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This is an international website intended to remain accessible to as many people as possible. The opinions expressed here are those of the individual posters who remain solely responsible for the content of their messages.
The use of good judgement during the discussion of controversial issues would be greatly appreciated.

What's The Role The Internet Will (And Should) Play During A Pandemic?

by: DemFromCT

Thu Mar 27, 2008 at 19:58:07 PM EDT


That's a question we had to grapple with during the recent HHS exercise on pandemic communication we participated in. As Lisa Schnirring of CIDRAP News reported last week, in an excellent description of the proceedings:
DemFromCT :: What's The Role The Internet Will (And Should) Play During A Pandemic?
The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently held a tabletop exercise to assess how it could best work with the news media-including blogs and other online-only information sources-to get status updates and vital health information to the American people during an influenza pandemic.

The session was held on Mar 17 at HHS headquarters in Washington, DC. Representatives from online avian-flu information services such as Avian Flu Diary, FluTrackers, FluWiki, WebMD, and CIDRAP News participated in the exercise along with those from several national media organizations, including ABC News, National Public Radio, and Reuters.

...

Federal officials at the table included HHS Secretary Leavitt and representatives from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), Department of State, Department of Homeland Security, and the Coast Guard.

Representatives from state health departments and healthcare facilities also took part in the exercise, because they will also be fielding questions from the media and online sources throughout an influenza pandemic, and especially at the beginning.

The session started with some flu basics, which regular readers here would have been familiar with, and presented a scenario that grew from routine information currently available, to the outbreak of cases around the world, in the US and locally.  More from CIDRAP:
Details about the pandemic exercise were off the record, but the scenario featured intensified activity overseas that prompted the World Health Organization to raise its pandemic alert stage. The situation then progressed to one suspected H5N1 case in the United States, which led to dozens of cases in major cities on both coasts.

At several points during the exercise, moderator Forrest Sawyer, a former news anchor with ABC and NBC who now runs his own media production and strategy company, Freefall Productions, asked the news media and online outlets to predict what their headlines would be and what information they would need from HHS, CDC, and other agencies.

The details of the scenario are not only off the record, they're unimportant (of interest, the CFR used was significantly higher than the 11-12% I observed at CDC the week prior for their exercise, and early on in a pandemic likely will be hard to nail down.) What's important to emphasize is that the questions we were confronted with (and that we asked ourselves) not only could happen, but do happen. How do we deal with rumors? When and do we use our sources, and when and how do we identify them? What do we put online and why? Are we afraid of a panicked public (and before dismissing the concept, remember that we are dealing with the scenario of an actual pandemic and an unprepared public)?

The flu bloggers work in a fairly transparent world (pseudonymnity aside), and in some cases, we deal with those questions now. For example, if you want to see how we deal with rumors, check how we (and others) handled the Toronto couple that may have had H5N1 (but didn't) earlier this month. While the Toronto hospital was unhappy with the attention, we were unhappy with the media handling by the Toronto hospital. There are always lessons to be learned by both sides, but the main one here is transparency and common sense: don't do a test to rule out a condition while denying the possibility the condition exists. That one doesn't pass the smell test, and we all picked up on it - as Mike Leavitt said on his blog,

"These people knew their stuff."
We aren't journalists, we're specialty bloggers. We put rumors out there so they can be confirmed or debunked. We also let officials astute enough to read us know what rumors are out there. We rely for the most part on news services, but in some cases, have our own sources. But what we add, the same as traditional media, is context.

It's hard won experience, but we learned from Turkey in 2006 and Indonesia before and since that there are outbreaks of various kinds going on all the time, and moves that federal and state officials are taking to prepare are sometimes routine and sometimes more than routine. Some are PR, but some have significant meaning (such as the PAHPA legislation that created the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness Response.) It's why we spend time trying to dissect this, so we better understand what it means to us locally.

Another issue touched upon in the HHS exercise, and mentioned by CIDRAP is 'embedding'.  

During the exercise the communications officials from HHS floated the idea of "embedding" some of their staff in media organizations to ease access to official information during a pandemic. The agency also said its media access policies now treat reputable blogs and other reputable online services the same as traditional media organizations.

Stephanie Marshall, director of pandemic communications at HHS, told CIDRAP News that because growing numbers of people are going to online sources for news and information, "It's important for the government to understand how best to work with bloggers and other online journalists to distribute information. The exercise and the insights offered by the participating bloggers will help us improve and refine our existing pandemic communications plan."

Personally, I find 'embedding' an unfortunate term. It's an inside-the beltway phrase used to indicate easier access, but to the rest of us, it raises uncomfortable issues about transparency in a pseudonymous world (am I an HHS embed because I've attended HHS events? Nah. Are you? Probably not). That conversation didn't go very far other than everyone agreeing that:

1. every blog or news organization can't possibly have its own expert loaned to us by HHS or CDC or NIH and
2. online entities like blogs and forums need the same access to the alphabets (HHS, CDC, DHS, etc) as traditional media. In a real pandemic we are going to want to know what they have to say.

The traditional media were as skeptical as we were of the mechanics of how that would work, but we will all want information, so that's going to have to be a work in progress to figure out.

As far as a 'panicked public', this has been discussed at length in many places. The better prepared the public is, the less panic there will be, but if we have bad things happening, there's going to be a good number of upset and worried people even if they don't panic (or even if panic is not the right word). It's a relevant topic because local officials in Utah just canceled a pandemic prep class

because it would cause panic among residents.
This backwards thinking is exactly the wrong way to approach this, and highlights the task we all have in moving forward on educating the public.

So, if readers and posters have thoughts about what they would like to see us doing, whether it's reporting on school closures or local cases, or contacting officials for the latest formal news, or just keeping channels open, let us know. The more we think about it beforehand, the better a job we (and everyone else) will be able to do. We're as committed to doing the best job we can now and in the future as anyone who hasn't thought about those things.

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let's pretend i'ts day 3
after the first confirmed US case.

or day 30, if you prefer. Let's assume the grid is still up.

What should we be doing?


Are we assuming our present degree of (un)readiness?
Please say No, most families and communities have prepared to feed themselves and others.

The needs will be different if it starts now.  People will need reports of cases and their approximate  locations (whether local or not), and directions about how to stay uninfected.  Also reports of local hospital conditions and where to go for treatment, if there is any help to be found.  If patients need home nursing, they'll need to be taught how to do it.  People will need both how-to and safety (how-not-to) instructions about water, cooking, heating, and human and kitchen waste disposal, in case the utilities fail.  Before the utilities fail, actually, or the messages won't get out.  Door-to-door leaflets/pamphlets with crucial information, like how to make masks, all about oral rehydration solutions, and avoiding contamination from virus and sewage.  (Will there be instructions about how to treat the dying, and how to record the deaths, and other necessities that almost nobody discusses?)

Will there be rumors to quash, or will most people be staying in and not hearing any?  

So, IMO, news and educational material will be important.  Will people have the energy or concentration to read analysis of news?  If the internet is up, then television and radio are still functioning too?  Will they be helpful or ramping up the anxiety level?  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
let's say
Are we assuming our present degree of (un)readiness?

we're not much better.


[ Parent ]
Jane, H5N1 will be all over the country in a matter of days
So, no need to know where it is.  Once is gets to your country, unless the usual mode of travel is by donkey or camel, it will be everywhere in about a week.  

CDC estimates that the virus will be worldwide (in every country) within 30 days of outbreak in any country (even remotest Tibet or darkest Africa).

So, my friends (as John McCain says), if you wait until the TSHTF to get out of dodge you are going to be one cooked goose.

(that may be a new Guineas world record of number of cliques within one short sentence!)

GW


[ Parent ]
I think we should be forming state portals for state/regional/local news.
That is, if it's day 3.  They could be separated into news that has received official comment and news that hasn't.  That's one way to help clarify the difference between rumor and verified hard news.  There's a page here with a table of state by state prepping diaries.  I was thinking of something like that to be used as a portal for each state with various links.  One link would be for stories that have received official comment, and the other for stories without official comments.  There could actually be another link in the state box for citizen/eyewitness reports and rumors.  

A link for a sort of community bulletin board might be good, too.  If say, a church, was helping to prepare meals for elderly shut-ins, that might be the best way to get the information. Official channels may become too overburdened to put out information that is easily accessible to everyone.  I know that where I live, United Way is the main source of support indicated in the state pandemic plan for my county, but that's officially.  There are other folks out there, and we may need every resource at our disposal just to keep unprepared people fed.  

At day 30, people could post when deliveries of needed supplies arrived at local stores and any limits or special procedures for purchasing them.  Or, if certain things had run out, it could prevent people from making unnecessary trips out in public.  Business owners might even choose to participate in order to keep things running smoothly.  For example, local pharmacies could post announcements regarding order deadlines for delivery on a certain date, etc.

The great thing about setting up state portals is that state officials can check out what rumors are going around in case they need to investigate one, not that every rumor will rise to that level, of course.  But, having it separated will make it easier for authorities to find the stories that fall within their areas of responsibility or expertise.

There are ways of setting up certain identities that are official and verifiable.  Those unique identities might post in specific colors so that they stand out as VIPs.  If say, fed or state agencies appointed liasons to flubogia, that would be fine with me as long as I knew who was who in the real world and that it had been verified.

It's interesting that the word embedded has developed some kind of negative connotation.  I remember watching a local journalist embedded with local troops in Iraq and appreciating the perspective.  I guess it's when the situation is reversed that people get antsy.  I don't have a problem with any official posting as a citizen (they are still citizens), but when it comes to official communications, I think thay should always be identified and verified. The thing that has to be guarded against is impersonation of officials to stir up trouble.  I've seen it happen, and it gets ugly when it's just a television personality.  I can just imagine how wrong that could go during a disaster like a pandemic.

Millions for defense, but not one cent for tribute!


[ Parent ]
the mods would have to be clear and certain who is official
and I'd think we'd be inviting them to post here.

[ Parent ]
excellent points
here is an example of the "portals" referred to

national/international:

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/tag...

local/international:

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/tag...


[ Parent ]
State portals is a good idea.
How much traffic can a flu site handle?  What will the multiplier be for our traffic by, for example, week 2?  If it crashes, will it recover when people stop trying to access it or if the site managers block it off, or does it get damaged?  

Is there a way putting a kind of storm door in front of the normal front page, with the state chart, for example, to help direct traffic?  I don't know anything about this, obviously, but might there be problems?

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
we would appeal to some industrial strength server
giants for help in oder to stay afloat. we might have to migrate elsewhere to do it.

We're considering those options, and they're real and important questions, but for the moment, assume we're up and running.


[ Parent ]
I am less concerned about state portals
and more concerned at the very beginning of dealing with just masses of people seeking information.  Imagine a pandemic is breaking out somewhere in the world, would YOU care so much whether it is your state portal that you are accessing?  Or would you be just looking for news, any news, about anywhere and everywhere in the world, on any site that is still up and running?

There may not be enough manpower/resources to separate into state or whatever portal.  It may be more efficient to just let whoever has information post at whatever site they can access.  Seriously.

Also, if you are looking for information, would you want to go check out all the different 50+ state portals?  Would you have the time?

My guess is, most people will congregate where there is news, any news.  It may be more efficient, if we are considering whether we can provide some support to the public, to not separate into different 'portals' but seek some division of labor but on the same site.  Just my preliminary thought.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
maybe not
the pandemic won't break out at once in all places simultaneously, so if Michigan and Arkansas are hit harder than NY or CT, maybe state portals do make sense.

And the news people want is inclusive of what's happening close to home.

State portals would be THE place to put school closings when you hear of them, for example. If I am a parent in CT, I want to know when CT schools close, noit GA or AL schools.


[ Parent ]
when you say state portal
are you talking about official sites?  Other sites?  Not FW?

Would each state portal be a different site?  Run by government?  Is that what you mean by 'state portal'?


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
I mean this page
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/tag...

That might be our main page, for example, or our top post. On each of the state pages would be conversations and useful links to things in that state. Many of those links would not be us... they'd be local blogs or public health state sites.

let's find out what others mean, but that's what I meant.


[ Parent ]
OK, thanks.
I just needed to be sure I know what you are talking about.  LOL


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
most of the time
I need to be sure I know what I am talking about.  ;-)

[ Parent ]
lol yeah, that too. n/t



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
That's what I meant. :-) n/t


Millions for defense, but not one cent for tribute!

[ Parent ]
Portals Smortels! This is a waste of precious time.
Hey guys.  Wake up here.  Once the balloon goes up it will be way to late to do anything.  If you have prepared and are ready to go great.  If not you better get going.  Does anyone think they are going to sit around like now posting on the Internet or help the clueless once the virus is breathing down their neck.  Come on.  This is a ridiculous notion.  

Only those who prepare before the virus goes pandemic have a reasonable chance of making it.  Many will make it with no prep but they will be just plain lucky.  A lot of these people will have been through so much torment they will envy the dead.

We need to move this conversation to the next level here folks.  Our lives as we know it will not be available to us for more than a few days after outbreak.  The stores will be sold out.  No gas.  There will be the beginnings of disorder and I do mean beginnings.  

All this nice, "what is the role of the Internet" conversation on this post is great but totally irrelevant.  There will be no Internet during the pandemic.  Forget it.  There is an Internet now thank goodness.  So, make the most of it now while you can. Learn what you need to do today to prepare and by all means get started now.

We are not going to be able to help the clueless out there after outbreak with the best state portals or the most comprehensive information because once they get the message and want to prepare it will be too late.

Obviously anyone reading this is already aware of the danger but have you prepared?  I bet most of you have not.  In this case you too will not be clueless but unless you are ready you will be out of time and out of luck.

GW


[ Parent ]
I'm sorry, again
The internet may not stay up.  Those who are not prepared may find it very hard to survive.  And you are perfectly entitled to your opinion.  But I have a certain level of moral unease as to how the word 'clueless' rolls so easily off your tongue.

Have you no compassion, my friend?

Those who are not prepared may or may not deserve your help, your compassion, even your natural inclination as a HCW to assist those in need.  In my book, they deserve a little respect.  

Those who are not prepared are mostly uninformed, or incapable for many reasons.  But they are fellow human beings like you or I.  You may have your judgments as to how well they will fare in a pandemic, and you may very well be right.  And you are of course again entitled to your opinion (ie I'm not saying you shouldn't say these things), but I do find them somewhat offensive, if you don't mind me saying so.  Others may differ; each to our own.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
SusanC- you are confusing 2 diferent things-
THere is compassion, and there is reality.

I am compassionate;  that is why I constantly harangue all my friends, family and neighbors to prepare.  That is why I have set aside some preps for those I know cannot prepare. That is why I spend time educating the less knowledgeable people around me about the threat.

But when TSHTF, I will be realistic.  Those who failed to heed my warnings will get short shrift, and GW is right, I will be WAY too busy making last minute preparations to spend any time on the 'net in the early days, and my assessment is that there won't BE any 'net after a week or so.  2 weeks into a pandemic I may have time to spend on helping those who need it, but I don't think many of those folks will have a computer.

This is why I suggested lots of pre-written lists and mirror sites so that the clueless have some information while we are all busy battening down the hatches.  

GW is compassionate, too-  he has risked professional ridicule to publish very useful information on coping with a pandemic and to make it available online for free!  The fact that he is insisting, even more emphatically than I, that we need to be realistic in our plans and assumptions, does not make him any less compassionate.

If I were on the Titanic as a deck officer, I would be compassionate and fill my lifeboat with women and children.  I would be realistic and get the hell away from the sinking liner once my boat was lowered.  Then I would have rowed back to collect as many of the remaining passengers as I realistically could.  BUT I WOULD NOT SINK MY LIFEBOAT BECAUSE THERE WERE SOME I COULD NOT HELP!

The brutal facts are:
-those who are not prepared at the start of a severe pandemic are going to be in a whole new dimension of trouble.  
- Many of those people will die.  Some quickly, from infection or existing conditions; many slowly, of starvation.
-It will haunt all of the survivors, and change us in ways impossible to predict.
You cannot force people to become selfreliant, and that means that we will see evolution in action.  Nature is not nice when it winnows the gene and meme pool;  natural selection is nasty.

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"


[ Parent ]
no I'm not confusing them at all lol
They are not mutually exclusive, nor are either of them binary ie Yes/No issues.  There are different shades of both, for each one of us.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
but my remark to Grattan
was part of a conversation that got scattered all over this thread.  ;-)  Over various comments, I believe we both came to some understanding and acceptance of each other's thoughts and positions.  Which is exactly as it should be.  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
also this ;-)
I will be WAY too busy making last minute preparations to spend any time on the 'net in the early days,

I can't say what I will be doing but I hope to be online as much as I can and for as long as I can, as long as there is value in what I'm doing.  And that's just speaking for myself.  Everyone will have different ideas and priorities, and rightly so.

