Flu Wiki Forum - Recent Comments

"Good for the goose, good for the gander"

Kobie — Fri, 16 May 2008 10:44:29 GMT

Carol@SC,

Good catch of the morning.

I think they are saying the big labs should get the samples, sequence the gens and then publish the info for all to use.

Making the samples available to all is one thing. Publishing the gene sequence by several labs under WHO funding in double blind tests would be another.

They send the same virus to three different labs and see if they get the same results.

Next question - who gets the victums? Gene sequences are only a starting point. Once you have a drug you need lab rats and then people to test it on. Lots and lots of people, preferably on the order of 100,000.

Thimerisol, and other drugs passed the test on tens of thousands but failed in the real world.

Kobie

Faintly Pandemi Flu Burung with Disinfektan

cottontop — Fri, 16 May 2008 10:41:51 GMT

Faintly Pandemi Flu Burung with Disinfektan

By editorial staff of 15/05/2008 @ 22:21

http://www.infeksi.com/newsdet...

Jakarta: Magna International, the chemical company that concentrated in Singapore, offered the product disinfektan to stifle the spreading of the bird flu virus in Indonesia.

Developed 4.5 last year disinfektan was named the trade in Magna Legionella-X was proven through the testing in the Institute's laboratory of Pertanian Bogor could eradicate the virus H5N1 as far as one hundred percent.

Was different from the antiseptic that was used to living creatures, disinfektan was used for the inanimate object.
For example, to clean pens.

By spraying Magna Legionella-X in his package that was easy to be mentioned, Nelson hoped the chain of the spread of the deadly virus H5N1 could be interrupted.

Agus Setiyono, the pathology expert in the School Of Veterinary Medicine of IPB Bogor said if the process of the testing that was led by him was the standard procedure of a product to be able to be marketed in Indonesia.

Especially his testing disinfektan from Magna, Agus explained, was carried out in the Pelayanan Mikrobiologi Medik Terpadu Unit, Bagian Mikrobiologi Medik, Departemen of Penyakit Hewan Knowledge and the Health of the Veteriner Community, FKH-IPB. Media that was used was the Embrio Egg was pruned.

The eggs played a role received disinfektan that has been added isolat the virus from Tasikmalaya 2005.

Results were observed if disinfektan could kill the virus by means of breaking into the membrane of the virus cell and making his contents be spewed out.
There was no virus cell that could remain/the Interaktif
TIME

Bird flu, the Resident Gandaria Meninggal

cottontop — Fri, 16 May 2008 10:26:23 GMT

Bird flu, the Resident Gandaria Meninggal
By editorial staff of 15/05/2008 @ 22:21

http://www.infeksi.com/newsdet...

Jakarta: For A Long Time did not can be heard not meant bird flu might not have been guarded against.

The village head Gandaria Utara, Kebayoran Baru, of Southern Jakarta, with his apparatus since last Monday destroyed the poultry, especially the chicken belonging to the resident who was still wandering in the inhabitants's environment.

After disembelih, the poultry was afterwards burnt with his pen.
For three days, more than 170 poultries that consisted of the chicken, birds, and the goose were destroyed.

In this district indeed still many poultries that were free to roam about in the middle of the settlement, although being not yet proven had the poultry that contracted the bird flu virus.

However, this was the step in anticipation after a resident was named Siti Istiqomah, on Wednesday 14/5, died and was stated positive bird flu.
Beforehand casualties could be treated for three days in the Persahabatan Hospital.

Now in the last 10 days, the brother Siti that was named Ahmad Rizky also died with the same sign.

This was the first case of bird flu in the Gandaria region.
Whereas the older brother Siti, Alamsyah, that also was treated in RS the Friendship, today is allowed to come home after being stated by the bird flu negative by the team dokter.liputan6.com

Useful blogging links for China

UK - Bird — Fri, 16 May 2008 10:07:16 GMT

The earthquake is an eye opener for how information can and will come out of China when it needs to.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/wor...

