News Reports for December 7, 2009

'Rational drug design'

identifies fragments of FDA-approved drugs relevant to emerging viruses

If H5N1 (avian flu) or H1N1/09 (swine flu) develop resistance to current therapies

A massive, data-crunching computer search program that matches fragments of potential drug molecules to the known shapes of viral surface proteins has identified several FDA-approved drugs that could be the basis for new medicines -- if emerging viruses such as the H5N1(avian flu) or H1N1/09 (swine flu) develop resistance to current antiviral therapies -- according to a presentation at the American Society for Cell Biology (ASCB) 49th Annual Meeting, Dec. 5-9, 2009 in San Diego.

The compounds were identified through a "rational drug design" project in the laboratory of Andrew McCammon, Ph.D., HHMI investigator at the University of California at San Diego. The McCammon lab honed the search algorithms that helped identify the second generation of anti-HIV drugs.

Like fitting a key to a lock, computer search algorithms take the known shapes of drugs and match them, one after another, to the known shapes of disease-related proteins. In the study presented at the ASCB conference, Daniel B. Dadon, a member of the McCammon lab, will explain how the search targeted the neuraminidase proteins, one of the two major sets of glycoproteins on the outer surface of influenza viruses. Because biomolecules don't sit still -- they're moving targets -- scientists must consider how the protein can slightly shift position or shape. Continued: http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Sun Dec 06, 2009 at 23:19:34 PM CST

lab honed the search algorithms...

doesn't that sound archaic? Honed?

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by: Mr White42 @ Sun Dec 06, 2009 at 23:30:16 PM CST

nope, normal in my dialect (UK) n/t

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by: Mathematician @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 02:36:52 AM CST

[ Parent ]

D225G and D225N In Utah Patient Raises Pandemic Concerns

Recombinomics Commentary

The CDC has put HA sequences, A/Utah/42/2009, from a Utah patient (28F) on deposit at Genbank, which has D225G and D225N.  Moreover, the sequence from the original sample gives mixed signals at tandem positions, revealing significant heterogeneity that the codon clone for the original sample has D225G.  D225N and D225G have been identified in necropsy lung samples from Brazil (A Sao Paulo/53845/2009 and A/Sao Paulo/53838/2009 have D225N while A/Sao Paulo/53225/2009 and A/Sao Paulo/53206/2009 have D225G) raising concerns that these polymorphisms are associated with more severe disease.

The severity may be linked to viral load, because D225G and D225N were present as mixtures in early cases in the US in California and Texas. In fact the vaccine target, A/California/7/2009 was a mixture for D225G, as were several other isolates isolated at about the same time in Texas and California. (Snip)

More recently, these changes were found in more severe cases.  All four fatal cases in Ukraine had D225G, while the first fatal cases in Norway had D225G and D225E SNPs.  The Utah case above however is the first sample with D225G and D225N.  In the United States, the two isolates in New York with D225N had an additional polymorphism which was also in A/Ternopil/N11/2009, a fatal case from Ukraine, suggesting additional relationships which are not well represented in the existing database.  (Snip)

However, the recent findings sequences encoding D225N and D225G, as well as wild type, in the same sample raises concerns that this diversity has paved the way for rapid and varied responses to immunological pressures which has already caused concerns due to the low reactor status of D225G when tested against anti-sera directed against the target of the killed vaccine. http://www.recombinomics.com/N...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Sun Dec 06, 2009 at 23:33:08 PM CST

Patient in Utah has swine flu virus with D225G,

low reactor H1N1 mutation causing lung hemorrhaging

A sample from a Utah swine flu patient has been analyzed, and shows the same H1N1 mutation found in Ukraine and other locations around the world. This mutation of the pandemic A H1N1 swine flu virus, the receptor binding domain change of D225G, is associated with lung hemorrhaging and resistance to the swine flu vaccine.
(Snip)
The H1N1 mutation that affects the receptor binding domain D225G causes the swine flu virus to attach to cells deep in the lungs. This can cause severe illness, including lung hemorrhaging. The D225G RBD has been found in cases of swine flu in Ukraine, Brazil, and other locations around the world. Symptoms of bleeding in the lungs have been identified here in the United States.

It's possible that more cases exist, but the type of sample taken during testing may limit the number of cases identified. Swine flu samples are typically taken with a swab of the inside of the nasal passage, while the D225G strain would be found in lung tissue. The severity of H1N1 Influenza infections in Ukraine has been closely linked to the D225G RBD change, as well.
(Snip)
The H275Y H1N1 mutation causes the virus to be resistant to the antiviral medication Tamiflu.(Snip) This mutation has been found in clusters in Maryland, North Carolina, and Wales, and in individual cases all over the world. In France, a combination of the H275Y mutation and the D225G mutation were found in a fatal case of the swine flu. http://www.examiner.com/x-2922...

