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Situation in Hong Kong 2 - Fatal Cases in Children

by: SusanC

Wed Mar 12, 2008 at 22:44:35 PM EDT


( - promoted by DemFromCT)

Part 1 on the situation in Hong Kong in relation to outbreak and school closure, is here.
SusanC :: Situation in Hong Kong 2 - Fatal Cases in Children
Widespread concern about the current influenza outbreak in Hong Kong centers most significantly on the 3 fatal cases suspected to be flu related.

The first one is only now retrospectively reported by the hospial.  This was a 21-month old boy admitted to hospital on Feb 22 with fever and cough, and had convulsions when first seen in the emergency room.  He was transferred to ICU and died on Feb 24.  Respiratory tract samples tested negative to both flu A and B.  I am not sure why they are investigating this, I guess it is probably a case of prudence, to check recent deaths that may have been flu related.

The second case was the 3-year old girl died on March 1.  Her 6-year old sister became ill on Feb 26 with fever, cough, and runny nose.  3 days later (Feb 29th) the 3-year old became ill as well with the same symptoms including high fever.  They were both seen by a private physician.

On March 1, the 3-year old was taken to the Emergency room at Tuen Mun Hospital at around 5am with high fever and respiratory difficulties (as reported here and here).  Chest x-ray was taken and said to be normal, and the girl was sent home.  She was taken to the ER again at 4:30pm already comatose, with no heart rate and pulse detected.  She was declared dead after an hour of failed resuscitation.  Her sister was admitted to hospital with 'viral pneumonia' and tested positive for H3.  

There is some indication this girl may have suffered from Reye's syndrome a complication that may have been caused by taking medications containing aspirin.  

The third case is the most recent 7-year old boy who died yesterday.  Note that he also lived in the same district of Tuen Mun as the girl who died.  He started getting sick on Feb 24, and was absent from school on Feb 26.  On March 6th, he was taken to the Tuen Mun Hospital Emergency room because of continuous fever for 2 days and coughing for more than a week.  He was sent home with some meds, but did not improve.  He was seen in a private hospital the next day.  At 2am on March 8th, his parents found him to be unconscious with 'stiff limbs'.  He was taken to Tuen Mun Hospital again and admitted to the ICU.  On March 10th, he deteriorated and was put on a ventilator.  His parents were told that he had 'encephalitis' and was brain dead.  He was pronounced dead on 11 March.  The Government Information Service is reporting that "further laboratory tests yielded positive results for influenza-A, or H1N1."

This case is worrisome because many children in his school has fallen ill as well, and 7 of them are still in hospital.  They are all said to be in stable condition.  Prof Yuen Kwok-yung of the University of Hong Kong says that this is a super-spreader event, and that they will sequence the virus to determine whether any mutation may have happened to cause an increase in virulence.

Current case in ICU  Another 3-year old boy is being treated at the Princess Margaret Hospital ICU for respiratory infection and has tested positive for H1N1.  His condition is said to be stable.

A team of experts headed by Yuen has been appointed to investigate these deaths.  Their investigation will focus on 3 areas:

1) from the epidemiological viewpoint, why were so many children in one school infected with severe disease, with 7 still hospitalized and one dead.

2) why the clinical courses were so rapid and death happened so soon after onset of disease

3) review of the pathology plus the sequence of viral samples, to discover any mutations that may explain the severity..

Finally, here's an interesting chart from the Centre for Health Protection's influenza report March 12 March 14.  There appears to be a lot of H1N1 around this year compared to last year.

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This is a very complex situation
We have 2 fatal cases in the same district happening around the same time and yet they were supposedly infected by different viruses.  

It's hard to say exactly what's going on.  Samples from the schoolmates who are currently ill will probably tell us a lot.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


It looks like a high prevalence of B as well.
What was the bad strain of flu that caused so much trouble in Australia last year? I wonder if this Hong Kong outbreak is related?

Always have a plan B.

[ Parent ]
the one in Australia was H3N2, I think n/t




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
here's an additional chart
showing the number of reported flu outbreaks in institutions.

source http://www.chp.gov.hk/files/pd...



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


new chart from March 14




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
I posted a question to the HK government
in light of earlier reports in BBC Asia that appeared to suggest that the 3-year old girl may have died from 'a variant of bird flu'.

I received a clarification just now, that that report is incorrect.  All the flu samples they have tested this season have all been H1N1, H3N2, influenza B, etc.  However the outbreaks appear to be most severe in primary schools.  Hence the school closure.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


no mutation
P.L. Ho, a scientist at the University of Hong Kong's microbiology department, said the flu cases so far are scattered across the territory, which doesn't suggest the spread of an exceptionally virulent, mutated virus.

World Health Organization spokesman Gregory Hartl said the three deaths weren't directly related to the flu and that two had other illnesses


ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies


[ Parent ]
Strange
Tinfoil hat on. I'd not read this thread before. Gregory Hartl has to comment on the Hong Kong outbreak??? Normal flu is everywhere every year. Why did he have to comment on this? I know that Hong Kong had bird flu and SARS in the past, but is this sufficient enough a reason for him to comment on "normal" flu? Methinks someone was pretty worried it might not be "normal" flu. And if someone was that worried, maybe that someone had good reasons to be that worried. OK, call me paranoid!

