News Reports for March 30

Heads-Up: Healthcare Workers Hospitalized in Indonesia

See the Current Indonesia Diary for a discussion of news reports (toggletexted) of healthcare workers being hospitalized after treating patients with (suspected? confirmed?) H5N1

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by: AlohaOR @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 05:57:27 AM UTC

Indonesian doctor hospitalized for suspected bird flu

JAKARTA, March 30 (Xinhua) -- An Indonesian doctor who had treated a bird flu patient was hospitalized for developing bird flu symptoms in the West Java capital of Bandung, raising worries of human-to-human transfer of the deadly virus, local press said Friday.

  The 29-year-old doctor with the Bandung's Hasan Sadikin Hospital has been isolated at the intensive care unit for bird flupatients since Thursday, and he had a history of contact with a bird flu patient who died last week at the same hospital, reported leading news website Detikcom.

  His blood sample is now being examined at the Health Ministry's laboratory in Jakarta for confirmation.

  Hasan Sadikin Hospital director Cissy Prawira said the hospital applies strict safety procedures in handling bird flu patients and requires all medical staff to wear protections like eyeglasses, masks and gloves.

  "Up to now human-to-human transmission (of bird flu) remains a controversy due to the absence of proof," he was quoted as saying.

(snip)

http://news.xinhuane...

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by: Kelly Phan @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 06:00:15 AM UTC

This is the one that treated Didi. n/t

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by: Kelly Phan @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 06:02:26 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

yes the Doctor of the 15M and 3 others

A DOCTOR who had been treating a 15-year-old boy who died from bird flu is being treated in an isolation ward after developing symptoms of the disease, a hospital official said on Friday.The doctor had treated the boy, from Indramayu in West Java, at a hospital in Bandung. The boy died on March 25 from the H5N1 virus, the official said.

"He is in an isolation room, doing fine. He has been suffering from a sore throat, fever and some respiratory problems. However, he wore a complete protection suit when dealing with a bird flu patient last week," Doctor Yusuf Hadi, the head of the bird flu department at Hasan Sadikin hospital in Bandung, said by telephone.

"Two or three days after having contact with the boy, he suffered from fever. But now, he is OK, he does not have fever anymore. He has been treated as a bird flu suspect together with a woman and two children."

Test results for the four were pending.

Be Prepared

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by: DennisC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:30:23 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

5 HCWs in Indonesia suspected cases

So, that makes 5 HCWs as suspected cases in Indonesia at the moment.  Do I have that right?  This doctor from the Bandung Hasan Sadikin Hospital and, also, 4 others from the Jetis Community Health Centre....  [See Indo thread for details.]

Proud FAF-er.

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by: Theresa42 @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 06:53:55 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've got a little bit different count.

- (don't know how many in a team) the team of the health from the Jetis Community Health Centre that gave first help to Wetono Hadi was also carried to RSUD Dr Soetomo Surabaya

- (4) HCWs, the Er village midwife 35, the nurse Su 50, Dr Ba 26 and Dr Ju 44.  These 4 treated Marwiyah.

- (1) The paramedic the Community Health Centre Jetis was reconciled to RSUD Dr Soetomo Mojokerto - treated a 4 yr old.

- (1) 29-year-old doctor with the Bandung's Hasan Sadikin Hospital - the one who treated Didi

That totals at least 6, with another group of HCWs who worked on Wetono.

Does anyone else have a different number?

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by: Kelly Phan @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 07:02:39 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

The 4 HCW's cited tonight as:

" HCWs, the Er village midwife 35, the nurse Su 50, Dr Ba 26 and Dr Ju 44"---they treated Wetono and are the "health care team" referenced above.  BUT, yesterday, there was a report of 4 sick nurses that took care of Marwiyah, but we have not had more details on them yet.  So, by my count, that makes 4 (on Wetono) + 4 (on Marwiyah) + 1 (Dr. on Didi)= 9 HCW's total with symptoms.

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by: pugmom @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 07:46:21 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Okay, so can we panic now?

I keep going back and forth, to bed, and then getting up because I cannot sleep.  Partly, it's because of my cold medicine, and partly because this is really scaring me.

Where is SusanC and DemfrCT and Lisa and Dr Dave and every body else?  I haven't seen any of them or get their feedback on all of this.

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by: Kelly Phan @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 08:01:06 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kelly

there is not much more we are going to hear tonight.  I keep telling myself these people still only have symptoms and are not confirmed yet.  We have seen so many people over the last year come and go with "symptoms" and most were all negative or just faded off the screen.  We have seen so many that I have now convinced myself that the "best thinking" is to assume every new suspected case is negative, until we hear otherwise.  Kinda like being innocent until proven guilty. In the beginning, I assumed the opposite, that every new case was positive, but you get your underwear in a twist so many times, I figured I needed a new way of thinking about them.  So, I am going to bed and so should you, and sleep tight!  :)

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by: pugmom @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 08:14:14 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks pugmom

I need to get some sleep.  I have to work tomorrow.

But China's new death case worries me.  They are so secretive...

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by: Kelly Phan @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 08:18:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Just think it through for a minute

(Yes, this makes me sick to my stomach too)

These HCWs are from the local healthcare facility which means they most likely also live in the same community and may have contracted the infection from a multitude of sources in that environment - not just the patient.

I think we need to see infection also in the family members that brought them to the facility to see if there might be a possibility that H2H is occurring.

I think it would also be good if we could see the rest of the family etc just tested anyway to ensure none are asymptomatic - which would really "complicate" things.

Hang back folks - yes this is one of our key signals but there are several things to be considered yet, not the least of which is that none of them has been shown as positive.  They have also been in contact with many other patients with a variety of illnesses and this could be "anything".

As they say to mums-to-be as they go into labour - get some sleep - you are going to need it later ;-)  So, go to bed, sleep some, and watch and wait.


Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

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by: AnnieB @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 08:20:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Hang back is good advice

I think we need to avoid jumping to conclusions and wait to see what the test results tell us--since we all suspect some results are false negatives--what the actions of TPTB tell us in the coming few days.

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by: Edna Mode @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 13:15:49 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pandemic Velocity

If you have ever read the pandemic velocity thread, you'll know that you really won't have to wait that long. One thing to remember is that the Indonesian HCWs may be simply acting approriately - with caution. Although, I will say that there has been a lot of strange things happening this week - faint signals pinging all over the globe. Are they coincidences? Will it amount to anything? Time will tell.

