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Guillain-Barre Syndrome after Influenza Vaccination - More Lessons from 1976

by: SusanC

Mon Jul 27, 2009 at 19:45:18 PM EDT


A follow-up to Swine Flu 1976 - Old Vaccines, New Lessons?
SusanC :: Guillain-Barre Syndrome after Influenza Vaccination - More Lessons from 1976
The 1976 vaccine was correlated with an increased incidence of GBS, which, according to a recent study described earlier, may be due to molecular mimicry, between the HA molecule and human gangliosides, proteins that permeate our nervous system.

Ideally one would want to repeat the study and confirm the findings, at least, but we are in a pandemic, and tptb are in a rush to provide vaccines for millions of people.  In the absence of further data, is there anything we can learn, even tentatively?

If HA is indeed a biological mimic, it could account for the very small but increased incidence of GBS after flu vaccines in general, and the 1976 one in particular.  The effect of biological mimicry is, by definition, dependent on how closely the molecules are similar.  To the extent that different HAs from different flu viruses have slight differences in conformation, they would probably have varying degrees of mimicry, such that vaccines made from these HAs may therefore have varying ability to induce GBS.  Which is compatible with the varying incidence of GBS reported after seasonal flu vaccinations in different years.  (see Haber 2004, Guillain-BarrĂ© Syndrome Following Influenza Vaccination)

As an extension of that, can we also say that any HA that is similar to 1976 (like the current H1N1) may be more likely to induce GBS?  We can't answer that question, because we don't know what other components are/were important in the pathogenesis of GBS in 1976.  

For example, it was widely believed that the 1976 vaccine had a particularly high endotoxin content, a bacterial by-product (or impurity) of the vaccine manufacturing process, which may have contributed to the higher GBS rate.  

One very interesting study Geier 2003, Influenza vaccination and Guillain Barre syndrome had the following findings:

  1. increased risk of acute GBS and severe GBS after influenza vaccination as compared to adult tetanus-diphtheria (Td) vaccine - which was chosen as control since an IOM review concluded "the evidence favored a causal relationship" between GBS and Td vaccination.

  2. Influenza vaccines contained from a 125- to a 1250-fold increase in endotoxin concentrations in comparison to an adult Td vaccine control

  3. Endotoxin concentrations varied up to 10-fold among different lots and manufacturers of influenza vaccines, as shown in the chart

  4. There was statistically significant variation in the incidence of reported GBS after vaccination from vaccines from the different manufacturers.  Unfortunately, the identity of specific manufacturers for this test could not be revealed, as the CDC deemed this information to be 'proprietary and confidential' ;-( , hence we cannot determine from the data whether those vaccines with higher endotoxin content were associated with higher GBS report rates.  

Nevertheless, the authors still concluded that

The biologic mechanism for GBS following influenza vaccine may involve the synergistic effects of endotoxin and vaccine-induced autoimmunity.

Here, the question gets interesting, because different kinds of bacterial endotoxins, eg from E. coli, have been used as vaccine adjuvants.  The intranasal flu vaccine that caused a spate of Bell's palsy cases leading to its withdrawal, was adjuvanted with endotoxin from E. coli.  The novel adjuvant AS04, made by GSK and used in Hepatitis B (Fendrix) and HPV (Cervarix) vaccines in Europe, also contains MPL, which, according to this paper with a rather triumphant title, Vaccine adjuvants: the dream becomes real, "comes from the cell wall LPS (=lipopolysaccharide) of Gram-negative Salmonella minnesota R595".

In other words, if endotoxin was a significant factor in vaccine-induced GBS in 1976, the whole episode may have been a demonstration of the effect of a naturally-occuring adjuvant on induction of autoimmunity.

Here's my question.  And please don't fault me for asking 'rhetorical' questions - I'm asking them because they are real, I don't know the answer, but the answer may be relevant to our assessment of the safety of using novel adjuvants in flu vaccines in the current pandemic.

If endotoxin was acting as an adjuvant and was partly responsible for the increased incidence of GBS in 1976, would much more powerful vaccine adjuvants deliberately formulated to enhance the immune response to the HA (and to a lesser degree NA), aka MF59 or AS03, also enhance the biological mimicry to such a degree that the risk of GBS would again be dramatically increased?  Since we (or at least I) don't know the relative potency of the endotoxin content of the 1976 vaccine possibly acting as adjuvant, as compared to MF59 or AS03, I don't believe we can give even a rough assessment, of the potential for GBS, before large scale vaccination happens, right?

Does that scare you?  It does me.  Not personally, but on a population level, the effect could be catastrophic.

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btw, any correlation between
endotoxin concentration and rate of GBS being reported, is important for a specific and important reason - it can potentially demonstrate a dose-response relationship, which according to this (and other) product liability consultancy, is a fundamental requirement for making liability exposure assessment.  

Which is a good example of the kind of issues that increasingly underlie major areas of scientific research...