Let me be blind to wicked text, deaf to wicked words, mute to wicked comments.

[ Parent ]
And another comment, and by Cordingley too!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...

And another comment, and by Cordingley too, just two days afterwards...

Quote "Hong Kong is simply experiencing a seasonal flu outbreak, said Peter Cordingley, the Manila-based spokesman for the World Health Organization's Western Pacific region."

Someone really had the jitter to get their big canons out for this one. I need more tinfoil...

Let me be blind to wicked text, deaf to wicked words, mute to wicked comments.


[ Parent ]
it was a big news item
reported in news media all over.  You must have missed it.  ;-)



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
But to her point
as Shakespeare said: "Me thinks he protests too much" may well apply here.

Dark Doctor


[ Parent ]
no, it WAS and SHOULD be a big news item ;-D
How often does a major city of millions close schools based on seasonal flu outbreaks?  It would of course be natural for all concerned, HK, PRC, WHO, news media, flubies, you name it, to be watching and wondering whether it was more than seasonal flu.  I'm sure the possibility of H5N1 was one of the first things for the HK doctors to consider and exclude.  ;-)

It really is no big secret that this was one major question and concern on everyone's minds. I sent them an email on the day asking about BBC Asia's initial report that suggested it might be avian flu, and I got a rapid reply telling me they had not found anything other than the H1, H3 and B from human samples the whole season so far, but that they were going to sequence the viruses from the deceased samples.  The results came out in the next day or so, and the rest, as they say, is history.  

Yes, everyone was concerned, everyone worried whether this might be H5, and nobody was taking any chances.  Which was exactly how it should be.  They have had repeated sporadic HPAI H5N1 isolated from birds in various parts of the city for the past year; they know very well they are at high risk.

Having said all that, everyone also know that even seasonal flu can cause severe outbreaks and fatalities in children.  In an outbreak escalating as quickly as it was, with many serious cases in very young children, and 2 fatalities within a short time, both the authorities and the public IMHO were right to be concerned.  

Remember at the time schools were closed, they didn't yet have the full sequences of the viruses.  Even though they knew it wasn't H5, there was still serious concern whether this was something different from the circulating strains.  In the event, there was no difference, but they didn't know that till later.  

As the Health Minster said, there was no way of knowing whether if they didn't close schools more young children would not have been severely affected and died.  I don't think any reasonably compassionate and responsible official could have gambled with kids' lives and be able to live with the consequences, not in an affluent and developed society anyhow.  The public would not have put up with it, and many parents and teachers were already quite vocal about the issues.  For me, what I saw was a well-informed society coming together to evaluate the situation, and coming to a very sensible conclusion and solution.  You can tell by how well the people mostly accepted this.

I'm a little wary about re-opening schools, but since a) the numbers fell quickly and more importantly b) virus sequences from the fatal cases did not show any mutation, I think it is reasonable on balance to re-open and monitor.  Epidemics rise exponentially, but once that rise is broke, it may not rise as rapidly again.  Plus now everyone is taking more precautions, which is great.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
question
They closed schools for 2 weeks in this case, but my understanding was, it was almost the start of spring/Easter break anyhow, so really they were only closing school for about 3 days or so -- correct?

If so -- if it HADN't happened to be the start of break anyhow -- do you (susan... or anyone) think they still would have closed school for the full two weeks?   Would it have been a more difficult decision?

And were the "two weeks" chosen as a timeframe for a specific reason, or was that simply the result of closing schools until break -- and then that break added up to the two weeks?

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.


[ Parent ]
Hmm, hard to say
I guess if it were me, the decision would have been the sum total of all the considerations, pros and cons etc.  Certainly the fact that it was close to the Easter break probably helped the decision.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
2 peaks per year

strange the peaks in March and July.
Do we have a graph for a longer period

here is a scetch of 1996-2000
http://magictour.free.fr/hkflu...

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies


2002-2006
see here:

http://www.chp.gov.hk/guidelin...

you can open the 3 big .pdf and just look at the last
page for a graph of ILI of that year and the 2 previous ones.

The peak in Feb.,March is usually bigger than the one in Jun,Jul,Aug

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies


[ Parent ]
from WSJ
Nick Zamiska is an excellent reporter (in region).

Researcher Seeks to Ease Worries Over Flu Outbreak in Hong Kong

Despite the government's drastic closure of Hong Kong's primary schools and kindergartens for two weeks, there are no signs that the outbreak of influenza that has killed three children here is anything other than a normal outbreak of seasonal flu, according to the lead Hong Kong scientist investigating the outbreak and other health experts following the situation.

Yuen Kwok-yung, the government's lead researcher on the outbreak and chair of microbiology at the University of Hong Kong, described the infections as "just a bad outbreak" caused by genetic variation in normal influenza viruses.

"There are no signs of SARS or bird flu," he said, referring to the severe respiratory disease that gripped Hong Kong in 2003 and to avian influenza, which could cause a pandemic if it ever became readily transmissible among people. H5N1, the strain of bird flu likeliest to spark a pandemic, was ruled out in the deaths of the three Hong Kong children, who had no underlying disease, Dr. Yuen said.



from the Guardian UK
Hong Kong flu scare closes schools and kindergartens

Hong Kong closed its primary schools and kindergartens this morning, giving more than half a million students a two-week holiday, after the deaths of up to four children amid a flu outbreak.