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by: banshee @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 13:22:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sick Indonesian HCWs or just precautions?

After poking around, I'm starting to think this may have just been a precautionary measure. It does say the doc was using full PPE. And, he seems to be better. I know there are alternate explanations like the Tamiflu would speed his recovery or he could have caught the virus in the local environment. But, the simpliest answer would be that there is a seasonal flu bug going around. Don't know, just thinking out loud. We'll have to wait I guess.

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by: banshee @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 13:46:53 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Yes, Banshee.

That's what I'm saying, too. A little passage of time will tell.

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by: Edna Mode @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 13:53:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The PPE consists of

a uniform, helmment, spectals, shoes, and special gloves.

I don't know about this seasonal flu speculation. I haven't read reports where seasonal flu was rampant, and taking it's toll on the citizens. I suppose if the hospitals were pack full of people coughing and sneezing trying to seek treatment, them perhaps we could dismiss this as "just seasonal flu". I think it's been fairly quiet on the seasonal flu there. Just speculating here.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

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by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:02:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I've been in labor 5 times. Never was able to go back to sleep no matter how good that advice was. Nerves and adrenalin don't allow it. n/t

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 17:12:42 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Amen to that, twice from here! n/t

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

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by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 17:22:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kelly - Hope you are better now

Kelly,

  Hi. SusanC is moving and DemFromCT is at a conference. I have not heard from Dr. Dave.

  "Fear is the mind killer." - ok that is easier said than done. I've never meet you but reading your posts and seeing your good heart I belive you have what it takes.

  Good things happen without planning.

  Fear  is believing that what you can not see nor touch nor change will happen.
  Faith is believing that what you can not see nor touch nor change will happen.

  Have some faith that you are ahead of most people who will also survive. Do as you planned to do.

Kobie

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by: Kobie @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 12:47:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Greetings

Kobie,

I am still here.  I just happen to have a pretty tough travel schedule, so I am mostly just lurking.

Fear?  I have it-- in spades.

You are running out of time.


http://tinyurl.com/37bl45

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by: Dr Dave @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:26:46 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Dr D - glad you are still here

Dr. Dave,

  HI. I'm still wrapping my head around your book. My house is vinaly siding, not brick, so I am taking what you wrote seriously. I may just leave for a friends farm. The more people the more problems.

  Yet, I also want to stay and help. Yesterday I dropped off some CDC adn HHS forms from Pandemicflu.gov site with the pharmasist. They had no idea what I was talking about. "Bird flu??, flu season is almost over. Is this stuff official??" I have atleast five other pharmacies to hit.

  Scared me. Take care.

Kobie

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by: Kobie @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 20:37:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I couldnt sleep because

i drank too much of my pandemic wine before the date expired.  he he

We are definately prepped. Thanks in part to fluwikie.

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by: AvianPhlu @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:12:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

"Wine increases the desire, bolster the soul but takes away the means":) n/t

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by: Kobie @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:30:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm getting wireless access at Starbucks

sorry, been in the house-move blackhole, still have no internet access. 

I'm just starting to read this, will post after I finish reading!  Thanks!



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:15:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

SusanC - you have been missed. Be safe, we will be here when you return. n/t

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by: Kobie @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:27:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Three new cases of bird flu bringing the total to 30

CAIRO: An Egyptian woman and two children were reported infected with a virulent strain of bird flu Tuesday, bringing to 30 the total number of Egyptians to be diagnosed with the disease since last year.

Nearly half of those infected, 13 people, have died.

The World Health Organization reported two of the three new cases, both young children from southern cities who were admitted to hospitals with fever and cold symptoms.

One of the cases was a 6-year-old girl from the city of Qena, the other a 5-year-old boy from Menia.

The third case was reported by the Egyptian Health Ministry as a 46-year-old woman from the northern Delta city of Damnhour, about 130 km north of the capital, Cairo.

Health officials said that all three people had contracted the virus from domestic birds, the most common route of human infection worldwide.

(snip)

http://www.dailystar...

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by: Kelly Phan @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 06:06:40 AM UTC

This is a reprint...

...of an article that was in the Int'l Herald Tribune yesterday (or the day before yesterday?).  There hasn't been any official confirmation of the 46 yr old woman yet -- don't know what the story is there.

Thanks, Kelly!

Proud FAF-er.

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by: Theresa42 @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 06:50:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

5 HCWs in Indonesia suspected cases

So, that makes 5 HCWs as suspected cases in Indonesia at the moment.  Do I have that right?  This doctor from the Bandung Hasan Sadikin Hospital and, also, 4 others from the Jetis Community Health Centre....  [See Indo thread for details.]

Proud FAF-er.

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by: Theresa42 @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 06:52:54 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Oops!

Posted this in the wrong spot....

Proud FAF-er.

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by: Theresa42 @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 06:54:16 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I have a total of 9 HCW's with Sx------(see above) n/t

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by: pugmom @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 07:55:47 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

NHA bans import of frozen chicken, eggs from Saudi

The National Health Authority has banned imports of all frozen chicken from Saudi Arabia. An official source at the NHA said that a joint committee of the Ministry of Municipal Affairs and Agriculture and the National Health Authority (NHA) has decided to temporarily ban imports of frozen chicken and their derivatives, and eggs from Saudi Arabia.

(snip)

http://www.thepenins...

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by: Kelly Phan @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 06:27:29 AM UTC

Report: Japanese court fines poultry farm, execs over bird flu cover up

TOKYO (AP) -- A northeastern Japanese court fined a poultry company and two former executives 1.8 million yen (US$15,241; ?11,415) for covering up an outbreak of bird flu, a news report said Friday.

The Mito District Court also sentenced both former IKN Egg Farms Chairman Taiyo Saito, 67, and former IKN executive Ikuo Eguchi to one year and two months in jail each for not reporting the H5N2 infection, which is not considered dangerous to humans, Kyodo News agency said. Both men's jail terms were suspended for three years, it added.

Police in Ibaraki prefecture (state) - where Yokohama-based IKN operates several poultry farms - had arrested the two men last February on suspicion of having submitted false samples during avian flu inspections the local government conducted in August 2005.

Those inspections came three months into a yearlong bird flu outbreak in Ibaraki that saw prefectural authorities ultimately destroy about 5.7 million birds by last June in the effort to contain the disease.

(snip)

http://hosted.ap.org...

