News Reports for July 2, 2009

2 deaths, more than 400 flu cases reported in Asia-Pacific region Wednesday

http://news.xinhuanet.com/engl...

HONG KONG, July 1 (Xinhua) -- Two deaths were and more than 400 new cases of flu A/H1N1 were reported in the Asia-Pacific region on Wednesday.

Australia's tally from A/H1N1 flu-related deaths rose to eight on Wednesday after a 68-year-old man died in Victoria.  He died in hospital and his death was notified to the Department of Human Services on Tuesday. [snip]

Thailand's Public Health Ministry also announced on Wednesday the country's fifth death related to the flu. The fifth death is a 15-year-old girl, who died in a hospital in Chonburi province, next to Bangkok, local media reported.  The Ministry also announced 59 more patients, who are confirmed to have been infected with the A/H1N1 flu virus, bringing the country's total number to 1,473. [snip]

A total of 1,709 flu cases have been recorded in the Philippines over the past two months, the country's health chief said on Wednesday. [snip]  "The patients range from 5 months to 79 years in age, with 18 years as the median age. Most of them belonged to the 10-19 years age group and the majority of the cases were male," said the official. [snip]

Vietnam's Ministry of Health confirmed eight more A/H1N1 flu cases in the country, bringing total number of flu patients to 131,the local newspaper the People's Army reported Wednesday. Of the eight newly-detected cases, six cases were detected in the South of Vietnam and the rest two in the North, said the ministry.[snip]

Samoa's Ministry of Health confirmed that there are now two confirmed cases of influenza A/H1N1 in the Pacific island country, the Pacnews reported on Wednesday. [snip]

Fiji recorded eight new cases of influenza A/H1N1 on Wednesday, bringing the total confirmed cases to 19. [snip]

The number of the confirmed cases in New Zealand rose to 711 on Wednesday, up 58 from 653 on Tuesday, the Ministry of Health said. [snip]

The Malaysian Health Ministry confirmed 38 new cases on Wednesday, raising the total number of the cases in the country to 196. [snip]

The Brunei Health Ministry also confirmed 10 more new cases on Tuesday, bringing the total number of the cases to 42. [snip]

Macao reported six new cases, bringing the total number of such cases to 34 in the region. [snip]

The neighboring Hong Kong also reported 43 new cases of flu A/H1N1 on Wednesday. [snip]

---

by: AlohaOR @ Wed Jul 01, 2009 at 23:56:26 PM CDT

US (NJ): Three deaths, 260 new cases reported in New Jersey

3 deaths, all males, aged 6, 45 and 54
All had (unspecified) underlying health conditions
No information on interval between symptom onset and death

http://news.xinhuanet.com/engl...

HOUSTON, July 1 (Xinhua) -- Three people have died and 260 new cases of A/H1N1 flu have been confirmed in the U.S. State of New Jersey during the past week, bringing the state's death toll to nine and its total number of the cases to 1159, the state health authorities said Wednesday.

Tom Slater, a spokesman for the state Department of Health and Senior Services, said that the latest victims were two men - a 54-year-old from Union County and a 45-year-old from Middlesex County - and a 6-year-old Ocean County boy. He also said all three had underlying health conditions, but declined to disclose further details.

Statistics released by the department shows that Essex and Middlesex are the two hardest-hit counties, with 95 and 90 confirmed cases respectively. Both counties reported one death from the A/H1N1 flu virus. [continued]

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by: AlohaOR @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 00:06:45 AM CDT

Australia: NSW records first swine flu death

45yo male, underlying medical conditions
No information on interval between symptom onset and death

http://www.abc.net.au/news/sto...

A 45-year-old man has become the first person with swine flu to die in New South Wales and the 10th in Australia. The state's Health Department says the man had tested positive to the virus before he died at Sydney's Nepean Hospital this week.  NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant says the 45-year-old had underlying medical conditions which made him more susceptible to swine flu.

"We are waiting on formal findings from the coroner to determine the degree to which H1N1 may have contributed to the death," she said in a statement. [snip]

Yesterday, health authorities revealed a three-year-old Victorian boy was the first child in Australia to die with the virus. [snip]

Seven Victorians and two Western Australians have died with swine flu. [continued]

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by: AlohaOR @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 00:12:37 AM CDT

A/H1N1 world rate grows by 6,300 over past two days - WHO

http://www.itar-tass.com/eng/l...

GENEVA, July 1 (Itar-Tass) -- The A/H1N1 incidence rate has grown to 77,201 worldwide, and the mortality rate stands at 332, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Wednesday.

Over the past two days, the biggest number of new flu cases was reported in the United Kingdom (2,288), where the overall flu rate has reached 6,538, including three deaths, the organization said.

In the reporting period, Chile reported 1,025 new flu cases, WHO said, adding that the total number of flu-infected patients in the country had reached 6,211, with the mortality rate being 12.

In Mexico, the total number of flu-infected patients is 8,680, including 116 deaths, the organisation said. [snip]

Russia has so far reported three clinically confirmed A/H1N1 cases. "According to the recent information, there is no information about new flu cases in Russia," the Federal Consumer Rights and Human Well Being Service said. (continued)

---

by: AlohaOR @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 00:17:57 AM CDT

Kenya confirms first case of A/H1N1 flu

http://news.xinhuanet.com/engl...

Nairobi-  July 2 -- Kenyan health officials on Monday confirmed the first case of the A/H1N1 flu of a British student who is currently on a tour to the western area of the east African country.

[snip]

   Kenyan Public Health Minister Beth Mugo told a news conference in Nairobi on Monday that the east African nation has isolated 34 students from Britain in a hotel in Kisumu after one of them tested positive for A/H1N1 flu on Sunday.

   Mugo said the 20-year-old British student is now in stable condition, though he is not hospitalized.

   The student arrived in Kenya on June 21 and traveled to western Kenyan town of Kisumu by bus had developed a headache and joint pains.  

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

---

by: tess @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 02:13:17 AM CDT

Londoners Suffer Summer of Winter Bug as Swine Flu Cases Mount

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...

July 2 (Bloomberg) -- Londoners are suffering a summer wave of influenza worse than in the last winter flu season after the H1N1 virus caused the rate of illness to quadruple last week.

Doctors reported more than 80 cases of flu-like illness per 100,000 people in London in the week ended June 28, the Royal College of General Practitioners said in a weekly report on its Web site yesterday. That exceeds the approximate 20 cases per 100,000 the previous week and the peak of 60 in winter.

"A special focus on influenza-like illness is being continued into the summer months," the college said. "Particularly high rates of incidence were recorded in some practices in Birmingham and London."

Confirmed cases of the new H1N1 virus, known as swine flu, in the British capital more than doubled to 1,794 yesterday from a week earlier, the Health Protection Agency said. The pandemic bug is transmitted more easily than seasonal flu among people younger than 50 because no one has natural immunity against it.

In England and Wales, there were 29.6 cases of flu-like illnesses per 100,000 people last week, the college said. That compares with 11.4 per 100,000 the previous week and 6.5 the week before that.

The incidence of flu was highest in people aged 5 to 14 years and in the central and southern regions, the college said. Rates of 30 to 100 are usual when seasonal flu is circulating. Rates exceeding 100 represent above-average influenza activity and are "exceptional" when above 200, it said.

[more]

comment: the article characterizes most cases as "little more than a fever and cough". Is this an effort to down play panic?

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

---

by: tess @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 02:24:26 AM CDT

Review of measures adopted so far in Buenos Aires

http://www.buenosairesherald.c...

Classes suspended, holidays extended, health emergency declared. Know all the initiatives that authorities implemented to combat spreading H1N1 A influenza.

• The city of La Plata suspended all cultural and sportive events in public venues. This also includes the Pasaje Dardo Rocha, Coliseo Podestá theater, República de Los Niños, the Malvinas Argentinas cultural center and the local zoo.

• Mendoza: The Mendoza province government decided to postpone all coming public events until september 10. This concerns the Independencia theater and the Ángel Bustelo auditorium. The government is to decide soon if privately owned theatres and venues will be asked to apply the same measures.

• San Juan province: Until July 24, indoor public shows, night clubs and public buildings will remain closed. Independence day festivities also were cancelled.

• The city of Tandil authorities (Buenos Aires province) decided to shut schools, theatres and museums. They also asked night clubs to remain closed for the next two weeks.

• The government of the Buenos Aires province announced it would reinforce hospitals on its territory with more doctors and nurses as the peak of the swine flu outbreak in the country is expected in two weeks. It also authorized pregnant health employees not to attend work and granted medical leaves to workers who are considered "in risk," including asthmatics, workers with low immune defenses or with bronchial problems.

[more...]

This is just a partial list of adopted measures.

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

---

by: tess @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 02:30:18 AM CDT

82 New Confirmed Cases of Influenza A

http://www.channelnewsasia.com...

Singapore has confirmed 82 new cases (701st cases to 783rd cases)of Influenza A (H1N1-2009) today, bringing the total tally to 783 confirmed cases. Investigations are on-going for the 97 new cases. Of the 57 cases investigated yesterday, there were 41 local cases and 16 imported cases. Fortunately so far, most cases of Influenza A (H1N1-2009) are mild and self-limiting. To date, 300 patients have fully recovered and the rest are recuperating.

[more]

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

---

by: tess @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 02:34:10 AM CDT

Argentina's flu deaths hit 43

BUENOS AIRES - ARGENTINA on Wednesday reported 17 more H1N1 flu deaths,bringing the total to at least 43 in the country hardest hit by theA(H1N1) virus in the southern hemisphere.

Health Minister Juan Manzur said that 'between 43 and 44 deaths' linkedto the virus had been confirmed, a significant jump from the 26 thathad been reported by the ministry on Friday.  Argentina has now surpassed Canada as the country with the thirdhighest swine flu death toll, following the United States with 127deaths reported and Mexico, where the epidemic was first discoveredearlier this year, with 116 deaths. 'The swine flu situation is serious, it's difficult,' said Mr Manzur.