But while the move sparked concern among parents, both the government and outside experts described it as merely a precautionary measure.

The authorities are thought to be particularly cautious because of the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome outbreak in 2003 that killed almost 300 people and brought ordinary life in the territory to a halt. The government was subsequently criticised for not acting quickly enough.

"When you wait until you have all the data, it's too late," York Chow, the health secretary, said today.

He told reporters he had decided to act now in light of the deaths and because a higher proportion of young children seemed to be affected this year, even though the overall level of infection was the same or only slightly higher than usual.

Only two of the children, who died at the same hospital, are known for certain to have had flu.

But Chow said: "If there are two deaths related to flu even before the peak, then we need to do something to minimise the numbers in the weeks to come.






All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


Oops! Meant to post it to the other thread n/t




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
double infection
7-year-old boy's condition rather strange has infected H3 and H1 2 strain of influenza virus.

At the same time in the serum of patients inside, we found even in a very short period of time there are H3 antibody reaction on the inside, we find the patient in the H3 Regenerated inside, only H1 virus, this very strange. We have reason to believe that he may in a short period of time inside, the H3 to have the infection, and then there are H1 infection, we believe that the cause of his death is an important reason why.

As for the 3-year-old girl died of cases are found in multiple organs of a fat, he pointed out that the Reye's Syndrome and the general different.

For example, her liver enzymes in the blood ammonia are not Reye syndrome, we have reason to believe she may have congenital defects, perhaps a congenital metabolic enzymes something had gone wrong with it is not yet sure that her blood and urine temporarily can not find aspirin and similar ferment substance inside.  

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies


where did you read that
7-year-old boy's condition rather strange has infected H3 and H1 2 strain of influenza virus.

Can you give us a link?  Thanks.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
google translated
can you read Chinese, BTW. ?

I was checking :

http://news.google.de/news?ned...

it was one of the articles, 7 min.ago, when I posted it

I'll try to find it, but it's in Chinese

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies


[ Parent ]
link
OK, here is the link:

http://big5.soundofhope.org/pr...

google-translation:

The toxicity of influenza experts that urged the public not to panic by program feedback
Email to a Friend
March 13, 2008 Thursday programmes length: 3 minutes 6 seconds to download mp3

Government appointment of the three children died of suspected cases of influenza with the Panel of Experts, after a meeting on Thursday that showed no evidence of influenza virus toxicity strengthened, and appealed to the public not panic. But team leader, said seven-year-old boy has two influenza A virus infection, and the illness was rather strange, need further study.
Three children to lead the investigation into suspected cases of influenza died Thursday afternoon group meeting, the head of the University of Hong Kong Yuen Kwok-yung, head of microbiology (AP) appealed to the public not to panic after.

Chairman of the Department of Microbiology of the University of Hong Kong Yuen Kwok-yung: Tuen Mun Hospital Therefore, we read the death of the two cases, we have come to the conclusion that the time being there is no evidence that the Hong Kong flu virus now than in the past some particularly serious and high toxicity, In addition to the patient because we lungs, in other parts of all kinds of less than influenza virus, because if it is toxic, we should be in other organs, should be planted in the influenza virus.

He pointed out that in the Tuen Mun Hospital deaths of the three-year-old and 7-year-old boy were found to have influenza A virus, but did not identify them died because of influenza, including 7-year-old boy's condition rather strange has infected H3 and H1 2 strain of influenza virus.

Chairman of the Department of Microbiology of the University of Hong Kong Yuen Kwok-yung: At the same time in the serum of patients inside, we found even in a very short period of time there are H3 antibody reaction on the inside, we find the patient in the H3 Regenerated inside, only H1 virus, this very strange. We have reason to believe that he may in a short period of time inside, the H3 to have the infection, and then there are H1 infection, we believe that the cause of his death is an important reason why.

Yuen Kwok-yung, said that will be next Monday to Tuen Mun Hospital for observation boy's anatomy, and you will need two weeks to compare the genetic maps to determine whether the virus variants.

As for the 3-year-old girl died of cases are found in multiple organs of a fat, he pointed out that the Reye's Syndrome and the general different.

Chairman of the Department of Microbiology of the University of Hong Kong Yuen Kwok-yung: For example, her liver enzymes in the blood ammonia are not Reye syndrome, we have reason to believe she may have congenital defects, perhaps a congenital metabolic enzymes something had gone wrong with it is not yet sure that her blood and urine temporarily can not find aspirin and similar ferment substance inside.

In addition, last month the Prince of Wales Hospital in Sha Tin death of two-year-old child, could not be found influenza virus, needed further investigation. The latest disclosure of the fourth case is a 21-month-old boy, suspected to have died of influenza, but are temporarily absent investigation. Voices of Hope Linxiuyi reporters in Hong Kong reported.

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies


[ Parent ]
you're right
this is very interesting.

antibodies to H3 and also testing positive for H1.  

This looks like a good enough summary, but I'll search for more articles, and verify what it's saying.  Then I'll try to translate the most important bits.

Thanks for finding it!



