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Tropical weather - other disasters that may exercise your preps

by: Tempest

Tue Jul 31, 2007 at 03:08:10 AM EDT

(With hurricane season heating up in the US, and typhoon season in Asia, this is a good time to have this on the Front Page. Thanks go to Tempest for starting this... - promoted by Bronco Bill)

Would you guys be interested in my sharing heads-up on developing tropical systems before the hurricane center begins issuing advisories on them?  Explanation and disclaimer below.

Mods: if not, I totally understand.

Tempest :: Tropical weather - other disasters that may exercise your preps
Being a weather geek, I tend to watch the tropics carefully during the summer/fall.  I'm seeing things heating up in the Atlantic now (7/31) and this is climatologically the time where tropical systems should be on the upswing.  Those of you along the gulf and Atlantic coasts should always be wary this time of year, and check the National Hurricane Center's website for official forecasts:


But they don't report on developing cyclones until they are actually cyclones.  There's often what are called 'tropical waves' that give birth to these cyclones.  If you watch those and know how to interpret forecast models, you can sometimes get a few days advance notice. 

I thought you all might be interested if I share what I see out there.  Just realize that the NHC are really the people to watch, and mine is only an educated opinion.  For safety reasons, I'd like to only give a heads-up on systems that haven't developed yet but appear to be developing.  After that, the NHC should be watched.  I won't be offended if you think this is not appropriate for the wiki and decide to close this diary.

I live within 100 miles of the Gulf of Mexico or the U.S. Atlantic seaboard


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Hi Tempest!
Fine with me. As I live in Upstate N.Y., any hurricanes that hit on my side of the country, usually end up in my neck of the woods, after they hit land, and still pack a powerful punch. We've recieved alot of property damage, power outages, and flooding from them. One aftermath of a hurricane, the winds were so bad, that it literally uprooted our pine trees, and layed some across our driveway. That was a wild ride!

United we stand: Divided we fall

Tropical Weather
Would be ok for me too, We are about 150 miles from the beach and after Hugo hit us, we keep an eye on all storms heading for the east coast.  I do not have time to pop out to the NHC everyday so I end up only poping out there when I hear something on the news.  I must admit I have a fear that a hurricane will hit during a SIP making things even worse or one will hit and set everything off

Distance from ocean
We're 10 miles from the ocean and I'm very afraid that a hurricane or strong tropical storm will hit us and destroy our solar panels!  (Not to mention the roof and everything under it, including our preps.)

[ Parent ]
Howdy Meserole
I live within 5 miles of the ocean on an island, but if God is willing and the creek don't rise, by this time next year I'll be about 15 miles. While it's not as far away as I had intended when I put my house up for sale, the house I'm hoping to buy is in a great non-descreet location where I can start getting properly prepared for 'any eventuality.'

I also have a couple of solar panels and plan to mount them somewhere out of sight from the road. The best any of us close to the coast can do is to make sure that not only are the solar panels secured properly to a roof, but also that the structure housing the roof is properly grounded or anchored to the earth. If your structure is a shed or 'lean to,' consider putting some anchors into the ground with concrete so you can lash the structure to the ground using them. Best of luck to us all.

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

[ Parent ]
Re: Howdy Meserole
iwrote1:  "If your structure is a shed or 'lean to,' consider putting some anchors into the ground with concrete so you can lash the structure to the ground using them."

We have them securely attached to the flat roof over the patio - not on the actual house roof because it's barrel tiled.  They are supposed to be very securely attached, but I still worry.

The online mets are talking about another storm behind Hurricane Dean that's got So FL in its sights, so I'm paying close attention to that.

We have discussed actually taking the panels down if a storm is coming right toward us, then putting them back up afterward.  I'm not sure how difficult this would be, but I worry that projectiles will smash them in high winds.

[ Parent ]
Might not be a bad idea to take them down
if they are glass (the ones I have are from uni-solar and are supposed to be shatter resistant and look to be plastic instead of glass). Is there any way you can mount some 3/8 inch plywood over top of your panels to protect them from fying debris? It might be easier to do that than to remove your panels only to have to replace them, especially if it will weaken your mounting holes in the roof. Then when the storm passes pull the plywood off just like you would from a protected window.

I just put an offer in on a house off of this island, with a wooded acre of land, so I should be able to start getting all of my ducks in a row with my preps. At my current location in the midst of a neighborhood, there are restrictions so that mounting them out of sight meant inside of a fenced area between my house and the next. But in doing so I'd get limited sun exposure. Once I relocate to the acre however, it's very private and I'll feel a whole lot better about my efforts when the bird poo hits the fan. Plus, I'll have extra room so relatives can pull an RV to the site and we can ride things out together.

There is a flat roof on the back of the house I'll be buying, just like you describe you have, but if yours is constructed like mine I'd be concerned that a hurricane might tear the entire screen room and flat roof right off of the house, with my solar panels attached.

With that in mind, there is an outbuilding on the property about forty feet from the house that I will make sure is anchored with concrete and straps. I plan on mounting my panels on the south facing roof and putting the batteries inside of the structure along with the charge controller. Still haven't decided whether or not to go with hard wiring them or using a heavy duty extension cord since I am going to be limited in capacity anyway (two 64w panels and four 6v batteries), so a good cord might be the way to go.

But for now, let's hope this new storm doesn't come our way (I'm in Central Florida). Fortunately, the weather experts are rarely accurate (when they can tell me accurately what the weather will be for the next two weeks, then I'll start listening when they try to tell me what it will be like in fifty years). Best of luck to you and yours.

The beatings will continue until morale improves.

[ Parent ]
El Niño - La Niña
You might be interested in this story which I posted on the Community thread some days ago:

Weather influence on preps
I don't know where to post this, but it seems to me that weather forecasts may influence our preps or the spread of bird flu. This is about El Niño and La Niña:
Source: United Nations - http://tinyurl.com/2...

20 July 2007

El Niño/La Niña Update

Carine Richard-Van Maele of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said that today WMO was publishing it most recent update on the El Niño/La Niña phenomena, which was under embargo until 3 p.m. GMT. Copies were available in English and French in the back of the room, and a Spanish version would be available soon. Also available were copies of the publication "Climate in the Twenty-First Century", which summarized the consequences of El Niño/La Niña. In addition, there was a schedule of all WMO major media events this year to date.

Rupa Kumar Kolli, a WMO Expert, presenting the conclusions in the El Niño/La Niña update, indicated that a La Niña was more likely than not to develop in the second half of 2007. At present there was a neutral condition in the tropical Pacific Ocean, but there were indications that cooler conditions were prevailing over the eastern part of it. The conditions in May and June had been unsteady, and had presented a slight reversal of the trend towards a La Niña, but now things appeared to be on track for its development. If it did occur, however, it was likely to be a weak La Niña event; and the possibility remained that neutral conditions would continue. Development of El Niño during the remainder of the year was considered very unlikely.

La Niña, which was basically prevailing cold conditions in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, was a planetary-scale climate anomaly that was known to have a variety of impacts in terms of precipitation, temperature and likelihood of severe weather across the globe. Historical data indicated that La Niña conditions were frequently associated with stronger Monsoons and flooding over the Asian Monsoon region, with dryer than normal conditions over Africa, and with a higher frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic, Mr. Kumar Kolli said. Typically, a La Niña condition lasted for from 9 to 12 months, which meant that if it were to develop at the end of this year it would likely peak around Winter 2007/08.

Let me be blind to wicked text, deaf to wicked words, mute to wicked comments.

Live within 20 miles of ocean
  Swamp and pigs to the left, ocean to the right and inland waterway above, rivers below.

  I pushed for a house in 100 year flood zone but my city is carved up by water.

  Hurricanes are a problem. So are tropical storms. Floyed went west of us and drenched ground which drained into the swamp which then tried to drain through the city.

  The Army Corps of Engineers control the locks. By the time they tried to open them the could not. Ohh yea they even tried pumping the locks with fire trucks. 10,000 gallons a min - but three days effort was a drop in the bucket as the water level kep rising.

  We also have several nuclear subs and nuclear ships with no way to contain a spill or accident. Kinda like 3-Mile Island without the concrete containment or land.

  We have some oil terminals and industrial sites.

  Lastly there is the river bottom. Dredging and messing with the bottom is verboton because of all the chemicals from centuries gone by enturred there in.

  What could make me use my preps:
  Power outages, floods, tornado, hurricane, tropical stom, loss of job, ice stoms or snow (more than 4 inches), heat wave (104+ for several days.), water plant failure - like they had in Chicago, price hike in some foods send milk over $10 a gallon.


