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Weather Alert: Hanna and Ike

by: Tempest

Tue Sep 02, 2008 at 11:44:16 AM EDT


Diary to watch developments with Hanna and Ike, Atlantic storms with the potential to impact land.

Open forum.  Please all feel free to share your news and views!  Ask questions of Tempest or anyone.

Official Info from Hurricane Center:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

I'll be a little busy this week. Please follow DailyKos' discussions for detailed updates. Feel free to discuss here though. All residents on gulf coast should remain vigilant. Model consistency still poor, but are currently suggesting Texas or even Mexico landfall Sat.


DailyKos' Tuesday write-up - excellent discussion from millwx here.  I'm rather impressed! -Tempest

NHC track for IKE:


title=
Tempest :: Weather Alert: Hanna and Ike


Auto-updated Model runs for Ike


title=

TCHP GOM as of 9/4 (post-Gustav), potential for maintenance of intense hurricanes
title=


Auto-updated Current Satellite for Ike


title=



- Tempest

 
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Weather Alert: Hanna and Ike | 135 comments
Hanna, Ike, and comment about Josephine (to come)
It's a real parade out there right now.

It's going to be important to watch Hanna in the next 36 hours or so.  Many models show Hanna moving towards the northwest from the get-go.  However, Hanna has been drifting showly south and southwest and this might make a difference for Florida.  The major features that should influence Hanna's track are well-agreed upon, but where Hanna is when those features kick in will influence how far west Hanna's track is towards the north and west.  High pressure should develop to the north of Hanna, and this high pushes westward after Hanna begins tracking north.  If Hanna becomes stronger, there's a chance that the outflow could actually enhance the high to it's northeast and could cause the storm to deflect a little more to the west than the models show.

The NHC's track has Hanna leaving the Bahamas towards the South Carolina coast but doesn't leave much room for Hanna to initially move southwest.  With the consideration of its initial southward motion, and possible enhancement of the ridge (high), I believe their track represents the easternmost solution.  There's a chance that Hanna will scrape the eastern Florida coast on its way up north towards the Carolinas.  A landfall there should occur in about 4 days, and Florida could be feeling the effects about a day sooner if it does indeed get close enough to the coast.  The track looks a lot like Floyd's track but farther west.  After the landfall, it appears that Hanna will cruise up the eastern seaboard and may be fairly near the coast all the way up to New England as it moves around the periphery of the high.  It should affect a lot of people.  There's some time to watch what Hanna does in the near-term.

As far as intensity goes, there are no major impediments for strengthening.  I believe this will hit the coast of South Carolina as a hurricane, and a trajectory along the gulf stream current could make Hanna quite strong.  A major hurricane (cat 3+) is a possibility.  

Ike will be influenced by the same ridge.  As it moves westward, so does the high.  This should keep Ike on a westward track, and it should end up passing by the area that Hanna is at now.  It appears as though Ike will push straight west and may deflect slightly south towards Cuba and continue west.  This looks like it will be another landfalling storm.  I can't say at this point where it will end up for sure.  I need to watch the models a little longer before I get a feel for that.

A tropical depression that looks like it will become Josephine should get picked lifted northward as a strong low pressure region, currently off the Canadian maritimes, moves east and makes a weakness in the ridge in a few days.  It should be "a fish."

I'll be watching these systems now that I can turn my attention away from Gustav.  That one was sure hard not to watch.  

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

WOW Tempest!
This is great. THANKS for starting this diary!!

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

[ Parent ]
A "fish"?
Does this mean a tropical storm that never makes landfall?
[ Parent ]
Yes Aloha n/t


Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
Hurricane track
 Intellicast:

 Another hurricane tracking
http://www.intellicast.com/Sto...

 For pandemic preps its good to look at what other's did after the storm that they did not do before.

 One is Children's hospital in New Orleans.
In 2005 Childrens hospital planned to do and did this.
[snip]
To ensure the hospital could remain functional during and after a storm, the hospital dug a well and built a pump capable of supporting the roof-based air conditioning system, sewerage and showers on campus even if the city water system fails - as happened during Katrina. It also increased food stocks, linens and medical supplies from a two week to three week supply. Because communication failures plagued the city, the hospital invested in land-line, satellite telephone and internet systems and an 800 megahertz radio to remain in touch with the state's emergency command center and expanded its Web site's emergency communication capabilities. In addition, employees and patients approved to be on campus during an emergency will be required to wear special, hospital-issued identification and arranged for units of the New Orleans police and fire departments to be stationed on campus in advance of a coming storm.
[snip]
Source http://www.chnola.org/content/...