'We are contending with a trend that is still on the rise,' he said,referring to what is expected to be a further spread of seasonal andswine flu with the South American nation in the grip of winter.

http://www.straitstimes.com/Br...

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by: mollyd @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 02:40:07 AM CDT

Expert says swine flu child toll will double in next year

http://www.dailyindia.com/show...

Melbourne, July 2: A leading expert on swine flu has warned that twice as many children will die of the disease in the next 12 months compared to the number of deaths from regular influenza.

Professor Robert Booy, however, said the number of deaths would still be fairly small - around 10 or 12 in a year.

Three to six children die every year from regular influenza. It (death from swine flu) can occur in a healthy child although most of them we believe will occur in a child with a problem, say a chronic heart problem, long-standing lung, kidney, liver (problems) or diabetes," Professor Booy told ABC radio.

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

---

by: tess @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 02:48:03 AM CDT

UK - no uncomplicated cases to be tested

UK figures are now officially meaningless. Why does the HPA bother reporting them?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/hea...

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by: Ruby Murray @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 05:03:40 AM CDT

been there, done that

gives a sense of numbers going up or down, but must be interpreted with caution.

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by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 07:49:38 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

The HPA web site is out of commission

makes me wonder if they've had a lot of hits today. Swine flu is back in the news headlines.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:01:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Egypt: Detained: One citizen and French tourist suspicion of SF

Detention of a citizen and a French tourist returning from Kuwait on suspicion of swine flu
01/Jul/09

Detained by the quarantine authorities of Hurghada international airport, tourists, Jean-Robert French-called «23 years» on suspicion of swine flu.

Said Dr. Hussam Abdo, director of Hurghada General Hospital, said that tourists were booking the hotel in an isolation ward in hospital in stable condition, and samples were sent for analysis to the central Ministry of Health laboratories.

Hospital admitted and detained Mustafa El Sayed Mustafa «29 years» on suspicion of being infected with the disease, and found his return from Kuwait City last June 26 with a severe rise in temperature, running nose and a sore throat, and the hospital decided to remove him.

With regard to avian flu, fevers Minya hospital detained 5 suspected cases of the disease, including 3 from one family  in Minya fevers: the Ramadan Mohamed Ismail «48 years», and two daughters Habiba «4 years» and the joy of «9 years», Osman Abdul Salam behind «26 year », and the magic of Mohammad Hassan« 27 years ».

In the lake held Damanhour hospital admitted cases of suspected infected with the disease are: Hussein Abdel-Latif nostalgia «18 months» Ahmed and Mohamed Ibrahim Yusuf «24 years».

In Alexandria, 31 shops have been seized and 13 Vrcha for the sale of birds without a license and the 3259 execution of the transfer of birds and 32 bird trader on behalf of the Assembly after Vdahm red wax seals of shops and resale them.

In Menoufiya, were arrested the driver of the car a quarter of the transfer and possession of 39 live ducks, and filed a report on administrative Alpajur No. 3788, prosecutors decided to execute the cemetery seizures in healthy safe Alpajur.

In Aswan, Mr. Mustafa, the governor has decided to tighten procedures to address the risk of the spread of epidemics and infectious diseases, summer, and the formation of a higher committee headed by Dr. Hussein Thtauy, Artistic Director of the Office of the Governor and the membership of health managers, supply and preservation of the environment for a review of all requirements of health and environment shop, bakeries, markets, restaurants and food stores all at the level of the province.

google translated
orginal article

http://www.almasry-alyoum.com/...


United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...

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by: cottontop @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 05:36:28 AM CDT

What is the proximity of avian flu cases with swine flu cases

Per above article, you have 7 or 8 suspect cases of H5N1, some in clusters and all sick enough to be hospitalized.

With regard to avian flu, fevers Minya hospital detained 5 suspected cases of the disease, including 3 from one family  in Minya fevers: the Ramadan Mohamed Ismail «48 years», and two daughters Habiba «4 years» and the joy of «9 years», Osman Abdul Salam behind «26 year », and the magic of Mohammad Hassan« 27 years ».

In the lake held Damanhour hospital admitted cases of suspected infected with the disease are: Hussein Abdel-Latif nostalgia «18 months» Ahmed and Mohamed Ibrahim Yusuf «24 years».

Also yesterday I believe 3 other suspect cases of H5N1 in egypt were confirmed positive.

At the same time there are a number of hospitalized cases of swine flu, like the two above as well as others mentioned in earlier articles. What I am wondering is the proximity of SF cases to H5N1 cases, both in terms of where the victims were living when they came down with the viruses and where they are hospitalized.

The obvious concern is what are the odds of these two viruses mixing in the population.

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 13:55:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Beijing school closed resulting from Flu A/H1N1

The school in Beijing was closed resulting from Flu A/H1N1

By editorial staff of 02/07/2009 @ 00:33

Beijing - A primary school was in Beijing closed after his seven students it was known contracted flu A/H1N1, was like this it was announced the bureau of the health of the Beijing municipality.

"As many as 16 students in the Nanhu Zhongyuan Primary School in the Chaoyang District it was reported had the sign deman and seven were among them diagnosed tertular flu A/H1N1," mentioned the bureau as being quoted by Xinhua in Beijing, on Thursday.

The total student totalling 154 people, the teacher and parents who carried out contact with seven students at this time in the supervision. As many as 18 students beforehand did not enter the class since Monday and 12 people among them, that came from four classes in the class of two, experienced the sign of the fever. While four students were known experienced was sick on the following day. Results of the check-up were still not dismissed.

The "health side at this time abundant from where these students tertular the virus A/H1N1," said Fang Laiying, the director of the Bureau of the Health of the Beijing municipality. But, he said, the students still was too young to remember clearly all the place that they had visited before they tertular flu. This primary school had 941 students and 78 teachers.

Beijing was it was reported gotten by 21 people that tertular A/H1N1 on Wednesday, a biggest case that happened on one day. This case made in this China capital was gotten by the total 155 people that tertular the flu until striking 22,00 on Wednesday (1/7). Kementrian Kesehatan China confirmed that in China the mainland was at this time gotten by 57 new cases of the flu began to strike 18,00 (on Tuesday, 30/6) until striking 18,00 (on Wednesday, 1/7), totally the whole 867 cases.

Around the patients that tertular, as many as 523 patients were finished underwent recuperation from the hospital, 341 patients were treated in the hospital and three patients underwent the medical maintenance in his house, was like this kementrian mentioned. (Antara)

toggletext translated
orginal article

http://www.infeksi.com/newsdet...

United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...

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by: cottontop @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 05:48:54 AM CDT

RE: swine flu vaccine

(CNN) -- Questions abound about how to best inoculate the world against swine flu as health officials plan for a campaign that could dwarf any previous flu vaccination effort.

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH...

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by: Ruth @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 06:17:06 AM CDT

USA: more meetings at WH level

http://tinyurl.com/lya5er

CNN has learned that the Obama administration is planning to convene a "flu summit" next week to make preparations for the fall, as officials in Argentina declare a health emergency because 35 people have died in the Latin American nation from swine flu.

Senior Obama administration officials stressed the summit, which will be convened July 9 at the National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland, is being held strictly as a precautionary measure to make sure the U.S. is prepared for any potential swine flu outbreak, and not because of any specific fear of a crisis.  

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by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 06:46:15 AM CDT

more: Obama heard about '76 swine flu at meeting Tues.

...Obama said it was valuable to hear from "a select group of individuals who could speak knowledgeably about the lessons learned from the 1976 influenza so that we can further prepare this nation for the possibility of a more severe outbreak of H1N1 flu."

Among the people who attended were William Howard Taft IV, the former general counsel at the Department of Health Education and Welfare, and Dr. Harvey Fineberg, co-author of "The Swine Flu Affair: Decision-Making on a Slippery Disease."

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

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by: Jane @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 09:31:57 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

definite lessons to be learned

but this is not 1976.

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by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:24:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

busy work?

I am definitely progressive and pro-Obama so I come from a positive POV - but my question remains - is this "busy work" that is good for the press to cover?

Also, this upcoming flu summit - do you have a sense for webcasts and any potential input from the unwashed masses?

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by: nika @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:28:16 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

busy work? no

remains to be seen who is there, and what effect it has, but I am hopeful some of the players from last Friday will be (see link, same venue) or will have had input.

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by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:37:55 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

links at time of summit?

Could you be so kind as to start a diary before the summit with the relevant links?

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by: nika @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:40:49 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

if there's internet access

and don't assume I'm part of it.

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by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 11:57:04 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

will not assume n/t

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by: nika @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 12:09:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hmmm, yes that worried me

It's not the time to go drawing too many parallels between 1976 and now.

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by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:29:40 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

they are also well aware of 1918

so, there's balance.  ;-)

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by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:35:51 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

The Selling of Vaccination to the Public

The 1976 Swine Flu vaccination program would have multiple lessons for any mass vaccination, especially because of the perceptions (some of them false) about what the 1976 decision was based upon and what it produced.

But I think one thing that will be looked at very closely by this administration is how communications would be managed - how the public would be educated, persuaded and potentially engaged if a mass vaccination program is attempted, especially if prioritization by categories is involved.

Communications will be key.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

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by: Into The Woods @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 14:47:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And the risk communicators

will make another fortune.

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by: Clawdia @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 17:35:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Denmark

Reported in Libération:

"Influenza A: A Dane resists Tamiflu"
A first case of resistance to the antiviral against influenza A was detected in Denmark. WHO refers to isolated case and is reassuring.

Last Monday, the Danish Institute of Serology revealed that a man in close contact with a sick person had received a preventive treatment of Tamiflu. This did not prevent him from contracting the influenza A (H1N1) and he had to be treated with another antiviral.

