News Reports for July 3, 2009

CIDRAP: Studies: Novel H1N1 affects deep lung tissue, transmits fairly well

http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidr...

Jul 2, 2009 (CIDRAP News) - The novel H1N1 (swine) influenza now circling the globe causes more serious lung disease than seasonal flu strains and sheds from the lung and throat tissue where it reproduces at higher rates, according to two animal studies published today-findings that could explain autopsies and case reports of severe pneumonia as well as the virus's rapid spread.

And while the studies, conducted in ferrets and mice, agree that the new flu passes fairly well between individuals, they disagree over the effectiveness of different modes of transmission.

A team from Erasmus Medical Center in the Netherlands found that the virus transmits easily between ferrets housed in cages whose walls are 4 inches apart. But a team from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) found that the novel virus only transmitted well when the ferrets shared direct contact-a sign, that team said, that the new virus has not yet fully adapted to mammals.

The European team, though, warned that the new H1N1 is adapted enough to compete with seasonal flu strains for turf in humans. It "has the ability to persist in the human population, potentially with more severe clinical consequences," they wrote.

Both studies were published online today by the journal Science. (continued)

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by: NewsDiary @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 23:47:40 PM CDT

Sigh, that was me, clearly having identity issues (n/t)

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by: AlohaOR @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 23:52:25 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

potentially with more severe clinical consequences

Is that scientific for "we are fucked"?

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by: mollyd @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 23:52:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Clinical for

Clinical for once it is past the nose & mouth this is the fastest moving 'take-out' I've seen!  No one being to specifice about the amt. of damage in lungs seen at autopsy.    

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by: Hattifield @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 00:28:37 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

there is a bit describing the lung damage

I've seen descriptions of almost total whiteout on x-rays and quite a bit was said recently in the New England Journal of medicine.

All 18 patients had radiologically confirmed pneumonia (Figure 3A, and Fig. S2 and S3 in the Supplementary Appendix) with bilateral patchy alveolar opacities (predominantly basal), affecting three or four lung quadrants in 11 patients. Also common were linear, reticular, or nodular shadows (interstitial opacities). Findings on chest radiographs were consistent with the acute respiratory distress syndrome in all patients requiring mechanical ventilation.11

Figure 3. Initial Radiograph of the Lung and Lung-Tissue Sample from Patient 3.
The radiograph (Panel A) shows bilateral alveolar opacities in the base of both lungs that progressed and became confluent. The specimen (Panel B, hematoxylin and eosin) shows necrosis of bronchiolar walls (top arrow), a neutrophilic infiltrate (middle arrow), and diffuse alveolar damage with prominent hyaline membranes (bottom arrow). Bacterial cultures were negative on admission, and no evidence of bacterial infection of the lungs was found. The patient ultimately died.

http://content.nejm.org/cgi/co...

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by: mollyd @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 02:20:03 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Sure as heck isn't good news. n/t

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by: Quartzman @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 02:34:33 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Is the speed at which this flu replicates in the body the same as seasonal flu?

I ask because some of the early descriptions of flu cases in this country mentioned that the person was mildly ill for quite a long time before they really felt true flu like symptoms. It would explain why those treated with Tamiflu are largely reporting very mild flu.

If it takes a long time to build up to larger numbers it might also explain why most poeple are experiencing milder symptoms. Their bodies are mounting a good defence before the virus gets entrenched.

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by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 02:37:09 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

I've heard...

Only hearing from individuals, so take it with the grain of salt, these reports are exactly clear are they.

Felt fine then headache then they noticed fever.  Then within 24 hours sore throat and breathing issues and off to hosp.  

Pregnant woman says fine then suddenly headache & all S/S.

So it sounds like the ones that have a good response or equal resonse keep mild symptoms, while the ones that don't spiral fast after the onset.  Now is that an over-immune response involved I can't tell per reports.  However if there are cases without the onset of bacterial secondary, then this stuff has some very wicked subtle changes!  

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by: Hattifield @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 12:11:49 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

TX: A/H1N1 flu death toll rises to 17, cases near 4,000 in Texas

http://news.xinhuanet.com/engl...

HOUSTON, July 2 (Xinhua) -- Texas health authorities on Thursday reported four more deaths and 1,009 new confirmed and probable cases of A/H1N1 flu for the past week, bringing the death toll to 17 and the number of total cases to 3,991 in the southwest U.S. State.

The state health and human services department also said that, among the 17 deaths, 11 reported and confirmed in June, comparing to 5 in May and one in April. [snip]

About four out of five of the A/H1N1 flu deaths [nationally] to date were adults aged 25 or older, although seven of the most recent deaths were children, according to CDC statistics.

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by: AlohaOR @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 23:56:06 PM CDT

Australia Braces for Swine Flu Outbreak in Jails as Inmates Hit

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...

July 3 (Bloomberg) -- Australian authorities said as many as 70 prisoners in the northeastern state of Queensland may have contracted swine flu, after five inmates in two jails tested positive for the H1N1 virus in a week. (continued)

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by: AlohaOR @ Thu Jul 02, 2009 at 23:59:12 PM CDT

Boy becomes El Salvador's first swine flu fatality

http://www.hindustantimes.com/...

A nine-year-old boy has become the first person to die in El Salvador from the swine flu virus, the ministry of health said on Thursday.

The boy died in a private hospital on Wednesday due to "severe respiratory problems," a statement from the ministry said. "(He is) the first fatal victim of the pandemic in the country," the statement added.

Authorities said that after three days of sickness the boy received medical attention at a local public health clinic, where he was diagnosed with pneumonia.

He was later treated at a private hospital, where he died less than 24 hours later from "septic shock following pneumonia."

El Salvador has seen 277 confirmed cases of the A(H1N1) virus, and a further 178 patients are being watched.

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by: magdelaine @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 00:00:59 AM CDT

Aboriginal populations vulnerable to H1N1: report

http://www.vancouversun.com/bu...

The author of a study to be published in the next issue of the medical journal Lancet said swine flu could devastate indigenous populations around the world due to their sensitivity to infectious disease.

Dr. Michael Gracey, a medical adviser to Unity of First People of Australia, an aboriginal non-profit organization, suggests that the world's almost 400 million indigenous peoples - including about 1.2 million in Canada - are particularly at risk for contracting swine flu because they often live in remote, impoverished communities with limited access to medical infrastructure. [snip]

Gracey said the lack of hospitals and medical workers in isolated aboriginal communities means that while they are often introduced to viruses later than the rest of the population, the effects can be quick and punishing. [snip]

"The underlying factor is that indigenous people are susceptible to infections because they have low immunity, they're often undernourished, and they often have pre-existing illnesses." [snip]

He cited the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 as an example of how native communities were decimated by a virus that originated in Europe before spreading to the furthest reaches of the globe.

"It's a word of caution, a word of warning, that this may happen again."

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by: AlohaOR @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 00:05:44 AM CDT

Argentina: Influenza and health crisis: "The antivirals are not coming to the territory"

http://www.argenpress.info/200...

(More or less machine-translated)

[Interview with Hugo Amor, the president of the Association of Health Professionals from the Province of Buenos Aires (CICOP-CTA).]

[snip] Do you agree with the closure of schools?

The suspension of those classes that have been suspended is a correct measure it cuts the chain of infection, especially by pointing out what might come after, which is the transfer of contingents of students traveling at the end of classes to provinces have have few cases. This [closure] prevents the spread.

What measures should complement the formal decision?

