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Australia and New Zealand for November

by: AnnieB

Thu Nov 23, 2006 at 17:07:57 PM EST


Welcome aboard!

This Diary is for sharing news and ideas pertinent to these countries.
AnnieB :: Australia and New Zealand for November
This is the text from the old site:


14 November 2006

RobT – at 19:46

I thought this was noteworthy enough to start the November thread.

I just spoke to a senior medico in the Australian Federal Dept of Health regarding my concerns on several issues, and I thought his responses were important enough to share.

  1. CFR. I expressed the concern that the plans as published do not reflect the current CFR and are in fact based upon 1968 CFR values which are two orders of magnitude below current H5N1 CFR ie 0.6% for 1968 and over 60% for current H5N1. He agreed completely. He agreed there is no immutable rule that says the virulence has to drop, and so it may not. But other Influenza A virus have shown attenuation during the period of epidemic/pandemic so there is an assumption that H5N1 may do the same. He made the point that from an epidemiological point of view, regardless of the severity of the pandemic, the things we need to do to moderate the impact are very much the same. We discussed the evolution forces to cause the virus to attenuate, and I made the point that chickens are not feeling more secure and expecting the virulence to drop, they are dying at a 100% rate as they have from the beginning. The parallel to densely populated cities and countries was then discussed, and the implications are obvious. Big severe impact.

  2. Risk communication. I expressed my concern that given the probable severe impact, ie high CFR, why the Australian authorities were not communicating the real risks to the public. It was a long conversation, but the short version is that they are well aware of the issue, that they believe the timing is important, and that they believe there will be enough time from when the pandemic breaks out to inform the public of what needs to be done re quarantine issues, stockpiling non-perishable foods and water etc. My viewpoint was the earlier the better to allow for the adjustment reaction and enough time for families to prepare. He said there was alot of negative feedback from New Zealand where people stocked up on perishable food and it went off or out of date, and they complained!

We discussed several other related items but in essence, the behaviour of the authorities is due to the belief they will have enough warning time to get everyone prepared.

For the record, I disagree with this policy. I think we may NOT have very much warning depending on the circumstances of where the pandemic breaks out, what surveillance is there, and the involvement/timing of international air travel re the index cases.

At least now I have an appreciation of the thinking going on re the health authorities.

Comments?


(Editors note: I have created this as a separate comment so people can respond direct to RobT)

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Australia and New Zealand for November | 12 comments
Rest of Previous Thread (Old Site)

(Editor's note - some 'editing' has taken place during the transfer)


15 November 2006

AnnieB – at 00:06

Totally agree that the issue is giving plenty of warning and there may not be time.

As to NZ and perishable preps going off - there has never been anything in the NZ promotions that it was imminent, to stock up now and it will happen now - so to speak. His ‘evidence’ of complaints within NZ must be anecdotal because it certainly has not been reported by official sites or the media here ..

Besides which, as with any group that prepare for any emergency, we know to rotate our supplies - in fact, whenever daylight savings goes on and off in NZ, there is a reminder to change your emergency supplies of stored water. (Plus we are reminded to change the batteries in our smoke detectors - good system really.)


RobT – at 20:18

The Aussies were briefed by the Kiwis some time ago, so although it probably wasn’t reported, he was making the point that they thought informing the sheeple too early was a problem, as well as obviously too late was a bigger problem.

As I said, I disagreed with him. There is not a valid reason for not informing the public of the facts as early as possible. Just feable reasons like some Kiwis had food go off. So what? They should have stocked non-perishable items anyway.

You should see what they have released as a little A4 folded pamphlet entitled "BIRDFLU - Important Information for all Australians."


It’s all about not catching H5N1 from chickens. It refers people to the Gov’t website for preparation info. On the website it says to keep 3 days of water stockpiled. Oh, that’s Ok then. No problem, other than the wave may last 12 weeks that is.