Thank you Nimbus :-) n/t

Bronco Bill — Fri, 16 May 2008 08:59:26 GMT

AGAIN AND AGAIN BIRD FLU claimed two lives

Influentia2 — Fri, 16 May 2008 08:29:18 GMT

Despite recent times the quiet media has reported bird flu, but has arrived arrived the illness that was caused by the poultry virus to claim two lives of the sibling older brother Istiqomah, 16 years, and his brother of Ahmad Rizki, 15 years, the resident Street Dwijaya IV, Radio Dalam, of Southern Jakarta.
According to the father from the two casualties, Mahbud, Istiqomah was stated positive bird flu after being treated overnight.
Mahbud said, last May 1 fortune complained was sick.
His body was hot, the tip of hands fingertips and foot blue blue.
Fortune was afterwards carried to the Yakriza Clinic, Tanah Kusir.
His diagnosis was affected was sick typhus, he said.
The third day, fortune was carried to the Prikasih Hospital, Pondok Labu.
Results rontzen showed the condition for the left lung lungs fortune has been very serious.
With the diagnosis of typhus of the hospital side offered the special maintenance at a cost of early Rp 5 million.
We did not have money, then fortune was brought by us came home, complained Mahbud.
Finally fortune blew out the last breath on Sunday, on May 4 around struck 05,30 WIB.
Sepeninggal Rizki, Istiqomah showed was sick with the sign that be the same as was sick his brother.
Istiqomah appetite descended, the tip of the finger turned blue and his breath was crowded.
He could be carried to RS Gandari and was treated two nights there.
RS Gandaria reconciled Istiqomah to RS Persahabatan, Rawamangun.
Unfortunately, medical help could not maintain the life of the girl.
The team's member of the control doctor of bird flu of RS Persahabatan, Priyanti, said, Istiqomah positive was affected by bird flu.
He suffered hot was accompanied by the cough and breathless.
Priyanti explained, the photograph toraks him also showed the sign of pneumonia.
Priyanti also stated at this time RS Persahabatan was treating Alamsyah, 26 years, the older brother from Istiqomah.
Despite results of the beginning inspection of results of the negative, but the hospital side did not want to take the risk.
Moreover the sign that was suffered by Alamsyah resembled the bird flu sufferer.
We were waiting for results of the second inspection, he said.
In the meantime the Sub- Dinas Kesehatan Head of the Southern Jakarta Community Dr Togi Asman S explained, his side knew bird flu information that attacked Istiqomah.
Togi said, his side already menginvestigasi from the bird flu.
However as far as this is concerned the official still could not find the source of the spread of the illness.
Their residence territory, said Togi, high risk bird flu.
The neighbour around casualties's house had several that maintained the poultry.
Beforehand had the poultry that died, although not dying suddenly, he said.
Depopulation of the poultry in Street Dwijaya then was carried out by Togi since last Tuesday.
At least 100 poultries were burnt.

Kamis, 15 Mei 2008 @ 15:16:26

http://www.bkkbn.go.id/news_de...

Both siblings were school age so if this is H2H and they were attending school

maryinhawaii — Fri, 16 May 2008 06:39:55 GMT

while infectious, this could be a problem.

and, I've said all I intend to say

SusanC — Fri, 16 May 2008 06:01:36 GMT

on this subject. So I may not make more comments unless there are some additional points to make.

Have to save time to do other things. ;-) Got a flight to catch tomorrow too...

here's what I wrote earlier about this issue

SusanC — Fri, 16 May 2008 05:58:15 GMT

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

Bad behavior in the world of flu science

Carol@SC — Fri, 16 May 2008 05:22:51 GMT

Last week WHO's flu maven, Keiji Fukuda, said what we and others have been saying for a long time. Flu scientists need to change their research ethics. The world of flu virology has developed a mandarinate that is impeding progress for its own benefit. And their bad behavior is enabled and imitated by some public health agencies, like CDC. Researchers and CDC are sitting on H5N1 genetic and other flu sequences of public health importance. They treat their data as proprietary, to be used for their own benefit in scientific publications.

This isn't unusual. It is the normal way of doing academic science. But when it comes to research on one of the major global public health problems this is no longer acceptable. And WHO is saying so, gently but clearly:

Current international research is highly competitive and the results of studies are often held back pending publication, which could delay their usefulness in a public health emergency, WHO officials said. Keiji Fukuda, coordinator of WHO's global influenza programme, said that more sharing of research was required, as happened informally between experts during the deadly SARS epidemic in 2003 which spread from southern China to Canada.

"In developing a WHO public health research agenda (on influenza) we are trying to push for a paradigm change," Fukuda told the final session of a four-day WHO meeting on bird flu.

"What we hope to improve is the kind of sharing and flow of information and take it to another level," he said. (Reuters) (Snip)

(Snip) Research on pandemic influenza is a matter of urgency and timeliness and their aren't nearly enough hands working on it. If the sequences are made available then many more scientists can be mining the data, not just the ones connected to the big labs. Continued: http://scienceblogs.com/effect...

(Note: So why isn't WHO being as open with sharing the virus? They want everyone else to share but they aren't going to do the same? What a load of manure!)

Good day on my bike

JonC — Fri, 16 May 2008 04:20:01 GMT

tomorrow is bike to work day. I rode past a gas station here in Texas and gas was $3.70 a gallon. The bike shops here are selling out of commuter bikes. I repeat, I am not a bike nut, but I have to admit I am becoming one as I have lost 40 lbs. in 8 months and feel really good and independent. I am in my 40's. Now if I can only find a way to go faster. maybe a sail. He He.

Walet cultivation

mojo — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:51:57 GMT

On Friday, May 16 2008
had Regional Regulations, but the Municipal Government Not Peduli
the Walet
cultivation

Pontianak,- Several Pontianak inhabitants complain about mushroomed him the swiftlet cultivation dipemukiman densely-populated.

