Stock Market--panflu predictor?

Financial folk tend to get "priviledged" information

pertaining just to financial issues (yes insider information is illegal but it goes on all the time.  However, it generally only benefits a few closely related to certain deals).  There may be some traders/brokers/bankers who have good connections with TPTB, but as institutions, most of them likely follow AI like the rest of the world - MSM.  I remember on the old forum there were some internal documents that some big firms had, and I think many have plans in place to cover contingencies (like working from home).  Maybe some of the bigger houses have a person tracking it more closely.  If AI gets more MSM coverage and they think it could effect markets, they will react accordingly.  I suspect that once they think it's a real threat so will much of the rest of the world and it will nose dive rapidly.  Markets move quickly but usually based on similar information released at the same time.  If they were to call clients and pull the plug too early they risk a great deal so they will probably wait to make certain. 

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by: LauraB @ Sat Jan 27, 2007 at 23:50:19 PM UTC

so, that adds up to...

you think the market will lag our other sources of info?

medical information provided is for discussion purposes only and should not be construed as medical advice. if you believe you have a medical problem, consult your practitioner.

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by: Lisa the GP @ Sun Jan 28, 2007 at 00:10:38 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The market will be caught like deer in the headlights. n/t

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

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by: Oremus @ Sun Jan 28, 2007 at 00:41:19 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Speculative investors won't. Watch them. n/t

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by: Edna Mode @ Sun Jan 28, 2007 at 02:17:43 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Markets move quickly . . .

As LauraB notes, market moves are  based on the almost instantaneous dissemination of information, true or not. Strong downward moves in the market can not be interpreted as the start of a pandemic;  those moves will only  reflect the market's "perception" of the start of a pandemic.

Only in retrospect, will we  know if steeply falling markets are "leading indicators" of a true pandemic.

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by: Laidback Al @ Sun Jan 28, 2007 at 01:06:34 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

naughty thoughts

so....the fluwiki could manipulate the market by floating a convincing rumor?

(there are a variety of reasons this would be a Very Bad Thing.  I'm proposing here only a *thought* experiment, ok?)

medical information provided is for discussion purposes only and should not be construed as medical advice. if you believe you have a medical problem, consult your practitioner.

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by: Lisa the GP @ Sun Jan 28, 2007 at 02:36:23 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

A great predicter

The maps in the Indo thread should be enough of a predicter

Tell the truth

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by: Goju @ Sun Jan 28, 2007 at 03:52:56 AM UTC

markets react to events

only if enough people understand the implication of the events.  Sure, if there is really bad news, the markets might react, but at this point, the percentage of institutional investors who know how to respond to such news is insufficient to cause an actual trend.  Put it in another way, the biggest financial crises happen when a large number of investors got the same info and came to the same conclusion at the same time.  If they don't get the info, don't understand it, and/or there is no agreement on how to interpret the news, you will get mixed signals, if any.  At such times, one investor's 'time to cut losses and leave' would be another's 'time to pick up bargains', and you end up with some sort of equilibrium rather than a landslide.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Sun Jan 28, 2007 at 04:04:00 AM UTC

they'll be way behind

I did a brief stint as a temp worker on Wall Street.  The office where I worked was a mid-sized player -- gossip was rampant, but where you make money on gossip is in hearing who has a great deal coming or (more often) who is about to implode (ala the Martha Stewart case). 

I think the market may quickly react when they hear that hundreds are ill somewhere -- but by that time the pandemic is well underway.  The market CAN'T react sooner than that -- a few people sick here or there could be anything -- We fluwikians were very worried about the Karo cluster and Wall Street didn't even hiccup. 

Watching the military MIGHT give a heads up, but I think Wall Street is a complete nonstarter.  Maybe this week there is a drop in investment in Indonesia, but, gee, that one we can see coming.  Tonight we have signs of human cases in Nigeria, but investors in that market are FAR more worried about people sabataging the oil lines.  If investment yanks out of Nigeria, it's because of the problems of corruption and unrest, not because of two bf cases.  So, I think we look elsewhere for the inside scoop.