In 2008 they actually faired well, along with others
Source:
http://www.usatoday.com/weathe...

 Hence - IMHO - Pandemic prep are not out of the question but a matter of good planning.

 I assume all hospitals are so equipped. Its only logical ;-)

Kobie

Kobie--never assume!! :-)
I assume all hospitals are so equipped. Its only logical ;-)

Not all, and probably very few, are as well equipped for emergencies as NOLA Children's Hospital has become in the last 3 years...at a tremendous dollar cost.

I work with people who set up and maintain the radio communications where I work...SatNet radios are not cheap, and are generally on a regular billing cycle whether they are used or not.

[ Parent ]
Not cheap but.....
Bronco Bill,

  I've thought alot about your post. Dollar Tree and several gas stations use Satalight communications for their credit card authorization and computer communication.

 There must be a way to make SatNet work. Either VoIP or just TCP/IP as a bulk purchase.

 InMarSat is not cheap but there must be some where a local PBX can be connected to analog or VoIP phones.

 I'm still looking and trying to find out more.

 Sat phones as a back up to land lines and 800 Mhz for local communication.

  Low Power FM for neighborhood info.

Kobie
 

[ Parent ]
"Dollar Tree and several gas stations"
No sir. Dollar tree, most grocery stores, furniture stores, gas stations, nearly any smallretail establishment uses old fashioned dial-up 56K modems or DSL lines from each terminal. Some of the more recently installed (post 2002), high-end terminals may use a high-speed T1 or T3 line, but I can guarantee that very few, if any, use a satellite connection. Weather, brush/trees, slow upload/download speeds, high costs---all of these hinder satellite communcations to this day.
It's getting cheaper, but copper/fiber is still the way to sell goods.

You may find, in your area, that some stores are using satcom for their transactions, but I'm willing to bet that if you talk to the folks who had it installed---they're not happy with it!

As for satellite radios, I work for the state. They tend to have extra money that they have to spend, even though they cry broke. Emergency communications are where all the focus is right now with hurricane season upon us, and SatPhones were the next level to move up to. At a cost of around $500 per month, per radio. My agency has 12 radios placed around the state to follow any public emergencies as they happen. As a volunteer, I'm part of that network.

[ Parent ]
important point from Walrus in the last Gustav diary
watch the aftermath: folks who are mad about being evacuated, how the authorities explain what happened, etc.

Important lessons to be learned.

...
Nagin was interviewed and is now saying that he should rather have said "bad sister of storms" instead.  I'm just happy they took the threat seriously, even realizing that they would get flack.  

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
Too late
When he said "mother of all storms" I was concerned this could happen. While understandable and justified at the time, it could lend itself to crying wolf, and getting people 'numbed' to calls to evacuate.

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.
[ Parent ]
aftermath
I'm wondering what the reaction will be, by all those people who are ready to come back home but aren't being allowed to.   (They are sleeping in cars, have run out of money and gas, etc.)

And some of them HAVE to be thinking, "I could have stayed home" because in the end the damage to a lot of areas wasn't that great.  

This situation might make them less likely to evacuate the next time.  (People always remember the LAST disaster.)



GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.

[ Parent ]
I've thought about that too ACM...
Because this storm wasn't another Katrina, they probably feel "cheated" because Gustav didn't make it worth the upheval they went through. It has to be worth it in their view or they won't do it again. I can't chastise that kind of thinking because it is expensive to move your family to hotel/motels, gas for driving, food expenses. I'm sure alot of people had to use saved momey for this tempt. move. And not knowing how long they were going to be away added to their stress. Some probably only had enough money for a couple of days.

I think it is safe to say that alot of people will stay the next time, and will be prepared for that stay. I do believe some of these people will get their preps going after this.  

