What is your PPF? 4-16-08 to.....

I've bumped up a notch

I'm not exactly sure why.  It's more of a subconscious thing than any particular news event.  The only thing I can think it might be is the world food situation.  A perfect storm could be forming.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

---

by: Oremus @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 12:27:45 PM UTC

Perfect Storm

I thought the very same thing.  To the degree that I have stepped up my prepping by buying extra rice, beans and other non-perishables.  

I'm most concerned about the poorer and underdeveloped countries than I am about the west.  

---

by: WitchMisspelled @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 13:39:10 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Cranking up

Me, too. It is, in part, the world food situation, the export restrictions, the failed US winter wheat crops, and the rising price of ALL groceries. Fuel prices are frightening. The situation in South Korea is creepy. It DOES feel like a "perfect storm". Then I hear reports that "someone" is going to attack Iran between May 1 and June 30. The Israelis says if the US won't do it, then they will. It just seems like the winds are swirling faster and faster. I find it calming to check my preps, add a few things and go over my plans ... again and again.

---

by: Andrzejek @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 03:34:52 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

EXACTLY....

I have started really realizing that I need to prep for more than a pandemic- I have a sneaky feeling that other  'bad things' are coming , too. In a very guilty way I almost wonder if it is 'time' for a pandemic- to keep the population down (harder to have babies when everyone is ill... I don't look forward to deaths, just a reduction in pregnancies)

---

by: dogsma @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 13:16:09 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Perfect storm

http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/...

North Korea faces a looming food crisis due to floods last year, the U.N. food agency said.

Food prices at North Korean markets have doubled while state rations are dwindling, the World Food Program said Wednesday.

Key donors such as China and South Korea are not expected to send as much direct assistance to the North as they have in the past.

[Snip]

Jean-Pierre de Margerie, WFP's country director in North Korea, said by telephone from Pyongyang that North Korean officials were admitting for the first time that the state ration system -- already erratic in providing food to the country's 23 million people -- was breaking down.

"It's a bit of a perfect storm shaping up," he said.

Prices of staple foods have doubled in the past year in the capital. A kilogram (2.2 pounds) of rice now costs about a third of a typical worker's monthly salary of 6,000 won (about US$2), WFP said.

[Continues]
http://www.cnn.com/2008/WORLD/...

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

---

by: Oremus @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 14:40:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

For those worried that peak oil is on it's way

http://www.guardian.co.uk/busi...

Surprise discovery off coast of Brazil may confound the oil and gas doom-mongers· Claims that offshore field is world's third biggest

cont.

It will be a while before anyone can drill it but, if it's there, it takes the pressure off.

---

by: UK - Bird @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 15:26:03 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

UN chief warns world must urgently increase food production

The cost of food has increased by around 40 percent since mid-2007 worldwide, and the strain has caused riots and protests in countries like Cameroon, Burkina Faso, Haiti and Egypt.

We must make no mistake, the problem is big

"One thing is certain, the world has consumed more than it has produced" over the last three years, he said.

http://www.breitbart.com/artic...

---

by: indypokerboy41 @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 01:08:10 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

IMF head warns food shortage could topple governments

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) warned Friday that soaring world food prices can have dire consequences, such as toppling governments and even triggering wars.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn told France's Europe-1 radio that the price rises that set off rioting in Haiti, Egypt and elsewhere were an "extremely serious" problem.

http://www.jamaica-gleaner.com...

---

by: indypokerboy41 @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 01:11:51 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Using the last analogy - itching to do some manuvers.

  Hearing of plans and seeing H5N1 spread I'm interested in doing what DemFromCT did - take some of these plans for a test drive.

 The Doctor has pointed out how some of the Civil Defense stuff was bogus. I would like to see the plans tested. At least do a walk through.

Kobie

---

by: Kobie @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 15:31:53 PM UTC

I have stayed at 4 for 3 months now.

Here is why:

1.  Cost of basic food is going up by a minimum 30% this year.  So either you pay more or buy less.

2.  Cost of energy in all forms is getting hard to find.  All the independent gas stations here in my county are now gone.  Only the major brands remain.

3.  Reports from Asia will make this a bitter year for H5N1 with more combinations happening in more places.

4.  The weather is the worst spring I have ever seen in 50+ years!  The farmers cannot plant yet since we still get cold fronts through.  Normally they planted over 30 days ago.  So no two crop season this year.

5.  Last is the lack of interest by the general public and Government at the grass roots level.  They just do not want this worry, hey have enough with work and cost of living going up so fast.