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by: NewsDiary @ Sun Dec 06, 2009 at 23:54:29 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Oops! Forgot to take off my mask. LOL

The article above was posted by me.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Sun Dec 06, 2009 at 23:56:52 PM CST

[ Parent ]

wowo D225G and D225N ....take a deep breath and get that mask back on _);((0

"I have come to value liberated minds as the supreme good of life on earth."

epitaph on grave of J. Frank Dobie

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by: Joseph_Roehl_kiwiamerican @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 01:49:43 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Greece: confirmation of 32 deaths in new totals, 3 more critical

FOCUS News Agency

Athens.

Greece has reported 32 victims of the new A (H1N1) flu, Greek News.in web page informed. Two women and a man are in critical condition and a 26-year-old pregnant woman is in the emergency. 237 schools in Attica district will be closed Monday over flu epidemic. 183 328 people have been vaccinated against the new flu since November 16.

http://www.focus-fen.net/index...

"I have come to value liberated minds as the supreme good of life on earth."

epitaph on grave of J. Frank Dobie

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by: Joseph_Roehl_kiwiamerican @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 01:51:12 AM CST

MA: Massachusetts confirms 7 more deaths in past 2 weeks, total now 24

BOSTON (AP) - State health officials have reported seven more confirmed deaths from the swine flu over the past couple weeks in Massachusetts, but the number of people reporting flu-like illness has declined over that same period

According to the latest flu report from the Massachusetts Department of Public Health on Thursday, a total of 24 Massachusetts residents have died since the H1N1 outbreak began in the spring. Half of those deaths have been reported since Oct. 4.

The most recent confirmed deaths include one child under the age of 4, three people between the ages of 45-64 and three people 65 or over

http://www.rep-am.com/articles...

"I have come to value liberated minds as the supreme good of life on earth."

epitaph on grave of J. Frank Dobie

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by: Joseph_Roehl_kiwiamerican @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 02:36:29 AM CST

Egypt: Death 30 and 31 from swine flu

The Ministry of Health announces the death of 30 and 31 cases of swine flu

12/6/2009 10:10:00 PM - The Ministry of Health Sunday for the deaths 30 and 31 influenza disease, "AH-1 that 1" the world-renowned swine flu.

The Press Release from the Ministry of Health that the situation (30) for Egyptian woman named Hamida Ahmed Mohammed Shaheen, aged 29 years and works as a nurse Zefta County General Hospital Bank.

The hospital was booked Mahala Gharbia on Saturday, November 28th, 2009, has been suffering from severe respiratory symptoms and condition of health is precarious, where he was transferred to the intensive care unit and placed on a respirator, the patient was three months pregnant.

The situation (31) is the Egyptian woman called Hayam Mohamed Mustafa, aged 54, from Giza Governorate. He was booked at a hospital in the pyramid in Giza, Saturday, suffering from severe respiratory symptoms, and history of patients to take the case refers to chemotherapy and radiation after hysterectomy.

Source: Middle East News Agency, Masrawy.

http://translate.google.com/tr...

http://www.masrawy.com/new/

United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...

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by: cottontop @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 05:37:05 AM CST

Gaza: First swine flu death

Agence France-Presse
First Posted 17:48:00 12/07/2009

Filed Under: Swine Flu

GAZA CITY-Two women have died in Hamas-run Gaza after contracting A(H1N1) flu virus, the first deaths from the virus in the densely-populated Palestinian territory, officials said on Monday.

Hassan Khalaf, a spokesman for the Hamas health ministry, declined to give details but said the condition of three other people who on Sunday had been confirmed to have contracted A(H1N1) was improving.

The five cases reported on Sunday marked the first A(H1N1) cases in the Gaza Strip, which Israel and Egypt have kept under a blockade allowing in only essential humanitarian aid, since the Islamist Hamas seized power in June 2007.

In the occupied West Bank, at least 1,250 cases of swine flu have been reported, with nine deaths, according to government figures.

continued
http://newsinfo.inquirer.net/b...

United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...

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by: cottontop @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 05:40:27 AM CST

Successful Phase I/II Clinical Trial for BiondVax

Successful Phase I/II Clinical Trial for BiondVax Pharmaceuticals' Universal Flu Vaccine
BiondVax's Multimeric-001 Universal Flu Vaccine was found to be safe and to activate both arms of the human immune system, inducing an elevated level of antibodies in all participants
RECHOVOT, Israel, Dec. 7 PRNewswire --

•60 people, males and females, aged 18-49, participated in the trial
•The antibodies generated by the vaccine specifically identified several strains of influenza, including the swine flu strain
•BiondVax's CEO Dr. Ron Babecoff: "This is an important indication along the way towards the realization of the Company's vision of ensuring protection against all flu strains with a single vaccination."
BiondVax Pharmaceuticals Ltd. (TASE: BNDK), an Israeli biopharmaceutical company at the forefront of the development of a Universal Influenza Vaccine, announced the success of the Phase I/II clinical trial of the Company's Multimeric-001 Universal Flu Vaccine, in trials conducted at the Sourasky Medical Center in Tel Aviv, Israel. The Phase I/II trial was a randomized, single-blind, placebo-controlled, escalating double-dose safety study in which a total of 60 participants, males and females aged 18-49, received two intramuscular injections containing the Multimeric-001 vaccine, either with or without adjuvant, and at two different dose levels.

