Link to New Cluster in Egypt I
My apologies for the formatting (or lack thereof:-). I'll see to it ASAP- I just ran short of time. 22 November 2006
AnnieB – at 00:00
Last few postings from previous thread
anonymous – at 10:45 That Egyption govt site now says all tests negative, but they don’t enumerate.
http://birdflu.sis.g...
DennisC – at 10:46
Egypt
Some household poultry in the northern Egyptian city of Alexandria have been tested positive for the H5N1 virus, a government statement said Monday. The Egyptian Ministry of Health sent teams to cull the infected domestic fowls along with veterinary services and Alexandria police, Egypt’s official news agency MENA quoted the Health ministry statement as saying. The medical tests of people who have been in direct contact with the infected poultry are ongoing in the Egyptian Ministry of Health, the statement added. It also said that there were two suspected human bird flu cases from Cairo and Giza, west of Cairo, admitted to hospitals but tested negative.
http://tinyurl.com/y...
RBD – at 11:39
anonymous, A cache of the link you provided indicates the statement on no current human cases was made on or before November 12.
The four suspect cases listed in the first post on this thread were admitted 3–4 days AFTER that statement.
Ruth – at 15:08
So we are still waiting on those test results.. It shouldn’t take that long. The wiki world is waiting.
Snowhound1 – at 15:35
Well, also keep in mind that throughout the months of trying to track cases in various parts of the world, there have been many “suspected” cases that “we” have been waiting to hear the results of, and nothing is ever said about them again. They simply “disappear”. It will be disappointing, but this could very well be what happens in these four suspected cases in Egypt. We can only hope that the reason nothing is reported is that the tests are negative.
RBD – at 19:35
Snowhound1, Since two of the four were unconscious, and they form a tight cluster, it is harder for them to just go away.
Theresa42 – at 22:14
anonymous – at 10:45 — That Egyption govt site now says all tests negative, but they don’t enumerate.
http://birdflu.sis.g...
This report was posted on the Egyptian government’s website on Nov 2 — pre-dating the 4 suspected cases from Sohag, as RBD suggests. If you go to their Press Release main page, you’ll see the Nov 2nd date (it’s the one at the top): http://birdflu.sis.g...
Theresa42 – at 22:21
Snowhound1 – at 15:35 — Well, also keep in mind that throughout the months of trying to track cases in various parts of the world, there have been many “suspected” cases that “we” have been waiting to hear the results of, and nothing is ever said about them again. They simply “disappear”. It will be disappointing, but this could very well be what happens in these four suspected cases in Egypt. We can only hope that the reason nothing is reported is that the tests are negative.
Well put, Snowhound! To put things in perspective — there were at least 150–200 suspected cases back in March at the height of the outbreak in Egypt — and we pretty much didn’t hear anything about most of them. I suppose we just must presume they all tested neg. ??
I would guess, too, that there’s been at least a hundred or more suspected cases since then — we just rarely hear about them. The Egyptian gov’t pretty much only mentions positives (occasionally they mention poultry workers who tested neg — but they never say if these people had symptoms or were just tested ‘cause they were working with/culling H5N1 pos chickens) — we rely on the papers (mostly “Al Wafd”) for any hints about others.
Walrus – at 22:56
I don’t believ the Egyptian Government maintains a free press. After all, they have a Tourist industry to protect.
AnnieB – at 00:05
Previous thread is here
Theresa42 – at 10:26
Sounds like the 4 cases in Sohag have tested neg…
Google-translated from Arabic:
New hotbeds of avian influenza in Menoufia, Port Said
Nov 22, 2006
Sana, Mustafa wrote: Announced yesterday that the National Committee to confront disease avian flu headed by Dr. Hatim al-Jabali, minister of health and population infected with the emergence of new hotbeds of avian influenza in the Governorates of Menoufia, Alexandria indicate the emergence of the virus in birds in the household Alordian Alexandria between pen Obat deceased was a lady inside her house. Dr Rahman Shahin, spokesman of the Ministry of Health and added that the discovery of a new positive Menoufiya Governorate of chickens infected ÈÇäÝáæäÒÇ Obat domestic birds in the new facility status Albajor and teams from the Ministry of Health and veterinary services and the police to execute all birds in infected hot WittTahir places Educational birds and checking Almkhalten were sent samples of dead birds around the central labs to the Health Ministry spokesman also announced that the 7 »« suspected human cases in the presence of avian flu was negative outcome, the cases have been booked in hospitals Sohag, Giza and Port Said.
http://www.alwafd.or...
cottontop – at 10:38
If these suspected cases are testing negative, I wonder what they are testing positive for? What other diseases are still causing a nightmare there?
Okieman – at 10:39
Theresa42 – at 10:26
“negative outcome” sounds like they died to me, not a negative test. Machine translations are tough to interpret.
gharris – at 10:57
Could the testing procedures could be giving false negatives!
Mary in Hawaii – at 11:17
gharris at 10:57 This is from the WHO working group report of Sept 22 regarding research into H5N1. I don’t have the link handy, but you can find it on the WHO website. Title
“Influenza Research at the Human and Animal Interface”
I. Detection and diagnosis of human H5N1 infections Serological methods. A presentation from the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) described the state-of-the-art in diagnostic testing, including laboratory confirmation of H5N1 infections based on serological tests.