This provision would be supplemented with other measures such as standardizing the treatment that was implemented in Chile. In Argentina we have the protocols but they were not implemented due to lack of antivirals. The treatment [protocol] indicates that anyone suspected of suffering from flu and fever persists should be treated with antivirals and their close contacts. This is not being met because the amount of drugs, at least in many places, is not what is needed. [snip]

What is the status of the hospitals?

Hospitals are overwhelmed. If they usually work at capacity [then] in an epidemic situation they are totally collapsed. The therapies [treatment rooms?] are filled, no places for the patients and obviously there are delays in care.

How many cases drive the organization?

Making a projection of the cases and taking into account that the Influenza A is displacing the common syndrome [seasonal influenza], we are supposed to be above 15 thousand cases. What we are seeing in the internment is the tip of the iceberg.

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by: AlohaOR @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 00:33:09 AM CDT

Swine flu's toll continues to rise

http://www.statesman.com/news/...

CANCUN, Quintana Roo - Swine flu is running wild in the Southern Hemisphere and spreading rapidly in Europe, with Britain projected to face 100,000 daily cases by the end of August. The virus is also showing signs of rebounding in Mexico.

World Health Organization Director-General Dr. Margaret Chan and health ministers from around the globe gathered Thursday in Cancun for a two-day summit.

"As we see today, with well over 100 countries reporting cases, once a fully fit pandemic virus emerges, its further international spread is unstoppable," Chan said in opening remarks.

Mexican officials wanted the meeting held in the Caribbean resort city of Cancun - where tourism has plunged - to highlight their country's success in controlling its epidemic.

"Our presence here is an expression of confidence," Chan said.

But Mexico is starting to see an increase in swine flu cases in isolated areas. In southern Chiapas state and the state of Yucatan - adjacent to Quintana Roo state, where Cancun is located - cases have more than doubled in a worrying sign that Mexico might see a resurgence, especially when its winter flu season begins.

The number of U.S. swine flu cases has reached nearly 34,000, and deaths have risen to 170, federal health officials reported Thursday.

3 more Texas deaths

In Texas, three more people have died of swine flu, bringing to 17 the number of known deaths in the state, according to the Department of State Health Services. Since the death of a Pflugerville man this week, the state has confirmed three more: two men from El Paso and a man from Hidalgo County. They died in June.

The state health department's latest update, done weekly, includes 3,818 confirmed cases and 174 probable cases for a total of 3,992 in Texas.

With the Southern Hemisphere in the midst of its winter flu season, Chan said officials are keeping a close watch on those countries. Chile's epidemic has followed closely behind outbreaks in Mexico and the United States. Cases in Chile have swelled to 7,342, including 15 deaths. Argentina, meanwhile, has 1,587 cases and with 26 deaths.

Britain, which has reported 7,447 swine flu cases, is the hardest-hit nation in Europe. "Cases are doubling every week and on this trend we could see over 100,000 cases per day by the end of August," Health Minister Andy Burnham said Thursday.

Additional material from Statesman staff writer Mary Ann Roser.

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by: magdelaine @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 01:04:37 AM CDT

I can just see it now

T-shirts for sale on the beach: "You attended the WHO conference in Mexico and all you brought me was the lousy swine flu!"

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by: magdelaine @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 01:06:41 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hawaii cases continue to increase.

HONOLULU -- The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention raised the number of Hawaii H1N1 flu cases to 616 on Thursday.
The state Department of Health stopped giving public updates on the number of new cases of swine flu each week. The last update on June 24 was 503 cases.
Health officials said they changed the department's focus from compiling numbers to trying to stop the spread of the virus. Investigators are overwhelmed trying to keep up with the cases and tracing people in contact with patients.
Instead, the state's updates will be provided by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention each Friday.
http://www.kitv.com/health/199...

my note; keep in mind Hawaii is a major tourist destination, and we are in peak of summer tourist season with visitors from all over the world

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 01:30:25 AM CDT

Swine flu 'to kill 40 Britons a day by end of summer'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/new...

Swine flu could be killing more than 40 Britons a day by the end of the summer, chief medical officer Sir Liam Donaldson said last night.

So far 7,500 have been infected with swine flu, of which three have died.

But the Government predicts that by the end of August there will be 100,000 new cases a day. If the same one-in-2,500 rate holds, there would be 40 deaths a day.

more...

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by: sors @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 03:30:16 AM CDT

Swine flu transmission studies (Branswell)

Swine flu transmission studies suggest new virus is here to stay
[Title is link - recommend reading in full.]

Published Friday July 3rd, 2009

TORONTO - Swine flu viruses are missing at least two key features seen in all flu viruses present and past that transmit well among people and yet the viruses are spreading quite efficiently, two new studies suggest.

The research groups which produced the work differ slightly in their views of the degree to which the novel H1N1 virus is spreading, with one finding transmission isn't yet as efficient as with human flu viruses while the other finding transmission rates are in lockstep with those of seasonal flu cousins.

There is no disputing the evidence, though - the virus is spreading around the globe, claiming at least 332 lives so far. And it is doing this without all the tools scientists would expect a flu virus to need to become a successful human pathogen.

[Snip]

"I mean, it's transmitting. But we think it could potentially transmit even better," Tumpey said from Atlanta.

He suggested with better transmission could come more severe disease - not just in sheer numbers, but in the proportion of infected people who develop serious illness.

"A lot of cases have been mild. But if it was adapted more towards humans, it could be more severe. More consistently severe," Tumpey said.

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by: InKy @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 04:24:00 AM CDT

800 at San Quentin quarantined for swine flu

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/...

(07-02) 20:16 PDT SAN FRANCISCO -- About 800 San Quentin State Prison inmates have been quarantined - banned from having visitors starting this weekend - as officials await testing on 30 inmates suspected of having swine flu, authorities said Thursday.

So far, four of the 30 minimum-security inmates have tested positive for having a strain that has a 97 percent probability of being the H1N1 virus, said Luis Patino, spokesman for the federal receiver who runs state prison medical care.

It will take about 10 days to confirm if the results are indeed swine flu. Meanwhile, the quarantined inmates will be barred from having visitors and will be kept confined to the single cell block where the suspected outbreak occurred.

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

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by: tess @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 05:10:40 AM CDT

Study: New flu inefficient in attacking people

http://www.htrnews.com/article...

The Associated Press • July 3, 2009

WASHINGTON - With swine flu continuing to spread around the world, researchers say they have found the reason it is - so far - more a series of local blazes than a wide-raging wildfire.

The new virus, H1N1, has a protein on its surface that is not very efficient at binding with receptors in people's respiratory tracts, researchers at the Harvard-MIT Division of Health Sciences and Technology report in today's edition of the journal Science.

"While the virus is able to bind human receptors, it clearly appears to be restricted," Ram Sasisekharan, lead author of the report, said in a statement.

[snip]

The results of those tests will help the U.S. government decide whether to distribute swine flu vaccine in the fall, how much, and whether children or others should be first to get it.

[snip]

Good news: The swine flu virus circulating today "is molecularly strikingly similar" to the spring's first cases, making it likely that any vaccine could be "a perfect match," Fauci added.

[more]

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

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by: tess @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 05:19:43 AM CDT

this was already posted above from - sorry! n/t

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

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by: tess @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 05:31:09 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

England: Swine Flu is not controlled

Pig flu was not controlled
By editorial staff of 02/07/2009 @ 23:30

Continued the increase in the case of pig flu made efforts limiting the virus could not have been carried again out, said the English government. The ministers said the reaction of the emergency now becomes the new stage "medical treatment" all over England because in the near future the number of his cases will become 100 thousand every day. This meant medicine anti flu still is not given to the person of the person in and around casualties was infected. The laboratory test also will not be carried again out to ascertain the case. This action was carried out to reduce the burden of the health service.