16 November 2006

future uncertain – at 02:35

I have been following the developments of bird flu on this board and CE for just on 12 months. From my very, very limited understanding of flu genetics the situation does look potentially dire. A panflu with CFR of 5% let alone 50% is nearly too much to contemplate.

I have been prepping at various stages over the last 10 months and have maybe 3–4 months of food and drinking water preps, perhaps not yet that well nutritionally balanced!

I would like to ask people prepping in Australia, specifically brisbane, where one can purchase locally or via the internet, from an Australian based distributor, N95 and N100( or our equivilant standard PS2 I think) face masks. Or is it necessary and more cost effective to purchase from the USA.

Also I am looking at purchasing a Berkey water fliter with black carbon filter but am having trouble locating a retailer in Australia. Can anyone advise whether this product is sold in Australia and of course if so the retailers details.

Any help would be much appreciated.


AnnieB – at 02:50

Hi future uncertain and welcome.

I went back through the old OZ/NZ threads and found this discussion:


  • Prepper Australis ¨C at 00:24 Hi Piesy. Although I¡¯m not on the east coast (in SA), I too had difficulty finding masks and the only place I could find masks was at a surgical and medical supplier, where I purchased 60 N95 masks.
  • Woodstock ¨C at 00:26 i get N95¡äs from the local Amcal in Leichhardt NSW
  • Piesy001 ¨C at 00:27 Thought I would re-check my local Amcal - They are there 3 boxes (of 36 masks) of standard N95 masks. BUT they are individually marked as ¡®Avian Flu Masks - n95¡ä. And priced at $4.95 each. Is this the prices others are getting them for? - my local chemist has a habit of high mark ups.
  • Woodstock ¨C at 00:46 i get them for $4.50each (ouch!) at amcal and a place in glebe for $4.00. i think its price gouging but what can u do? I just pick up a couple more every week
  • AussieOne - at 00:52 Try these guys online, I have found them to be very reliable and much cheaper than what has been quoted above. http://www.bulkaraso...

I hope that helps anyway


RobT – at 07:39

Future Uncertain;

I’d suggest you consider half face respirators instead of disposables. But it depends on use. The disposables are Ok for VERY short periods, maybe half an hour or so, and not extended use. Pop down to the corner store and join in the local food riot- that sort of use. Whereas you can use half face respirators for extended periods and they are MUCH more comfortable and fit better. And they are much cheaper by just replacing the filters.

I use MSA Comfofit with P2 (N95) or P3(N100) filters. Many distributors around Australia or call (02) 9688 0333.

Most importantly they are, I believe, the only respirator that comes in 3 sizes including a small size that fits kids pretty well. My kids are 9 and 6 and have a good seal, but younger kids with smaller faces are a big worry with most masks.

Learn how to properly doff and don the respirator so you don’t die from not using it properly and causing cross infection.

That is a consideration with water filters too. Don’t forget you will be filtering deadly organisms that can easily cross contaminate from the virus loaded filter. I have looked into this issue in some detail, and prefer using UVC germicidal lamp for water sterilisation. There are many reasons why. It’s 100% effective, unlike filters. It treats much higher volumes of water. It is much cheaper and quicker. The only downside is that UVC light is harmful to the eyes and you need eyewear that blocks UVC to prevent damaging your retina. But that is not a big deal to wear something while using the crystal U-tube lamp.

Some things to think about, hope that helps.


future uncertain – at 08:07

Thanks AnnieB and RobT for your responses.


I like the idea of the half-face repirator, being able to use for extended periods will provide greater protection over I wider range of activities. I will look into your leads, perhaps buy a combination of the disposables and the changeable filter mask, with a emphasis on the latter for my main protection.

RobT your UVC germicidal lamp sounds like a clinical approach to decontaminating water. If the grid goes down for extended periods one will need another power source to operate. I guess it is really unknown as to how devastating the next pandemic could be. Whether it will be catastrophic with a complete or partial breakdown of our infrastructure.