More thoughts here http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
waste of precious time
Getting information is NEVER as waste of time.

Over the last 3 years I have prepared myself, family, friends, and community.  But everything we have done may be WRONG.  We do not know what is going to happen.  We can only research history, judge what work before, and follow those examples.

I know I will be doing a little last minute shopping. I will get items like gasoline, water, meds, etc.  But you can shop just so long,  during the day and have just so much money.  

What else can we do? Search for information.  I for one do not trust what comes out of the main line media.  I do trust a few people who I have had discussions about Flu Pandemics, and their opinions count.  So I for one will be here on the Internet, for as long as it last.  A minimum of 6 hours a day or until I have something that needs my attention.

I'm not a chicken who has had it's head cut off.  I'm not going to run around in circles dancing either.  :)

RICH-FL

  No warning - no way to fight - no way to win!  
We need help in our local communities to survive. Remember that quote:    "...No man is an island..."


[ Parent ]
and btw...
This is not a "decision to be made today"... this is "introduce the topic, let's think about it".

[ Parent ]
what would I want to know
People will want succinct, accurate information. No "bloviating". People will want to know that they can trust the source of information and they will resent having to choose whether they like the source or not, that is overwhelming sometimes.

(If I was to blog during this time, I would make many of my previous posts "private" - different times call for different communication. Rather than "exhort" I would be informative. People do not want to have to deal with personalities when they are dealing with their own stuff - I am not sure that I can successfully do this so I would probably not be posting :blush:)

Who, what, where, when, why, and how.

at Days 3 - 10 People will want to know what it is, where it is, what are the presenting signs and symptoms, how the hospitals and health care workers are handling the surge, what they can do at home to assist their family members if they become ill, they will want to know how to avoid becoming ill. If you don't KNOW it, don't report it.

[my 2c.-Telling people to prepare, at this point, would be counterproductive since it would bring people to gathering spots spreading illness.]

at Days 10 - 20 People will still want to know where the virus is in the US but more specifically what is happening in their own community, they will also need information about the worse cases and what to do for them. People may want to know which age groups seem to be the most effected. People will want to know how to treat this at home since surge may have closed some facilities. They will want to know where they can go and who they can ask for assistance.

at Day 20 - 30 People will be very afraid because they are not prepared in their homes, they will want to know what is happening elsewhere but their focus will be largely local. They will want to know when relief will come from any source. They will still want to know how to avoid becoming ill but they will want to know when the illness will end. They will want to know how to cope with the death of a loved one. They will want to understand what they are experiencing psychologically.

Day 30 on - People will be thinking where to get the basics. People will be grieving and will want psych/soc. support so they will need to know where to receive assistance. They will want to know statistical information but details may be overwhelming when they are facing their own grief. They will want to hear stories of hope and courage, they will need to be uplifted in the darkest time. They will need to be reassured that this will end and there is light at the end of the tunnel.

They will need to know that they may experience this cycle several times.

They will need to know what assistance their community will need. They will need to know how to come together to rebuild and restore before the next time. They will need to know that community works even and especially during a national crisis which has become very local.  

Pray for all people and rulers
1Timothy 2:1-4

(Extending the culture of life.)

http://preparedcitizens.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
"If you don't KNOW it, don't report it."
Maybe.

But it's also true that 20 fuzzy spots may compose a sharp-clear, not-at-all-fuzzy circle.

I think one of the things we could do now is find/develop a code for our own degree of certainty.  As in:
- I've seen it with my own eyes, and done the gold-standard tests myself.
- I've seen people with compatible symptoms.
- I've heard from a trusted source absenteesm is "high".
- ... (examples of other degrees of certainty or lack of it)

Maybe even "tags" as "MOE" (with my own eyes).  "MOE: 10 healthy workers at 8 am, 2 developed fever in 2 hours, 1 was taken to hospital.  Unconfirmed: they say he looked very ill after 8 hours."

I think it's good to somehow develop a "language (or meta-language, I don't know) of objectivity".  This will be useful for several reasons:
- it gives more useful information.
- informers can focus on what they know and don't know.
- readers can learn to differenciate fear from facts.  (Sometimes fear is valid.  But sometimes it will not.)
- computers can sort through those "tags" (MOE, unconfirmed, etc) and make some statistical sense out of it, maybe.  Data-mining anyone?
- Or simply allow a forum-like place to select comments with certain tags only, just like http://slashdot.org selects posts according to the "karma" of the posters.  As in "select pregnant + MOE".

In short, it may be educational for all, and potentially useful.  If done in advance.

And of course could be used in other disasters to de-bug the software and the method.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
There are not going to
be a lot of objective, relieable, facts. Not in the sense that people think of them in non-emergency times.  Surveillance, for example, is a primary task of PH but it will be nearly impossible, right from the start, for them to get accurage surveillance figures.  There will be shortages in test kits, personnel, people won't be tested - they'll just be treated. They'll loose track of those numbers just as quickly.  What will become important to the public will be the relative numbers, the relative situation.  Is it worse there than it was yesterday?  Is it better here than there?  Beyond that, everyone will be taxed and lots of the data will conflict.  

People are going to want two things:

1.  Very local information re. themselves (where to get that vax)

2.  An interpretation of how things are going overall, where they're headed (detail at this level will overwhelm).  


[ Parent ]
as to that
1. we might be able to supply that, though we'll have to be careful about rumor vs speculation vs observation vs fact.

2. that's where we AND officials (local and national) get to weigh in. Media calls it 'context' but we are good at that and so are others.


[ Parent ]
and facts and speculation etc are as trustable as the person saying it
I mean, trust doesn't exist in a vaccum: I trust somebody (or, in some cases, some body), and if they say "fact" or "opinion" (or all the other colors) I label that piece of information as "backed by that entity, and tagged as so-and-so".

I would like facts and opinions labeled as such, that's all.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
You are right,
Lugon, and credibility will be the first casualty for anyone who says "fact" and gets it wrong.  The bigger the entity which is in error, the harder they will fall.  

If information "backed by" a very important entity such as CDC is proven wrong, if they misstate or minimize the situation, people will turn quickly from them and seek information elsewhere.  That kind of thing will be hard to recover from for any entity that has official "ABC" status of any kind.  

But they likely know that, which is going to make them very loathe to state much as "certain fact," or maybe to even state much at all.  There could be quite a lot of silence from them that the public will want filled (and the public knows where to find that, and how to go looking for it).  

Mistakes of "fact" will also be resented by the public if they come from other entities, but not at all the degree to which "ABC" entities will suffer loss of confidence from similar errors (whether great or small).  

I expect a lot more ink to be spilled by non-official entities than the official ones, during pandemic outbreak simply because of this, and the nervousness the potential to make mistakes will engender in the "official" spokespeople.    


[ Parent ]
I believe nowadays...
But they likely know that, which is going to make them very loathe to state much as "certain fact," or maybe to even state much at all.

...they call it "spin"!


[ Parent ]
yes, and labeling statements will help
Of course, I think we humans tend to treat analog signals in a binary way, and more so when we're under stress.

In other words, if I'm scared, I will convert any grey statement (there might be a fire breaking out near your place) into either a white (I should do nothing at all) or a black one (I should run like mad right now).

If that's really the case, then it would help if we use labels purposefully and obviously, just like big flashing traffic-lights.

AND then talk about specific actions.

Example (let me see if I get the colors right):

NOT SURE: There might be a fire breaking out near your place.
SUGGESTED ACTION: Watch out, make up your own mind.

At this stage, I'm personally just playing around (obviously), but this kind of approach to day-to-day communication may have some value.  It'll be "risk communication", "situational awareness" or whatever it needs to be, but under lots of stress and with lots of noise.

In this area, hotline operators may have a lot to say, in combination or simply better than Sandman et al.

In fact, I seem to recall a study done on how acurately messages travel in a hotline operators' room.  Messy, but they get things done so they would know.

Trust is important, and there's the technicalities of communication.  Both matter, I would say.  ("Darling, I know you love me, but you need to learn to dance without stepping on my toes every time.")

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
i guess what i'm trying to say is
We are all learning to be better hotline-room communicators.  We'll see stuff, report about stuff, ask for help, offer whatever help there can be offered ... in real time and without much time to learn.

And massively.  Millions of us.

So I guess if we have models to follow (ways to talk to each other, ways that work), then maybe we'll use that too.

Yes, we'll use our instinct, but the web is quite new.

:-?

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
That hotline analogy
is a good one, lugon.  That might be interesting to pursue.  

[ Parent ]
I think that's why
Good point Pixie, about officials not wanting to get it wrong.

I think that's why the higher the official, the more conservative language they use, especially with things like reporting test results, which do have some margin of error.

For example, they may say things like "initial analysis suggests" that a patient has a certain illness, rather than "tests show".  While some people might call that "leaving wiggle room" I can also see it as a legitimate desire to be cautious.

They do need to be more conservative than other sources, to maintain their credibility.  

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.


[ Parent ]
do we need to be any less cautious?
that's part oif what I'm trying to get at with this whole post. We want to be accurate and credible, but we do that by clearly labeling rumor vs fact vs why we do not know (which I think we do pretty well).

we are not officials so we have much less problem saying "I don't know" when we don't, something they have to practice more (see Toronto suspect couple, where absolutes were presented rather than cautious language in a foolish attempt to contain panic that dod not exist).

still, ask anyone whether the next pandemic will be a high cfr or not, and there's more certainty out there than is deserved, just as an example.


[ Parent ]
that's the dilemma isn't it?
I don't have a good answer to that except that we will try our best.  The current 'culture' that we have appears to work quite well, despite lack of consensus on various issues.  My concern is while seasoned flubies are able to detect the nuances and may be able to form their own opinions despite lack of consensus, new especially panicking people trying to find information in a hurry may be particularly susceptible to any uncertainty or conflicting information or even opinions.

Again, I emphasize that I don't have a good answer except to try our best, but I do want to raise this cos it IS an item of concern and some dilemma as far as I can tell.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
ok, i got the "we" wrong
Many people will use the 'net:
- We "old hands" at disecting truth, opinion and creative ideas.  Fast typists.  Full of data, opinions and, shall we say, "advanced concerns".  A minority if there was one.
- Those officials who have yet to learn to say "I don't know".
- Millions of newcomers who will blog and blog and blog, learning as they go.  Some of them will be old-hand bloggers in their own domains, with a readership, and will learn as they go along.

I was wondering if we old-hand-flubies might sort of set some kind of informal standard, a way of tagging things more or less explicitly, so that those newcomers (players in very different fields, or non-players at all) will grasp the tricks of the trade as fast as possible.

Not sure if this needs to be done, or how.  Just exploring a bit.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
All these people will be dead at day 45
Please try and grasp what we are up against here.  I agree with what you propose people will want to know in your time-line although I might accelerate it a bit.

The problem is that even if we could ensure that each and every household in every country worldwide were provided with this information at outbreak it will be way to late for more than a tiny fraction to prepare even a little for what is coming.

This is not going to be a Boy Scout Jamboree.  The whole world is going to come crashing down on our heads.  These will be terrible times the likes of which have never ever been experienced by mankind in history.  

The governments everywhere will lie about this right to the end.  The president will be dead of flu and they will be telling us he is in an "undisclosed location".  The governments are more afraid of civil disorder and loss of control than ANYTHING ELSE.  They will not be letting anyone in the media know the truth and certainly will not be sharing it with us.  They will reassure us to the bitter end that "all is under control" and "the end of this crisis is at hand".  

The DHS has even designated specific spokesman to give out the propaganda and control what information is released and what is not.  

There will be no time to bring the clueless up to speed fast enough to do any good.  

Instead of wasting time thinking about this, get yourself and family prepared.  See if you can recruit your friends to get ready.  Figure out what you need to survive and where you are going to be during to pandemic.  Where ever it is, think about being safe.  Will it be safe and secure?  You will need to ready for the worst case not the best case.  This means being thoroughly prepared not just sort of.  Now is the time to get around to it, not later.

Now, do you want to hear what I really think?

:~>

GW


[ Parent ]
We may not agree on everything, BUT
there is much there is consensus on, no?

I like the idea of teaching PH and hospitals how to blog;  I think most everyone likes that.

Most everyone likes the idea of disseminating information ahead of time so that whatever happens we have better ability to handle the rush of newbies at the start of a pandemic.

Are there other consensus ideas for using the internet?

Build on consensus, Dem and SusanC, that's my suggestion.

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"


[ Parent ]
build on consensus: teach PH and hospitals to blog
Regarding the "build on consensus" bit, I'll adventure a guess: Dem and SusanC will bounce the suggestion to the rest of the world.  LOL  Ok, seriously now, maybe it's a matter of starting a diary or two.

Regarding the specific idea: Yes, teaching PH and hospitals to blog does look like a good one, so let me have a go at exploring it in several directions:

+ They will have relevant information.
+ Sharing that information appropriately will keep or improve trust, and trust will be a factor in saving lives.

- I don't know that it's possible to "teach blogging".  They'll have to be willing to make mistakes at first, or maybe just learn from the mistakes of others (but that doesn't work so well).
- Learning to swim as the boat sinks is not a good idea.

~ Are some of them doing it already?  Do their "news" pages count as blogging?  Would signing up their "entries" be a good first step?  What does "blogging from PH and hospitals" look like?
~ Also, what ways are there to speed their learning up?

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
I disagree! (-:
Well, I agree with preparations and disemmination of information ahead of time... and then some.

But I want to ask a question.   Why are people anticipating an influx of newbies at the start (acelleration phase?) of a pandemic?

An influx of newbies specifically to the flu discussion forums, I mean, which I understand is what we are talking about?

As pandemic becomes more real, as it is no longer "not if but when" as it is "not when -- but soon, right now..." of course people will start paying attention and they will have LOTS of questions.

But that is exactly when the mainstream press will start coving the issue, in great detail, right?

People WILL use the internet to access news, but if the news (and advice) is being covered in the daily papers, on the radios and on the news on TV... and ALL those places have websites of course -- I think the vast majority of the general public will go THERE for information.

Few people will go to discussion groups, except of course there own, where they know people.  They will want to know what their friends think.



GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.


[ Parent ]
case in point...
I specifically remember a group of moms at playgroup once, several years ago, where the conversation started out, "So, are we worried about West Nile Virus"?  (-;

People will talk to each other for information first, and they will email their own listservs and discussion groups to find out what those friends and that community thinks about what is going on.  

Some of THOSE people might be plugged in to the flu discussion forums of course, and they WILL be an important source of information and explanation, I think... but only insofar as they can link to recognized, credible sources of information and authority.   That has become the standard, at least on groups I am in.   You can say anything you want, but if you don't back it up with a link to something "official" people pretty much ignore it.   (Believe it or not!)   I think people have gotten pretty jaded with the amount of information that is out there.

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.


[ Parent ]
well I disagree LOL
These days the internet has become the first port of call for a lot of people wanting information.  

Plus we see the number of hits and new registrations rise whenever there is some concern about outbreaks.  Like for Turkey, the Karo cluster and for Pakistan etc.

Of course a lot of people will rely on MSM, but many will go online to search for credible information.  I have a feeling that even when MSM tries to play catch-up, their information will be rather limited and not as nuanced as the flu sites will be.  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
yes but
you see the rise in hits with new outbreaks because it isn't being covered in depth by mainstream media.   The news is being touched on, and people want to know more, but they can't find it in traditional places, is my guess.

Once a pandemic really, truly looks like it is starting, I do believe the papers and TV news channels will start having detailed websites for "latest news in your area".  True, I don't think it will be as detailed as what you will find on specialty sites.   And probably journalists will start going TO the specialty sites for information and analysis!

I can see MORE people coming to the discussion forums, but I just don't see an overwhelming amount, given that there WILL be news in he papers, on TV, on their listservs, and TONS on the web as well.   Local TV news stations all have websites.  Local papers all have websites.   They will have info and they will link to "official sources of info".   They will link to local health departments and to state health departments.

There will be a lot of info available and I think it will satisfy a great number of people.   It may not be nuanced or in detail, but honestly, I don't think a majority of people really go out of their way to look for nuance and detail.   They want to click and see "Oh -- this is what I need to do" and they are pretty satisfied with that information.

I don't have a crystal ball, though, it is just my opinion.   I DO agree there will be more people coming here and to other forums for info... I just don't think they'll be so much "newbies" as much as people who were aware of the issue, went away for a while, and are coming back -- or who have a professional involvement in pandemic flu issues, want or need more discussion and detail.


GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.