The clinical trial results show that BiondVax's Multimeric-001 Universal Flu Vaccine is safe to use at all doses tested, both with and without adjuvant.

In addition, it was found that the Multimeric-001 Universal Flu Vaccine activated, in a statistically significant manner when compared with placebo, the two arms of the human immune system - the humoral (antibody) arm and the cellular arm. All participants who received the vaccine showed a high level of antibodies against the Multimeric-001 Universal Flu Vaccine. These antibodies also specifically identified a number of different strains of influenza, including the swine flu strain (A/H1N1).

continued
http://www.prnewswire.com/news...

United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...

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by: cottontop @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 05:48:16 AM CST

Saudia Arabia: 10 more H1N1 deaths

7 December 2009 RIYADH - The Ministry of Health in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia announced 10 new deaths due to H1N1 virus bringing the death toll to 97.

The ministry said in a statement that the deceased includes three residents and seven Saudis.

http://www.khaleejtimes.com/di...

United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...

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by: cottontop @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 05:51:02 AM CST

India: Nine more swine flu deaths

Published on Mon, Dec 07, 2009 at 13:21

New Delhi: Nine swine flu deaths were reported on Sunday, including four from Rajasthan, the toll due to influenza A (H1N1) virus in India to 627, health authorities said here.

Also, 144 new cases were reported in the country, taking the total number of people affected with the contagious flu to 20,165.

With the four deaths, the toll in Rajasthan has gone up to 67. Two deaths were reported from Gujarat, taking the number of fatalities due to Influenza A (H1N1) virus in the state to 49.

Two deaths were also reported from Maharastra on Sunday taking the toll in the state to 232.

One death was also reported from the national capital, taking the total toll here to 30.

The number of people affected with the virus in Delhi is now the highest in the country at 5,826 as per Saturday evening.

"One death was reported today (Friday). A 25-year-old male was brought dead to the Ambedkar Hospital," Anjana Prakash, Delhi's assistant nodal officer for swine flu, told IANS.

continued
http://ibnlive.in.com/news/nin...

United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...

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by: cottontop @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 05:57:26 AM CST

India: toll reaches 632

Five swine flu deaths in Delhi, India toll 632  

2009-12-07 22:20:00  

Five more H1N1 patients died in Delhi, taking the swine flu toll in the country to 632, health authorities said Monday.

Though Delhi government authorities added only four deaths to their cumulative death figure (34), they said another person also died at Guru Teg Bahadur hospital late Sunday night. The victim was from Uttar Pradesh.

'The patient was not a resident of Delhi and we are not including the death in the cumulative total of Delhi,' Anjana Prakash, the state's assistant nodal officer for swine flu, told IANS.

Of the four deaths, a nine-month infant died in St Stephens Hospital and a 52-year-old man breathed his last at the Mata Chanan Devi Hospital, she said.

'Two suspected swine deaths were reported from the Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital last week and were confirmed Monday. So, the four swine flu deaths takes the total to 34,' she added.

Delhi reported 198 fresh swine flu cases Monday. 'The cumulative swine flu cases in Delhi now stands at 6,171,' she said.

Though, there were no reports of fresh deaths from any other state, the health ministry said that the country reported 315 new cases of Influenza A (H1N1). Apart from Delhi, Haryana reported 39 new cases, followed by Uttar Pradesh (30 new cases).

http://sify.com/news/five-swin...

 

"I have come to value liberated minds as the supreme good of life on earth."

epitaph on grave of J. Frank Dobie

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by: Joseph_Roehl_kiwiamerican @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 16:07:53 PM CST

[ Parent ]

US: At death's door with H1N1 for three weeks

http://www.startribune.com/lif...

It's too soon to know how many of the nearly 100,000 people who have been hospitalized with H1N1 since it emerged in this country in April had ARDs. Many serious illnesses and deaths are related to underlying conditions such as asthma or diabetes, or bacterial infections that occur along with H1N1.

But there are enough such cases to worry health officials.

For example, a preliminary study of about 650 H1N1 patients hospitalized in the Twin Cities showed that 5.4 percent had a diagnosis of ARDS, said Dr. Ruth Lynfield, state epidemiologist. Similar reports have come from New Zealand, Canada and Europe.

Why does it happen to some people but not others?

No one knows for sure, but one prevailing theory is that it's genetic, said Dr. Greg Poland, an infectious-disease expert at the Mayo Clinic.

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by: DemFromCT @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 07:22:45 AM CST

US (IL): Minorities hit harder by H1N1

   Blacks and Hispanics in Illinois have died from swine flu at double the rate it has killed whites in the state, and swine flu has hospitalized the two minority populations at more than triple the rate for whites.

   Less access to health care, more chronic health problems and lower vaccination rates among the two minority groups probably play a role, Illinois officials said Friday at a meeting in Chicago where minorities were encouraged to be inoculated.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/...

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by: DemFromCT @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 07:23:59 AM CST

General: Don't let swine flu crash your holiday party

(snip)health and entertaining experts say it's possible to throw a holiday party without making everyone wear surgical masks and hazmat suits. It's a question of managing risk. (snip) And remember to have fun. http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/33...

