran has put into effect its quarantine plan at the country's international airports to control the spread of swine flu. Authorities of the country's international airports have implemented the quarantine plan for about 60 foreign passengers after observing swine-flu-like symptoms. "Medical analysis and checkups showed the symptoms are only like swine-flu symptoms; we cleared the passengers," (Snip)

"We have not restricted flights into Iran because the country does not run any direct flights to Mexico or the US," "However, the fast-growing number of confirmed swine flu cases makes us keep a close eye on passengers," he added.

Earlier he had confirmed that despite the outbreak of swine flu in certain parts of the world, no case of the disease has so far emerged in Iran. (Snip) http://www.presstv.ir/detail.a...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 07:45:12 AM CDT

UK - Update on confirmed swine flu cases 14 June 2009

http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPA...

105 further patients under investigation in England have today been confirmed with swine flu. Together with the 43 cases in Scotland announced yesterday (June 13 2009) by the Scottish Government this brings the current total number of confirmed UK cases to 1226.

Testing of the swine flu virus is carried out by the Health Protection Agency's regional network of laboratories.

East of England 2 50

East Midlands - 13

London 9 158

North East - 19

North West - 21

South East 3 90

South West 1 18

West Midlands 39 354

Yorkshire & Humber 7 29

Unknown** - -

TOTAL ENGLAND 61 752

Northern Ireland 1 8

Scotland 43 463

Wales - 3

TOTAL UK 105 1226

486 cases are currently under laboratory investigation in the UK.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 09:18:10 AM CDT

Scotland cases bring total to - 1261

Key hotspots are London, Birmingham and Glasgow. Though London is suspiciously quiet.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 10:35:11 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

UK - Scotland's swine flu total nears 500 mark

http://news.stv.tv/scotland/10...

Scotland's swine flu total is nearing the 500 mark as health officials confirm 35 new cases.

The latest patients to be diagnosed with the virus were spread across Scotland. Thirty-two were in NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde, one in NHS Highland, one in NHS Forth Valley, and one in NHS Grampian.

The development, announced by Health Secretary Nicola Sturgeon on Sunday, takes Scotland's tally of confirmed cases to 498.

Referring to a community outbreak in the West Midlands, Ms Sturgeon said: "We continue to see a rise in cases of Influenza A (H1N1) around the world, and Scotland is not isolated from that.

"Given the number of cases being confirmed in the West Midlands, there is an indication that the area is experiencing a level of spread similar to what we are seeing in Scotland.

cont.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 10:31:39 AM CDT

Swine flu charting deadly course

'Working hypothesis' among experts is virus to follow 1918 pattern

Chilling parallels between the spread of H1N1 swine flu and the 1918 Spanish flu that killed millions have disease experts bracing for an onslaught of new infections and a possible second wave of illness.

Dr. Ethan Rubinstein, professor of infectious diseases at the University of Manitoba, said experts now believe the H1N1 influenza will follow the same pattern as the 1918 pandemic, as the virus continues to spread in more countries worldwide and causes a disproportionate amount of severe illness in First Nation communities.

In the last week, the H1N1 virus has erupted in the northern Manitoba First Nations communities of St. Theresa Point and Garden Hill, both remote reserves with poor access to health care, overcrowded homes and a lack of running water.

Similarly, impoverished aboriginal communities were hit hard by the 1918 outbreak. In Norway House Cree Nation in Manitoba, nearly one in five people died from the Spanish flu.

http://www.vancouversun.com/He...


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 11:25:12 AM CDT

also this

He said no one knows whether the latest cluster of flu cases is the end of the first wave of illness, or the beginning of a second wave.

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 11:52:54 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

1918?

What experts said this? I'd wait for Webster and Osterholm before jumping to conclusions, have great respsct for those men.

It certainly may mimic 1918 in certain groups perhaps poor people in crowded living situs, but overall?

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.

---

by: Grace RN @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 12:20:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

well, Osterhaus is saying it

and personally, I respect his opinion even more than Webster's or Osterholms.  ;-)

It certainly may mimic 1918 in certain groups perhaps poor people in crowded living situs, but overall?

I don't think we can tell yet, whether the severity had to do with poor people living in crowded situations.  I've looked at data/analysis from 1918 for many cities around the world, and there really doesn't seem to be any correlation between overcrowding and overall death rate.  Neither did poverty seem to be a factor.  Or at least they didn't find any correlation.