The laboratory Roche, manufacturer of Tamiflu, has confirmed the information while minimizing. "It was something that we expected," said a spokesman for the laboratory, David Reddy, ensuring that this case fell within the 0.5% resistance observed in clinical trials. And they insist: "This does not mean that the virus currently circulating is resistant to Tamiflu."

The World Health Organization (WHO) has also estimated that this first case of resistance to Tamiflu was "isolated" and that there were no implications for  public health." The WHO therefore maintains their recommendation for continuing the antiviral used so far against the virus of swine influenza.

Source http://www.liberation.fr/monde...

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by: Paris @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 07:17:29 AM CDT

Oops

Sorry. Just realised that happened on Monday but was only reported here now. Maybe someone else already reported it earlier this week...

---

by: Paris @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 07:20:54 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

thanks, though

better reported twice than not at all!

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by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 07:28:55 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Search

Hi Paris - thanks for posting!  Especially now with so much news being posted every day it can be very hard to keep track.

If you are ever in doubt about whether an article has been posted this site has an excellent search feature (on the left sidebar).  The trick is to select "Comments" from the dropdown box rather than "Diaries".  Enter your search term and then sort the results by Date.  

Works like a charm - I use it all the time.  :)

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by: NewsDiary @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 07:41:39 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

another easy way is to click

NewsDiary wherever you see it, if it is in blue, and scan the last few days.

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by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 07:48:19 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Glad you brought it up again, because this "isolated case" has just been matched

by another "isolated case" of tamiflu resistance half a world away in Japan.

What are the odds?

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 13:58:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Russia eases some meat import bans, still targets Wisconsin

http://ca.reuters.com/article/...

MOSCOW (Reuters) - Russia has lifted a ban on meat imports from the U.S. states of Connecticut, Massachusetts and Michigan, and from Canada's Quebec province due to the improved situation surrounding the H1N1 virus.

snip

A ban on imports of all types of meat is applied to Mexico, Central American and Caribbean states, as well as the U.S. state of Wisconsin.

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by: MilwaukeeGuy @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 07:42:26 AM CDT

Swin flu vaccine made in Europe

"The first doses of an H1N1 swine flu vaccine have been produced in Europe - but it will be around two months before any is distributed."

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/hea...

GP surgeries in Britain have been instructed to prepare for starting mass vaccinations in August. Can't help thinking that's a bit optimistic myself, and they would do better to align it with the existing seasonal vaccination programme which starts in September.

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by: Ruby Murray @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 08:26:19 AM CDT

not really

the piece goes on to say they have only made it for the wild-type virus (ie the virus that is infecting people), just to prove that they can do it (duh!).  They are now working on making the vaccine from the reassortant seed virus.

But Novartis said although the vaccine is ready, the first batch will not be used, as it was created using the wild type strain of H1N1.

All large scale vaccine production around the world will use a slightly modified "reassortant seed" virus.

This was provided by health officials in the US and is optimised to grow rapidly in hens eggs, which is the traditional means of creating flu vaccine.

Novartis decided to press ahead with work using the wild type strain because it received this form of the virus several weeks earlier.

What the company has effectively done is to prove that it is possible to make a vaccine.

Now work will focus on creating a vaccine from the seed virus.

So much for these breathlessly optimistic reports.

And, of course, they are adding adjuvants.  And singing their praise, not unexpectedly.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 09:43:35 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Argentina

H1N1 influenza outbreak
Review of measures adopted so far

Classes suspended, holidays extended, health emergency declared. Know all the initiatives that authorities implemented to combat spreading H1N1 A influenza.

• The city of La Plata suspended all cultural and sportive events in public venues. This also includes the Pasaje Dardo Rocha, Coliseo Podestá theater, República de Los Niños, the Malvinas Argentinas cultural center and the local zoo.

• Mendoza: The Mendoza province government decided to postpone all coming public events until september 10. This concerns the Independencia theater and the Ángel Bustelo auditorium. The government is to decide soon if privately owned theatres and venues will be asked to apply the same measures.

• San Juan province: Until July 24, indoor public shows, night clubs and public buildings will remain closed. Independence day festivities also were cancelled.

[snip]

http://www.buenosairesherald.c...

------------------

H1N1 flu outbreak expected to peak next week

The health minister of Buenos Aires province, Claudio Zin, told the press that 95% of the swine flu cases in the country "show spontaneous cure", whereas the most severe cases reach 5%. The official also said the outbreak of the virus is expected to peak during next week.

"Health problems will not disappear overnight", added Buenos Aires province Governor Daniel Scioli during a press conference held today.

http://www.ambito.com/noticia....

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by: Okieman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 09:06:09 AM CDT

expected to peak next week?

That makes no sense, except as an effort to reassure people.

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by: mollyd @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 09:12:32 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Severe cases at 5% is worrisome!!

Especially since these, at this point, are all pretty much receiving life support type interventions which may not be available as the number of infected grows to overwhelm health services.

If there were no such interventions (as there were not in 1918) many if not most of these severe cases might die. Therefore could we say that, at least in Argentina, the potential cfr is at least as high as the actual cfr in the 1918 pandemic, just for comparison?

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 14:05:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I recommend...

taking a look at the June 19 WHO world map.  Go to a diary before June 1 to find one.  And then compare it with the June 30 ECDC world map found in today's diary.  (The fact that they are WHO or ECDC maps is of little consequence.  They are getting their data from the same reporting countries.)  Notice that in a time period of 11 days how the case numbers have increased.  But more importantly, notice the increase in deaths.  I realize these numbers represent only a glimpse through a darkly tinted window into what is really happening.  But the shadows seen through this window are increasing rapidly and all the world's population is now available for additional spread.  I believe that there is probably not one country uninfected.  Whether they report it or not does not change the facts on the ground.

Here in Oklahoma where we have had 100 degree heat in the past couple of weeks, I personally have seen how easily this virus spreads.  I will not go into details, but will say this is one extremely contagious disease.  Forget about infected doorknobs.  Sitting next to an infected person does the job nicely.  It does not matter whether you are in the southern hemisphere or the northern or in the tropics.  This virus is moving quickly and efficiently.  One can only imagine what will occur if/when this virus develops widespread Tamiflu resistance or when the anti-virals run out.  Or when it mutates into something more virulent.  According to passaging hypothesis based upon the 1918 experience we could very well see this occur in July or August in multiple locations.  But, this is just a hypothesis.

Two or three months out...widespread, all over the world.  In the third world countries this virus will not be mild.  
Watch Argentina...the shadows there are particularly active.

---

by: Okieman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 09:39:54 AM CDT

Comparative screen shots

---

by: nika @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:06:05 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

UK Cases Doubling Per Week

Hat-tip to Pixie at PFI

UK swine flu can no longer be contained

Government moves to 'treatment phase' as health secretary says infection rate could reach 100,000 a day by end of August

   * David Batty and Severin Carrell
   * guardian.co.uk, Thursday 2 July 2009 15.40 BST

Swine flu is spreading so rapidly across Britain that there could be 100,000 new cases a day by the end of next month, the health secretary, Andy Burnham, said today.

The UK would immediately move to the "treatment phase" of its plan to combat swine flu, meaning doctors would no longer test for the H1N1 virus and urge anyone with symptoms to stay at home, Burnham told the House of Commons.

The first swine flu vaccine would be made available from August, with 60m doses available by the end of the year, he added.

"We have reached the next stage in management of the disease," Burnham said. "The national focus will be on treating the increasing numbers affected by swine flu. We will move to this treatment phase across the UK with immediate effect."

[snip]

"Cases are doubling every week and on this trend we could see over 100,000 cases per day by the end of August."

[snip]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl...

---

by: Okieman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 09:59:36 AM CDT

And we'll spread it round Europe on our hols :-( n/t

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:08:00 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

my personal hols nightmare

Could not sleep last night because I was realizing fully what sort of situation we are about to be in.

My british in-laws who moved to New Zealand will be arriving here next week via a round the world flight that stops in Singapore and other parts.

I have managed to keep our little rural world pretty isolated and prepped up and I have very young kids (5 yo and 2.5 yo).  Do I need this stress?  Trip was planned before this virus came into existence, there is no way to defer to a safer time.

Multiply this by millions!

---

by: nika @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:14:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

While I am above averge risk for complications from flu

I'm not wholly worried about catching it. That is until the medical system begins to struggle. Then...

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:33:55 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

yep, "they" have your back, right now

I know what you mean.

I live in a region that feeds into a profoundly atrocious hospital that I fear would do a horrible job handling any sort of stress.

I already feel like we are living wth substandard healthcare, before any sort of mass casualty situation.  

Part of my push for better health is so that I keep my family way the hell away from that hospital!

I thought it was just me but I have heard so many other people say the same thing about this hospital.

---

by: nika @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:38:35 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I know what you mean

I used to live in an area with the UKs second worst hospital for MRSA. I promised myself if I got sick or injured I'd travel to the next nearest hospital even if it meant a delay getting treated.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:48:13 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

MRSA & C-Diff

Have been lurking for a while, thanks to all of you.  If I can't find a reports or news thread I am on your. Site.  UK & Nika wondering if C-diff infections are still concerns.  

---

by: Hattifield @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:56:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Many hospital bugs 'neglected'

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/hea...

The NHS in England is neglecting the threat from many healthcare-acquired infections not covered by government targets, a watchdog has warned.

Efforts to tackle MRSA and Clostridium difficile have been a success, but they account for only about 15% of cases, the National Audit Office said.

Pneumonia and urinary tract infections are among those which deserve more attention, its report said.

The Care Quality Commission said they would "keep up the pressure" on trusts.

Two previous reports from the NAO have played a big role in highlighting the problem of healthcare-associated infections in the NHS.

It led to targets to reduce rates of MRSA and C. difficile - a pressure which has successfully cut those infections.