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

[ Parent ]
Urgent - Storms - need advice
I've just learnt that we're getting nasty storms tonight with wind gusts of 120 kilometers per hour with hail and heavy rains. Last time was in 1999 and I did not have this house. I have taken this afternoon off to secure objects in my garden. I'll have about 4 hours to do something and heavy rain is forecast to start during that time. The house/roof is very solid. I am concerned about:

- the aviary (23 cockatiels including 3 chicks in nest). It's square, built with metal poles with the base in a piece of buried cement, fenced and partly boarded up. Roof is simply light metal bars with fence and a big tent-like cover. Size is like a cube with 2.50 meters on all sides. Is this aviary likely to withstand such winds? Do I capture the birds and bring them inside my house and lock them in my bathroom?

- flooding in the cellar as it contains my brand new heating system and my wine collection. Cellar is underneath the house with outside access by a 45 degree angled slope along the house and no outlet for water. When we have heavy rains, there's a small amount that gets into it. Tonight it's going to be much worse. What is the easiest and fastest way to condemn the door at the bottom of the slope and make it as waterproof as possible? I have a few sand bags, countless of bags of cement and tile glue which I'm willing to pile up putting them at the top of the slope, and some tarps, even if it wastes all cement bags etc. (I have plenty of electric tools).

- most of my windows have wooden heavy shutters, but not all; I won't have time to board the ones without. From a French official government site, they say to use duct tape and make two crosses both on the windows themselves and on the outer frames like this ¦X¦ - is that OK?

- cars - with the house occupants at the moment we have 5 cars to park and the garden is full of young and old trees, and it being the summer, they are not trimmed. If we park the cars in the big open-air public car park, would that be better than parking them on the property? Or would flying objects in an open space be more dangerous/damaging than in my garden? Should I rope my young trees one to another?

What should be my priorities in that small time?

Many thanks all of you.

I'll be logged on for the next 45 minutes if someone is on and can make suggestions - after that I have to go home.

Let me be blind to wicked text, deaf to wicked words, mute to wicked comments.

Frenchie Girl
Fill containers with clean water if you don't already have water stored.
Cut the power to the new heating system off, I'd think, if you expect flooding.
Keep to the interior/center of the house during the storm and don't open the doors to go out during the storm.
I wouldn't park the cars in the garden where big tree limbs may fall on them. I'd park them in the car park but not near its edges.
I'd bring the birds indoors.  I don't think their shelter will be adequate, and they can find no other.  
Tape the windows if there is time. If you have to stay in a room with windows, be sure to tape or shutter those windows.


[ Parent ]
Hmm.
Red Cross says taping windows doesn't do a lot of good.  If you have to be in a room with a window, I'd shutter that window, if there's time.

I've been through a couple of hurricanes, but when I was a kid. The winds were much stronger than 120 kph.

[ Parent ]
InKy - Thanks a zillion!
Leaving the office in 20 minutes... I've been in storms before, but only in very secure buildings anyway, not in an old house and garden, that's why I'm concerned. We only get those once every 10 years or so, it'll be my first as an owner. Needless to say, our PTB/internet forecasts are "depressing" with no substantial info like you have in the US. Many thanks again.

Let me be blind to wicked text, deaf to wicked words, mute to wicked comments.
[ Parent ]
I'll be thinking of you today!
Please let us know how you fare.  An old house and garden have no doubt weathered such storms before ;-).
[ Parent ]
"What should be my priorities in that small time?"
Above all else, save yourself. Second, save the wine!!  ;-)

FG--Good luck to you and yours...stay safe.

[ Parent ]
Solid old house
but fragile aviary (was temporary) and vulnerable cellar (not finished the access works) and battered old shed - we'll see. Off I go. Thanks!

Let me be blind to wicked text, deaf to wicked words, mute to wicked comments.
FrenchieGirl, all I could think
of when you said "bring the birds in the bathroom" was

"don't forget to put something on the floor!" LOL!

Good luck and stay safe!

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

[ Parent ]
Hope you've fared OK.
Let us know, when you are back online.  
[ Parent ]
Some Links -
To the French storms FrenchieGirl was preparing for:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/eur...

http://news.bbc.co.uk/cbbcnews...

www.EmergencyHomePreparation.org -- A 'card-catalog' style of prepping information.   -

[ Parent ]
good luck FrenchieGirl
Hope you and the birdies stay warm and dry!

Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little- Edmund Burke
[ Parent ]
French storms - Return on experience
Hi all, many thanks for your wishes, I'm safe, the birds and the wine too! It wasn't as bad as I'd feared but it was a good practice run. A few things got turned over or moved with the wind, but on the whole, everything was safe.

I'll share a few details if it can be of use to others.

- 4 hours is nowhere near enough to get ready for a big storm. Especially in summer as garden furniture and flower pots are out (in winter it's all stored away). Especially more so when you have works going on on the property (tools, bricks, sheets of glass, pipes, buckets, etc.).

- Ojectives: secure the aviary and the cellar, windows.

-- Aviary:

I was a little reluctant to bring the birds in for all sorts of reasons. I decided to run the chance to leave them outside if we could reasonably secure the aviary. We nailed planks all around the aviary save for a small opening for air; then we filled big containers with the heaviest pieces of concrete we could find and placed them around the aviary, tied strong ropes to the containers and tied the aviary with the ropes. That may not have been ok for a hurricane, but was OK for a big storm. I could not have done it alone, we were 4 people. As for the well-being of the birds, this is a species with a fragile heart and they can litteraly die of fright. When this occurred to me, I came back to the aviary under heavy rain, to install a bedside table lamp inside, so they would have light to see to perch if they got frightened and flew madly because of thunder. This was connected to a rain proof cable, which in turn was connected direct to the main fuse box.

--- Lesson number one: if you keep animals on your property in a building away from the main house, you can ensure well in advance that there is a safe electrical wire in case you need it. I did not have a permanent connection but luckily, I had a secure weather-proof external extension wire that already had the plugs on both sides. I only connected it once I was back inside next to the fuse box, but I had gotten drenched laying it and covering it with bricks, and had only a pair of uninsulated shoes - what I did was dangerous because I was still wet when I connected it to the fuse box, even though the wire and fuse boxes are earth-wired. The box is not directly in the house, so even if I had gone to the main part of the house, dried myself and come back to plug it in, I would still have been wet with the rain. So: for the future, arrange to have a safe permanent buried connection from the house to the sheds/aviary, etc.

--- Lesson number two: in case of a pandemic, having an aviary is bound to attract attention to your house/garden, and you can't shut up the birds. If you were to bring the birds inside during a pandemic, you'd still have to make sure they cannot be heard from the outside. Depending on the species, that might be difficult.

--- Lesson number three: ropes, ropes and ropes again. Keep some, of all sizes and lengths, and blades to cut them. I was lucky, I had long strong nylon ones in the garden shed. If I hadn't I couldn't have secured the aviary, and ropes weren't in my list of preps. I couldn't at first find the blades which must have been buried in the mess I have in the diy corner. So, improve "tidyness".

- Cellar:

-- That was easier. We raised any tool/objects that could be damaged and which were on the floor on to the existing shelves. The wine appeared to me to be high enough already. We piled up heavy big bags of cultivating compost at the top of the slope. I switched off the heating as recommended, but I forgot to switch off the lights when I last went out. This was OK and there was only a little water there. As the ground of the cellar is soil, water will slowly be absorbed. A wild cat got trapped at the bottom end of the cellar (not anywhere in danger), it was miaowing because it would not jump over or in the water on the ground and I heard its cries when I had gone back out for the birds. I did not dare going over the bags to go down the slippery slope to get the cat out and I decided it was in no immediate danger.

--- Lesson: don't forget to switch lights off, one never knows if there's going to be any water dripping on the bulbs or switches. Make sure no animal gets trapped behind you.

- Windows:

-- Closing the shutters: some were difficult as the weather had slightly deformed the wood.

-- Windows without shutters: on the groundfloor, we lined up old doors along the windows and secured them with heavy concrete pieces, stones and bags of planting soil. Windows on the other floors and under the roof: there was nothing to be done in the little time that we had. The ones on the north and south side were at little risk, as the gale was blowing from West. Tenant on north side was absent. Tenant in roof with roof windows was unwilling to duct-tape them, and besides they are on the north slope of the roof.