I'm still looking.  Several books to go through.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 12:39:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Osterhaus?

When did he say that? I certainly respect your opinion, but latest I heard was Fujika saying it would be 1957'ish, a moderate pandemic.

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.

---

by: Grace RN @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:16:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

further up this thread ;-D

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

where it started a whole long discussion.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:18:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

it sounds more cautious

alot of 'could', 'unpredictable', (as all flu viruses are). While not good, not good at all, I came away from the article with the impression he is advising against underestimating this flu pandemic's potential impact, as ooposed to saying it will be 1918-like.

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.

---

by: Grace RN @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:25:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

sure, and that is the most appropriate and responsible approach n/t

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:28:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oregon's First Confirmed Death From Novel H1N1

Oregon's First Confirmed Death From Novel H1N1 (swine) Influenza Reported In Marion County, USA
Main Category: Swine Flu

Article Date: 14 Jun 2009 - 0:00 PDT

A Marion County woman with confirmed novel H1N1 (swine) influenza died on Sunday. "We are saddened by this death, and our hearts go out to the family," said Dr. Karen Landers, health officer for Marion County. "It's an unfortunate reminder of the seriousness of flu."

This is the first death of a person with novel H1N1 influenza in Oregon and the 28th in the nation. Strains of seasonal flu affect an estimated one in 10 Oregonians annually, and account for approximately 400 annual Oregon deaths and 36,000 nationwide. As of today, there is no indication that the H1N1 influenza is more dangerous than other strains of flu.

The Marion County woman was hospitalized for eight days prior to her death. She had multiple underlying health conditions, which placed her at high risk for infection and complications.
more
http://www.medicalnewstoday.co...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 13:39:54 PM CDT

Oregon case count hard to find

Oregon is surprisingly one of the states that drives me nuts trying to find an updated count. All I can find is the CDC number and we all know that number can be days old.

Even the linked article shows old number. CDC last report, June 12, shows 189 not 168 (June 5).

Anyone have any links to Oregon's influenza count?  

---

by: phytosleuth @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 16:17:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oregon official count

is here

From the state website:

As of June 12, 2009, the Oregon State Public Health Laboratory identified 189 confirmed cases of Novel Influenza A/H1N1 in Oregon. Ninety-five (50%) are male and 94 (50%) are female; the cases range in age from 0 to 78 years; the median age is 16. Of the confirmed cases, 16 were hospitalized (four 0-4 year-olds, six 5-24 year-olds; five 25-64 year-olds; and one 65+ year-old).

On Sunday, June 7th, a Marion County woman with confirmed Novel Influenza A/H1N1 died. She was hospitalized for eight days prior to her death and had multiple underlying health conditions.

[My comments:  8.5% of the confirmed cases were hospitalized.  This probably overstates the hospitalization rate, since you're unlikely to be tested for the novel A/H1N1 flu unless you're sick enough to be hospitalized.  However, the age distribution of the hospitalized cases is troubling -- 62.5% of the hospitalized cases were under the age of 25.]

---

by: AlohaOR @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 17:28:22 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

They are only reporting on Fridays...

And late on Fridays, at that... I emailed their official website when it seemed they had stopped updating, and the woman who replied said they were switching to the CDC's schedule. The official count is at:

http://www.flu.oregon.gov

and I have to say the local media is really downplaying it... I was amazed to see the short article about a private school in Portland closing for a few days "due to a confirmed case of swine flu" had - in two hours - dropped to the fourth-down page of news... on a website where those newsbits generally stay up for a couple days w/o changing!

I'm really disappointed in my state's official level of transparency - they are not even revealing how many suspected cases they have (which might reveal how much actual testing is happening...). I've been checking the local papers online as well... not much. It's possible that the outbreaks just died off... but that doesn't fit the pattern anywhere else!

Keep the information coming!

---

by: Cathy M @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 17:34:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Cathy, you've got mail (n/t)

---

by: AlohaOR @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 18:05:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

One more slight Oregon newsbit

http://www.oregonlive.com/heal...

A Lewis & Clark College student has a confirmed case of H1N1 influenza, or swine flu, college officials reported Friday.
"We see no reason for alarm," said John Hancock, associate dean of students and director of wellness services, in a letter to students, staff and faculty. The unidentified student is recovering fully, as do most people infected with swine flu, he said.
Oregon has reported 168 cases of swine flu, as of last week, and one death -- in a Marion County woman with underlying health conditions.
The letter encouraged students and employees to stay home when sick and [the usual boilerplate]

COMMENT: This was in the Oregonian online Friday, but I had to do a search for "flu" to find it! These reassuring statements are starting to sound like they're all coming from the same script...  