But they account for only a small proportion of the one in 12 patients admitted to hospital who end up with an infection they did not have before.

Urinary tract infections, largely associated with the use of catheters, are responsible for 20% of these.

Other bloodstream infections with bacteria such as E. coli are also important, the NAO said, and limited data suggests they are on the rise.

Compulsory monitoring of healthcare-associated infections should be widened to cover far more infections and checks should be done to ensure that antibiotics are being used effectively, it concluded.

cont.

Comment Hope that article answers your questions :-) My Dad and my Aunt have been in hospital lately and both of them were diagnosed with UTIs but the problems were largely caused by dehydration. You really don't want to stay in hospital here very long.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 02:02:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Oh, and thanks for de-lurking :-)

It's great to have more contributers!

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 02:23:41 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Now is the time for the UK government to take public awarness to the next level

There won't be a better time before we're swamped and it's too late.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 11:03:39 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Cruise liner in Baltic hit by swine flu

Cruise liner in Baltic hit by swine flu
July 2 2009, Shipgaz
Several cases of the swine flu H1N1 were discovered on the cruise liner Emeral Princess when she called at Helsinki last Sunday - 13 crew members and one passenger were confirmed as having swine flu HIN! and were treated with Tamiflu. A total of 43 crew members and one passenger were placed in quarantine on board the ship
http://www.worldmaritimenews.c...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:03:09 AM CDT

CDC Has Specific Guidance For Cruise Ship Outbreak H1N1

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/gui...

It includes the following:

where workers cannot avoid close contact with persons with ILI, some workers could consider wearing a facemask or N95 respirator on a voluntary basis. Requirements for the voluntary use of respirators in the workplace can be found on the OSHA website ( http://www.osha.gov/SLTC/etool... ).
While facemasks provide barrier protection against droplet and contact transmission of the virus, they do not protect against inhalation of very small airborne particles.  Droplets are still considered to be the primary route of influenza virus transmission, but airborne transmission can not be ruled out at this time.

It appears to have not been updated to match the guidance for healthcare workers entering the room of an H1N1 patient that changed from "face mask" to "N95 respirator" recommendation.  

Respiratory protection: All healthcare personnel who enter the rooms of patients in isolation with confirmed, suspected, or probable novel H1N1 influenza should wear a fit-tested disposable N95 respirator or better. Respiratory protection should be donned when entering a patient's room.

Note that this recommendation differs from current infection control guidance for seasonal influenza, which recommends that healthcare personnel wear surgical masks for patient care.  The rationale for the use of respiratory protection is that a more conservative approach is needed until more is known about the specific transmission characteristics of this new virus.  This recommendation is also outlined in the October 2006 "Interim Guidance on Planning for the Use of Surgical Masks and Respirators in Healthcare Settings during an Influenza Pandemic".

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/gui...

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 15:04:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Swine flu hitting Argentina hard

Swine flu hitting Argentina hard
July 3, 2009

BUENOS AIRES: Argentina has reported 17 more swine flu deaths, bringing the total to at least 43 in the country hardest hit by the virus in the southern hemisphere.

The Health Minister, Juan Manzur, who was sworn in on Wednesday, said 43 or 44 deaths linked to the virus had been confirmed, a significant jump from the 26 reported by the ministry on Friday.

He said that provincial governments had been urged to suspend school classes to contain the outbreak. "The situation in the country is serious and difficult," he said.

Argentina has replaced Canada as the country with the third-highest swine flu death toll. In the United States 127 deaths have been reported, and in Mexico, where the epidemic was first discovered, 116 have died.

"We are contending with a trend that is still on the rise," Mr Manzur said.

snip

Health experts are following the situation closely in the southern hemisphere, where events could be a harbinger of what is to come when winter hits North America, Europe and most of Asia at the end of the year.

The epidemic in Argentina has a higher mortality rate than in other countries stricken with the virus. With 1587 confirmed cases and 43 deaths, one in every 37 confirmed swine flu cases - 2.71 per cent - in Argentina has been fatal. In Mexico the rate is 1.35 per cent and in Chile 0.19 per cent.
more
http://www.smh.com.au/world/sw...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:09:57 AM CDT

Relatives of dead A/H1N1 flu patient smash hospital

Relatives of dead A/H1N1 flu patient smash hospital

20:47, July 02, 2009

Related News
Uganda reports one confirmed A/H1N1 case
Nepal confirms 5 cases of A/H1N1 flu
Cambodia discharges six A/H1N1 flu patients after treatment
New Zealand's influenza A/H1N1 confirmed cases rise to 825
Second death of A/H1N1 flu reported in North Carolina

Angry relatives of an A/H1N1 flu patient who died "accidentally" Wednesday in east China's Zhejiang Province stormed the hospital where she died as they suspected electric shock caused her death.

More than 20 of the patient's relatives rushed into the No. 1 People's Hospital of Xiaoshan District, Hangzhou city, where the patient had been staying, and smashed the hall next to the gate and an ambulance with rocks. Glasses from the hall and flower terrace in front of the hospital were destroyed and the ambulance damaged.

The 34-year-old woman was found dead at 7:35 a.m. Wednesday in her ward lavatory at the No. 1 People's Hospital of Xiaoshan District in Hangzhou, the provincial capital, according to the Hangzhou municipal health bureau.
more
http://english.people.com.cn/9...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:13:00 AM CDT

Now we begin to understand why 'accidentally' was used n/t

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:30:40 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

So accidentally electrocuted in the lavatory?

Feel like a logic puzzle...

---

by: Quartzman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 11:06:40 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not necessarily.

I once visited a hotel in Italy where the light switch was inside the wetroom with a bare wires showing.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 11:16:38 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Shocking. nt

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 15:06:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

HPAI H5N1 in wild birds in Russia (final draft)

  Published Date 01-JUL-2009
HPAI H5N1 in wild birds in Russia (final draft) ProMed
1. Disease report
-----------------
Russia has reported an outbreak of H5N1 HPAI in 58 wild birds found dead in
Respublika Tyva Region
snip
It also remains uncertain whether these reports suggest
the re-emergence of the strain similar to that isolated in 2005 or an involvement of a new strain.

The current level of reported cases, although not as high as those in 2005/2006 are the highest since that period. Previous reports suggest that more than 6000 wild birds were affected in lake Qinghai in 2005. In 2006 this number was around 900. Numbers in Mongolia were fewer in 2005 and
2006. In 2006 more than 4000 H5N1 HPAI infected grebes were reported from the area of Uvs Noor lake, Russia. Russia also reported more than 120 outbreaks of H5N1 HPAI in domestic poultry in 6 districts. Dead wild birds were also reported from the same districts
snip

Studies on samples collected during the developments in 2005 and 2006 suggested that migratory whooper swans in Mongolia may act as sentinel
species which become infected as a result of contact with other wild birds (Newman and others, 2009). Further work on a migratory pathway between Mongolia, Lake Qinghai and Myanmar supports the phylogenetic relationship
between the isolates that were obtained from wild birds from these areas at that time (Prosser and others, 2009).

There has been an increase in the overall numbers of H5N1 HPAI reported from domestic poultry during 2009 in South East Asia and Egypt. The corresponding increase in the number of incidents in wild birds suggests that surveillance of wild birds in these areas is working.

snip

3. Conclusions
--------------
We continue to consider there is an ongoing low risk of a highly pathogenic avian influenza (of H5 or H7) occurring in the UK domestic poultry and that
this risk has not significantly changed because of the most recent reports. This emphasises the importance of any poultry keepers to maintain vigilance for any signs of clinical disease in their birds, promptly report suspected
cases and uphold appropriate levels of biosecurity at any time of the year.
http://www.promedmail.org/pls/...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:31:06 AM CDT

India - Suspected A(H1N1) flu patient dies

http://www.hindu.com/thehindu/...

An NRI suspected to be suffering from swine flu died in Kerala as four new cases were reported across the country, taking the total number of such cases to 120 on Thursday.

The 52-year-old NRI, who was suspected to have contracted the flu, died shortly after he was admitted to a hospital in Kerala's Kollam district on Wednesday night, Health officials said.

The throat swabs of Stanley Pelis, who arrived in Kerala two weeks ago from the UK, have been sent to the National Institute of Communicable diseases, New Delhi. If confirmed, he would be the first victim of the flu in the country.

Pelis, hailing from Kollam, was admitted to Holy Cross Hospital at Kottayam with high fever and breathlessness at around 7 p.m. on Wednesday and died after two hours, Dr K Shylaja, Medical Director, said.

cont.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 10:52:05 AM CDT

UK - Probe into city's swine flu cases

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/eng...

An inquiry is being held into swine flu in Birmingham, which has seen one of the country's biggest outbreaks.

Birmingham City Council is considering what lessons can be learned and what action needs to be taken if there is a more virulent strain of the virus.

Birmingham was the first place in the UK to move to the "treatment phase".

BBC Midlands Today health correspondent Michele Paduano said there are concerns about the Health Protection Agency's handling of the city's outbreak.

He said there were concerns about schools who had struggled to get hold of information from the Health Protection Agency (HPA) and whether the HPA came into the schools to deal with things.

New approach

The HPA said it had been working hard with schools and would continue to do so.

Welford Primary, in Handsworth, shut in May with nearly 200 people connected to the school diagnosed with the virus.

cont.

Comment A baptism of fire but at least they're trying to learn from their mistakes.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 11:02:15 AM CDT

Japan finds first case of H1N1 resistant to Tamiflu

Japan finds first case of H1N1 resistant to Tamiflu
02 Jul 2009 15:35:04 GMT
Source: Reuters
TOKYO, July 2 (Reuters) - Japan has confirmed its first case of a genetic mutation of the new H1N1 influenza that shows resistance to Tamiflu, the main antiviral flu drug, a health ministry official said on Thursday.

The World Health Organisation has declared a global pandemic is under way from the virus, known as swine flu, which has so far been treatable with Tamiflu, made by Switzerland's Roche  .