Then here's what's out there right now, nothing impending
Nothing immediate for the U.S. on 7/31:

The depression N of Bermuda and SE of Boston has now become Chantal.  Should miss North America except for a possible scrape to Newfoundland. 

Then there's a tropical wave (a little disturbance that can become a tropical system) is just east of the southern Windward Islands.  This has a good chance of developing in the next 36 hours or so.  Should it develop, models are showing it headed for the mid-Caribbean.  After that, I don't see anything help steer it towards FL or the gulf.  At this point, should it survive the long trek, it looks like it would most likely hit Central America perhaps as far north as the Cancun/Cozumel in a little over a week.

Then there's another strong wave coming off Africa.  This has a long trek across cool water to make before anything could happen.  But sometimes these things manage to do that and in 4 days or so it will become more apparent what if anything it might do.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Cool. Our very own Jim Cantore. n/t

There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is in having lots to do and not doing it." -Mary Wilson Little

[ Parent ]
Hurricane Dean is heading for the Gulf of Mexico area and predicted to become at least a category 4 by the time it gets there n/t
google national hurricane center to read forecasts and discussion.

Always have a plan B.

[ Parent ]
live 10 miles from ocean, 10 mi from Bay, aside a swamp
I live 10 miles (as the buzzard flies) from the Atlantic, 10 miles from the Chesapeake Bay (same buzzard measured it for me), aside the "Great Dublin Swamp" (actual name) and on a road called "Follow Ditch" (the road follows a 10' deep drainage ditch.)  Keep me informed of potential storms, I need to pump up the life rafts.

Actually, if not for the millions (yes, millions) of chickens raised around here it would be a nice place to live, middle of boonies, lots of Bald Eagles and their fellow scavengers the buzzards soaring through the air, deer behind the barn (and not in the garden!)  But come a hurricane, I'm only 30 ft above the waves, and the highest point in the county is literally a mound of chicken ... wastes.  That's NOT the place to ride out the high water, rather a slippery slope in the rain ;)

Not easter shore but Virginia - same neck of the woods. Prep well! n/t

[ Parent ]
Southeastern VA
20 miles from the mouth of the Chesapeake, about 20 miles northwest of Newport News, right on the bank of the James River. Water, water everywhere!

[ Parent ]
Just thinking about that
makes me feel pretty good about being a couple of hundred miles inland from your location!

I served my half century in hurricane country.  There's nothing quite so oppressive as the heat and humidity that always seems to follow a hurricane, when there's no air conditioning to be had, no electricity, no ice.

Truly miserable.  And that while you're sitting in your house (if you're fortunate enough that the house still stands) and looking at the wreck you called a yard, and trying to figure out where to start, when all you want to do is go to sleep, except you can't sleep because it's so damn hot, and the mosquitos think they've been given a ticket straight to mosquito heaven . . .

I really like the foothills.  :)

[ Parent ]
My neck of the woods
I live in southeastern Pa., not terribly far from the Jersey coast, and we've had parts of hurricanes do lots of damage over the years (lived here all my life). Last summer, we had a hurricane-like bad storm; 81,000 residents were without electricity for almost 2 weeks.  This storm also uprooted an 100+ year-old tree, with a root ball about 6 ft. across!  We were lucky; we just lost our phone, cable/Internet for about 12 hrs.; no big deal. My place of employment was closed for 3 days, due to no power.

We also get some bad snowstorms; had 2 major ones last winter, and tornadoes about once a year in the county.

As a kid/young adult (oh, how I wish I could say, "Young adult" in relation to me now!), I've spent 5 days at a shot with no electricity, no running water, no working plumbing, no heat during a very cold snap. My Dad, who built our house, was too proud to call a pro in to fix this stuff, and insisted on doing it himself--which is why I can sit on one of those lidded buckets we use as toilets in emergencies, without losing my balance! LOL

We're 20 miles in from the
Long Island Sound (SW CT).  People around here seem to think that the sound will protect us from a hurricane's direct hit (if coming up from the south).  They forget that Long Island is not that big and hurricanes move fast. It's not going to slow down a hurricane much.  They also don't realize hundreds of people were killed here in the late 30's during a severe hurricane.  We've had plenty of flooding from hurricane left-overs that wreak havoc around here.  And our eletric grid is one of the weakest in the country.  So yes, hurricanes make me a bit nervous!

My wife road out Gloria in West Islip - what a mess!! n/t

[ Parent ]
I grew up around
Dallas, so I'm use to the tornados, and storms, even ice storms. But this snow stuff, and bone chilling freezing cold, IS FOR THE CLINCLY INSANE. ;-(

United we stand: Divided we fall

See, I can't even spell
"clinicly" because I loath it so much! LOL!

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
You should try FresNo!!
High temperatures, bone-drying heat, full sun, little shade....oh...did I mention HOT!!!
And summer is even worse!!

[ Parent ]
For any CT residents
like Goju, Dem, Pixie...

I happened to be channel surfing last night and came across a PBS local program called "Direct Hit" about CT's readiness for hurrcanes.  What timing!  I didn't realize CT hasn't had a direct hurricane hit since 1960.  Hurricane effects since then (trees, flooding) have all been from remnants.  No wonder my neighbors are clueless - they've never experienced anything that intense.  Since CT is so heavily populated with trees they said another hurricane like the one in 1938 could take out 70% of the trees.  I know what just a strong thunderstorm has done to our wooded areas, so I can't imagine a hurricane.  Awfully glad I got a chain saw....

Anyway, if you can catch the program it was interesting because it also covered our readiness in terms of evacuations, hospitals, etc. 

thanks, I'll look for it.
1960 was Hurricane Donna... I was living in NY at the time. I vaguely remember it wasn't as bad as advertised.

there was a bad hurricane in the '50's that flooded Danbury, according to local residents.

Floyd in 1999 caused significant flooding. See


Current natural disaster plan for more.

[ Parent ]
see also
interesting site:


Connecticut Disasters
Tragic Accidents & Deaths

::  Bridgeport, CT Flood Jul 1905
::  Bristol, CT Flood, Feb - Mar 1896 
::  Bristol, CT Flood & Bridge Collapse, Feb 1896 New!
::  Forestville, CT Flood Mar 1896
::  Hartford, CT Flood 1936
::  Waterbury, CT Flood, Feb 1896 New!
::  Winsted, CT Flood, Mar 1896

::  RI & CT Hurricane 1869
::  New London, CT New England Hurricane 1938

::  Winsted, CT Tornado Oct 1883

[ Parent ]
CT flood in 1955 from Hurricanes Connie and Diane
link here:






"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
Hurricane Gloria
in 1985 did a lot of damage here in CT, where it did make landfall.  People lost power for days.  I was in the middle of a house move, unfortunately, when the hurricane hit.  Not only did I loose power for several days at my former residence, but the utility could not turn on my services at the new residence due to the extensive repairs it had to undertake all over the state.  I was put at the end of the queue, and was without electricity or phone for 12 days. 

The Red Cross had set up emergency centers, but those closed when the bulk of customers were able to go home after a few days.  I remember thinking that the lack of light was getting kind of depressing, and the practicalities of trying to get a hot shower and pull myself together to turn up at my new job made me nuts. 

This was, I believe, the hurricane that made Al Roker famous when he was a relatively new local NYC TV correspondent. I still remember that yellow rain slicker he wore during the storm. It wasn't a major storm for the record books, but Gloria really made a mess here.

[ Parent ]
1938 "Long Island Express"
was a really bad storm.  If the 1938 scenario happened today the damage would be huge.  Not a Katrina, but something like Andrew. 

Anyway, everything looks pretty much the same as yesterday, just shifted a little.  I'm watching the same systems, and their status hasn't changed.  The models haven't changed much as far as the tropics go. 

Chantal is close to Newfoundland now and on it's way to nowhere.  The one I'm most interested in today is the tropical wave still east of the Windward Islands.  If/when it develops, it still looks like it'll head straight through the Caribbean and would wind up hitting somewhere south of Cancun. 

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
That tropical system near the southern Windward islands was looking boring yesterday, but since last night it is beginning to look much more interesting.  It's now in the Caribbean, and a hurricane hunter aircraft is going to check it out later today.  The way it looks, I wouldn't be surprised if the hurricane center starts issuing advisories.  Even so, it still looks like it'll be heading towards Belize or Honduras.