[ Parent ]
there may be different scales, and i personally don't know
I look at it this way: we "registered" flubies are, what, 10 thousand people?  As soon as a pandemic starts, maybe 100 million people (internet enabled people) will start paying attention.  If one in 10 thousand "register", that would be 10 thousand new people.

There will be a number of new users, I think.  Not with lots of time in their hands, so it will level out.

I'm thinking more about the "qualitative" or maybe "behavioural" aspect of it: folks in other spaces will read flublogia and will notice how we say things.  Their may be an influence in style.  That influence may have an effect.  Many "maybes" amid so much noise and haste, but hey, some of that will happen (maybe).

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
one log short, lugon
we "registered" flubies are, what, 10 thousand people?

I'd say not more than a couple of thousand in all the different sites combined.  Give or take.

If I were to take your 100 million, and say 1 in 10,000 just lurk, not even register, that will give us 10,000 new visitors.  Which is what, 5 times our normal level?  Plus our normal infrequent visitors and lurkers will likely be checking for info more often than normal.

All very rough estimates of course..


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
see lugon's answer, on order of scale. lol n/t



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Only idiots and the clueless will be watching TV (no offense intended)
Once outbreak occurs, it will be too late to do anything much.  If you are prepared, you are not going to be watching TV or blogging.  If you are well informed and prepared, once outbreak has occurred you will be way to busy getting to your pandemic retreat or finishing up your last minute preps to be watching the virus eat up mankind.  If you are simply too curious and afraid you might miss the action, I have news for you.  Don't worry about missing the flu because the flu will surely not miss you.  

I read about peoples plans for SIP and NPI and think "these folks have no clue".  We will all try to avoid this bug but will fail to do so.   None of these plans are really going to work.  We will not be able to enforce social distancing or the use of NPI.  Isolation won't work voluntary of involuntary.    

The only viable option is to work local.  We have been trying to save the world on this site and others for years.  Mea culpa maxima! Yes, many of you have done a lot of good and I thank you all for the help you have given me and the things I have learned.  

But hear this, the result of all the time and effort I have devoted to this issue over the past few years has ripened.  The result is my conclusion that we are simply powerless to affect the course of this pandemic in any meaningful way.  So, lets get real about what we can do.  We can prepare ourselves.  We can prepare for our families.  We can work to get our friends interested in learning about this and try and get a few folks together that will agree to help each other during the emergency.  We can think really seriously about what the best thing for us to do is during the pandemic.  (see my plan on Dem's post about laws compelling HCWs to work during the pandemic). We can, and this is very important IMHO (thats for you Susan) decide where we are going to stay during the pandemic.  I will tell you that remaining in the city is, IMO, NOT AN OPTION.  Your survival in an urban environment is not highly likely.  At best you will be subject to death from disease, rape, torture, starvation, prostitution, kidnapping and assault.  These same outcomes are likely for all the other members of your family who remain in the city with you.  This is my view and is NOT BASED ON THE WORSE OUTCOME.  So, there you have it folks.  This is how I really feel.

The Dark Doctor

GW


[ Parent ]
I'm sorry
I know you meant no offense, but still, a milder frame may be better for communication, doc.  Not everyone is as educated as y'all are here.  Most people will be watching TV and generally looking at whatever source of information they can get.  As they have every right to be.

Thanks for your cooperation.  ;-)


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
I don't mean to offend to clueless or maybe for their own good I do?
These are life and death issues we are dealing with on this forum.  It is important that we be clear about that.  There is nothing cruel in being completely frank about that.  It has come to be my view that we have nothing to gain be denying the facts as we believe them to be in an attempt to avoid frightening those who have yet to come to terms with the terrors we will shortly all be confronting.  Those that have no clue, whom I have artlessly referred to herein as the clueless are THE WALKING DEAD.  Why? It is because they have very little chance of surviving the pandemic and most especially the predictable social and economic consequences that will stem from it.  

Do we do those who are uninformed a kindness by feeding them the same pabulum our governments have for the past few years?  I say no.  By sparing them the truth as we see it, are we helping them to get ready? Again, I say no.  In fact I say that by pulling our punches in order not to offend those ignorant of the great danger confronting us we are doing them the most grievous harm.

We sit in our ivory tower of pandemic knowledge and lord over the public who are going their merry way as sheep to the pandemic slaughterhouse.  With what we know or think is probable or just likely, is this a just and good way to serve our brothers and sisters?  Once more, the answer is not just no but absolutely no.  

So, the time to be sweet and gentle is over.  The time to be honest and straight forward has arrived.  The truth is unknown and at present unknowable regarding the severity of the coming pandemic, this I will grant you.  This is not what we need to be debating here.  We all think the pandemic is coming and will be bad or none of us would be fool enough to spend so much of our precious time devoted to this issue.  

If the pandemic is mild then we can all get on our hands and knees and thank God for the reprieve.  I for one do not see it that way and I am pretty confident that most of you who have been around this and the other flu sites think it will be easy either or you would not be reading this now.

Those schooled in pandemic science and survival have an ethical and moral duty to do what we can for those who are clueless.  It is not an insult to call them clueless, unwashed, ignorant or if you prefer "pandemic challenged".  It is simply a fact.  We know it is true that the vast majority of humanity is in this state.  Many will die because they will not be prepared to cope with the emergency when it comes.  This is sad but true and we all know it.  

The time has come to stop quibbling over CFR and such.  We all think the statistics will be bad no matter how much we hope they will not be.  These discussions were needed in the past, at least for me they were.  Like many of you, I have come to my own conclusions about the severity of the pandemic and think that it will be REALLY REALLY BAD.  So lets drop the academic talk.    The endless debate simply feeds the complacent and provides support for procrastination and delay.

We need to move ahead and simply make it clear that while we don't know how bad it will be we do think it will be really awful when it comes.  We don't know when that will be but in our hearts we think it will happen and it could be pretty soon.  This will serve those who are new to these issues better than the longwinded debates that have very little relevance to survival during the coming pandemic.  The issues of greatest import are will you have food, safe shelter, some idea about caring for family members sick with flu.  This is what we need to be communicating as this is what will save lives. This is why I supported a common approach last year and getpandemicready,org now as the most logical way to help the greatest number of people today.

The finer points of our past millions of words on these pages have been seminal in my understanding of this issue and for all of you who have helped shape my views over the years, you have my gratitude and everlasting appreciation.  Now though we need to move on and become more realistic in our approach to informing the public on the critical issues they will need to survive.  The coming pandemic will be about survival and nothing else.  No one will care about what the CAR is in this city or that.  They won't care about martial law being declared or the shooting of rioters in Detroit.  They will be concerned about where their next meal will be coming from and if they can find some clean water.  

So, these are my concerns and this is why I think we need to be a lot more direct about this issue and while not being rude or artless as I have a wont to be, to do our best to boil it down to the basics in a way that can be understood at the lowest common denominator.  What is that?  The fact that what we face is a calamity of the highest order where there is more than just a possibility that at least one member of your immediate family will die, that you will loose all your material possessions, that you are likely to become homeless for many months, you will be hungry for days at a time, and life as you know it now will be lost forever even after the return of law and order.

If you believe as I do that a pandemic is likely and could be severe then it is my view that you have a responsibility to be honest about it.  This is doubly true for HCWs like me and others who blog here regularly.

So, pardon my frankness and if I have offended someone reading this or any of my posts, well I am sorry but it is for your own good.  Sometimes being insulted about being ignorant and frightened by those who have become informed about this threat is a very tiny price to pay for the benefit of finally getting it and becoming informed and prepared to survive.  Hate me and my words all you like, just listen and weigh them.  That is all I ask. Know that they come from the heart of one who has struggled with this issue and means you no malice.  

The Dark Doctor



[ Parent ]
frankness is not a problem
honesty and frankness are to be welcomed IMO.  In that sense, I have no objection to the word 'clueless' at all, if all you mean is 'those who have no clue', in your judgment.  ;-)

I do however have a separate comment.  Yes, I honor your frankness, but please also know that this is based on your own assessment and your own opinion.  There is by no means agreement of how severe a pandemic will be or how certain it will be caused by one virus or another.

The issues of greatest import are will you have food, safe shelter, some idea about caring for family members sick with flu.  

Yes, I absolutely agree with you on that.  And while I agree that it is absolutely essential that we "inform the public on the critical issues that they need to survive" (why else do you think I'm doing what I'm doing?), I cannot subscribe to the certainty that you exhibit about

the longwinded debates that have very little relevance to survival during the coming pandemic.

Please also know that when you talk about being honest about something, you are only referring to being honest about your own judgment, and not about absolute truths or facts.  For example, that H5N1 has killed x number of people is a fact.  That H5N1 will cause the next pandemic, or that the next pandemic will mean whatever scenario you are describing, is an opinion, an assessment, and a speculation, for which honesty only means honesty in sharing your judgment, not honesty of fact.

In other words, those who may or may not believe in the scenarios that you describe, or, in my case, believe there is a range of scenarios including yours, are not necessarily less honest when they speak of their assessments or their thoughts on how best to prepare.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
More to the point
Yes, yes, and yes.

Susan you make my point exactly.  

The time for a range of estimates as such really needs to be over.  We don;t need to know these things really and of course won't know them until after the pandemic and even then, if 1918 is any guide know them for many years after its conclusion (20,000,000 deaths initially vs 100,000,000 estimated lately).

My concern about the broad range of possible statistics is that they are a cause for procrastination and doubt about the need to prepare for the pandemic.

While you are absolutely correct from a scientific point of view regarding the wide range of possible events, their endless debate and variety of not bad, bad, worse, and really bad outcomes simply obscures the issue for those newbies and non-medical folks who read them.  These are academic exercises or games we play in the ivory tower that are, in my opinion, now inappropriate for the situation we face today.  These types of discussions while fun for us obscure the issue for the uninitiated.  

For instance, consider this as a problem in clinical medicine.  Lets suppose our imaginary patient represents the human population and we are evaluating her routinely when low and behold we discover some risk factors for a serious but preventable life-threatening condition.  While we can not actually quantify the precise risk for her we know that there is risk.  At what point do we suggest an intervention?  Lets say the risk is 10% for the life threatening event, should we intervene?  What about 40%?  What about 60%.  Obviously the higher the likelihood of an event occurring the more there is to be gained from interviewing.  But where is your trigger threshold for making the call?  

Now apply this same logic to the current situation with BF.  We know that there will be another pandemic (100% certainty) just not when or how bad.  We know that a pandemic is somewhat overdue (average time between events is about 30 years with the range of 2 to 50 years).  We have a candidate virus that infects humans and is already capable of limited H2H (when I started my work on this the virus was not capable of H2H at all. Now not only does H2H happen regularly small clusters are now common).  The virus is adapting to mammals and humans before our epidemiologic eyes and as it does is moving closer and closer to pandemic status.  Finally, the pre-pandemic virus that has infected humans has a very high CFR.  

Given these facts that I think all can agree upon and returning to the above patient analogy, I would be very concerned that my patient is at an unacceptably high risk for a life threatening event.  My concern would be high enough to recommend an intervention even one with a high cost and some risk to the patient from side effects of the intervention.  This recommendation is based upon my assessment of the risk reward ratio of not intervening vs intervening.  Of course we can hope that if she has an event she will be lucky and have a less than fatal outcome but this hope should not guide our recommendation.  The key is to consider and protect the patient from the worst outcome, a fatal of crippling event.  A clinician that did not recommend intervention under these circumstances and rather preferred to to hope for the best and plan for the best is not in our patient's interest and violates our fiduciary responsibility to our patient.  

We owe it to our patient to tell her that we think she is a risk for a bad outcome that in all honesty we are unable to clearly predict with certainty.  Despite our uncertainty, we think that her risk is sufficient to warrant an aggressive intervention give the potential dire consequences of the event occurring.  Then we explain the options to the patient, tell her which one we think is best, and let her make the decision on which one to follow.  One option would be for her to do nothing.  This is fine as long as she is informed as well as she can be and makes this choice.  I am fine with this.  

What we are doing debating these academic issues the way we do is leading those unfamiliar with this type of discussion to doubt the need to engage in the intervention.  They think "well if the experts can't agree about this why should I care".  What they are unaware of is that the experts almost never agree about these things.  This is understandable to us but to those on the outside looking in it causes them to throw up their hands and ignore it.

So, this is why we need to move away from this type of talk and rather move to a more concrete type of discussion.  We need to take a stand.  Our reputations are not at stake here.  Our academic promotion is not at risk.  We are just folks on a web site with special knowledge and skills.  Lets not play some cagy game about the statistics.  What we need to do, IMO, is tell it like we see it not hedge our bets.  Hedging is what the USG and others are doing and is one of the reasons the public is so clueless or confused.

I think we owe it to the public to state what we think and why.  Give them our best guess knowing that we could be wrong.  It is our duty as HCWs to do this and if not us, who will?

GW


[ Parent ]
I think you misunderstand
You are still working under the assumption that all this 'endless talk' is unproductive and not likely to lead to certain solutions that may save some lives.  You assume that such talk is the cause of procrastination.  Let me suggest that that thought is erroneous; I can't speak for others but I have never been as energized for action as when I am trying to find new and additional solutions for these issues.  Those who procrastinate may appear to be engaging in apparently similar types of discussion, but I assure you all you need to do is to pause and look more closely (and think more carefully), and you will discover the difference between those who procrastinate and use words as excuses for procrastination, and those who are making thoughtful determinations in order to take action.  

Dem is a case in point.  He is actually going to take part in an exercise shortly that will test a lot of the issues we discuss here.  I believe it is helpful and healthy for us to give input which hopefully will assist his exercises to be taken to higher levels of effectiveness.  This is a work in progress, happening right here right now on this thread (except when we get side-tracked with explanations like this, which I agree is entirely necessary), and not procrastination and excuse for inaction.

You appear also to assume that those of us conducting such discussions are not taking other steps to warn others of dire scenarios like the ones you are describing.

I can't speak for others, but if those are your assumptions, they are both wrong in my case.  I only engage in discussions where I DO see some usefulness will come out of it, AND these dicsussions are NOT conducting to the exclusion of telling others about dire scenarios or whatever else you are suggesting.

At any given time on any given day, you are only able to observe any person (like myself) doing one thing.  It doesn't mean that they are ignoring anything else.  It only means that for the purpose of this discussion we are trying to find a few specific methods in the event that such specific situations arise.

Can you deny that for example when outbreaks in Turkey or Indo or Pakistan looked distinctly worrying, there were many flubies and others who were concerned?  Would you not say that at such a time, it would be better (again only speaking for myself) for me to be actively seeking to find some way to help those who are online, while someone else like you might be doing other things?

Would it be useful if we ALL do the same thing, ie come to your conclusion and therefore all abandon the forum at the same time (I'm exaggerating as you can tell lol) just as a pandemic is breaking out?  Would that make life better for anyone?

Sure I may not be able to save any lives that way; but we don't know that.  We have no way of telling ahead of time when a timely piece of information or instruction may save a life.

In addition, when you talk about your interventions, you are only talking about ONE approach among many, and one that can only be delivered in specific ways.  Sure let's use that approach, but to the extent that there are no foolproof approaches on this planet, especially not against a severe pandemic, I would suggest the best approach is to let as many different people use different means, or rather, put out as many different ideas as possible (ie create a lengthy 'menu' of possible interventions) so that those on the ground can choose whatever is most appropriate or whatever resources will allow.

In short, I'm for inclusiveness.  How about you? ;-)


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the thoughtful response
I confess to being upset by the events of last year and to making a several snide remarks last night some of which were directed at you personally.  Your antenna correctly received them as such.  Please accept my apology.  I promise that from now on I will never make a comment on this forum about you personally.  This does not mean that I will not invoke your name in a comment or response I make only that from this point forth it will not be a personal one.  You have my word on this.  So, please keep this in mind.  You may use me in the same way if you wish.  This is not personal, simply a strategy to make our case.  

So in the future, when I oppose your position of criticize your view, please consider that this is not a criticism of you personally.  It only applies to your view.  Susan, while sometimes I make disagree with your position on the forum, the purpose may be to make some related point or the other.  For instance, of course I agree with you about the weaknesses of projections.  That view is absolutely correct and we both know it.  But in the post above, I explained as clearly as I can why we should take a more concrete approach to this.  These comments were not meant to pick on you personally, rather I was using you as a straw man to make my point.  

I see the forum as an information exchange, a venue for debate, a place to express one's views and opinions.  It is an educational vehicle and also a community of people with some common interests and many differences. A lively discussing keeps the forum interesting and increases its readership.  This is a goal we share.  This is no place for personal attacks or conflicts and I really appreciate the Mods especially you and Dem for standing up for me last year when I was subject to them.  