Apart from being worried tertular the bird flu virus, the resident also claimed felt bising with voices that were caused the house walet.

At this time, the resident was disturbed by kibisingan that was caused the house walet that.

Moreover, now many houses walet just that stood, said Syarif Muhammad Arfandi, delegation of the resident Street Tanjungpura ended carried out the meeting to the Commission of A DPRD Kota Pontianak, on Wednesday (14/5).

This meeting discussed the resident's unrest on the house establishment walet just that increasingly was not controlled.

Syarif Muhammad Arfandi menilia the Government of the City (the Municipal Government) did not want to care would the problem that was caused by the swiftlet.

Because of having the Daerah Regulation (Regional Regulations) the number 13 in 2006 about the supervision, the control and the businessman of the swiftlet cultivation in the area of the Pontianak city, and the Wali Regulation of the City (perwal) the number 18 years 200.7 about the regulation of permission of the swiftlet cultivation.

In Regional Regulations and perwal that, was arranged firmly the businessman was forbidden to establish the house walet just dipemukiman densely-populated in a radius of 5 kilometre.

Whereas to the businessman that already established the house walet, must arrange his permission.
When not in accordance with the rule, certainly the Municipal Government must tear down him.
Necessarily with Regional Regulations 13/2006 and Perwal 18/2007, the Municipal Government could act, sebalikj him not allowed, obviously he.

He explained, along Street Tanjungpura in several alleys many beridiri the house walet just.
This dinggap him was strange, if the Municipal Government did not know, or quite deliberate closed his eyes would that.

In the meantime, Komisi A DPRD Kota Pontianak Chairman, Idul Adha SH, said, his side will follow up the resident's complaint by carrying out the direct visit kelapangan.
In the near future, the A Commission will carry out the direct visit to several points, to see directly the problem that was dealt with by the community, said Idul Adha after receiving delegation of the resident.

Although Regional Regulations 13/2006 would effective was current on November 25 this year, said Edo the close Idul Adha greeting, necessarily the Municipal Government went through the related agency has banned the founding of the house walet just.
http://www.pontianakpost.com/b...

The resident Sihepeng hindered the Extermination

mojo — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:38:51 GMT

The resident Sihepeng hindered the Extermination of Flu Burung
on Friday, 16-05-2008

Was like this it was proposed the Head of the Keswan Field and Kemavet Dinas Peternakan Madina, drh Badli, on Tuesday (13/5) in his office.

According to him, the extermination of the poultry in the village was Peternakan Madina Service efforts in interrupting the distribution link of the virus of Afian Influenza (AI) that attacked since last April 24.

This considering, the sample of several chickens that died suddenly this menunjukan the virus kind A5, some sub the AI virus was classified as cruel was positive.

The extermination activity of the resident's livestock that dilakasanakan on Sunday night and on Monday night (on May 11-12) all over the Sihepeng Village that dilakasanakan the Peternakan Madina Service, still terkendala by the resident's attitude that did not want to hand over his livestock.

They brought the poultry that still was small.
In fact, necessarily all the poultries were destroyed, beginning with the chicken, the duck, the dove and birds, he explained.

From two nights of the extermination activity that were carried out, said Badli, totalling 2,040 tails of the chicken, the duck, birds and the chicken doll that just hatched, was destroyed.

Despite this, he continued, the number that was destroyed that not yet until half of the total number of the poultry population in the Sihepeng Village.

Was based on the count data that was carried out some time before, the poultry population in the Sihepeng Village reached 5 thousand tails, he said.

Beforehand, Section Head Peternakan Madina, drh Muslih Lubis estimated, the resident Sihepeng considered the bird flu virus was not too dangerous to humankind.

Moreover, the resident also stated pity against the chicken that was destroyed.

Moreover, the extermination of the livestock was gazed at by the resident was the same as the slaughter of the livestock, he stressed.

However, he was optimistic could carry out the extermination of the poultry in the village.

http://www.medanbisnisonline.c...

Faintly the Bird Flu Pandemic with Disinfektan

mojo — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:30:33 GMT

Faintly the Bird Flu Pandemic with Disinfektan
on Thursday, May 15 2008 | 19:47 of WIB

The Interaktif TIME, Jakarta: Magna International, the chemical company that concentrated in Singapore, offered the product disinfektan to stifle the spreading of the bird flu virus in Indonesia.

Developed 4.5 last year disinfektan was named the trade in Magna Legionella-X was proven through the testing in the Institute's laboratory of Pertanian Bogor could eradicate the virus H5N1 as far as one hundred percent.

This our efforts to help the individual, the hospital and the chicken breeder to control the pandemic, said Nelson Cheng, Magna International Pte Ltd Singapore CEO, in his press information early of this week.

Was different from the antiseptic that was used to living creatures, disinfektan was used for the inanimate object.
For example, to clean pens.