Then, there's a little area of interest that popped up in the gulf of Mexico (GOM) yesterday.  Sometimes when a front drops down and lingers in the GOM, a tropical low can spin up this time of year.  That's what's happening, but the low pressure is very broad and diffuse.  There's no signs it's getting organized quite yet.  People in the NE gulf coastal areas should be ready for some rain though, and perhaps a little gusty wind into Saturday.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Tampa Bay area
has had rain for three days running now.  We normally get rain every day this time of year but they are usually afternoon showers that quickly clear up.  This has been three straight days of rain, rain, rain.  Its is supposed to let up tomorrow, but that is what they said yesterday and I woke to a thunderous down pour that hasn't let up.

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

[ Parent ]
It's 'cuz of Global Warming, Kathy
Be very happy we're not in the throws of 'Global Cooling'!! You'd have had 3 days of non-stop snow!!  :-)

[ Parent ]
BB do NOT get me started on that LOL!
I'm not a "believer" in global warming as is touted by most of the MSM.  I think we are in a natural cycle not necessarily a manmade one. 

I won't debate it hear, not the place for it.

Well, its summer and its FL ... that means rain.  I'll get over it.  Better than the drought conditions we've been having the last several months.  Where are those tropical storms when you need them for the rain?!  LOL!

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

[ Parent ]
I'm not one to disagree with you!
And those 'tropical storms'? Apparently they're summering way up in Newfoundland!!

[ Parent ]
When I lived there, many moons ago, I would tan poolside almost everyday. When the rain moved in, everyone would get up and run to get back into their apartments, but I would just stay in my chair and let it blow over. I loved lying there and having the rain pour over me. It would cool me down and then I would just flip to the other side. ;-) It almost always cleared quickly.

We could use some of your rain here in MI. It's been in the 90s several days in a row. I don't tan anymore, so I just don't appreciate the excessive heat the way I used to. Too hard to work in the garden when it's this hot.

[ Parent ]
Nothing has formed yet either with the Caribbean system or the NE Gulf system.  They are still worth watching, but neither is looking very impressive.  I'll start posting again when things look a bit more interesting.  Stay tuned kids!

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Tempest, let's hope it stays
this quiet. I know the folks who live in hurricane prone areas would like it to do so.

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
It's a good thing
that we're off to a slow start.  I'm hoping for the best for all of you in the danger zone, but watching out for you all and will alert for the worst. 

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Thank you
Thank you very much for posting the reports.  Makes me feel a little better that you are keeping wa look out and you know lots more about this stuff than I
thank you!

[ Parent ]
Some Useful links
Here's NOA's Tropical Storm Prediction Center

The Weather Underground has a tropical page which tends to be ahead of the NHC page, I know the chief meteorologist there:

The Midatlantic WX page is maintained by volunteers and they do an excellent job:

I've been through 4 hurricanes and it isn't an experience I recommend.

Be kind, for everyone you meet is engaged in a great struggle.--Philo of Alexandria

My favorite is
I am glued there when the season gets rolling.

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

[ Parent ]
Hawaii + East Atlantic
*** Usual disclaimer:  Personal opinion.  Please see http://www.nhc.noaa.... and your local weather service office http://www.nws.noaa.... for advisories ***

I said I'd come back to this thread when things were looking interesting again. 

I'm sure everyone in Hawaii has already heard about hurricane Flossie churning in the Pacific, currently a dangerous cat 4 with winds over 130mph.  The official track is taking Flossie south of the big island.  This official track represents a compromise of the models.  Even though the official track is south of the island, Hawaii is still in the NHC's cone of uncertainty and Hawaiian residents should be making appropriate preparations.

The models are basically in two distinct camps.  One set of models sees a weaker storm losing it's power to steer itself, and gets pushed by the trades south of the islands.  The other set believes Flossie can maintain greater strength as it approaches the islands and takes a more northerly path to very near the big island.

Watching the latest satellite, Flossie is already tracking north of the official track, which more closely matches the models taking Flossie near the big island on Tues.  Hawaii may be in for more weather than local news may be indicating.  Remember though, that Hawaii is still in within the cone of error of the official track, so at the very least, pay very close attention to this system now.

Flossie is going to run into a wind pattern that should disrupt the storm a bit in 2 days.  Also, it'll be moving over water that is a bit cooler than ideal, but not by much and it could be insignificant.  The net of this makes me believe Flossie will still be pretty strong approaching the islands, which would lend more credence to the northern cluster of models, near the big island.

I'll cut to the chase by summarizing the various scenarios that could play out.  It looks fairly likely than not that the southern portion of the big island, particularly the black sand coast (southeast shore), will see tropical storm conditions beginning Tues.  Should be heavy rain area wide, but especially heavy in usual windward locations.  Strong winds, mostly right along the coast and at higher elevations.

In the eastern Atlantic, there's a new wave to watch.  The system has a lot of integrity already, but there is some dry Saharan air, along with some dust just to it's north.  Dry air and dust is bad for a developing system, and should it try to get some circulation going, it will likely draw some of this into itself.  So if it develops, it will have a hard time strengthening for a while.  Looking at models, should this develop, it looks like it will head for the Caribbean.  It's too early to say where it will go after that, and it's a long way off.  The pattern thus far this summer has made it nearly impossible for systems to move to the gulf coast.  Let's hope it stays that way.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Tempest, this is soooo cool.
The wiki has it's own weather thread. I look forward to your updates. Hope you keep this throught out the winter too.

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
This is really cool-
I live pretty far inland-about 450 miles from the nearest beach-:-(  So hurricanes are not a big concern.  (tornados on the other hand are a major concern!) Still I find all kinds of weather interesting.  Dh is a major weather junkie-he'll watch the weather channel for hours on end.

I hope you keep posting weather events.

[ Parent ]
Thanks both
It's always a pleasure to share.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Tropical Storm Dean
Any thoughts?

First I've heard NC. Were is it? n/t

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
2 storms...opposite sides of the continent.
"(CNN) -- Hurricane Flossie inched closer to Hawaii on Tuesday, bringing with it 110 mph winds, pounding surf, potential floods and prompting state officials to declare a state of emergency for the Big Island.

On the opposite side of North America, Tropical Storm Dean formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and is expected to become the first Atlantic hurricane of the season as it swirls toward the Lesser Antilles and Puerto Rico. Dean is expected to reach hurricane status later this week."
This view is from www.wunderground.com:

[ Parent ]
Yep. Things are starting to heat up
in the gulf and alantic.
Flossie is expected to bring about 10" of rain. And we have snow forcasted! (just kidding)
Actually, New York, Ct, on up, are the cold spots in the country.

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
But I still want to know...
...who picked the name "Flossie" for a hurricane?!? It sounds like it should be nothing more than a big bad French Poodle! LOL!!

Sorry. BB crawls back into his Neanderthal cave...

[ Parent ]
LOL BB!! I was wondering the same thing! n/t

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
The young weatherman in Chicago knew that Flossie was one of the Bobbsey Twins!
Surprising he knew of those books!

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
Guess he doesn't get out much! n/t

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
BB ... what yer mouth son
Flossie was the name of one of my great aunts!  ROFL!!

I'm not kidding.  Aunt Flossie was a mean quilter.

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

[ Parent ]
New York City hot last week!
I was in NY last week when they had the bad storm and all the trains were out.  It was soooo hot, I am sure cool weather would be welcomed

[ Parent ]
No! Cool weather not welcome! ;-)
It was great last week. Nice and warm. It was a cool 73 today. Woke up this morning to a very cold house, as all the windows were open and fams were running. Scrambled for my winter gear!
I just hate the cold, and live in the wrong place!

We haven't had any measurable amount of rain for a long time.

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
LOL!! You sound like my DW!!
She say "Cold weather bad. Hot weather good!"

I say "Hot weather bad. COLD weather good!"

I miss the snow in CT and in the Lake Tahoe area...on the other hand, it's really hard to BBQ in a howling blizzard...

[ Parent ]
I like the snow for one day. Then the
novelity has worn off.

"it's really hard to BBQ in a howling blizzard..."
Near blizzard conditions for us! Hubby and Newphew just couldn't give up the grill.

Oh no. 68-70 for Saturday! ;-( 

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
I second that
"I like the snow for one day. Then the
novelity has worn off."

I feel the same way about the cold.  I lived in NYC for a few years and back in 2001, my first year, I couldn't believe how warm it was and with no snow.  The next year, I was ready to quit my job and move south after about the 3rd time I had to shovel over a foot of snow.