Our back and forth can be a useful and interesting way to set the parameters of the discussion even when they are only our opinions.  What is interesting though is the notion that the truth, if there is such a thing, may well lay within these parameters.   We need to keep it fun and remember that we respect each other and all those who post and visit here.  

There is no reason anyone should be afraid to say what they think on this forum as long as they remain more or less within the rules that the Mods established and enforce.  This does not mean that our members should not test the envelope from time to time and when they do, you have a duty to remind them of their transgression.  This is fine with me and I accept your role in this and support it.  I am grateful for it in fact.  

Anyway, I am hoping that this post helps you and anyone else that comes upon it buried here within the lengthy diary to understand where I am coming from better and also what the rules of engagement I will be following from hence forth.  

Best regards,

GW


[ Parent ]
eh, my turn to apologize
if I wasn't writing clearly.  No, I understand you are not writing about me personally.  I was only trying to express a point about those who express an interest in discussing this topic not necessarily procrastinating etc.  Since I really can't speak for anyone else I had to use myself as an example just to expain.  I also used Dem as an example cos I know where he is coming from.

So, no it wasn't personal and I did understand that part.  ;-)


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
OK, thats good
Lets work with this understanding for this point forward.  If I go over the line, I can count on you letting me know about it but I feel pretty comfortable now that we have worked this out to the point where we can debate in the Oxford since rather than argue in the American sense.

Yankees just don't get the rules of debating!  We think that if two people express a different opinion about something that they are arguing in the pejorative sense.  This is a shame.  If we taught Oxford debating here then I think we would be able to have much more enlightening discussions than presently in the political world as well as around the dinner table.  Getting personal would never ever be allowed at Oxford and anyone who did would loose all credibility from that point on.  Americans just don't understand that resorting to personal attacks during a discussion is simply an admission of how weak their debate argument is and actually an admission that they have failed to make their case.

Best regards,

GW


[ Parent ]
well that's why we have conversations ;-) n/t



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
In America it's called tact........
You can do a search on debating and find all kinds of rules, but in general....tact serves the same purpose pretty much anywhere in the states.   or in more simple terms, the fea of getting your nose broke will keep you in line most of the time.     :)  

[ Parent ]
it's the same everywhere
really not that different.  You can have your nose broke or have a good conversation wherever you go.  ;-)


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
why is that for me?
the urban bit?  Sorry, I'm getting more and more confused.  lol


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
A small LOL
I was referring to the IMHO comment.  Alas, Susan as is well known I am anything but humble.  My wife reminds of this fault on a regular basis.  

GW


[ Parent ]
oh I see ;-)
Well, you share your thoughts freely.  That, the generosity, is far more important than modesty, my friend.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
you are cenrtinly right about most of them
but some will find their way here.

[ Parent ]
Dem, From what I have seen...
Many of the original participants (of all the flu boards) have become lay-experts in their own right.  They bring MANY talents to both blogging and the ability to sort through "stuff".  Others read - only, but may have improtant community ties with hospitals, pandemic planning, and or state or federal agencies.  This would probably represent a larger population of lay-experts.

One example of using blogs in the event of a pandemic, is to set up blogs, based on a format such as this one (easy to use)... with a couple of moderators, (like us) to "teach and guide the public.  This might be able to be coordinated with the local media... They can post the stories... the public can express their fears and concerns, the moderators can guide and teach the people how to sort through the stories for the truth... then you develop more lay -experts, and help those people through their adjustment reaction peroid.  Then would be able to help other people, either by physical or virtual support or by an influx of suggesstions.

Additionally, the "experts' can direct those people who have questions to the reliable sources that they might need in order to see that things have been studied, that plans have been made, and that this was not a "forgotten" issue... just not highly publicised.

They can be one communication link between what is going on in their area of expertise, i.e. hospital, public health, school system, etc.  and keep the public UTD on what is really going on.  This may also keep the media on their toes about truth in the media.  The government wants transparency in everything else we do in health care... it would be a big mistake for them to not promote transparency about what is going on at the local level and make formal recommendations on how to accomplish this at the local level.... (donating the platform for a discussion board would help us small counties, for example)

Just my thoughts.....  BTW... Hospitals in Florida should have already submitted  the name of liasions between the state and the hospital...

I am a liasion for my hospital.  It is called organized networking, right?

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have. ~ Margaret Mead


yes
excellent points.

We may have to teach hospitals how to blog. ;-)

Local health officials would do well to work with local media of all sorts now and develop those relationships, including the online folks.

And yeah, the veterans and graduates of the boards know an awful lot of useful information, and aleaady had thair pre-adjustment reaction. For those who are willing (not all will be), they'd be an awesome resource.


[ Parent ]
My Katrina experience
Hi Dem.  Your comment about local health officials working with local media brought back vivid memories of life in my hometown during and immediately following Katrina.  I cannot express just how important radio broadcasts were to those of us who were without power for many days.  Our local radio and TV "personalities" joined forces on-air and did an incredible job (many at the expense of their own families' welfare) of providing timely, crucial information (e.g., location of ice and water supplies, where generators could be purchased), dispelling rumors, relaying information to listeners about their family members who couldn't be contacted because phone service was out.

My point is this:  Radio/TV stations already do a fantastic job of keeping citizens informed via the most common forms of public communication during a crisis.  Training local broadcasters to "blog a disaster" makes sense.      


[ Parent ]
it's been done
it can be done. Also:

Hurricane Katrina

As Hurricane Katrina approached on Sunday, August 28, dozens of the newspaper's staffers who opted not to evacuate rode out the storm in the center of the building housing the newspaper, sleeping in sleeping bags and on air mattresses. Holed up in a small, sweltering back room called the "Hurricane Bunker," the newspaper staffers and staffers from affiliated web site NOLA.com posted continual updates on the internet up until the time the building was evacuated on August 30. With the presses out of commission in the rising storm, newspaper and web staffers produced a "newspaper" in electronic format.

On NOLA.com, meanwhile, tens of thousands of evacuated New Orleans and Gulf Coast residents began using the site's forums and blogs, posting pleas for help, offering aid, and directing rescuers. NOLA's nurturing of so-called citizen journalism on a massive scale was hailed by many journalism experts as a watershed, while a number of agencies credited the site with leading to life-saving rescues and reunions of scattered victims in the days and months after the storm.

After deciding to evacuate Tuesday, August 30, because of rising floodwaters and possible security threats, the newspaper and web staff set up operations in Baton Rouge, on the Louisiana State University campus. A small team of reporters and photographers volunteered to stay behind in New Orleans to report from the inside on the city's struggle, looting, and desperation. They armed themselves for security and worked out of a private residence.

The August 30, August 31, and September 1, 2005 editions were not printed, but were available as PDFs online, as was the paper's breaking news weblog. A weblog entry for August 30 written by Bruce Nolan gave a summary of the disaster:

   "Hurricane Katrina struck metropolitan New Orleans on Monday with a staggering blow, far surpassing Hurricane Betsy, the landmark disaster of an earlier generation. The storm flooded huge swaths of the city, as well as Slidell on the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain, in a process that appeared to be spreading even as night fell."[3]

After three days of online-only publication, the paper began printing again.



[ Parent ]
and thank you for that, Swann!!! n/t


[ Parent ]
The hospital and local governments don't want to hear or deal with this
Come on guys.  Been there done that.  We have all failed in our attempts to motivate these people.  We tried to get Flubologia to work as a whole to do it and failed.  

Now we are entering a severe recession.  There was no money in the best of the boom times to deal with pandemic prep.  Now, there is no money period.  No staff to set up blogs.  No interest and no time.  

GW


[ Parent ]
what happens in a pandemic?
I think FG is absolutely right, that the flu forums have a large number of well informed people who can help answer questions and provide information in a pandemic.  The question is how to do this effectively.

btw, Dem, about teaching hospitals how to blog.  Yes, that should be done if someone is interested, but since most of us have spent hours and hours every day for many months doing this, I suspect it may not be as easy for even professional people to commit as much time to learn, not the official stuff or the science (or even the science) but the 'softer' skills of prepping etc..  I suspect many will not be able to give more than the most simplistic and 'official' information, which could just as easily be available on a static site, and more importantly, may be limited by the need for officials to only address issues that are verifiable.  ie they do not have our flexibility in answering to rumors.  Ditto for any prepping related or alternative work-arounds that have been developed by flubies and discussed previously.

I'm going to assume for the purpose of this discussion, that whether or not hospitals or governments will have blogs, we will be faced with 'frontline' situation, as a pandemic is breaking out.  Let's just assume for the moment that whatever site or server is used can take the increased volume of traffic.  (I'm going to label that assumption #1, cos we can then count up how many we have to deal with!)  How much increase in volume do we anticipate?  10X?  20X?  100X?

The problem then is not just server capacity, but that if we have that much traffic, and lots of people asking questions, is there anything we should be doing differently than now to address the needs?

Right now, most of the regulars basically read everything.  In a pandemic that is breaking out, even assuming we are personally able and willing to devote as much time as possible to do this (assumption #2), I can imagine that the speed of comments and responses being uploaded will be such that it will be confusing, exhausting, and a inefficient use of our time for us to operate in our 'business-as-usual' mode.

In such scenario, is there a place for division of labor?  Do we want to ask for volunteers to dedicate to various aspects?  Should we run some drills to test how well that would work?

This is a good time to start thinking about this, IMO.  What role does each one of us want to play, if any?  What role can we play as a community, assuming resources are available?  (More assumptions here!) What resources do we need?

Most importantly, can we make a difference, to all the newly-aware possibly panicking people who are now desperately seeking information?  I believe we can.  I also believe we need to think through the ramifications and how to deal with them, if possible.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


I'm going to ask people to skip the server issue
as it is a distraction right now for the other points to address. Assume we're up, we can handle some traffic, but we need to be efficient.  No pictures. No video files.

[ Parent ]
Section 504 compliance
As part of the Rehabilitation and disability act of 1973 the web may be a bigger rescource for the blind and deaf.
Section 504 is quoted most but 503 is referenced. (Source: http://www.dol.gov/compliance/... )

 Pictures and videos take up bandwidth.

 Pictures and video do not help the blind and may not be of as much use to the deaf. Also ASL has a very different sentance structure than English. Endings like "ly" and "ing" are ommited as are words like "and", "but", "or" and "the"

 Why is reading hard for the Deaf? Most deaf folks have lost their hearing over time from jobs, rock concerts or disease - I need to find a source. They leard how to sournd words out for their meaning. People who lost their hearing before school age do not have this.

 Hearing folks try this where spelling but words are not repeated. Also those who learn English say they have trouble.

  "The dove dove into the bush"

  "The nurse wound the wound with guaze"

  "The buck does and does do too."

 Reading withou knowing the sounds is hard. It is tricky. It is not easy. It can make smart people feel stupid. Did I say it was hard?

Pronouce these:
SYZYGY -  the astronomical alignment of three planets.

SYNAESTHETE - A person for whom sense impressions occur through stimulation of a different  sense to that expected. They see light, taste sound or hear smells.

CLINQUANT  -  Glittering with gold or silver; a false and showy glitter.

FLOCCINAUCINIHILIPILIFICATION -  The action or habit of judging something to be worthless. Yes this is the word from the TV commercial.

  Typed text is not only printable, but can have a date and let people read at their own pace.

 Stepping off my soap box and away from the keyboard :o) LoL

Kobie
"I write slow for those who do not read fast"

 


[ Parent ]
OK Here is an idea....
We are planning to use local "hotlines" with nurses and / or volunteers... Calls from the community will be coming into our Emergency Operations Center (EOC).  The pphones lines will be used for the worried well or to direct needed services.  

Why can't these people also be moderators for whatever blog or question and answer format is  used. (on any downtime from calls)

Commonly asked questions can then be directed to the media to be answered on the news.

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have. ~ Margaret Mead


[ Parent ]
Top of the front page, a Read This First diary
which points to relevant pages on the Wiki-proper about how to do last minute preparations. No point in encouraging people to spend their precious last few days and hours obsessively reading news when they could be getting their kids home, buying food, thinking about how to cook without power, etc. Those of us who are already prepped are the ones who will be reasonably occupied obsessively reading the news :-) If someone has spare time - ha - they could write this in advance now, ready to go, checking that the Wiki-pages actually exist (I think they do, but haven't checked).

Then I do think local sites hosted by local people (preferably on local servers) are wise, with FW collecting links, but instructing people to bookmark their local page. The net may stay mostly up, but may fragment - i.e., FW may be still up, but may be unreachable from the UK, for example. In real need, I expect I could get a Scotland-site up in hours on my local university's server. What I, and anyone else thinking about doing this, should probably do is to download and keep safe key pages from the Wiki so that if we need to do this at a time when we can't access the real site, we can do that. Of course, if Google goes down, life as we know it ends anyway (joke).

Then for the rest, I think we should follow our noses. I don't think there's any point in trying to avoid talking about things that might panic the public - even if it would be a good thing, there's simply no way to make it happen. You could shut FW down, but that would cause its own kind of panic among the cognoscenti :-) If people are here posting, they're going to be scared, they're going to say so, if they know or suspect scary things they're going to mention them. In the usual way, the hive mind will sort out truth from fiction from rumour.


good points
top of front page/read me first to getpandemicready.org? we wrote it in advance for 'getting started'. Is there a better '...and you have a week' source?

Then the state portal page? we link to local sources/local servers?

rest is business as usual, with more requests (granted or not) for info from officials?


[ Parent ]
What do we do? What should we do?
What is our role?

Well, Fluwiki and PFI are both discussion forums.  We will discuss, I presume.  It's why we are here.

We are not journalists, as you note Dem.  We can't send people to Duluth or to Toronto or to Jakarta when a story is happening there.  We can only aggregate the news.  

And then we discuss.  

That's our purpose, I believe.  It will be our purpose then.  I think it's an extraordinarily valid purpose.  We are fortunate to have this ability, btw. Not everyone everywhere enjoys such a freedom.  Until the moment when something terrible happens that changes that (technical, legal, whatever) we carry on - we discuss.

The intrinsic value, the highest value, that these forums offer lies right there.


add "educate" to "discuss"
you're absolutely right that we need to continue to do what we do best.

This is more of a philosophical question, as the best posts at PFI and FW and the other sites share pertinent info and help each other (virtual community). So how can we maximize that? or to put it another way, what do people need? And what do they need fast? and what will they need then (as opposed to now)? can we do any of it in advance (like creating getpandemicready.org and printing it out/hosting it elsewhere)?

And what do we not do now that we would do then? Do we ask the secretary of HHS or the HHS science advisor or the President's advisor to guest blog (whoever it is at the time) for Q&A? Doesn't mean they would, but should we ask?

I'm unwilling to abandon those who have not done this in advance, even as I recognize we can't do everything for everyone. Where's the right balance and how can we help most?


[ Parent ]
Sure, by all means
ask the honchos to guest blog. The restriction there will be in the form of demands on their time.  I would expect they would not necessarily "discuss," but would instead post some statement (perhaps one also posted in other places).  They are going to be stretched.  You might ask lower level people to blog, "their representatives," but you know that those folks will not have the latitude or authority to truly interact, make definitive statements in a very fluid environment, so the most they'd be able to say very often would be, I would expect, "I'll get back to you."  And, unless they've spent a whole lot of time here and in similar places, it will take them time to get up to speed that they just won't have in a real-time interactive environment with people who are lay "experts."  

So, that leads us back to the folks here, to what they can offer, and the strength of the forum format (i.e. discussion).

I expect that diaries and topics would arise and be discussed as needed. Some patient person may wish to take the post of "traffic coordinator" to direct newcomers to the data on the Wiki itself and a diary could be devoted to that.  Otherwise, the problem with anticipating the educational needs is that we'll be facing a brand, new, situation apart from the practical coping data-oriented material already on the Wiki (water treatment, treatment of fevers, antivirals-101, etc.).  Everything else, Dem, I believe we're all going to have to just do by the seat of our pants - us and TPTB.  For that, this "discussion" forum is a gem. For moving into new and unknown territory, with rapidity, that's exactly what will be needed.  There won't be too many "right" answers, so best to have it all hashed out, to find the "best" ones.  


[ Parent ]
Too busy to discuss?
You wanna know busy... look this way Pix.

Yet this topic is so important I make time to get into it.

Tell the truth


[ Parent ]
China
Right Pixie. I bet you can't discuss bird flu in China on the Internet at least in the way we do.

Dark Doctor


[ Parent ]
I'm pretty sure you're right about that
Does anyone know of a discussion forum for bird flu in China?  Don't think so.  No, surely not.

To me, it's not what we say, but that we can and we do say what we do that is the strength of these forums.  

