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Welcome to the conversation Forum of Flu Wiki

This is an international website intended to remain accessible to as many people as possible. The opinions expressed here are those of the individual posters who remain solely responsible for the content of their messages.
The use of good judgement during the discussion of controversial issues would be greatly appreciated.

Community Open Thread July 25 to Aug 11 2009

by: Bronco Bill

Sat Jul 25, 2009 at 18:53:13 PM EDT

Welcome, new posters! Lurkers are always welcome to register and join in the discussions.
Not sure where to post?  Want to communicate with the Mods?  Need some help?  Post on this thread.  
Bronco Bill :: Community Open Thread July 25 to Aug 11 2009
The prior Community Open Thread is here.
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I didn't post this as news, but I'm curious...
Has anyone heard of this guy, who's apparently denying the existence of the flu?


which seems like a rather extreme blogger, we have this snip:

As author F. William Engdahl notes, even though the H1N1 virus has killed a relatively small number of people and no "government or private agency in the world has yet to scientifically isolate, to photograph with means of electron microscopy and to list the chemical characteristics of the 'novel H1N1 Influenza A virus' as it is now officially called," this has not stopped WHO from declaring a "Pandemic Alert" Phase 6 alarm. The hyped "pandemic" has prompted the Obama administration and Congress to approve an astounding $7.65 billion for the non-proven pandemic influenza.

Since it seems abundantly true that the flu virus has been isolated and examined repeatedly throughout the world, what would make someone make a statement like this? I didn't follow any more of the links; I have some concerns about letting my computer "wander" among the extreme websites... don't trust them not to have malware... :-}

Anyway, has anyone heard of him?

No Flu
Um.................hasn't all of the below happened?

"government or private agency in the world has yet to scientifically isolate, to photograph with means of electron microscopy and to list the chemical characteristics of the 'novel H1N1 Influenza A virus'"

I guess that while he may write, he doesn't read.  

[ Parent ]
No Flu
I don't think I did that right. Point was supposed to be that it has been

scientifically isolated...

photographed (though why that would make a difference to the guy on the steet I don't know)....

listed the characteristics of the novel H1N1 Influenza A virus.....  

[ Parent ]
Google Mr. Engdahl..
If one Googles the name William F Engdahl one discovers that he has "interesting views" on a variety of topics. I think his opinion on Flu may be safely discarded.

Short story
Came across this short story written on another site. It is actually a survival site so they look at all kinds of disasters. Thought it interesting and it shows the need to always be prepared for whatever. Do not know if this is where it should be posted but if not mods please feel free to delete it.



Thanks baby
I read it and then clicked on the authors link: http://www.giltweasel.com/stuf...

I have read the first third of it.  So far so good.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

[ Parent ]
made the mistake
I made the mistake of reading this story LATE last night - yikes, not sure WHAT you call this genre

[ Parent ]
I read it late also
I read it late also and had a tough time falling asleep. Should have given that little bit of advice before posting. Told a friend about it that is computer challenged. She went out the next day and built up her preps in a big way.

[ Parent ]
Hi Folks,

When I click on "Get Pandemic Ready (How to Start Prepping" in the box just below "Contact" on the right side of this page, I get "no website configured at this address"

Anyone know how to access that excellent info from Idaho"



I just tried it...
And got the same result. Their server may be down...give it a couple of hours (or wait 'til tomorrow) and try again.
An alternate site is http://www.Readymoms.org

[ Parent ]
I can't get to it either, but here are some other links from Idaho E.M.
(at the bottom of the page)


Here's the link for Emergency Home Preparation.  Scroll down to "Preparing your home"


"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
Microsoft Security Updates
Microsoft has issued two "out of band" security updates today.  Evidently "out of band" means they are in advance of it's normal monthly updates. Updates include Internet Explorer and are rated as "critical" for some.

For anyone who is not automatically updating (downloading and installing) their Microsoft products, running a manual update is probably in order.

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain

Be sure to check those MS updates!!
One of the updates tries to force Internet Destroyer, er..Explorer, to upgrade to IE version 8. If you want it, go ahead and download/install it. If you don't want it, then be certain to uncheck it before starting your downloads...

[ Parent ]
What are your thoughts on pneumonia vaccine for kids aged 7 - 12?
I have  7 year old and 12 year old children. I haven't heard if anyone is recommending getting a pneumonia vaccine for kids. I believe it's recommended for older people, and I got it myself a few years ago (I'm 47).

Would it be helpful to get the kids vaccinated to protect from pneumonia , in case they get the flu and are open to secondary infection (which seems very common from what I've seen)?

won't hurt
My kids are 12 and 15. Our ped is giving them the pneumovax shot this month.  

I asked the same question a few months ago and I could not find any reasons NOT to have it.  There are always some risks associated with vaccines, but IMHO, the risk of bacterial pneumonia is greater than any potential side effects.

