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What is your PPF? 12-17-07 to 01-23-08

by: Oremus

Mon Dec 17, 2007 at 13:30:42 PM EST


What is your current personal pucker factor?
Oremus :: What is your PPF? 12-17-07 to 01-23-08
Note:  If you are at an 11, you truly are a corpsicle, and no longer have a PPF.
Poll
What is your current PPF?
0 -- I'm a corpsicle, no pulse at all
1 -- Novocaine, I can't feel a thing
2 -- BBRFWK, I'll wish I was a corpsicle tomorrow
3 -- What a great day today is. Woo Hoo!
4 -- Aaaah, a bee in the car!
5 -- Aaaah, a black widow on the steering wheel
6 -- Brakelights!!!
7 -- No brakes!!!!!
8 -- No insurance!!!!!!!!
9 -- Swerving
10 -- Running the redlight through traffic, Yikes!

Results

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What is your PPF? 12-17-07 to 01-23-08 | 40 comments
Vigilent, not freaking
While Pakistan has raised my level of vigilence, it hasn't really raised my PPF.  I'm firmly stuck in the idea ... marathon, not spring.

While, this may be the precursor to "it," for me jacking up my PPF would be counterproductive.  This time of year is already stressful to a certain extent ... some pleasant aspects to the stress some not ... and since it only comes around once a year and we never know what next year will bring, I'm trying to maintain some normalcy rather than putting everything on hold.

I'm in a "wait and see" pattern.

On the other hand, I'm probably going this week to make another large rice purchase which is something that I haven't done in a long while.  I have just over 11 months of food preps (2000 cal/day/person) and I struggle to get passed each monthly plateau.  A large rice purchase will kick me over the top and, at the very least, I'll have some to share should it come to that.

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

that should be sprint, not "spring" ... honestly LOL! n/t


Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead
[ Parent ]
Read the PPF scale backwards
Hi,

 I kinda read the PPF scale backwards but settled on "Thre is a bee in the car."

 While I feel there is a problem buzzing around that will grow I really feel like I'm in a car with an outdate tourist map. Tourist map is one of those "Not to Scale" cartoon like drawings showing where all sites are that "is used for reference only."

 We have alot of sites. We have alot of reference documents. I am not sure how much they actually match the road we are on.

Kobie

I keep going from 2 to 4 and back again, it's making me car sick.
The biggest worry is that it will strike when there's nothing I can do about it. Still, what's the odds it will hit an 8 day window?
at this point
it isn't so much ppf for me anymore, as the fact that the Pakistan situation again confirms for me how difficult it is for us to know when anything is happening.  I have a strong suspicion that were it not for the brother returning from Pakistan seeking medical advice, that country would not have reported the cases at all.

Which begs the question as to how much we are missing, and what is the chance of anyone, us, CDC, WHO, getting the information soon enough to either do something about it or warn us ahead of time.  



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

and still, there's lots of value in the news, methinks!
we see what we see ...

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.
[ Parent ]
You've mentioned that before SusanC
And I absolutely agree about us not even knowing had the brother not come down sick back in the U.S.  Just look at the time line.  It's really frightening to realize that what we are seeing everyday here in the different news threads is really the tip of the iceberg.  My PPF hasn't moved, but then I'm not sure PPF really has meaning for me anymore.  

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
numbers
I'm not so good with US-slang, can someone please translate it into
probability numbers ?

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies
PPF isn't directly linked to probability.
It's a personal measurement of concern. eg Mine is affected by Christmas in a way that has nothing to do with the evolution of H5N1. The ebola outbreak will have raised pressures a bit but has no impact on H5N1.

Quantity and significance of bf news is part of it, but not the whole picture.

[ Parent ]
of course, it is
you already measure it in numbers 0..10

it measures the expectation value of how much people
are affected by panflu. What else ?

dependance should be strictly monotone, though
not linear. What's the conversion formula ?