By spraying Magna Legionella-X in his package that was easy to be mentioned, Nelson hoped the chain of the spread of the deadly virus H5N1 could be interrupted.

Results will be attached to get the number of the registration from the Department of Agriculture, he said this afternoon while ascertaining his institute's independence.

The eggs played a role received disinfektan that has been added isolat the virus from Tasikmalaya 2005.

The resident of the Hair

mojo — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:26:47 GMT

The resident of the Hair asked Dispertan to descend tangan
the Death of the poultry continued bertambah
Sukoharjo (Expose) the Death of the poultry in the Sumberagung Hamlet, Kunden, Bulu, Sukoharjo, continued to improve(increase).

The resident demanded the Sukoharjo Regional Government to intervene handled the case of the death of the poultry suddenly this.

After several days ago, dozens of tails of the chicken belonging to the resident died suddenly, on Thursday (15/5) two the chicken belonging to the resident also was found died.

The owner of the chicken, the resident RT 2/I Sumberagung, the Hendra Rukmana Echo, 21, said, before dying, the two chickens did not show signs were sick, but around struck 10,30 WIB, the two poultries were found died in the page of the house.

The morning around struck 08,20 WIB when being given by me ate, this chicken appeared healthy like the previous day, but around struck 10,30 WIB was found by me has not bernyawa in the page of the house.

Several the previous day, my three chickens also died.
I worried let us hope not this poultry was attacked by bird flu because of dozens of poultries belonging to the neighbour also many that died suddenly since a last week, said he when being met Expose in his residence, on Thursday (15/5).

To avoid the death to the other chicken, the Echo be forced menyembelih one tail of his property poultry that still was living.

The echo says, up to now did not yet have the assurance of the status of the deadly illness of dozens of poultries in the two hamlets.

So that clear, according to him the Pertanian Service (Dispertan) Sukoharjo must as soon as possible carry out the laboratory test.

We as the lay community did not yet know true whether the poultry that died suddenly was attacked by bird flu or not, but better Dispertan as soon as possible descended to the field did the cheque and took the sample of the poultry that died furthermore was tested the laboratory, said he.

The same
treatment

According to the Echo, the incident in Sumberagung and Kepuh could not be regarded as the normal incident, his article the sudden death of the chicken did not only happen to one or two tail, but tens.

The similar matter was said by the resident RT 2/III Kepuh, Temon, 42.

He asked Dispertan to carry out the cause inspection of the death of the poultry and spraying against all the chicken coop belonging to the resident Kepuh.

On Wednesday (14/5-red) UPTD Pos Kesehatan of the Animal (the Keswan Post) Sukoharjo indeed carried out the chicken inspection and spraying of the pen in the Sumberagung Hamlet.

However the Kepuh Hamlet did not yet get the same treatment, so as big the possibility of following many chickens died.
Was separated, Kepala Desa (Kades) Kunden, Lagiyo said similar.

According to him Dukuh Kepuh and Sumberagung were not enough to be scolded used disinvektan, but must until the stage of the laboratory test by Dispertan.

We did not yet know whether the deadly illness of dozens of chickens the bird flu kind, but how also Dispertan must intervene mumpung did not yet have human casualties, he stated.

Lagiyo added, the inspection and spraying that were carried out by UPTD Pos Keswan Sukoharjo yesterday ineffective and thorough.

The proof is, according to him still had the poultry that died.
Lagiyo untangled, the possibility that the reason for the inspection and the injecting that were carried out by the Keswan Post was not carried out spread everywhere, but only some.
http://www.solopos.co.id/sp_se...

The Governor asked Disnakkanla the Poultry Data

mojo — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:20:05 GMT

The Governor asked Disnakkanla the Poultry Data in Gandaria

The photograph: Dok.beritajakarta.com

Special Capital District of Jakarta Governor, Fauzi Bowo, asked for the Peternakan Perikanan Service, Kelautan (Disnakkanla) did inventerisasi the available poultry around the Siti Istiqomah residence, the resident of the District of Gandariautara Southern Jakarta that died resulting from the bird flu virus or avian influenza (AI), on Wednesday (14/5).

I asked not only the Kesehatan Service that moved, but also the Service (Disnakkanla) immediately held stocktaking, available poultry data collection around the house of bird flu casualties in Gandaria, said Fauzi Bowo, in the town hall, on Thursday (15/5).

Moreover, said the governor, if being needed in accordance with Pergub No 15/2007 about the Implementation of the Control of the Maintenance and the Circulation of the Poultry, then the radius 500 metre from the house of bird flu casualties was carried out by the extermination of the poultry.

As is known, Siti Istiqomah (16) the resident of the Gandariautara District, Southern Jakarta, that suffered bird flu, had finally died, on Wednesday morning (14/5) around struck 07,00 of WIB. Sebelumnya Siti could receive the maintenance for three days in RS Persahabatan Jakarta Timur.
Before being sentenced suffered bird flu, Siti could take medicine to RS Gandaria because of being expected suffered typus resulting from the high fever.