The announcement that has been estimated beforehand this immediately was current. This not meant the virus pandemic became deadlier, but only this could not be controlled. If someone showed several signs, they must contact the NHS health service through the telephone, said the government. If the doctor considered someone suffered their pig flu will be asked for continue to in the house and was given the coupon so that the colleague or the family's member could take medicine in the pharmacy for example. The general practitioners were asked to not give medicine anti flu.

Several observers considered medicine ought to be given to the group that was most fragile because the quite weak virus and the excessive use could cause the refusal.
The ministers refused this choice, but the doctors meant reduced the use in the certain situation, for example when the patient showed the sign was not serious.

The laboratory test has been pulled out in several places of the danger, like London and Glasgow. But in the area of the other English area applied the restriction strategy, that meant the case of pig flu must be ascertained, and medicine was also given to the person of the person around the sufferer to prevent the spreading of flu. /BBC

What was the MEANING of the NEW STAGE? *)

the medical treatment Stage meant the acknowledgment of the virus already could not dikendalikan

*) Many people who reported the sign will not be tested again to reduce the burden of the service kesehatan

*) If they experienced the sign of medicine of the public will be given and they were asked for continue to in rumah

*) the Doctor was asked to not give medicine anti flu

toggletext translated
orginal article

http://www.infeksi.com/newsdet...

(sounds like they are doing what the U.S. is doing. IMO it shows the number of people who are complaining of flu like symptoms and they are being overwhelmed at the doctors/hospitals. So only the people who are really ill will get Tamiflu. This sounds like an order from WHO to reserve the Tamiflu and relieve the burden on the health care system. -cottontop)

United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...

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by: cottontop @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 05:32:31 AM CDT

South Korea to spend $152 mln to secure flu vaccine

http://www.reuters.com/article...

Fri Jul 3, 2009 4:34am EDT

SEOUL, July 3 (Reuters) - South Korea plans to spend 193 billion won ($151.8 million) to secure its vaccine stockpile for the new H1N1 influenza covering 13 million people, or 27 percent of its population, health ministry said on Friday.

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

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by: tess @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 05:35:23 AM CDT

Indonesia: Seven people treated for Swine Flu

The patient was expected by Flu Babi in RS Sanglah Bertambah

By editorial staff of 03/07/2009 @ 00:20

Denpasar: The Number Of patients was expected by pig flu that was treated in the Sanglah Hospital, Denpasar, Bali, continued to improve. The total of the patient's numbers was suspected of by pig flu reaching nine people. Finally, one Danish citizen was carried to the Sanglah Hospital because of suffering the sign of the illness similar to pig flu. The patient it was known was named Troels, 84 years. The patient came by the ambulance and was accompanied by a woman. He was handled by several special officials of the control of the patient of chapter flu.

Originally, Troels could be treated in one of the hospitals in Denpasar. However, afterwards was reconciled to the Sanglah Hospital because teridikasi tertular the virus of A-H1N1. At this time the Sanglah Hospital treated seven patients was expected by pig flu. Two people including being stated positive suffered pig flu. Whereas two patients were suspected of by other pig flu being allowed to leave the hospital. (Metrotvnews.com)

toggletext translated
orginal article

http://www.infeksi.com/newsdet...

United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...

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by: cottontop @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 05:41:53 AM CDT

Commentary: Swine flu animal experiments

http://scienceblogs.com/effect...

It's not even three months since the first H1N1 swine flu cases were diagnosed in San Diego, but already there is a significant amount of science published on the subject. Lots of genetic sequences from various isolates, clinical descriptions of hospitalized and fatal cases and now animal experiments. Two teams, one in The Netherlands and one in the US, have infected ferrets and mice with pandemic H1N1 isolates from Europe, the US and Mexico and compared transmissibility, virulence and pathology with seasonal H1N1 strains. The two papers were published yesterday in the journal, Science (papers here and here).

[snip]

Their interpretation was that their isolates were not fully adapted to humans and one could expect the virus to change to allow better transmissibility and perhaps more virulence. While lab and animal studies may show some difference, the epidemiological evidence seems quite clear. This virus is capable of rapid and efficient spread. It is already fully transmissible.

These studies also hint at a greater virulence for the swine flu virus compared to seasonal flu virus. Examining the pathology in ferrets (and in the US experiments mice were also used), the new virus will infect cells deeper in the lungs. The US team also found it in the intestinal tract, consistent with the clinical observation that nausea and vomiting is a common presenting symptom.

[snip]

There is nothing super alarming about these experiments, but there certainly is nothing reassuring, either. Even if this virus only has the same virulence as a seasonal virus, it can infect more people and younger, healthier people. Epidemiologically it will look very different and have a different impact.

It's unlikely this will be like a 1918 flu virus. But it doesn't have to be to cause a major problem. Constantly comparing it to 1918 isn't the point. The point is that this is an influenza pandemic, and that's bad enough.

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by: Nimbus @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 06:42:12 AM CDT

UK - Swine flu death toll rises to four

http://www.google.com/hostedne...

A 19-year-old has been confirmed as the first person in London to die after contracting swine flu.

The young man from south London, who suffered serious underlying health problems, tested positive for the virus following his death on Wednesday.

He is the fourth person with swine flu to die in the UK.

The latest death comes amid warnings that the number of cases could soar to 100,000 a day by the end of next month.

Health officials are due to give details about the latest death at a press conference in London.

Earlier the Government's Chief Medical Officer warned the public to avoid panic-buying "counterfeit" anti-swine flu drugs online.

[snip]

Sir Liam added he was "surprised" health services had controlled the virus for as long as they had.

cont.

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by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 06:50:20 AM CDT

Focus on swine flu sharpens

Focus on swine flu sharpens
Health officials watching for indications that virus may be growing stronger

By Eloise Aguiar
Advertiser Staff Writer

Hawai'i public health officials are turning their focus to spotting signs that might indicate a mutation and strengthening of the H1N1 virus, following a doubling of swine flu cases here in the past two weeks and Hawai'i's first death in which the virus was deemed a factor.
Advertisement

The state has 616 known cases of the H1N1 virus, according to the latest national count by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

That's an increase of 113 cases since a June 24 tally by the state Department of Health, and double the number of illnesses from two weeks ago.
snip
The Health Department continues to monitor the disease's progress but has reduced testing and is focusing on priority groups that might be the first indicators that the virus is mutating and becoming more severe, Park said.

"It's a fear and it will be a fear until we pass through the fall," Park said, adding that a sure sign of change might be 50 hospitalized cases at once or a cluster of deaths.
http://www.honoluluadvertiser....

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

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by: mojo @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 08:40:22 AM CDT

Hong Kong finds 1st case of H1N1 resistant to Tamiflu

Well that did not take long....mojo

Hong Kong finds 1st case of H1N1 resistant to Tamiflu
03 Jul 2009 12:25:36 GMT
Source: Reuters
HONG KONG, July 3 (Reuters) - Hong Kong's health department said on Friday it had detected a strain of human swine influenza virus, or H1N1, that was resistant to Tamiflu, the main antiviral flu drug.

"This is the first time Tamiflu resistance in HSI virus (was) found in Hong Kong," a spokesman said in a statement, adding that similar cases had been reported in Denmark and Japan.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenew...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

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by: mojo @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 08:41:36 AM CDT

Hong Kong: First Tamiflu-resistant swine flu case found in teenager

Hat-tip Monotreme at PFI:

http://www.thestandard.com.hk/...