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
...
that will vary by individual based upon the threats they perceive, and how they perceive them..  mine may incorporate the economy, energy, climate, food, JIT dependencies, and yes, H5N1..  someone else's may just be H5N1. too, it varies by vulnerability to the threat - some folks may live in the city, and be very vulnerable to societal issues, whereas others in rural areas may not face those exact issues - their issues may be different, and consequently, their fear driven by other factors..  

now...  that is strictly my perception of the issues involved in establishing one overall PPF formula roughly applicable to all..  your perception may be different.  and therein lies the quandry of mapping thought to formula. the grammar may be the same, but the conditions that predicate action vary from one individual to the next.

[ Parent ]
I agree with c3jmp. Good
explanation. That's the way it is. My PPF is based on the general "goings on" with H5N1, and the Pakistan ordeal spiked it somewhat, not only because it was another country never having human bf, but also because of the delay in news, the number of people, and one was here in New York. That was the icing on the cake for me. If I lived in Cal. it would have rattled me so much. Where I had been holding at a high 4, for quiet a while now, it's now a 5. Like Kathhy, I'm  not freaking. I just keep watching.

And the Pakistan event also shows us, we don't know where this will start.


United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

[ Parent ]
...
put another way...  it's not a formula, but a matrix of formulas - some of the cells within the matrix have no impact on the end result for a given row/culumn, because they are not considered relevant to a given person's PPF - for some, those cells may have a value of 1, but others folks may have a fractional value there.  

1+1=10 is correct in base 2, but incorrect in bases 8, 10, and 16...  there's more to it than simply defining the formula...  it all depends on how one defines the underlying conditions.

there are alot of folks in the world, and most of them are not engaged on the pandemic threat...  be wary of analysis paralysis.

[ Parent ]
I'm glad you put it in layman's terms first. ;-) n/t


United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com
[ Parent ]
...
:-)  we're all laymen at something - individually, at most things..  and that's what makes groups stronger.  the biggest barrier we have is communication - even, perhaps especially, written communication.  i'm not a mathematician - math folks will pick that up immediately.  just trying to bridge a gap..  :-)
[ Parent ]
average
yes, it may be individually different. Let's take the average.

Individual damage-functions D(m,p) measure the "individual"
dependance of expected damage D(m,p) of member m on PPF p.
Now the SUM{over members m}[D(m,P(m))] should give a pretty good estimate of the
collective expected damage.
P(m) is the PPF of member m.

What monotone function f:[0,10]-->[0,$1e13] gives a good approximation of
f(p') ~ SUM[D(m,P(m))]  ,
where p' is the average PPF ?

That's what we should try to answer, since we don't know all the D(m,-)

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
improve your PPFs !

you do want to make it specific, so we can measure it.
Or would you prefer to keep it unclear deliberately ?

That prevents you from making obvious mistakes,
obvious inconsistencies. But it gives us fewer
information. Inconsistencies are not so bad, others
will have them too. Only when you see them you can correct
your PPF accordingly and make it more realistic.

I think, it's worth to spend some thought on the real
reasonable value of your PPFs and not just rely on your
gut-feelings.

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
Since your PPF is physically connected to your gut feeling
and ultimately TSHTF we can't separate them, but that's getting too graphic ;-)

Why don't you tell us your PPF or probability?

[ Parent ]
my PPF
my panflu-probability estimate is currently 7% per year

my "PPF" here:
http://planforpandemic.com/vie...

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

I'd suggest we make 5 the zero level, what it was in 1995.

When flu is eliminated it goes to zero.

10 is, when panflu broke out, struck all continents
and millions are dying.