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by: Olymom @ Sun Jan 28, 2007 at 04:04:58 AM UTC

book Message of the Markets by Ron Insana

I believe thats the title read it so long ago Im not sure. but he made a pretty good case for the markets ability to predict events that effected the markets. So I wouldnt count em out. The very rich and famous have resources available to them that we cant imagine

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by: janetn @ Sun Jan 28, 2007 at 04:42:29 AM UTC

And the very rich have motive to know what's coming down the pike

Watching what individual investors of note are doing in the market will be much more predictive than watching entire firms that manage institutional accounts.

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by: Edna Mode @ Sun Jan 28, 2007 at 13:05:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Not my area of expertise,

but a reliable friend who analyzes the market everyday tells me that the perception of Wall Street is much different from what is actually going on.  He says that the last time shenanigans were pulled like those being done now was right before the crash of 1929.  He says that the real movers leave the Dow indices pretty much alone so that the Market appears fairly stable.  In his words, "One floor below is a barroom brawl that goes on every day".  Therefore I'm not looking for major investors to do anything but try to take a quick and more than likely illegal profit from any pandemic news.

If I had done this on my own, I would have done most of it incorrectly.

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by: Hillbilly Bill @ Sun Jan 28, 2007 at 13:15:25 PM UTC

Special Report for wealth investors

I don't know how to post the link, but there is a report on the internet you can download for free about the economic impact of an "Avian Flu Crisis".  Go to a site like Google and type in these key words: "Sherry Cooper" (author) and "BMO" (security firm) and "Avain Flu".

The report studies what happened after the flu of 1918, and extrapolates what could happen today.  Some interesting facts from 1918 - apparently the gold and silver market fell dramatically, as lots of rings and jewlery were available on the market - - which depressed the commodity prices.

The report was written about 1 year ago - and is an interesting read.  Basically it says that you should be in "cash" so that you can swoop in a pick up cheap stock and property - after most people go backrupt.

There was also a similar report from Smith Barney (a Citibank subsidiary), but I could not find it tonight on my internet search.

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by: City Slicker @ Mon Jan 29, 2007 at 01:57:39 AM UTC

heh! Properties will definitely be cheap once the owners have passed away. n/t

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by: Kelly Phan @ Mon Jan 29, 2007 at 17:48:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

watch the mortality bonds

someone please get the actual quotes for Vita II and Tarjan

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

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by: gs @ Tue Jan 30, 2007 at 01:40:14 AM UTC

Stock Market--panflu predictor

Any thoughts on any possible significance to the 9% slide in Chinese stocks today? Mainstream media has a variety of explanations...just wondering...

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by: LLou @ Wed Feb 28, 2007 at 02:09:07 AM UTC

Re: Stock Market--panflu predictor

No. I don't believe their market moves on news that no one else in the world is privy to. In the last two years, the Chinese markets have doubled in value, and IMHO, this is simply an adjustment period.

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by: Bronco Bill @ Wed Feb 28, 2007 at 02:12:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

chinas stock jig

China changed the percentage reserve their banks must hold to back their investments, reducing the cash available to be loaned out, AND they announced they may implement capital gains taxes.  Since the day before this drop their market was at an all-time high, it seems likely people were wanting to cash out their profits before said profits become taxable.

medical information provided is for discussion purposes only and should not be construed as medical advice. if you believe you have a medical problem, consult your practitioner.

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by: Lisa the GP @ Wed Feb 28, 2007 at 02:42:35 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Stock market--panflu indicator

BB
Thanks for the input. Just watching for what people do--not what they say. Once again this highlights the value of this community: more brains than just mine trying to figure things out.

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by: LLou @ Wed Feb 28, 2007 at 02:19:13 AM UTC