Keep the information coming!

---

by: Cathy M @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 20:29:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The WHO's askew flu fears

snip
We're also repeatedly warned that if H5N1 reassorted with human flu, it would produce a combination with the alleged severity of the bird virus and the infectiousness of the human one. Yet a 2006 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention study found the opposite: that a genetically engineered reassortment given to ferrets -- the best animal models for human flu -- produced milder and less infectious flu than did pure H5N1. Reassortment didn't create a "super flu" but rather a 98-pound weakling.

As to human-pig hybrids, a 1976 New Jersey swine flu outbreak in the dead of winter, when flu is most contagious, infected just 230 soldiers, killing one, on a crowded Army base.

At some level, the WHO knows its definition is faulty. The online "WHO Handbook for Journalists" still states: "A pandemic virus can emerge" by adapting "during human infections." And the WHO has warned that one way avian flu could become pandemic is through a purely human mutation.

But it's also true that the worst influenza pandemic in history, the Spanish flu of 1918-19, did involve an animal-human hybrid virus; that episode has become a popular obsession. Never mind that "each subsequent novel flu that sweeps through the world has been milder," Chin observes. "The public health community keeps waiting for the second coming" of Spanish flu, he says.

So, in 2005, the WHO apparently redefined "flu pandemic" to reflect the popular angst as well as its own.

A less generous observation is that the WHO's "when, not if" avian flu pandemic failed to materialize, and it has now put swine flu in its stead. In her pandemic announcement Thursday, WHO's director-general, Margaret Chan, declared: "The world can now reap the benefits of investments over the last five years in pandemic preparedness." Not really. Swine flu, being no more contagious and far milder than seasonal flu, calls for absolutely no actions that wouldn't apply to seasonal varieties.
snip
Oh My
more
http://www.latimes.com/news/op...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 13:51:03 PM CDT

no wonder!!

it's written by Michael Fumento  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:01:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

The Errors of Self-promoting Fumento drivel

We can start with his mis-characterization of the "not if, but when".  

Fumento writes:  

A less generous observation is that the WHO's "when, not if" avian flu pandemic failed to materialize, and it has now put swine flu in its stead.

I guess it is possible that someone associated with WHO might have said that about H5N1, but I seriously doubt it.

What I am positive of is that WHO (and many others) did say a pandemic from some novel virus was a case of "when, not if".  

And that's exactly what happened.  But that doesn't fit into Fuento's agenda.

Fumento also mischaracterizes WHO's warnings of the potential of H5N1 reassortment with human flu when he writes:

We're also repeatedly warned that if H5N1 reassorted with human flu, it would produce a combination with the alleged severity of the bird virus and the infectiousness of the human one.

First, that is the opposite of what WHO said.  They said:

One especially important question that was discussed is whether the H5N1 virus is likely to retain its present high lethality should it acquire an ability to spread easily from person to person, and thus start a pandemic. Should the virus improve its transmissibility by acquiring, through a reassortment event, internal human genes, then the lethality of the virus would most likely be reduced.

So the WHO said reassortment would most likely reduce lethality.

What the WHO did say could maintain the current lethality:

However, should the virus improve its transmissibility through adaptation as a wholly avian virus, then the present high lethality could be maintained during a pandemic.

http://www.who.int/csr/resourc...

So retention of lethality could depend on the way transmissibility is acquired.  

And with regard to all of these statements, could is different than would.  Truth is, it's all gueses, some more educated than others.

If I can find these sources and remember them, it seems not too much to ask that a "science writer" like Fumento should be able to do the same.

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

Fumento knows better and chooses to ignore truth and instead portrays history in a way that is convenient for his latest effort to draw attention to himself.  Why?

Who knows, but it seems like Michael Fumento has made himself a mini-industry (including book sales) of being the self-annointed nay-sayer of all things pandemic.  Which is fine if you are complaining about things people actually said and did, but not so great if you are putting words into people's mouths just so you can argue with them or try to prove you were right.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 16:16:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Swine flu claims first UK victim as Scot dies

http://www.theherald.co.uk/new...

A Scot has died after contracting swine flu in the first death linked to the condition in the UK.