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


in other words
a dose-response relationship is a necessary (but not sufficient) component of 'proof' of causation, for positive as well as adverse effects.  

Which reminds me, in the published literature of vaccine adjuvants, it's very rare to come across dose-ranging studies to determine the optimal dose of the adjuvant for a formulation.  You see lots of dose-ranging for the antigen, but not for the adjuvant.

In fact, the issue of whether dose-ranging studies on the adjuvant should be required for licensure of adjuvanted vaccines, was raised several times in the FDA/NIAID meeting on adjuvants in Dec 08.  Reading between the lines, I would speculate that the FDA is/was moving towards that requirement, and industry did not like it at all, for reasons that are IMO entirely understandable if not acceptable from the public safety standpoint!!


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
as illustration, take the GSK vaccine
The results of a number of clinical trials were reported in the EMEA assessment report.  One of the first things you do, in to do a dose-response for the antigen (HA) dose, to determine how much HA is required.  So one of the trials (#007) had subjects tested in 8 different groups, for 3.8, 7.5, 15, and 30ug, respectively, 4 groups each for unadjuvanted and adjuvanted vaccine, but the amount of adjuvant in each of the adjuvanted groups tested, was the same.

In the section on adverse events (page 26), it says

The incidence of symptoms, and in particular local symptoms, was higher in the groups vaccinated with adjuvanted formulations.

OK, that's easy to understand.  But here's what it says next (emphasis mine):

No significant effect of the antigen dose or consistent trend by dose was observed on the overall incidence of symptoms among the adjuvanted vaccines.

What does that mean?  It means that among the adjuvanted groups, it didn't matter whether they received 3.8ug or 30ug and everything in between, the incidence of AEs was the same.

Now, if you stop and think about this for a minute, what does that tell you?  It tells me that it wasn't the antigen that was causing the adverse events (since there is no dose-response relationship between AEs and the dose of antigen).  Since the adjuvanted group had higher AEs than unadjuvanted, one would intuit that the adjuvant was probably the major cause of the AEs.

But, because they didn't do any dose variation on the adjuvant (it was a fixed dose), this dose not constitute a 'proof' that the AEs were primarily due to the adjuvant.  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Question: what is a naturally-occuring adjuvant?
In other words, if endotoxin was a significant factor in vaccine-induced GBS in 1976, the whole episode may have been a demonstration of the effect of a naturally-occuring adjuvant on induction of autoimmunity.

Are you saying that the endotoxin just happened, instead of being introduced deliberately?  

If the former, was it naturally occuring in the nasal passages of the subjects or as a contaminant in the vaccine?    

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


yes, adjuvants can be naturally occurring
The endotoxin was in the vaccine.

 


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
something else that's interesting
The authors of the Geier paper sought to give some explanation/hypothesis from their findings.  

The presence of endotoxin in influenza vaccines is a serious cause for concern because it has been shown to elevate antibody production to unrelated antigens. The injection of only microgram quantities of endotoxin together with a group of antigens into various species has been shown to result in a pronounced increase in antibody titer. In addition, it has been shown that endotoxin may increase the permeability of the blood-brain barrier to allow circulating colloids normally excluded from the brain to enter it [25]. The presence of endotoxin in influenza vaccine, because of its ability to increase the permeability of the blood-brain barrier, may allow proteins that may have deleterious neurogenic properties to enter into the nervous system and, because of its activity in elevating antibody production, may contribute to the autoimmune conditions observed in GBS. Therefore, the synergistic effects of endotoxin and vaccineinduced autoimmunity may contribute to the GBS observed in this study following influenza vaccination.

In other words, the authors suggested a possible mechanism for GBS that involves damage to the blood-brain barrier (or BBB) that allows proteins that normally do not have access to the brain, to enter and interact with nerve tissue.  What might those proteins be?  One possible candidate IMO could be the anti-ganglioside antibodies that resulted from HA mimicry, as discussed here.  

The author's hypothesis of endotoxin effect on the BBB, is just a hypothesis.  For one thing, we do not know how much endotoxin is needed to cause changes in permeability of the BBB, since a vaccine is given locally in the muscle in much smaller doses (I think) than the IV doses used in the study they cited (#25) (which btw is fascinating, scary, and available for free here: Studies on the Blood Brain Barrier I. Effects Produced by a Single Injection of Gram-Negative Endotoxin on the Permeability of the Cerebral Vessels)

The flip side of THAT coin is that one important component of both MF59 and AS03, is Tween 80 (or polysorbate 80) which is used as an emulsifier for these oil-in-water emulsions.  Now, polysorbate 80 is, coincidentally or not, being actively studies as a pharmaceutical component to breach the BBB to deliver drugs to the brain!!  The title of this paper says it all: Direct Evidence That Polysorbate-80-Coated Poly(Butylcyanoacrylate) Nanoparticles Deliver Drugs to the CNS via Specific Mechanisms Requiring Prior Binding of Drug to the Nanoparticles

Is that coincidental?  That MF59 and AS03 are formulated with an emulsifier that has the similar properties of breaching the BBB, as endotoxin for which this was postulated as a possible mechanism for neurological damage?