-- Veranda: no shutters, on the first floor: we could do nothing to protect this part of the house.

--- Lessons: check shutters at least twice yearly, more if there are extreme of weather in unusual years. Get proper planks like you all have in hurricane areas, size them, make the holes for the bolts etc. and store ready for use at a moment's notice. Keep a key of all lodgings regardless of privacy issues. Veranda: I can think of nothing that could have been done to protect this. We're talking about windows on a height of 1.20 on a length of 13 meters plus another twice 3 meters, which are on a metal structure and not easy to reach as the veranda is placed on the first floor. Nailing/screwing boards there would be (a) very expensive in wood/screws; (b) likely to weaken the metal structure. That means that I should remove any object likely to be damaged in that room (I did for a few things, but not all).

--- In case of a pandemic, and supposing we get a few moment's notice (which we all hope we'll do), transforming the house to shut it to the world will take more than a few hours, even if all preparatory work is done.

- Cars:

-- One of my lodger's car was broken down: impossible to move. He used a huge tarp to protect it, and piled up bags of planting soil on it - I hope this was not too heavy for the roof of the car to cave in. In a bigger storm, that would have been a no-no.

-- Another one lodger couldn't care less - in fact said that if it was damaged, the insurance would replace the car (I doubt that it would, given the car is old and battered)

-- I moved a friend's car to a covered market square in town - when we saw the cover (metal sheeting) we had doubts about the ability of the roof to withstand a strong gale. It did, but fortunately it wasn't as bad as forecast. Because of the price of diesel, I am at the moment always running on a low petrol tank (I've already used the 40 litres reserves I had in the shed) - that is not a good idea. When I went to the car park, I got into an immense traffic jam at rush hour - I could have got stranded away from home or worse, actually caught up in the gale.

--- Lessons: Find a way to secure cars/hide/cover cars in advance. Never use your last reserve of diesel as I had.

- Wells:

-- I forgot to cover the top of the wells. Luckily, no dirty water/pebbles got into them. I did switch/unplugged the pumps off from inside so as not to attract lightning.

- Home:

By the time we'd done the above, rain was pouring heavily. We got inside. I hadn't had time to do any last minute shopping. Thankfully, I had much of my panflu preps. I had many bottles of water too. We put anything delicate/fragile in a corridor in the center of the house away from windows. Dinner was uneventful but spicy smelling - that would have attracted people in the case of a food shortage during a pandemic. We could hear the storm, we watched TV, had a good drink, hoped for the best and slept more or less soundly. I have candles, flashlights, and batteries and luckily we did not have to use them. Electricity did not get cut off, nor did water.

-- Lessons:

National TV weather forecast was remarkably incapable of detailing which would be the worst-hit areas. We switched on the local FM radios, and information was just as lacking. In the morning, when I wrote to you asking your advice, I'd already checked all Internet official/unofficial resources, I had phoned the local airfield as well as the Geneva airport control tower. I just could not get precise information. Once at home, I worked most of the afternoon in the garden and did not listen to the radio/TV - so I had no source of information in the afternoon. By the time I got into my car and switched on the radio, the official weather forecast had worsened; I could have been heading to the eye of the storm and not have known it at all, as notice given was so short and imprecise.

In the case of a pandemic, dearth of information will be even worse or wildly inaccurate. For the first time, I have just now had a small taste of "yoyo"... and it ain't pleasing...

None of my neighbours were prepped or even just closed their shutters. My next door neighbour, who is a "man-of-a-certain-age-who-knows-it-all-and-is-prepared" kind of chap was totally unconcerned, and his house is in some ways more vulnerable than mine. The town authorities were totally unprepared. As I drove through town to park the car, we could see all sorts of objects that could fall or be thrown about, or somehow be dangerous. Children gardens had light moveable furniture about, etc.

In case of a pandemic, I'll be a sore thumb in the neighbourhood as I'm sure everyone will notice that I'm prepped. I've been contemplating moving for some time now, but yesterday really nailed it for me. I have to find a place where I can be really inconspicuous.

Many many thanks for your good wishes. Kobie, hope you're OK. Let us know when you're out of it.

Let me be blind to wicked text, deaf to wicked words, mute to wicked comments.