A 16-year-old girl was found to be infected with a mutation of the swine flu virus that is resistant to the antiviral Tamiflu soon after arriving from San Francisco, the Department of Health said today.

It is the first such case in Hong Kong. Similar cases have been reported in Denmark and Japan.

The teenager was intercepted at the airport on June 11 and admitted to Queen Mary Hospital.

She opted not to be put on a course of Tamiflu before testing positive for the swine flu strain, which is known to be resistant to the antiviral.

[snip]

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by: Pixie @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 08:45:42 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

The girl who traveled to Hong Kong

did not pick up her strain in Hong Kong, and she did not pick up her strain as a result of Tamiflu treatment.

She's taken no Tamiflu.

She brought this strain in from San Francisco - she had no time to be infected in HK, she was found to be ill at the airport.  

This Tamiflu-resistant strain came from the U.S., from San Francisco.  

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by: Pixie @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 08:47:16 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

So there is much more out there

Since 3 cases have been rapidly and around the globe there is more of this out there, Yes? And it's here in US?

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by: Hattifield @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 12:30:37 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

thats what the reports are implying

transit point for this already sick person was San Fran.  Thats not evidence that its in San Fran but it does mean that she got it before Hong Kong

This one is interesting because she took NO tamiflu giving strong evidence for transmission of resistant strain

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by: nika @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 13:20:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Hospital stretcher bearer contracts swine flu

Hospital stretcher bearer contracts swine flu
The number of swine flu cases in Greece rose to 108 yesterday after another seven people tested positive for the virus, the Health Ministry said. One of the new sufferers is a stretcher bearer working at Athens's Sismanogleio Hospital (photo) which has been handling most of the suspect cases appearing in the capital.
snip
http://www.ekathimerini.com//4...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

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by: mojo @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 08:43:32 AM CDT

Tamiflu Resistant Swine H1N1 in Hong Kong and San Francisco

Commentary

Recombinomics Commentary 13:36
July 3, 2009
http://www.recombinomics.com/N...
The virus was identified during PHLSB's routine sensitivity test of HSI virus to oseltamivir and zanamivir, the spokesman said.

"This is the first time Tamiflu resistance in HSI virus found in Hong Kong," he said, adding that similar cases were also reported in Denmark and possibly Japan.

"Tests showed that this strain is sensitive to zanamivir (Relenza)," he said.

The virus was isolated from the specimen taken from a 16-year-old girl coming from San Francisco. She was intercepted by Port Health Office at the Hong Kong International Airport on June 11 upon arrival. The girl was then admitted to Queen Mary Hospital for isolation. She was tested positive to HSI but opted not to take tamiflu. She had mild symptoms and was eventually discharged upon recovery on June 18.

The spokesman noted that PHLSB conducted routine sensitivity tests on specimens taken from confirmed HSI patients.

-------------------

The above comments from the Hong Kong Department of Health press release describe Tamiflu resistance (presumably H274Y, aka H275Y) in a patient arriving from San Francisco. The resistance was discovered during routine surveillance and there is no indication the patient was taking oseltamivir, indicating the pandemic H1N1 was evolutionarily fit.

The two other cases described this were (in Denmark and Japan) were in patients under prophylactic treat of Tamiflu. In both cases the resistance was due to H274Y (and discovered because of the prophylactic treatment).

Evolutionarily fit swine flu with H274Y is cause for concern. Last year seasonal H1N1 with H274Y spread worldwide. It had previous spread from one genetic background to another via genetic hitchhiking and recombination.

It is likely that H274Y in pandemic H1N1 will now follow a similar, but accelerated, pathway due to widespread use of oseltamivir to control the spread of pandemic H1N1.

The export of H274Y from San Francisco, and failure to identify the polymorphism in the United States, raises serious surveillance concerns.

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by: Pixie @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 08:43:45 AM CDT

First Suspected Swine Flu Patient Death In India

First Suspected Swine Flu Patient Death In India
Siddique Islam - AHN Correspondent

New Delhi, India (AHN) - A 51-year-old non-resident India (NRI) suspected to be suffering from swine flu died at a private hospital in Kollam district of Kerala, health officials confirmed Thursday.

The NRI, who would be the first victim of the flu in India, died shortly after he was admitted to the district hospital in on Wednesday night, they added.

"The man, identified as Stanely Pelis, had returned from the United Kingdom (UK) in early June. The end came around 9 pm (local time), just a couple of hours after he was admitted to the Holy Cross hospital,'' the state's director of health services K Shylaja was quoted by the Times of India, a local newspaper, as saying.

Shylaja also said a throat swab has been sent to the National Institute of Communicable Diseases in the capital, Delhi to identify if it was indeed the H1N1 virus.

Meanwhile, two persons who deplaned at the Nedumbasseri International Airport in Kochi with symptoms of the influenza have been admitted to special wards and placed under observation.
http://www.allheadlinenews.com...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 08:47:34 AM CDT

Brunei reports first H1N1 flu death

Brunei reports first H1N1 flu death
Posted: 03 July 2009 1722 hrs

BANDAR SERI BEGAWAN - A 12-year-old girl has become the first person to die in Brunei from the Influenza A(H1N1) virus, the health ministry said Friday.

The girl, who died on Thursday, had tested positive for A(H1N1) influenza, and the ministry said it was investigating how she contracted the virus.

Brunei, an Islamic monarchy on the northern tip of Borneo island in Southeast Asia, has 93 H1N1 flu cases so far.
http://www.channelnewsasia.com...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 08:49:12 AM CDT

Tamiflu policy was 'indefensible'

Tamiflu policy was 'indefensible'

Senior public health doctors in Birmingham have criticised the policy of giving tamiflu to patients without swine flu as "indefensible".

Jacky Chambers at Heart of Birmingham NHS Primary Care Trust, said the policy applied by the Health Protection Agency (HPA) was "inconsistent and confused".

The policy appeared to be politically driven, the doctor said in an open letter to the British Medical Journal.

The HPA said it was especially cautious initially when information was limited.

However, Dr Chambers, the trust's director of public health, said the policy had been ineffective and not based on any credible evidence.

She said in Birmingham decisions over children receiving prophylaxis (anti-viral drugs for preventative means) had "varied between the whole school, no school and single classes".

She wrote in some cases tamiflu had been given to "pupils sitting within one metre" of someone with the virus and in others to pupils "listed on the school register as having medical conditions (which include those who wear glasses)."

'Potential harm'

Dr Chambers wrote: "Mass prophylaxis of healthy people with antiviral drugs is an irrational, indefensible and ineffective response".

She also wrote such policies may promote "bad hygiene practices" because children treated with tamiflu appeared to have later developed swine flu symptoms and returned to school still unwell.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 08:51:26 AM CDT

This is SOP for the UK

On paper the plans are great but in practice the procedures are only as good as the people on the ground. Some areas have done great, some badly. I give repeated thanks that we're having this time to demonstrate how patchy the response is. No practice session would have brought the real bugs out of the system.

Much of the complaints are about ignorance of plans that have been in place for years.

Business, health workers and members of the public are are only now beginning to really think about pandemics as an issue. Many of them supposedly have plans and are  just beginning to realise that box ticking is not good enough.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 09:42:30 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

practice, practice, practice

drill, baby, drill.

Skimping on that (first to be cut in budget crunches) always kills you in the end.

---

by: DemFromCT @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 11:22:44 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

What irked me most about all the plans I read

was the bulk of the literature was about meetings and assigning tasks to job titles but few lists of what those tasks would be.