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by: Kelly Phan @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 06:30:04 AM UTC

Health threats related to international security: WHO

Rising threats to public health such as bird flu could place international security in peril, the World Health Organization (WHO) said on Friday, one week before the World Health Day on April 7.

The international community has yet to adopt a global health response to disease outbreaks and other health-related concerns, WHO Regional Director for the Western Pacific Shigeru Omi said in a press statement.

"Health and international security are closely intertwined. A danger in one country can present a risk to communities on the other side of the world," said Shigeru Omi.

All countries should continue building up their common capacity to prevent, detect, report and respond to these threats, the WHO official said as he added that this year's theme for World Health Day is international health security with the message "invest in health, build a safer future".

(snip)

http://english.peopl...

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by: Kelly Phan @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 08:05:29 AM UTC

China Reports Two Human Bird Flu Deaths

*** I know the first one is the 16 yr old boy, but who's the second one?

Two people have died as a result of bird flu infection with the H5N1 virus strain, the most virulent one, according the Ministry of Health. Both cases were confirmed by a national laboratory.

One of the victims was a 16-year-old boy from Anhui province. He developed pneumonia and was hospitalized on March 20th - he died seven days later. Authorities do not yet know whether he had been in direct contact with sick birds before becoming ill. His relatives and close contacts all seem to be well. We do not have details on the second victim.

(snip)

http://www.medicalne...

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by: Kelly Phan @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 08:08:55 AM UTC

Is it the woman from Fujian? Old story if she's the second. n/t

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

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by: Jane @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:36:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Five children hospitalized for possible bird flu - Turkey

Authorities in southeast Turkey on Thursday hospitalized five children who came in contact with dead chickens as a precaution against possible bird flu, the hospital said. The five, all suffering from flu-like symptoms, were from a village near the town of Karkam??, in southeastern Gaziantep province.

Cuma Y?ld?r?m, deputy chief physician at Gaziantep hospital, said he was almost certain that the children were suffering from ordinary flu - and not bird flu - but said they were hospitalized as a precaution. Samples from the children and the chickens were sent to the capital, Ankara, for tests.

Cont.

http://www.turkishda...

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by: UK - Bird @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 09:00:57 AM UTC

Re. the 5 kids in Turkey

Looks like ages 6 - 9 -- and 4 different surnames (2 share the same surname -- Atusagi):

Vahit Aslan
Mehmet Atusagi
Hüseyin Yalcin
Mustafa Yildiran
Edibe Atusagi

Gaziantep'te kus gribi suphesi
29 Mart 2007
http://www.hurriyet....

Proud FAF-er.

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by: Theresa42 @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 01:14:49 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Indonesian doctor treated for suspected bird flu - Reuters

http://www.alertnet....

Hit the MSM fairly quickly.

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by: banshee @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 13:51:35 PM UTC

Interesting Tidbits from China

Roundup: China confirms human death from bird flu

http://www.newsgd.co...

The student, surnamed Wu from Bengbu City of Anhui, died on Tuesday in hospital after being treated there for ten days, a spokesman for the Anhui provincial health department said.

The boy developed symptoms of pneumonia, fever and muscle aches on March 17. He was admitted to hospital on March 18, the spokesman said.

The local authority has not provided information on how the young student may have contracted the disease.

On Feb. 28, a 44-year-old woman in southeast China's Fujian Province was confirmed by the health ministry to have contracted the bird flu virus. The patient, surnamed Li who is still being treated in hospital, had eaten chicken together with her family, but neither her husband nor son have fallen ill.

China's last confirmed human fatality from the H5N1 strain of bird flu was a 62-year-old farmer in northwestern Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. The man fell ill late last June and died on July 12.

Investigations showed the man did not have close contact with any sick or dead poultry, or humans infected with the disease, in the last month of his life.

COMMENT: So the last few cases from China are not showing direct contact with sick chickens. I wonder what the reservoir is? TomDVM once said that they could always find a sick chicken to put at the scene, (or something like that), but why is China not even attempting this now? They are basically admitting that infections are occurring without infection in poultry. Just more questions...

 

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by: Snowhound1 @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:01:28 PM UTC

Perhaps Li is the 2nd death...

I meant to add that perhaps Li is the 2nd death being reported from China with no details yet forthcoming. Poor woman has been in the hospital since Feb. 28th.

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by: Snowhound1 @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:13:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

She's got to be the longest

living hospilized H5N1 patient ever.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

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by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:16:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

that's because of poultry vaccinations

and also ducks becoming long-term carriers and shedders



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:21:00 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

RE: poultry vaccinations..

Hi Susan...the thing I have never really understood about vaccinating the poultry is that most chickens have a life expectancy of about 16-20 weeks. That is about the age that one butchers a chicken for consumption. If chickens are kept as layers, their life expectancy is about 2 years. (I imagine fighting cocks would be about the same.) After that, when their egg production wanes, they are sold as broilers. Without an unlimited supply of vaccine, I don't see that there is anyway that all chickens/ducks and other fowl could possibly be vaccinated since the turnover of the chicken population is so quick. Particularly chickens that are kept by individuals would be less likely to be vaccinated at the rate that it would require. The fowl that were vaccinated last year, even six months ago are in all probability dead by now. Would a vaccinated layer pass on antibodies to her chicks? I still feel that there must be another reservoir in China with the ability to infect humans, pigs, cats, something. One of these days, we may find the answer and it may not be something we want to hear.

PS: I have to ask...how is your Mastiff? Is she getting big?

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by: Snowhound1 @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:35:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

first my mastiff

is huge, about 50+kg.  We just moved into a house where the back door is what you call a stable-door, where you can open the top half.  Yesterday, I came up to the house and she had her front paws on the top of the lower door, and she was almost taller than me.  Her head is definitely bigger than mine!  We've had to keep her in different parts of the house while the move was going on, cos the movers were saying "We're not keen on finding out how friendly she is".  But of course she is mild and timid as anything, and such a darling.  Still, no need to advertise that, I guess.  LOL

OK, onto business. All I know is that in China, poultry vaccines are given out for free by the government to all farmers, and yes, that means several times a year, whenever farmers have a new batch of chicks.  No, antibodies would not be passed on to the chicks.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:50:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Susan C

Wonderful to hear about your baby.  I adopted a mastsiff this past week.  Her previous owner is very ill.  This is such a wonderful breed of dog.  I am so very lucky. From now on, all my dogs will be mastiff's. :)

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by: lohrewok @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:00:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

same here

all my dogs will be mastiff's. :)



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:31:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mastiffs are wonderful

My son and dil had one but the only problem was she was convinced she was a lap dog - all 56kg of her!