I'll take heat anyday.  I just wish it were more humid here.  :~)

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Tempest---not sure where you are in CA
But I remember, while growing up in San Jose, the weather-heads used to say that the climate in the South Bay Area was nearly exactly like the French Riviera: Just enough rain to keep us from drying out, just enough heat to make summer nice, and just enough humidity to help us breathe.
The last two years, until I moved here to VA, we lived in a lovely town called FresNo. Last July, we had 28 days straight of 110*+ heat, and only about 15% humidity...but I reckoned that, at that temperature? Humidity just didn't matter!!  :-)

However, here in SE Virginia? Last week we had temps in the high 90s and low 100s, with humidity up around 70-85%. UGH!!!!!

[ Parent ]
It'll curl your hair
"SE Virginia? Last week we had temps in the high 90s and low 100s, with humidity up around 70-85%."

That's my kind of summer! 

I'm in interior SoCal.  Summer similar to Fresno but maybe a little more humid in the summer when we get wafted by the monsoon.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
BB - Be glad you're SE VA . . .
'cause a couple hundred miles west of you, where we are, we hit 111 last week, and it looks like the next two days are going to be re-runs.  I can't remember the last time we had more than 1/4 inch of rain, and it's been so hot and dry the yard doesn't even need mowing.  I don't think you guys had it quite as hot down your way - although the difference between 101 and 111 doesn't really give you much in the way of bragging rights.  ;)

[ Parent ]
I'm glad I'm here...
But, with the higher humidity, WMSBG hit 109 last Wednesday. Base temp was 101...I was literally sweating buckets here. And, y'know, I didn't believe it was possible that just walking out the front door could take a person's breath away until last week!
We're in for another hot couple of days again...and the bad thing is, I work in Richmond in the downtown 'concrete jungle', so it's gonna be mighty hot in town again...

[ Parent ]
One of the attractions where I live...
...is the fact that I can walk down to the James River, and just jump in! Not as clean as a swimming pool, but water is water!!!

[ Parent ]
Eeeeewwww BB! Any river
lake is considered contaminated in my mind. I swam in the St. Lawrence twice, and did not like what I saw floating around me, and that was it. Don't even like swimming in public pools.

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
BB - Where you there two years(?) ago when Richmond Flooded?? n/t

[ Parent ]
Kobie---Nah..only got here last October (2006)
But had one helluva Nor'easter come through here (Williamsburg) 2 weekends after I got here...

[ Parent ]
Mmmmm...perfect weather!!
Oh no. 68-70 for Saturday! ;-(

I can actually go out and work in the yard in that heat!!

[ Parent ]
And, now there is a low in the Gulf that looks to bring Brownsville and Corpus a bunch more rain. They sure don`t need that. And, it may even get stronger to at least a tropical storm.

There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is in having lots to do and not doing it." -Mary Wilson Little

Tues. night situation
***Usual disclaimer...***

Hi all.  I've been hanging out at my friend's beach house for a few days and have been mostly ignoring all weather except for the cool ocean breezes.  I'm back now and watching things again.

So Flossie gave the big island the tropical storm-like lashing I expected as the hurricane moved just south of the big island.  A friend of mine just flew out there today and reports that things aren't too bad in Waikiki.  It's breezy there, but no rain so far.  The rain is on the increase and will be there into Thursday as Flossie lingers on its Hawaiian cruise.

***  Dean  ***

Summary:  Tex or Mex, but it's a week away, so questions remain

Dean formed from that tropical wave I mentioned several days ago.  This is the one I believed would move into the Caribbean and would take a while to get it's act together.

It is slowly gaining strength, and now that Dean is getting away from the drier air to the north and northeast, the intensity should be un a definite upswing in the next couple days.  I'm still calling for this to be a Caribbean storm, but after that there are a few question marks.  The global models are trying to weaken the blocking ridge over the southeastern U.S., or move it east out into the Atlantic.  Looking at the archived runs a couple days ago, I see the models were trying to make the storm recurve relatively early and pushed the system towards the Carolinas.  Now they are back to a more westward track.

Hurricanes tend to move west when there is what we call a ridge, which behaves like a high pressure cell several miles up in the atmosphere.  A hurricane will move north if a "weakness" forms in the ridge, or when a cold front dips sufficiently far south to influence the hurricane's track. Sometimes though, a hurricane is too far south from these things to be influenced by them.

I tend to believe a more westward track for a couple of reasons.  Firstly, I think the models are overestimating the influence of the blocking ridge on the storm.  The system is very far south, is moving steadily west, and seems to be in no hurry to gain latitude.  Even if a weakness forms in the blocking ridge, I believe the system needs to be at a higher latitude to be influenced by said weakness. 

The other reason, I just don't see any reason why the ridge is going to break down.  The models seem to be arbitrarily breaking the ridge down with no real physical reason.  I think this is one of the reasons too why the models are waffling on where Dean will recurve north.  North Carolina?  Florida?  Texas?  No recurve? 

One final thing to keep in mind is that the models are of questionable value 7 days out.  But one thing that has been consistent about the ridge is that the west end of the ridge has tended to set up around Texas, where in effect, the "weakness" is over the southwest U.S.  The other interesting feature, which is believable because it's there now, is a trough over the west coast (a front, if you will).

The last two runs have shown a very Rita-like track with the system moving ashore near Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX next Tues, 7 days away.  This is somewhat plausible; however, in my opinion, this represents the eastern-most spot that the storm is likely to make a landfall.  If the storm makes landfall in the U.S., I think Texas would be the most likely area because of the expansive ridge.  I do think it's possible that landfall will be Mexico instead (due to it's current low latitude...can't see why it HAS to move so far north as Texas), and then the moisture/remnant circulation will move northwest towards Texas and the southwest.

As for intensity, I see no reason why this can't be a very strong hurricane through the Caribbean and right up to landfall.

Let's keep watch of this, and in 2-3 days or so, things will be more clear and the models should make more sense.

*** New gulf T.D. ***

Summary:  South Padre, intensity uncertain

There was an upper-level low over the gulf that ended up creating a surface reflection of itself (i.e. surface low).  I've always been fascinated by this process that demonstrates how things going on high in the atmosphere can influence our everyday sensible weather here on the ground.

Anyway, the low should move west/northwest towards the coast (again, influenced by the ridge) and a landfall south of Corpus should occur.  A northern Mexico landfall is also possible.  Intensity is hard to judge on this.  It's not that well organized but is getting better organized.  It's going through cycles where just when the convection seems to be pulling together, it falls apart.  On the other hand, systems like this over the gulf can gather quickly and strengthen fast.  There's no reason that this system can't strengthen quickly like this.  I'm reluctant to even guess how fast this thing will spin up because I frankly just can't tell, and models are not good at forecasting intensity at all.  In this case, it boils down more to when the convection finally lingers over the surface low for a while.  I do believe it will be a stronger entity when it moves ashore than it is now. 

One thing is for sure, south Texas will see a big increase in moisture and is in for some good rain over the next 3 days.

As usual, watch the following for local updates/warnings

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

And here we go...

(CNN) -- A tropical depression is expected to become Tropical Storm Erin later Wednesday in the Gulf of Mexico. It could make landfall Thursday near Corpus Christi, Texas, forecasters said Wednesday.

Tropical Depression Five was about 275 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas, and about 310 miles east of La Pesca, Mexico, at 8 a.m. Its maximum sustained winds were at 30 mph; the threshold for a tropical storm is 39 mph.


The depression -- which will become Tropical Storm Erin if it strengthens -- was moving northwest at about 10 mph and was expected to continue that movement with a turn to the west-northwest by late Wednesday.

"The center of the depression is forecast to be near the lower or middle Texas coast Thursday," the National Hurricane Center said. "The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm prior to making landfall."

The storm may dump up to 5 inches of rain along the middle Texas coast, with isolated amounts of up to 8 inches, forecasters said.

I hope people who live
in hurricane prone areas are getting their preps topped off. Now is the time to do it folks.

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
Cape Cod
Tempest. I live- oh- about 1/2 mile as the crow flys, from the end of the Cape Cod Canal where it opens into Cape Cod Bay. (where we often get something like lake effect snow in the winter just that small area when no one else is getting anything at all.)My house is not in a flood zone because we're way up on a hill and if we're flooded there's more important things to think about- like building an Ark. I will very much appeciate watching your weather thread.  Thanks for thinking of it. Now I can watch for panflu and hurricanes all in one place - one stop shopping!!

The Wiki Network n/t

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
"One stop shopping"
LOL! And perhaps we should go for syndication.  We can be FWN.  I always wanted to be the TV weather guy! :~)

Thanks Cinda.  I will be watching, but I'm sometimes away from my computer for a couple days like I was this weekend.  I'm mostly geeking around with this stuff during hurricane season though so of course I will keep you in mind when something looks like it's headed your way.