I kept grumbling to the screen "but what are you going to DO!"

Susan and I have both said that the arrangements for the dead are far more explicitly documented than the plans for the living. I suppose it's because people tend to be moree predictable once they stop breathing.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 13:29:01 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

they have tamiflu

and they have mortuary services.  Or at least these are the items that get talked about.  Whether and how well they are prepared, is a different story.

Oh, and cough into a tissue...

And aiming at vaccinating the whole population with vaccines containing novel adjuvants.  These vaccines are likely to be protective against the virus, but how many will end up with chronic, debilitating or even fatal adverse events?  I can't tell.  But the stories coming out about the HPV vaccine Cervarix (also by GSK and using similar adjuvants) are very sobering.  



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 13:44:19 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Excellent way ....

Excellent way to encourage tamiflu resistance.

Has tamiflu been the little boy with his finger in the dike?

Once tamiflu is no longer an effective counter measure, will the public perceive the situation differently?

How will people react when they are forced to reconsider a pandemic they were "assured" was mild and on its way into oblivion?

Will widespread fear that arises from a growing understanding of no tamiflu as a backstop encourage (push) many people to early-adopt the planned "global" vaccine campaign?

Will the sun actually keep shining here in MA and my tomatoes live to see another day?

I seem to have a few questions this morning.

---

by: nika @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 09:44:00 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

The sun will keep shining...

but watch your tomatoes closely.  The hornworms are out in great force this year.  Picked 20-25 today alone.  

---

by: Okieman @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 13:46:41 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I hate to ask

what one does with 20-25 hornworms, but if I see any posts from Okieman about canning sessions and mystery meat, I'm running the other way.

---

by: AlohaOR @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 21:07:03 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Meat and wine combinations

Does OMMC (Okieman Mystery Meat Chili) go well with BBRWFK?

---

by: AlohaOR @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 21:34:13 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

AlohaOR, I think

anything goes with BBRWFK! LOL!  

United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...

---

by: cottontop @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 21:43:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Chickens

The chickens get the hornworms.  They love them.

They run around appearing to say, "I've got a worm, I've got a worm, you don't, I've got a worm!!!"  While the other chickens chase after them appearing to say, "I want that worm, I want that worm, give him to me, I want that worm!!!"

Yeah, I know...simple things amuse simple minds ;-)

---

by: Okieman @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 22:01:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

permaculture worms

Permaculture folks say there's no excess of worms, but lack of chicken.

The design principle behind that is "the problem is the solution": something that looks wrong is really a solution of something else if we design it carefully.

Disclaimer: I'm not a permaculture expert.  They take things slow.  Sheeze!  ;-)

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

---

by: lugon @ Sat Jul 04, 2009 at 01:35:34 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

cilantro and parasitic wasps

We have plenty of chickens, they would love the worms no doubt.

I plant and let cilantro go to seed amongst the tomatoes because they attract the parasitic wasps that feast on hornworms.

The nasty weather here in MA has killed many of my blossoms and my plants look like the night of the living dead.

Hornworms are truly the very last thing I am worried about right now!

---

by: nika @ Sat Jul 04, 2009 at 09:02:02 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Public warned to avoid 'panic buying' swine flu drugs online

Public warned to avoid 'panic buying' swine flu drugs online
The Government's Chief Medical Officer today warned the public to avoid panic-buying "counterfeit" anti-swine flu drugs online after it was revealed the number of new cases could reach 100,000 per day.

Sir Liam Donaldson, who confirmed yesterday that the UK has moved past the stage of containing the swine flu outbreak and into the "treatment phase", said there was no need for people to resort to the internet to self-medicate amid fears over the spread.

He said Britain had a massive stockpile of Tamiflu and would be one of the first countries to have access to a vaccine, with the first supplies arriving at the end of August.

Sir Liam told GMTV: "There's generally a growth in people ordering drugs from the internet worldwide and there's a lot of concern amongst health authorities that people might buy counterfeit drugs.

"I think this is a similar situation - people shouldn't buy Tamiflu from the internet.

"We have got a massive stockpile in this country and everybody can have access to it through the National Health Service."
Sir Liam added he was "surprised" health services had controlled the virus for as long as they had.
snip
http://www.24dash.com/news/Cen...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 08:53:52 AM CDT

Egregious Nonsense

First the British do everything possible not to recognise and treat community transmission cases by using that ridiculous algorithm to decide when to test and treat, then they obfuscate the statistics and discuss meaningless numbers like calls to help lines.

Then they invent a "magic telephone number" that you are supposed to call to receive Tamiflu if you are ill.

Now they tell people not to try and acquire Tamiflu themselves and instead rely on the magic telephone number to the Government as their only source of assistance.

...and that telephone hotline and distribution system has yet to even be established, let alone tested. Talk about putting all you eggs in one basket.

....And then Sir Liam pats his health service on the back, saying he is "Surprised" they have done as well as they have???????????

My suspicion is that the conversation in the corridors of power went something like this......

Mandarin: "Now XXXXXX, who would be most at risk in your pandemic?"

Health Official: "All people with pre existing conditions, like diabetes, cancer, heart disease and of course the very elderly"

Mandarin: "You mean all those people whose treatments and care  consume almost half the NHS budget every year might die?"

HO: "Yes"

Mandarin: "Well that would be a terrible thing wouldn't it?"

---

by: Walrus @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 14:42:52 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Chinese swine flu patient electrocuted in shower

 The verdict is in. mojo

Chinese swine flu patient electrocuted in shower

Beijing - An electric shock killed a swine flu patient while she was taking a shower at a hospital in eastern China's Hangzhou city, state media reported on Friday. An autopsy on Lou Yihong, 34, who was under treatment for H1N1 influenza at the No 1 People's Hospital in Hangzhou's Xiaoshan district, found that she died accidentally from electrocution early Wednesday.

"The patient died of electrocution caused by a leakage of electricity from electrical circuits in her ward lavatory when she was taking a shower," the official Xinhua news agency quoted police and health officials as saying in a joint statement.

More than 50 of Lou's relatives protested at the hospital on Wednesday and Thursday, causing minor damage to the hospital entrance and an ambulance, the agency said.

Some of her relatives had discussed compensation for Lou's death with hospital staff, it said.

Lou had shown signs of recovery since she was admitted on June 23 and her temperature was normal for the week before she died, earlier reports said.
snip
http://www.earthtimes.org/arti...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 08:55:35 AM CDT

Learning to Live in a World with the H1N1 Pandemic

Learning to Live in a World with the H1N1 Pandemic

http://smtp01.kff.org/...

The CSIS Global Health Policy Center and the Henry J. Kaiser Family Foundation, in partnership with the Congressional Global Health Caucus, sponsored a briefing on the current H1N1 flu outbreak.

>The event featured two leading experts, Dr. Harvey Fineberg, president of the Institute of Medicine, and Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, discussing the current outbreak and the critical policy decisions that lie ahead, as the U.S. government, the World Health Organization, and other institutions attempt to ensure adequate preparedness.

A podcast is also available.

---

by: DemFromCT @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 10:54:03 AM CDT

Health minister: 100,000 swine flu cases in Argentina

 Health minister: 100,000 swine flu cases in Argentina

Buenos Aires - The number of swine flu cases in Argentina rose drastically on Friday, with the new government health minister reporting an estimated 100,000 cases of of the A(H1N1) virus. At least 44 people have died, including two new deaths in the province of Santa Fe, the country's new Health Minister Juan Luis Manzur said. The estimate of infected includes those who have already recovered, minor cases and those without symptoms, he said.