We can't predict what we're going to be saying, or what we're going to be facing, as pandemic emerges.  But we can vow to keep talking, up until the point where we can't. We have the First Amendment to our Constitution here in the U.S., and until something changes that and we don't (under Wilson and the first Great Influenza, it was subverted quite a bit) we should know that we have something special here, every time we participate, something so many others do not enjoy.  

So, maybe that's why I'm not so concerned that we attempt to organize or structure that talk, or that what's shared is Pulitzer prize winning. I'll be content that we simply do talk, and that we keep on talking, as long as we can. Any number of people from any number of places around the world would readily remind us just how valuable this ability we have to freely discuss is. We may not truly understand this, nor what it is like to be in their shoes, until we do loose the internet, or our freedom to speak on it.  Right now, we are very fortunate indeed.  


[ Parent ]
Yes we are
Lets hope that our freedoms will be restored after the crisis has past.  There will be a chance that they will not be for quite some time even after the emergency is over.  As I recall our politicians told us the loss of freedom we suffered as a result of the Patriot Act were only temporary.  Now the law has become permanent and the debate has moved on to whether the USG may continue to openly violate the second amendment in the interest of homeland security.  I suggest we all pull our George Orwell's book, 1984 and read it again or for the first time if that is the case.  There are many similarities between the events portrayed in that book and the present.  

Dearest Mods, I hope these comments pass the PC smell test regarding political speach.  Gee, Orwell would love the term Patriot Act as well as Political Correctness!  

Dark Doctor


[ Parent ]
two questions for clarification
1) Is the question under discussion:

"What's the Role the Internet Will Play in a Pandemic"

or "What is the role Discussion Forums will play in a Pandemic?"

because the two questions are entirely different.

and

2)

Why aren't bloggers, or people on the discussion forums who gather news on a specific subject, and analyze it, considered journalists?

Not reporters, perhaps, not out there interviewing people on the spot (although some bloggers ARE conducting interviews now, aren't they?) but a news analyst or something?

This is the new media after all.  I think old fashioned definitions may be changing.

A journalist (also called a newspaperman) is a person who practises journalism, the gathering and dissemination of information about current events, trends, issues and people.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/J...

News analysts-also called newscasters or news anchors-examine, interpret, and broadcast news received from various sources.

http://www.bls.gov/oco/ocos088...

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.

i take it to mean "the internet"
There will be:
- discussion forums = conversation spaces
- wikis = organised aggregation of information spaces
- blogs = dated entries, most recent first
- ...

We need to think in terms of what's needed.  In huge numbers.  With a number of things done now that they are not needed.

I'll give it a shot a bit later, but please keep it up!

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
so what we may need is
ways to datamine conversation spaces, and many other thingies

it's just cool that we can contact with instedd.org, in case that's useful :-)

we need to think about mirrors for wikis, fast translation of stuff, printing stuff onto newspapers, and a number of other things

gotta run now, keep it up!

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
I'd imagine there are 2 aspects
What is the role of the internet and all types of new media in general, and what is the role (if any) of flublogia.  Do we want any role?  What do we think is needed?  Do we (each one of us, not 'we' as a group, not until someone wants to 'organize' anything) want to become part of the process?

Lots of issues to think about...


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
It will be too late
By the time the masses come to the realization that they need to know what we have to tell them, it will be too late.

Dem. you can't ignore the bandwidth issue.  It is going to be critical.

Susan, try 1,000,000 times more hits every minute.

The only solution I can think of that makes any sense at all is for all the flublgogia servers to mirror the same basis info, like that on GetPandemicReady.org.  That way the basic info will be more likely to be available.  

All the stuff on this and the other sites would be nice to have but is way to detailed and complex.  It also takes too long to get to the meat.

Dark Doctor


[ Parent ]
The only entity
with pockets deep enough to do the mirroring you're talking about is the U.S. gov. (and the governments of other nation states).

If HHS/CDC were smart, they'd just take GetPandemicReady.org and put up the mirroring that's required.  It would be a very good use of my tax dollar.  In the early days of a pandemic, while most still have access, the clear and concise information on that site would prove invaluable.  But you're right - it won't last a week without mirroring.

Can HHS/CDC admit that they can't be fleet of foot enough, or encompass as much, as GetPandemicReady.org has though, and have the humility to admit that a very useful site has already been created, instead of trying to recreate the wheel too late and in the watered-down fashion that's inevitable in anything created by a government committee?

Mirroring GetPandemicReady.org may be too simple and elegant a solution for entities like HHS/CDC and DHS, but a simple and elegant solution it is.    


[ Parent ]
it's available until they create their own
and once they realize how important home care is, they'l have to do something very similar.

[ Parent ]
pockets for mirroring?
The content in GetPandemicReady.org is free for the taking.  "Free as in beer", and more importantly "free as in speech".  I'm extraordinarily happy that they have done it.  Why?

Because the license they have chosen as authors means anyone (governments included, but not just governments) can copy the stuff into their own servers.  It will be good manners (no obligation!) to link to the original so users may eventually look for newer versions.

We don't have to wait for any "entity" to get a brain transplant and magically start behaving differently.  It will be nice if governments (just as one example, but there are also Lions Clubs and many other "entities") will link to or copy the content.  But any individual can do it too.

Copying is legal in this case (="when authors select the proper license")!  It's a good thing to do.  It's, to steal a phrase, even patriotic! LOL

Now, what's the problem?  The problem is one of endorsement, awareness, validation, you name it.  Stuff can be copied, but will it be read and acted upon?  That's our main problem at this stage.

But we all knew that.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
automagic mirroring
I've been told url + "nyud.net" creates mirrors on the fly. :-?

http://www.fluwikie.com.nyud.net seems to do the trick

I don't know how it works or if it would be really useful.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
"the internet" means
The internet means many things:

- discussion forums = conversation spaces
- wikis = organised aggregation of information spaces
- blogs = dated entries, most recent first
- chat = we'll need more on that; Dem says he can't type but we'd have many-to-many text conversations.  [Note to self: My experience with chats is that many threads mix together so a simple tool to tag each line and recompose each of the different parallel conversations would be a must.  It has to be made simple if we want to output conversations leaving out specifics, individual phone numbers or whatever it is that needs not go out in reports of conversations.]
- files
- video
- tool for cooperation (translations etc)
- connection to other things: youtube videos can be played on local TV, getpandemicready PDF files can be printed on newspapers (can they?  I mean, no IP problems but has it been tried in advance, talked to newspaper technical people?)
- databases with "what was done, what worked" information (see here and here), maybe modelled after http://www.gripenet.pt and using instedd.org tools

Of course "we" are thinking mostly about "discussion" (getting to see things with some sort of clarity amid the noise and haste).  And we'll collectively (like it or not, messy but helpful, or so we hope) play some sort of advisory (or at least co-advisory) role for many people (an open, messy think-tank of sorts).  Think of it as the "strategic thinking" amid the "tactical action" as portrayed here (see "escaping the tyrany of the urgent").  Well, somethn' in that general direction.  Whatever.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
good points
as to what the discussion forums should do, that's of major interest and why we ask the question. As to the bigger internet, it depends who you are (where you stand depends on where you sit!). Tackle it if you'd like but I had the former querstion in mind.

As for bloggers vs journalists, we do similar things but are not the same. There's excellent material on that, as that's dialogue that played out for several years now. My favorite is Jay Rosen's take (bloggers vs journalism is over). Jay is both a blogger and is/was? Dean of a journalism school.

Bloggers vs. journalists is over. I don't think anyone will mourn its passing. There were plenty who hated the debate in the first place, and openly ridiculed its pretensions and terms. But events are what did the thing in at the end. In the final weeks of its run, we were getting bulletins from journalists like this one from John Schwartz of the New York Times, Dec. 28: "For vivid reporting from the enormous zone of tsunami disaster, it was hard to beat the blogs."

And so we know they're journalism- sometimes. They're even capable, at times, and perhaps only in special circumstances, of beating Big Journalism at its own game. Schwartz said so. The tsunami story is the biggest humanitarian disaster ever in the lifetimes of most career journalists and the blogs were somehow right there with them.

The question now isn't whether blogs can be journalism. They can be, sometimes. It isn't whether bloggers "are" journalists. They apparently are, sometimes. We have to ask different questions now because events have moved the story forward. By "events" I mean things on the surface we can see, like the tsunami story, and things underneath that we have yet to discern.

That's why we're conferencing: to find the deeper pattern, of which blogging and journalism are a part. So that is what I give you: my best attempt at scratching out a pattern.



[ Parent ]
San Diego Fire example
During the fires last year in San Diego there were mulitple sites/blogs reporting.  One of the best was posting statements from local governments regarding road closures/openings, evacuations, and evacuation centers.  It also included information from individuals dealing with problems first hand (such as delays in reopening areas or backups and limited water).  Additional people could seek specific information about certain communities.  It had reports of individual fires status.  Granted this was a localized situation but it was a good credible source of information.  While I couldn't always access municipal sites I could access it and it was a single source for what I wanted.  It even interfaced with google maps showing locations of everything from fires to staging points.  I could see where portals would be very valuable.  The fire was a great example of what can be done with blogs.

absolutely
here's another example at Daily Kos , which I remember from when it ran. same thing happened during katrina.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/...


[ Parent ]
"couldn't always access municipal sites "
Everybody knows about the municipal sites, so they're overloaded, but the blogger's site is found by serendipity?  

Doing a Google search for "pandemic flu" brought up official government sites.  "Pandemic" brought up a business, 2 games, a movie, and the official .gov site.  "Pandemic help" brought up a state-by-state collection of links to sites!
http://www.pandemichelp.org/
Also Planforpandemic, by standingfirm, and a page of assorted news and .org and .gov sites.  
"Pandemic influenza"  - all .gov.
Four searches and I haven't found our forums yet.

So where will the completely ignorant people look?

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
good question
So where will the completely ignorant people look?

There is no good answer to that except maybe the thought that there will always be completely ignorant people.  Whatever anyone does, be it government or bloggers, will reach some people and not others.  It may be just a matter of balancing capability/resources vs need.

If pandemicflu.gov cannot do a good job and we can, just for instance, then we can only deal with however many can find us.  I suspect the capacity of any and all resources will be over-run in a pandemic.  

Which is why community outreach prior to a pandemic, and establishing local knowledge communities, is a priority prepandemic.  But that is for another topic.  Just added here for perspective.  ;-)


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Been there and shot down by you Susan
HEY SUSAN REMEMBER OUR LITTLE PROJECT LAST YEAR.  IT WENT UP IN SMOKE.  WHAT YOU SUGGEST HERE IS WHAT WE WANTED TO DO.  

Dark Doctor


[ Parent ]
was it?
WAS IT REALLY?

Shot down by me?  As far as I remember, my ONLY objection was that you should ask people's consent.  

Here's the original diary.  I'll let the facts speak for itself.  ;-)

http://newfluwiki2.com/showDia...


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
I love you Sue
Dark DOCTOR

[ Parent ]
I'm glad that's settled then LOL n/t



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Fluwiki google
Flu wiki came up when I googled "avian flu or pandemic flu". It came up earlier on the list when I searched for blogs on the topic.  Regarding the fire I had no knowledge of the site when I started - I looked at several before I setteld on that one as the best.  I found it through google topic search and as more specific search for fire blogs.  This is the same process anyone else could follow.  Once I found it I alerted others who were interested in what was happening via email.  Again this is the process that would be follow as people recommended the site.  

Will everyone find it? - probably not but for many it would be a fantastic link to area specific and general information.


[ Parent ]
what if local area health depts linked us
just as we link them in the state 'portals'?

While they scramble to create their own, what if local health departments listed getpandemicready.org for those starting out?


[ Parent ]
that would work n/t



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
here... a few examples of cross linking portals to Flu Wiki
Bethel, CT

http://www.bethelct.org/health...

Cambridge, MA

http://www.cambridgepublicheal...

Larimer County, Colorado

http://www.larimer.org/depts/h...

Multnomah County, OR

http://www.co.multnomah.or.us/...

there also academic links:

Emergency Preparedness Resources

http://www.nwpublichealth.org/...


[ Parent ]
Thanks, Dem! I'll give these links to my Emergency Preparedness manager and Health Dept. director.


"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
I've tried and tried...
But to no avail. Here in my state, the DoH will only link to "official" sites such as pandemicflu.gov, CDC and WHO. They've told me straight up that FluWiki is not an official portal for public information.  As such, they will not link to the site, nor send people our way.
The official stand on Avian Influenza and the possibility of a pandemic is listed on their site, and nothing will be changed.
I haven't tried the local Health Districts near where I live, but they all report to the state, and get their direction from same.

[ Parent ]
local people link in my state
even though the state will not.

Check the references from Mike Leavitt's blog and compare it to CIDRAP.

Secy. Leavitt of HHS:These people knew their stuff but named no naes or sites.

CIDRAP:

The US Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) recently held a tabletop exercise to assess how it could best work with the news media-including blogs and other online-only information sources-to get status updates and vital health information to the American people during an influenza pandemic.

The session was held on Mar 17 at HHS headquarters in Washington, DC. Representatives from online avian-flu information services such as Avian Flu Diary, FluTrackers, FluWiki, WebMD, and CIDRAP News participated in the exercise along with those from several national media organizations, including ABC News, National Public Radio, and Reuters.

The point is that it's easy to acknowledge but keep unofficial! As long as it is not thrust in people's faces, the state DPH's generally allow but don't sanction links.

[ Parent ]
Haven't been there for a while.
www.fluwikie.com

Just noticed IRC Chat, with several screens' worth of instructions.  It looks useful.  Does anybody use it?  It would be worth the time learning how, if it works.
http://www.fluwikie.com/index....

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
lugon likes it
i don't bacause I can'tt type.

[ Parent ]
irc and other chat rooms
People will use Messenger or whatever it's called (I've never needed to use it).  Motivation will cease to be a problem for many.

Of course, things can and should be simplified now, if complexity (as in "steep learning curve") is the issue.

Some less-than-precise typists are hugely great thinkers and communicators, we all know that.

Some slow typist's words still carry a lot of weight, so we can all wait a bit for the words to appear.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
Chunk the Problem Down.
As with any problem, chunk it down.

Clearly, having the internet up during a Pandemic should be an ace in the hole because it's a way of communicating that involves no physical contact.

Now lets see how it chunks down.....

Well, I'm sorry to say that the average Mom or Dad doesn't care what a CFR is, or recombination.

So my best guess is to divide things up and serve them out like we were taught instructing in the Army.

- What they MUST know.

- What they SHOULD know.

- What they COULD know.

For MUST KNOW stuff Whatever basic guides we have written in bog - simple language, should be put on industrial strength servers under a very simple and easy to remember URL, complete with save and print buttons if this is possible, because Dad might be sick and Mom might not know much about the net.

At the end of the "Must Know" pages, put a link  - just one link, to the "SHOULD KNOW" URL - which deals with slightly more esoteric issues. This link should maybe only work at the bottom of the first page - so that in a way people who access the second server are "pre qualified" in that they have read the "Must know "stuff. Maybe this page has an FAQ and Forum attached to it. Lots of links here to other news sources. Also on an industrial strength server.

Do the same for the COULD KNOW page which has information in yet  more depth as well as a forum.

As for Fluwiki, PFI, Plan for Pandemic,etc. I would suggest very strongly that they be made "members only" in the event of a Pandemic, or they are going to crash and no one will be able to read anything or communicate. It's not that people shouldn't be able to join, but that that the flow rate can be controlled.

As a surrogate I would suggest that static mirrors of the current websites could be set up so that people who want to ferret around can see whats been going on these last few years.............just mt two cents, and no, I don't know the slightest thing about designing web pages.

Is this a project for some group?


for right now, it's a thought experiment
this software (what you SHOULD know) scales up well, for example, and we can limit membership but not read-only.

The actual flu wiki (www.fluwikie.com, or what you COULD know) software does not scale up well, hence we might need to move to a new platform.

Simpler sites (getpandemicready.com, or what you MUST know) might easier be hosted elsewhere, and printed out.


[ Parent ]
weekly snapshots of fluwikie.com can be transferred to read-only mirrors
no need to change platform for that

i tried stripping IP numbers from raw textfile pages and it can be done - it needs to be automated tho'

pogge could use some help with that, methinks

Along the same line, MUST-KNOW sites should be newspaper printable all over the world.  Good Home Care?  A copy in every home from the very first week-end.  Translations would take a bit longer, maybe not much, better start now.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
pseudonyms - one of the first casualties
DemFromCT,

 Hi. I assume my pseudonym would be a casualy of the pandemic. If I am doing a good job then I would be called upon more publicly.

 Just as we saw you during the HHS leadership blog las year.