Takeshi Enami, an official at Japan's health ministry, said that the patient's sensitivity to Tamiflu had yet to be tested.

The patient, who was confirmed in May with the H1N1 strain of the flu in the Osaka prefecture of western Japan, has since recovered and no other cases of the new flu have been confirmed around the patient, Enami said.
more
http://www.alertnet.org/thenew...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 11:06:10 AM CDT

re:that's two now

The first is Denmark.

---

by: Ruth @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 13:03:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hmmm...

no other cases of the new flu have been confirmed around the patient

Color me cynical, but I have a hard time thinking that this particular virus did not get passed on.  If not to those "around the patient" then likely those on a public train or some other type of transportation or the workplace or school...etc.  With a population of 8,817,166 (see Wikipedia) Osaka Prefecture is not a rural sparsely populated area.

---

by: Okieman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 13:24:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Just 2 cases now?

So now it begins.  Real stats going to be diff. to get with the testing limited in many countries?  

---

by: Hattifield @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 19:21:10 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

WHO - Influenza A(H1N1): lessons learned and preparedness

http://www.who.int/dg/speeches...

[snip]

Influenza pandemics are remarkable events because they spread throughout a world population that is either largely or entirely susceptible to infection. They tend to hit a given area in the epidemiological equivalent of a tidal wave.

In densely populated areas, we see a steep increase in the number of cases, with a sharp peak, followed by a steep decline. Once the virus has swept through a susceptible population, transmission may continue, but at a much lower intensity.

In more sparsely populated areas, the peak may be flatter. Aggressive control measures can also flatten the epidemiological peak somewhat, but only for a while.

[snip]

But we need to watch very carefully what happens during the current winter season in the Southern Hemisphere.

We are still seeing a largely reassuring clinical picture. The overwhelming majority of patients experience mild symptoms and make a full recovery within a week, often in the absence of any form of medical treatment. Research published last week confirms that this pattern, in which most patients experience mild influenza-like illness, has also been seen in Mexico.

Most cases of severe and fatal infection continue to occur in people with underlying medical conditions. We are getting, day-by-day, better data on the specific conditions that place patients at heightened risk.

Without question, pregnant women are at increased risk of complications. This heightened risk takes on added importance for a virus, like this one, that preferentially infects younger age groups.

But there are some exceptions that must be the focus of particular concern. For reasons that are poorly understood, some deaths are occurring in perfectly healthy young people. Moreover, some patients experience a very rapid clinical deterioration, leading to severe, life-threatening viral pneumonia that requires mechanical ventilation.

[snip]

if we are overly reassuring, patients in genuine need of treatment, where rapid emergency care can make a life-and-death difference, may be lulled into waiting too long.

[snip]

However, as more and more data become available, we are getting a better grip on warning signs that can signal the need for urgent medical care. Symptoms of concern include difficulty in breathing, shortness of breath, chest pain and severe or persistent vomiting.

In adults, a high fever that lasts for more than three days is a warning sign, particularly when accompanied by a general worsening of the patient's condition. Lethargy in a child, that is, a child that has difficulty waking up or is no longer alert, or is not playing, is a warning sign.

cont.

Comment More to read.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 11:25:05 AM CDT

US - Health Officials Confirm Marin County's First Swine Flu Death

http://www.ksro.com/LocalNews/...

Marin County has confirmed its first fatality linked to Swine Flu. A 33 year-old woman died Tuesday from the H1N1 virus at an East Bay hospital. Like many Swine Flu deaths, the woman had other medical problems which may have contributed to her death. The virus has killed at least 18 people in California and more than 120 nationwide. One H1N1 virus death has been reported in Sonoma County this year.  

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 11:47:26 AM CDT

Analysis of influenza A(H1N1)v individual case reports in EU and EEA countries

http://www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/f...

Comment Worth a full read. Highlights for me are.

United Kingdom 23rd June
4250 cases
298 travel related
40 hospitalised

Age groups Female Male Total Percentage
Under 10 347 392 739 22%
10 to 19 444 552 996 30%
20 to 29 367 381 748 23%
30 to 39 178 183 361 11%
40 to 49 133 135 268 8%
50 to 59 083 059 142 4%
over 60s 030 031 061 2%

Age groups Domestic Travel-related Total
Under 10 763 87850
10-19 974 142 1116
20-29 386 394 780
30-39 169 211 380
40-49 141 144 285
50-59 069 076 145
>=60s 024 038 62

Clinical presentation
Among 2,436 symptomatic cases (66% of all reported cases), respiratory symptoms were reported most frequently (89%), followed by fever (78%). Gastro-intestinal symptoms were reported from 14% of cases. Gastro-intestinal symptoms were more frequently reported from cases less than 20 years of age (18%) when compared with older cases (11%) (p<0.0001).

Treatment and prophylaxis
Among 3,068 cases with available information on antiviral treatment, 60% were reported having received antiviral treatment. Among 3,028 cases (82% of all reported cases) with available information on previous seasonal influenza vaccination, only 2% were reported having received vaccination during the last season.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 12:02:48 PM CDT

Illinois up to 13 deaths, 3,166 cases. (Normally updated Friday's - for obvious reasons updated today. :P )

http://www.idph.state.il.us/sw...

---

by: Quartzman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 13:40:52 PM CDT

Interesting graphs

Take a look at the graphs on this site:

http://www.peterosborn.com/pan...

Notice around the first or second week in June, depending upon the graph.  Did something happen about this time?

---

by: Okieman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 13:46:24 PM CDT

lol - it's as though you were tuned into my question before I asked it...

Yes - very interesting.

---

by: Quartzman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 13:53:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Those are very important signs

The CFR graph removes any doubt that the increasing number of deaths is simply related to the increasing number of cases. As you point out, sometime around June 19 the downward trend of cfr for most countries stopped and began to climb again. For countries in the southern hemisphere - in particular Argentina, Australia and Chile, the climb is dramatic and at about the same rate, although Argentina's overall cfr is higher.

Also, it must be statistically significant - even with all other factors such as reporting, quality of health care etc - that Argentina's cfr is more than double that of Mexico and over 8 times that of Canada or USA.

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 14:26:48 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Is CFR accurate

if calculated only with confirmed cases? What if Argentina isn't testing everyone for this virus? Doesn't that make a pretty big difference?

---

by: magdelaine @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 17:53:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

not enough info

The rates are very hard to know.  Clearly not everyone in Argentina is tested so that would lower the ratio.  But also notice that there could be many that die that are not ID'ed as flu cases.  Many may just not make it to the hospitals from out of the cities or where health care is remote or "thin".  There was a least one case where someone was found to have died from the flu but was not found in his apartment until 3 days after death. All we can do is use the numbers we have or are given.  Anything else is just one person's guess as to how many unreported cases or unreported deaths there are.  I have a tendency to just use the "hospital CFR" - based on hospital admissions.  But notice the news about 4 hour + lines in Argentina.  It is all a guess.  But it sure looks like it is bad in Argentina for whatever reason (virus, health system, weather, nutrition...)

Be Prepared

---

by: DennisC @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:27:35 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

From a blog in Argentina

Most of the time they were here, I was too sick to do much of anything except shiver in bed and feel like death.  It actually started in Uruguay, where we went last weekend.  I got stopped at the swine flu checkpoint on our way back from Colonia (No joke.  They scanned everyone in line with a heat-sensing camera to check for fever).  The fact that I was wearing two coats, a scarf and gloves inside the heated ferry was a dead giveaway,  but my face did glow on the monitor, so they took us into this back room and made us wear those little tie-on face masks while they stuck q-tips up my nose and down my throat.  Pleasant.

http://greenyear.livejournal.c...

So, at least they are testing at the borders.  Lot of good it is doing them though.  Sounds like it is spreading like wildfire.

---

by: Okieman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:40:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I figure the inaccuracies are comparable country to country

as the reporting methodologies and testing methodologies and protocols seem similar, so therefore also are the "CFRs" in terms of their ratios, one to the other, as well as to the increasing death rates....all things being equal.  

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 20:42:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Concerning the "Novel A(H1N1) Deaths in the U.S." table

Shouldn't there be a time unit associated to the "Est. Deaths per 1 million population" column?

Seems this column will become increasingly misleading as time goes on because  they will only increase.

I'd think this makes it difficult to gauge what the "feet on the ground" are experiencing.

I throw out a suggestion to do that column "per week" or "per month" OR just plot the stat as a line graph? (Though 51 lines may be painful to track.)

Just saying it's the flaw with all of the charts as well because they are cumulative.

Is there a metric for tracking velocity of infections or something similar?

---

by: Quartzman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 13:51:13 PM CDT

The table is cumulative, YTD

I added the deaths per 1 million population simply to put the relative numbers of deaths per state in perspective.  In other words, the fact that the death rate in Utah is the highest in the country was not as apparent to me without the population information.

FW Forum is a DIY type of place, so you are encouraged to create any type of map/chart/information that you think would be useful.  Or, if you want to feed the data to me, I can add it to the chart.

---

by: NewsDiary @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 14:42:54 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Forgot to shed super-hero identity before posting that

Feel free to post any additional/new data that you would like to see included in the table.  Post it either in the daily news diary or the Community Open diary, and I'll add it to the table.

---

by: AlohaOR @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 14:47:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

CDC now showing

TOTAL (53)*

33,902 cases

170 deaths

having updated today because of the holiday.

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/upd...

---

by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 14:59:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Fair enough :) Can't always be a consumer can we?

That said, any ideas where I can find the week to week numbers for the States?
Does the CDC have an archive of that data?

---

by: Quartzman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 16:20:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Source for weekly death count

The CDC Situation Updates for April 23-June 12 are archived here: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/upd...