Because his fever will never descend, the couple's child the Lover (60) and Aisyah (54) this immediately was reconciled to RS Persahabatan.

From results of the intensive inspection, was known if Siti suspect bird flu.

The case was in this Gandariautara District indicated because of the number of residents who still was maintaining the poultry.

Moreover, many wild poultries that died suddenly and were allowed just like that in the street.
Necessarily, the poultry that died suddenly was destroyed by means of being burnt then was stockpiled.

The echo of Henry Wicaksono, Kasie Kesehatan of the Animal and the Health of the Veteriner Community (Keswan Kesmavet) Sudin Peternakan Perikanan, and Marine Southern Jakarta said, Siti died because of having several pigeons that died suddenly close to his house environment.

The community around also reported the existence of the poultry that died suddenly in this region.
Unfortunately, the birds carcass that died suddenly this only was left alone just like that.

Because of the incident, Sudin Peternakan Perikanan, and Marine South Jakarta immediately did sweeping the poultry in this region.

Results, totalling 100 chickens, 34 pigeons, two geese, and two entog immediately was destroyed, he said.
Apart from destroying the poultry, said he, the resident around also immediately was checked his blood as the anticipation action tertular the virus H5N1 this.

From results of the laboratory inspection, all of them were stated healthy, there is none that tertular the deadly virus.

The action sweeping the poultry not only was carried out by Sudin Peternakan and South Jakarta fisheries, the Gandariautara District side also followed the same step.
From results sweeping district apparatus, found 141 chickens, 47 birds and 7 ducks, from 21 pens and immediately was destroyed.

http://www.beritajakarta.com/V...

May 16 News diary is ready! n/t

Nimbus — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:19:43 GMT

Please post new articles to the May 16 News diary

Nimbus — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:18:25 GMT

News Reports for May 16

Thank you!

370 poultries

mojo — Fri, 16 May 2008 03:15:12 GMT

15-05-2008
370 poultries and 66 Dimusnahkan
pens
The photograph: Dok./beritajakarta.com

The Siti Istiqomah death (16) the resident Gandariautara that became bird flu casualties to tamparan hard the Government of the City (the Municipal Government) Southern Jakarta in dealing with the circulation of the poultry in his territory.

Did not want robbed, the South Jakarta Municipal Government direct mengelar the action sweeping in RW 01, 03, 07, and 08 Gandariautara districts.

From four points of this poultry of the circulation danger, the official succeeded in destroying 370 poultries and 66 pens.

Unfortunately, the action sweeping this was still lax because the owner of the poultry that refused to be destroyed was still being given by tolerance for two days to destroy or sell him.

In fact in accordance with the provisions, if having the poultry that died suddenly, then the poultry in a radius of one kilometre must be destroyed.

This step, to anticipate the bird flu virus spread to the other territory.
In fact, the action sweeping has been carried out since last Monday (12/5).

Sweeping this was that was third his time was spread out the South Jakarta Municipal Government.
Sweeping this was concentrated in RW 01, 03, 07 and 08 in the Gandariautara District and involved dozens of officials from the Dinas Peternakan Ethnic Group and South Jakarta fisheries.

Mundari, Lurah Gandariautara, said this action was the continuation from the action beforehand.
Today, succeeded in destroying 370 poultries that consisted 233 pigeons, 130 chickens, and seven ducks.
66 pens also at once were burnt by us, he stressed, on Wednesday (15/5).

Unfortunately, this preventive action received the opposition from some owners of the poultry.
They equivocated, that his kept poultry in the healthy and valuable condition very expensive so as love if being destroyed.

Responded to this, Mundari admitted, his side gave tolerance for the owner who denied his poultry was destroyed.
Given by time two days to evacuate his poultry from this Gandariautara Region.

If still was would we took forcibly, he stressed.
The protest was sent by Eddy that kedapatan maintained 12 dove birds in his house.

He chose, evacuated his pet animal outside the city.
These birds were expensive, because often took part in the contest of the pigeon race.

It would be better if was moved to your house in Sukabumi than was destroyed, he said.

However had also the supportive resident the firm action the official.
Like that was said by Risky the local resident who was supportive this action.

Penyisiran this poultry, definitely could make the resident to be freest from bird flu.
My two birds of the turtle-dove kind also took part in being carried by the official, who was important the environment became safe and healthy, he accused.
http://www.beritajakarta.com/V...

Panic buying

Goju — Fri, 16 May 2008 02:52:50 GMT

will occur no matter if borders are closed or not. Once word gets out what a pandemic will do to the supply chain.....

Better to try to stop the international spread than worry about losing afew bucks due to border closings.

If everyone just went home for a few weeks when a case appears in a community we could stop it in its tracks.

wiki's down

DemFromCT — Fri, 16 May 2008 02:30:47 GMT

due to a server issue.

workin' on it...