[ Parent ]
do you keep lists of the mexflu-deaths here ?

I think it would be important to assign the genbank sequences
to the deaths, so to get a list of some deaths and the corresponding
sequences, so we can see which substrains are possibly
more deadly than others.

I keep a list of the substrains, but from the genbank records
it's hard to figure out who died or had severe illness.

The strategy would then be to quarantine people with severe
substrains or travelors from countries where these dominate
more rigorously so to manipulate the evolution towards milder.

is it being done on other forums,blogs,webpages ?
Can we coordinate/join the efforts ?

usually age and gender and sampling date are given.
deaths are more likely to be sampled

for a list see e.g. here:


(click on "show all")

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

Flu tango
My 20-yr-old college junior daughter is set to study abroad this fall semester.  One of her majors is Spanish.  She's headed for. . .Buenos Aires on Aug 23.

She is going with Tamiflu, OTC meds, and elderberry extract, and instructions how and when to use them.  And her asthma rescue inhaler.  (Exercise induced asthma, under control.)

The Study Abroad program director at her University advised all students going overseas (9 sites around the world including Shanghai, Madrid, London, Prague, Ghana...) to see their doctors at the Student Health Center and obtain an Rx for Tamiflu to take with them.  Don't know how much compliance they will get with that suggestion, but at least it was put out there.

I am somewhat freaked out about all this, although I can see certain advantages to her being in Buenos Aires living with a host family rather than in a tiny apartment in NYC with 3 other undergrad roommates (which is where she is now).  The season will be changing to spring by late September, and the doctors and hospitals in BA have had plenty of experience with this H1N1 by now.

Well, I've done the best I can.  I guess I'll just acquire a few more gray hairs between August 23 and mid-December when she returns for a month at home in CA.  I'll arrange for her to get her vaccine(s) for swine flu with her internist while she is here.

Life goes on...

Vitamin D too?
Flutracker: I would suggest considering 1 to 2 thousand IU a day of Vitamin D plus a multivitamin for your daughter. It is unlikely to do much harm and may do some good. There are threads on Fluwiki and PFI about this and there is at least suggestive evidence that it helps immune function.  

[ Parent ]
Yes, InfoMass, thanks for your concern and that suggestion.  She already takes a multi-vitamin/mineral and I am working on convincing her that Vit. D is a good thing as well.

I am working myself and my son (age 14) up to 5,000IU daily now.  I can "control" somewhat what son at home takes, but she is an adult now and needs to decide for herself.  I'm sure many other fluwikians can relate to that.

[ Parent ]
UK BBC4 Spanish Flu: The Forgotten Fallen Wednesday August 6th 9pm

Drama illuminating one doctor's pioneering efforts to protect the people of Manchester from the 1918 Spanish influenza pandemic.
Set against the background of the Armistice in November 1918 as millions of exhausted soldiers return home from the Great War, the film tells the little-known story of Dr James Niven, Manchester's medical health officer for thirty years, and his heroic efforts to combat a second wave of fatal influenza as it spreads across the city and the UK.

oh wow, thanks. Hope I remember to watch! n/t

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

[ Parent ]
Looks like you can watch it later on BBC iPlayer in UK
Not outside of UK though.

Reviews are good:

Last night's BBC Four drama about the Spanish Flu of 1918 was subtitled The Forgotten Fallen. An apt choice of words, because that's what the victims did: fall. Healthy young people would topple over in the street, projectile vomiting. Much like any Saturday night, you might say, but this is no joking matter. The speed with which the symptoms gripped was terrifying. Of four evening bridge players, three could be dead by morning. And what a death, choking on what one doctor called "blood-tinged froth".


The programme could have had great fun with stereotypes - spluttering city fathers tucking away their pocket watches as they made off for their Cheshire villas while the corpses of factory workers piled up in the streets. That's the usual BBC approach to period dramas involving social class. Instead, we were confronted by real people who, even when they argued about how to contain the virus, did so intelligently.

Indeed, Justin Hardy's film deserves multiple awards for the avoidance of cliché. There was only one in the script: that old favourite, "You'd better come in, then," delivered by the mother of Niven's stricken assistant. No one said, "Try to get some sleep," which is quite an achievement in a story about flu.


ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain

[ Parent ]
In the US August 6 is Thursday. :-)

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
It's on the Wednesday 5th.

Thanks Jane!

[ Parent ]
Who is showing it in US? nt

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain

[ Parent ]
UK folks pay attention!
This is happening tonight.  Thanks for your heads up.

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

[ Parent ]
I watched the repeat
oh, it was very good! The issues were so pertinent it was hard to believe that it hadn't been written in response to the current situation (I think it was commissioned two years ago). Of course, the severity of the disease was of another order of magnitude from what we are experiencing now - so much so, that I am very surprised they didn't pull the broadcast for fear of panicking people!