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

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by: AnnieB @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:05:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

She prepared infected meat, they ate it

She probably picked up the chicken, maybe already dead or frozen, and prepared it for the meal.

She cooked it at the suggested temperature, so her family did not become ill when they ate it. 

She got sick by exposure during preparation is my guess.

This is the perfect example of why I am so disgusted with TPTB continuously saying "don't worry, it will be safe to eat"...keep eating it!  -Because somewhere there is a poor mom or teenager at a fast food place, PREPARING the food.

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by: TreasureIslandGal @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:41:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bangladesh says bird flu spreads to more farms

DHAKA (Reuters) -  Bird flu has spread to five more farms in central and northern districts, Bangladesh said on Friday. "The avian flu has now spread to 16 farms in five districts so far. But no humans have been confirmed infected," an official of the fisheries and livestock ministry said....

All the culled birds belonged to the 16 affected farms. So far, 30 workers in the five newly affected farms were being monitored after they were given health checks.

Earlier, 100 poultry workers were released after no H5N1 infection was detected by a local laboratory, which tested their blood and other samples days after the initial outbreak was detected...

http://news.yahoo.co...


Be Prepared

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by: DennisC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:26:53 PM UTC

Sounds like a cluster to me

Comment: Wasn't one of the signals WHO was waiting for was the start of clusters from health workers?  Now the doctor is on Tamiflu and getting better- but that just means it is not a resistant strain.

http://www.liputan6....

.....the example of blood of eighty medical staff and several neighbours who it was suspected had been touching with Marwiyah also was researched.
Four nurses who had been directly touching with Marwiyah, evidently could experience hot high for three days.....

and:
http://www.alertnet....

JAKARTA, March 30 (Reuters) - A doctor who had been treating a 15-year-old boy who died from bird flu is being treated in an isolation ward after developing symptoms of the disease, a hospital official said on Friday......

Be Prepared

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by: DennisC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:40:09 PM UTC

I'm trying to breathe deeply until their tests come back. n/t

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

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by: Jane @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 16:24:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

and don't entirely make that a sigh of relief. Remain cautiously optimistic.

WE've had many discussions about why/how there could be alot of false negatives, from inherent weaknesses in the testing protocols themselves to the effects of treatment with tamiflu. So even if all the HCW tests come back negative, we need to remain alert that this still "could" be a new sign. Then we watch for more such signs. If there are no more in the next week or so, we can maybe relax a bit.

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 17:24:30 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

yes, I think two weeks

is enough time to see what events are going to happen.
Glad you said that.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

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by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 17:26:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Danish researches solve virus puzzle

How is virus as for example HIV and bird flu able to make the cells within a human body work for the purpose of the virus? Researchers at the University of Copenhagen shed new light on this question.

The research is a collaboration between molecular biologists and physicists. "The molecular biologists have knowledge of how the cell functions and of the interplay between the intercellular parts, while the physicists have the expertise and the technique to be able to measure and analyze the physical processes." says Lene Oddershede, physicist at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen. This interdisciplinary work between physics and biology has been very fruitful and will be published April 3rd in the prestigious scientific journal PNAS, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

The researchers have investigated how a virus exploits the machinery of human cells to produce the proteins which the virus needs in order to replicate to billions of new vira. The virus penetrates into the host cell where it liberates its RNA which is a copy of the heritage material, DNA. RNA is like a 'cook book' which contains the recipes of which proteins the virus needs for replication.

(snip)

http://www.eurekaler...

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by: Kelly Phan @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:44:36 PM UTC

If HCW are positive, will WHO go to Phase 4?

I know it is a "fluid line" to declare Phase 4, since we have already reached many of their earlier tipping points before they redefined the Phase 4 definition, and they have continued to redefine Phase 4 to keep edging past those tipping points since then...but with HCW catching it from patients, won't that be the "final straw" on their definition of reaching Phase 4 with no more wiggle-room left to escape that classification?

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by: TreasureIslandGal @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:45:11 PM UTC

exactly

If there is a positive on the Doc and the 4 nurses- I don't see how WHO could justify not going to 4.  If/When that happens all kinds of things will be set into motion.  My guess is that it will take WHO a week or so to "rule" on the phase level and we (FW) will see it first. 

But Indo might be able to "dodge the bullet" if they do a good job at containmen on the HCW's

Be Prepared

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by: DennisC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:54:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

If the health care workers

didn't infect others first.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

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by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:59:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Tamiflu

If they are given tamiflu, they may not test positive.  If that happens, I wouldn't be surprised if they gave us the old song and dance..."Nothing to see here folks, move along" and use up more precious time that people could be preparing.

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by: lohrewok @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:02:41 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

true, but I would suspect

that they would have taken samples before treatment.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:04:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

We have to trust that TPTB will be making this judgement call

and will give not give us a false sense of security or delay in telling everyone to take cover. 

I hope they have lots of field agents to uncover the information they need to let us know.

--A shriveling thought...Please don't tell me that Fluwiki is the 'field agent'...

---

by: Kelly Phan @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:07:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

trust TPTB?

well, if you say so...

I read everything with a healthy dose of skepticism, and I'm by no means the most paranoid here, I don't think.  No, I'll place my trust on evaluation of every piece of info.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 16:53:50 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

TPTB- they are doing this for the first time too! n/t

---

by: Kobie @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 17:23:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

SusanC....

"I'll place my trust on evaluation of every piece of info."
Amen to that!

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 18:16:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Sorry, but . . .

I don't trust a word TPTB say on a good day, much less at a time like this.  Trust and government have become mutually exclusive in my mind. 

I'll trust what deductions I (and those here and elsewhere) can draw from what information we can verify.

That's all I'll trust. 

---

by: Clawdia @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 22:57:29 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Let me rephrase this. :D

We have to trust that TPTB will be making this judgement call and not delay in alerting those around us to prepare to take cover. 

Obviously, all the people who have been following this like a hawk already have a clear handle on what's going on.  It's the poor poor people who do not follow this that I am talking about, the other 99.9%. 

I know my previous statement sounds as if I lumped everyone, including those in the know, together.  My apologies for that.  Chalk it down to a mixture of medicines working at overdrive and a rush to get out of the house to go to work.  I haven't been at my best healthwise for almost a week now, and continuing to go to work even though I was sick wasn't helping me get better.