I don't know why the June 19 and June 25 updates are not there, yet.  However, you can find the CDC numbers as of these dates in our FW Forum table here:
June 19
June 25

(The CDC numbers are cumulative, so you would have to compare the totals from week to week to find the incremental cases.)

---

by: AlohaOR @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 17:46:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

US swine flu cases rise to nearly 34,000

By MIKE STOBBE (AP Medical Writer)
From Associated Press
July 02, 2009 2:42 PM EDT

ATLANTA - Health officials say the number of U.S. swine flu cases has reached nearly 34,000, and deaths rose 34 percent in the past week to hit 170.

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention released the numbers Thursday afternoon. They mark an increase from the 127 deaths and nearly 28,000 confirmed and suspected swine flu cases reported last week.

The United States has nearly half the world's reported swine flu cases.

http://enews.earthlink.net/art...

United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...

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by: cottontop @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 14:12:42 PM CDT

more on WH summit

Sebelius will also co-chair a "flu summit" to be held next week at the U.S. National Institutes of Health. The other co-chairs include Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano and Secretary of Education Arne Duncan. Sources tell ScienceInsider that the day-long summit will focus on making sure that states are prepared in the fall should the spread of the novel H1N1 virus increase as temperatures drop, which many experts predict will occur. Invitees include governors and state health officials, and the draft agenda includes discussion of vaccine distribution, the role of schools, community mitigation, and risk communications.

http://blogs.sciencemag.org/sc...

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by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 14:31:13 PM CDT

so glad to see education being at the top table. n/t

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 14:38:06 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

all 4 topics

are good ones.

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by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 14:59:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

missing:

surveillance, intragovt. communications, and critical infrastructure.

---

by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 15:01:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Individual Preparedness - Again Without a Sponsoring Agency

Missing and reported lost in action:  Individual preparedness as an element of national pandemic planning and preparedness.

Since everyone is in charge, no one is in charge.

And since we can pretty much assume that every one of these agencies' "preparedness plans" assumes some level of individual home and workplace social distancing and that such social distancing requires some level of additional preparation by those individuals, my question is this whose job is it to ensure that the individuals and families that are expected to answer this call will have the capability to do so?

Anyone?  Anyone?

Bueller? Bueller?

Is this groundhog's day or just deja vu all over again?

Maybe just this once we could try to avoid part of the catastrophe and scandal instead of just reporting on it and blaming each other for it later.

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

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by: Into The Woods @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 15:19:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

What?!

And miss all the fun?

I think the chances of an overt and explicit call for citizen preparedness (pres? other?) is quite unlikely.

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by: nika @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 15:32:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

How can the people follow if no one will lead? NT

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

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by: Into The Woods @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 15:38:57 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

How would Rumsfeld put it ..

As you know, you have a pandemic with the healthcare system and administration you do have, not the one you might want to have or wish you had.

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by: nika @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 15:46:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And Bush would have already said...

Mission Accomplished! :)

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by: blackkitty @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 16:26:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

indeed!

Would he have been wearing a biohazard suit?

Or maybe a doctor's jacket.

I would like to see him in a Nurse Ratchet uniform - ok, maybe not (winks)

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by: nika @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:26:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Um...

please reign in the political taunts.  
Thanks.

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by: Okieman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:34:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

sorry

It really went to a bad place, I apologize for any brain sear

---

by: nika @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:39:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

itzallright ;-) n/t

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by: Okieman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:42:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Apology accepted n/t

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by: sors @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 21:05:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Too late

We will not see any calls for personal preparedness in my opinion.  It is now too late.  The "powers that be" primary motive is to keep the social setting on an even keel.  A call to prepare would upset the boat.

Your on your on.

---

by: Okieman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:05:08 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

We've been on our own

We were told years ago that we were on our own.  Most people didn't seem to understand, or didn't seem to believe it.  The expectation that the cavalry in the form of government will  ride to the rescue still seems widespread.
But we have been warned that it won't happen.

We all think "they" should be doing something - I've come to the conclusion that "we" should be doing everything we can to protect ourselves, because it is obvious now that "they" aren't going to do it.

"They" have apparently arrived at the conclusion, how long ago I don't know, that it is more financially advantageous to spend lives than it is to spend money, or to upset the status quo.

We are expendable.  It's time we let that realization sink in and prepare ourselves to the maximum extent that we are able.  I've said it before - if enough individuals prepare, the community becomes prepared by default.

That seems to be our only recourse at this point - and will be even more so in the future.

---

by: Clawdia @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:18:39 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Well said Clawdia

We all think "they" should be doing something - I've come to the conclusion that "we" should be doing everything we can to protect ourselves, because it is obvious now that "they" aren't going to do it.

I absolutely agree with you.

I've said it before - if enough individuals prepare, the community becomes prepared by default.

I don't believe that enough people will prepare. This means there will be those who will seek to acquire my/our efforts. I absolutely believe that we are on our own and that preparedness is more than a can of beans. It's the will to survive by any means necessary. The question becomes who has the will?

The cavalry in the form of government will arrive afterword to protect it's status quo.  

---

by: sors @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:59:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

2nd death in Virginia

http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/ne...

(RICHMOND, Va.)- A second death in Virginia associated with the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus, also called swine flu, was announced today by State Health Commissioner Karen Remley, M.D., MBA.

The patient was an adult male from the Arlington Health District. Although the cause of death has not been confirmed, the H1N1 virus appears to have been a factor. The patient had an underlying medical condition that put him at greater risk of complications from flu. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has reported 127 deaths in the nation caused by the new virus. There have been 332 deaths in laboratory-confirmed H1N1 cases worldwide.

[continues]

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

---

by: Oremus @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 14:49:35 PM CDT

Ire:Swine flu suspected at school

http://www.irishtimes.com/news...

The number of patients treated for swine flu in Ireland has passed the 50 mark, it was revealed tonight.
The latest case was a schoolgirl in Roscommon [snip]
The Department of Health said two more cases were confirmed in the last 24 hours bringing the total to 51, including just four in-country transmissions.

Parents and staff met health chiefs at the Roxboro National School to discuss the risks to pupils and also advise on precautions.
[snip]
Principal Michael Cleary said the pupil "is doing well" and he was hopeful they would make a full recovery.

The five-teacher school with 130 pupils closed for the summer holidays earlier this week.

The HSE will release a statement later today.
Meanwhile, one new case was confirmed in the North yesterday, bringing the number of cases there to 34.

Keep the information coming!

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by: Cathy M @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 15:14:02 PM CDT

Confused on the NREVSS Influenza Positive Tests Reported for Week 25

What is this chart saying? Thanks!

http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/

---

by: phytosleuth @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 15:39:25 PM CDT

what specific question do you have?

nationwide, less samples, less flu. but regionally, such as in NY/NJ or region X: AK, ID, OR, WA, still lotsa flu.

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by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:51:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

4th H1N1 death reported in Oregon

Once again, it is reported only on the CDC website (link), but not yet on the Oregon Department of Health webiste (link) and nothing in the media.

---

by: AlohaOR @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 16:09:43 PM CDT

Tiny bit of information on 4th Oregon death

It was an adult between the ages of 25-64 in Multnomah County (Department of Human Services website).

---

by: AlohaOR @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 16:38:28 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Good for you for unearthing that much! n/t

Keep the information coming!

---

by: Cathy M @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 21:02:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Update

The Dept of Human Services has since updated their age categories, and this death was in the 50-64 age range.

---

by: AlohaOR @ Mon Jul 27, 2009 at 22:46:53 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Two People In Miami-Dade Died Of H1N1 Flu

http://cbs4.com/local/h1n1.swi...

Two people in Miami-Dade County have died from the H1N1 flu, the Miami-Dade County Health Department announced on Thursday.

The victims were a 31-year-old woman and 63-year-old man who were confirmed as having the H1N1 virus making it the third case in Miami-Dade County.

"Today the Miami-Dade County Health Department is confirming two additional H1N1 Swine Flu related deaths in Miami-Dade County. Our hearts and prayers go out to their families and friends for their loss," said Lillian Rivera, a spokeswoman for the Miami-Dade County Health Department in a statement.

The additional cases bring the number of deaths associated with the H1N1 virus in Florida to five.

cont.

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by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 16:21:30 PM CDT

US - ELP woman dies from Swine Flu

http://www.kdbc.com/Global/sto...

The City of El Paso Department of Public Health is investigating the death of a 46-year-old East El Paso County woman, who was recently hospitalized with an influenza-like illness.

Laboratory tests conducted confirmed that she had novel H1N1 Flu (swine flu).  This is the sixth fatality in El Paso County to date associated with the novel virus.

El Paso County has had 313 confirmed cases of H1N1 influenza, according to the most recent information available. The vast majority of the individuals affected have recovered. Most cases have been mild.

cont.

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by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 16:22:58 PM CDT

Not to beat the subject to death, but...

Most cases have been mild.

Welcome aboard Captain Obvious! It just hit me that of course this is true: Even in 1918 it was true. If it were not true, that would mean that greater than 50% of the cases were serious.

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 21:29:31 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Swine Flu Is More Severe Than Seasonal Flu, Ferret Study Finds

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...

Swine flu caused more-severe illness in ferrets than seasonal flu, according to two studies in the journal Science that help explain why the H1N1 virus causes symptoms not seen in regular flu such as nausea and vomiting.

The H1N1 swine flu virus went further into the ferrets' lungs, and also penetrated the gastrointestinal tract while seasonal flu stayed in the nasal cavity, researchers from the U.S. and the Netherlands found. Ferrets are affected by flu viruses much as humans are, the researchers said.

Swine flu has struck at least 77,201 people in 113 nations worldwide, killing 332, according to laboratory-confirmed reports compiled by the World Health Organization, which has declared the first flu pandemic since 1968. While the virus causes little more than a fever and cough in most people, a previous study showed that about 40 percent of those infected have developed symptoms such as diarrhea, vomiting and nausea.