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by: JonC @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 07:26:57 AM CST

PA: Washington Co-4th county death

Hat Tip:Roehl_JC  @ FluTrackers

http://www.pittsburghlive.com/...

By Thomas Olson

The H1N1 virus killed a Washington County woman over the weekend, making her the 18th victim of the so-called swine flu in Western Pennsylvania.

Liza Northrop Beale, 49, died of the virus Saturday, after being hospitalized in Washington County since Nov. 13 with flu-like symptoms, her cousin Tom Northrop said Sunday. He is publisher for Observer Publishing Co., where she worked for the past 25 years.

Beale became the fourth person in Washington County to die of the H1N1 virus, according to the Pennsylvania Department of Health. Eighteen people have died from the H1N1 virus in the seven-county Pittsburgh region, (Continued ...)

www.EmergencyHomePreparation.org -- A 'card-catalog' style of prepping information.   -

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by: Readymom @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 09:50:35 AM CST

WA: Swine flu vaccine open to everyone in Island County

http://www.pnwlocalnews.com/wh...

[note: first I've seen "open to all"]

As of noon today, Dec. 7, Island County Public Health is removing all restrictions on administering the H1N1 swine flu vaccine in Island County

Keep the information coming!

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by: Cathy M @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 13:59:37 PM CST

TN: And here's another one!

Flu vaccines available in Rutherford County

http://www.murfreesboropost.co...

The Rutherford County Health Department, located at 100 West Burton Street in Murfreesboro, is offering H1N1 flu clinics for anyone who has not yet received the vaccine on Tuesday, Dec. 8, Wednesday, Dec. 9 and Thursday, Dec. 10 from 4:30 p.m. until 6:00 p.m.

Comment: So I guess the states are starting to open it up...

Keep the information coming!

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by: Cathy M @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 14:01:20 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yup - definitely a trend...

Vanderburgh County Opens H1N1 Clinics to General Public

http://www.news25.us/Global/st...

VANDERBURGH CO., IN - The Vanderburgh County Health Department has announced they are opening up H1N1 flu vaccine clinics to the general population.

Keep the information coming!

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by: Cathy M @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 14:02:45 PM CST

[ Parent ]

TX: Dallas announced last week, started this morning

Demand was modest this morning as Dallas County for the first time distributed free doses of the H1N1 vaccine to any county residents who wanted them.

Only 17 people were in line at the Dallas County Health Department when it opened at 8 a.m.
http://www.dallasnews.com/shar...

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by: Catte Nappe @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 16:18:45 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Oregon is still on priority only...

I just checked local newspapers... Benton and Multnomah Counties are still just priority lists... I'm gonna keep checking and grab one when I can!

Keep the information coming!

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by: Cathy M @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 17:49:26 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Japan - 70% set to hoard in swine flu crisis

http://search.japantimes.co.jp...

About 70 percent of Japanese are ready to stock up on food if a swine flu emergency is declared and they are ordered to stay at home, according to a recent government survey.

Of the 893 respondents who said food will need to be stocked, the largest group, some 33.0 percent, said they would expect to need about a seven-day supply, according to the survey by the Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries Ministry.

Some 80 percent to 90 percent said they will buy rice, canned foods and wheat-based items, such as instant noodles, if the need arises.

The nationwide survey was conducted on 1,292 people aged 20 and older between mid-September and early October.

Comment Odd question to have asked right now.

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by: UK - Bird @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 14:45:24 PM CST

emergency = mutated H1N1?

I agree its an odd question.

Perhaps its just sensationalism.

Perhaps the undercurrent there is that people are mentally prepping to SIP in the case of a significant H1N1 mutation (or cross with H5N1).

Survey was in sept and oct.  Its december - took a bit long to get out huh?

Maybe just tardy reporting?

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by: nika @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 15:24:31 PM CST

[ Parent ]

"Stock" food is better than "hoard" IMO.

Another paper used a different headline:
70% of Japanese see need to stock food if H1N1 flu spreads

http://www.japantoday.com/cate...

That link shows lots of critical comments about the idea of being scared of the flu and about the survey, including the probability that most households are already prepared in case of earthquakes and floods.  Also, that there's a problem with apartments being too small to store much.  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

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by: Jane @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 18:13:25 PM CST

[ Parent ]

India: 4 more H1N1 deaths in New Delhi, a 5th not counted

NEW DELHI: Four more swine flu patients have died in the Indian capital, taking the total to 34, officials said Monday. But they refused to count a fifth fatality because he was not from Delhi.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes...

"I have come to value liberated minds as the supreme good of life on earth."

epitaph on grave of J. Frank Dobie

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by: Joseph_Roehl_kiwiamerican @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 16:05:59 PM CST

India: Himachal Pradesh confirms 3rd H1N1 death

Shimla: Related ArticlesMost Read ArticlesCold comfort

A 22-year-old pregnant woman today succumbed to swine flu virus at Indira Gandhi Medical College and Hospital in Shimla, recording the first H1N1 death in the state.

This is the third swine flu death of a Himachal resident - the earlier two victims, both residents of Solan, had died in Chandigarh. A total of 188 cases have so far confirmed swine flu positive in the state.