The last official figure released last week stood at 1,587 infected and 26 dead. Argentina has seen the third most deaths from the virus after Mexico and the United States.

The country has closed most public facilities, including schools and universities. Many cities and towns have also ordered the closure of shops, restaurants, cafes, sports centres and dance halls.
http://www.earthtimes.org/arti...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 11:06:26 AM CDT

UK - Changes to HPA pandemic flu media updates

http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPA...

Government's announcement yesterday (July 02 2009) that the UK is moving to a new phase in the response to the current pandemic flu virus means there will be a change to the surveillance information that the Health Protection Agency will be able to provide to the media in future.

[snip]

The HPA will, therefore, no longer be providing a daily update of the numbers of cases confirmed through laboratory tests. From next week, the Health Protection Agency's Centre for Infections press office will instead issue a weekly media alert covering the various surveillance systems the Agency will be using to monitor the ongoing situation. This will also be available in the News section of the Agency's website at www.hpa.org.uk. The exact day these new weekly alerts will start will be confirmed next week.

cont.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 11:09:40 AM CDT

The way information is likely to be reported

http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAw...

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 11:14:01 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Thanks for that, UK-Bird

I was wondering whether they would update the figures today. Interesting that this report is going to be on the website for the next week - with the UK case numbers being at least 1000 fewer than the reported total posted yesterday, and the US deaths at 127, rather than the 170 which was posted all last week. No mention of Argentina or the resurgence in Mexico or the Tamiflu-resistant strains. Trying to buy another week of ignorance?

---

by: Ruby Murray @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 11:38:23 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

The report traditionally comes out on a Wednesday.

There are other graphs that come out at the same time.

http://www.hpa.org.uk/webw/HPA...

Their site was very busy over the last two days. It was either the media or medical staff trying to find out what was going on.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 13:39:23 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Fake Tamiflu 'out-spams Viagra on Web'

http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH...

LONDON, England (CNN)  -- The number of Internet scammers offering fake anti-swine flu drug Tamiflu has surpassed those selling counterfeit Viagra, a UK body said Friday.

(snip)

"Since the outbreak, every Web site that used to sell Viagra is now selling Tamiflu. We are pretty sure that the same people are making the Tamiflu as are making the Viagra."

The RPS research suggests more than two million people regularly buy medicine over the Internet. However, the majority of those are from registered online pharmacies.

Pruce cautioned against buying Tamiflu over the Internet, saying, "we know that half the Viagra on the Internet is fake and half the Tamiflu that's around will probably be fake as well.

"The fake drugs could have anything from sugar to another drug that's similar, or often it's a lower dose of the drug, or even rat poison."

---

by: nika @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 12:20:48 PM CDT

Swine flu - your questions answered

Well, not really.

England's Chief Medical Officer, Sir Liam Donaldson, answers questions sent in by the Great British Public:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/hea...

---

by: Ruby Murray @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 12:22:42 PM CDT

indeed. Not really n/t

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 13:33:36 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Welcome to the NHS help line

Press 1 to listen to some soothing music
Press 2 to be told stuff you already know
Press 3 to be told stuff that is new but factually incorrect
Press 4 to tell a bored, untrained telesales worker your symptoms who will sympathise and then put you on hold till you hang up
Press 5 for an irritated nurse who doesn't know why you've rung her and tell you to call your GP
Press 6 to book a cinema ticket
Press 7 to buy counterfeit Tamiflu
Press 8 to listen to 'a prayer for the sick'
Press 9 for the Co Op undertakers department
Press 0 if you think it would help.
Thank you for calling this service we hope to hear from you again in your next incarnation. Beeeeeeeeep.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 13:55:42 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

it would be funny if this wasn't so real

but still, thanks for the dark humor.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 14:07:47 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

ROTFL! Thanks, UK-Bird! n/t

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

---

by: Jane @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 14:23:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

ROFLMAO

ROFLMAO! Unfortunately that is what is going to happen..

---

by: Walrus @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 15:03:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

SOD III: Friend of Las Vegas H1N1 Victim Speaks Out

http://www.lasvegasnow.com/Glo...

(SOD III like profile)

(snip)

When Talley first became sick, he thought he had food poisoning but the virus that is now a global pandemic ended up killing him.

"He came back from the doctor's office, and he said, 'they say I have food poisoning.'"

Luc Mayer lived with Talley and two other roommates. They saw their friend's health go down fast.

"He came home on Monday, looked at him, he looked worse. He went back to the emergency room, and they checked him into the hospital."

Talley was admitted at Mountain View Hospital on June 15 for pneumonia.

"He never came out," Mayer said. He says that Talley did not respond to Tamiflu or other treatments. He says his friend kept getting worse and ended up in ICU for 13 days.

(snip)

What's frustrating for Mayer is that Talley's first four tests came back negative. Only the fifth test was positive for H1N1. He died three days later and Mayer has lots of questions.

(snip)

How Talley got the virus or why it killed him may never be known. None of his roommates have become ill and they are well past the incubation period. No one from the Southern Nevada Health District could comment about specifics on this latest swine flu death because of medical privacy issues.

---

by: nika @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 12:23:06 PM CDT

Fourth death tied to swine flu in state reported in Snohomish County

http://seattletimes.nwsource.c...

Snohomish County man is the fourth Washington resident with a confirmed case of swine flu to die.

(snip)

unidentified middle-aged man who also had other unspecified health problems. He died June 24.

(snip)

98 state residents have been hospitalized with the illness.

The other deaths have involved a Seattle man in his 70s, a Snohomish County man in his 30s and a Tacoma woman in her 20s. All had underlying health conditions.

---

by: nika @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 12:25:35 PM CDT

new nika maps

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/upl...

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/upl...

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/upl...

---

by: DemFromCT @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 12:40:35 PM CDT

Croatia reports first H1N1 case

Croatia reports first H1N1 case

ZAGREB (Reuters) - Croatia identified its first case of the H1N1 flu virus in a patient who flew in from Australia this week, Health Minister Darko Milinovic said on Friday.

"The virus has been confirmed with four different lab tests," Milinovic told a news conference.

The Jutarnji List daily said on its website the patient was a 60-year-old Australian woman from Sydney.
snip
http://thestar.com.my/news/sto...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 13:45:48 PM CDT

UK - advice for pregnant women

"It is important that any woman who is pregnant and has the symptoms of a flu-like illness (headache, cough, sore throat and fever) should get advice from NHS Direct or their doctor as soon as possible."

(snip)

"The Department of Health has purchased Relenza (zanamivir), an inhaled antiviral drug that treats flu without reaching the developing fetus."

http://www.hpa.org.uk/web/HPAw...

---

by: Ruby Murray @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 14:18:27 PM CDT

UK - priority for vaccination

Confusion. Poultry workers. "We are the best-prepared nation in the world." Aargghh!!!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/the...

Gosh, things have really been moving quickly in the UK in the past 48 hours!

---

by: Ruby Murray @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 14:22:37 PM CDT

European A/H1N1 flu infections exceed 10,000

 European A/H1N1 flu infections exceed 10,000
www.chinaview.cn 2009-07-04 02:27:49  

   STOCKHOLM, July 3 (Xinhua) -- A European health agency said on Friday that 641 new A/H1N1 flu cases were reported in European countries within the last 24 hours.

   Of the new cases, 518 were confirmed in Britain, 20 in Spain, 7in France and Switzerland, 35 in Germany, 25 in Cyprus, six in Denmark, five each in Portugal and Romania, three in Slovenia, two each in Sweden, Luxembourg and Ireland, and one each in Austria, Portugal, the Netherlands and Poland, the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) said in its daily situation report.