Perhaps if people like I will do winter storms too.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Yes, please do Tempest!
I would rather get my weather from you and from the ya-ho on my local station! I think your better at it than he is!

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
Winter Cape Cod
I know what you mean about the 'Bay Effect Snow.'  I won't miss the nor'easters.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Gloria, Weather, et al
1) We followed Gloria about 36 hours later up to Maine to visit BIL.  Got there...no power, except for generator.  We had a great time. Moose spaghetti...

2) It is hot.  105 today. 104 yesterday.  My air is out in my vehicle. Long drive to work....hot...really!!!

3)  Coldest place in continental U.S. a couple of days ago...Wisdom, Montana....30 degrees

4)  Send us a Hurricane to Alabama.  We need the rain. We are at least 20 inches below normal rainfall. It would be nice to break the blast furnace heat we're having.

"The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. Never say can't. Never give up. Never surrender."

You better be careful what you wish for. LOL! n/t

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

[ Parent ]
Yep! Somebody saw you type that! ;-)

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
Tsunami Watches extend to Hawaii
Tsunami Watches extended to Hawaii
Hat Tip Disaster Cat@CE

Just a head's up for anyone in the area - this is just a watch the warnings are for the South American coast but anyone in the area may want to turn on their radio or TV for local alerts...Disastercat
220 PM HST WED AUG 15 2007



AT 0220 PM HST.


ORIGIN TIME - 0141 PM HST 15 AUG 2007




0214 AM HST THU 16 AUG 2007


United we stand: Divided we fall

7.5 Earthquake in Peru caused this alert! n/t

[ Parent ]
7.9, not 7.5....
according to this... http://earthquake.us...

but Reuters says two quakes at 7.7 and 7.5 ...http://uk.reuters.co...

maryinhawaii---take care!!!

[ Parent ]
When I saw that alert, I had
to post it here hoping Maryinhawaii would see it, if she doesn't already know about it. she probably does. But just in case.
Yes, please take care mary. Your situation has increased in potential diaster. We're keeping our fingers crossed for you!

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
Fault propagation really one quake
I saw that the 3 quakes were over a span of 60 seconds or so.  Sometimes one large quake can appear that way:  as 3 along the same fault over the same time period in which the ground is shaking.  So I think it's possible the 7.7 and two 7.5s could actually just be one larger 7.9.  In any event, big quake!

I just woke up from my 'night's sleep,' so have some catching up to do with that quake.  I did notice that all 3 were along the same fault and within the time frame you could expect one 7.9 to last. 

Earthquakes and canes and virus, oh my!

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
NOAA Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
Tsumani Messages for All Regions

For the wider Pacific Region:

For the Hawaii notice given above:

Nothing newer that I could find.

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain

[ Parent ]
CNN Reporting that Tsunami Warnings and Watches Canceled
Meanwhile, tsunami warnings and watches issued after the quake for several Central and South American countries were canceled Wednesday night, as was a tsunami advisory for Hawaii.


ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain

[ Parent ]
Trypical Storm Dean, now Hurricane Dean n/t

United we stand: Divided we fall

Believe that is a little ahead of schedule n/t

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

[ Parent ]
Kathy, ahead of schedule? n/t

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
I was just remarking
on the fact that they hadn't expected it to go to hurricane strength until Friday or later.  LOL!  Never try and tell a hurricane what it is going to do, 'cause surely it will do something else just to drive you crazy. ROFL!

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

[ Parent ]
It dawned on me later on what you
where talking about. It was a "duh" moment! Geeze, sorry about that.

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
NHC uses a Magic 8-ball for intensity predictions
While the current technology is good with tracks, intensity is very hard to forecast, even short-term.  But yesterday at 11 a.m., the NHC called for it to be a 60 knot storm (70mph) by this time, and a 65kt storm (75mph) by 12 hours from now (about 11 p.m. eastern Thurs.).  The forecasts since then had called for attainment of hurricane strength by 11 a.m. this morning.  So they aren't far off. 

They are not too far off.  Their current intensity forecasts have it reaching cat 3 no earlier than 48 hrs from now.  Will be interesting to see how it pans out.  They don't have a good record for accurate strengthening/weakening rates.  Nobody really knows all of the necessary conditions to perfectly predict it, and I believe it depends on smaller scale or more complicated physics which the models simply aren't capable of computing, even if they do know how to do it in theory.

Remember hurricane Charley in '04?  It went from cat 2 to a higher end cat 4 almost cat 5 in 6 hours and the NHC wasn't even close in forecasting the explosive strengthening.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
The general trend...
The general forecast intensity trend is usually good, it's just the magnitude that is pretty much impossible to nail.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
That's updated
from what I had read yesterday.  I'll have to keep a closer eye on the changing track.  Last thing I want to do is be surprised by a Cat. 3+ hurricane.  Oy!

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

[ Parent ]
Erin making landfall along Padre Island Ntl Seashore around 9 a.m. CDT
*** Usual disclaimer...***

It's a minimal TS now, and not organizing.  It should make landfall with sustained winds no greater than 45 mph.

Right now, winds are relatively light across the Corpus/Port Mansfield area.  The strongest winds should be along the immediate beach locales along Padre Island and over the coastal waters.  The biggest story with this looks like will be the heavy rain, and possible severe weather in the form of tornadoes just to the north of where it makes landfall. 

Tornadoes often accompany tropical systems moving ashore, and usually in the quadrant just to the right of its motion vector.  So for a system like Erin moving west, that area is immediately north of the storm center.

The system should dissipate pretty quickly after it moves ashore, but the moisture will linger in south Texas for a couple days bringing flooding rains.  All-in-all, not so bad.

All eyes turn to Dean.  The track I believe it will take remains unchanged since last night's post.  I am still seeing a likely landfall in Mexico as it moves west.  Texas isn't out of the woods with Dean yet. But my confidence is growing that Texas should escape the winds, though maybe not the rains.  The models have stopped 'not making sense' with its trajectory versus the large scale weather patterns as I had complained about yesterday.

It will move ashore along the Yucatan with a second landfall in northeastern MX.  As I mentioned yesterday, there is little standing in the way of this system from becoming very strong.  It has just reached hurricane status and I believe it's on its way to becoming a major hurricane, at least a cat 3.  Should remain strong as it moves across the Caribbean, hitting the Caymans and Jamaica pretty hard.  My rough estimate of timing, I believe it will be near Jamaica around Sunday, then the Yucatan Monday/Tuesday, and making its final landfall in northeastern Mexico Wednesday.  Hurricane warnings should be going up for some of the windward islands soon. 

On behalf of all our friends along the gulf coast:  Viva the blocking ridge!!!  I have to say though, with this kind of pattern we have right now, the east coast is in some danger for any hurricanes that might develop farther north than Dean did.  Fortunately, there's nothing immediate that I see that might do this.

For official forecasts by people who get paid to make them, see below :~)


Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

The sky is getting darker,
maybe, just maybe, the rain will hit us today. Some wells are already dry around here, as is my BIL's. He's getting water from us! Depending on how much rain we get, will determine if there will be any flooding. We are that dry.

Could go for a good thunderstorm!

United we stand: Divided we fall

"Hurricane" Dean

"Models Show Hurricane Dean Moving Toward Yucatan"
Forecaster: 'It's Going To Be A Huge, Dangerous Storm'

POSTED: 5:09 pm EDT August 15, 2007
UPDATED: 8:08 am EDT August 16, 2007

ORLANDO, Fla. -- The latest projected path of movement for Hurricane Dean jogged the system farther south away from Florida and toward the Yucatan as it grows into a massive Category 4 storm.


Once Hurricane Dean moves near the Caribbean, an area of high pressure over the United States will likely play a large role in its path.

"If the high pressure is weak, then scenario one will play out and the storm would turn north," Local 6 meteorologist Larry Mowry said. "That's worst-case scenario for us here in Florida. Scenerio two is that the high holds steady and the system moves into the Gulf and scenario three is that the high gets stronger and pushes Hurricane Dean toward the Yucatan Peninsula."

Another weather problem today is heat-
It got up to 105 in Ky yesterday and we had a power outage last night.  FIL said a substation  "blew" because of high energy use.  I don't know where he got that info but makes sense to me.  NWS has issued a heat advisory for Kentucky_I'm sure Alabama has one as well because I think its even hotter there.  Some school systems have shut down, and several areas have boil water advisories.  Calling for very high temps again today.  :-( 

[ Parent ]
Ouch Greenmom
That sounds terrible.  I hope it doesn't last long, cuz I think the heat will (last a while).