Guddi Devi, a resident of Janjheli in Mandi, was admitted to the IGMC on December 3.

She was under treatment for pneumonia and when she did not respond to the treatment for two days, doctors recommended a swine flu test.

Significantly, though she tested positive on Sunday, the hospital administration and the health authorities did not reveal her status and she continued to remain at the ICU of the medicine department, where five more patients were also undergoing treatment.

http://www.indianexpress.com/n...

"I have come to value liberated minds as the supreme good of life on earth."

epitaph on grave of J. Frank Dobie

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by: Joseph_Roehl_kiwiamerican @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 16:10:50 PM CST

India: 3 more deaths confirmed in Punjab, total either 6 or 8 now

Three persons have died of swine flu in city hospitals in the last 24 hours. All victims are from Punjab.

The deceased are a 45-year-old man from Jalandhar, Harbhajan Singh, a 35-year-old woman from Hoshiarpur, Anju Bala, and 35-year-old man from Baltana, Varinder Kumar.

On Monday, Harbhajan came to PGI in extremely critical condition.

He died half-an-hour after his arrival. Similarly, Bala died 20 minutes after she was admitted in PGI.

Doctors at the hospital said condition of both the patients was severe, and they died before they could be put on ventilator.

The third victim died in Oxford Hospital, Sector 19. He was put on a ventilator for the last three days.

Varinder had tested positive on December 2.

http://www.indianexpress.com/n...

"I have come to value liberated minds as the supreme good of life on earth."

epitaph on grave of J. Frank Dobie

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by: Joseph_Roehl_kiwiamerican @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 16:16:34 PM CST

India: Jaipur counts 4 more deaths, total in Rajasthan state now 77

JAIPUR: With four more persons succumbing to swine flu on Monday, the toll has reached 77 in the state. The total number of H1N1 patients has gone up to 1,934 with 55 fresh cases reported on Monday. Of these, 34 are from Jaipur, including 25 students.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes...

"I have come to value liberated minds as the supreme good of life on earth."

epitaph on grave of J. Frank Dobie

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by: Joseph_Roehl_kiwiamerican @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 17:27:29 PM CST

FL: Two More H1N1 Deaths In Miami-Dade

http://cbs4.com/local/broward....

The Miami-Dade's Health Department has confirmed two more deaths related to the H1N1 virus in the county.

The latest victims were an 85-year-old man and a 21-year-old woman, bringing the total number of deaths in the county attributable to the H1N1 virus to thirty four.

Keep the information coming!

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by: Cathy M @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 18:03:56 PM CST

Experts say flu pandemic could be mildest on record

http://www.chron.com/disp/stor...

With the second wave of H1N1 infections having crested in the United States, leading epidemiologists are predicting that the pandemic could end up ranking as the mildest since modern medicine began documenting influenza outbreaks.
[snip]

The predictions are being met with a mix of skepticism, relief and trepidation: Public health officials worry people may get complacent about getting vaccinated, which could prove disastrous if a third wave of infections swells later this winter or the virus mutates into a more dangerous form.

"I think it is very likely to be the mildest pandemic on record," said Marc Lipsitch, a professor of epidemiology at the Harvard School of Public Health, who led a federally funded analysis with researchers at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and elsewhere published online Monday by the journal PLoS Medicine.

The analysis, based on data collected in New York City and Milwaukee, indicates that the virus might directly cause between 6,000 and 45,000 deaths by the end of the winter, with the final toll probably falling somewhere between 10,000 and 15,000, Lipsitch said.

In the worse-case scenario, the swine flu pandemic would claim no more than about 60,000 lives, Lipsitch's new analysis concluded.

Even if the overall death toll does end up being relatively low, several experts noted that the pandemic has already taken an unusually high tally among children and young adults.

[snip]
The new analysis also indicates that the pandemic's "symptomatic case-fatality ratio" - the percentage of those who become ill that die - has been far lower than the previous three pandemics.

[snip]
To encourage Americans to continue to get vaccinated, Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius on Monday unveiled a new multimedia advertising campaign aimed at countering complacency. After a slow start, more than 80 million doses of vaccine are now available, she said.

[snip]

note: I don't find this type of article helpful... At least they mention that OTHER experts aren't nearly as confident as Lipsitch.. he could have waited until at least until March!

Keep the information coming!

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by: Cathy M @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 18:09:26 PM CST

the data is the data

things could change, but that's where we are at now.

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by: DemFromCT @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 20:56:04 PM CST

[ Parent ]

change

But is the data changing? We have mutations. Is that not what the "experts" have warned us about? That this could change into something with a higher CFR? Hemmoragic lungs, post mortum 135 degree lung temps, France, Utah, Ukrane, Texas, Brazil? Not trying to be alarmist, but there are quite a few parents of dead children who don't think of this flu as "mild". The government is preparing and talking about possible big problems from this virus. I find downplaying the possibilities as slightly irrisponsible.  

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by: JonC @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 22:28:10 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I find downplaying the possibilities as opportunistic.

IMO, this guy just wanted to grab a headline by making this very premature (and more than slightly irresponsible) prediction. Just because someone has some letters behind their name doesn't necessarily make them ethical.