Again, I don't know the answer, but it's too spooky for words!


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


btw as far as I understand
the endotoxin content of vaccines in general has been falling over the years, as quality control improves in vaccine production.  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
So "naturally occuring" endotoxin happened in the vaccine,
not in the patient's body.  And it was a contaminant, which they are learning to avoid producing.  That's good, as far as it goes.  :-/  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
not necessarily good
because the 'adjuvant effect' is part and parcel of an effective immune response.  

Here's a very short version of basic immunology, that I intend to write in a slightly more comprehensive way shortly - the 2 signal paradigm for immunity.

The current understanding is that, in general, just having an antigen (defined, in layman terms, as the part of whatever you are formulating, that is recognized by the immune system for the purpose of triggering a response) is not enough to stimulate an immune response.  The antigen is Signal 1, which is recognized by immune cells.  But you also need Signal 2, which is a variety of co-stimulatory signals that triggers the actual response to the antigen.

Without making it more complicated (saving it for another day), you can think of it this way.  Since, by definition, your body is full of your own molecules or self-antigens, if your immune system reacts to EVERYTHING it recognizes, you'd be having autoimmune problems all the time!!  In reality, this doesn't happen.  Why?  Because in the 'steady state' (aka 'business-as-usual') there are no co-stimulatory signals (or Signal 2).  

But if, for instance, there is a foreign antigen AND it is causing inflammation, then the inflammation would cause chain reactions that would provide Signal 2.  This Signal 2, that switches on the immune response to an antigen that is already recognized by the immune system, and the effect it has, is also called the 'adjuvant effect' or sometimes called the 'bystander effect', since it's a bit like something happening on the side but still having an effect on the main 'action'.

In fact, in the field of vaccines, it's a bit of paradox.  In the old days when vaccines were less pure, more crude, they generated more effective (=protective) immune responses, but also caused a lot of adverse reactions.  Over time, as mortality from infectious diseases fell, the public's acceptance of vaccine reaction also fell.  So vaccine companies strived to make purer and purer vaccines.  The problem is, often times (but not necessarily always) the purer the antigen, the weaker the vaccine, so they ended up having to figure out how to increase the immunogenicity, by adding adjuvants!!

An example of a naturally-occurring adjuvant, is the whole virus vaccine.  In theory, the HA is the main antigen that our body needs for protective immunity, but the presence of the rest of the (killed) virus provides a larger repertoire of immune signals to the body, thus triggering an effective immune response.  In other words, the parts of the virus that we normally would not consider as being necessarily for antigenic protection, are actually useful for helping to induce a good response!

However, the same rules still apply - if adjuvants can trigger strong immune responses, they can also, potentially, trigger adverse reactions.  Which is why the whole virus vaccine is both more immunogenic and reactogenic (sound familiar??)  Finding the balance between sufficient immunogenicity and minimal reactogenicity, is the biggest task of vaccinologists!


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Thank you for the explanation, Susan!
When the injection site is sore and inflamed, that's a good thing, then?  Local inflammation giving signal 2?  Or does a useful inflammation have to be in the whole body?  Wonder what caused the soreness, the antigen or an adjuvant?  (The answers may be in your next diary, though; I can wait.)

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
the soreness is a sign of inflammation
It is not a problem for most people, but for a small subset of population that may have genetic predispositions to autoimmune disease, local inflammation can be one of the triggers for disease.  However, one problem, among many, is that the pathogenesis of autoimmune disease involves multiple steps of initiation and progression, so a first trigger that initiated the process may not necessarily lead to disease right away.  The same mechanism is also involved in the role of infection in inducing autoimmunity.  By the time the disease is manifest, the original trigger is long gone, making it impossible to determine causation.  Some researchers have dubbed this the 'hit and run' problem.

One example I already wrote about, is the association between the Hepatitis B vaccine and MS, that I wrote about here and especially here.  Note the following from that paper

The risk was greater, although not significantly, when the last immunization took place within the second or third years before first symptoms compared with the first year before first symptoms

Whether or not it was statistically significant for people to develop symptoms in the second and third years, the fact remains that more people developed symptoms in those 2 years, than in the first year, showing how difficult it is to pin down the correlation, after such a long time lag.

Because of this (and other) challenges, it's not easy to definitely 'prove' that vaccines or adjuvants 'cause' autoimmunity.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
which also means
clinical trial data where subjects are followed for a maximum of 6 months, is insufficient to give us safety signals, for many autoimmune conditions.  

Add to that the fact that most sample sizes for trials are insufficient to pick up anything with a background incidence that is less than 0.1% or 1%, depending on which threshold is used for licensing.  And most autoimmune conditions have a lower background incidence than that!!