"These data suggest that the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza virus has the ability to persist in the human population, potentially with more severe clinical consequences," wrote the Dutch study authors, led by Ron Fouchier at the Erasmus Medical Center in Rotterdam.

The two studies were published online today. Both groups found that ferrets infected with swine flu lost more weight than those exposed to seasonal flu, and that the swine flu virus was more widespread in the animals' bodies.

When they examined the transmissibility of the virus, the two groups found conflicting evidence. Fouchier and colleagues, who used a strain of swine flu taken from the first person infected in the Netherlands, said ferrets passed it to each other through the air as easily as seasonal flu.

Efficiency Finding

The U.S. researchers, led by Terrence Tumpey at the Atlanta-based Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the ferrets in their study didn't transmit the swine flu strains they used, taken from patients in California, Texas and Mexico, as efficiently as seasonal flu strains.

Swine flu doesn't latch on to healthy cells in the human respiratory tract as easily as seasonal flu because of a genetic mutation, the CDC researchers said.

Inefficient transmission suggests the virus would need to mutate to become as transmissible as seasonal flu or the 1918 pandemic virus, they said.

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by: UK - Bird @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 16:43:50 PM CDT

Does anybody know

if "penetrating the GI tract" means that the virus actually attacked cells in the GI tract? I.e., did the virus in fact attach to, enter, and replicate inside cells in the GI tract?

In a matter like this pandemic, do the U.S. government and/or MSM ever intentionally deceive us?  

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by: ssal @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:00:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Other Organs get hit...

Dont know if this helps. And the news is not reassuring.
Such organ invasions were found on autopsy in 1918 also.
The ability to replicate in other body systems may have been in the inital contact of the later wave, or the H1N1 started to make crafty changes in somes individuals. Able to go beyond the lower respiratory system.  

These researchers believe in was in just 3 of the genes.  
Still Ferrets a little more sensitive than humans, pig lungs & their systems closer to human reactions, but I don't think anyone is going to mix around in the pig much and set off some thing wicked.  See below.  I am afraid I can't post properly, but if you google the key words it will turn.  

Viral RNA polymerase complex promotes optimal growth of 1918 virus in the lower respiratory tract of ferrets."

1918 Flu Killed Millions Because Of Three Genes.  

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by: Hattifield @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 19:51:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hattifield:

If you are having any technical problems posting on the Wiki, my experience (and also the experience of others) is that the moderators and others provide really good tech support here.

The best place to post a question/problem is on the "Community Open Thread" which is accessible from the front page of the Forum.

Thanks for the info you just posted.

In a matter like this pandemic, do the U.S. government and/or MSM ever intentionally deceive us?  

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by: ssal @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 04:13:48 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Transmissibility

The article mentions that the two groups found conflicting evidence concerning transmissibility.  I looked it up and it appears that the first case in the Netherlands was identified on April 30:  

http://www.u.tv/News/Swine-flu...

I suspect that the other group using samples from California, Texas and Mexico were earlier than April 30.  Did the virus change a bit in the interim and become more transmissible?  I suspect so.  Has it changed a bit more and become even more transmissible than seasonal flu?  Based upon what I have seen in Oklahoma (church camp and church outbreak/transmission) I believe it is now more transmissible than seasonal flu.  These studies are already out date concerning transmissibility, at least in my opinion.

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by: Okieman @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:31:15 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

A related article

http://www.reuters.com/article...

New flu may not spread like regular flu -studies
Thu Jul 2, 2009 4:58pm EDT

WASHINGTON, July 2 (Reuters) - The new H1N1 influenza strain may be just a little less catching than seasonal flu, but seems a little better able to cause stomach upsets, researchers reported on Thursday.

Genetic analysis and lab experiments with the virus show it lacks a piece of genetic material that makes ordinary flu viruses so transmissible, a team of U.S. researchers found.

Researchers in the Netherlands, meanwhile, found it lives very well in the nose and their findings suggest it has the ability to stay around for a long time -- and get worse.

Both studies, published in the journal Science, show that H1N1 swine flu needs to be closely watched, said Dr. Terrence Tumpey of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

"I think the take-home message is that we really need to keep a close eye on this virus," Tumpey said in a telephone interview.

[snip]

In addition, Tumpey's team found mutations that let the new H1N1 virus live in the small intestine -- something seasonal influenza cannot do. This may explain why so many swine flu patients have stomach upsets such as nausea and diarrhea, the researchers said.

---

by: jennifree2bme @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 20:56:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

asdf

And what I'm taking away from the last paragraph I quoted is a concern about treatment. If the virus is live all the way down through the small intestine, is preventing diarrhea actually a good thing? Or should the treatment be focused solely on rehydration?

---

by: jennifree2bme @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 20:59:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

it's always best to focus on rehydration

diarrhea can't actually be prevented, just slowed down a little.

---

by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 21:22:12 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It may also give a new route to infection, especially in developing countries

that lack modern sewage sanitization facilities. Water supplies could become contaminated, plus simple oral route to caregivers from virus on hands.

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 21:57:16 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And the chance to infect pigs

depending on the sanitary arrangements.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 02:17:24 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

summit announcement

The White House Announces H1N1 Flu Preparedness Summit

WASHINGTON-The White House today announced that Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius, Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano, Education Secretary Arne Duncan, and Homeland Security Advisor John Brennan will host an all-day H1N1 Flu Preparedness Summit with states to further prepare this nation for the possibility
of a more severe outbreak of H1N1 flu. The Summit will be held on July 9, 2009 at the Natcher Conference Center at the
National Institutes of Health in Bethesda, Maryland.

WHO: Kathleen Sebelius, HHS Secretary
Janet Napolitano, DHS Secretary
Arne Duncan, Education Secretary
John Brennan, National Security Advisor
WHAT: H1NI Flu Preparedness Summit
WHEN: Thursday, July 9, 2009 at 8:30 a.m.
WHERE: Nacher Conference Center Auditorium (Bldg. 45)
National Institutes of Health
9000 Rockville Pike
Bethesda, Md. 20892

The H1N1 flu virus continues to circulate in this country and in at least 100 other countries around the world - especially in the Southern Hemisphere, where flu season is underway. "Scientists and public health experts forecast that the impact of H1N1 may well worsen in the fall - when the regular flu season hits, or even earlier, when schools start to open - which is only five or six weeks away in some cases," Secretary Sebelius said. "The goal of the Summit is to launch a national influenza campaign by bringing federal, state and local officials, emergency managers, educators and others together with the nation's public health experts to build on and tailor states' existing pandemic plans, share lessons learned and best practices during the spring and summer H1N1 wave, and
discuss preparedness priorities."

"The federal government remains vigilant and well coordinated with state, local, and international partners as we prepare for all possibilities as to how the H1N1 flu virus may impact us this fall," said Secretary Napolitano.

"Prevention is everyone's business. Parents, children, teachers, school leaders, communities, government and businesses, we need do our part individually and collectively prevent the spread of the flu virus," said U.S. Secretary of Education Arne Duncan. "We are emphasizing safety and the need to continue learning. We will continue following guidance from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and encouraging schools and districts to be in close communication with their local public health authorities and political leadership."

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/upl...

---

by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 16:56:00 PM CDT

new maps from nika

CA

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/upl...

SA

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/upl...

---

by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 17:00:05 PM CDT

Paraguay reports first swine flu death: health ministry

http://www.hindustantimes.com/...

Paraguay has reported its first human fatality due to swine flu, the health ministry said as the number of cases mounted in the southern hemisphere.

The victim was a man in his sixties, the ministry said on Wednesday, adding that he was the first to have died out of 100 people diagnosed with the A(H1N1) virus in the South American country. (Continued)

---

by: AlohaOR @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 17:29:32 PM CDT

australian doc unhappy with panflu response

Dr Eizenberg said no antiviral drugs were given to GPs for the use of their staff and instead doctors were told to buy it for themselves.

He called for a review of the Government's pandemic plan to ensure that supplies could be readily distributed when needed.

"We cannot expose our doctors and nurses to risk of infection by having them perform high-risk procedures without proper supplies of PPE (personal protective equipment) and readily available courses of antiviral therapy," he said.

Dr Eizenberg said most clinics would not have been able to keep running if staff had become ill.

He said during the pandemic he knew of three clinics in the northern suburbs who would not see patients suspected of having swine flu, instead telling them to go to specially set up flu clinics at hospitals.

http://www.theage.com.au/natio...

---

by: DemFromCT @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 17:32:26 PM CDT

Buenos Aires HC Workers Voting With Their Feet

As predicted by many surveys conducted in the last 5 years:

"We are facing a grave problem here," said Dr. Jorge Yabkowski, the president of the Federation of Health Professionals of Argentina. "Hospitals here have very limited capacity to deal with this epidemic."

On Wednesday, emergency rooms that normally receive 200 patients had to attend to 1,000, and in Buenos Aires Province the minister of health, Claudio Zin, said about 40 percent of health care workers were not showing up, either because they were ill or were concerned about catching the virus. The province had called up retired doctors and medical students to help out.

In case you missed it that's a 500% increase in demand ('surge') on top of the 40% drop in health care workers to meet that demand. (Very roughly speaking.)

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/07...

We won't fund adequate supplies of PPE. (But we'll publish faciful OSHA "Guidances" on how much they estimate would be enough, if somehow you had money to buy it and space to store it.)

We won't fund adequate supplies of anti-virals and we assume that they'll still be effective come fall.

We're counting on our "modern health care system" to save us from this old pandemic.

Yet we blithely expect health care workers to merrily drop themselves naked into whatever infectious pandemic grinder comes down the road.

Good luck with that.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 19:19:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It's pretty much all over now

Butte logs second case of swine flu
Posted on June 24
By Justin Post of The Montana Standard

BUTTE - Health officials have confirmed a second case of swine flu in Butte.

Late Monday evening, laboratory tests found that an 8-year-old Butte child is infected with the H1-N1 influenza virus, said Butte-Silver Bow Health Officer Terri Hocking.