A Scottish Government statement said: "With regret, we can confirm that one of the patients who had been in hospital, and had been confirmed as suffering from the H1N1 virus, has died today.

"The patient had underlying health conditions.

At the family's request, to allow them some time to come to terms with their loss, no further details will be released tonight."

cont.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:28:52 PM CDT

Possible cases

June 4th

Authorities also revealed yesterday that the condition of Karishan Singh, 37, one of four swine flu patients admitted to intensive care, was improving. (no more references to him so I assume he's out of hospital).

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/t...

June 13th

They are 45-year-old Paisley man Kenny Johnston, an un-named 23-year-old Paisley woman and a 38-year-old woman from Glasgow who gave birth last week.

http://www.paisleydailyexpress...

---

by: UK - Bird @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:35:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's a horrible turning point.

But it'll be even worse if people get used to the reports of deaths :-(

---

by: UK - Bird @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 14:43:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

John Oxford...

... was just interviewed on the BBC news 24 channel and either he's REALLY dumbing things down or I'm FAR too concerned about h1n1. Even though he again made reference to the virus coming back stronger in the autumn, he as good as said if we all get our hand washing hygene sorted out we'll be OK. Good grief!

Oh and the BBC are still using the 'swine flu outbreak' (rather than 'swine flu pandemic') graphics behind the presenters. hmmm....

---

by: dawood @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 15:18:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

John Oxford

has been saying everything is going to be ok, and we are one of the best prepared countries, for a long time.  I respect the guy, he's a good person, but with all respect I just don't buy it.  

There comes a time when you stop listening to that kind of thing.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 15:23:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yes

I've always listened to him but it feels like he's playing on the other team now.

---

by: dawood @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 15:26:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not one

person I have talked to has heard anything about any h1n1 deaths. There has been very little in our two local papers about deaths or h1n1 for that matter.

---

by: Katie Bird @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 16:51:59 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hi UK - Bird

Can you repost the link to this article. When I click on it the article doesn't come up. I did find an article on the death but it doesn't appear to be the same one. Thanks.

UK flu death: More details expected http://www.theherald.co.uk/nat...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 19:34:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's gone completely now, fast changing story, sorry.

There will be more details today.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 02:28:11 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

unlying health issue - pregnant

The baby is just 29 weeks, but appears not to have flu.

---

by: mollyd @ Mon Jun 15, 2009 at 00:53:39 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

One in three could have swine flu (Austrailia)

http://www.smh.com.au/national...

June 15, 2009

THE Federal Government announced it was preparing to ramp up its response to the swine flu virus in coming days, as a health expert estimated that up to a third of Victorians could now be infected.

As the number of Australians known to be infected hit 1515 last night, the Health Minister, Nicola Roxon, said all states and territories would move to the "sustain" phase of the Government's pandemic plan this week.

The shift would mean fewer tests and quarantine measures to contain the H1N1 virus and a greater focus on those most at risk of serious illness, such as the elderly, the very young, and those with health conditions.

[snip]

Greg Tannock, a virologist from the Burnet Institute in Melbourne, said although it was difficult to estimate, up to one in three people could have picked up the virus by now. "But that's based on sheer gut feeling ... We need hard data," the professor said.

[snip]

Dr Hemley said many GPs had been exposed to the virus while caring for patients because protective equipment released from the Federal Government's stockpile had not yet arrived.

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

---

by: tess @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 15:42:25 PM CDT

back to reality

seems to me that's where Australia has been for some time.

---

by: DemFromCT @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 15:44:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

meaning that I think this

The shift would mean fewer tests and quarantine measures to contain the H1N1 virus and a greater focus on those most at risk of serious illness, such as the elderly, the very young, and those with health conditions.

is what they need to do.

---

by: DemFromCT @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 15:45:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

"elderly, the very young, and those with health conditions"

Whoever wrote that is a moron or has been locked in a closet for the past 2 months.

Instead of just echoing conventional wisdom based on seasonal flu; they should be aware of those at risk for this illness.

Those with health issues especially asthma and obesity, those pregnant, and the young.

---

by: mollyd @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 17:01:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

good point!

boilerplate about the elderly, and more need to elucidate about who is at risk.

I was commenting about the necessary switch from containment to dealing with an actual widespread infection, but you are quite right to highlight that.

---

by: DemFromCT @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 19:43:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What severe cases of flu have there been in the elderly?