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
size of clinical trials
A recent analysis, estimates that the background rate of GBS that may happen just by coincidence following vaccination (ie no causal relationship) is about 0.01 - 0.46 cases per 100,000 vaccinations within 6 weeks of vaccination.  In comparison,

If the background rate is 1 in 100,000; 53,500 and 1,238,000 vaccinated subjects are needed to demonstrate an increase in the SAEs risk in vaccinees by 10-fold and 2-fold, respectively.

You can see that it will take a VERY large number of vaccinations (in the order of millions) AND good surveillance, to pick up any increase in GBS!!


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
reference for above
(the stupid soapblox software messed up my links!!)

http://www.journals.uchicago.e...


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
if the increase is difficult to detect ...
Let me see if I understand.

Let's say the background rate is 1 in 100,000.  Let's say the adjuvant increases the rate by 10, turning it into  10 in 100,000, where the adjuvant would be responsible for 9 in 100,000, "the excesive 9".  With 1 million people vaccinated, the adjuvant would be  making 90 people ill.  In a country with say 100 million vaccinees, the adjuvant would be making 9,000 people ill.

So the question is, is it worth waiting for the trial to be done with 53,500 before vaccinating 100 million people?

I'd say yes, IF the disease would cause an amount of suffering higher than 9,000 deaths in those 100 vaccinees.  Something that depends on our ability to know or predict that.

And notice I say "suffering".  The younger the vaccinees are, the more years of suffering we're talking about.  The risk-benefit equation is different for seniors and for kids.

But given how novel H1N1 is behaving, given that so far about 1 million US citizens may have been infected, with a number of deaths, we should be able to figure out how many deaths will happen if the second wave is like the first in terms of lethality, only 99 times more numerous.  99 more numerous because if 1 million have been infected then there's 99 more millions to go, at a 33% CAR.

I don't have the figures right now, but we could compute them.  And recalculate for scenarios in which the second wave is 10 or 100 times more lethal than the present one.

If the above makes sense, then maybe there could be a way to make not too stupid decisions about this.  Potentially at least.

Thing is, we haven't yet factored in the notion that some effects are delayed and can't be seen soon enough.  To be extreme, a 1000-fold increase in rate would be invisible if it happens after the follow-up period has ended.  Say all or most secondary effects happen 1 day after the study is finished!  I guess there are curves for frequency along time, so that if there's none after a certain point, you'd be sure not many will pop up later.  (And my brain starts to hurt a bit.)

So part of the problem, and a potentialy big part, is having too short follow-up periods, right?

Someone please check the logic and then, if the logic makes sense, add real numbers!

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
not all seniors would fully agree
"The younger the vaccinees are, the more years of suffering we're talking about.  The risk-benefit equation is different for seniors and for kids."

For seniors, the next 10-20 years is "100% of the rest of my life". :-)

But they'd agree 80 years of suffering is worse.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
another question re trial size
"So the question is, is it worth waiting for the trial to be done with 53,500 before vaccinating 100 million people?"

Another question is, if the trial is done with say 1,000 or 2,000 "subjects", aka "persons", we'd miss biggish effects, wouldn't we?  To be precise, we'd be missing effects bigger than a 10-fold increase in a disease with a base rate of 1 in 100,000.  It might increase the frequency by 100 and we wouldn't know?  Are my figures right?  Is that what we're talking about?

A somewhat separate question: Are there reasons to believe the figures could be that much bigger?

I don't think I can do the numbers, but we might be talking about not knowing whether or not we'll be inflicting whatever syndrom on many thousands of people.

Just because we didn't do our homework?

Sounds pretty rushed to me, at least as I write this.

:frown:

(Please re-run the logic.  Tell me if I'm wrong!)

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
it all depends on the vaccine
See, the problem is, there is no way to do clinical trials in numbers much bigger than 10,000 or so, even under the best circumstances and without a pandemic breathing down our necks.  So clinical trials are just not going to pick out these rare but severe adverse events.  

You are then left with post-marketing surveillance, which means people reporting problems after getting the vaccine.  Post-marketing surveillance can be active (eg following up on clinical trial subjects, which still will not give you a big cohort, and is most often done by the companies, if you want to trust them, or tracing patient cohorts, which is labor and time-intensive) or passive.  Passive surveillance suffers from underreporting by about 10:1, of real problems especially if people (or more often their docs) don't realize are vaccine-related.  It also suffers from over-reporting, of problems that are unrelated to vaccines, which in a perverse way, also tends to 'dilute' the signal.

The biggest problem that I see, with passive surveillance, in the context of adjuvants, is that any delayed effects will not be attributed to vaccines.  Even though we know that correlation in time (ie events after vaccination) does not necessrily imply causation, the opposite problem ie detecting AEs that are far removed in time, is IMO more significant if you want to detect severe AE that take a much longer lead time to manifest, like the MS and Hep B example that I gave.