Such testing becomes important when poor sampling technique, poor specimen quality, or other problems rule out isolation of the virus or preclude the use of PCR-based tests. For example, two cases from the 1997 outbreak in Hong Kong were confirmed on the basis of serological results alone. Serological tests are also used in studies aimed at screening for mild or asymptomatic illness in population groups with high potential exposures to the virus, including family members and contacts of patients, poultry workers and cullers, and workers in live animal markets.
Serodiagnosis depends on the use of paired sera collected at specified dates during the course of a patient’s illness, as dictated by the kinetics of the antibody response. Antibody can usually be detected 10 days post-infection; detection of antibody 9 days post-infection is rare. When the collection of paired sera is not possible, diagnosis can be made using results from a single serum sample evaluated together with clinical and epidemiological data.
It sounded to me from this research paper that false negatives were a real problem in a lot of cases.
Little Kahuna – at 11:39
Yes, false negatives are a really big problem especially if they are masked by a patient who is currently taking Tamiflu.
Theresa42 – at 14:02
Okieman – at 10:39 — “negative outcome” sounds like they died to me, not a negative test. Machine translations are tough to interpret.
Yes, indeed — dying would be a negative outcome! In my experience, though, when the Arabic machine-translator says “negative outcome”, that means neg test results.
Gonna verify the whole article with another (better) machine-translator though — just in case.
Theresa42 – at 14:20
Same article as in post “Theresa42 – at 10:26″ — better machine-translation … I’m just assuming that the 4 suspects from Sohag (Suhaj) are included in this “7″ that have tested neg, although that’s not actually spelled out here ….
New foci to the bird flu in Monofiya and Port Said
She wrote - Sanaa Mostafa:
Yesterday the national committee for the confrontation of the bird flu disease with the presidency of doctor Hatem declared the mountain the Minister of Health and the citizens are the appearance of new foci injured by the bird flu in the governorates of Monofiya and Alexandria they become clear the appearance of virus in house birds in the rosy region in Alexandria between chicken and ducks one of the women raise them inside its [her] house.
He stated that doctor Abdul Rahman Shahin the spokesman to the Ministry of Health and he added that the discovery of a positive new site took place in Monoufia Governate to chicken and house ducks injured by the bird flu in the new facility in a district El Bajour and groups from the Ministry of Health, the veterinary services and the police have executed of all of the present birds in the injured foci and cleansing the places of Al Tew upbringing and he examined the contacts and sending samples took place from the associates by the dead birds to the central laboratories in the Ministry of Health as the spokesman declared that the “7″ the humanity conditions suspect of their injury by the bird flu disease their results came a negative and was the conditions have been reserved in the hospitals of Suhaj governorates, Giza and Port Said.
http://www.alwafd.or...
ANON-YYZ – at 14:48
Theresa42 – at 14:20
“foci” reads like “cluster”
Conclusion seems to be:
“suspected cluster of 7 in Suhaj tests negative”
RBD – at 14:59
Yes, it sounds like results were negative, but no indication is given on why the four were hospitalized the same day, or why 2 were unconscious.
The three unconscious patients in Turkey at the beginning of 2006 also tested negative initially, and were not positive until they died and samples were collected from their lungs.
Theresa42 – at 21:42
ANON-YYZ ¨C at 14:48 — Conclusion seems to be: ¡°suspected cluster of 7 in Suhaj tests negative¡±
No. The article says (from the second translation): “the ¡°7¡å the humanity conditions suspect of their injury by the bird flu disease their results came a negative and was the conditions have been reserved in the hospitals of Suhaj governorates, Giza and Port Said.”
So, there were 7 patients in 3 hospitals in Suhaj, Giza and Port Said. If we suppose that the article is talking about the 4 suspected cases in Suhaj, then there ought to be 3 between Giza and Port Said (unless there was a fifth person in Suhaj we haven’t heard of).
23 November 2006
RBD – at 09:35
Speaking of another patient at Suhaj:
Egypt reported a suspected new human case in the central city of Sohag, the Al-Ghomhuria newspaper reported today, without saying where it got the information. A 25-year-old woman was transferred to the hospital for treatment, the newspaper said.
Last Updated: November 23, 2006 08:14 EST
http://www.bloomberg...
anon_22 – at 10:03
anon_22 – at 12:00
And the Hajj is just round the corner.
Do people go to get healed of sickness? Or for someone else who is sick?
NS1 – at 17:27
The Hajj can be physically demanding and outbreaks of illness have occurred.
I’m not certain if it is considered a time of physical healing, perhaps more a time of of physical denial?
Theresa42 – at 22:22
RBD – at 09:35 — Speaking of another patient at Suhaj:
Egypt reported a suspected new human case in the central city of Sohag, the Al-Ghomhuria newspaper reported today, without saying where it got the information. A 25-year-old woman was transferred to the hospital for treatment, the newspaper said.
The story from Al-Ghomhuria…
Machine-translated from Arabic:
The bird flu is tribal and marine - Suspicion condition in Suhaj and a positive site in the lake
Nov 23, 2006
A new suspicion condition appeared by the bird flu disease in Suhaj .. Its name house lord Wafaa Abdul Salam was injured by it “25 years” from Salamon village Tema district and transferred Suhaj adenoids .. And in El-Behera Governorate the discovery of a positive site took place to house birds injured by the bird flu the confirmation of its positivity took place in the central laboratory in the Ministry of Health .. The site is in Al Fakharani’s village Delingat district and there are no symptoms on the contacts.
http://212.103.160.2... |