A Butte woman in her mid 30s was confirmed earlier Monday to be infected after becoming seriously ill Friday. She said both people are recovering in self isolation at their Butte homes.
It wasn't immediately known whether the 8-year-old is a boy or a girl, Hocking said.

The youngster's family had been preparing for a trip when the child became sick Monday and was taken to a Butte doctor, she said.

Hocking said neither person has traveled outside of the area recently, and there appears to be no connection between the two cases.

"They would have had to come in contact with someone in town," Hocking said.

She said H1-N1 is highly communicable and everyone is susceptible to catching the virus. It can be spread by coming within six feet of an infected person, she said.

"No one is immune to it," Hocking said. "It's a novel strain."

The virus has spread throughout the state, with only two counties having no reported cases, she said.

"It's pretty much all over now," Hocking said.

She stressed the need for people to have good hygienic practices such as washing hands, covering the mouth when sneezing and coughing and using Kleenex that can be quickly disposed.

Common signs of H1-N1 are a severe sore throat and muscle aches. Treatment with several antiviral medications helps patients recover quicker.

Just as important, the sooner someone recovers the less likely they are to spread the virus to others. Hocking said because of the incubation period, a person is only contagious for just over a week, which is why persons who suspect they have contracted the virus need to seek treatment immediately.

Treatments for the swine flu are effective within the first 72 hours.

---

by: phytosleuth @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:52:44 PM CDT

Yep, nothing to worry about

---

by: phytosleuth @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 18:53:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Link to article

http://www.missoulian.com/arti...

---

by: NewsDiary @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 19:18:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Treatments effective w/in 72 hours

Treatments for the swine flu are effective within the first 72 hours.

That is, unless they're not and you continue to be either sick, very sick or dead.

But other than that, sounds like treatments  pretty much turn this into a 3 day flu.  What utter rot.

I suppose that statement may have been intended to mean "are only effective if given within" but that's not what it says and not what the pandemic-challenged deniers will hear.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 19:28:56 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

ITW your tone has changed recently to much more aggravated with the overall situation.

Underlying it I suspect you are increasingly worried over the changes you see in the flu, and the changes you don't see in the pandemic planners, media and general public.

You've been pretty vocal about the latter, but care to share your insights and concerns re the former? I have a ton of respect for your take on things.

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 22:10:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

maryinhawaii re: tone

maryinhawaii:  Guilty as charged.

Sometimes I get that way.  Aggravated, exasperated and can't help myself from ranting about it.

To answer your question, I have not seen anything definitive yet that gives me a clear read on whether 2009 H1N1 has changed.  What at the very least I think we are seeing in Argentina and elsewhere is what it looks like when a wave of this pandemic coincides with the normal flu season - and it is not particularly pretty.  Even if the 2009 H1N1 does not become more virulent, we have already seen signs of both treatment-caused resistance to tamilfu and pre-treatment resistence to tamiflu* that could make even it's current form more deadly.  I wonder how many deaths we would have seen without tamiflu?  And the very real potential of it coming back in a more virulent shifted or reassorted form is a fact of life.

But as you indicate, my biggest frustration is with the back-sliding of the administration away from our hard-fought toe-hold on getting people prepared.  I don't understand it.  The supposed "mildness" of 2009 H1N1 does not justify it. This "leave the people out of it" approach is contrary to the advertised ethos of the current administration (and I say that as a general supporter).

So I guess that while I have not seen any recent change in 2009 H1N1 that would heighten my concern, I have also not seen anything in this still-emerging pandemic that would lessen my previous level of concern or that would justify or excuse the current deathly silence on individual pandemic preparedness and education.

A lot of folks worked very hard to finally insert that message into the offical governmental stance in order to both 'sanctify' it and get it more broadly distributed.  Lots of good, bottom line reasoning went into that decision and the thought of it being summarily flushed down the tubes has (at least temporarily) put me firmly over the edge as far as my attitude goes.  

I appreciate your asking and appreciate the compliment.  I respect your opinion as well and your inquiry is a little signal to me that maybe I ought to watch that tone a bit. Sometimes ranting is its own reward, but it's a pretty skimpy reward when you look at it in the light of day.  

*

In Hong Kong, a Tamiflu-resistant strain of swine flu was found in a sample taken from a 16-year-old girl who tested positive to the flu upon her arrival from San Francisco last month, the territory's Department of Health said Friday.

She has since recovered without taking Tamiflu or Relenza. The virus, however, showed sensitivity to Relenza.

http://www.watoday.com.au/brea...

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 15:41:32 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Puzzling; just where is the national platform?

Don't they realize they have "left the people out", as you said?

While the Federal government and national leaders must continue to emphasize the importance of preparedness from a national platform [?], it is clear that effective strategies for preparedness must be implemented at the community level and through social networks. DHS and FEMA national policy and guidelines issued since September 11, 2001 have recognized the importance of government collaboration with non-government sectors and the importance of supporting grassroots efforts such as Citizen Corps.

[quote is from the Citizens Corps pdf story posted 2 down from this]
They've listed 7 points that would be useful to survey in the future, but nothing specific to do to get out the message.  What's the point in analyzing the results of non-performance?

Rant away; you're expressing the thoughts of many! :)

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

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by: Jane @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 17:43:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Citizen Corps and other organizations are in someone's jurisdiction

The feds have regressed to thinking personal and family preparedness is a state and local issue. So it's fallen through the cracks again on a federal level.

Most state and local folk need the directive, support and affirmation of that message from the federal leaders before they will move off their status quo "all hazards" mantra that has not really worked to get people prepared in 20 years.  

But if some critical federal plan to protect US Security required a majority of US Citizens to posess a certain kind of rope and know how to tie a certain kind of knot in that certain kind of rope, wouldn't you think someone on the federal level would be assigned the job of making sure most of us had the rope and could tie the knot?  

Cripes.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

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by: Into The Woods @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 18:20:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Swine flu death reported in Ohio

http://www.wfmj.com/Global/sto...

[snip] Ohio Health officials are reporting the state's first death related to the virus.  A man in his 40's in Butler County died on Monday. (continued)

[Not reported:  Underlying medical conditions or otherwise healthy?  Interval from onset of symptoms to death?]

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by: AlohaOR @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 19:30:02 PM CDT

Survey on citizen preparedness

hattip to Roknrandy at PFI!

The National Office of Citizen Corps, FEMA, and DHS sponsor research projects to better understand the public's emergency preparedness and response activities. Below are several of the report findings.

http://www.citizencorps.gov/re...

Latest results on pdf
http://www.citizencorps.gov/pd...

Part of the summary:

An awareness of vulnerabilities to natural disasters motivates individuals to prepare. Most individuals, however, did not believe their communities will ever be affected by any type of disaster.
Perceptions of the utility of preparedness and confidence in ability to respond varied significantly by type of hazard. Because all hazards messaging may dilute critical differences in preparedness and response protocols, preparedness and response education should include a focus on hazard-specific actions appropriate for each community.
Individuals' high expectations of assistance from emergency responders may inhibit individual preparedness. Communicating more realistic expectations and personal responsibilities is critical.

Concluding paragraph:

Civic engagement and personal responsibility are rooted in the founding ideology of our nation, and these principles have deep and abiding implications for our continued national resilience. Comprehensive assessment of personal preparedness in America must be multi-faceted, adaptive, and enduring. It requires investment and leadership from all sectors. In the end, it is the toll on human life and on our way of life that makes resilience such a crucial endeavor. We must work together to strengthen social capital, we must learn from each other and learn to help each other, and we must continue to pursue a culture of preparedness through the active participation of all.

That sounds good, but how can they not urge the Feds to start NOW in delivering the message that it's important for each family to prepare and the sooner the better?!  The date on this report is June 2009.

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

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by: Jane @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 21:56:17 PM CDT

All-Hazards planning does NOT prepare us for all hazards, according to FEMA's

Citizen's Corps survey analysis.  

Because all hazards messaging may dilute critical differences in preparedness and response protocols, preparedness and response education should include a focus on hazard-specific actions appropriate for each community.

How many local emergency preparedness managers have seen this and are planning pandemic-specific public education?  I'm going to send it to mine, next week.  He'll be busy working on July 4th events right now.  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

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by: Jane @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 09:37:47 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hear, hear!

Preparations for one type of hazard can actually be dangerous for different type of crisis. eg Many hazards would demand evacuation where a health hazard is in most cases the opposite.

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by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 09:46:30 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

"72 hours before help comes" is the worst meme, IMO,

when it comes to a pandemic.  "You're on your own" as Sec. Leavitt said, and for a considerable time.  There won't be rescuers coming, but according to the survey, most don't know that.

71% of respondents expect to rely heavily on household members and 57% expect to rely on fire, police or emergency personnel in the first 72 hours following a disaster.
Only 37% of respondents think a natural disaster will ever affect their community, less than 1 in 5 for an act of terrorism.
37% of respondents reported that a primary reason for not preparing is that they believe emergency responders will help them.

What do respondents expect to happen after the first 72 hours, a declaration that it's over?  I think the concepts of "pandemic" and "emergency" need some filling out of details.  We've never had such a crisis here, and our imagination won't take us there without more guidance.  

Few respondents believe they can handle situations without preparation.
o 78% of respondents believe preparation, planning, and emergency supplies will help them handle a natural disaster.
o However, almost 4 in 10 felt preparations would not make a difference

Puzzling results: 60% or 78% think prepping will help?
 

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

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by: Jane @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 11:13:22 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

about transmissibility in ferrets

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/...

and some supplement .

http://www.sciencemag.org/cgi/...

see CIDRAP too

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by: anne66 @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 22:51:07 PM CDT

Please post new news stories ...

to News Reports for July 3, 2009

Thank you!

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by: AlohaOR @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 23:36:54 PM CDT