[ Parent ]
I watched it too
I thought it was very poignant.  This was supposed to be based on the true accounts of whatshisname who killed himself afterwards, feeling he didn't do enough.  I wonder if there are written accounts somewhere?  

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

[ Parent ]
I had no idea that he'd killed himself
until I saw it on the end credits. I had heard of him, though, so presumably there's been reports of his work somewhere easily accessible...

Was just googling and found this review: http://entertainment.timesonli...

"This review is being written from a cocoon, far, far away, accessible only via a complicated series of tunnels, with the final obstruction to entry a fiendish combination of zips and Velcro. No one is welcome, and 'The Spanish Flu: The Forgotten Fallen' is to blame." :-D

[ Parent ]
The programme was partly funded by the Wellcome Trust
and there is a nice news article here: http://wellcomelibrary.blogspo...

PS - There are ways to fool the BBC iPlayer into thinking that your IP address is located in the UK. I am not recommending this as BBC programmes are paid for by British license fee payers, however I think this prog should be available to the world and an exception should be made.

[ Parent ]
Don't know if anyone has posted this or not...
Today, I caught an advertisement for The Discovery Channel. On Tuesday nights at 10pm Wiki Time, there is a new "reality show" called The Colony.


"What would you do in the wake of a global catastrophe? How would you find food? Water? Shelter?"


With no electricity from the grid, no running water and no communication with the outside world, all the volunteers have to work with are their skills and whatever tools and supplies they can scavenge from their surroundings.

I have my recorder set so I can see all the remaining episodes...a true 'doomers' delight! ;-)

I just watched " The Colony "
....you can view the first 2 episodes at the discovery channel website.  I found it really interesting...the premise states that there has been a viral outbreak that has changed the world.  (hmmmmm)  During each episode, they have experts comment on the psychological and physical effects of being thrust into this kind of survival situation.  In the first 2 episodes, the survivors find their (planned, obviously) shelter and then work on water filtration and a source for power.  (they had briefly scavaged for food on the way there) The group of survivors was hardly a cross section of society....just off the top of my head, seems like they had a doc and a trauma nurse, several types of engineers, and a hot headed but very resourceful handy-man.  

I will miss most of the episodes on tv but plan to keep up by watching online.  I'd love to hear feedback from you guys on what you think about it.  Of course we all realize it is television...so of course some things will be planted etc...the people aren't really in danger etc.  Most comments elsewhere that I have found have focused on those aspects, but I would like to hear some discussion on the psychology aspect (dealing with the new reality) and the practicality of the projects they do.  Anyone interested??

[ Parent ]
As well as The Colony...
There are several other "doomer" shows/movies coming out in the next year.
I don't see these flicks as harbingers of doom, instead as nothing more than "popcorn escapism". There may be some little lessons learned from them, but more than anything it's interesting to see how TEOTWAWKI is presented in Hollyweird these days...

[ Parent ]
RE: question
A doctor told my husband, that "all" the swine flu deaths in the US were a result of underlying health problems in these patients.  I know that is not true, but I can seem to find the place where I read that. I think it was something like 40% had no underlying health problems.  Anyone know where it that info is?  Thanks

Latest CDC stats on underlying health conditions

See page 42-43 here http://cryptome.org/h1n1/cdc-0...

Deaths Reported to CDC by States
novel 2009-H1N1 - 16 JULY 2009
• PMH data available for 175 fatal cases
• 117/175 (67%) persons with severe underlying conditions
• 151/175 (86%) persons with any underlying condition (includes obesity)

[ Parent ]
that's even more recent
than my slide.

[ Parent ]
But 27% are obese anyway
Recent data find 27% of all US adults have a body mass index over 30 (= obesity) and 1/3 of H1N1 deaths in the table above are obese. Does this mean that obesity is or is not a major risk factor? I understand that morbid obesity (BMI>40; 3% of population and 11% of deaths) is different. Also, the overlapping of (say) asthma or diabetes and obesity could be significant rather than obesity alone. A little more epidemiological clarity from the CDC would be helpful, though losing weight is a good idea in general for most US adults.  

[ Parent ]
they are sorting through it
CDC isn't all knowing, as we are well aware ;-)

Latest data I saw was that obesity is simply a marker for other illnesses that are risk factors including cardiovascular disease, so it may not be an independent variable.

[ Parent ]
Tim Uyeki from CDC at a talk in Cancun:

it's 82% underlying condition, 12% no underlying condition.

[ Parent ]
A belated thank you for the info.

[ Parent ]
off line for a week
well, off and on, as i don't know what wifi we'll have up in Maine.

bronco bill and pogge and the newshounds and carol and AlohaOR are all around, as are all of our rich community. Apologies if you have questions I don't get to right away.

have a great vacation, Dem! n/t

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

[ Parent ]
ON LINE! (most of the time)
No real vacation at a time like this!