Do pathogens face a virulence-transmissibility trade-off?

Jane — Fri, 16 May 2008 02:13:28 GMT

Hat-tip to Aeolus on PFI
---
from Aeolus' post on PFI
http://www.singtomeohmuse.com/...
...When a disease
first enters a new host, it can be
far from the optimum point on the
virulence-transmissibility tradeoff
curve. Its early evolutionary
trajectory may be contingent on
mutation supply and thus very hard
to predict: virulence might decline,
but could also initially rise....

Link to his website and the original article:
An evolutionary biologist considers the virulence of emerging infectious diseases
C. T. Bergstrom
Nature 453: 261

Original article:
http://octavia.zoology.washing...
---
I didn't find Bergstrom's article in Nature, but this is from the original
...H5N1 has not established itself in the human population, but the obvious fear is that it can do so and maintain its high mortality rate, at least during its first round of global spread. The invasion threshold perspective is thus especially relevant here. Ewald has used the public media to argue that the virulence of H5N1 will quickly evolve to low levels, should it invade (Orent 2005); this view has not been widely accepted (Normile 2005), and the perspective of this paper is that, even if the H5N1 optimum in humans is low virulence, the epidemic could have devastating effects before it neared the viral optimum....

Link to original article:
http://www.blackwell-synergy.c...
---

just tried to get on the Wiki and could not connect n/t

LMWatBullRun — Fri, 16 May 2008 00:54:55 GMT

yep, reducing travel certainly slows things down

SusanC — Fri, 16 May 2008 00:04:44 GMT

but there is a difference in policy terms, between discouraging travel and shutting down borders completely. Like 100%, nothing in, nothing out. For many weeks. In which case methinks this is what will happen. Do you have solutions to those issues?

That is the question.

Like I said, many interventions do bring some benefit, but can you deal with the costs? And can you get agreement with government and businesses and those dependent on critical supplies and a whole lot of other people, and convince them this is the way to deal with a pandemic? Cos unless you personally are in a position to impose this policy, you DO have to negotiate with the rest of your countrymen, you know.

I don't support it, but nothing is stopping anyone from advocating it either. But I still see it as high-cost, low-benefit, and very low in acceptability to too many stakeholders. I'm not willing to spend my time and energy on it. Your mileage of course can differ.

NZ - O'Connor to travel to Geneva for health meetings

Kobie — Fri, 16 May 2008 00:01:11 GMT

Story
Associate Health Minister Damien O'Connor leaves for Geneva, Switzerland today to attend a number of health meetings.

On Sunday 18 May Mr O'Connor will attend the Commonwealth Health Ministers' Meeting. The purpose is for health ministers from countries within the Commonwealth to meet in advance of the World Health Assembly.

As well as providing a forum for Ministers to discuss Commonwealth health issues, the theme of the meeting is "e-health" and discussions will include e-health policies, practices and related challenges.

On Monday 19 May to Wednesday 21 May Mr O'Connor will attend the World Health Assembly. The Assembly has a wide ranging agenda but the primary focus of the New Zealand delegation will be on preparedness for pandemic influenza, prevention and control of non-communicable diseases including smoking related cancers, obesity and diabetes. Strategies to reduce the harmful use of alcohol will also be discussed, as will climate change and its potential effects on health.

source
http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories...

Note Pandemic the first on the list - that is progress.

At Intervals of 10 days, Younger Brother Died With Damaged Lungs

History Lover — Thu, 15 May 2008 23:59:01 GMT

At Intervals of 10 days, Younger Brother Died With Damaged Lungs
http://www.jawapos.co.id/index...
May 16, 2008, Hat-Tip bgw in Mt
An unlucky fate was experienced by the older brother Istiqomah, 16, and his younger brother, Ahmad Rizki, 14. The residents of Street Dwi Wijaya IV RT 12/01 the number 89, Gandaria North, Kebayoran Baru, Southern Jakarta were sadly killed by seriously broken lungs. Istiqomah was stated positive bird flu whereas Rizki was negative. Aisyah, 52, appeared dejected. The mother of 12 children in no way supposed that this May day will become the greyest in the history of her life. This was a touching sorrow that had not been imaginable beforehand. How was it that her two beloved children were killed at only intervals of 10 days. Really tragic. Ahmad Rizki, the 11th child, died in the saddening condition. His lungs experienced damage, phlegm was everywhere. However, after being treated for several days at RS Persahabatan Jakarta Timur, the student in Class 3 SMPN 240 was bird flu negative.

"I was very sad." In fact a day again, Rizki was to have taken part in the National Exam, said Aisyah with trickling tears. The mother of casualties of the bird flu virus, Aisyah, 52, said that she really was stricken with the deaths of her 10th and 11th children. The distance was close and both of them too fast left the family.

