News Reports for July 2, 2012

India: Two more test positive for H1N1 on Sunday (Maharashtra)

Two more persons tested positive for H1N1 on Sunday. One is a four-year-old boy from Khar (Snip).

The other is a 35-year-old man from Powai. "Both patients have been admitted to private hospitals and their treatment has started. Both are stable," (Snip) http://timesofindia.indiatimes...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Mon Jul 02, 2012 at 05:48:51 AM UTC

US: Flu research moratorium important, but somewhat problematic

Many scientists agreed with the decision to implement a moratorium on research designed to find how a nasty strain of bird flu is transmitted and how it might more easily spread.

The University of Georgia's Ralph Tripp was among the more than 30 scientists who backed off in January on researching the spread of the H5N1 influenza virus. But Tripp now believes their efforts to tease out the secrets of bird flu should resume.

"I think we have to recognize that important research requires important steps and measures," said Tripp, whose research is aimed at developing vaccines against flu and other viruses that can be transmitted through the air. (Snip) Viruses like H5N1 are prone to mutate, however, and scientists like Tripp are trying to find out just how easily it might change itself into a form that could become a greater threat to people.

The moratorium originally was planned to last about two months, but has since been extended indefinitely. (Snip)

Releasing the information might encourage others to begin similar research, which could increase the chances of a deadly, artificially created form of the virus being accidentally released outside a laboratory, or terrorists could use the knowledge to create a killer version of bird flu, some on the panel feared.

Once panel members and other federal science administrators understood the high-security conditions in which the two teams conducted their research, fears eased, and their research was finally published (Snip)

"I don't think it had any real immediate bioterror threat. You need a really sophisticated lab," said Andreas Handel, a UGA scientist who does computer modeling of infectious disease dynamics. In the end, the research papers were more about how to stop a massive outbreak of bird flu in humans than they were about starting one. But they did describe how the virus might change into a form that could infect humans. "I think everyone knew it would be possible in principle. This kind of describes how it can happen. There's still a whole lot we don't know," Handel said.

"I don't think it's bad to have a moratorium," Tripp said. "The moratorium really does two things, It allows public opinion to be addressed appropriately, and to see if there are issues we should consider."

But there is a bigger question for scientists in the debate, Tripp said. "What makes it really interesting from a scientific point of view is the ability of someone to say we're going to filter what science gets published," he said. "At the end of the day, it comes down to what you consider to be responsible research."

And according to Tripp and Handel, the H5N1 research, conducted in the right way, is not just responsible - it's vital. "It's important to understand how those viruses can become more easily transmissible," said Handel. And the recently published papers are big steps in understanding those processes, he said.

(Snip)

But what's new in the H5N1 controversy is the claim that society ultimately will benefit from knowing how the virus could be changed so it could spread through the air.
And unlike issues related to the spread of nuclear technology years ago, when we worried about misuse by enemy governments, we now have to worry about terrorists using the knowledge, Bozeman said. "A possible compromise is to publish a 'masked article' giving sufficient information to validate the research, along with assurances of peer reviewers, but leaving out details that would be a recipe for terrorists," he said. http://onlineathens.com/uga/20...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Mon Jul 02, 2012 at 06:08:28 AM UTC

Mexico bird flu contained to 10 farms

MEXICO CITY -- Mexico's avian influenza virus in two municipalities of the central-western state of Jalisco has led to the loss of 870,000 chickens as of Friday but is thought to be contained in 10 poultry farms (Snip)

The H7N3 virus (Snip) was detected in Mexico for the first time this month in Acatic and Tepatitlan, leading officials to take emergency measures such as quarantining farms, evaluating nearby ones and limiting the movement of live poultry to keep the virus from spreading.

(Snip) food-safety service has done more than 4,209 laboratory tests with samples from more than 100 poultry farms and 15 free-range properties. Of the more than 6.12 million animals checked, roughly 1.7 million have been found sick. Continued: http://www.marketwatch.com/sto...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Mon Jul 02, 2012 at 07:02:35 AM UTC

Report of Unusual Influenza B Virus Activity in Florida

July 2, 2012, Posted for mojo, from ProMED
http://biosurveillance.typepad...

We have a report by an astute clinician of unusual levels of influenza B in Orlando, Florida, where Tamiflu is being prescribed at high rates in outpatient clinics.  Employees and visitors to Disney World, Sea World, Universal and Legoland have been reportedly admitted to a local
hospital.  The hospital is described as "full".  We are also hearing report of concern for vaccine failure as well.

Cross-check of official state public health reports for Florida indicate unusual activity for Regions 3, 5, and 7 as of June 19th (i.e. 12 days ago).  The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention closed out their seasonal reporting for influenza on 25 May 2012, therefore there is no current situational awareness or guidance. According to CDC, the 2011-2012 season was associated with an overal
vaccine match of 60%, which they deemed "well matched".  When considered at the local level, one might debate this, as was reported in the Pacific NW [see ProMED archived report listed below].