RobT – at 16:49

future uncertain;

No the UVC is very practical for individuals. You can get both a florescent tube type for decontaminating room/sick room that works with ordinary florescent light fittings, as well as the U shaped bulbs that are crytal for immersing in a water container.

If the grid goes down (a distinct possibility), a small invertor running off a 12 volt storage battery works fine.


18 November 2006

AnnieB – at 23:19

Well my dear Ozzie colleagues - all your efforts have just taken a massive backward step with headlines and news reports like this ...

World may have averted bird flu pandemic: expert (link http://tinyurl.com/y...)

SYDNEY (AFP) - The world may have already averted a bird flu pandemic by widespread chicken culls and the isolation of infected humans, Australia’s chief medical officer has said.

But if a new flu virus did begin spreading rapidly among humans all the world’s preparations might be shown to be insufficient, John Horvath wrote in the Medical Journal of Australia.

"It may be that the world has already averted an influenza pandemic by actions it has taken in response to H5N1, such as extensive culling of poultry and isolation of infected humans," he said.

"Yet all preparations may seem insufficient if the world comes face to face with a rapidly spreading novel virus like the one that emerged in 1918."

(snip)  Horvath noted that the changes in the world since previous pandemics, such as faster and cheaper international travel and more densely populated countries, would make it easier for disease to spread.

Leading immunologist Peter Doherty said in the same government-sponsored report that while some kind of pandemic outbreak was certain in the future researchers were divided over whether it would be caused by the H5N1 virus.

"There’s the quandary: the potential threat has horrific proportions but it is not clear whether anything will actually happen," he wrote.

The top UN coordinator on avian influenza, David Nabarro, said earlier this month the H5N1 virus was likely to remain a significant global threat for the next decade.

"The risk of a mutation to cause pandemic is still very much there," he said. "As long as the virus is present in birds, there will also be a threat of sporadic human infection, and a possibility of a mutation which would cause at the end of the day a pandemic."

It should be noted that the above story is from Yahoo. The same story at ninemsn does not quote Nabarro. (link http://tinyurl.com/y...) - that link is the ninemsn story.


Here is another story from ninemsn as well - sounds like a lot of finger-pointing and no ownership ...


States’ ‘inaction’ stalls pandemic plans

Sunday Nov 19 12:44 AEDT (link http://tinyurl.com/y...)

A federal plan requiring hospitals to map their response to a bird flu pandemic can’t happen until the states reveal their game plan, doctors warn. A new report sets out Australia’s latest preparations for a possible outbreak of severe influenza, including vaccine development, infection control and the crucial role of doctors to help contain the spread.

In the 80-page federal government-sponsored document published by the Medical Journal of Australia, Chief Medical Officer John Horvath says the country is better prepared than ever to respond effectively to a pandemic, whether it is a human form of the deadly bird flu virus H5N1 or a new influenza strain.

In the event of either, hospitals and clinics will be on the front line so they must each have a strategy in place, Prof Horvath says.

"Every practice needs a plan that defines the role of staff, incorporates infection control and staff protection measures and considers business continuity," he writes. "Most importantly, a practice needs to know how to implement that plan."


(snip) But the Australian Medical Association (AMA) said doctors could not properly plan for an influenza pandemic until state governments alert them of their plans.

"General practitioners are keen to properly prepare for a flu pandemic but they’re currently trying to do so in a vacuum of information on how jurisdictions propose to mobilise, integrate, finance and protect primary care," AMA president Mukesh Haikerwal said.

There appeared to be no consistency across states and territories on the role of fever clinics or how patients would be directed to the most appropriate care, Dr Haikerwal said. "Governments must resolve these issues and, as a matter of urgency, deliver to GPs a clear and consistent pandemic primary care plan, so doctors can get on with completing their own plans," he said.