[ Parent ]
Good lesson
Thanks FG for sharing your experience!  Sounds like you learned a lot from this exercise, and we did too from reading your report.  Thanks!

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
Glad you're alright!
Thanks for sharing what you've learned, I'm sure it will help alot of people.

Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little- Edmund Burke
[ Parent ]
Very glad you're ok :-) and the birdies too.
There's nothing like a scaled down crisis to realise how hard a major one would be.

A portable radio adaptor for an iPod, mobile phone or similar would have been useful for keeping on top of the news while you rushed around.

Although I'm not as prepared as some in flublogia, I have spent some time on plans for me and those dear to me. It will be a case of 'do that' as I push a list into their hands.

It takes some time to identify everything you'd like done and (depending on the time available) in what order.

[ Parent ]
FrenchieGril,
I'm glad you and the birds are well. Yes birds and rabbits can die of fright.

 1st - there are electric coards with GFCI - ground fault current interruptor - built in. Though many outlets within six feet of water, door or window have them built in.

 2) Rope - ahhh yes lots of rope. When we camping I took along some cable pulling rope 500' of 240 pound test twine that comes in container like soda bottle or diaper wipes. They called it "Rope in a bottle" Easy to use and does not tangle. Its in the car now but I can get you the name.

 3) Knots. Know your knots. rope is a pain without the right knots.

 4) Tarps. Having a 12 by 24 foot tarp in the car seemed stupid till it rained then it was great to have and we kept it up all weekenend. Plastic sheeting is not bad. Blue tarps are good for cover. White Tyvek is great and comes in big rolls but can be expensive. Grey tarps are the industrial standard. Good durable but heavy. Black concrete tarps. They are comfy quilted tarp with durable black side and reflective reverse side to hold heat in for concrete curing.
 4b) wow - there are alot of tarps ! ;-) ha ha ha

 5) - Yes the best battle is the one you do not have to fight. Be inconspicouis.

Kobie
   

[ Parent ]
Thanks, FrenchieGirl
It's good to know that you and the birds fared OK, and thanks for sharing what you learned - all very valuable!
[ Parent ]
Ike
Ike is now a 3.  
Hanna headed my way
Hanna headed my way.

 Water - got it
 Flash lights - got it
 Batteries - got it
 Alternate cooking - done it, just leaned to make pizza and eclairs over coals. Kinda like brick oven pizza.
 Dutch oven - ready.
 Food prep - done it
 Home schooling stuff - printed out.
 bang bang sticks - no comment.

 Just need to lower teh temp in the fridge adn make  a few jugs of ice.

 Ain't pandemic prepping grand  ;-)

Kobie
P.S. - there is no joy in watching other freak.  

stay safe n/t

[ Parent ]
hope all goes well
with you and yours Kobie! You're well prepared and that's half the battle.

Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little- Edmund Burke
[ Parent ]
Pandemic to thank
MaMa,

 I have the pandemic to thank for some of my prepping. It has broadened my skill set.

 May this help make the case for why "all hazards approach" has a good return on investment.

Kobie

[ Parent ]
I hope so too-
"May this help make the case for why "all hazards approach" has a good return on investment."

There are a multitude of things that can go wrong, no doubt there.

Stay safe and well!

oh, and have an eclair for me...now I want to learn how to cook stuff like that over coals too:-)

Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little- Edmund Burke

[ Parent ]
Good luck, Kobie
You sound prepared - stay safe.  (I need to learn to cook pizza over coals!)
[ Parent ]
Box oven
InKy,

 Look up box oven. Cardboard box covered with heavy duty tinfoil and secured with heating duct tape. The aluminum tape was the only hard thing to find at Lowes - it is in the paint department with the other tape not the Heat and AC section. Any metal grill that fits the box makes for a good rack. Aluminum pans, need two, holds the coals.

 Each coal gives about 40 degrees F heat so 8 coals is 400 degrees.

 You can use pita bread or make your own bread for pizza. Comes out of the box oven brick oven crisp in about half the time 8-10 min v.s. 17 to 21 min. Other than the grated cheese nothing needed refridgeration.

 We went with pita bread because thre where so many different tastes.

  I have not tried solar ovens yet. They seem to be better for hot water than baking.