SusanC had asked a question in one other thread about what we would say to the public in regards to all of this, as opposed to what we would say to our parents or our sibblings or our spouses, and I never could come up with anything politically correct to respond to her. 

Anything that sounds remotely alarmist would be either ignored or cause panic attacks.  So, in their very nature, governments cannot do this.  BUT!!!  I hope they see through their confusion and their fears and do so anyway, because anything else will be short of what it's going to take for all of us to survive with any kind of self-respect intact.

For the record, this is still the ramblings-on of a sick and medicated mind.  :D

---

by: Kelly Phan @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 01:25:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pretty good ramblings there, for a sick and medicated mind! n/t

---

by: Greenmom @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 03:30:12 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

I think it may depend on whether there are 3rd and 4th generation cases

Remember the Karo cluster was the first time where we saw a 3rd generation case.  If this was h2h from a patient or patients to HCWs, if the transmission was only patient to HCW then stop, then the transmissibility chain is not worse than previous clusters, but it is worse in 2 other ways: 1 the HCWs are not biologically related to the patient.  2 If more than one HCW tests positive, it would also mean some more improvement in transmissbility compared to previously, where I believe the only documented HCW infection was in Vietnam in 05, and one HCW was infected.

These would be 2 indicators of the virus having made more progression towards adaptation to humans, but not on the efficieitn h2h2h2h2h chain.  Which means that the WHO is unlikely to declare Phase 4, I think.  Remember that the ability of the virus to cause a pandemic is dependent on its ability to survive and establish itself as a stable pathogen for humans, which means surviving numerous transmissions between human hosts.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:04:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

doc

The doc,if positive, could be a third gen. His patient (Didi) had no acknowledged contact with ill birds.

There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is in having lots to do and not doing it." -Mary Wilson Little

---

by: cactus @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:07:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

no contact with ill birds

only means we don't know where he got it from.  It could still be from birds, or cats, we just don't know.  I'm not saying he didn't get it from another human, just that WHO is not going to act on no evidence.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:13:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

criteria for 4

From the Who site, the criteria for going to 4 is "evidence of increased human to human transmission". Or in your words "mean some more improvement in transmissbility compared to previously". If there are multiple documented HCW cases getting it, it seems that it would satisfy WHO's criteria.

Be Prepared

---

by: DennisC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:17:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

IMHO

Even if these HCWs tested positive for H5N1, I don't think WHO would declare Phase 4. I really don't think they will up the phase level until you have clusters of people dying in the streets and it is totally undeniable. There would have to be overwhelming evidence and no hope for containment.

---

by: banshee @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:29:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

in principle, they have separated containment

from Phase change. ie they may do any kind of containment activity without a formal Phase change.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:30:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm looking to WHO to

go to phase 4 when people ARE dying in the streets, and the hospitals are bulging at the walls. WHO will say, "Oh yea, we'd better update the situation."

As we've discussed before, the ramifications of WHO moving to phase 4 are huge, and they are not going to do it without evidence that cannot not be denied. We haven't reached that point yet.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

---

by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:35:27 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

in other words

I'm looking to WHO to go to phase 4 when people ARE dying in the streets, and the hospitals are bulging at the walls.

In other words, when we're at stage 5 (or 6?), they'll declare 4?

---

by: gardner @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:38:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

You gotta it.

In all honesty, I think WHO will take their time in making these critical phase moves, and unfortunately, their decisions have to be based on how out of control H5N1 is in H2H, and of course we all know that's too late. The ripple effect moving to phase 4 will be huge for all countries, so they are being very causious.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

---

by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:55:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

according to us ;-)

but it is unlikely to convince the WHO, is what I'm saying.  And I was only pointing out their rationale, that what counts for a pandemic is h2h2h2h2h2h, not H2manyH.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 15:29:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

That is clearer...

But one person giving it to, say, four other people sounds as if it is much easier for humans to get it, right?  No more of that "lower in the lungs" idea, right?  Sounds like a cough or sneeze might do it.  If that's the case, then the only thing that will keep it from going h2h2h2h... is the "tamiflu blanket", which they have already been doing since 2005 when they were saying it was still hard for humans to get it.  So, with cases, even clusters, happening all over the globe (practically) how can we continue to win with the blanket approach?  That's what I have been wondering since the 2005 Indo cluster.  I know it's all we have, but everyone has to be wondering too when it will not hold back the dam, right?

P.S. - I have REALLY missed you SusanC!!!  When you went quite for so long my mind went racing.  And I would like to know what you think (or maybe know) about the infectious disease doctor who died in Indo the other day.  Do you think she caught something over there, or just had a heart attack?  And if she did catch something, will they tell us?

---

by: betty @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 16:27:14 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

about the Infectious disease doc

it's hard to say.  From what I read, it sounds like a sudden death to me, which doesn't seem like BF, more like heart attack, just from that little bit of info.

I miss you guys too!  I hope the ISP get their act together soon!  Tells you how important communication is.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 16:31:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree, Susan-

It sounds like heart failure-Ive heard of people getting nauseous just before a heart attack-or during a small one.  Miss you lots- best of luck with the move- moving is such a pain, but hopefully you'll be settled in before this thing blows open-I'm keeping my fingers crossed that it will blow OVER.

---

by: Greenmom @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 16:35:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Susan: How does this compare with what happened during SARS to hcw?

Also, consider this: HCW were treating bird flu patients and were wearing all the proper safety gear all the time they were in with the patients. It seems unlikely that they would have been also assigned to go out of that ward to treat other patients during their work stints, thus they would not have been exposed to a bunch of flu patients at the hospital, just the bf patient they were assigned to. So what are the odds that these HCWs, who are not related or living together, all caught ordinary flu at the same time from outside the hospital sources?

On the other hand, if they were working in other wards with other patients in addition to the bf case, they could have been exposed to flu patients in the hospital. However that seems like very poor protocols to use (having nurses go in and out of isolation wards...even if they shed their protective gear and disinfected themselves each time they exited the ward.) Could some of you with experience in how hospitals operate in this regard weigh in on this?

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 17:34:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

OK, I'll bite...