1918,Oct : 9.5
1957,May : 8.5
2006,June : 8.0
2006,Jan : 8.3
2007,Jan : 7.7
2007,June: 7.2
2007,Dec : 7.4

(after only ~10 minutes of thought)

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
Is the probability for panflu (unspecified virus) or an H5N1 pandemic the same? n/t

[ Parent ]
non-H5N1
for historical reason the probability of a pandemic caused by a
Virus other than H5N1 is generally given as 3% per year.
Well, no pandemic for such a long time nd 2 viruses are circulating
already (H1N1,H3N2) , so let's say 2% per year.
That leaves 5% per year for H5N1 going pandemic (IMO)

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies
[ Parent ]
"unclear deliberately" - this is where i feel annoyed, gs LOL
actually, i don't think i would ban you even if i could (you brought up the idea), but at times it's comments like this that make me wish i had an "ignore" button

i'm not sure you realise how disruptive, uselessly disruptive, that kind of comment is - just my feelings here

ok, i'll do what i can to ignore it

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

[ Parent ]
?????????????????????????????????
 
is it, because deep inside you don't want to be objective ?
is it because these forums (and Osterholmists) "live" from transmitting a
somehow high PPF without being too clear so they can't be tracked later
and the thing can't be mathematilized ?

> 0 -- I'm a corpsicle, no pulse at all
> 1 -- Novocaine, I can't feel a thing
> 2 -- BBRFWK, I'll wish I was a corpsicle tomorrow
> 3 -- What a great day today is. Woo Hoo!
> 4 -- Aaaah, a bee in the car!
> 5 -- Aaaah, a black widow on the steering wheel
> 6 -- Brakelights!!!
> 7 -- No brakes!!!!!
> 8 -- No insurance!!!!!!!!
> 9 -- Swerving
> 10 -- Running the redlight through traffic, Yikes!

???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????

Corpsicle is a term that has been used in science fiction to refer to a corpse that has been cryonically cryopreserved
BBRFWK ?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/W...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/B...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S...

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
this is all too complicated for me
How about we just go with that queasy feeling in our stomachs that curse using weird symbols, like this @#$%!!!  The louder the curse, the higher the PPF.  Mine screams with fright sometimes, and startles me.  The mathematical formulas tend to drop my PPF because my brain engages itself and tries to figure it out.  Finding that it can't make heads or tails out of the math, it gets bored and goes to sleep.
[ Parent ]
Not monotone
Suppose I am someone who can, at any time t, articulate both a subjective probability estimate of the likelihood of a pandemic starting in the next month (call it SPE(t)), and a PPF(t). (I'm not, but just suppose.) The SPE can not necessarily be expressed as a monotone function of the PPF. E.g., suppose that at time t0 a loved one is in Indonesia, and that at time t1 he has returned. My PPF at time t0 would be dramatically increased by that fact, although my SPE would be unaffected. So it could easily happen that PPF(t0) > PPF(t1) even though SPE(t0) < SPE(t1).
[ Parent ]
monotone
yes, the individual dependancy could be non-monotone but still
monotone in most cases and subintervals.
The higher the PPF, the higher the SPE  (in most cases)

the average PPF  f() however should be even more monotone

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
PPF...another snowball
PPF can be increased by knowing others PPFs. The known PPF of the leader(s) will influence the PPF of the others.

My PPF depends upon where I am in an AR and is not necessarily always based in reality as everyone else is experiencing it. Post AR my PPF drops way down since I have adjusted to the reality that I am faced with. I am not sure if I am making complete sense here but knowing someone else's PPF is not really beneficial to me and actually can be a detriment. JMO

Pray for all people and rulers
1Timothy 2:1-4

(Extending the culture of life.)

http://preparedcitizens.wordpr...

ignore
you always have the option to just ignore
other people's PPF.

what's AR ?

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
re: ignore
I pick and choose the threads that I read, I have no problem with that.

To be clear, I look at PPF more as an indication of where someone is in their next adjustment reaction (AR) because that is how I relate to what my PPF's are to me. When I read someone else's PPF it does not indicate, to me, where we are on the pandemic approach scale, if there even is one.

I don't intend to infer a negative judgment of someone else experiencing an AR because I see them as normal and very healthy. When we stop experiencing the roller coaster and seem stuck in terror, that is when we should be concerned.)