If it continues we will not be prepared for an emergency or disaster. I will see a need to move up to 5 by the end of summer if the situation continues as is.

RICH-FL

  No warning - no way to fight - no way to win!  
We need help in our local communities to survive. Remember that quote:    "...No man is an island..."

---

by: RICHARD-FL @ Wed Apr 16, 2008 at 22:15:30 PM UTC

Up to a 4.5......

for several reasons:

The posturing in Indo bothers me.  I feel like they are getting desperate to make sure they have some kind of access to a vaccine.

The continued lies and propaganda from China.  

India following the chinese example of deny, deny deny until caught.  

---

by: indypokerboy41 @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 01:59:07 AM UTC

And even when

caught, deny, deny, deny.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

---

by: cottontop @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 02:14:05 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Lower than last time

Last time I was alarmed at some of the stuff going on in China.  Nothing has changed.  I feel like we've just plateaued to a new, higher level so my PPF is settling back down.  Doesn't mean I shouldn't be more worried, it's just a consequence for me of prolonged anxiety.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

---

by: Tempest @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 06:21:56 AM UTC

Up a bit

Due to the H2H case in China, and the recent few since the end of 2007; also, the world food situation.  As I've said before, historically, famines often precede pandemics, or maybe it's just bad luck/coincidence, but I once read a book on disasters in human history, and read this (also, wasn't there a lot of crop failure before the various bubonic plagues in the Middle Ages?).

And, I know this isn't scientific, but: gut feeling.

---

by: WhiteSwan @ Thu Apr 17, 2008 at 23:12:09 PM UTC

4.5 maybe?

I'm not exactly sure what PPF is, but all I know is that last summer I already started prepping water storage - because our state was in a drought.  Then late last year I started buying in bulk because of rising food costs (double whammy - my husband owns a restaurant - higher food costs/lower sales)

Researching bulk foods led me to some sites about threats like terrorism so I started stocking some for that scenario. Then looking at buying masks for terrorism, I learn  about bird flu.  By far this is the biggest threat to me, and I am pretty upset this hasn't been making news in the US every day!  People shouldn't have to learn about the severity of this finding sites by accident.  It's crazy.

The news of the human 2 human transmission really put me over the top telling DH we needed to stop talking and start buying.  

---

by: preppie @ Sat Apr 19, 2008 at 03:09:05 AM UTC

PPF=Personal (sphincter) Pucker Factor

I translate it as: how scared are you?  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

---

by: Jane @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 15:43:08 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Preppie, - glad you see the real world return on prepping investment

Preppie,

 Hi. Welcome. Resteraunts have been hit hard by rising wheat, egg and milk prices. Corn is to blame for some of that because more Corn and less wheat was planted. That and a bad winter wheat harvest.

 Sorry to hear about customer sales falling off. I hope you find some good ideas here and always feel free to ask questions.

 When a school has to be opened to take care of the sick I hope you can a crontract to feed those working. The idea of people SIP at home for three months must not be a good thing for your business.

Kobie

---

by: Kobie @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 17:38:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Thanks Kobie

Well, the food situation depends on the electricity since most things are refrigerated.  I'm guessing DH will insist early on that his employees will not come in - and also go ahead and divide up his inventory among them so it won't spoil.

I have a feeling corp will urge all the stores to shut down - they are fast food chicken restaurants!

---

by: preppie @ Sun Apr 20, 2008 at 20:15:21 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Fast food chicken - pr mess

Preppie,

 Tyson has and others have already started doing thier PR campaine. So far the words look good - but they are just words.

 Companies can either get ahead or behind the curve. I am hoping they get ahead as markets have demonstrated what anyone can figure out - H5N1 drives chicken prices down and other food prices up. (See India, et al)

 The refrideration thing is hard. The company may shut down.

  Best wishes. Prep early - prep often :o)

Kobie

---

by: Kobie @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 11:07:04 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

PR

The company DH's restaurant is associated with had a lot to say about BF back in 05-06.  Their spokesman is also head of their food/safety division.  He is an ex CDC guy and he stated that he felt pandemic wasn't a matter of if but when and that every department was working on contingency plans. But like I said, that was a while back.  

---

by: preppie @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 13:34:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Knowledge is power

Preppie,

 Sigh, Pandemics happen. The size, scale and time is hard to predict. We can have a large problem like SARS on a small scale or a small problem like flu on a planet wide scale.