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Here's another article, same info:
In addition, experts in the serum samples of the boy found H3 influenza antibodies, but the boy H1 influenza infection is believed that the boy in a short period of time different types of influenza infection.

Ming Pao News:
http://translate.google.com/tr...


[ Parent ]
immune
is it possible ?
We know, that after vaccination it takes a few weeks until immunity
builds up, but after real infection the body already is fighting
the virus.
There should be crosstype-cellular-immunity against all flus
I'd thought. Well, it should last at least some months
until the next wave comes.

But I'm no immunologist

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies


[ Parent ]
thanks.
Lots of new media reports coming out now.  I'll go and check through them.  Seems like a lot of interesting info.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
a very preliminary point
I need to look some more but I have to post this first.  Two new seriously ill kids are both in the same Tuen Mun Hospital.  All from the same district.  Interesting..



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
yes I can
can you read Chinese, BTW. ?

If you find something important, let me know.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
translation
of this article

http://premium.mingpao.com/cfm...

The number of cases of severe or fatal influenza-related cases in children reported to the Centre for Health Protection (CHP) has risen to 7, with the addition of 2 seriously ill girls (7- and 8- years old).  Both reports are from Tuen Mun Hospital, (where the 2 fatal cases were reported).  The Department of Health (DOH) and Hospital Authority (HA) are searching and analyzing data from the past few years of pediatric influenza hospital admission and death data, to determine the (incidence and) trend of pediatric influenza deaths and severe complications.

In addition, preliminary investigations by a group of experts into the death of the 7-year old boy at Tuen Mun Hospital revealed signs that he may have been first infected with an H3 virus, and then with an H1 virus.  This is a 'strange occurrence' (NB, not the coinfection per se, but the sequential infection as well), and one cannot exclude the possibility that his immune response may have been weakened by steroid medications that he was taking for treatment of asthma, which caused the second infection with H1 complicated by encephalitis and death.

The incidence of flu outbreaks recorded by the Department of Health has reached a new high of 50, affecting more than 300 people.  Overall, the Centre for Health Protection has received 4 cases of deaths in children suspected to be related to influenza, and 3 cases of children with high fever and other flu like symptoms with rapid deterioration.  The children are all aged under 10, with 4 of them reported from the Tuen Mun Hospital.

The 2 new severe cases placed under observation/investigation, are girls aged 7 and 8.  The first girl attends a school where an influenza outbreak was confirmed on March 12.  The second girl's school also had a confirmed flu outbreak yesterday.  The Department of Health has not disclosed further details of the girls' conditions, only that they were admitted in March and are now in stable condition.

The head of the CHP Dr Thomas Tsang said their most important task now is to conduct an in-depth investigation of the causes of death of the first 3 children, and see if there are any special circumstances.  The DOH and HA are establishing a systematic method of researching and analyzing pediatric influenza admission and death data, as the baseline for the current investigation.  Last year there were about 1400 admissions to public hospitals for influenza for children aged 12 or under.

According to HK University Microbiologist Dr Ho Pak-leung, research (unspecified) shows that between 2000 and 2006, the number of admissions for influenza for ages 0-2, 3-5, and 6-14 were 2958, 1890, and 1597, with 1, 2 and 3 deaths respectively in the 3 age cohorts. Therefore the government's figures are a gross underestimation.  He calls for speedy research and analysis of the true incidence for hospital admissions.

The team of experts tasked with investigating the causes of these child deaths met for 4 hours yesterday.  The head of the team, Prof Yuen Kwok-yung from the University of Hong Kong says for the 7-year old boy who died from 'acute encephalitis', the case has some 'strange features'.  The boy had fallen ill on Feb 24th, and died on March 9th.  The time interval from onset to death was fairly long, and is different from the normal time-course of encephalitis caused by influenza.

In addition, the boy's serum sample shows antibodies to influenza H3, but the boy was infected with an H1 virus.  It is believed that the boy was infected by 2 different subtypes of influenza viruses within a short space of time.  The boy had a history of taking steroids for control of asthma before he became ill.  This may have reduced his immunity.  When he became infected with H3, he was more likely to have serious complications.

The team of experts will attend the autopsy on Monday at the Tuen Mun Hospital, and conduct tissue biopsy/pathology and virology investigations, to determine the cause of death.

As for the 3-year old girl who died earlier.  Autopsy showed fatty changes in her liver, heart, and kidneys.  The serum ammonia level and liver enzyme levels are not consistent with Reye's Syndrome.  Aspirin and related salicylates were not detected in urine and blood samples.  These together suggest that the girls may have had a congenital metabolic disease.

Yuen emphasized that there is no indication at the current time that the influenza virus strains circulating in Hong Kong are more virulent than previous seasons.  This is because apart from samples from respiratory secretions and lungs, no virus was detected in other tissue samples in either of these fatal cases.  This indicates that they were not infected with particularly virulent strains.  In addition, there has been a particularly long cold spell, so an influenza outbreak is to be expected.  The experts will do genetic sequence analysis of the viruses isolated, to determine if there are mutations.

As for the 2-year old who died (in February) at the Prince of Wales Hospital, no influenza has been detected, and the cause of death is still unknown.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


more details
this article gives a more in-depth explanation of the 2 virus situation.  http://www1.appledaily.atnext....