   The total number of confirmed cases of the A/H1N1 flu virus in the EU (European Union) and EFTA (European Free Trade Association)countries rose to 10,094, with 776 cases in Spain and 7,447 in Britain, 318 in France and 505 in Germany, the ECDC said.
snip
http://news.xinhuanet.com/engl...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 14:35:13 PM CDT

Sixth H1N1 Death in El Paso

July 3, 2009, http://www.elpasotimes.com/new...
El Paso, Texas:  A 46-year-old woman who had swine flu has died, the sixth such case in El Paso County this year, public health officials said Thursday.  They withheld the identity of the woman, who lived on the East Side.  Officials of the city Department of Public Health said she was hospitalized with an influenza-like illness. She was thought to have underlying medical conditions that might have contributed to her death.  They would not say when she died.

As of Wednesday, the Texas Department of State Health Services had recorded 17 deaths in Texas related to swine flu.  The newly confirmed case brings the total to 18. With six deaths, El Paso County has had more than any other Texas county.
(more)

"I am opposed to any form of tyranny over the mind of man."  Thomas Jefferson

---

by: History Lover @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 15:01:16 PM CDT

So what happens next?

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worl...

Swine flu is spreading rapidly in our cities, so rampant that there is no point trying to contain it. Is now the best time to get it? Why are the young more at risk? And what impact will it have in Africa? Sarah Boseley reports.

Comment Very good article.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 15:07:22 PM CDT

Yes, a good read, thanks - and a wide range of comments as well.

I have noticed quite a change in the tenor of such reponses in the past 48 hours.

---

by: Ruby Murray @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 15:29:14 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

It partly depends on the news paper

The Daily Mail + Sun readers are largely skeptical. The Times, The Telegraph and the Gaurdian readers are more thoughtful. But the reportes and editors seem to be quite well informed.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 15:34:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

But why is Oxford predicting no mutations??

It is a good article - thanks, Bird! But I was concerned about this piece:

Oxford says the virus is not going to get any more deadly if it resurges in the autumn, it will just affect more people. So you don't necessarily have worse or more dangerous flu if you escape it now and have it later. And you may escape it altogether.

Unless he has special powers, that seems a bit risky to predict in public!

Keep the information coming!

---

by: Cathy M @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 15:29:43 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Yeah that thought struck me, too, Cathy.

Surely the resistance to Tamiflu alone would suggest that it is adapting to a "more risky" form already (even though I was never all that convinced about its effectiveness).

---

by: Ruby Murray @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 15:34:34 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

He's hard to judge.

Nobody could doubt his credentials and he's the first guy I ever heard mention Spanish flu and 1918.

He's aware of what A(H1N1) does have and what it doesn't have. At the end of the day, predicting what swine flu will do is a guess. He's entitled (more than most) to his opinion.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 15:40:50 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Probably in context of Swine Flu Party issue

So we have a new strain of flu that on the whole is mild and does not seem to attack those who have met a part of it before. Should we not therefore go visiting those we know to be infected and allow them to cough and sneeze all over us? Now that it can't be stopped, aren't we better getting it over with straight away, before the big surge expected in the winter?
John Oxford, professor of virology at Barts and the London and scientific director of Retroscreen Virology Ltd, which is in the business of trying to create new drugs and vaccines, agrees that those who fall ill now will not get it again. "You are not going to get a double dose," he says, "but it does not follow that you should deliberately get ill now or deliberately infect someone else. You are playing with fire. You could infect someone who is diabetic and they might die.

He is reported as saying a number of things with certainty that no one can really be certain of, including no increased virulence, guaranteed immunity if you have it now, etc.  

It looks like it was all focussed on the issue of whether it would be prudent to intentionally infect yourself now.

When warning people away from fire, sometimes nuance gets a bit short.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 15:49:09 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I've seen him talk about A(H1N1)

and he seems (confidently) to think the virus hasn't got what it takes to turn into a 1918 style virus. Perhaps he's right. My instict is that he's over confident but then I'm not an expert, he is. Shrug.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 15:54:44 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Expert Definition

Someone with letters behind their name who is at least 50 miles away from home.

My guess is that many experts (possibly including him) were equally confident that H1N1 would not be the source of the next pandemic.

Sometimes experts know so much they can't remember that they don't know what they don't know.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

---

by: Into The Woods @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 16:02:21 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Agree or disagree with his theories

but he is an expert on flu.

http://www.icms.qmul.ac.uk/Pro...

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 16:22:11 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

more

http://ec.europa.eu/research/p...

---

by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 16:27:02 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Former expert

I once thought I knew what I know I don't know now.  But, what I do know is that the more I think I know, then the more I feel certain that I don't know what I thought I knew.  Now I no longer think I know, and in turn have become more certain about what little I do.

---

by: Okieman @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 16:36:20 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

grad school!

I felt that way throughout grad school but ESPECIALLY after my qualifying exams.

---

by: nika @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 17:24:40 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

grad degrees

Yes, the old joke is that when you get out of High school you pick an area to study.  Then when you start your master's specialize to learn more about a more specific field. You learn more and more about a narrower and narrower discipline.  Then when you go after a doctor's you specialize even more.  And when you know everything about nothing, you can get your doctorate.

Be Prepared

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by: DennisC @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 17:49:26 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Peanuts

Charley Brown to Lucy:  If you knew twice as much as you really know you still wouldn't know half as much as you think you know.*

I'm sure this Oxford fellow is an expert and a fine fellow.  But as with all other experts (and fine fellows) in all other fields of science, he's only right until he's wrong and that happens with startling frequency these days.  I find it more assuring when experts are less absolute in their pronouncements on matters of which certainty is rare.

* From memory of a long time ago.  Not reliable under any circumstances.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

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by: Into The Woods @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 17:49:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Not 1918 Different Than Not More Virulent

There's a heck of a range between the current 2009 H1N1 and the 1918 H1N1.  So even if it physically could not become like the 1918 virus, that just means that one particular route to virulence would be dead end.  

As the song goes:  There's more than one way home.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

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by: Into The Woods @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 16:05:33 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

perhaps like 1918

If one is to believe the "leaked" numbers from Argentina, then this could be a 2% lethal one.  
I don't think so.... but????

The problem is not knowing why the kill ratios where high in Mexico and in Argentina.  Perhaps inaccurate reporting, perhaps malnourishment, perhaps health care systems, perhaps genetics.... or perhaps, just perhaps there are some differences in some of the strains and there is still a possibility that we could have a 2% CFR as things progress.  

I worry what Africa will be like as it gets a foothold there.  The high AID rates may really elevate the CFR there.

I don't think there are real experts in this area.  After all it is a "novel" virus with which we have no experience.  

Be Prepared

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by: DennisC @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 16:39:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

I don't think there is anyone not worried about the poorer parts of the world.

And how each country reacts to the crisis of a pandemic will range from alarming to catastrophic.

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by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 17:15:55 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

argentina stated they didn't have much access to tamiflu

and they have something like a 5% fatality rate. So, back in 1918 they had no tamiflu and a 2% fatality rate.

comparable cfrs?

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Sat Jul 04, 2009 at 03:13:51 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

5% in Argentina ?

Because no one is testing counting the mild cases, I really doubt anyone can say 5% because we don't know the total numbers of infections.

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by: mollyd @ Sat Jul 04, 2009 at 05:33:29 AM CDT

[ Parent ]

Dealing in Security - understanding vital services and how they keep you safe

http://www.scribd.com/doc/1635...