 That is a shame for now anyone can come and read or post as "a normal citizen."

  I'm torn as to how invloved lay-people should be. If we have 100,000 people to educate it will take alot of folks teaching small groups of 20 to 40.

  There will be alot of questions based on health, dietary, religious, skill level and economic issues - IMHO.

KObie


it's all voluntary, you know ;-)
No one needs to publicly reveal their identity unless they want to.  That is not going to change.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
When you see me I'll be the one in paper bag who looks like the unknown comic :o) n/t


[ Parent ]
i think i saw your picture
on the internets.

is this your lovely family?



[ Parent ]
LOL you guys are a hoot! n/t



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Yea that is me in the middle with the wife a kids. She got her handle braided for the occasion :o) n/t


[ Parent ]
pseudonym?
I always thought of my name as a "nom de plume"!  (-;

Didn't Benjamin Franklin write under one?  

Meanwhile - here's an idea... let's embed pandemic flu knowledgeable citizens in the mainstream press!


GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.


[ Parent ]
maybe it's not (only) embed, but couple-them-up somehow?
like cops and informants

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

[ Parent ]
likewise for good thinkers and fast typists ;-)


You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

[ Parent ]
heh
cops and informants are exactly what people worry about when they see 'embed'. And they don't like informants. People also worry about information control (which is why the Iraq news embeds have mixed reviews).

It means something else entirely (access), but that gets lost in the use of the term.


[ Parent ]
i see the concern, and there's bound to be a mixture i'd guess


You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

[ Parent ]
Should a major pandemic break out
anyone 'embedded' will be in the same boat as us. When it comes down to it, we're all vulnerable people with families and livelihoods.

The more informed contributers the better, no matter where they come from. I can also see a need for calming voices amongst the panic (trust me, I will go to pieces), but which government 'mole' could have a more level head than Dem?

And if they try to significantly influence us... well herding cats never got anyone anywhere ;-)


[ Parent ]
messiness will be the default
I can't imagine any one way to help that mess be better at sense-making than it is now.

But then, I lack imagination.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
What ever embeds say will be tightly controlled by the DHS Info Officer
Dark Doctor

[ Parent ]
...
if govt is looking to embed, it would be better to situate hardware in the colos most-likely to remain online - GSP peering points, perhaps.  DHS will have an idea what facilities are more likely to remain up - the flu boards with embeds may be able to leverage the partnership both ways - it makes no sense to embed folks on a board that hangs off a circuit that is likely to get maxxed on capacity, or drop offline because it is not well connected...  those facilities are not cheap, however - hence the leverage.  the govt would retain (from a resource standpoint) the boards online for the public to hit for information, and the participating boards would have use of extremely fault-tolerant facilities -- much more than space on a web-hosting providers' box.

boy, you can almost hear the tinfoil rattling, huh?


[ Parent ]
yep ;-)
boy, you can almost hear the tinfoil rattling, huh?

which is why I think Dem is right, in that we should for right now just brainstorm what we can do or want to do.  We have no idea what the situation is going to be with regards to servers, either on availability or acceptability.  Personally I'm leaving my mind open on that, and will assess whatever becomes available if and when such information is available.

For right now, again, the important question is to role-play or do tabletops in our heads, and ask ourselves what might be the best use of our time and resources, particularly at the very beginning when possibly lots of people are suddenly panicking and looking for credible information.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
...
that is the tough part, isn't it?  to put oneself in the mind of the folks that will be caught off-guard, surprised, and unprepared..  hardly a facile task - were we them, we wouldn't be here.

i could have emailed the mods, but i don't know who in govt is  interested.  my post was really more for them - it would take time for the govt folks to look into it.

the last thing i want to do is side track yet another thread, so i'll leave this one alone, too.  :-)


[ Parent ]
In the many minds
For some seek self sufficiancy,
For some seek simplicity
For some seek control
For some feel they can do nothing
For some are too young
For some think it is a plot
For some want it pre assembled
For some want a kit
For some a people people
For some are technical
For some are intuition
For some "it is the end of days"

 so many minds

Kobie
"the general issue with folks is they are not general issue - each is unique. Unique ness is what we all share."


[ Parent ]
Don't forget that as far as
"embeds" (i.e. people who "assist" in providing accurate official information?) and "journalists" go, they will be only a part of the new media story. The members of the sites themselves will be providing live, real-time, reporting to a much greater extent than they do now. Why? The news will be all around them.  

But, you know, they do do that now as well at times. Sometimes we'll have a member who can very authoritatively run down and debunk a rumor.  Sometimes they can add substantively to a major story.  Recently, one of our members at PFI realized what a very small world it was when the Duluth, MN, fatalities surfaced and his wife, a nurse at that hospital, could add on the scene data to the standard news reports.  Our member also interacted directly with the local reporters, which probably helped further inform those journalists' understanding and gave our member another perspective to report back on and yet more information to add to the story.  

That kind of thing will happen all the time as pandemic unfolds and laypeople will become the eyes and ears on the scene.  They will, in a very real sense, be the real reporters.  The public and TPTB will be very interested in those viewpoints as they unfold, real-time.

Some of the best "reporting" out of Katrina was via citizen journalism of one kind or another.  But Katrina was only the tip of the iceberg as far as that goes. Not many of those later lauded bloggers/citizen journalists weren't really fluent in  the Cat. 5 hurricane world (they hadn't spent years on hurricane discussion forums for the most part) and there were terrible physical barriers to widespread public engagement.  This time, as long as the net and the sites hold, you will have lay "experts" in every corner of the country and around much of the world.  Who knew, for example, that we'd have someone so near to the scene in Duluth?  It will be like that in spades when pandemic begins to unfurl.  That kind of citizen-journalism will be brand new, and pretty exciting, if you ask me.  


[ Parent ]
absolutely!
we did some nifty CA wildfire blogging over at Daily Kos and did our part during Katrina as well (see Crisis Blogging).

they will be only a part of the new media story.

It's actually easier for me to understand our part (we've done it already) than their part (they haven't), which is why I asked the question! ;-P


[ Parent ]
That was funny ;o) Sincerly Lefty. n/t


[ Parent ]
Some comments
I feel I got to land here..

In Us there are 10 regions as determine by OSHA and 5 determined by Northcomm (subject of discussions these days).

From a National Security point of view, it was in restraint diffusion document that by the software capable of determining the origin (region) of the visitors, they would only have access to information on how the situation (medical and social) is evolving in their region.

These strategies and tactics appeared inevitable to limit damages.

Another point, it as been decided that there will be radio waves dedicated for the situations and of course the Internet structure, access and capacity will be totally different of what it is now.

This is easy to understand, there will be an unprecedented surge of traffic and it will crunch the system.

There WILL be priorities on servers & networks that will stay up.

That is why I ask Mrs Marshall when are they going to print and send to each home printed documentation on how to 'Cope'.

In Québec these printed documents are done in many languages and are ready to be sent to each home when it will be decided.

We must be realistic, the Internet will not be as is once the pandemic or pre0pandemic is declared, it is a matter of priority and civil protection and services.

When I ask to produce printed documentation for Gps, Hospitals, Health Services it is because it is obvious that necessity will change the rule of internet, the access and the sites that will stay up.

Snowy

As a man is, so he sees. As the eye is formed, such are its powers.
William Blake  


True - also not every one has internt access! N/t


[ Parent ]
Internet for contact with rural/remote areas
I see lots of ideas about how to structure basic information, but not too much on how to receive and "redistribute" it. Rural areas don't have "local" TV stations. They usually have local radio, but not always. Rural areas will need ways to keep others ("officials"? Healthcare workers?) informed about what is going on in these areas. Urban areas will need to know how rural areas are being affected because some of the resupply items will be coming from farmers and ranchers in these rural places.

There needs to be a way that the "haves" can communicate. For example, if a poultry farm's 10,000 chickens are still healthy and producing, people need to know that help is needed to move all those eggs to areas where it is needed.

I think the basic supply chain is going to be so interrupted that we need farmers/ranchers to let others know what food/feed items they have.

Also, rural areas may need to get help *in*. If the area's only PA or NP gets sick or dies, some other medical personnel will be needed. If phones, power, whatever are out, I'm not sure how the effective the Internet will be.  


internet access during a pandemic?
It is likely during a mild to moderate pandemic (here I refer to CAR not to CFR) i.e. with fewer than 15% taken ill, that the grid will stay up, at least in large part.

Is that any guarantee that the internet will function during a pandemic?  How robust is the net?  How many hits per minute can the various flu blogs take?  My expectation is that the internet will be unusable once a pandemic starts, even a 'mild' pandemic.  Well, ok, maybe I will be able to order books online, but anything remotely resembling advice on treatment of the flu, field expedient food or water or shelter, or anything selling anything remotely practical will be swamped.  The scene at the grocery stores will be played out in virtu, too. (Hat tip Zelazny)

If there is a severe pandemic I expect widespread power outages and failure of the internet.

If you want to be helpful to those who have failed to prepare beforehand, plan with these contingencies in mind.

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"


;-) I guess the question here is
ASSUMING the internet stays up, what can we do.  

I know it's a big assumption, but OTOH all contingency planning needs to be made to cover all possibilities.  While we need to plan for everything being down, it would be very silly for us not to consider the possibility that we MAY be able to have servers that run even if intermittently.  At such times of severe disruption, anything that we can get up and running will be extremely valuable.

Hence more need to carefully consider what we can do with it.  IMHO.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
internet access during a pandemic?
My comments were not intended to be overly negative, just realistic.  If I wanted to try to make the FluWiki more resilient, I would set up mirror sites with streamlined menus at several locations with multiple servers set up for download only; leave the upload for the main site.  The realitiy is that almost every contingency that an unprepared person would face that can be handled ad hoc has already been thought about and posted on.  The reality also is that most unprepared folks are going to be at the mercy of the system, and there won't be much help to offer.

In short, we may be able to help with some things, but (lack of) food especially is going to be a problem, and the internet won't help with that.

Civil Disorder is also going to be a problem, and the Internet and the FluWiki are not going to help with that, either.

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"


[ Parent ]
we can't fix everything
I believe that since a pandemic spreads inexorably but not all at once and not instantly, we'll have time to mirror and download early on.

On day 10 we'll still be up (servers allowing the traffic). On day 40, different scenario. But I'm thinking it best to plan for day 10.


[ Parent ]
Agreed.
It makes sense to optimize the use of resources while we have them - and to plan for when we don't.

[ Parent ]
It may take 2 weeks for the pandemic to spread throughout the US
But after the Karo cluster, I would not count on it.

My expectation is that the odds are that the first any of us will know about the start of a pandemic will be when we see thousands of cases.  I do not think it likely that we will have a week, let alone 2.  Maybe a day or so, but I doubt it.  

If you plan to set up mirror sites, I'd do it now.....

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"


[ Parent ]
i don't think you are right
based on any of the models, but what do models know? ;-P

I wouldn't bet my life on the models.


[ Parent ]
What the models assume--
Is that we will be able to recognise the index cases when they arise.  That is a considerable assumption.  GIGO; even the best models give bad results with unrealistic assumptions.

If you run the models with NO recognition of the index case, which I find far more likely, the spread of disease in the US lags the spread elsewhere by just a few days.  By the time that a pandemic is recognised (or admitted to) at the origin, it will be well-established here in the US.

Based on the behaviour of various PTB in various conuntries, I give it roughly a 1 in 4 chance that we will get notice of a pandemic starting before it's full blown in the US.  I do not think we are likely to have the luxury of advance notice.

Remember the airliner full of flu patients?  That was subsequently released to discharge passengers into North America?  'nuff said.

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"


[ Parent ]
perhaps, but
your scenario is one of many. No harm planning for slower spread as well as explosive spread.

The fact is there's planning to be done about how we function if we're up as well as how we best stay up. Be that as it may, we should remain flexible about what will happen.  I am all for downloading in advance.

In the meantime the need will be to disseminate info about home care. I am convinced of that.


[ Parent ]
Plan for the worst most likely not the best
It makes no sense to prepare for the best and hope for the best.  This is the approach our esteemed PTB have taken and it dooms us all the suffer a terrible fate.  

We are lay experts on this subject and professional experts on various aspects of it.  The best plan, IMO, is to go basic.  Those who are already informed have already been given the opportunity to prepare.  While I do not think those who remain clueless up to the point of outbreak have an ice cube's chance of survival on Miami Beach, I do think that we have an ethical and moral responsibility to do what we can to help those seeking it.

To this end, we should all get behind a single Internet initiative that has the type of basic advice the unwashed will need to get ready.

GetPandemicReady.org is the type of site that provides this information.  We do not need to reinvent the wheel.  What we need to do is get it rolling and support it as fully as we can.  One way is to lobby our friends at DHS, DHHS, and others of TPTB for that site to be one of the select few that remain up during the time of Internet service restriction.  This may be our best hope to make a little difference during the run up and initial aspects of the pandemic.

Dark Doctor


[ Parent ]
true
there's no need to reinvent a working wheel.

[ Parent ]
To take the load off flu sites
both government and flubie, perhaps the best thing we could do is to take a pandemic PDF document to other sites, those unconnected to flu. Ask people to pass the PDF on to the other sites they frequent. The greatest game of pass the parcel in history?

Start with a simple document but follow up with more detailed instructions/help.


exactly!
getpandemicready.org is organized into .pdfs for that reason.

if there are other things we should do the same with here or at the wiki proper, we should identify them now... recipes, guides, etc.

http://www.fluwikie.com/pmwiki...


[ Parent ]
We might need different toolboxes ;-)
to deliver to different countries. Some more local information and advice.

We might also need to decide how much we distribute, depending on what sort of pandemic it is. eg, no point scaring people with a 'how to deal with your dead' PDF if the CFR is low. Equally, a generic 'try to cough into your sleeve' one page leaflet wouldn't go down well if people are dropping like flies.


[ Parent ]
some potential problems with IP
and I don't mean Internet Protocol, but rather Intellectual Property.

getpandemicready.org is a great resource that can be shared freely.  "Free" as in freedom as well as free as in price, but here I'm talking about freedom - people are free to help others.  Before purists of any kind start to pick on me, I have my likes and dislikes about what to do with my intellectual property in non-pandemic times, and I respect other author's wishes to the max - and at the same time, I truly think in those pandemic-onset days people will want to be able to help without hassle.

What I mean is "free content" will spread faster.

And of course I guess non-free content will also spread quite fast too if people just go ahead and pirate it (I'm not recommending this), so IP worries may not be too relevant once the next pandemic does start.

But they are relevant now that we're "prepping" (in this wider sense).

So please, authors, consider adding some kind of add-on to your copyrighted work, in the manner of "help yourselves if megacatastrophe happens".

Ah, but we can't change what authors will do regarding their work.  (And I wouldn't want to, personally.  It's enough to have to decide what I do with my own life, thankyou very much.)

So what can we do?  Look for stuff we can legally copy, just link to good stuff we can't copy, and maybe find (or create or incite the creation) some replacements for the legally uncopyable content.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
Steal my book
As an author of books on the pandemic, I can tell you that there is not a lot of money in it.  The onset of the pandemic will result in big sales for books like mine but the resulting economic chaos on the scale that I expect will result in the loss of most gains by severe inflation.  I am a rich doctor already so thank goodness I don't need the money from my book sales.  The reason I write (this is for you Anon XYZ) is not to make money but to clarify my thoughts on this riveting topic and to translate them into prose that just plain folk can read and understand.  This gives me great satisfaction and pleasure especially if what I have written actually does some good.  For me that is the real payoff.

I pledge to put electronic copies of all my books on this and any site in PDF format for free download.  When? Well once things begin to look more dicy or when Dem and/or Susan ask me to do it.  I own the rights to the electronic versions of my published work so there will be no hassle with the paperback publishers or IP concerns.  

Dark Doctor


[ Parent ]
DEM and SUSAN, Ask him too
I for one would like to read at least on of them.

[ Parent ]
lol sure!
Anybody who has resources to post can post them.  That's what Flu Wiki is for.  

You can either post it yourself, or if you need help, email it to Dem or me or even lugon, who is good at creating and managing wikipages.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
or post it on the forum
whichever one is easier.  ;-)


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
we're happy to host it as a pdf
or other electronic file. there's a lot of interest.

[ Parent ]
My public has spoken
Dem, I will email you the electronic copy of the first book.  Do with it what you will.  

GW


[ Parent ]
the e-version is here
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/upl...

feel free... thanks to the generosity of the author.


[ Parent ]
Where will we all be in the first few days of a pandemic?
Once we know IT has started, I can see that there might be a fair bit of silence on the flu boards and blogs. There are things we will be doing. Eg Dem and Susan may be off with TPTB. Many of the parents and grandparents will be organising their little ones. And slackers like me will be making last minute preps (it won't matter how ready I get, I'll still be doing more).