So, how do you make any safety assessments, in the presence of all these problems?  It's difficult.  As Norman Baylor said in one meeting I was in, we need to rely much more on the basic science, ie a better understanding from immunology, to help us make a judgment on risk vs benefits. Right now, the tools that we have, are simply inadequate, to answer these questions.

The reason why I said it depends on the vaccine, is that the risk of significant numbers of unanticipated SAE occurring is much lower with some vaccines than others. We have a lot of experience with licensed unadjuvanted flu vaccines.  Yes, they are not 100% effective nor 100% safe, but we do have some idea, some ballpark idea, on a population level, of whether we are likely to see catastrophic numbers of SAEs that may or may not be easily traced back to the vaccine.

In the case of GBS, I don't believe we can exclude it totally, it's going to be a known risk with flu vaccines.  The question is, do we want to take the risk of INCREASING this risk even more, by adding adjuvants?  In the absence of good models or methods that will give us information in a timely manner before millions and millions are vaccinated, my opinion is it's not worth it.  

Just my opinion, of course.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
If they're going to vaccinate ALL our children in school,
that's a heavy responsibility.  They should be discussing this with parents.  Maybe adjuvants will be one of the topics at these CDC-sponsored meetings.  

"These are public engagement outreaches which involve meeting with a group of members of the public, really for an entire day, with providing information to them and then asking them questions regarding what's been termed 'value choices' about how to use the vaccine," Butler said. "We're trying to have an opportunity for public input into some of the decisions we are struggling with."

"There are uncertainties that remain about how widespread and severe flu will be and how much demand there will be at the time for a vaccine," CDC spokesman Tom Skinner tells WebMD. "Because of the complexities of planning, these uncertainties pose a difficult dilemma. Should the U.S. go full throttle, take a go-slow approach, or somewhere in between?"

They are aware of safety issues, shown by this statement from the CDC meeting announcement: "That a safety overview be created to look at safety data as they come in during and after the vaccination program, and not wait to begin inquiries until after a safety signal appears."
http://www.webmd.com/cold-and-...

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
just guessing
but maybe some CDC folks want to bring these issues into public light?

Or are they responding to feelings already present?

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
maybe, maybe not
Hard to tell from the text of that page http://www.keystone.org/H1N1

The CDC is asking for public discussion, deliberation and input as the agency considers whether to simply make vaccines available to those seeking immunization, to promote vaccination to those most at risk or to implement a widespread immunization program.

They are asking about the scope of the vaccination program. Remember that only the FDA can give the go-ahead, with regards to either licensing or using EUA.  As and when the issue of adjuvanted vaccines is raised, the whole EUA thing needs to be debated.  I doubt that they will find enough support for that, but of course, there's no room for complacency either.




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
yes, they are aware of the safety issues
that said, remember there is no monolithic 'they' in government, but different agencies with different responsibilities, and of course different people who have different opinions influenced by whatever background they come from.  

And running through all this, don't forget that millions if not billions of dollars of future vaccine sales lie in the balance.  This current pandemic is becoming the 'test case', for getting novel adjuvants into mass prophylactic immunization.  The debate should be open, robust, and thorough, IMHO.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
The kids in the US would get the non-adjuvanted vaccine
NIAID director Anthony Fauci explains testing strategy.

...
Will you test adjuvanted vaccines in children?

The Europeans have lots of data on the use of adjuvanted flu vaccine in the elderly, but I don't think anybody has really good data on adjuvants in children. The Department of Health and Human Services (DHHS) has therefore decided that we are not going to take the chance, and has made a policy decision that we are not going to give adjuvanted flu vaccines to kids. We don't have the time to collect substantial data.

http://www.nature.com/news/200...


[ Parent ]
yes, there is just no data on under 18
and, in the US, they are not requiring clinical trials for adjuvanted vaccines for ages under 18, which means that even with EUA, it's not going to extend to that age group.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
but in Europe
no such restrictions exist.  At least under EMEA regulations, the pandemic vaccines can be used in all age groups, under the following guidelines

In the case of an actual pandemic (see section 5.3.4) priority should be given to an assessment of the immunogenicity of the final pandemic vaccine in children. At the time of marketing authorisation the plans for paediatric studies have to be agreed upon in the Risk Management Plan (RMP).

The last sentence means that in the event of a pandemic the manufacturers do not have to submit additional data on pediatraic populations before final approval, and pediatric clinical trials to determine immunogenicity and (presumably) safety can be run concurrently as the vaccine is marketed, relying on 'Risk Management Plan', ie post-marketing trials and surveillance, for safety.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
also note that it isn't just kids
People over the age of 18, are also someone's children.  

Mine are over 18.  They are still my 'kids'.  LOL


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Spooky indeed. Like a horror movie.
It sounds really alarming.  "First, do no harm."  What happened to that as a guiding principle?