There is NO way a doctor would ever be assigned to only one or two patients, no matter what.  Possibly one nurse might be, but that is fairly unlikely also.  So, probably all these HCWs were taking care of other patients, too.

nothing left to do but :) :) :)

---

by: SarahS @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 23:55:17 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

as a matter of precaution

for HCWs treating patients and then showing symptoms, it would be prudent to assume they are infected unless proven otherwise.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 13:02:02 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Bangladesh confirms bird flu rise

Bird flu has spread to five more farms in central and northern districts.

"The avian flu has now spread to 16 farms in five districts so far. But no humans have been confirmed infected," an official of the Bangladesh fisheries and livestock ministry said.

Bangladesh has culled about 60,000 birds since confirming the outbreak of the H5N1 flu virus simultaneously on six farms near the capital, Dhaka, on March 22.

All the culled birds belonged to the 16 affected farms.

So far, 30 workers in the five newly affected farms were being monitored after they were given health checks.

Earlier, 100 poultry workers were released after no H5N1 infection was detected by a local laboratory, which tested their blood and other samples days after the initial outbreak was detected.

(snip)

http://www.news.com....

---

by: Kelly Phan @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 14:46:23 PM UTC

Next red flag to watch for.....

Family members of the hospilized HCW's showing signs of H5N1. If and when that happens you will be sure SHHTF!

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

---

by: Carol@SC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 16:04:51 PM UTC

Carol@SC, that's what

we're waiting for. If, we even hear about it. This could go HUSH.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

---

by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 16:11:52 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

hope that doesn't happen

ok, gotta go, see y'all tomorrow, maybe.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 16:54:51 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Phase 4 triggers

Dr.Susan: I think you are right that the WHO will not quickly declare phase 4. However, we seem to be beyond stage 3 "no or rare h to h." The identical viral sequences that appeared near Jakarta a few weeks ago suggest that some h to h was very likely being detected, and now apparently we have multiple HCW. So what do you think would be required to move things up a notch? This is not a "wicked WHO" question but an attempt to gauge when they would acknowledge a step change in the situation. If they are likely to be tardy, as many on FW believe, that suggests we should try to make our own collective judgment. If we did, that in itself might pressure them to act in a timely but responsible way. There are real costs to moving to a higher stage and it should not be done lightly. 

---

by: INFOMASS @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 16:19:25 PM UTC

INFOMASS, I agree too. I'm not

to concerned at this point as to when WHO is going to declare phase 4, as much as I am about the health care workers, and the possible infection of others from them.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

---

by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 16:29:40 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The collective mind at FW seems to agree we are at phase 4

So, if WHO declared phase 4, what would you do? That's what I've been asking myself. The official declaration from WHO would make it easier to convince others to prep, but if we feel certain we are in phase 4 already, are we ready to go to our family, friends, co-workers and neighbors and tell them in no uncertain terms that this plague is coming soon, and they had better prep?

I am teetering on the edge of this, back and forth. I want to see what happens to these HCWs I guess. The suspect cases that are declared negative but are in intensive care for 2 to 4 weeks are the ones that in my own mind I feel certain are false negatives. The ones that clear up in a week or so are probably ordinary flu. So, if these HCW do not rapidly improve within the next few days (meaning it was probably just a little ordinary flu and an abundance of caution) I will go Phase 4 personally, as above.

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 17:48:41 PM UTC

what would you do? is an important question

to some extent, having believed we were at phase 4 for some time, I'm not sure I would do anything different.

That is not to downplay anything... but the differences might be seen to be greater at institutional levels than at personal levels.

---

by: DemFromCT @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 18:11:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

yes, I'll agree. If these

next two weeks produce some disturbing news, it'll just put me back in overdrive with my preps.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

---

by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 18:18:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

So we really can't depend on WHO declaring phase 4

I agree they are less likely to declare phase 4 when it's really occurring.  They will hope they can contain it like SARS and avert the pandemic.  I agree phase 4 means little to me personally.  The only problem I see with this is once we hit phase 4, phase 5 and 6 probably aren't far behind. 

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

---

by: Tempest @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 00:08:01 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

maryinhawaii, you raise some good questions.

I have personally been at phase 4, but still cannot bring myself to call my mum and say "You gotta start prepping now." She's really not into the H5N1, so if I felt comfortable with what I was seeing in the news, that yes, I don't need WHO to tell me this has changed and we have arrived at a new point in this, and I would make my phone call to her. I'm not quiet to that point. I want to see what happens with the HCW,(mums one herself). So alot personally is riding on what happens in the next two weeks.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

---

by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 18:15:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Smoking in the halls

I'm sure the news hounds on the Indonisia diary will remember the BF Patient that was outside his room smoking in the hall way (there was a photo in the newspaper and on-line). How could we even begin to think the workers would not be exposed with that sort of thing going on. We've also seen photos of Family & Friends visiting/ handling patients with no protection at all.
It would be more Improbable for the virus Not to be passed with all of this going on.

---

by: GrayArea @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 18:03:04 PM UTC

Bird flu pandemic inevitable: WHO

...International spread will also be rapid. Most experts predict that global spread of the next pandemic will take place within a few months. Conservative estimates predict that around 20 per cent of the total world population will fall ill...An estimated 1 billion people will fall ill...

http://vietnamnews.v...

Comment: Not an article that gives one the warm and fuzzies. Interesting that the article states that the pandemic will start in the next few months. Wonder where they got that from?

---

by: banshee @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 18:20:45 PM UTC

Sorry

I re-read and I think they might mean that it will only take a few months for a pandemic to spread. A little confusing how its written.

---

by: banshee @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 18:22:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Have to agree- "fast spread" not "will spread soon"

Banshee,

  I had to read the article twice and agree with you. They are writing about how fast it will spread, not when. Though I too thought he meant it will start. 

[snip]
"International spread will also be rapid. Most experts predict that global spread of the next pandemic will take place within a few months."
[snip]

  Did you notice the publication permit at the bottom of the page. "Publication Permit: 599/GP-INTER" 

Kobie

---

by: Kobie @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 18:47:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

What does that mean Kobie? n/t

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

---

by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 18:49:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

it probably means nothing

I'd guess it is just some kind of ID or general permit for the newspaper itself. I checked other pages on the website, and it's on those pages too.

---

by: gardner @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 18:56:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Publication Permit - odd for a US person

CottonTop

  Hi. At the bottom of the article is written: "Publication Permit: 599/GP-INTER" 

  I do not know if that is for tax control, information control or to signify a legitimate publisher.

  Perhaps we have them here too.