(The world needs you. Take a real vacation after the pandemic.)  

[ Parent ]
I'll try to help with some questions...
But don't ask me anything medical  ;-)

"Damn it Jim. I'm a technician, not a doctor!"

Dem---have a great vacation. We'll keep the light on for ya!

[ Parent ]
Did anyone see the Torchwood "Children of Earth" miniseries?

I just watched it, yeterday, and the scenes of the children being rounded up for vaccinations sent chills down my spine.

I know that vaccinations are not part of an evil plan to turn our children over to aliens ;-), but the scared and confused children being herded up and onto buses...it just seemed a glimpse of what could be if our governments don't handle the whole quarantine/SIP/vax issues carefully.

I'd rather deal with aliens- at least then I could SEE what I'm fighting against!  

Scariest by far ...
... were the politicians!

[ Parent ]
Has the Pandemic Severity Index been changed??
I've been away from the computer for a week, and I come back to read (on a different forum) the news that the CDC has changed the Pandemic Severity Index; specifically the recommendations for school closure.  

The "old" PSI said "consider school closure up to 4 weeks" for category 2 or category 3 pandemic; and recommend school closure up to 12 weeks for cat 4 and 5 pandemic.

According to what this person said, the revised PSI only has school closures scheduled for cat 4 and 5 pandemic.

Has anyone heard or read anything about any changes to the PSI?  

It is confusing to me, because I saw just last month a memo from the Dept. of Ed to schools that specifically mentioned the possibilities of extended school closure -- so I thought it was still on the table.  Have school closures in the US been taken off the table completely, for "just" a "Cat 2/3" pandemic?

If anyone knows anything about this, I'd appreciate a link to the new information.

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.

CDC guidance on school closing
I don't think the CDC guidance on school closing has changed dramatically. The CDC web site recommendation on school closure hasn't been updated since 5/22:

"School dismissal is not advised for a suspected or confirmed case of novel influenza A (H1N1) and, in general, is not advised unless there is a magnitude of faculty or student absenteeism that interferes with the school's ability to function."

Look at page 3 of http://www.cdc.gov/media/pdf/M... there is the current recommendations by Pandemic Severity Index. Notice the word "consider". The same recommendations with the same wording existed in the pandemic planning documents from 2006-2007.

I think they anticipate a lot of school closings. They have even set up a special monitoring system for this at http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/sch...

The Department of Education has updated information at http://www.ed.gov/policy/elsec... that recognizes that school closures may be necessary.

"The Department of Health and Human Services is taking the steps necessary to secure H1N1 flu vaccine for possible use in the fall. If a vaccination program is initiated, however, the vaccine will not be available until several weeks after the school year begins."

"Therefore, it will be critical for schools to begin planning non-pharmaceutical interventions to prevent disease transmission and protect students and staff, as well as local communities, from infection.  Depending on the timing and severity of a potential fall H1N1 wave, those interventions could include:  extra measures to ensure that commonly touched surfaces are disinfected, strict enforcement of exclusion policies for students and staff with flu-like symptoms, or extended school closures."

[ Parent ]
thanks JerryH
I apprecate the links!

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.

[ Parent ]
you have to separate the PSI
and any recommendations.  The PSI is just that, an index of pandemic severity, defined by CFR.  Just like you have categories for hurricane severity.

Recommendations are a different business.  For example, with a category 4 hurricane, you may evacuate some communities or at risk populations, but there is no hard-and-fast rule that says you HAVE to evacuate, because the hurricane categories are just one measure.  Other things will combine together to affect a community, eg whether it is low-lying, whether there are specific vulnerable populations, how big is the area that is expected to be affected, how well they can cope, etc.

In the same way, even though the first time the PSI was used was in the CMG document for community mitigation, and recommendations on school closure were made initially tied to the PSI, these were just recommendations, interim ones at that.  With the current pandemic, we have seen how they've had to change recommendations based on the situation, the feedback from communities (whether you agree or not) etc.  But like the hurricane warnings, the PSI will remain the PSI, one index of severity, one item among many, that they have to take into consideration for school closure decisions.  

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

[ Parent ]
Dem, I'm jealous. You are Down East and I am not!
Please keep the lobster population down until DW and I can get there in late September!  Have a great time..

Experience has taught me that there are few conspiracies, but much incompetence

I promise you
I am doing my best.

[ Parent ]
Naughty joke about lobsters
Two prisoners are joined in a cell by a third. One of the prisoners is scratching his groin.

Second prinson asks the newcomer "Tell us, is it lobsters or crabs that walk sideways?"

"Crabs." replies the bemused man.

"Ha" says the enquiring prisoner to his itchy friend, "I told you, you had lobsters."