All about infrastructure.

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by: UK - Bird @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 15:22:42 PM CDT

Possible case of "resistant" A (H1N1) virus in India

http://www.thehindu.com/2009/0...

CHENNAI: The Indian Council of Medical Research will investigate what seems to be a case of "resistant" A (H1N1) virus in Chennai, its Director-General V. M. Katoch said. This is the first such case reported in the country.

snip...

Though he showed no symptoms, his tests kept coming back positive, Dr. Elango said.

"This is a case to be studied, definitely. The virus should not remain in his blood after the treatment. It is possible that it is a mutation of the virus. I have instructed the officials at the NIV to sequence the strain [from the samples] as soon as possible. Once we have that, we can have the alternative drugs to treat the patient," Dr. Katoch explained.

more...

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by: sors @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 16:02:33 PM CDT

Treatment Based Immunity

Even without missing a dose, I believe the virus could adapt and become resistant, couldn't it?  It happens with antibiotics quite frequently.  

The Hong Kong case (16yr old girl I think) that flew in from San Fran and was resistant evidently without (before?) treatment with tamiflu is even more concerning IMO.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

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by: Into The Woods @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 16:10:51 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

adaptation

all manner of mutations are arising at any moment. Resistance is when a strain is substantially composed of virus that has the mutation that protects against the med/condition in question.

Without the trial by fire against the med or condition the adaptive mutation will not likely become functionally or substantially "dominant".

The implication for this 16 yo female is that she caught a previously resistant strain that has disturbingly NOT been picked up by surveillance here in the US.

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by: nika @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 17:30:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

And THAT is rub

When Tamiflu's mft commented on the first announced resistant case in Denmark it indicated that resistance developed during treatment was "not unexpected".
http://www.reuters.com/article...

But this girl having it, while it apparently could be an indvidual case, is as you say, more of a concern if the virus was already resistant when it was transmitted to her.

This story about the Hong Kong case makes it more clear that she was not treated with Tamiflu.

This marks the first known case of Tamiflu resistance in a swine flu patient not treated with the drug, which has been stockpiled by governments worldwide to fight pandemic influenza. The specimen was collected from a 16-year-old girl who flew from San Francisco and was intercepted by officials at Hong Kong International Airport on June 11, according to the statement.

"Picking it up in a patient who was not treated is a cause for concern," Malik Peiris, professor of microbiology at Hong Kong University, said in an interview. "One case doesn't change the world, but if we are seeing more and more cases in patients who are not treated, then I think it would be more serious."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...

The virus was identified during the health department's routine sensitivity test of HSI virus to oseltamivir and zanamivir, the spokesman said.

Tamiflu, a tablet known generically as oseltamivir, is made by Switzerland's Roche AG and Gilead Sciences (GILD.O), while Relenza, an inhaled drug known generically as zanamivir, is made by GlaxoSmithKline (GSK.L) under licence from Australia's Biota Inc (BTA.AX).

The department said that tests showed that the strain was sensitive to zanamivir.

Resistance to Tamiflu has been previously documented in the deadly bird flu virus H5N1 and seasonal H1N1 flu.

"You can always expect a certain number of resistances," said Roche spokeswoman Claudia Schmitt. "It does not necessarily mean that the strain is resistant to Tamiflu." (Reporting by Michael Flaherty; Additional reporting by Sam Cage; Editing by Alex Richardson)

http://www.reuters.com/article...

It would be nice to know where this girl was while in the US beyond her departure point of San Fran.  Good to watch for tamiflu resistant cases where she had been in the last couple of weeks.  I'm guessing (hoping) TPTB are all over that.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 

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by: Into The Woods @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 18:03:24 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

SOP equivocation

I am sure that lawyers on all sides (esp the MFR of tamiflu and then relenza - sp) will pore over any release to be certain that no liability is implied in any conceivable manner.

I am pretty sure it has been a foregone conclusion that this sort of resistance would arise.

Buying tamiflu is great for CYA and making it look like your prepping.

$$$ spent was part of the PR calculation.

Likely it was a horse race for Roche between tamiflu sales to governmnts and the development of resistance.

Now we will hear lots about tracking down strains, judicious use of anti-virals and the use of them in conservative protocols so as to stave off resistance as much as possible.

Tamiflu blankets were nice security devices but they will be poor methods from now on.

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by: nika @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 18:11:00 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

they were not a part of US policy

they (tamiflu blankets) were overseas.

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by: DemFromCT @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 18:20:18 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

got it, thnx n/t

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by: nika @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 19:18:07 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

the Hong kong case is a worry

A third case of oseltamivir-resistant swine flu, announced today in Hong Kong, has flu experts worried that resistance to the drug is spreading. Unlike the previous two cases, the Hong Kong patient hadn't taken oseltamivir herself, which suggests she picked up a resistant strain from someone else.

http://blogs.sciencemag.org/sc...

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by: DemFromCT @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 17:51:30 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

Pandemic Flu Home Care

"Pandemic Flu Home Care: A Detailed Guide for Caring for the Ill at Home" was created for the layperson based on research and clinical practice guidelines from international and national health care organizations. Step-by step resources assist you and your family to be ready to care for the sick at home during a severe flu pandemic. Know how to use national, state and local pandemic flu plans to be prepared.  

http://www.pandemichomecare.com/

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by: DemFromCT @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 16:41:45 PM CDT

Checklist for setting up a sick room

Link to pdf file

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by: AlohaOR @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 17:47:46 PM CDT

[ Parent ]

new Okieman US maps

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/upl...

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/upl...

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by: DemFromCT @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 17:56:28 PM CDT

Egypt: 4 suspected cases of bird flu

Friday, July 3, 2009 - 20:21

Lake - Fathy Shaaban
Detained hospital fevers Damanhour 4 cases of suspected bird flu, after the emergence of the disease with similar symptoms of fever and pain in bones, severe stress and difficulty in breathing.

Said Dr. Yusri Congratulations Deputy Minister of Health that the lake cases are: Abd al-Halim Abu Shawkat (30 years), and Randa Ramadan al-Banna (18 years), of which Allam Adly (two years), Ahmad Abdul Rahim (13 years), had been detained in hospital After taking a blood sample for analysis, including central labs in Cairo.

google translated
orginal article

http://www.alyoum7.com/include...

United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...

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by: cottontop @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 19:21:50 PM CDT

New Zealand - 3 deaths linked to swine flu

Media Release
2:00pm Saturday 4 July 2009
Influenza A (H1N1) Swine Flu - Update Ninety-five
The Ministry can sadly report three deaths linked to swine flu.

The Chief Coroner has today confirmed that two people have died, with their deaths linked to swine flu. A statement from the Chief Coroner is being issued.

A 19 year old man died on Sunday 28th of June 2009 in Hamilton. It is unknown at this stage if this person had underlying medical conditions.

A 42 year-old man died on Thursday 2 July 2009 in Christchurch, with underlying medical conditions. The Coroner considers it is strongly probable that the H1N1 virus (swine flu) was a major factor in the deaths of both men.

In the third case, Capital and Coast District Health Board has advised that a young girl, with underlying medical conditions, died this morning in Wellington Hospital. She had earlier tested positive to swine flu.

more at http://www.moh.govt.nz/moh.nsf...

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

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by: AnnieB @ Fri Jul 03, 2009 at 22:25:03 PM CDT

Please post new news stories to...

News Reports for July 4, 2009

Thank you!

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by: AlohaOR @ Sat Jul 04, 2009 at 00:22:35 AM CDT