(this is not an actual translation).

The explanation given by Prof Yuen from HKU was that the boy had been taking steroids for asthma and this would have caused a suppression of his immune response.  This meant that when he was infected first with the H3N2 virus, he was less able to mount an adequate immune response, such that he became infected with a second flu strain H1N1.  But because the steroids were stopped, the virus is able to proliferate even more vigorously.





All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
this last bit requires a bit more explanation
In general, someone who is taking steroid medications will have some degree of suppression of immune response, such that any infections may be more severe.

In addition, in someone taking steroids for any length of times (sometimes for as little as 1-2 weeks), there will be some degree of suppression of their own adrenal glands.  

In acute infections, the adrenal glands play an important immune regulatory role.  Any suppression due to medication means that when the person is infected, his adrenals are less able to respond accordingly.  

Therefore, even though someone on steroids may have reduced immune response due to the drugs, in acute infections, stopping the drugs can actually be more dangerous, as the person's own adrenal glands are not able to kick in with the appropriate response.  Any infection is then likely to run rampant and cause rapid deterioration and possibly death.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Question
Do we have any numbers on how many children are hospitalized? We see those that are "serious" but unless I've missed something, I haven't seen total numbers of children hospitalized.

I didn't come across the total number
but they do say that overall pediatric admissions are 60-70% higher than the same time last year.  That is very high.  

Having said that, we know that like any other country, there is very little surge capacity to speak of, so it doesn't an extremely severe outbreak to overwhelm hospitals.

My take is the biggest cause of concern is that the most severe cases are all appearing in the younger children.

Secondarily, there is some concern as to whether the 2 deaths are related, since they are both in the same district, as are at least 2 of the severe cases still in hospital.  Yuen Kwok-yung yesterday said there might have been a super-spreader event.  They didn't comment on that any further today, just focusing on the clinical history and lab findings etc.

The question really is are the 2 fatal cases severe because they had underlying problems, one a metabolic disease and the other the use of steroids?  Or is there something else going on, since the boy's schoolmates also seem to be catching some rather severe illness, although not fatal.




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
updates
thanks.
They give daily updates now:
http://www.chp.gov.hk/text/epi...

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies


[ Parent ]
*overall* pediatric admissions? hmm,
that sounds a bit worse. :-/

It could be that there are more respiratory viruses around, generally?  Or are many of those "excess admissions" due to flu?

A small question on the side: If there's no surge capacity, maybe someone is trying "good home care of influenza" now?

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
gene sequences from HK fatal cases same as circulating strains
(cross posted from news thread)

from the Daily Update of Influenza Situation March 14 from the Hong Kong Centre for Health Protection

Gene sequencing results available today on the 7-year-old boy who died in TMH confirmed that the H1N1 virus in the boy has the same genetic makeup as the circulating H1N1 (Brisbane) strains in Hong Kong. Earlier, gene sequencing results on the 3-year-old girl who died in TMH found that H3N2 virus in the girl has same genetic composition as the circulating H3N2 (Brisbane) strains as well.  Both strains have been circulating in different parts of the world during the past few months.  These results confirm that the 2 children did not  die from a new virus that is more virulent than the circulating strains in the region.  



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


Interest in a China news diary?
Is anyone interested in starting (and maintaining) a China news diary to provide an easy way to track all of the news stories about China?

sure, if someone wants to do that ;-)
I'm really supposed to be taking time out to work on other commitments.  I had to bring myself back to do this cos of the importance of what was happening in HK.  But as the situation quietens down, I will keep an eye on events and contribute with translations and comments only when important things are happening.  Otherwise, I apologize but I'm unable to maintain a constant series of reporting on China or HK.

And thanks, AlohaOR for all that you do!



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Agree with AlohaOR
How about making one diary on this to keep things simple.

[ Parent ]
This is very strange, in fact an anomaly in my view
While regrettable, the deaths of these children during flu season are not very remarkable.  What is anomalous is not the deaths of children during routine flu season but the closure of the schools by the HK authorities.  Now this is simply way out of the ordinary especially since according to the press release the virus that caused the deaths were just routine flu.  Why did they take such dramatic action?

Children have died this year in the US from seasonal flu too. In fact a whole lot more than the few children have died this year here but no schools were closed here or elsewhere or as far as I know.   But in HK, they closed all the schools.  Strange!  In fact this is a real mystery in my opinion.

Well, I admit to being a bit paranoid, suspicious of the truthfulness of the PRC, and quite frankly don't trust the PRC at all.  Now, maybe I am simply stating the obvious, this whole episode just does not make sense unless the children did not have routine seasonal flu.  What fits the actions of the HK and PRC governments a whole lot better is that these children died of H5N1.  But if so why would the HK government and PRC mislead the press and people about this?  Children and adults are dying all over the East and Middle East as well as in China proper on a regular basis of H5N1.  So why would they wish to mislead the world about this now?

The 2008 Olympics of course.  The entire foreign and domestic policy of the country seems to be revolving around the Olympic Games and the PRC is doing everything it can to prevent the games from failing.  Look how they have responded to the Tibetan resistance movement.  They are terrified of H5N1 and the impact that could have on tourism and the games.  We know they have played fast and loose with the truth regarding H5N1 in their country before, why not now? HK has been designated as one of the gateway cities for the games and many people visiting the PRC for the games will be either passing through HK or visiting there too.  This may be motive enough for them to lie about this.  