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
GreenMom- boil water advisories?
When it rains it pours - even in the heat

  I am guessing the boil water advisory is from the water treatmeant plant having a loss of power.

  Wow. With all these stories I am surprised more people do not prep!

  I have to remeber disasters are very infrequent - but the cost of not planning can be higher than the cost of preps.


[ Parent ]
I think the loss how power had something to do with it but-
also when reservoirs and ground water levels begin to retract (because of heat, lack of rain) theres a greater danger of contamination.

The loss of power was not so bad for us because we had bottled water, plenty of ready to eat food, batteries, kerosene lamps, a genny, etc.  We sat outside and enjoyed the evening-it had cooled off by then.  But we didn't know how widespread the outage was-was it another huge blackout, or just local.  But I'm with you-I just don't understand why why why, people don't prep.

[ Parent ]
Sigh - I fear it is the 21st century.

  Hi. Good for You! A prepper Poster child on why preps make life better - not just survivable.

  Sigh, I fear people do not prep becuase "they are safe in the 21st century"

  Somehow tornados, hurricanes, earthquakes, floods, poweroutages, plauges, etc won't every happen. They are all something of the past.

  It is ironic. Science is discovering not only that earthquakes and volcanos have had happened in places we never thought they could but they have names for the upcomming disasters.

  Each year we create a list of upcomming hurricanes and then act like they will never happen.


[ Parent ]
Dean Thurs. night update
***Usual disclaimer...always watch NHC and NWS for official info***

*** Summary, my thinking remains the same.  Through the Caribbean, impacting Jamaica and the Caymans, then on to the Yucatan (possibly a big storm for Cancun/Cozumel).  Then another landfall in NE Mexico.  However, folks in the lower Texas coast, keep a close eye on this!  ***

Dean is blowing through the windwards near Martinique right now, very early Friday.  It's moving quickly west at about 25mph into the eastern Caribbean.

There is an upper level low (ULL, a weakness in the ridge) over the Bahamas a fair distance north and west of Dean right now.  As I've said before, such a feature can draw a hurricane towards it and such features often allow hurricanes recurve towards the north out of the tropics.  This ULL though is moving west with Dean chasing it. 

My thinking remains the same as it has the last 3 days, that Dean will track west across the Caribbean south of Puerto Rico, and likely having a big impact on Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.  Most likely, it should then continue towards the Yucatan where I believe it will make its first landfall near Cancun/Cozumel very likely as a major hurricane (cat 3 or more).  Second landfall is likely to be northeastern Mexico.

Questions arise after it hits the Yucatan.

The southern US remains under a strong ridge except for that ULL feature when Dean nears the Yucatan.

As Dean approaches Yucatan (Monday), it appears as though the ULL looks like it will be over Texas and weakening and lifting northwest.  This is a borderline situation where the ULL has the potential to influence Dean and draw it more northwest than west.  Likewise, some of the numerical models suggest that that will happen, while others keep a more westerly or west-northwesterly track after the Yucatan.

Obviously, a lot depends on how this ULL ends up verifying in the models.  If it ends up being a little farther south than the models are saying, then it could give Dean a better northward component to it's generally westward track.  Given  that the ULL stays ahead of Dean, at this point I feel it will keep on a more southerly track.  There is a chance that if the models are way off, Dean could veer northwest earlier through the Yucatan straights between Cancun and western Cuba (i.e. first landfall wouldn't be Yucatan).  With the open ended questions that remain about the ULL, folks in deep south Texas should watch this carefully.  We are still 5 days away from any potential U.S. approach.  But with a system this strong, a landfall even near Tampico could still have a significant impact on Brownsville. 

Intensity:  Dean is a cat 2 now with winds sustained around 90-95mph.  There is some dry stable air seen in the northeastern Caribbean.  I wouldn't be surprised if strengthening of Dean is slow in the near term (in the next day) even though waters are almost hot.  Towards the central Caribbean, there's very little to keep Dean for strengthening, and strengthening quickly.  There could even be some explosive strengthening, in the central/western Caribbean and the rate of increase in winds should pick up then.  I am confident this storm will reach major hurricane status (cat 3 or higher) and will likely be a major when it hits the Yucatan.

It will take a bit of a blow after crossing the Yucatan but when in the Bay of Campeche, restrengthening should occur and it could be a major again for the second landfall.

Again, folks in south Texas should stay tuned and should at least expect another good batch or rain and at perhaps some wind even if the southern track is what happens.  It's also possible you could see some tornadoes because of the favorable quadrant you'll be in.  If the ULL ends up influencing Dean better, south Texas will get more action than that!

Forecasts from people who put your tax dollars to work are at these sites!:


Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Dean bombing?
I am able to monitor the hurricane hunter recon data and just noticed that the central pressure dropped from 970 to 965mb in a short period of time.  That 965 was just measured a few minutes ago.  This thing might be exploding right now.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Dean bombing
thanks for keeping us updated!

[ Parent ]
Tempest- I admit- I didn't pay much attention to the weather part of freshman general science back in 1974 so please if you don't mind- is the drop in pressure in Dean good or bad? I know when we have a front come through and the pressure drops I get a migraine- the faster it drops the worse and quicker the headache- not so much for snow as for rain.  I tried looking it up but I need to read it in english- not weatherpeoplese.
  Thanks, Cinda

[ Parent ]
Bombing clarified and recon update
Cinda, you'd be getting a cluster headache with this one!  Yes, pressure dropping means the storm is getting stronger.  It dropped from 970mb to 965mb in 2 hours.  The latest measurements from the hurricane hunters just found it had dropped to 960mb at 12:05 EDT.  There's a general conversion you can use for the hurricanes pressure to the kinds of winds you'd expect in a hurricane and this suggests that the hurricanes winds have likely increased over 20 mph in the last  4 hours.  That's a huge rate of strengthening.  The recon is not seeing a wind increase of that magnitude but it's not surprising.  The pressure change leads the wind change, and often there is a lag.  I believe in a few hours we will hear from the NHC that Dean is a major hurricane.  As a meteorologist, I'm really really impressed (of course, it's a bad thing) with how this is strengthening right now.

That being said, the latest model run coming out now is suggesting what I thought before:  the 'weakness' in the ridge I mentioned won't have too much of an effect on the storm.  While the run 12 hours ago was suggesting a landfall close to Brownsville, TX, the latest is depicting it a reasonable distance south of that.  There is another model though that thinks the weakness will have a significant impact and is showing a landfall near Houston.  My personal analysis leads me to believe the Mexico landfall is more likely.  But Texas landfall is not impossible.  Stay tuned...

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Officially upgraded to major status
Citing the drop in pressure, the NHC has upgraded Dean to a cat 3 at 1:45 p.m.  Their official forecast path show the 'cane approaching the mouth of the Rio Grande on Wednesday.  I believe it should end up going south of there, but folks in Texas should take their forecast very seriously of course.  Even my forecast takes the hurricane close enough to Brownsville where they'd get plenty of rain and some potentially damaging wind.

In the spirit of fluwiki, folks as far north as Houston should be thinking about 'what if' and be sure they know what to do in the event of an evacuation.  As Houstonians know, evacuating is not easy from there so early preparation is important.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Dean was just upgraded...again.

Dean strengthens to Category 4 hurricane, heads to Gulf of Mexico

(CNN) -- Dean strengthened yet again Friday, becoming a Category 4 hurricane with dangerous 135-mph winds as it pounded Caribbean islands and headed toward the Gulf of Mexico.

It's on track to brush southern Hispaniola on Saturday and bear down on Jamaica on Sunday, forecasters said.

By Monday morning, as Dean nears the Yucatan, its maximum sustained winds are forecast to reach 150 mph, CNN Meteorologist Bonnie Schneider reported.

That's just under the 155-mph threshold that would make it a Category 5, the most intense category on the Saffir-Simpson scale of hurricane intensity used by meteorologists.


It was too soon to tell whether Dean would strike Texas, but Gov. Rick Perry declared the storm an imminent threat to the state.

[ Parent ]
Thanks BB. And recon is out again! n/t

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Hurricane during a pandemic - would we have the info?
  With 30% abseenteeism this kind of discussion may be a luxury during a bad pandemic - or not so bad pandemic when 30% of the people SIP for two weeks.

BTW - I know it is wishful thinking that 30% of the general population could SIP for two full weeks. 

How low will it go?
Recon about 2 hrs ago found pressure as low as 937 mb.  So it's gone from 970, to 965 2hrs later, to 960 2hrs after that.  6 hours after that it's 937.  So the explosive strengthening continues.  I've never seen a hurricane drop that much that fast.