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 22:47:39 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I would highly recommend

reading any work by Marc Lipsitch.  That's the only way to judge any person's credibility.  He's written some of the most insightful and paradigmatic pieces that I've come across, on evolution of outbreaks etc.  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 22:56:33 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Regardless of his writings and his credentials, It's still premature to call it the mildest in history

when there is still sooooo much up in the air regarding this particular pandemic....a spreading and potentially (based on evidence) dangerous mutation which could raise the cfr, and the spreading mutation of tamiflu resistance.

How can anyone justify writing history before the fact?

(Especially when so doing may convince many that vaccination and/or precautions are unnecessary...which, if this virus should become dangerous, could cause many unnecessary deaths.)

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 23:10:40 PM CST

[ Parent ]

I normally

look at the sum total of a person's work, not just one media quote.  Also look at the original paper where possible.  Journalists are notorious for taking comments out of context.  That's just me....


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Wed Dec 09, 2009 at 11:04:59 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Journalists are, that is so true. They also tend to misunderstand and misinterpret the science facts I've noticed. nt

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Thu Dec 10, 2009 at 01:59:50 AM CST

[ Parent ]

are we seeing higher CFRs?

Are hospitals desperately overloaded, in general?  I don't think so.  Any difference we are seeing is within the range of local variations IMO.

The definition of 'mildness' depends on perspective.  From the epidemic POV, given this is an influenza pandemic, it is MILD.  The definition of severity has nothing to do with the severity of an individual case (which is defined as the severity of THAT CASE), but with the overall severity on a population level, ie the CFR.  Right now every single indicator says this is in the order of 0.1% or below.  This is as mild as it gets, as far as pandeic flu goes.

This may change, or it may not.  Good to be vigilant, not good to read too much into things.  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 22:47:57 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Are hospitals desperately overloaded, in general?

I believe some are. My downstairs neighbor is a nurse in a critcal care unit at a TX hospital and she said they are at full capacity. She is working 6-7 days a week. I here her close her door at 5 o' clock in the morning and come home around 6-7 at night. Only one hospital needs to be "overloaded" in the U.S.A for us to have a serious problem during a "mild" pandemic for me to worry if we have a "medium" pandemic or a "Oh S@&*" pandemic. Yeah, Yeah, I know, Don't panic. I feel that I need to shout, "get ready, it may come." Sounds kinda weak.....gotta work on a better shout. Hehe.....

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by: JonC @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 23:19:30 PM CST

[ Parent ]

yes, get ready it may come

My downstairs neighbor is a nurse in a critcal care unit at a TX hospital and she said they are at full capacity. She is working 6-7 days a week. I here her close her door at 5 o' clock in the morning and come home around 6-7 at night.

but this is not the kind of overload I'm talking about.  I'm talking about the kind where they have to use alternate care sites, like school gyms, that was in many pandemic plans.  Or shipping containers in the parking lot, that the UK had to use in one particularly bad flu season.  I'm talking, at the very minimum, about widespread ventilator triage.  Who should be taken off the vent so they can save someone else.  There were lots of those discussions during the planning, but none of those scenarios came to pass, not on any significant scale, touch wood.

Are there shortages here and there?  I'm sure there is.  Are HCWs overworked and hospitals understaffed?  For sure.  That's always a problem.  Most hospitals are at 100% capacity even on a good day.  But the problems plaguing health systems is a different discussion, than the severity of a pandemic.  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 11:12:42 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Tsk, tsk, tsk...

Me shaking my finger at you and TPTB. All of you should wait until the ball game is completely over before announcing the final score.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 23:51:43 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Marc (and I)

were participants in the PCAST report which was criticized for being too lrmist. He cals them as he ses them.

we are talking about where we are today, second wave, and the article is full of 'but things can change', as it should.

But for right now, it is what it is.

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by: DemFromCT @ Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 09:38:45 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Ancient HIV stowaway may hold clue to transmission

http://www.reuters.com/article...

An HIV genetic stowaway that may have come from a related cat virus could help the AIDS virus transmit and replicate in people, U.S. researchers reported on Sunday.

Their finding, which has implications for designing new drugs or a vaccine against the fatal and incurable virus, may also shed light on how other viruses, such as swine flu, spread from animals to people, experts said.

And it also may help explain how an ancient virus came to cause the devastating 25-year-long pandemic of AIDS.

[more]

Keep the information coming!

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by: Cathy M @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 18:14:32 PM CST

China: Local authorities 'could be underreporting'

http://english.people.com.cn/9...

[hat tip Croftsblog]
Nearly 80 percent of respondents in a recent online poll think that local authorities throughout the nation are underreporting the H1N1 pandemic.

Of a total of 2,286 people who were polled in a survey jointly conducted by national English-language newspaper China Daily and major information portal Sohu.com, a strong majority think that there is a lack of correct information about the number of H1N1 flu cases.

[snip]

"This also happens in some other countries as the cases can be too many to count," Feng said.

H1N1 flu cases and deaths have increased rapidly across China this winter. At least 200 people have died so far, according to official statistics.