On Wednesday (14/5) around 06,50 yesterday, the bird flu virus casualty, namely Istiqomah, 16, a class student in the Senior High School of Manaratul Islam, a resident of Jl.Dwi Wijaya IV, RT 12/1, No.89, the District Gandaria North, Kebayoran Baru, Southern Jakarta, blew out his last breath in RS.Persahabatan. But Rizki was bird flu virus negative. On the other matter of his older brother, Istiqomah, "The RS. Persahabatan doctor said that Istiqomah died, because he was infected with the bird flu virus," said an employee in the Singapur Young Taufu restaurant.

Last week, the situation of Rizky, a student in Class 3 SMPN 240, was protracted fever, coughing and breathless. Rizky was carried to the Jak Riza Clinic, then was brought to the Clinic Vila Sawo. Because Rizki's fever did not descend, Rizki was referred to RS.Prikarsih, Pondok Labu. However in the Prikarsih Hospital the family must give DP as much as Rp.5 million. Because of the high cost and squeezed by economics, the family brought Rizki. On Sunday (4/5) at 00,30, finally Rizki died. The hospital x-ray results showed that one of Rizki's lungs were damaged. Well, while he was still in RS, Istiqomah said Iis was still feeding his brother Rizki. After the death of Rizki, Iis began to experience the high fever. Then, Iis, the 10th child from the working couple, Mahbud and Aisyah, was carried to RS.Gandaria. However with an increasingly high fever, Iis' body stamina increasingly descended. Iis was referred to RS. Persahabatan Rawamangun, Jakarta Timur. Unlucky, yesterday at 06,50, Iis, a student in the Senior High School of I Manaratul Islam Aliyah, blew out his last breath. According to hospital officials, Iis' body was put in the case, and Sanusi signed a Power of Attorney that said if Iis was positively infected the bird flu virus. The bird flu virus casualty's family in no way was affected by the cost.

"The RS personnel did not have the family or the other person open the case," said the casualty's older brother Sanusi.

Now the casualty's older brother, Alamsyah, 26, is experiencing a fever. Until now Alamsyah is being treated in RS.Persahabatan. After being checked twice, Alamsyah was negative for infection with the bird flu virus. In the meantime, according to casualties's family, behind the house there was a chicken coop, but it did not have any contents. Moreover in and around the environment of casualties's house, there were no residents who maintained poultry. After the Iis trip, the family, relatives, teachers and school friends paid a sorrowful visit of condolence that was located in an alley in Jl.Dwi Wijaya, Gandaria Utara. To the RS.Persahabatan personnel, the family of bird flu virus casualty Iis said thank you, because for 24 hours, they treated the casualty Iis.

UK - Green and Red

Kobie — Thu, 15 May 2008 23:58:14 GMT

Story Snip
When assessing what is happening in the housing market everyone from government departments to investment banks take a relatively short term view - usually only back as far as 1990 and the last price crash. To get to grips with true nature of the private housing market in the UK - and to some extent the housing market in the rest of the developed world - we need to go back to 1919. Following the First World War and the influenza pandemic there was a large spike in the birth rate (the first, but sometimes overlooked, baby boomers). These children reached an age when they themselves were starting families at the end of the Second World War. Up until this point they had been living with their parents, with friends in flats or in army barracks. In the late 1940s additional pressure was placed on the housing supply by Polish ex-servicemen and refugees (250,000 of these) and other East European refugees as well as German (24,000) and Italian POWs who decided to settle in the UK rather than return home. The need for addition housing sparked the first post war building boom.

Source
http://www.carbonfree.co.uk/cf...

Note If birth control supplies fail during SIP or too many kids are left alone at home with no school.... well you see my thinking. Possibly just in time for second wave too.

UK - GP practices across the UK will not lose out financially in the event of an influenza pandemic.

Kobie — Thu, 15 May 2008 23:55:21 GMT

Story
The agreement between the GPC and NHS Employers announced last week ensures that should practices respond to a pandemic emergency, they will not be disadvantaged if some or all routine GMS work needs to be suspended.

Their NHS income would be protected in line with the previous year's earnings and any pre-agreed uplift.

Income protection would start as soon as a pandemic was declared nationally (UK alert levels 2 or 3) and would be reviewed every three months.

GPC chairman Dr Laurence Buckman said: 'This agreement provides the necessary stability to allow GPs to get on with the job of treating sick patients.'

Source
http://www.healthcarerepublic....

Note Subscription needed for full article. I wonder if they know how much they are in for?
Wonder if the doctors will be working alone or if others will be paid?

Restricting air travel may slow spread of flu

Goju — Thu, 15 May 2008 23:42:20 GMT

Restricting air travel may slow spread of flu
New York Janice Tanne

http://bmj.bmjjournals.com/cgi...

If an epidemic of avian influenza becomes likely, restricting airline travel might slow the spread of the disease and buy time for preventive measures, claims a study by American researchers. They showed that the spread of ordinary flu in the United States was delayed by the interruption in air travel after the attacks of 11 September 2001.