Weren't most reports commenting on the absence of such cases, and theorizing that people over 60 may have some immunity because of other H1N1 viruses that circulated before 1957?

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

---

by: Jane @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 17:12:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

yes, you and mollyd above are quite right

to point that out.

---

by: DemFromCT @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 19:43:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Seven cases of Swine Flue Detected in Bahrain

http://english.bna.bh/?ID=79781

MANAMA, JUNE 14, (BNA) SEVEN OUT OF 13 STUDENTS FROM THE SECOND SECONDARY, WHO ARRIVED YESTERDAY EVENING FROM THE USA FOLLOWING A TEN MONTH TRAINING PROGRAMME, SHOWED SLIGHT SYMPTOMS OF FLU LIKE HIGH TEMPERATURE, PAIN IN THE THROAT AND COUGHING.
LABORATORY TESTS CARRIED OUT ON THEM AT THE PUBLIC HEALTH DIRECTORATE PROVED THEY WERE CARRIERS OF H1N1 VIRUS CAUSING SWINE FLU, THE HEALTH MINISTRY DECLARED. THE STUDENTS WERE PUT UNDER CONTROL AT SALMANIYA MEDICAL COMPLEX QUARANTINE WARD TO RECEIVE THE NECESSARY TREATMENT, IT ADDED.

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

---

by: tess @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 15:47:11 PM CDT

WA: Emergency rule requires hospitalization reporting in state

http://www.doh.wa.gov/Publicat...

Press release dated June 11, 2009 from the Washington State Department of Health:

Swine flu (H1N1): emergency rule requires hospitalization reporting in state
World Health Organization raises pandemic alert level - little effect in Washington

[snip] State health officials briefed the state Board of Health yesterday on a plan to adopt an emergency rule to require hospitals to report when people are admitted with illnesses caused by swine flu. The Department of Health filed the rule today, and the new virus is listed as one of the state's notifiable conditions, effective immediately.

Hospitals and healthcare providers are being notified that they're now required to report these cases to local public health agencies.  Hospitals will be required to report for 120 days under the emergency rule. The reporting requirement may be extended.

The new swine flu's symptoms are similar to those of other flu types. So, the Department of Health says these cases become reportable only when test results confirm the illness is due to the new virus. One exception is an outbreak of influenza-like illness in institutional settings such as nursing homes - already reportable even without specific testing.

State health officials are working with the Washington State Hospital Association, which supports the rule because it will help the state track this new strain of swine flu. One goal is to assure that reporting is required for only as long as necessary to confirm that this influenza strain is no stronger than the common flu. Another is to keep a watch for widespread transmission in the next influenza season.

---

by: AlohaOR @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 17:37:16 PM CDT

Ottawa raises prospect of closing clinics at epicentre of Manitoba flu outbreak

http://www.winnipegfreepress.c...

WINNIPEG - Health Canada says it may have to close some medical stations in remote northern Manitoba reserves struggling with a severe flu outbreak if it can't find more nurses willing to work there.

The department has put out a tender for nurses to work in 24 isolated reserves, saying it is having "great difficulty" finding nurses to work up north.

"The level of nursing services is not at risk. On the contrary, we are issuing this ... to ensure that we continue to provide a high level of nursing services on First Nations reserve."

But the prospect of losing the clinics at the frontline of Manitoba's severe flu outbreak horrifies those grappling with the illness. Many say it highlights just how threadbare health care is for northern aboriginals.
[more]

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

---

by: tess @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 17:55:12 PM CDT

CDC Summer Camp guidance

Interim CDC Guidance on Day and Residential Camps in Response to Human Infections with the Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Virus
June 14, 2009 5:30 PM ET

This document provides interim guidance on suggested means to reduce the spread of the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus in day, residential, or overnight camp settings.  Recommendations are interim, based on current knowledge of the H1N1 outbreak in the United States, and may be revised as more information becomes available.

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/cam...

---

by: DemFromCT @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 19:44:34 PM CDT

Two more deaths in Utah

Two adults succumb to deadly flu virus (Utah)
http://www.sltrib.com/news/ci_...

Two Utahns died of the H1N1 swine flu recently, health officials confirmed Sunday, bringing the number of deaths in the state from the illness to four.  

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

---

by: KathyinFL @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 20:20:08 PM CDT

They included some concerning facts

Thanks for the link, Kathy!

Did you notice this part?