We may be too tired or too intent on expanding our own awareness of the situation to spend many hours answering the same, well documented questions that are bound to crop up. Even the newshounds and the translators may have left their posts so there might be little new to discuss.


frankly I don't expect that at all ;-)
Eg Dem and Susan may be off with TPTB.

I'm more likely to be writing online and doing last minute preps.  Assuming I can get my family physically in one spot.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
But you won't be sat in front of the computer.
You'll be looking after your own family, which is as it should be.

Dealing with setting up another web site on this side of the Atlantic might be the last item on a very long list.

Perhaps a better insurance policy for us (flubies) to be able to keep in touch should the net stay up but Fluwiki fall down, is to preselect some sites where we'll go looking for each other?

Should a pandemic break out, I'm sure other forum sites would be happy to let us talk shop.


[ Parent ]
Think of it as Fluwiki hot desking ;-) n/t


[ Parent ]
On the various mom's blogs, it would be just what they'd want to talk about, anyway.
Maybe register early, just to be able to get on quickly?  

Here's a collection of links to Mom blogs, by state:
http://themomblogs.com/blogs/l...

Connecticut has one, movin' like a herd of turtles, by a home-schooling mom on a farm!  There are 27 more, but this is the only one I tested.  (linked to, I mean)
http://movinlikeaherdofturtles...

I'm enjoying Kvetch blog, in Illinois, but I'll have to get back to it later.  Isn't Google great!

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
hear hear - yes. Email or even Ham radio.
If DHS said to do something I would still see if SusanC, DemFromCT, FlaMedic agreed.

 As for prepping, KathyInFL has my ear, ehh attention.

 I would be running alot of stuff past you guys and gals.

Kobie
"Rappor is a strange thing. It binds people like glue yet moves things to action like lubricant"


[ Parent ]
just brainstorming a bit
would it be possible to create a secure Google pandemic portal for three way communication between a hierarchy of networked (local and regional) volunteer bloggers and town officials (through town government websites). There would be accountability on all levels, everyone receiving the same information. Bloggers could present the information any way they see fit and are responsible for the content. However, misinformation could be corrected by moderators (editors) who check the information for accuracy and give a friendly nudge privately when corrections should be made.

Local bloggers, anonymous or not, could then disseminate information back into the towns. The RSS feed from the blog could also be run on local television. Articles could also be reprinted freely in newspapers.

Setting up a blog is really easy to do.

I can think of tons and tons of people who I would love to read a blog of theirs everyday. This sure would spread the information far and wide.

Here I am babbling on and this probably has already been suggested. :blush:

Pray for all people and rulers
1Timothy 2:1-4

(Extending the culture of life.)

http://preparedcitizens.wordpr...


I hope the interenet will not be the education channel
In saying what role the internet will play,
 what about "what roles not to play"

1) I still belive there should be one if not three pandemic channels. News, Training, Community news. Both TV and Radio.

 2) How to videos, books, etc - from the library! Yes that thing Ben Franklin pushed. The grocery shelves may run dry from last min prepping but information only needs a teacher to deliver. Education, like love, grows and gets better as you give it away.

 3) Education for kids - Here I go to twenty or so channels. Keep video and pictures off the internet as much as possible.

 4) Junk email - people are going to be home for long hours. Probably forwarding jokes, and funny stuff.

Kobie


Spot on!
If the pandemic is a biggie, the net will last much longer if it goes low tech.

Many of the plans to keep businesses + schools running from home all involve the net. The increase in traffic will huge.

Downloading games would have to go too.


[ Parent ]
We'd need some (fun and downloadable) lessons:
Teach Yourself to_  knit, sprout veggies, sew, play chess, play the guitar, etc.  This is another thing that would work better with advance planning, so the supplies would be in the house already (or all ready).

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
Pre downloade lessons
Jane,

 I like your list.

 With reports, people VPN into work, and 40% reduction in IT geeks adding games over the internet may not be the best.

 A CD holds about 600Meg. It may be better to put those out as CDs, VHS tapes or DVDs that people do not have to download.

 DVD holds about 5 gig or 48 CDs

 Why is VPN thing a biggie?  VPN or virutal private network, allows one to work over the internet yet keep all the information encrypted. Here is another problem - most encryption adds significant overhead. This 5 to 20% overhead reduces internet capacity 5 or 20% for the user and slows other things down as well.

  I hope anything they need is downloaded before SIP, before the pandemic hits.

  Why not "hits the area" ??  Because if H5N1 rages though India and people are downloading too much then we will get reduced internet traffic out of India due to local traffic clogging the connections.

 Just some thougths.

 Anyone have any ideas on the downloadable games?
Kobie


[ Parent ]
There will be no Internet access available to the public during the pandemic
This is great stuff except for the fact that the IP provider's Internet servers, local phone and electric service will all be off-line during the pandemic once it gets really wound up.  Sure, there will be Internet for a while as well as TV etc.  Once the lights go out, only the dedicated military circuits will be operational (remember the Internet was created and built by the US military initially not Al Gore).  They have redundant systems designed to remain functional even in the event of a nuclear exchange so their plans and preparations should be adequate for the pandemic.  

Even if you could access a military computer connected to the Internet, most sites mentioned above would be dark because their servers would be off.  I don't know if the CDC sites would be up or not.  Even if they were up, most folks would have no way to access them.

The point I am trying to make is that if you need information to survive the pandemic, and you will, you need to download it now.  Don't wait until the pandemic starts.  If you do then it is likely that a lot of good sites will be crashed by an avalanche of users all trying to log on at the same time.  I also suggest you make hard copies of critical information that you will need as well as having several good backups of your computer files.  Investing in a solar computer battery charger is a good way of guaranteeing access to the information you have stored on your laptop once the electric grid is down.  

PS: when the grid gets stressed and becomes threatened, be sure and disconnect from it because there will be power surges that occur as it dies that will be strong enough to fry your electronics.

GW


a possible (and maybe a likely ) scenario
not the guaranteed scenario, especially in the first few weeks.

[ Parent ]
I'm sure a pandemic will be somewhere on the scale
of TEOTWAWKI at one end and very bad flu season at the other. The problem is - what, when and how.

We could have a minor pandemic and go over the top, urge people to panic and then watch a lot of people suffer from an economic pile up. Or at the least, lose credibility. People die from finacial disasters too.

We might cry wolf and see even the modest preparations made by governments now, stop.

I agree, the best way to save people is to prepare them now, but without significant backing (governmental, media, scientific) it's not going to happen. Susan and Dem (and others) are doing their best to change that but we can't rely on the status quo changing.

So, should a major pandemic emerge the only thing we can do is make as much pandemic survival literature available to as wide a spread of people as possible. The internet is the first, best option. Waiting for them to come here (or other flu sites) is not the best use of our time.

We need to target the type of literature we spread to the severity of the pandemic. If it is TEOTWAWKI type of pandemic, we need to concentrate on urging isolation and how to live off the land (eg collecting and purifying water). If it's closer to a minor pandemic we should advise on social distancing and proper hygiene.

The web won't crash immediately but we'll need to be ready to use any small window to get our message out. We need to decide what we'll do with that time, which, unless I'm wrong, is what this thread was intended for.


[ Parent ]
this is possibly the sanest response ;-)
I'm sure a pandemic will be somewhere on the scale of TEOTWAWKI at one end and very bad flu season at the other.

No one knows how severe the next pandemic will be.  Those who like the UK government choses 2.5% CFR as the ceiling (not the floor) for worst case scenario is just as misguided as those who believe TEOTWAWKI.

How much do we know about pandemics?  All that we know are based on the history of ONE single virus, that of 1918, and all its progenies including in 1957 and 68.  

What do we know of H5N1?  We do NOT know that it can cause the next pandemic.  No doubt this statement of mine will infuriate many and possibly attract all sorts of labels, both as to the nature of the statement, possibly my sanity and/or even my motivations.  I don't care.  That statement is based on science - the science that includes scientific methods, that calls uncertainty uncertainty and not anything else.  That calls "we don't know" by its real name and not anything else.

That uncertainty also gives the right, yes the right, for freedom of expression, that for those who believe in planning and preparing for all types of scenarios, we have just as much right to discuss and plan within those scenarios for the benefit of mankind, as those who believe TEOTWAWKI.

I only ask that those who subscribe to the latter, and that the internet will not stay up (which I do believe in, for the most part, but not absolutely and not continuously) be allowed to discuss and plan according to the situation as described by the originator of this diary.  Which is that ASSUMING that the internet stay up, what can we do to help our fellow human beings.

If you do not believe in this scenario, fine, go start another diary and discuss your alternatives.  In fact, you don't even have to do that, there are plenty of existing ones for you to post to.  This is one of the first attempts to describe a scenario where some of us who are interested want to discover whether we CAN, with some ingenuity, help save some others.  Is that a goal to be laughed at?  I pity those of you who think so.  

Someday when this is all over (yes, it WILL be all over, at some point), those of us who are left standing, will still have to look in the mirror and ask ourselves "did we get it right?  Did I do the right thing?  Could I have done better?  To save 1 life?  2 lives?  How many more could I have saved?"

Yes, go ahead and laugh, but please also respect others' right to discuss issues that are important to them, even if they are not important or even appear ridiculous to you.  I assure you that each one of us hold beliefs that plenty of others find similarly ridiculous.  Just that most people are fortunately too polite and generous to laugh in your face.  Thank your lucky stars if that has been your experience, and leave others well alone.

Thank you.




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
bravo, yes, and yes - and thank you
The web won't crash immediately but we'll need to be ready to use any small window to get our message out. We need to decide what we'll do with that time, which, unless I'm wrong, is what this thread was intended for.

And prepare so that we'll be able to make the best use of that time.

The steps are straightforward, at least in theory:
1.- Imagine what we'd want to do.
2.- Comb our images (the outcome of our "imagination work") for things we'll wish we had.
3.- Get as many as possible of those things ready in a doable framework.

Regarding the internet, there'll be a window to get stuff out.

I want to see if and how we can put that window to its best use, in practical terms.

I'm glad Dem started this thread, which of course is one among many other things to do.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
on the web not crashing immediately
That period, as the outbreak is starting and there is a lot of uncertainty, is actually my biggest concern.

We have all seen how even seasoned flubies flock en mass to the forums at times when outbreaks news was particularly alarming, such as during the Karo cluster (remember how so many were certain that was IT?).  It will be no different except many times worse should the real thing happen.  Because Karo, Turkey, Pakistan all subsided within a matter of weeks (the news and the alarm, I mean), but imagine that level of anxiety persisting day-in day-out over weeks and weeks of uncertainty, rumors, recriminations, denials (by governments).  Imagine how stressful it's going to get even for old-timers, let alone those who have just discovered this new threat and realize they are utterly unprepared.

There IS a case for going over these scenarios and preparing as best we can how we can help ourselves and others.  I believe it needs to go beyond giving out pdf information for prepping, because a) there will be very little time left for systematic prepping and b) just as for most of us the knowledge that we have today evolved and grew over time, it's not possible for newbies to grasp the implications quickly.  And they will know it and therefore be even more panicked.

Along with practical advice and scientific explanations and analysis of news, I believe we need to be mentally prepared for a lot of hand-holding.  Even if there is little we can do for someone with no means of preparing and utterly desperate, we can still be there as voices of compassion and support.  We can still help others by brainstorming and finding solutions out of seemingly impossible situations.

We don't know the full ingenuity of the hive mind until it gets tested.  I hope it never does, but if we ever get to that day, I say we're better off if we have thought through these issues than not.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
hand-holding, implications, greater hive-mind
Agreed.

In my mind, PDFs at that stage are NOT about "prepping" in the "pantry" sense.

At that stage, stocking up is not an option.

Forget it.

Now, what do "they" (millions of them: relatives, neighbour, folks all over the world) actually DO?

Imagine it was solved, muddled through, mitigated somehow, we all did our best ...  Just what specifically did we all do [in those first weeks, regarding the role of the internet]?

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
no, don't forget it
we need them all.  Is what I'm saying.  ;-)


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
The need for "hand-holding" reminded me of another site
somebody linked to, about what to do when a catastrophe strikes out of the blue.  First thing is to sit down, take a deep breath, and start listing the contents of your refrigerator and freezer, and plan how to use it without wasting anything, including seeds from vegetables and fruits (save them to plant) and peels (save for compost for your new garden, whether inside or out).  That's a calming idea, to sit down and make a list.  And breathe.  (Sorry, but I don't recall the name of the site and don't know how long it will take to find the link.)

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
us Brits would make a cup of tea n/t



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
"deep breath and assets list" - point taken, thanks Jane, I'll steal that one!


You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

[ Parent ]
iNTERNET WILL GO DOWN
I agree with the Dr the Internet will go down.
Just look at the history of sites that didn't imagine the 'hits' or loads on them during specific times, and multiply that exponentially.  Plus - the assumption of a number of people seems to be the grid will stay up -  Lots of luck with that. A PDF file on your computer doesn't do you any good if you can't access it.  Print it out NOW and save in a safe place.
Also - cell phones - the load placed on the towers/carriers will crash them very quickly. It's scary the number of people that rely only on cell phones anymore --
We hosted an airshow a year ago and had agreements with the main service providers to provide the geographic area with more access during the 2 day period. (est attendance of 100,000+ each day.) Even with the pre-planning, the towers went down before noon and didn't come back up until late in the evening both days -- even after the carriers supposedly gave us even more resources the 2nd day. Our EOC reminded participants in the am the 2nd day that the towers were expected to go down - and we had alternatives in place when it did happen the 2nd day, but not the 1st, 'cause we THOUGHT we had pre-planned adequately :(  

[ Parent ]
Just read this thread through from the beginning
As i was reading the posts, i became acutely aware that you all were talking nonsense. It was obvious that a "sandmanosis" had taken hold of the group.

Then i got t o The Dark Doc posts and the heavens opened.

He is so right. Internet during the pandemic? hahahahaha

People are going to run out of food fast because they have not prepped. Those who have prepped will become targets of their neighbors who have not prepped.

It will be a nightmare.

The Doc is right. The only thing to use the net for now is to warn people, and track the monster to get a head start if that will even be possible.

The idea of using the web during a pandemic just doesn't make sense unless it is a mild pandemic, then what are we bothering about?

H5N1 is a monster and it is growing in size and strength every day.

It is coming to eat our children.... MY CHILDREN.

Lets keep our eyes on the ball. There has been a call for newtrackers. That is a place to start. I cannot due to business concerns. I am moving my business after a 21 year stay into 3 locations with a one year lease (hows that for pandemic planning? One of the places is my home where i hope to carry on the business for as long as the grid and web are up. Every cent will count then. I dont think it will last long though.

Tell the truth


please refrain from comments
like "sandmanosis". It's a peculiarity of another site, and has no basis here (and is actually rather offensive).

There are varying views on what will happen. Those that expect TEOTWAWKI will think Dr. Woodson's comment a breath of fresh air. Those, like me, who are working on community mitigation and still believe in it, not so much. Your mileage may vary.

There is room for a wide variety of opinion because the truth is we don't know what's going to happen (so it makes sense to plan for all the contingencies). It is always worth noting that those who are absolutely sure they know have no more basis for their surety than the rest of us. In fact they do us a service by reviewing the very real possibility. However, it is a disservice to insist it is an inevitable outcome and no other should be planned for. That's something we fear but do not know.


[ Parent ]
slow-mo, not easy to predict
People cling on to hopes because hope, on average and across many generations, does help.  ("Hope is the last thing you lose", they say.  Because after losing hope, the rest doesn't matter much.)

Now, I know mentioning hope on this board is bound to elicit the "hope is not a plan" meme, which is fair.

But I write it in the context of a pandemic that's starting, when millions will have lots of hope, they will want to do the right thing, and they will use whatever is available, be it snake oil or N95s.

So we want to have as much N95-stuff as we possibly can.  And PDF files.  And forums where both self-reliance and community-survival attitudes are there for the taking.  It's been called "our toolbox", and I personally would rather see it full if we can.

And I mention "slow-mo" because, chaotic as it will be, whatever happens in moment n+1 will depend heavily on whatever happened in moment n.  So the very first few days do matter, and that's why I'd love to have sharable content, and open-designed simplemasks, and good home care and community care for those who'll benefit from receiving it, and lots of information on how it spreads, and lots of ideas on how to do asynchronous transfer, and everything else.

Information of the useful kind.  Easy to pass on.  That's what "no strings attached" is for.  And thank you so much, dear authors!