Some 194 of the deaths were reported in November.

Doubt among those polled comes after Dr Zhong Nanshan, of Guangzhou, capital of Guangdong province, openly accused a number of local governments of intentionally underreporting the pandemic in mid-November.

After widespread media reports on the subject, Mao Qun'an, spokesman for the Ministry of Health, quickly denounced Zhong's statements.

[snip]

Health experts have urged authorities to update the public on the H1N1 pandemic in a more timely fashion.

On Nov 20, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on its website that sporadic cases of an H1N1 mutation have been detected in countries such as Norway, Japan, the United States and China.

The mutation was first reported by several Chinese newspapers on Nov 24 after news outlets confirmed the cases with the WHO Beijing branch office.

The following day, the Ministry of Health held a press conference announcing that a genetic mutation had been detected in eight H1N1 flu cases on the Chinese mainland, with the first sign of the mutation coming in June.  

Keep the information coming!

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by: Cathy M @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 18:21:33 PM CST

PA: (1) New Death on PA DOH Website for 12.07.09-York Co

(1) more fatality has been added to the PA DOH website for 12.7.09 that has not been in news reports.

It is for York (1) county.

PA DOH: http://www.h1n1inpa.com/newsro...
ToTAL Per PA DOH: 61

Adams-1
Allegheny-6
Armstrong-2
Beaver-1
Berks-3
Butler Co-1
Centre- 1
Chester -1
Clearfield-2
Columbia-1
Crawford -1
Dauphin -1
Delaware -1
Erie-1
Fayette-3
Huntingdon-1
Jefferson-1
Lebanon-1
Lehigh-2
Luzerne-1
Mercer-1
Montgomery-4
Philadelphia-14
Pike-1
Potter-1
Schuylkill 1
Tioga 1
Washington-3
York-2  (1 New!)
______________________
TOTAL Per PA DOH: 61
My count: 64

NOTES:

TOTAL Questionable Entries: (3)

Washington Co--(1 entry)-PADeath#63-49y/o LizaN.Beale-Died 12.05.09, not yet on DOH website

Greene Co --(1 entry) Still NOT on DOH website
PADeath#42-(GreeneCo)26y/oKevinBrown-Died 11.09.09

Blair Co  --(1 entry) They still have NOT added in one 'Blair County' death, yet: Per this news report: ("The number doesn't include the two Blair County swine flu patients, whose deaths the department hasn't confirmed were caused by the illness") Source: http://www.altoonamirror.com/p... )

www.EmergencyHomePreparation.org -- A 'card-catalog' style of prepping information.   -

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by: Readymom @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 18:29:47 PM CST

N.Korea: 7 deaths from H1N1 thus far?

Seven swine flu deaths in N.K.  

North Korean schools have started winter vacation a month early due to the rapid spread of the H1N1 virus in the communist country, an aid group said Monday, according to Yonhap News.
Good Friends, a Seoul-based group that frequently visits the North, said North Korean schools started winter recess last Friday following a joint meeting of health and education ministry officials.

Most schools in the North, including colleges, usually start winter vacation in early January.

Quoting a report of city education officials in Pyongyang, the group said seven North Korean youths, including three college students aged 21 and 23, died of the Influenza A virus in Pyongyang in November, while two others reportedly died in Phyongsong, north of the capital.

http://www.koreaherald.co.kr/N...

"I have come to value liberated minds as the supreme good of life on earth."

epitaph on grave of J. Frank Dobie

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by: Joseph_Roehl_kiwiamerican @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 20:59:51 PM CST

Pakistan: confirmation of 1st local death, a doctor/phsiotherapist

LAHORE: A physiotherapist at the Nawaz Sharif Social Security Hospital died of swine flu on Monday, the first death from the virus in the city.

Doctor Iftikhar died at the hospital after seven days of ailment, however, he was diagnosed with the disease only an hour before his death, NSSSH Medical Superintendent Doctor Rahat Fatima told Daily Times.

According to information, she said, Dr Iftikhar got infected from the virus through a sacrificial goat. She quoted Dr Iftikhar's wife as confirming the cause. Senior doctor Dr Javed Akram said two laboratories had confirmed that the cause of the death was swine flu. rana tanveer/afp

Home | National

http://www.dailytimes.com.pk/d...

"I have come to value liberated minds as the supreme good of life on earth."

epitaph on grave of J. Frank Dobie

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by: Joseph_Roehl_kiwiamerican @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 21:01:50 PM CST

Someone correct me if I am wrong......

I think this is the first time we have heard of a goat being infected with H1N1. Pigs, turkeys, ferrets, cats and now a goat. It's all very worrisome.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 23:32:34 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Yes-

I do believe it is. I've been keeping track. This conversation came up over at PFI, and I started a thread to keep track. A goat was not on the list. -k

www.EmergencyHomePreparation.org -- A 'card-catalog' style of prepping information.   -

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by: Readymom @ Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 09:36:48 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Also a cheetah,

and possibly 2 dogs in China (but not much detail on them), according to this report:
http://www.avma.org/public_hea...
Chart of animals, dates, etc., in a pdf.
http://www.usda.gov/documents/...