[ Parent ]
I've tried twice to inform the person doing the U.S. cases map
of the new Montana number of cases as 133 not 94. But seems I'm not connecting. Who do I contact or where do I suggest the new number?

Here's the link. Click on the hyperlink: Up-to-date statistics


The maps are generally created by a FluWiki member. I believe the information is pulled directly from the CDC website...

[ Parent ]
But you can get most recent numbers from state websites
Well, SOME state websites, anyway. Wish I could ship you all the bookmarks for them. Let me know.  

[ Parent ]
Virginia numbers
were last updated July 10th. 8^(

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

[ Parent ]
That was about when VDH decided to stop reporting cases, since the thinking was that ALL reported flu cases were/are H1N1

[ Parent ]
Hello phytosleuth
I'm the one who created the U.S. case map.  It was based upon July 24, 2009 CDC data.  Unfortunately, CDC has ceased collecting case data by state.  

I haven't decided whether to continue trying to map this pandemic.  What data do I use?  Is the data available  reliable, especially data from other countries for the world map?  Does the data available give the wrong impression concerning how widespread the disease has become if they only test severe cases?  

Sometimes incomplete or false data is as bad as no data at all.  I'm not happy with our governments decision concerning data collection and dissemination.

[ Parent ]
Here's a suggestion
It's up to you. You are the one doing the work, after all. It would either help to put a note on that particular map in clear and BIG letters that it is a static map from CDC from July 24, 2009 and that the CDC is no longer counting cases.

Or...you could add a new map to this showing updated numbers of the states that are STILL counting. Maybe have a legend with color or maybe a date under the number showing WHEN that number was last documented.

For example, Pennsylvania says August 5: 2005 cases (probable and confirmed)


Wisconsin, July 29: 6280


Wyoming: 138 lab-confirmed cases (8/5/2009)


Montana: July 31, 2009: 133 cases

Not all states DID post case numbers on their public health department sites, to begin with. Some may have stopped since the CDC stopped. But some seem to be continuing the practice, nonetheless.

I'd be happy to send you my links and check all the states if you'd like to use this information. Let me know.

Thanks for all your work, no matter what you decide. Best wishes!

[ Parent ]
If you could...
start a diary similar to this one maintained by AlohaOR:
with a table showing the number of cases per state.  I can then take that table and create a map based upon the data.  It is about time to create another heat map for AlohaOR's data of deaths per million.  Posting maps for cases, deaths and deaths/million gives folks a snap shot of where things stand at the time of the maps.

I'll try to place some text in the map which better informs the reader concerning the time frame of the data and the static nature of the map.  I have dates on the maps up right now, but I reckon I can explain the nature of the maps better.

[ Parent ]
Okay, let me work on this
It might take me a bit to get this thing formatted the way the diary wants it. I'll work on it. I'll include sources of data somewhere on the diary too.  

[ Parent ]
I translated this article and I have no idea what they are talking about. Does anybody know what disease they are talking about? Or virus? I don't know if they are talking about H1N1 or not. What is hoarse-lung?

It was male that the two Chinese expire

By editorial staff of 04/08/2009 @ 01:08

A second man died as a result of the hoarse-lungs inflammation in a region was isolated in China west sea where thousands of people dikarantina. The casualties were acknowledged as casualties's first neighbour by the official Chinese media, the breeder was 32 years old in Ziketan, close to Xinghai, Propinsi Qinghai.

The region was often occupied by Tibetans. Inflammation of the lungs that attacked the lungs could spread from humankind to humankind or from the animal to humankind. The sign initially was feverish, had a headache and breathless. The local official in China west sea said to the BBC his situation was known and schools there were opened as usual. However phak had the authority to close Ziketan that was occupied by 1,000 residents. Not a single was permitted to leave the region, said an official.

The authorised side tried to trace the person that contact in a second manner the man who died. The local health body also warned who that the cough or the fever that visited to the city since the middle of July must get the maintenance. /the BBC  

United we stand: Divided we fall

Sounds like the pneumonic plague story
[ Parent ]
That's what it is n/t

[ Parent ]
The BBC world service is often the source for information
It looks like this story about the plague as ChrisC point out.


This is the updated version with a third victim.


[ Parent ]
Thanks for all your help. I'll go ahead
and put it in the news diary. Guess I need to do some reading up on this plauge.  

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
Could we get the
Not flu but close diary moved to the home page?  

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

How's about if I just start a new one? n/t

[ Parent ]
Done and promoted n/t

[ Parent ]
Thanks Bronco Bill n/t

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

[ Parent ]
Also for UK folks
Has anybody tried the Swine flu website yet, where supposedly they take you through an algorithm of symptoms to determine whether you need tamiflu?  If you have tried something like that, even just to test it, please post your experience and opinions, Thanks!