There have been 688 confirmed cases of the flu in Utah, including 25 cases among health care workers. A majority of those diagnosed with the virus in Utah have been between the ages of 5 and 24.

The number has grown [so] quickly that last week the state announced it would stop tracking the number of confirmed cases.

(bolding was mine) Okay - it's getting so out of hand... they're gonna stop tracking?? Is that supposed to make anyone feel more reassured about how they are handling it? (Though I can't complain - OR isn't even describing their tracking process....) What I get from this is that we will not have reliable information unless or until the media starts reporting hospital overflows, or we see our local stores shutting... way too late!

Keep the information coming!

---

by: Cathy M @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 20:41:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

MORE on the UTAH death:

This is ReALLY hard to pick snips from. There is so much important information here! Admin ... if this is post needs to be deleted ... I'll defer to your judgment.

Flu Victim Family's Statement
http://www.fox13now.com/news/k...

7:40 PM MDT, June 14, 2009
snip

Francine and her mother became ill with the flu two weeks ago today. Her mother tested positive and was treated for the flu and has since recovered. Francine tested negative and was sent home. Her health continued to decline, and three days later she was taken to Jordan Valley Hospital. For the second time she tested negative, was sent home, and told to increase fluids and rest.

We begged the doctors to treat her with Tama flu because it had helped her mother, but they refused because her test had come back negative. After another three days she became incapacitated, and was again taken to Jordan Valley where she was admitted and found to have pneumonia, plus all of the symptoms associated with the flu, but once again tested negative. At this point she had had the flu for approximately eight days, untreated. Her condition continued to decline, and on Tuesday was transferred to IMC Hospital. By this time her body was so ravaged from the virus that her kidneys and lungs started to fail and brain activity had diminished. On Wednesday, June 10 we received a positive Type-A flu test, and on Thursday we received, from the CDC, a positive test for H1N1, Swine Flu.

After fighting a valiant battle she succumbed to this illness. It has been reported that she had underlying illnesses that contributed to her death, but according to her doctors she died from lung damage, kidney failure, and brain damage which were all strong and healthy prior to contracting the virus.

www.EmergencyHomePreparation.org -- A 'card-catalog' style of prepping information.   -

---

by: Readymom @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 21:40:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

death caused by lousy doctoring (and flu)

Who do you believe the tests, or your own eyes? Depends how good a doctor you are.

---

by: mollyd @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 22:32:38 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

True. Plus, regardless of which type of flu, wouldn't an antiviral have helped?

I remember reading something on the FW about false negatives but cannot find it. I don't know what kind of testing she had done but I did find the following online regarding recommended testing:  

Rapid influenza antigen test
Some commercially available rapid tests can distinguish between influenza A and B viruses. A patient with a positive rapid test for influenza A may meet criteria for a suspected case of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus infection. However, it is not possible to differentiate from seasonal influenza A viruses. Also, these tests have unknown sensitivity and specificity to detect human infection with novel influenza A (H1N1) virus in clinical specimens, and have suboptimal sensitivity to detect seasonal influenza viruses. Therefore, a negative rapid test could be a false negative and should not be assumed a final diagnostic test for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus infection.  

Immunofluorescence (DFA or IFA)
These tests can distinguish between influenza A and B viruses.  A patient with a positive for influenza A by immunofluorescence may meet criteria for a suspected case.  However, it is not possible to differentiate from seasonal influenza A viruses.   Immunofluorescence depends upon the quality of a clinical specimen, operator skills, and has unknown sensitivity and specificity to detect human infection with novel influenza A (H1N1) virus in clinical specimens. Therefore, a negative immunofluorescence could be a false negative and should not be assumed a final diagnostic test for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus infection.

Viral culture
Isolation of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus is diagnostic of infection, but may not yield timely results for clinical management. A negative viral culture does not exclude infection with novel influenza A (H1N1) virus.

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

---

by: tess @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 23:12:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

If all this is true...

then a doctor may be in serious trouble. If all this is true then IMO, he/she should be in a hell of a lot of trouble!!  

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 23:17:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Please post new news stories to...

 
News Reports for June 15, 2009

Thank you!

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 23:19:50 PM CDT

Great job today everyone!

A lot of good information and comments on the forum today. Please keep it coming because it is important for us all to stay informed and up-to-date on the flu situation around the world. Thank you!

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Sun Jun 14, 2009 at 23:26:05 PM CDT

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