A recent news magazine wrote about individualized medicine.  My Google search for the phrase got 113 million hits.  When a substance in a vaccine can cause a life-long disease, and we can't tell who's susceptible, we ought to be cautious.

This is nicely written, but I had to snip only a bit:

...Even a tiny fraction of variation between the three billion DNA letters that make up one's genome and that of another can account for the difference between being an XS or an XL; between a penchant for peanuts and a life-threatening allergic reaction to them.

These slight genetic variations - most of which have little or no impact, but some of which have huge implications - imply that every one of us - each a collection of 100 trillion cells - has his or her own "flavor of health or disease," observes David Valle, M.D., director of the Johns Hopkins McKusick-Nathans Institute of Genetic Medicine.

And yet, physicians practice what Valle calls "average" medicine; average not in sense of "mediocre" but standard.  One-flavor-fits-all.


http://www.hopkinsmedicine.org...

1: Nature. 2004 May 27;429(6990):464-8.Click here to read Links
   Moving towards individualized medicine with pharmacogenomics.
   Evans WE, Relling MV.

   Department of Pharmaceutical Sciences, St Jude Children's Research Hospital, Memphis, Tennessee 38105, USA. william.evans@stjude.org

   Individuals respond differently to drugs and sometimes the effects are unpredictable. Differences in DNA that alter the expression or function of proteins that are targeted by drugs can contribute significantly to variation in the responses of individuals. Many of the genes examined in early studies were linked to highly penetrant, single-gene traits, but future advances hinge on the more difficult challenge of elucidating multi-gene determinants of drug response. This intersection of genomics and medicine has the potential to yield a new set of molecular diagnostic tools that can be used to individualize and optimize drug therapy.

 

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
link to second quote
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pu...

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
Vaccine concerns
That vaccination with any antigen could result in unanticipated problems is a fact but it should also be born in mind that widespread vaccination of humanity is how smallpox was irradiated.

Polio would have been a disease of the past as well except for the fact that for cultural reasons in Africa, many eschewed the vaccine and now regrettably polio remains endemic in that area of the planet.  

2009 US CDC guidelines for seasonal influenza vaccine include 83% of the population and recently the agency appears to be on the verge of calling for universal influenza vaccination for seasonal flu.  Tomorrow, the vaccine committee will meet to decide how to ration the limited novel H1N1 vaccine that will become available sometime between October and December.  

The number of doses of the novel H1N1 killed vaccine needed to immunize someone sufficiently is not presently known.  Whether the killed novel strain will need to be combined with an adjuvant or not is unknown at this time.  The long tern side effects of the vaccine especially one combined with an adjuvant are unknown and will not be known when the vaccine is administered.  

Whether the novel strain will be more lethal in the coming flu season than it is currently within the northern hemisphere is unknown.

Is it best to vaccinate all children aged 6 months to 13 years of age as the best way of decreasing the transmission rate of the pandemic strain?  

Should all pregnant women be vaccinated first given their high mortality when infected?  

What about the world's political and military leadership; should not they be vaccinated first to prevent those whom the serve to become leaderless?  

Then what about those who manufacture flu vaccine, should no they be vaccinated first?  

Then there are all the first responders both EMTs, police, and fire personnel; since our safety depends on their health, should not they be at the head of the line?

Then there are the members of the military, they include both those who keep us safe and those at highest risk from death from pandemic flu; obviously they should be given priority.

What about those who maintain the power grid and water systems, what would we do without them remaining healthy?  Should not they be at the head of the line for the jab?  

Then there are the legions who grow and harvest, process, transport, and sell us our food. They are almost certainly irreplaceable workers who all depend on and should they not be placed at the front of the line for vaccine?

And then all the doctors, nurses and allied health personal that treat us and help us to get well, should not they get the first vaccines?  

What about the highly trained chemists, biologists, physicists etc should they not be given top priority?  

There are so many others who deserve the same consideration as those examples above.  

There are so many questions so few answers and so little vaccine.  It is really an almost impossible problem to solve. There are many unknowns but so little time to determine the safety of the vaccine and what strategy to use to employ it best.

GW


there are no absolute answers
as you said, so little time to discover what is the right thing to do.  I have various concerns, including whether enough people are given vaccines to protect them against potentially life-threatening illness.  If that goal was not important, I would not be examining the safety of vaccines.

The chief purpose of my current investigation, is not to determine whether we should or should not vaccinate, and who should get vaccinated.  Rather my goal is to explore and reveal some of the issues - some settled, many not yet - around vaccination.  Scientists, PH officials, and governments are trying to make some difficult decisions about costs vs benefits.  It is my personal belief that the general public should have a role too, and they cannot play that role unless they know more of what science knows or does not know.

Just as we here have spent the past few years educating each other about H5N1 and preparedness - the good, the bad, and the ugly - vaccines are the most potent opposite side of the coin for a pandemic virus.  Therefore, in my mind it is just as important to explore and understand the vaccine (any vaccine) as it is to understand the virus.