The vaccine protects against one strain of the deadly H5N1 virus, which has so far killed more than 200 people in Asia and is seen as the biggest current threat. In the report, Prof Horvath said it was possible the world had already averted an H5N1 pandemic by extensive culling of poultry and isolation of infected humans.


19 November 2006

RobT – at 20:49

Hey AnnieB; I told you we had some challenges over on this side of the pond, didn’t I?

I havn’t read the report yet, but after awhile it seems that we are just waiting for the (collective) ostrich (TPTB) to extract its head from the sand, look around and say “Holy smokes! We better prepare for this pandemic thingy.”

BTW, the title of the Horvath article is a bit misleading. I don’t think he is saying we have averted the pandemic and the coast is clear. I think he is saying that culling and the human case management may have already averted the outbreak, but it still is a danger. Dunno. He may have been reported out of context.

But there is no question that Mr Horvath has not been a leading light in getting Australians prepared, and he will have a tarnished legacy if millions of Australians die because of lack of political will.


20 November 2006

RobT – at 01:56

To ALL Aussie Fluwikians:

I have been invited to a meeting re Pandemic planning where in attendance will be senior Health Department medicos and local government officials.

What would you like to know? I will be focusing on the lack of public awareness/education and how that would have disasterous consequences if communities are not prepared well beforehand…and what we can do about it.

That topic is my little crusade, but what can I take to them from you people? What are your concerns and ideas? The meeting will be called in the next week or so, so now is the time to speak up.

This Aussie & NZ thread has been quite devoid of participation lately, (not you Annie B) so is everyone OK with everything? Nothing to discuss or help each other?


InKy – at 22:00

RobT - Australia is a long way from Kentucky, but I just want you to know I’m impressed with what you are accomplishing, and I’m cheering you on :-). I look forward to reading about the meeting.


21 November 2006

RobT – at 01:51

InKy;  Thanks for that. You’ll be interested to hear that the local Council took our pandemic flyer down from the public bulletin board! Never got a reason, but the flyers have been given out at the local Pharmacies, so hopefully there will be some good come of it. And the format needs to change. It should be printed so it folds in three parts so it can be in a counter top stand. When I get a chance I’ll do one and send it to you.

This is sort of my “warm up” meeting before I get to see the heavy hitters of the Federal powerbrokers who can really bring about change. So I thought some input from the Aussie Fluwikians would be appropriate. I certainly would post it generally when the Canberra meeting happens.

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

The latest Update from previous thread
anonymous – at 20:12
RobT – at 01:51

Which council was this?

DennisC – at 21:08
I posted this on the not bird flu thread but I thought I would cross post it here.

200 dead birds found in Havelock North area

The Hawke’s Bay Regional Council says a mass death of birds in the Havelock North area is not likely to be linked to bird flu. Around 200 birds have been reported dead in the area this week.

The birds are mostly small species like sparrows and starlings, but there have also been ducks, magpies and a bellbird reported. The council’s group manager of asset management, Mike Adye, says a range of tests are being carried out to try to find the cause of the deaths; but it may be some time before the cause - or its location - can be found.

Mr Adye says there have been reports of pets dying after eating dead birds, and he advises people to dispose of any dead birds in the rubbish or to bury them deeply.

http://tinyurl.com/y...

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

NZ - bird flu not ruled out in bird / pet deaths
200 dead birds found in Havelock North area

9:13am on 25 Nov 2006  /  http://tinyurl.com/y...

Hawke's Bay Regional Council says a mass death of birds in the Havelock North area is not likely to be linked to bird flu.

However, an avian influenza specialist says bird flu should not be ruled out as a cause. About 200 birds have been reported dead in the area this week.

The council says the birds range from sparrows to ducks, and at least four cats and a dog have also died.

Professor of Animal Health at Massey University, Roger Morris, says the fact that cats and ducks are among the deaths raises the level of concern.

The council's group manager of asset management, Mike Adye, says a range of tests are being carried out to find the cause of the deaths, but it may be some time before the cause - or where it happened - can be found.