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

important correction
please note correction for important information on clinical trials with adjuvanted vaccines on children http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

found this important slide
from one of the ACIP meeting presentations.  http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/re...  Don't know where to put it just yet, so I'll put it up here.  Feel free to post it somewhere else.

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

1957 vax

2009 had been compared with 1957 recently

is there any data on the effectiveness of the 1957 pandemic
vaccinations ?
I couldn't find it.

30M(=17%) had been vaccinated in 1957 in USA  (single dose ?)
but most doses came late for the first wave which peaked in week 42.
However there was a 2nd wave in March.

They should have examined how well the vaccine and natural
infection in wave 1 did protect for wave 2 ?!?!

CDC estimated that 45M had become infected in Oct and Nov 1957 (4)
[including asymptomatic case ? , how many in 2nd wave Feb.1958,
how many in both waves]

peak was in week 42
peak in deaths in week 45.5

highest attack rates in school children

Oct57-Mar58 , 892000 death certificates (830000 expected)

early in Tangipahoa parish , pop=60000 :
CAR in schools = 40%-60%
50% of those reporting no ILI still had Antibodies (3)
2 deaths

[3]   Carey Dunn Robinson  JAMA 1958
[4] $46 , Trotter,Dunn,Drachman  AmJHyg  1959

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

1 million evacuated as typhoon hits China
By GILLIAN WONG, Associated Press Writer Gillian Wong, Associated Press Writer - 4 mins ago

BEIJING - A typhoon slammed into China's eastern coast Sunday, forcing the evacuation of nearly a million people after earlier lashing Taiwan with torrential rains that caused the island's worst flooding in 50 years and left dozens missing and feared dead.

Typhoon Morakot made landfall in Fujian province, carrying heavy rains and winds of 74 miles (119 kilometers) per hour, the China Meteorological Administration said. One death was reported Sunday.

Taiwan, meanwhile, was recovering after the storm dumped more than 80 inches (200 centimeters) of rain on some southern counties on Friday and Saturday, the worst flooding to hit the area in half a century, the Central Weather Bureau reported.

Taiwan's Disaster Relief Center said a woman was killed when her vehicle plunged into a ditch in Kaohsiung county in heavy rain Friday, and two men drowned in Pingtung and Tainan. It said 31 were missing and feared dead.

Nearly 1 million people were evacuated from China's eastern coastal provinces by early Sunday - more than 490,000 people in Zhejiang and 480,000 in neighboring Fujian. Authorities in Fujian called 48,000 boats back to harbor.

Thirty-nine flights from Wenzhou city in Zhejiang were canceled Sunday, the official Xinhua News Agency said.

Village officials in Zhejiang rode bicycles to distribute drinking water and instant noodles to residents stranded by deep floods, Xinhua said.

Heavy rains before the typhoon made landfall destroyed five houses in the province, burying four adults and a 4-year-old boy in debris, Xinhua said. The child died after emergency treatment failed, it said.

People caught in the storm stumbled with flashlights as darkness enveloped the town of Beibi in Fujian, uprooting trees and inundating farmlands, Xinhua said. Farmers tried to catch fish that were swept off fish farms by rising waves.

Rescuers attempted to reach eight sailors on a cargo ship stranded after strong winds blew it onto a reef off Fujian, Xinhua reported.

Morakot, which means "emerald" in Thai, was expected to travel north at about six miles (10 kilometers) per hour and weaken in strength, the meteorological administration said. It said the storm would also bring strong winds and heavy rains to nearby areas, including Shanghai.

Morakot hit Taiwan late Friday and crossed the island Saturday. Taiwan's Disaster Relief Center reported Sunday that flash floods washed away a home in southern Kaohsiung, leaving 16 people missing. Three were swept away in southeastern Taitung county, including two policemen helping to evacuate villagers.

Twelve others were missing, including three fishermen from a capsized boat and three others whose cars fell into a rain-swollen river, it said.

In southern Pingtung county, 4,000 people were stranded in inundated villages waiting for police boats to rescue them, news media reported.

In Taitung county, a six-story hotel collapsed and plunged into a river after floodwaters eroded its base, but all 300 people inside were evacuated and uninjured, officials said.

Morakot was the first typhoon to hit Taiwan this year. Typhoons are common between July and September, often causing injuries and deaths in mountainous regions prone to landslides and flash floods.

Earlier, in the northern Philippines, the typhoon and lingering monsoon rains left 21 people dead and seven others missing in landslides and floodwaters, including three European tourists who were swept away Thursday, the National Disaster Coordinating Council said Sunday.

The bodies of the Belgian and two French citizens were found Friday, the council said.

Meanwhile, Xinhua said three fishermen died and 26 others were missing from Tropical Storm Goni, which hit Guangdong on Wednesday but had weakened to a tropical depression by Sunday. Helicopters and ships were searching for the missing crew.