Kobie

 

---

by: Kobie @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 19:55:32 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kobie, it's a Vietnamese newspaper

Anything published has to be approved by TPTB.  You can't just go out there and publish whatever you want to in a country like VN.  You could disapear in the middle of the night. 

---

by: Kelly Phan @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 01:34:40 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Kelly- VN paper

Kelly,

  Hi. Thanks. That is just soo weird to me. I understand it but only on a mental level. It scares my heart as to what is not being said.

  Be well. Hope you are sleeping better.

Kobie

---

by: Kobie @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 20:39:33 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

From an article I read earlier

this month, a round table discussion involving China, from stage 1 to stage 3(pandemic) would take 6 months. I posted that somewhere.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

---

by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 18:28:33 PM UTC

Stage 1 to 3?

Can you explain what you read in a little more detail, please?  I don't recall reading that post of yours.  Are they talking about WHO having talks with China?  And does this infer that China has levels of 1 to 3, and if there's changes it changes WHO's; therefore, the rest of the world's levels?  This doesn't sound good to me.  And are they saying that even if they think it should be raised (China's, WHO's, etc., level) that they will take 6 months to actually decide to do it?  What would be the purpose of that?  And will they tell us when they start this 6 month discussion?

---

by: betty @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 20:14:34 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Permits in Vietnamese newspapers

ALL newspapers in Vietnam have to get a government permit and are subject to supervision of content. However, there is a fair amount of latitude on reporting, especially foreign news. The VietnamNews is (I think) done out of Hanoi in English for foreigners and those who read English. This might be an attempt to warn Vietnamese of the dangers of a pandemic, as similar articles do appear in the Vietnamese language press. The fact that they have not had human cases since late 2005 makes it easier to discuss. 

---

by: INFOMASS @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 19:02:48 PM UTC

Interesting... n/t

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

---

by: cottontop @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 19:07:18 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Harry Kim did NOT have pneumonia...

...Kim fell ill before boarding a flight home from Indonesia after a 12-hour delay and was rushed to The Queen's Medical Center Sunday with what was originally thought to be bacterial pneumonia. Specialists ruled that out but are not quite sure what caused his severe chills and high fever, Kim said...

...Kim was in Indonesia to participate in a disaster-preparedness workshop at the request of the Indonesian government...

http://www.honolulua...

---

by: banshee @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 19:48:01 PM UTC

Kim...

That's not good, because I don't recall that they held up the plane he was in and checked the other people (like they did in NJ).  If, by chace, he did catch bird flu while in Indonesia, what are the chances that the other persons on the plane could come down with it.  Planes do use recirculating air, right?  And where are those other passengers now?  Four people in my office are going to Hawaii for a conference next month...

---

by: betty @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 20:10:48 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I will check local news to see if there is any more info, and update you. n/t

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 04:30:46 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Doctor Improving

AKARTA (AFP) - An Indonesian doctor who fell ill after treating patients suffering from the deadly bird flu virus was improving, a fellow doctor said Friday.
ADVERTISEMENT

The 29-year-old doctor was hospitalised on Thursday after developing symptoms similar to bird flu, raising concerns of human-to-human transfer of the deadly virus.

"His condition is improving, his fever is down and x-ray results came back good," said Hadi Yusuf, a doctor who treats patients with the virus at the Hasan Sadikin hospital in West Java.

[continued]http://news.yahoo.co...

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

---

by: Oremus @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 20:32:18 PM UTC

I still am confused

as to whether the doctor had a low thrombocyte count?
I wish we had more info.

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

---

by: mojo @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:02:24 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The news from WHO

Could more of you voice your Opinion with regards to "The pandemic spreading within the next few months?" I got my hubby to take a look and he's very optimistic but he reads it as it is here, spreading, and we have a couple of months.

---

by: homeschool4 @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 20:36:59 PM UTC

Re-read the sentence

"Most experts predict that global spread of the next pandemic will take place within a few months."

I made the same mistake when I first read it. I think they mean that when the next pandemic occurs, it will take only a few months to spread globally. But, it certainly is not clearly written. Anyone else?

---

by: banshee @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 20:47:56 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

re: the news from the WHO

I'm sure it means "when a pandemic begins [and it hasn't yet] it will spread throughout the world within months."

In the previous paragraph, Chan is said to have "stressed that global spread would be inevitable."

You use "would" for hypothetical situations, not actualities.

And besides, if an actual certified pandemic strain were circulating now, I'm sure (I hope!!) we'd see it: in hospitalizations, deaths, announcements, etc.

---

by: gardner @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 20:54:36 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I agree n/t

I am not like other birds of prey....

---

by: Commonground @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 20:59:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thank you, I feel better :)

---

by: homeschool4 @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:10:04 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

i do and i don't.....feel better.

it's good it's not already here, but a global spread that they are saying will only take a few months would be absolutely devastating to the world economy and to health care. It would be a complete overwhelm of all systems.

This prediction, to me , says we don't stand a chance of mitigating it once it begins. Which means no real measures for social isolation are in place, no real viable plans to enforce school, travel and work closures. This is a hands up in the air proclamation by those in charge of "saving" us.

WE all kind of figured it would be this way, but to have the official statement by tptb state as much.....scary.

Always have a plan B.

---

by: maryinhawaii @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 04:36:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pandemic spread times - scenarios

It is impossible to tell beforehand how fast a pandemic strain would spread. It depends on how contagious it is (the R0 - the number of people infected from each original case), the steps taken to reduce contact and restrict travel, and the use of tamiflu and other antivirals. It also depends on where the strain appears (remote village? major international city?) and how it makes its way to the wider world. I think Pablo Escobar(?) did some work on models of spread times under various assumptions. With bad luck, it could be a few weeks. With better luck, it would be several months. With really good luck and a lot of tamiflu, we might hold it off for a year or more. This does not get into the virulence of the disease and how that would influence its spread and the use of non-pharma interventions such as social distancing.

---

by: INFOMASS @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:01:58 PM UTC

Spread times

The article I just posted from the Edmonton Times states that panflu would likely reach global spread within one to 5 months.

---

by: banshee @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:13:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

diary on "pandemic velocity"

http://newfluwiki2.c...

just for our reference :-)

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

---

by: lugon @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:19:13 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

There is/was an entire Diary on

Pandemic Velocity Calculations with attached spreadsheets to look at various scenarios.

here is a link to that Diary if anyone wants to review that information and discussion
http://www.newfluwik...