The public has a right to make informed decisions.  Learning about the science behind vaccines is a critically important step, before one can make rational judgments about some of the issues you raised.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
the subtext that I'm reading here
That vaccination with any antigen could result in unanticipated problems is a fact but it should also be born in mind that widespread vaccination of humanity is how smallpox was irradiated.

Polio would have been a disease of the past as well except for the fact that for cultural reasons in Africa, many eschewed the vaccine and now regrettably polio remains endemic in that area of the planet.  

which may not be intentional on your part, is that the examination of vaccine safety should always be balanced against their benefits.  That I cannot agree more.

But what I also often encounter, again as a subtext, is that any attempt to examine the safety or even uncertainties (ie the limits of science) about vaccines has a tendency to invite comments about the risks vs benefits of vaccines, rather than comments about the science presented.  

My POV is one cannot assess the risks vs benefits unless we understand the science, including the limits of certainty.

It reminds me - and I know you don't intend that and probably don't believe that - how often when we talk about H5N1 with people, they would start telling you about how we're all going to die anyway so what is the point of worrying about it, instead of engaging in an objective exploration of the issues.  It's a very insidious attitude, pervasive, I might say, in some quarters.  I'm sure I'm not the only one who find that frustrating....


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Would YOU get the vaccine?
So given the possible risks of the vaccine, would you get it? This is something I struggle with. I'm almost into the third trimester of pregnancy, and I have a young child who will be starting school soon. Do I take the risks that the vaccine may cause harm to me and/or my children, or do I take the risk of getting the flu?  

Depends . . .
On a lot of things.

If I were you, I would be thinking more about the risk of sending the child to school than about the risk of taking the vaccine, but that's just me.


[ Parent ]
are you in the US?
The US is not using adjuvanted vaccines, not in the first instance.  They are using the seasonal formulation, which is much safer especially for pregnant women


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
the young child
may get the intranasal live attenuated vaccinr from MedImmune.  That is also licensed.  Needs only 1 dose (as opposed to 2 doses in children for the inactivated).


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
no, I would not take an adjuvanted vaccine
nor would I let me kids take one


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Read this if you are pregnant
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

Also, remember to ask for a thimerosal-free vaccine.  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Anthony Fauci says US won't give adjuvanted vaccine to kids,
because we haven't tested it on children.  So far, so good.  But then how can Laurie Garrett be so strongly saying to add adjuvants, it's a no-brainer (so we can share vaccine with the world)??  
L.G.: We absolutely should be using adjuvant. No holds barred. The attitude of the global community that I'm hearing is this is unethical. In terms of globalization, in terms of the whole future of relations between the emerging market countries and the United States and the wealthy world generally, it is absolutely imperative that we use adjuvant.

Q: There's another issue: Individual risk/benefit versus public good. If you use adjuvant to benefit an individual-if the vaccine wouldn't work well without it-that's one risk/benefit equation. But if you're using adjuvant to supply vaccine to the rest of the world, that's a different risk/benefit equation altogether. You're requiring people to take risks so that others will have the product, too.
L.G.: We have a long history of accepting as generous Americans, citizens of the world, that we take risks on behalf of needy people elsewhere. Who were the first and strongest responders to the [Banda] Aceh tsunamis? United States military forces. When we look at food crises around the world, the citizenry and the government of the United States feel that it's in our interest to step up to the plate even if it ends up costing taxpayer money.

http://blogs.sciencemag.org/sc...
Taxpayer money does not have the same value as your children's health.
The interviewer had it right.  The risk is possibly setting off a life-long chronic disease in your child by using an adjuvant to rev up a perfectly good immune system, for someone else's benefit.  I don't think so!  If we have too little vaccine (for us alone or to share with the world) it would be better to make a detailed priority list and tell others to stay home until there's enough vaccine for them too.  Yes, it would be horribly complicated.  Dealing with that discomfort is preferable to having maimed our children, IMO.

My DD already has an autoimmune disease.  She shouldn't risk taking an adjuvanted vaccine that could further damage her health.  (DH and I are hoping to have some grandchildren in the future; that's another reason to be cautious.)  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


Will drug manufacturers get a free pass
Will drug manufacturers get a free pass if things go awry after administration of the newly developed flu shots if the vaccines are pushed through too quickly.

While I do see the need for expediencty, I ask this question because several years back our politicians pulled a fast one by, as is their habit, inserting an unrelated measure into a defense spending bill. Politicians seem duty bound to approve any defense spending bill because to vote against them could be used as ammunition to derail their careers in future elections.

Nicknamed Bioshield Two, this bill was passed by the Senate in late December 2005. Formally it's called S. 1873, the "Biodefense and Pandemic Vaccine and Drug Development Act of 2005," it was introduced by Senator Richard Burr (R), and co-sponsored by Bill Frist (R), Elizabeth Dole (R), Lamar Alexander (R), Judd Gregg (R), and Michael Enzi (R).