But PPFs just have a different meaning to me....I don't see this a reliable indicator of where we are at? Again JMVH, and quite possibly very wrong opinion.

Pray for all people and rulers
1Timothy 2:1-4

(Extending the culture of life.)

http://preparedcitizens.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
I use everyone's PPF
to gauge the situation. It also helps me stay grounded. It's good to ask what everyone's PPF is every now and them. So far, it seems to me, everyone is right on target with their PPF's and given the current situation(s). I don't believe anyone uses others PPF to compare to themselves.

This really isn't a complicated issue. Either you feel the situation has gotten worse, and we're one step closer to a pandemic, or you don't. It's that simple.  

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

expert PPFs
I'd prefer panflu probability estimates, but PPFs
are better than nothing.

Has anyone succeeded to get a PPF from an expert ?
Osterholm,Webster,Fauci,Nabarro,Osterhaus, ... ?

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
If Osterholm said
his PPF is 10, would it change all of our PPF's?  

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com
[ Parent ]
M. Osterholms PPF?
It might but why...is he privy to information that we aren't and are we then implying that there is a cover up of information. I may not know all the scientific facts that M. Osterholm does but I know enough to determine where we are given the same information related to panflu and clusters...

Some of us are able to look more clinically at facts and intellectualize through the issue but these folks are not immune to emotions and reactions.

There are simply too many uncontrollable factors. I think that this is what we are bristling at....the unknowable.

Pray for all people and rulers
1Timothy 2:1-4

(Extending the culture of life.)

http://preparedcitizens.wordpr...

[ Parent ]
10
10 is maximum. Can it really be 10, when there is no pandemic yet ?

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies
[ Parent ]
10 would be my bunker number
9 would be reports of 8 cases, then 14, then 23, then 46...

Somewhere in there I would switch to 10.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

[ Parent ]
fractions
you can have 9.1,9.2,9.223,...

we could also use the WHO-levels.
What do you think, where should WHO be ?
(fractions allowed)

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
My concern still lies with
the preference to protect tourism income than to keep the public informed.

In Australia and New Zealand, Bali is a popular holiday place but there has been NOTHING about the fact that H5N1 cases have/are occurring there!  

This is the silent threat for me ..

When I look at the countries where human cases are occurring, I consider the tourist/business traveller potential for unknown spread to the rest of the world - when it is occurring in more of these places, my PPF will rise like the launching of a rocket!

At the moment though I am still sitting at about 3

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

Gut feelings

Maybe the real problem is that you are attempting to quantify what cannot be quantified?

A gut feeling is exactly that.

You will never be able to turn the PPF into any sort of reliable mathematical measuring stick because you will never be able to figure out what everyone's respective PPF's are really based on.  The PPF is inevitably some combination of emotion, logic and intuition - and perhaps a healthy dose of learning from the past.

Add to that the likelihood that one's PPF will go up and down depending upon prepping progress, natural disasters, flu news, proximity of loved ones, or whatever.

It is not reliably quantifiable.  In the end, even if you believe you are successful at reaching some sort of conclusion, you will likely be missing something and your numbers will be meaningless. 

You are wasting your time... and ours.


PPF's
If the reveres, Dem, Melanie or Susan go to 10, then I'll go to 10.

Till then, I am enjoying my life and the holidays! I decided about 18 months ago to start planning now for level 6 and have made steady progress. I have 2 great grandsons and my son is coming in tomorrow from San Diego!

That way, whatever-I'm mostly ready!....

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.

Why use the World Health Organization System ?
It is a world wide numbering system with very specific requirements to change its levels.

People who live in the USA understand the Hurricane and Tornado number systems.  So why change.

It has a system of parameters that the UN agreed upon.

It is a system the the scientific community agreed to.

It is a system that the Medical community agreed to.

It is a simple system to use and understand.

So why change it?  

  No warning - no way to fight - no way to win!  
We need help in our local communities to survive. Remember that quote:    "...No man is an island..."

What is your PPF? 12-17-07 to 01-23-08 | 40 comments
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