United we stand: Divided we fall

Yeah - I saw that...
... and a 7 point earthquake in Japan (?) - how many displace people are going to be even more susceptible to flu?? :-{

[ Parent ]
Here's an Idea for schools...
What if they made up The Flu Game? Spray all the doorhandles, light switches, etc. with a light oil dyed red. Then when kids touched these surfaces and then touched their faces, they would have red spots -- and the game would be to wash  the oil off their hands before they touched anything else! It might help the younger kids to really understand how fast and far germs travel... if it's not feasible in a whole school, what about one day's worth in a classroom? Then all the kids could help to wash it all off, again showing how much washing it takes to sanitize something!
Just something that occurred to me before I'd had enough coffee this morning... :-}

I like this idea a lot!
Since we're on a farm, I'm forever reminding the kids to wash up after chores, playing with critters, etc. I can see spraying a light coat of something colored in the barn so that they could see how they carry germs from the animals to the house.

[ Parent ]
The weekly CDC graph in the News diary makes it seem as if flu cases are decreasing,
but is that just because they stopped testing and counting?  If so, I think there should be a line on the graph or a note saying when the data-collection standard changed.  It gives a false impression, doesn't it?

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

Weekly flu graph
is the standard CDC weekly flu surveillance for all types of influenza.  It actually started to go down a bit before the CDC changed its H1N1 reporting rules.  

The black line is the % of samples that test positive.  You can see that the overall number of diagnosed cases and the % of samples that tested positive started to drop at about the same time.  

I suspect the drop has a lot to do with the summer -- more sunshine, more people outside, and most schools out.  I expect that we'll see it turn around within about 4 weeks (a week or so after most children return to the classroom).

[ Parent ]
I'm not totally sure which charts you all are referring to
but at this point, the best chart to track is not the % sample testing positive chart, but the ILI regional surveillance charts.  http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/ Scroll down to outpatient illness surveillance.

The only problem is, the national chart is not as useful as the regional ones, cos outbreaks in the US tend to be asynchronous, so the trends will get 'averaged out'.  For example, this one for NY and NJ is very informative about what's going on.  http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/...

Here are the regions, click on them to see each chart..  http://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/...

Would it be worth it to have a separate diary dedicated to charts?  So then we can accomodate more charts, and have the same ones being constantly updated, without them occupying too much space on top of the news diary?  I don't have an opinion one way or the other how they should be done, and I'm appreciative of those of you who put so much effort into this.  Just trying to see what is the best way of displaying information that is most useful and representative of the situation, and I just don't think the viral sampling chart is very useful, at all, for that purpose.

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

[ Parent ]
Tech Question
I am having a problem with FW.  My browser will randomly switch to Google images while I am trying to read/post on FW.

It has increased in frequency to the point that it is almost impossible to get through a diary without cursing and throwing things. ;-)

It only does it on FW...no other sites.

Does anyone have any idea on what might cause this, or how to fix it?  I'm trying not to involve my IT hubby...he will take it away and decide it needs 57 bells and whistles and it will be weeks before I get it back...

Beyond my expertise from your description
Back up your data.  It could be a precursor to a dead computer, or a virus (non influenza).  I would involve your hubby.  I have not had any problem with FW.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

[ Parent ]
It's not anything related to the user's hardware
I'm almost 100% convinced that it's something that Google is dropping onto the hard drive when accessing their search engine. Unfortunately, I haven't been able to find any software that can find malware from Google.

[ Parent ]
Where do Google images come from,
do you have an icon or something that you can delete?  I know very little and ask for help a lot, but some things are easy to fix, if we're lucky.   Good luck.  Backing up is a good idea.  Don't forget to copy your bookmarks.

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
I've been having exactly the same problem, except that instead of Google images, I get bounced to a Dell/Google search page.
I'm trying to find some kind of spyware/malware/adware on my laptop, but so far, with 12 different anti-spyware applications, there's nothing on my computer!
I'm thinking that Google is taking way too many liberties with the Internet. I don't have that da**ed Google Toolbar installed (I hate their intrusiveness) and think that by just using Google, something is being dropped onto my drive!  It's taken me 7 back spaces to stay on this page so far!!!
Pogge---have you noticed anything on the servers that might be out of the ordinary?

[ Parent ]
I can't answer that
Remember, the forum is on a hosted service. I have no access to the server, unlike with the wiki.

[ Parent ]
There's a class of malware called "Browser hijackers" - could be that.

Not likely that it's Google itself - true they track your every move, search and thought, but forcefully moving you around the web would get them in a heap of trouble real quick.

You may have to involve your hubby because these buggers get into some obscure areas of the browser settings and you never know if they'd drop a keystroke logger of some other data stealing app.