Unfortunately I can't look at the recon so much real-time.  I'm at my bf's for dinner and don't want to be rude.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
TEmpest - Dean has dropped to 920 mB
The lower the number the greater the vacume and the worse the storm.

  BTW - Hurricane Allen which "Slamed the texas coast and then weakened" in 1980 holds the record @ 910mB.


[ Parent ]
Cat 5!!!
Dean has continued its very impressive strengthening rate.  New real-time recon info: it is at or flirting with cat 5 with surface winds getting close to 155mph.  Pressure is down to around 930mb or slightly lower.  This puts  the pressure down as low as some of the more historically important and destructive hurricanes.  Recon is just about done for tonight.

Texans should pay close attention.


There should be an important update at 2 am EDT.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Pray/Send good wishes to folks in the Caribbean...my heart goes out to Jamaicans
This is serious.  As I've been all along over the past few days, I'm worried about Jamaica and the Caymans, and eventually, Cancun.  Now it's looking like my initial forecast will come to pass.  This will likely be more devastating for Jamaica in a sense than a panflu striking the islands.  Major disaster coming and I feel horrible for the inhabitants of this poor island where most have no where to go.  The result of this may teach us a few lessons (or at least remind us) here at FluWiki.

Late Sunday, Dean will be unleashing its full fury on the island of Jamaica which will take more or less a direct hit.  A cat 5 is all but guaranteed at the time of impact.  It's awful to watch this unfold and know the likely result, and little can be done.

The current models, and the NHC official forecast is right in line with the forecast I have prognosticated all along since Monday or Tues.  The weakness in the ridge should migrate westward consistently ahead of Dean, so a slight northerly veer is possible, but a hard right turn towards the U.S. does not appear likely at this time. 

After plowing through Jamaica, it should hit northeastern Yucatan in the Cancun area.  It'll move across the Yucatan, weakening some, but still not by much, and will make a second landfall in northeastern MX, close to the US border.  NHC's official forecast has a landfall about 100 miles south of Brownsville, close enough for significant impacts especially when talking about a cat 4 or 5 'cane.  I still believe that folks south of Houston should be on guard and know what their plan will be should an evacuation be called, even if it's not likely.  It's the Fluwiki way.  We hope for the best, but anticipate the worst, and a landfall in Texas is still not off the table.

Dean is on the cusp of cat 4 and cat 5, and really, after cat 3, it's mostly an academic distinction.  There's little in the way to knock Dean's intensity down except for a possible short traverse across the northern Yucatan.  It's moist and swampy with lots of lowlands through there, so it probably won't make a big dent.  Once over the very warm waters of the Bay of Campeche, it'll likely regain cat 4/5 status quickly in time for it's arrival on the northeastern coast of MX, probably around of Tampico, and a fortunate-enough distance south of Brownsville (though still, it's 5 days away so don't let your guard down in south Texas).  This would be late Wed.

Everyone please keep best wishes for the folks in the Caribbean.  Godspeed.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Those poor people
...as if life for the average citizen in Jamaica isn't already hard enough...they're in my thoughts and prayers.

Thanks for keeping us posted.

[ Parent ]
Yucatan news sources re: preparations for & impact of Hurricane Dean
In Spanish: http://www.yucatan.c...  (newspaper)

In English: http://www.hurricane... (blog)

[ Parent ]
Thanks AlohaOR! n/t

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
  I went to Jamaica a few months after a hurricane went through that country back in the late 80's.  We were repairing roof damage.  It was unbelievable.  They were just getting the first bananas to produce then.  It wiped them out. 
  Tin roofs gone (or as they called them "zinc roofs").  The small streams in the mountains became raging "class five or six" infernos of mud and water destroying everything in their path. 
  The jungle vegetation is not deep rooted.  The vegetation is specialized in shallow root systems because there is always plenty of moisture.  No deep roots to survive class 3, 4, or (especially) 5 winds.
  Most everyone in Jamaica is living pretty close to the edge as far as survival is considered also.  This may push them over the edge.

"The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. Never say can't. Never give up. Never surrender."

Hide In the Hills
Thanks for sharing your perspective on how bad it was back then.  I have never been to Jamaica, I only know what I've heard and read and can only imagine. 

It's funny that I was just writing the post after yours as your were writing yours, and I think we both were talking about Gilbert.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Worse news for Jamaica
Sometimes very strong hurricanes develop multiple concentric eye features.  These often undergo cycles where old inner eyes erode and a larger outer eye replaces it.  It's kind of like a snake shedding its skin.

When this happens, on one hand, the storm usually weakens temporarily until the new eye congeals and tightens back up.  On the other hand, while eyewall replacement cycles are occurring, the area of strongest winds often expands greatly.

Right now, current recon reports suggest that the hurricane force winds extend 100 miles from the eye (or a 200 mile diameter region).  With the storm moving at 17 mph, and it heading straight for Jamaica, they will likely see at least 12 hours of hurricane force winds.

Dean is still a high cat 4 with winds around 150.  Recent recon is still investigating the storm right now and although it hasn't find winds higher than that yet, the pressure on this pass is 7mb lower than last time it checked.  Again, with the eyewall replacement going on, it may actually have lower winds right now, but the hurricane forece wind radii is more important in this case.

Recent recon from a few minutes ago found the lowest pressure yet, 920mb.  This compares with Hurricane Andrew that had a minimum pressure of 922mb and near Hugo, 918mb, so Dean is in the big leagues.  It is getting near the list of top 10 deepest (by minimum pressure) hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.  Number 10 had a min pressure of 914mb.  For perspective, that means that at the surface in the eye of the hurricane, the pressure is the same as it would be at about 3000 feet altitude in a standard atmosphere.  The hurricane has basically 'sucked out' 3000 feet of air.

The last time Jamaica was hit with a hurricane near this magnitude was Gilbert in '88.  I don't know how long they were buffetted with hurricane force winds though.  But the winds were similar.  It also dumped over 20" of rain.  It caused $4 billion (USD) and caused 45 deaths.  The number of deaths was surprisingly low given how so many live in shanties.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Yea, that is really strange......
  I'm sure that you are correct.  It was Gilbert.  We replaced one roof on a church in the mountains. The only thing remaining of the church was the concrete block wall.  The tin sheeting and the wooden trusses were totally missing. 
  When we left the next evening, the trusses and roof were rebuilt. 
  Their sincerity in being helped was very moving to all of us there.

"The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. Never say can't. Never give up. Never surrender."

[ Parent ]
Jamaican government effectual in the face of disaster?
It will be interesting to note how Jamaica handles the hurricane recovery.  Will things fall into chaos?  Are there lessons to be gleaned for how well a pandemic would be handled?  Can hurricane disaster management even be compared to pandemic disaster management?  Thoughts?

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Yes Tempest, I think
it would be very similar. You have to deal with hospitals/HCW shortage, infrastructure, relief/recover, schools, looting, price gouging. Yes, very similar.

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
Months later after Gilbert
the price of plywood and lumber was still very high in Jamaica. Sort of like it was in the U.S. after Andrew. I was purchasing lumber for a small house after Andrew. The construction price was 20% higher than I thought it would be. That was even by going as cheap as possilbe.  We have never gone back to "before Andrew" price levels. 

"The journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step. Never say can't. Never give up. Never surrender."

[ Parent ]
Course remains status quo
*** I'm thinking of starting a tropical weather part 2 if people are interested in this thread.  This one is getting a little long.  Please let me know if you'd like me to continue.  This isn't so directly flu related so I'm not sure, but I'm happy to do so if you all would like ***

So I'm still up watching things.  Working 56 hrs a week and going to grad school, I've gotten used to sleeping when I blink.

There are no other storms or even interesting waves to talk about besides Dean.  But there's a lot going on with this major hurricane.

Dean is going through some reorganization.  It has weakened in a sense, I believe only temporarily as it approaches Jamaica.  The latest reconnaisance found at most 125 mph winds while a new eyewall formed.  While the max windspeed is down, the pressure is still suggestive of an extremely strong hurricane, down to 918mb, lower than Andrew.  The temporary weakening of wind is normal.  It may pop back up to 150 mph very quickly, even by the next recon trip in a few hours. 

The area of damaging winds on the other hand has expanded.  The track appears to be going a tad farther south and may just miss the Jamaica coastline.  But Kingston and Montego will still have a very long period of damaging winds to deal with, and some large surge, the worst of it tomorrow during the afternoon and evening.

Next up is the Yucatan where Cozumel and Cancun will be dealing with ferocious winds and storm surge.  After it crosses the Yucatan it will most likely plow into northeastern Mexico, as I've been expecting all along.  Hopefully it will miss the more populated areas.  Texas appears to be out of the crosshairs as almost all the models are now in agreement.