Mr Adye says there have been reports of pets dying after eating dead birds, and he advises people to dispose of any dead birds in the rubbish or to bury them deeply.

An update to this story was posted
to the "Not Bird Flu News but Close" Diary here http://www.newfluwik...

I commented over there that I would do a bit of local 'investigating' and see if I can find anything out.

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

[ Parent ]
I just took a trip to the supermarket and
found there are several choices in the way of anti-bacterial wipes in the cleaning products section.  (Talking NZ supermarkets here.)

Previously, we really just had a couple of brands, mainly in the baby products line, but now there are almost industrial size jobs!  So, if you thought there wasn't much to choose from, I suggest you take another look.  Hope this helps someone out there ;-)

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

A new Civil Defence Brochure in the LetterBox
I arrived home today to another brochure drop about preparedness for an emergency event.

This one does not deal with pandemic events - just the Natural Disaster type of event, but I thought some of the items included in it would be 'beneficial' for others to hear/see.

The front page has some graphic pictures of damage and the statement  "Civil Defence starts at Home"

The entire inside of the (three-fold) brochure is taken up with a big Timeline:

  • Disaster strikes
  • Day 1: You are on your own ...
    • - help your family and neighbours.

  • Day 2: You are still on your own ...
    • - Civil Defence starts to set up,
    • - help your family and neighbours

  • Day 3: You still need to be self-sufficient ...
    • - tell the local CDC what conditions are like in your neighbourhood

  • Days 4-6: National resources start to be mobilised ...


The other two 'folds' give more detailed information, including calling for volunteers to assist in the local community.

I cannot find an online link for the brochure so I might scan it and see if we can get it linked in somehow ...

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

Civil Defence Centres CANNOT provide food and water ..
When I read some more in the "other two folds" on this Brochure, it specifically states that Civil Defence Centres CANNOT provide food and water to residents in an emergency.

The final paragraph reads:
WEMO (Wellington Emergency Management Office) will provide resources to meet the needs as and when it can.  In a major disaster this could take days or even weeks

How much more can they say about get yourself ready - you are on your own?  Good stuff (IMHO)

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

[ Parent ]
Here is a link to the Brochure
This is the contents of the Brochure, with the 'inside pages' on page one and the 'outside' folds on page two.

Link http://www.newfluwik...

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

[ Parent ]
Some more intersting reading on 1918
There is another Diary here about the 1920 Monographs on the 1918 pandemic.  It originates from the University of Melbourne.

I have just read the segment on Australasia and thought it was worth posting here (this link takes you to the PDF)

http://influenza.sph...

I hope you find it of merit too

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

Back from a break....
Hi AnnieB;

Been away and I find the new wiki to be a bit of a struggle to follow the topics, so havn't been keeping up on things at this new site. Glad to see the OZ-Kiwi thread up.

I'll be in NZ Feb 10 to 18th landing and departing from Christchurch. Hope we can catch up somehow, even on the phone?

Cheers,

RobT

Hi RobT and happy new year
Love to catch up.  If you email Mama at 'fs16@mts.net' and ask her to send the email on to me, I know it will all be treated in confidence and I can give you my contact details etc.

Cheers

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon

[ Parent ]
Background Briefing on Bird Flu
Background Briefing on Radio National had an interesting discussion on Bird Flu preparedness(or the lack of it) in this country this morning.
Reading between the lines of the transcript it appears that the management of bird flu here has been taken over by the 'security juggernaut' - who we can expect to be heavy handed and to contribute very little to the management of an epidemic.

I may be paranoid but the idea that an epidemic will start before the next general elections and enable governments to invoke emergency powers indefinitely chills me to the bone. One has to ask exactly who someone like Cheney is beholden to with his shares in Relenza, the devil???

Perhaps they hope that it will kill us all so that there are only compliant ones left?

Australia and New Zealand for November | 12 comments
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