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

---

by: AnnieB @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:23:19 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

AnnieB, velocity also in fredness' link to an interesting piece of software

http://newfluwiki2.c...

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

---

by: lugon @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 22:09:22 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Relaxing too soon on avian-flu threat

Maybe, the avian flu just isn't happening fast enough to keep our attention. Maybe, in the popular imagination, it's already another example of a predicted catastrophe -- like the Y2K computer scare -- that turned out to be a false alarm.

But it's still out there, whether the global public is concerned or not, and those in the know are just as frightened as ever of what may happen.

The H5N1 flu virus appears to be following the path toward becoming a killer that could rival the Spanish influenza of 1918-19 or even Europe's black plague of the Middle Ages...[more]

http://www.canada.co...

---

by: banshee @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:10:19 PM UTC

Nepal: smuggled rare birds killed at airport

Officials of Central Animal Quarantine Office (CAQO) killed and buried 245 birds of rare species last night on the premises of Tribhuvan International Airport, in a bid to keep at bay the possibility of bird flu.
The illegally imported rare birds were passed by the customs office but were caught by the District Forest Officers on the airport. However, the owner of the birds managed to escape the scene.[snip]

[snip]The variety of birds, mainly belonging to parrot families and believed to be of African origin, were brought to Kathmandu on Pakistan International Airlines...[snip]

[snip]The District Forest Officer Madhav Acharya also objected to the killing of birds in haste. "The customs officer did not help us arrest the importer when we arrived there. The birds were dubiously killed around 2 am without our presence," he said. He added, "We missed the opportunity to burst the bird smuggling racket.

http://www.thehimala...

Amazingly detailed article, with the name of the passenger who smuggled the birds and the tag numbers on the cages.  Guess they didn't test the birds. 

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

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by: Jane @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:43:42 PM UTC

The Latest From Sandman

Have you folks seen the latest from Sandman and Lanard?  It looks like Sandman now believes in the pandemic.  Really interesting ready.

http://www.psandman....

You are running out of time.


http://tinyurl.com/37bl45

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by: Dr Dave @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:45:23 PM UTC

...

make that "reading".

You are running out of time.


http://tinyurl.com/37bl45

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by: Dr Dave @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 21:47:05 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perhaps we should file Sandman's new article under watch what

they do, not what they say.  What's changed lately that made him (them) revise their stance on bird flu?

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by: allie @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 22:09:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Things to watch -

Not only Sandman's change in tune, but the fact that Indo withheld info for a good while, apparently while trying an alternate route to a vaccine, and then decided again to cooperate to some extent . . .

I think it should be obvious that something has been going on in Indonesia the past couple of months - we may only now be finding out just what. 

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by: Clawdia @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 22:51:57 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

i had read it in part and forgot to report on it

I'm not really concerned why exactly Dr Sandman wrote this new piece (it could be he feels the next pandemic is closer, or he feels more people are ready for this kind of ideas, or he's found the time after dealing with other priorities, or a mixture of all of that, or something entirely different).

Whatever the reason for writing this new article may be, I do welcome it and it goes right into my toolbox, as I've long been concerned with the "what if soon and bad" and the "let's assume most people won't prep".

Now I just have to find out some time to read it! ;-)

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

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by: lugon @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 22:22:43 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Researchers make market on avian flu

Starting next month experts from around the globe will be asked to place bets on the flu.

University of Iowa economists and physicians have organized a so-called global avian flu market -- not so someone can collect a big payout, but rather to see if it is possible to forecast the spread of the influenza virus using the same market tools that predict the future prices of corn, soybeans and pork bellies.

http://www.chicagotr...

This story was linked in yesterday's news to ProMedMail.  The Tribune story is an elaboration but not as accurate as Jon Van usually is. 

[snip]It has proven fatal to nearly half the people who contract it, and authorities fear that if the virus mutates so that it can spread from person to person it could kill thousands or millions around the world.[snip,my color, bolding]

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

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by: Jane @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 22:03:23 PM UTC

Indonesian doctor with suspected bird flu 'improving'

...."His condition is improving, his fever is down and x-ray results came back good," said Hadi Yusuf, a doctor who treats patients with the virus at the Hasan Sadikin hospital in West Java.

However the sick doctor, identified only by one of his initials S, will remain in isolation at the hospital until the results of tests were known.
...

http://news.yahoo.co...

Be Prepared

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by: DennisC @ Fri Mar 30, 2007 at 23:08:49 PM UTC

U.S. announces new bird flu program

WASHINGTON, March 30 (UPI) -- The U.S. government says it is boosting international support for programs to stop a possible bird flu pandemic.

The U.S. Agency for International Development has announced a three-year, $35.8 million contract for a program called Stamping out Pandemic and Avian Influenza -- or STOP AI -- designed to limit the impact of bird flu around the globe.

The government says STOP AI aims to increase global capacity to contain H5N1 avian influenza in animals, minimizing its spread from animals to humans, and limiting the opportunity for it to develop into a pandemic strain.

(snip)

http://www.upi.com/N...

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by: Kelly Phan @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 02:48:54 AM UTC

Indonesian doctor has possible H5N1 symptoms

*** more on the doctor

Mar 30, 2007 (CIDRAP News) - A doctor who treated an Indonesian boy who died of suspected H5N1 avian influenza is now being treated for suspicious symptoms himself, according to media reports today.

The doctor had treated a 15-year-old boy who died on Mar 25 at a hospital in Bandung. Reuters reported. Indonesian officials said 3 days ago that initial tests indicated the boy had the H5N1 virus.

Yusuf Hadi, head of the bird flu department at Hasan Sadikin hospital in Bandung, told Reuters that 2 or 3 days after treating the boy, the doctor fell ill with a sore throat, fever, and respiratory symptoms, despite having worn protective equipment.

"He is in an isolation room, doing fine," Hadi told Reuters, adding that the doctor no longer has a fever.

Test results are pending for the doctor, along with three other patients, a woman and two children, Reuters reported.

(snip)

http://www.cidrap.um...

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by: Kelly Phan @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 02:50:18 AM UTC

Nurses on strike- Indo

http://www.jawapos.c...
..b> A strike has been called by the nurses at the hospital. ....

Be Prepared

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by: DennisC @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 03:38:39 AM UTC

Please post new news stories to ...

News Summary for March 31

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by: AlohaOR @ Sat Mar 31, 2007 at 04:51:09 AM UTC