IMO, the HK and PRC government would not close the schools simply because a few children died of routine flu.  They just wouldn't.  We know the lied about SARS and covered that up until there were so many people sick and dead from the virus that the coverup simply fell apart.  These governments certainly have the ability to have any data they wish to be released by the medical authorities in HK.  This speaks to the means and method to coverup the truth.  They have the motive, protecting the success of the Olympic games to ensure their success.  They are known to have lied in the past about SARS and the extent of H5N1 within the PRC so why not now?

Admittedly I have no idea if these musing are simply a ridiculous fantasy of a paranoid suspicious old fool or possibly an alternative view of the facts that fits them better than the story and data released by the HK and PRC governments.  I will leave it up to you to decide because I have no idea where the truth lay.  We may never know what the truth here is but at least I thought it would be of interest to put in my two cents.  

The Dark Doctor


comment on governance and transparency
First of all, the HK government and the PRC are operated under very different systems, traditions.  The civil service in Hong Kong is one of the most highly regarded and transparent.  Admittedly there isn't full democracy and some issues with political freedom, but in terms of domestic civil society governance generally the standard of accountability and transparency is high.  Let me give you several examples of how differently these 2 places are ranked by different criteria and different experts/institutions.  I'm also including where available the ranking of the US for comparison.

The Heritage Index of Economic Freedom, a survey of 162 countries by the Heritage Foundation and the Wall Street Journal, ranks Hong Kong #1, US at #5, and China #126 out of 162 countries.  Hong Kong is in fact placed first for 14 years in a row.

Transparency International ranking on Corruption Perception Index puts Hong Kong at #15, US at #20, and China at #70.

The Economist Business Environment index places Hong Kong at #6, ahead of the US in #9, whereas the UK is not within the top 15.  I don't have access to the full list to find out where China is placed.

The Doing Business project by the World Bank ranks Hong Kong at #4, US at #20, and China at #83.

Freedom House rankings

China:
Political Rights Score: 7
Civil Liberties Score: 6
Status: Not Free

Hong Kong:
Political Rights Score: 5
Civil Liberties Score: 2
Status: Partly Free

United States of America:
Political Rights Score: 1
Civil Liberties Score: 1
Status: Free

For more comparisons, check out Wikipedia for International rankings of Hong Kong vs International Rankings of PRC



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
wikipedia
has a pretty full account of Hong Kong including political controversies.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
here's an interesting one
the Access Index by FedEx.  First, here's what it is:

The Access Indexâ„¢ developed by SRI International at FedEx's request provides insights into the power and importance of the concept of access at the national level.  This index incorporates 22 different variables measuring both physical access and information access.

Physical access - eight indicators in two subcategories:

  1. Trade indicators measure the "openness" of an economy from an international trade perspective (tariff revenues, hidden import barriers, etc.).4
  2. Transport indicators measure the extent of access supported by the existing transportation infrastructure (port infrastructure, air transport infrastructure, etc.) in each country.

Information access - fourteen indicators in two subcategories:
  1. Telecommunications indicators measure hardware (main telephone lines, personal computers, etc.), service availability (number of mobile telephone subscribers, speed of Internet access, etc.), and costs of service (cellular connection charges, business and residential telephone monthly subscriber charges, etc.).
  2. News, Media, and Information Services indicators measure the ability to obtain information through various media (televisions, radios, newspapers, etc.).

And the results?

Hong Kong #1
US #12
China #52



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
I agree that HK is not yet China
These are important points. I watch the business news on Bloomberg often at night from HK and completely agree with your points here.  But there is a but.  The PRC does control what they think the must control even in HK.  BF may possibly be one of those issues, IMHO.

GW


[ Parent ]
so to answer your question
Hong Kong is a highly developed economy (or 'Advanced Economy' by IMF definition) with a high standard of living, open society, albeit limited in political freedom.

It's people are just like people in such highly developed economies - they do not tolerate risk to their children well.  At all.

Yes, there are deaths from flu in the US, but imagine if 3 cases are getting high profile reporting in the media in the same city, d'you think parents in the US would be panicking too?  Particularly if you get a city that has gone through SARS which killed 300 people.  

Let me repeat.  300 people.  What do you think is the impact of that experience?

Add that to the real rising outbreaks in schools, and real increase in flu cases, with hospitals reporting 60-70% increase in pediatric admissions, you have to conclude that it was a serious outbreak.  Look particularly at this outbreak chart.  Just before they closed schools, it sure would have been hard to tell where it was all going.





All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
True again
The published reality may to true.  No question about it.  I am simply raising an alternative hypothesis, one that also fits the facts but not one that I claim to be a fact.  Just a possibility that occurs to me.  The musings of an old fool as I said.  Nothing more.

GW


[ Parent ]
sure, it's always reasonable and prudent
to doubt and ask probing questions.  Plus, why should you trust what anyone is saying on faith anyhow?

My faith is a lot stronger in this instance, only because I grew up and worked in that society and have a good sense of how things work.  I cannot apply the same to PRC though.  