The World Health Organization and the US government are considering restricting air travel if an epidemic of H5N1 bird flu should occur.

In the study, which was published on 12 September in the online journal PLOS Medicine (doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.0030401), the authors used data on flu mortality from the US Centers for Disease Control for nine regions of the country during nine flu seasons from 1996-7 to 2004-5. Previous investigations had relied on simulations, not actual data.

"The more domestic travel, the faster [the] flu spread. The more international travel, the earlier flu appeared," said the lead author, John Brownstein, of the informatics programme at the Children's Hospital in Boston.

His colleague, Kenneth Mandl, also of the Children's Hospital, said that flu had an incubation period of about four days and was spread by people who were incubating flu or were already ill rather than through transmission on planes.

In the US the volume of international air travellers during September most strongly predicts the peak of flu, indicating that September is the most important month for the introduction of foreign flu strains.

The US thanksgiving holiday in late November is usually the busiest period for domestic air travel and a time when new flu strains often spread across the country.

After the September 2001 attacks, planes in the US were grounded for three days. Although the ban on air travel was lifted soon after the attacks, international and domestic air travel was depressed and remained depressed in 2002.

In the first five flu seasons studied, mortality peaked around 17 February. But in the 2001-2 flu season (after the September attacks) the peak did not occur until 2 March. The peak was similarly delayed in 2002, but in subsequent years it gradually moved back towards the 17 February date as the amount of air travel increased to the level before the attack.

Data from WHO and the Centers for Disease Control showed that in the 2001-2 flu season it took 53 days for flu to spread across the United States, 60% longer than the usual time of 33 days.

The numbers of flu and pneumonia deaths in the 2001-2 flu season were below average, but the difference was not statistically significant. "Because of 9/11, fewer people travelled and thus flu took longer to spread across the country and caused about the same number of deaths [as in other years]. The implication is that while flight restrictions would delay and slow the spread of flu, other control measures will also be necessary to mitigate the impact of a pandemic," Dr Brownstein told the BMJ.

The importance for the spread of flu of the decline of air travel is also shown by comparison with the experience in France, the authors say. In France there were no flight restrictions in 2001 and no delay in the peak of flu activity.

Grounding of 9/11 flights delayed flu season: study

Goju — Thu, 15 May 2008 23:39:20 GMT

http://www.cbc.ca/health/story...

Last Updated: Tuesday, September 12, 2006 | 12:17 PM ET
CBC News
The arrival of flu season was delayed when air traffic stopped after the Sept. 11 attacks, a finding that suggests a ban on air travel could buy valuable time in the event of a pandemic, a study's authors say.

Researchers in the U.S. studied influenza seasons for nine regions in the U.S. between 1996 and 2005.

John Brownstein says restricting air travel could delay the arrival of a pandemic flu, giving healthcare workers more time to prepare.
(CBC)
Study author John Brownstein of Children's Hospital Boston and his colleagues looked at how flu spreads between cities and regions and calculated the rate of spread each year.
In the years before 9/11, flu deaths in the U.S. tended to peak around Feb. 17, the researchers reported in the journal PLoS Medicine.

In the flu season after the attacks, the peak date was delayed by 13 days, to March 2. In France, where there were no flight restrictions, there was no delay in the 2001-02 season.

Dr. John Oxford doesn't think the delay from restricting air travel would make a difference in slowing the spread of a pandemic.
(CBC)
As air travel in the U.S. picked up again in 2003, flu deaths returned to their traditional mid-February peak.
The study also showed seasonal flu cases in the U.S. start to take off after American Thanksgiving, when more people fly to be with family.

The researchers tried to look for other reasons for the lag after Sept. 11, such as weather and vaccination rates, but couldn't find any link.

"Really, it was just the travel, the number of people on flights, domestic and international, that influenced the influenza season," said Brownstein.

The findings prompted the team to ask: if restricting air travel could delay flu season, could it also delay the arrival of a flu pandemic?

Every day might count

The delay would not be enough to make a difference, said Prof. John Oxford, an influenza expert at University College London.

"If you stop 99.99 per cent of the flights coming into your country, you do two things," said Oxford. "You blow the feet off the economy, which is not good, and you don't stop the virus coming in. You delay it a little bit."

Others say that in a pandemic, every day will count.

"This could provide significant public health lead time for things like stockpiling antiviral therapy, manufacturing a vaccine," Brownstein countered. The researchers acknowledged their findings cannot prove travel restrictions would change the course of a flu pandemic, but they say it shows air travel plays a major role in the annual spread of flu.

Canada's pandemic flu plan doesn't call for restrictions on air travel, and it might be needed, said Dr. Ron St. John of the Public Health Agency of Canada.

"There will be a dramatic decrease in air travel, without any need for restriction," said St. John. "People will just stop travelling, and that was evident during SARS."