And we on forums, on day n and then n+1 and for as long as we can, will be able to help folks who will digest that information.  We'll help those bloggers who take it to their communities where information will flow person-to-person, by phone or example or whatever.

And it will have to be "good" information (noisy, challenged, diverse, and lots of it - whatever works).  Because it's behaviours that matter.

(I'm ready to change my mind on any of this, btw.  I mean, what do I know, really?)

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
A few quick points
I read this entire thread through last night. I see there are quite a few new comments to catch up on but at the moment duty calls so I'll just throw a few things out there.

Of course it's entirely possible that if TSHTF it will be on us quickly enough and be devastating enough that the internet will be only a memory and this entire discussion will be moot. It's also possible that an asteroid will collide with the earth next month and this entire discussion will be moot. So let's forget the whole thing and all go get drunk.

Still with me? Does anyone know for sure that H5N1 is the one? Anyone know what the CFR will be for sure? Does anyone know for certain how quickly a pandemic would be on us and how quickly the grid would actually go down and take the 'net with it? No? Does anyone even know that an influenza pandemic is the next disaster that will see us putting the preparations done here and skills developed here to use?

I know I was away for a while but I don't expect the answers to these questions are any firmer than they were before I was, um, distracted. Personally I think there's a point to this conversation.

It's true that when TSHTF Flu Wiki and associated sites won't be the first stop for a whole lot of people who don't already know we're here. But as Dem pointed out up thread, the wiki is linked to in quite a number of places. As long as the net is up I would expect that domain to see some activity so it's worth considering what value it may have. I suspect that in a crisis, some of the content currently in the wiki won't be a high priority for a lot of people. But it also occurs to me to wonder if I'm qualified to judge what should be left out. I'm still mulling over the specifics. And besides the actual wiki content, we should also review the material we have available for download there (and there's something that can eat up bandwidth in a hurry).

Lugon: don't sweat the IP addresses. I went hard-core on that at one point, meaning I used the C++ tools I use in other contexts, and got something working. I need to get back to it for a large scale test but  consider possibilities without letting that privacy issue be an obstacle.

And when the talk turns to getting hard copy before everything goes dark, don't forget that the "print" option in the wiki's action menu — the list of options at the upper right — gives you the page contents suitable for printing without the sidebar, header, footer and other distractions. Try it. You'll like it.

Gotta run for now.


IOW
print now, argue later.   ;-0

[ Parent ]
Ah pogge, words of wisdom....
"Of course it's entirely possible that if TSHTF it will be on us quickly enough and be devastating enough that the internet will be only a memory and this entire discussion will be moot. It's also possible that an asteroid will collide with the earth next month and this entire discussion will be moot. So let's forget the whole thing and all go get drunk."

I for one do expect increase in traffic here at the fluwiki, and other sites, as people start wanting information on "this virus/pandemic flu everyone is talking about." It's possible we could be swamped with people posting in with panic question after panic question. We have to keep in mind the sheer number of people who know nothing about this. And if this happens, it'll be important to answer these questions without causing more panic. This is when we flubies must be aware, to keep ourselves, and others grounded and focused. We do a fantastic job of that in our current state. I do think we should be prepared for an influx of people. Most likely, scared and panicky

I for one want to know what is going on around the world. I plan on using the internet to track and gather info about "this virus everyone is talking about." Why wouldn't others want to do the same?

This is just my .1 cent worth ;-)
A penny isn't what it use to be!

United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...


[ Parent ]
and mine as well, cottontop ;-)
This is just my .1 cent worth ;-)

What you said pretty much summarizes what I think, that I for one would want to track this right up to the moment when the servers crash.  I'm sure lots of people will be doing the same.  


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
so it's two moments, right?
I think it pays to look at things in slow motion.  Even at catastrophic events.  I say this because even in a heart-attack situation, there's a small window of oportunity to save that one life if there's a properly trained person around.

Here, we're trying to imagine what would be the best use of that "before the servers (eventually) crash".  That time period will last 2 days or 2 weeks or 2 months, partly depending on what the virus does, and partly depending on what many humans do.

Our actions will be part of a huge messy wild wasp nest of activity, worldwide.  Flublogia will or will not have an impact at that time.

It's not about PDFs specifically.  A whole lot will happen.

In a way, we're preparing for the unprepared.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
Ah pogge, words of wisdom....
"Of course it's entirely possible that if TSHTF it will be on us quickly enough and be devastating enough that the internet will be only a memory and this entire discussion will be moot. It's also possible that an asteroid will collide with the earth next month and this entire discussion will be moot. So let's forget the whole thing and all go get drunk."

I for one do expect increase in traffic here at the fluwiki, and other sites, as people start wanting information on "this virus/pandemic flu everyone is talking about." It's possible we could be swamped with people posting in with panic question after panic question. We have to keep in mind the sheer number of people who know nothing about this. And if this happens, it'll be important to answer these questions without causing more panic. This is when we flubies must be aware, to keep ourselves, and others grounded and focused. We do a fantastic job of that in our current state. I do think we should be prepared for an influx of people. Most likely, scared and panicky

I for one want to know what is going on around the world. I plan on using the internet to track and gather info about "this virus everyone is talking about." Why wouldn't others want to do the same?

This is just my .1/2 cent worth ;-)
A penny isn't what it use to be!

United we stand: Divided we fall

http://cottontopssandbox.wordp...


[ Parent ]
...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/O...

i won't say anything negative...   or point out any teensy little issues...  just fyi..  it might be useful to consider, when the corporate lans that are gigE on the desktop shift their traffic to the net...   and i'll leave it there...   back into the dark spot from whence i came..  :-)


another use of the 'embed' word.
Democrats will embed a single state-based political blogger with each delegation at its national convention later this summer, the latest sign of the courting of the burgeoning blogosphere by both political parties.

http://blog.washingtonpost.com...

I still don't care for the (inside the beltway) term.


can somebody tell somebody (whoever made it up)
to stop using that word?!!!

It really is jarring and annoying.  How about 'attach', 'second', 'intern' or some such career-related phrase?  The word 'embed is never used in professional connotations if all they mean is someone working within someone else's agency or office or institution!

Unless they mean something different, otherwise they really should choose a different word.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
LOL
Some folks respond to language correction, some don't.

Political reporters? Not so much.


[ Parent ]
HAH!!! I think I would look at CNN first...
Wasn't it they who "embedded" reporters in the front lines in the 1991 Gulf War?  :-)

[ Parent ]
well, in that context
you have journalists embedded with the army in order to GATHER information.  Is that the intention here?  That someone is going to be 'embedded' with bloggers or media to GATHER information?

If not, they should use a different word, in my very humble but admittedly opinionated opinion!  LOL


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
other way around
bloggers would embed to gather info, except it doesn't work like that. Let's pretend it's a real pandemic and a blogger or reporter gets to wander around the EOC at CDC asking questions. Interesting, but unlikely.

Bottom line is that they respect us enough to answer our queries, some of which are quite sophisticated. But what it really means is unclear.


[ Parent ]
yeah keeping that communication is good
I'm kinda nitpicking on that word.  lol  This is all new to everyone, so I guess it is a matter of trial and error possibly.  For communications, I mean.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Double your pleasure, double your fun . . .
I would strongly suspect that they would indeed have a dual purpose, with part of that duality being to gether information.  In my mind, the other part of that duality might be to disseminate disinformation.

Your mileage may vary.


[ Parent ]
follow-up questions
What purpose would disseminating disinformation serve in the midst of a pandemic? And how would that stand the test of reality? And would fear of that potential bar contact with CDCor HHS or NIH?

[ Parent ]
Disinformation
can be so simple as the equivalent of "quick, look over there - do not look at what is happening here".  I think it's an approach used quite frequently to divert attention.

As far as purposes, other than the obvious diversion of attention, I can't really speak to anyone's purposes.

I don't know why it should instill fear of any sort, certainly nothing that would interfere with contact with any agency such as those you named.


[ Parent ]
I don't know
It's very much a perception thing, so as you say everyone's mileage will differ.

I personally think that by the very nature of their job any official of any significance is always going to have a boatload of stuff that is not for public consumption, such that for better or worse they will have developed a habit of being careful with their language, 'sanitizing' what they say, so to speak, as a matter of routine.

And then there will be times when such issues are even more important, such as in a national emergency, for reasons that may or may not have anything to do with us.

So, No, I don't expect officials to tell me the whole truth and nothing but the truth.  But I expect them to not tell blatant falsehoods and, more importantly, exhibit a certain amount of good faith in communication.  How one determines that good faith is more of an ongoing process and often (but not always) subjective.  

For example, the consistent refusal to answer any questions that have anything to do with the Feds directly informing the public about the pandemic risk (or lack thereof, or adequate reasons why) is to me a lack of good faith.  OTOH, they have demonstrated some admirable changes in approach and attitude in the 2 years that I have been observing this.

So, yes, I will advocate for more openness, involving the public especially parents directly, etc etc, and I will continue to scrutinize their behavior and hold them accountable for issues that are important and remain unresolved.  But I won't tar everyone with the same brush, nor treat all officials or all actions as equivalent.

And the same for other governments, according to their stage of planning and public engagement.  That's just my mileage though... ;-)


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Speaking of good faith
I, too, have never expected TPTB to tell me the whole truth and nothing but the truth about anything, but it's been exceedingly difficult to reconcile their early warnings ("YOYO") with their lack of follow-through in public communication to PREPARE.  It's confusing, demoralizing to those of us who need credibility when explaining to and encouraging others to ready their families, and in the end, it makes me resentful that I have to be "own my own" in this endeavor.  And I sure don't feel very trusting, which leads me to this question: When the newbies arrive at the gate, how will we advise them regarding volunteerism during the crisis?

In my humble opinion, TPTB have not earned the right to issue a call for volunteers, simply because the public has not been properly informed of the true nature of the beast we may be facing, nor have they ensured that the pool of citizens from which volunteers will be drawn has any understanding of what "being prepared" actually requires.
In fact, my distrust lies in what I perceive is their utter cluelessness as to how difficult it is to pass through the adjustment reaction, then absorb the information needed to begin the preparation process. Plain old ordinary Neighbor John and Neighbor Jane are going to need time to get it together. And someone's robbing them of that time.

In my experience, the vast majority of volunteers during a disaster of any kind, appear to be people who are associated with faith-based communities.  We know that religious leaders were provided with toolkits for planning purposes and guidance for their communities, what, nearly a year ago, but have any of you seen or heard any sign of that guidance filtering down where it will do some good?  Did a memo go out with the toolkits telling leaders to delay dissemination until we go to Stage 5?  Don't want to panic anyone, ya know.    

For the record, I wholeheartedly support and honor those who do volunteer to help in any capacity, in any emergency; I have the good fortune to know and live amongst some of the most unselfish and caring people on the planet, so it's hard for me to suggest that we should prepare a wiki page advising those good neighbors NOT to volunteer until TPTB have done the only job we've asked of them:  INFORM AND EDUCATE THE PUBLIC.  Until my neighbors fully comprehend what a pandemic is likely to do to our communities, I believe our only guidance should be, ISOLATE AND SHELTER YOUR FAMILY. Yes, I know we will desperately want volunteers as the situation progresses, but they deserve the right to know, before they offer themselves, what the risks are and how they can serve with as little danger to themselves and their families as is humanly possible.

Off my soapbox now.  I don't recall seeing this issue discussed before and I feel sad that it's something I feel needs to be brought up.  We've seen so much kindness and compassion from strangers and neighbors alike in the aftermath of Katrina and other storms; someone has to speak up, for it's the very same people who will be facing down virus particles as they go about the tasks they volunteered for.  

 


[ Parent ]
good points
When the newbies arrive at the gate, how will we advise them regarding volunteerism during the crisis?

In my humble opinion, TPTB have not earned the right to issue a call for volunteers, simply because the public has not been properly informed of the true nature of the beast we may be facing, nor have they ensured that the pool of citizens from which volunteers will be drawn has any understanding of what "being prepared" actually requires.

From a practical point of view, volunteerism will come from trusted sources locally... hospitals and local public health have not relinquished the moral authority to request volunteers.

As to faith-based groups, and community groups, LDS and Lions and Red cross all have done good things on their web pages and in person to call for prepping. they'd be among the leaders for calling for people to act together. The others, I can't say but I'm not in a position to know.

Others in authority need to do more, to get the public psychologically as well as logistically ready. It's a slow process and we are not there yet.

Politically? Obama acknowledges the threat of a pandemic in a statement on the U.S. Visit of Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd:

In Asia, the quality of our alliance and scope of our diplomatic partnership shine brightly. We both face a rapidly evolving security order defined by traditional and non-traditional security problems. These include: changing regional power dynamics and rivalries, territorial disputes, resource competition, terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, failed states, environmental degradation, and pandemic diseases. Managing this complex blend of security challenges requires leveraging both bilateral and multilateral mechanisms.
Clinton has done so previously (Q 12). McCain? Not so much. But after the Nov. election, things will certainly be different (not better, different).  

[ Parent ]
Thanks, Dem, for the reminders of positive achievements.
I'm the last person who will criticize any agency or organization who takes the initiative on preparedness issues.  I think the economic bad news we are constantly being bombarded with is affecting my sense of vulnerability and inability to have any control over what happens to myself and my loved ones, more just lately than any other time to date.  Sigh.  I am disappointed, too, because I really expected religious organizations, in particular, would take on this cause with zeal, because that's what they do!  And brilliantly, I might add.  I believed we would see LOCAL pan-flu teams forming, the establishment of shelters and foodbanks, possibly dedicated hotlines for congregates' needs, etc.  And, at the very least, the formation of prayer groups which would open the door for knowledge gleaning and sharing. Instead, this is all I have managed to find:

http://www.pandemicflu.ms.gov/...


[ Parent ]
yes, I agree
but it's been exceedingly difficult to reconcile their early warnings ("YOYO") with their lack of follow-through in public communication to PREPARE.

I'm only left with the conclusion (or speculation) that some very serious political red lines were drawn somewhere.  Today, cos of what was posted on the news thread, I went back to look up the whole fiasco with the US Consulate advisory to US citizens in Hong Kong to stock up for 12 weeks, and how it was changed and retracted.

This is almost 18 months later.  Sadly I don't believe those red lines have moved.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
however, Swann
also very sadly, it isn't confusing at all.  It's been consistent.  The US government is pretty open and forthcoming on some issues, and then there are others that are absolute NO GO areas.  It's understandable, given that's all how governments work.  But that doesn't make it ethical or acceptable.

We'll just have to keep working at it.  But, No, it's not confusing at all.  ;-(


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Agreed! Thanks Susan!
I spent nearly 25 years working within the Fed. Gov, so I certainly do understand. And....I'm afraid I'm probably a bit like the citizens Jack Nicholson refers to when he yells, "The truth??  You can't handle the truth!!" So, probably just as well. <~:

Okay...maybe not confusing.  Let's just call it regrettable.


[ Parent ]
as for gathering information
again just speaking only for myself.  I already assume that if tptb wanted to find out anything about me, there's no way I can prevent that anyhow.  LOL

Like I said, this is just me, and I don't expect anyone else to think like that.


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
I didn't mean to imply
that I thought anyone would attempt to gather information about anyone - more the information about things that we'd gladly share anyway (I understand a lot about the way sociopolitical systems work, but I don't understand why they do the things they do!).

Like you, I've always figured that anyone who wanted to know anything about me already knew it, or was perfectly capable of finding it out with no problem.  One thing about getting older, I think - you just don't much care about that kind of thing.  ;)


[ Parent ]
;-) n/t



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
that's so true!!!!!
(I understand a lot about the way sociopolitical systems work, but I don't understand why they do the things they do!).

I'm pretty familiar with American politics and I have the same observation. ;-P


[ Parent ]
text only

just one idea independent of previous discussion,
I don't want to read this long threads.

Are there plans to use an emergence-compressed internet, no pictures,
no advertisements, no html, only text ?

So, you pay for bandwidth. And it's delayed, so you download
packaged information say once dayly, process it offline,
and upload packaged information once dayly too,
with directives to what databases,forums,webpages
it has to go.

Assuming bandwidth and realtime is the problem in a pandemic.
(is it ?)

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies


what the providers will do
is an open question. And even though you don't wish to read everyone else's comments, I'm willing to read yours.

[ Parent ]
can I ask everyone to please note
the following list of remarks, where Dem (and myself) repeatedly suggested that this diary is for the purpose of discussing options to help others ASSUMING the internet stays up, even if intermittently.  And why we need to have the space for that discussion.

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

If you cannot make such an assumption, and cannot contribute to this discussion, please may I request that all discussions about whether the internet will stay up be moved to a different diary here.

Thank you for your cooperation!


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


sorry, wrong link
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...


All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
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