Despite negotiations over concerns regarding the measure of liability protections, late on the Sunday night before Christmas, the negotiators of the Defense Spending Bill signed off on it.

According to House Appropriations Committee ranking Democrat David Obey: "The conference committee ended its work with the understanding, both verbal and in writing, that there would be no, I repeat, no legislative liability protection language inserted in this bill."

Yet hours after the conference was closed Senator Bill Frist approached Senator Hastert and convinced him to insert more than 40 pages of language into the bill, which creates a liability shield for drug manufacturers (this was in violation of House and Senate rules).

I suppose there are pros and cons to this subject, but I suppose in the short term I would much rather have vaccine makers actively working on the answer to a pandemic rather than sitting back afraid of the lawyer who's hiding behind every bush. Still, I can't help but get nervous when the drugs being pushed my way were developed under a government umbrella.

The beatings will continue until morale improves.


they do have liability protection n/t



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Length of protection
This comment has nothing to do with GBS per se, but immunity.  Considering that according to the CDC, our oldest population that was exposed to the 1918 virus still has antibodies that protect them against the new swine H1N1, I find it amazing that this protection has lasted 80 years.  And yet it is known that the yearly seasonal vaccine only protects our elderly some months.

Does anyone have a sense why there is this huge difference in length of protection?  Does it have something to do with exposure to natural wild virus, which includes all the internal genes?  Are there any clues here we could be learning from?

It would be interesting to see a serology titer study of people that had the 1957 H2N2 influenza, and see what levels of protection still exist.


short term vs long term immunity
Immunity is not a binary yes/no function.  Rather, there are varying degrees of protection that one can get from having been previously infected and having developed an immune response.  

Everything else being equal (and of course they never are!) someone who has been exposed a long time ago would still have some immune protection as compared to someone who is totally immunologically naive, who is more likely to acquire more severe disease than in seasonal flu.  But this person who has some immunity from a long time ago, would probably still have less immunity to this pandemic virus compared to his/her immunity to the seasonal flu virus.

Each year, we are exposed to the seasonal flu virus.  Prior exposure does not provide 100% protection, so you'd still get sick.  But because the antigenic change from the previous season is generally small, then the severity of sickness is lower.  In other words, the degree of protection depends on the match between the strain that you had immunity to, compared to the one that you get infected with!!!


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Three possible explanations to the lenght of protection question.
Beehiver asks why seniors appear to have protection to the 1918 virus but need a yearly flu shot for recent exposures.  Here are a couple of possible answers.
1) Dose - Vaccines provide a small amount of killed antigen, a real infection has the potential for exposure to a much higher amount of antigen as the virus multiples in multiple cells of the human body.
2) Age at exposure - Toddlers have amazing immune systems. When a toddler gets hepatitis A for the first time, they may not even have symptoms. The older we get the more likely we are to have severe disease.
And certainly your suggestion that is it the whole live virus has merit as well -  http://www.plospathogens.org/a...
 

[ Parent ]
PNAS: viral CNS effects
Bird flu survivors could face brain disease risk

Tue Aug 11, 2009 12:52am IST
http://in.reuters.com/article/...

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Survivors of bird flu and perhaps other influenza viruses may not be out of the woods once the fever and cough are gone -- animal studies suggest the virus may damage the brain and cause Alzheimer's and Parkinson's disease.

The tests on mice show that the H5N1 virus can get into the brain, causing damage that resembles Parkinson's and Alzheimer's in humans, the researchers wrote in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

"Our results suggest that a pandemic H5N1 pathogen, or other neurotropic influenza virus, could initiate central nervous system disorders of protein aggregation including Parkinson's and Alzheimer's diseases," Dr. Richard Smeynea of St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, and colleagues wrote.  [snip]

The source article at PNAS is at
http://www.pnas.org/content/ea...

Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza virus can enter the central nervous system and induce neuroinflammation and neurodegeneration

Abstract
One of the greatest influenza pandemic threats at this time is posed by the highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza viruses. To date, 61% of the 433 known human cases of H5N1 infection have proved fatal. Animals infected by H5N1 viruses have demonstrated acute neurological signs ranging from mild encephalitis to motor disturbances to coma. However, no studies have examined the longer-term neurologic consequences of H5N1 infection among surviving hosts. Using the C57BL/6J mouse, a mouse strain that can be infected by the A/Vietnam/1203/04 H5N1 virus without adaptation, we show that this virus travels from the peripheral nervous system into the CNS to higher levels of the neuroaxis. In regions infected by H5N1 virus, we observe activation of microglia and alpha-synuclein phosphorylation and aggregation that persists long after resolution of the infection. We also observe a significant loss of dopaminergic neurons in the substantia nigra pars compacta 60 days after infection. Our results suggest that a pandemic H5N1 pathogen, or other neurotropic influenza virus, could initiate CNS disorders of protein aggregation including Parkinson's and Alzheimer's diseases.


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