I guess if you look at the various rankings, you can say that my confidence in either one corresponds roughly to the rankings.  See what I mean?  LOL



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Regarding the rankings
I agree wholeheartedly.

GW


[ Parent ]
comment on HK school closure
It might be a small point -- and I could be mistaken I admit -- but my understanding was, in Hong Kong, they only closed the elementary schools, not the high schools.  (And they only closed the elementary schools because so many parents were worried.)

If they HAD been (secretly) concerned about H5N1, I would expect that they would have closed ALL the schools.  Especially in light of the recent study that said that "High-school students may form the local transmission backbone of the next pandemic."

http://www.pubmedcentral.nih.g...

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.


[ Parent ]
yes, elementary schools
or primary schools as they call them, kindergartens, and nurseries.  I did ask about this and they said the main concern was the outbreaks seemed to target younger children.  And the severe and fatal cases were all of that younger age-group.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Some other anomalies regarding the HK events
I have a great deal of respect and admiration for the people of HK and their magnificent achievements.  The standard of living is better there than in most US cities what's more the educational level and general literacy rates are too.  Medical care is excellent and I would have no problem with having one of my family members or myself being treated in that medical community, none at all.

That said, Susan the child with asthma that died, do you know he/she was using inhaled or oral steriods because this would make a difference regarding whether or not the child was immune-suppressed or not.

The report seems to indicate that this child was infected with two strains of seasonal flu.  Yes, we know that this can and does happen but is not common.  An alternative hypothesis is that the medical data was cooked by a PRC political officer who was not entirely aware of virology and got something mixed up.  The doctor's assigned to look into these cases seem to have had to rely on medical records rather than eyeballing the patient.  So, it is possible that the records they saw were already messaged before they had a chance to comment on them.  The HK doctors in this case may have nothing to do with the coverup and in fact could have been the victims of it just as the rest of the world would be.  I am not saying this is what happened, just that this is a strange circumstance and difficult to reconcile clearly to me.

Also, the postmortem reports of "fat" changes in the one of the children's organs, what exactly are they referring to here.  Do they mean fatty necrosis or organ breakdown.  If so, this is, IMO, more consistent with the organ damage seen in 1918 and in many current victims of H5N1.

Yes, there were a lot of flu cases in children at the time they closed the schools but these deaths were spread out over a number of weeks for the most part.  They didn't occur one right on top of the other, a clustering that would be more alarming to an informed HK population.  Also, flu season lasted longer than just 2 weeks.  If they were really concerned for the stated reasons, why reopen the schools so quickly?

GW


yeah anything is possible ;-)
So let's just say for arguments sakes that the kid died from H5N1 infection.  

You have to remember that many children in his school were also falling sick, some needing hospitalization.  Did they also have H5N1?  Were those results also 'doctored' (My, what a word!  lol)?

What about the big outbreaks that were just happening in so many schools at the same time?  A total of 50 schools reported outbreaks on the day just before the school closure announcement.  Some schools had > 100 students out sick!  Did they all suffer from H5N1, you think?  Were all the test results massaged?  

If yes, what would you say accounts for the apparent low CFR?  You think maybe they also HID the dead as well?  

Remember this is a society despite having limited democracy is ranked by many measures as one of the most open, where information is easiest to obtain.  (eg ranked #1 for Access Index, including information access).  Don't you think it would be a bit hard to hide all those dead kids and grieving and no doubt angry parents?

;-D



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Given the pre-pandemic H5N1's mortality rate seen so far
the answer is clear that most of the sick kids in HK did have seasonal flu.  You are right, they could not have hid a lot of deaths in a society as open as HK no mater what the PRC wanted.  The SARS experience proves that there is only so much disinformation that a closed society can get away with.

Not to beat a dead horse...
(why is it that every time someone desires to do just that, beat a dead horse, they claim that is the not the case?)

the fact is they did close the schools and in one of your recent posts you imply that this was indeed unusual.  Yes it was, very unusual.

Let me beat the horse with another alternative interpretation that may fits these anomalous facts.  Here goes: A routine seasonal influenza epidemic was underway in HK.  No big deal.  Some children died.  Again, this is not unexpected but one or more children died of H5N1 and at least one of the children was found to be co-infected with both H5N1 and the common Brisbane strain within his or her cells.  This caused great alarm since we know that the 1957 and 1968 pandemic began when a well adapted human flu strain exchanged genes with the pre-pandemic strain that resulted in the pandemic.  A high percentage of virologist think this is exactly how the next pandemic could begin.  If this scenario is indeed what happened I imagine that it could have caused the HK authorities to panic and led to the unusual action they took.  Three weeks of intense surveillance with rapid sequencing of as many specimens as they could handle and lots of outside advice would follow.  At some point, someone would have concluded that no genetic exchange had occurred and this was simply a random one off event and that there was no reason to keep the schools closed for longer.

The HK and PRC governments and WHO would all adhere to the cover story.  End of story, no need to unset the public with the truth.  

I wonder what the rating for openness and honesty the WHO would receive with respect to their handling of the pandemic so far?

Dark Doctor


[ Parent ]
good observation! ;-D
why is it that every time someone desires to do just that, beat a dead horse, they claim that is the not the case?