This now raises the bar of interest for the coming 2012-2013 influenza season and whether we will see unusually early cases in the fall... and whether the strains will indeed be "well matched" to the recommended vaccine.
(snip)

A HealthMap/ProMED-mail map can be accessed at:
http://healthmap.org/r/1yvG

"I am opposed to any form of tyranny over the mind of man."  Thomas Jefferson

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by: History Lover @ Mon Jul 02, 2012 at 17:57:27 PM UTC

China confirms H5N1 bird flu outbreak in Xinjiang

BEIJING, July 2 (Xinhua) -- China's northwestern Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region has reported an outbreak of H5N1 in poultry, the Ministry of Agriculture (MOA) announced Monday. The disease has killed 1,600 chickens raised by the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps (XPCC), a unique economic and semi-military government organization of about 2.5 million people.

A total of 5,500 XPCC-farmed chickens showed symptoms of suspected avian flu on June 20 (Snip) The National Avian Influenza Reference Laboratory Monday confirmed the epidemic was H5N1 bird flu after testing samples collected at the farm (Snip)

Local authorities have sealed off and sterilized the infected area, where a total of 156,439 chickens have been culled and safely disposed of to prevent the disease from spreading. Continued: http://news.xinhuanet.com/engl...

(Note: Anytime the Chinese government admits there is an outbreak of H5N1, I see huge red flags! I always wonder just how bad the situation really is and what they are afraid the foriegn press will find out and expose. I would bet money there is way more to this story than they are telling! JMO)

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Mon Jul 02, 2012 at 18:52:27 PM UTC

UK: DoH guidance for management of flu pandemic related deaths updated

The Department of Health (DoH) has issued updated guidance for management of flu pandemic related deaths.

'Pandemic Influenza: Guidance on the Management of Death Certification and Cremation Certification in a Pandemic' has been updated with the intention of assisting cremation and burial authorities in managing their responsibility for the disposal of remains.

Key features of the update include point III from page eight of the guidebook, which states that legislative amendments will be made to the Cremation Regulations 2008 to introduce a streamlined version of form Cremation 4 and to suspend the requirement for form Cremation 5.

(Snip) burial can still be used as a method of disposal under authorisation by the coroner's burial order or the registrar's disposal certificate. The DoH feels that no changes to these requirements are needed for the purposes of facilitating burial in the context of an influenza pandemic. Continued: http://www.funeralservicetimes...  

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Mon Jul 02, 2012 at 18:59:03 PM UTC

Measuring the uncertainties of pandemic influenza

A major collaboration between US research centers has highlighted three factors that could ultimately determine whether an outbreak of influenza becomes a serious epidemic that threatens national health. The research suggests that the numbers in current response plans could be out by a factor of two or more depending on the characteristics of the particular pandemic influenza.

Researchers from Argonne, Los Alamos, and Sandia National Laboratories, and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, have used sensitivity analysis to uncover the most important disease characteristics pertaining to the spread of infection with an influenza virus. These are: the fraction of the transmission that occurs prior to symptoms, the reproductive number, and the length of each disease stage. Their use of data from past pandemics as well as information on potential viral evolution demonstrates that current response planning may underestimate the pandemic consequences significantly.

"It has become critical to assess the potential range of consequences of a pandemic influenza outbreak given the uncertainty about its disease characteristics while investigating risks and mitigation strategies of vaccines, antiviral drugs, and social distancing measures," explains Jeanne Fair of Los Alamos National Laboratory and her colleagues. The team has used a simulation model and rigorous experimental design with sensitivity analysis to show the extremes of consequences of a potential pandemic outbreak in the USA. The simulation incorporates uncertainty in the evolution and characteristics of the pathogen and differences in the epidemic response, and uncertainties in the sociological response to a pandemic.

Although we are yet to face an H5N1 avian influenza epidemic, the team suggests that they have nevertheless been able to develop a worst-case scenario for all possibilities considering mortality rates and infectiousness based on current knowledge and historical patterns dating back to the 1917-1918 global pandemic. They suggest that a future worst-case influenza pandemic might be up to four times as lethal as the pandemic that occurred towards the end of the Great War. Moreover, their simulation suggests that the use of antiviral drugs may not be as effective as healthcare authorities would hope.

On a positive note, they have found that social distancing could be the most effective way to contain the spread of infection, usefully reducing symptoms by an average of 16% although it will cost 50% more than antiviral use through lost working days and commerce. Continued: http://medicalxpress.com/news/...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

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by: Carol@SC @ Mon Jul 02, 2012 at 19:07:28 PM UTC

Please post new news stories to...

News Reports for July 3, 2012

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by: AlohaOR @ Tue Jul 03, 2012 at 04:04:23 AM UTC