(Sorry for the scare tactic, but I work in security and it comes with the career. ;P )

[ Parent ]
Try following these instructions:
This appears on the Dell/Google search page that I get redirected to. I've run CCleaner, SpyBot, Ewido, Adaware, and several others...
So far, rebuilding my registry seems to have slowed down the redirects...

This page is meant to provide you with helpful related content, including web search results and paid advertisements, based on the meaning of the web address/keyword query that you typed. This program can be uninstalled from the Control Panel "Add/Remove Programs" in Windows XP or "Control Panel > Program > Programs and Features" in Windows Vista. Look for the application named "Browser Address Error Redirector". Older versions may be called "GoogleAFE" or "URL Assistant".

Interesting that one of the programs recommended to be removed is "GoogleAFE"...

[ Parent ]
Yea - that's useful but...
It still wouldn't explain the random redirects... unless the person was some form of spontaneous turrets-style typist.  ;)
That app was just Google's way of making money off your typo's.

There is plenty of malware meant to help drive traffic to temporary sites to either infect your PC or to simple make advertising money.  Often, the site gets taken down long before the malware disappears - so you end up going into some weird form of no man's land. And if you have that GoogleAFE or whatever loaded - it masks the typical MS "Page not found" with, "Hey, since you're a lousy typist, help us pay our ridiculous electric bill!"

[ Parent ]
Yea - that's useful too...but
What would then explain the fact that not only am I already logged ON to FW, but NOT typing ANYTHING. Simply reading a diary or comment, or clicking on Post a Comment, and then Bang! page changes to Google's search page, which then states that Google could not find the page I requested?
This problem only occurs on ONE computer, out of the 4 that I own. This problem only occurs when I'm viewing FluWiki Forum pages---no other website has this issue, so that tells me that there is something in the cache or VRAM on my laptop that is "stuck" on stupid, er, I mean Google.
I haven't requested anything...I'm simply READING an already-displayed and cached web page.
Believe me...I've been doing this long enough to know the difference between malware and bad typing...and that's why I'm so thankful that there's a Preview button!! ;-)  

[ Parent ]
Heh - not saying YOU are a bad typist.
I'm saying malware can go to a site that no longer exists and it reaches a trap for bad typists.
The malware is just trying to go to a home that no longer exists... and where Google was not afraid to take over.

But in case I'm wrong (and that happens often enough) have you checked your browser helper objects? - maybe there's one in there that either broken or nefarious.

[ Parent ]
You're infected
This is not anything from Google or Dell. It is known as the "google redirect virus". It changes your browser search settings to go to fake Google pages that earn the criminals money for advertisements.

It also has other bad effects. There are often infections with multiple other viruses and trojans along with this one. It can give a remote user control over your computer, steal your usernames and passwords for online banking sites, and make your computer participate in distributed attacks such as the recent ones against twitter and facebook.

It's hard to clean up. Do a search for "google redirect virus" for some tips. One tool that is reported to usually be effective is ComboFix http://www.bleepingcomputer.co...

[ Parent ]
Does it infect Macs? n/t

[ Parent ]
Okay. Again...
I'm sitting at my computer. I'm reading a FluWiki Forum diary. At that point, the computer just redirects. I'm not using any search engines, and everything that I've been reading about "google redirect virus" says that the virus redirects "From every search engine you use".
I've checked Symantec, F-Prot, Trend Micro, and McAfee sites, and all say exactly the same thing. I've checked tech forums, and all posts say exactly the same thing: Nearly all search engines experience redirects due to 'google redirect virus'. Nothing, not one thing, about redirects to maliscious sites from other websites...  

[ Parent ]
GoogleAFE is a program installed by Dell on some of their systems.

Description of GoogleAFE from http://www.fbmsoftware.com/spy...
GoogleAFE, from Google, is an application used by Dell products to redirect errors on the browser to a specific page.

If your browser is detecting an error on the page (and there are errors on the wiki's pages), it will redirect. Remove this browser helper object. The easiest way to do that, if there isn't a simple uninstall procedure, is to use a program called HijackThis.

[ Parent ]
Possible Malware
Have you tried Stopzilla?  I have MacAfee which apparently won't stop anything.  We had constant problems and the computer slowed down and seemed to be running something we couldn't find.  MacAfee said there was nothing although I ran a full scan every day.  The computer kept crashing every day. Stopzilla found 12 Trojans and about 100 different kinds of cookies.  Now I run it every day and it finds about 50-100 new cookies every day. Pretty much every web site seems to have cookies on it now, and not the useful kind, they are advertising cookies. A few companies in particular seem to have a cookie of some kind almost everywhere you click.

I don't work for/own Stopzilla, it just helped a lot.

US - National Biodefense Science Board
public teleconference on Friday August 14th.  http://www.hhs.gov/aspr/confer...

More details with agenda in this diary http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


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