I didn't see any specific animals mentioned here, but possibly in the future?

OFFLU is the joint OIE-FAO network of expertise on influenza, established in 2005 to support international efforts to monitor and control infections of avian influenza in poultry and other bird species, and to share biological material and data to support early development of human pandemic vaccines.

http://www.offlu.net/
There's a list of publicly available [genetic] databases, if you click on Sharing of Information and Material (in the left-hand column) and scroll down. (By public, they may mean scientists, though.)

btw, the Dept. of Defense has a website for flu information:
http://fhp.osd.mil/aiWatchboar...
FAQs:
http://fhp.osd.mil/aiWatchboar...

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

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by: Jane @ Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 10:57:53 AM CST

[ Parent ]

Canada: Nunavit has 15 new cases, signal of new outbreak wave?

Flu on the rise

Fifteen new, lab-confirmed cases of H1N1 "swine flu" in Nunavut could signal the beginning of the second wave of the outbreak, according to chief medical officer of health Dr. Isaac Sobol.

http://nnsl.com/northern-news-...

(subsription only for full article)

"I have come to value liberated minds as the supreme good of life on earth."

epitaph on grave of J. Frank Dobie

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by: Joseph_Roehl_kiwiamerican @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 21:07:25 PM CST

Who is on the second wave/ third wave?

Would we not be looking at a third wave sometime in Jan/Dec? Or is that up in the air? Has there been a third wave anywhere in the world?  

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by: JonC @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 21:55:45 PM CST

there may not be a third wave

for some time.  Or there may be one.  It may happen in Jan, or it may happen after a whole year.  Every single previous pandemic on record has been different.  The most famous waves from the 1918 pandemic, were actually atypical.  

See this chart from NEJM

and these 2 papers for historical perspectives, of different timescales, both free http://content.nejm.org/cgi/co... and http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pm...


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 22:42:23 PM CST

[ Parent ]

Like the 1918 flu.

To me this seems much like the 1918 flu. No, I am not and expert, but two mild waves then a "oh my God" Wave is what I see as we have seen the D225G mutation. Two mild waves, the second bigger than the first, with a mutation that gives a higher death apon infection with high infection rates. "Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it."-George Santayana:1905

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by: JonC @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 23:00:58 PM CST

[ Parent ]

no, this isn't like 1918

To me this seems much like the 1918 flu.

not even close.   1918 was the most severe pandemic in recorded history.  2009 looks set to become the mildest on record.  Look at the kind of things that happened in 1918 (from Crosby, Barry, Kilbourne, and others), ask yourself, are you seeing anything close to the modern equivalents??

1. all cities in the US, all, ran out of caskets at some point in the fall wave.  And that was at a time when businesses including undertakers had more stocks on hand than in today's just-in-time economy.  Did we come across such stories of overwhelmed mortuary services from anywhere, in 2009?  On a large scale?

2. There were numerous reports of people dying in homes, survivors too weak to feed themselves.  Bodies being collected for mass burial.  Like this, in Philadelphia.  Again, are we seeing mass graves in 2009?

   

3. it caused a 10-12 year loss of life expectancy for all Americans.  See this chart in Nature Medicine http://www.nature.com/nm/journ...

4. it had a CFR of 70+% in some parts of Alaska, Africa, and Pacific islands.  

5. In some places, too many people were ill or dead such that crops were not tended to, and famine happened as a result.  See http://www.newfluwiki2.com/dia...  Are we seeing anything remotely close to this kind of story?  In India?  Philippines?  Iran?  

6. This is the excess mortality curve for the UK for 1918-20,

   

   Whereas for 2009,

   Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in England: an overview of initial epidemiological findings and implications for the second wave

   No excess all-cause mortality (either overall or by age-group) has been observed in Englthrough to the end of September

   

   more here http://www.newfluwiki2.com/dia...

7. Not to mention scenes like this, this, and this

FYI I wrote about a 'mild' pandemic, in 2007, based on a CFR of 0.4%, what it would be like.  The kind of impact on the world.  http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...  Little did I suspect we would see one substantially milder than that, 2 years after I wrote it.  

Like I said, it's good to be vigilant.  But it's also good to call a spade a spade.  Because there are greater risks out there, like H5N1, and if we cannot maintain perspective and credibility, then we will be unable to promote the kind of preparedness and policies needed for that kind of catastrophe.  We are already in danger, IMHO, of people losing interest in all things related to pandemic flu....


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Tue Dec 08, 2009 at 10:59:50 AM CST

[ Parent ]

TX: H1N1: Take it seriously

(snip) I am writing today to urge you to take H1N1 flu seriously, not just as the secretary of the Department of health and Human Services, who has read lots of scientific studies saying this is a young person's pandemic, but also as a mother of two sons who not long ago were sitting exactly where you are today. (snip) No one knows whether this wave of H1N1 will get worse, taper off or be followed by another wave later in the season. http://www.dailytexanonline.co...

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by: JonC @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 22:42:02 PM CST

Please post new news stories to...

News Reports for December 8, 2009

Thank you!

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Mon Dec 07, 2009 at 23:20:17 PM CST