Jokes aside, yes, in an infinite universe, there are always infinite alternate explanations or realities. Get 100 people to read the same news article, you'll get 100 different interpretations.  Or speculations.  Or whatever.  lol



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
the other thing about this is
this IS such an unusual occurrence as to deserve a lot of attention, but the sobering part is, come a pandemic, at the very beginning before the pandemic virus has taken hold, when seasonal flu might also be around, we will have many cities and countries having such challenges, of overwhelmed officials trying to figure out which are seasonal flu and which are pandemic flu outbreaks, with a less-than-clued-up media writing incorrect or misguided reports and the public panicking about ANY flu-like illness among their neighbors.

It will be ugly, confusing, and may have consequences even before the actual pandemic outbreak has risen to a substantial level.  Hence the need IMO to pay a lot of attention to improving access to accurate and up-to-the-minute information during those weeks.  http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Yes, I think the same as you on this
It has been my opinion for several years that the pandemic will begin during flu season.  At first this was based on my adherence to the dogma that pandemics begin by reassortment and the chances for that happening are obviously more plentiful during the flu season than at other time points.  With the Taubenberger findings about the origins of H1N1 and the lack of H5N1 reassorting to date despite many opportunities to do so, I have now joined the Ninan Recombination camp as being an important method for potential pandemic strains to acquire the segments needed to adapt to humans.  

Since recombination can occur in both avian and mammalian species and the results of that exchange can assist its human adaptation even when it occurs in a non-human species, this means outbreak is not necessarily confined to the winter.  What's more, summer in the northern hemisphere is winter in the south as we all know and the pre-pandemic virus while predominated located in the north presently could and should move to the south soon in large numbers.  Human infections will inevitably follow this migration.

Another point of interest here is that most cases of pre-pandemic H5N1 in humans are occurring in areas near the equator suggesting that seasonality may not be playing as strong a role as I use to think.  Sure, in these regions we have Swine, Poultry, and humans in closer contact that in other places and this probably has more to do with this observation than seasonality.  It also could be due to certain restrictions of the current virus's ability to tolerate cold. Very few cases have occurred in Russia and except for Turkey none in Western Europe.  There could be and probably are many other explanations for this but it is an interesting observation in my view.  A similar anomaly is why haven't there been more human cases in Nigeria and surrounding areas?  This might be a surveillance failure but if not, that seems strange as weather and the swine, poultry, human factor are similar in these regions to those of Indonesia and Vietnam.  I know there are differences too be none the less, it seems strange that there have been so few central African cases.  

However, in my view, it makes little difference if outbreak occurs during flu season or not.   Once it occurs then that fact is what is of overriding public health significance.  It would be foolish to try and decide if someone has pandemic or seasonal flu.  This is not presently possible technically on a wide enough scale to be a factor anyway.  

The best medical and public health approach in those circumstances will be to assume anyone with flu has pandemic flu whether that is true or not.  Even if it is not true in many instances initially, ultimately it will be true since the pandemic flu is likely to displace its less vigorous and virulent remote well adapted seasonal flu cousin becoming the dominate strain in due time.  

The Doctor


[ Parent ]
various thoughts
first, overall, I believe the science is unclear as to how much seasonality affects the virus's ability to achieve the final step before a pandemic.  Certainly current H5N1 human outbreaks do seem to follow more-or-less the peaks of the local flu seasons, if only because whatever environmental conditions that favor flu viruses in general will favor both the seasonal and the avian (and presumably the pandemic) strains as well.

However, I do think that a pandemic arising during the flu season is likely to cause significantly more adverse societal effects, simply because a) environmental factors favor transmission and thus the outbreak will grow faster, and b) even a slow build-up of pandemic cases in the middle of a lot of seasonal flu is going to cause everyone to assume all cases are pandemic flu, thereby exacerbating the panic and whatever avoidance or hoarding behavior the public are likely to adopt.  

While it may seem irrelevant from your clinician's POV whether the patient you are treating is suffering from pandemic flu, do we really have the luxury of treating all patients as pandemic patients?  I would suspect that we are going to be severely limited by the amount of antivirals (and everything else) available to combat the pandemic.  Do you want to spend it all in one go, at the beginning, when most of the cases are likely to be seasonal flu cases?

Eventually, of course, as you pointed out, the pandemic strain is likely to displace the circulating seasonal strain, but do we know how fast this happens?  As usual, we have very little solid data, or at least I'm not aware of very specific knowledge as to how fast this happens.  All that I know is that there are early mutations recognized the 1957 and 68 pandemic viruses that were subsequently augmented by other mutations which further enhanced the human adaptation.  (Check out this study on Early Alterations of the Receptor-Binding Properties of H1, H2, and H3 Avian Influenza Virus Hemagglutinins after Their Introduction into Mammals as well as the more recent concern over the swine H2N3 acquiring what may possibly be changes similar to the early 1957 pandemic viruses.)  

Personally, I think it matters a great deal, the first few weeks of a pandemic, for the public to get very accurate information as to how much of the flu activity is due to seasonal strains vs the pandemic strain.  As the Hong Kong outbreak clearly shows, you can have a relatively severe season that is caused by a combination of several strains instead of a particular one.  With the best will in the world, our state of preparedness is likely to be so poor that every bit of resource is going to be very precious, and we need to take great care in spending them, IMO.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
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