I have my fingers crossed that Dean won't restrengthen quickly enough, or it might skirt just far enough south to make a difference between major damage and catastrophic damage.


Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Thanks for the info
Please do keep this thread going - it's very informative, and gives so much more info that the NHC updates.  Being in south central Texas, I'm still watching carefully...

One question.  Is the ridge of high pressure building as predicted, or have there been any changes there?

Thanks for taking your time to do this, Tempest!

[ Parent ]
Part 2 would be good
I like your comments and one stop shopping, so it would be good for me

[ Parent ]
it's a prep and a disaster reminder
so feel free...

[ Parent ]
Strengthening - 14 hrs to Jamaica n/t

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

I met the originators of the smog blog at a conference. Great people, interested in panflu.


U.S. Air Quality
The Smog Blog

The above is graphic intensive!! Tempest, you might find it of interest if you didn't already know about it.

Blogging the Weather
I'm blogging the entire tropical season here (scroll down.)  Tempest, we'd love to have you come over and add your professional experience.  You can cross-post, if you like.

Be kind, for everyone you meet is engaged in a great struggle.--Philo of Alexandria

Thanks all
I will continue then.

Thanks Melanie.  Are you OK with the fact that I am only doing this when there is something particularly threatening to talk about?  If so I don't mind if you take my post and put it into your blog.  I prefer to just post once, and I've already committed myself here. 

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Tempest, keep on
This is the all hazards approach to preps, and that is the way we should be thinking about it.  Every single part of North America has natural disaster threats which should make everyone go "Hmmm" with regard to planning.

I have hurricanes, tornadoes and ice storms to deal with here and, boy, did I learn a lot about prepping when my fridge died as Hurricane Isabel hit Virginia in 2003.  That was my wake up call.  There was no ice anywhere.

I'm an experienced camper, so going to the propane stove and freeze dried food wasn't a stretch.

Will Stewart, who posts here occasionally, and his family do a power off weekend once a month to test their preps.  He is the most prepped individual I have ever met and his guides to prepping (on the link) are the ones I use.

Store what you use, use what you store and keep rotating your stock.  Fortunately, I love lentils and other dried legumes, which I can soak overnight and cook on the propane stove.  Tastybites are cheap and a boon to those who love mild Indian food.

My suggestion to everyone is that you go and rent a tent, sleeping bag and a camp stove and cooking equipment and then hie yourself to your closest camping store and try the food under the minimalist conditions of camping.  No, not in your back yard but in some state or provincial park that has minimal accommodations.  I have a sun shower, enclosure and redwood floor mat for camping at parks with no showers and I can set this up anywhere.  Load up a good cooler and see how long the ice lasts:  you'll get a clue about non-perishable foods and water.

I'm an experienced backpack/canoe camper and you do learn to  keep the weight down when you have to pack it on your back.  A good sleeping bag and and mat are essential if you are going to light out for the provinces, or bag it on a friend's or relative's floor.

You are going to be under enough stress.  You need to sleep well.  I use this but I always keep an extra pillow in the car in case I need to sack out someplace that isn't home.  I'm allergic to feathers.

I live in hurricane country and I've dialed the driver's seat back and slept in the car more than once.  I keep the sleeping bag in the trunk.  Just in case.  I've been stuck in ice storms more than once when I had to bunk someplace that wasn't home.

This is just plain practical thinking.  Oh, and I top up the gas tank when it hits half full.

Are you ready to move if you have to?  Do you have an emergency checklist and a way to take your pets with you?

Get your act together.

Be kind, for everyone you meet is engaged in a great struggle.--Philo of Alexandria

[ Parent ]
Wow, can I come over when it h5n1 goes global?!? n/t

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
All-hazzard preps
I, too, keep stuff in my car, even though I seldom travel very far nowadays.  I live at the top of an almost mountainside ("hill" just seems too small), with narrow, twisty roads, for about 1.5 miles of fun in icy weather.  I work 10 miles from home; most of that is pretty flat, and on highway, but it's that last leg I dread.  I keep a sleeping bag in the trunk, and a blanket; a 6-in-1 hand=crank flashlight, FM radio, siren, spotlight, and cell phone charger, a change of clothing, boots, rain jacket.poncho, etc. in the car. If I see cars having trouble turning while at the stoplight, my plan to is park in the CVS parking lot; stay in the store until closing (food and drink there, but, alas, no public bathroom--but my dentist is right across the street, so I could go there), and camp in the car overnight, or until DH can get home to help me; as he's a truck driver, and his hours wildly vary, I may have to wait overnight (almost had to do this once when we lived elsewhere--I slid off the snowy/icy highway, got stuck, and the weather conditions/dusk made it doo dangerous to hoof it the last 1/8 mile to the apartment).  Before the last incident happened, I would've laughed if someone suggested that, in a large suburb of a city, I may have to camp out in my car, due to weather...but this goes to show that, even close to home, you may need emergency supplies in your car. (I could walk up the mountain, but this would be very dangerous, especially at dusk.  I wouldn't risk it.)

[ Parent ]
Ohhh, no bathroom during the night.
Have you seen Freshette, "the feminine urinary director"?


I haven't used mine yet, but I'm glad to have it.  That, a plastic screw-top jar, and a roll of tp.

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
But if you can't write your name in the snow with it
I don't see the point. 

Be kind, for everyone you meet is engaged in a great struggle.--Philo of Alexandria

[ Parent ]
Go ahead, why not try to write your name with the tubing?
I just don't want to pee on my feet!  (Maybe you're too young to have this problem.)  ;-)

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
Online radio broadcast from Jamaica
It's quite informative, and actually fairly entertaining, mon.  They seem to be weathering the hurricane pretty well considering.


Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Oh my, they're brave at the station
They've been having occasional huge thuds at the station they are broadcasting from.  You can actually hear it in the broadcast.  They said they are losing some of their zinc roofing.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Tempest, that is great. I've
saved that to my favorites. Thanks!

United we stand: Divided we fall

[ Parent ]
Passing by Kingston
It made its closest approach about 40 miles from Kingston with 145 mph max winds.  Hurricane force winds are raking the city.  Somewhat fortunately, the hurricane went a little farther south of the coast than expected.  I say somewhat because Dean had two eyewalls earlier, one concentric 16 miles from the center, and one 36 miles from the center (close to that 40 mile distance from Kingston).  The eyewall is normally where the worst winds are, and the outer eyewall was strongest when the hurricane hunters flew through earlier today.

The hurricane hunters are now enroute again and reports are starting to come in that will give us a clue on Dean's current strength, and more importantly with this particular storm, its structure.

That upper low has retreated, and the ridge in the southern U.S. is strengthening.  This has knocked Dean a little farther south even than I thought.  So the official NHC track has now shifted even farther south and predicts the cane to hit Yucatan a decent distance south of Cancun/Cozumel.  Great news, but it remains to pass.

I had thought that Dean looked like it was strengthening on satellite, but the hunters found that it had not.  Obviously there are internal processes going on in Dean that are too small to be seen in satellite, so the hurricane hunter reports are the most important info we can get.  So waiting to see what they find.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Dean interacting with mountains nearby, but now has single eyewall
Dean has weakened a bit over the last 12 hours or so, partly due to mountains in Dominica and Jamaica, but also due to eyewall structural changes.  Dean's moving away from mountains, and recon suggested a single eyewall has emerged sometime in the last 8 hours.  Also, very recent recon suggests Dean may now be on the upswing again.  Dean still has a very real potential to hit cat 5.  Waters ahead are closer to 31C, way more than the usual 28C to keep a hurricane healthy.  Outflow remains good.  Still, I wonder if this storm may become complicated in its inner structure when it strengthens again.  I am fairly certain of some strengthening in the near term though as it approaches the Caymans.

Models depict the strong ridging in the gulf coast area may not remain so strong.  A weakness may form along the upper Texas coast in about a day and a half.  It's weak and far north relative to the storm.  Don't believe it has the potential to affect a landfall along the Yucatan, but it's influence may shift the storm slightly north again.  Cancun beware.  Fortunately, people have been getting out of there in earnest.  Won't be a fun place to be.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Please tell me that Dean is making other people prep?
  One silver lining in this monsterous cloud called Dean would be in getting otehrs to prep.

  One flashlight for every person - with batteries, spare batteries and spare bulb would be great.

  Next - being able to cood during a power outage.

  Dean headed to Cancun. Interesting take on emergency shelters and getting the word out to remote fishing villages.



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