 I'm glad safety person for the parent company worked at CDC. Do note a few months ago a Vice Pres for CitiCorp at a Pandemic meeting said "A problme surfaced when we relized we had COOP and contigency plans for all the VP. CIO, CFO, etc but no plan for the people who actually fill ATM machines or are the tellers."

  It was an eye opener for me.

 As someone serving chicken you are in a great spot to educate. You have a place where you can put a sign with PandemicFlu.gov, ReadyMom.org, Fluwiki websites so others can go and look if they want.

  IMHO, it is not only good to prep employees to reduce their personal problems so they are not absent but to prep customers to they are not absent either :o) !!!

  Best wishes.

Kobie

---

by: Kobie @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 16:48:37 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Welcome preppie

Just wanted to say hi to a fellow southern

---

by: NC Seeking @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 14:58:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm at 3

I think I'm more nervous for my son, who's stationed in S. Korea. He said no one on base is saying anything about what's going on, bird flu wise (culling, elevated alert level, S. Korean troops getting involved). He said they get their chicken from Tyson, flown in from the states. But he said he didn't even think about the possibility of it in duck. He loves duck. He promised me he would stay away from it. You just can't protect them once they've grown. My daughter is traveling to India for 2 months, working with the poor. My middle son is shipping to Afghanistan soon. Yikes.

---

by: Mina @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 15:27:17 PM UTC

Hi Mina, I sympathize

My children are the same.  They seem to go to the most dangerous places.  Every year.  



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 15:54:11 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Mina - wow

Mina,

 Alot of logistics and ground folks are shipping out to Afganistan. If you can, let us know what they they are being told.

 Best wishes.
Kobie

---

by: Kobie @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 16:51:59 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

The one going to

Afganistan said he's sticking to the MREs and bottled water. He hasn't left yet.  

---

by: Mina @ Mon Apr 21, 2008 at 18:05:47 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

re:ppf

I've actually slowed down on my prepping the last few months, but the Olympics in China are causing me the re-think this.  I'm actually getting a little nervous for the summer.  I decided over the weekend to start again and top off my preps.. they are a little low.  I also think that the price food and toiletries will be going up as the price of gas continues to increase.  I also feel like someone said above, it may not only be a pandemic that we need to worry about.  But my main concern right now is the Olympics.  All those people coming back to the United States....If they go to a wet market, couldn't someone theoretically bring the virus back on their shoes??? And if it does mutate to a H2h2h form...I can't even think about it.  My pff is higher than the last six months...

---

by: Ruth @ Tue Apr 22, 2008 at 23:23:54 PM UTC

I used to be concerned

about the mixing of large numbers of people.  2 years ago, I was very worried about the Haj, for the same reasons.  Since then, the virus has spread to > 60 countries.  There's been plenty of opportunities for the virus to be in contact with people, but it hasn't caused a pandemic yet.  You need to worry about large gatherings increasing the chance of a pandemic if and only if the virus had limited access to humans and that such gatherings significantly increased the bird-human interaction.  That is manifestly not the case here.

I'm not saying it won't cause a pandemic.  I'm saying that at this point (as compared to 2 years ago) the limiting factor that is preventing the virus from becoming pandemic is no longer human exposure to birds (since millions have been and are continuing to be exposed all over the world) but some factors intrinsic to the virus (and, less likely, the host) itself.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

---

by: SusanC @ Wed Apr 23, 2008 at 03:34:07 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

my ppf is up

well now that Bronco Bill sent out a notice ......but the swan is still upright....

I am now up to 7.

This Swine flu has me concerned.  I am not sure it is the "big one" but it sure could be bad.
I figure I still have a week or two ...

I am not at my 24 hour prep stage but my WHat if you had a week or two list.
I did top off all the cars, had my propane tank filled, and filled my 500 gallon water tank.

I also have gone out and bought a lot of near non-parishable items... TP, Kleenex, salt, spices, flour, sugar, gatoraid, dried instant potatoes, canned milk, bottled water, corn bread mix, canned tomatoes, matches, soap, bleach, paper goods,hand sanitizer, disinfection items, plastic bags, tuna, canned chicken, spam, ...those type of items.

Put I also got some long keeping items - extra bag of potatoes, onions, and some of that whey protein.

My guess is that it will take at least a week to hit here from most anywhere - because here is a remote house in a forest.  I should be OK either way things go.

Be Prepared

---

by: DennisC @ Sat Apr 25, 2009 at 22:04:22 PM UTC