  For me the hardest part was starting. Now I'm looking at a higher efficiency tri-wall (3 cardboard walls) with side doors and air vent that scavenges radiant waste heat. Looks good on paper.

Kobie

[ Parent ]
Eclairs over coals?!?
MMMMMMmmmmmmm.....there goes my diet!! I gotta learn how to do that!!
[ Parent ]
Girl scouts eat well.
  My nieghbor does girl scouts - they eat well.

 Yes with the vanilla pudding filling and chocolate cake frosting they where good with a sugar rush.

 The sugar free pudding filling is not bad.

 Very little refridgeration needed to keep the supplies.

Kobie

[ Parent ]
The storms - some uncertainty
Synopsis:  Everything hinges on whether the high pressure over the Atlantic builds back into the northeast or not.  I believe neither Hanna nor Ike will end up in the gulf and will likely affect the U.S. east coast via the Bahamas.  Timing for Hanna should be Saturday sometime with landfall between Charleston and Wilmington.  Ike looks like it will affect the Bahamas around Monday, and depending on how things work out, the U.S. as early as Monday night.  I believe both of these storms will have observable effects in the U.S. even though there's some question open whether Ike will actually landfall.

What's happening with Hanna seems pretty well agreed upon with the models.  The high pressure that's strengthening now begins to retreat out into the Atlantic and a low pressure area now around the Arklatex moves northeast approaching the east coast and should create a track channel for Hanna to ride.  Landfall appears to be set for Saturday sometime somewhere between Charleston, SC and Wilmington, NC.  

Hanna has been fighting windshear which almost took the storm down in the last couple of days.  Interfering windshear should continue, and I now don't believe Hanna will get very strong though I believe it will be a hurricane.  Some strengthening should happen as it crosses the gulf stream just before landfall.  My best estimate would be a cat 1 storm at landfall.  Hanna is right now near the Turks and Caicos but finally moving north, feeling the effects of the larger scale features that should influence its guidance.

The shear affecting it is decreasing and should be less as it moves NNW.  The plot below shows shear and the shear trend.  The dashed contours are decreasing shear, and the shear is lessening from the Bahamas up towards the Carolina coast:

title=

Hanna continues to ride the periphery of the offshore high pressure rather quickly and remains close to the coast.  I believe tropical storm or hurricane watches will go up for the SC and NC coasts sometime later today (Thursday), and most of the coast NE of there will likely have tropical storm warnings at some point as it tracks along the east coast since I believe it'll be able to maintain TS intensity with such a close-to-the-coast track.  Could be a lot of power outages all through the mid-Atlantic coastal areas.  I'd still keep a wary eye on this even in central/NE Florida in case this ends up getting stronger in the short-term or the high pressure is stronger than the models think, but again I don't think this will be an overly impressive hurricane in terms of max winds.

Hanna looks like it will be a very large storm (area wise) with a large windfield.  This windfield will only increase as it moves north.  So even if it stays a way out from Florida they may end up with TS watches/warnings.  So Hanna appears as though it will affect a large amount of coast from N Florida on up to Boston.

Models for Hanna:

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As Hanna is moving onshore, currently major hurricane Ike should end up in the Bahamas near where Hanna is right now.  High pressure builds in behind that trough/low that passes off the east coast.  It's uncertain if that will have enough time to expand to the east and create a band of high pressure that covers the NE US before Ike starts moving northwest.

Gustav is looking pretty impressive at cat 4:

title=

It's starting to look annular, that donut shape very strong 'canes get.  Good outflow (except possible in the north and west, not quite as good) is apparent in this satellite image which is favorable for maintaining very strong storms.

There are lots of systems riding across southern Canada expected, and if the ridge doesn't break down in response, I think Ike could be headed to south Florida.  If it does break down, depending on timing, it will move north and may make a landfall in NC but it also may just miss to the east.  With all these storms moving through the northern US and Canada, I believe they may create a weakness/steering channel through the ridge and I am leaning towards a recurving solution so north of Miami.  On the other hand, very strong hurricanes often don't react the same to steering flows that weaker ones do and tend to turn slower.  Intense Ike's outflow could possibly give a local boost to the ridge effect to its north keeping it on a more westward track than a weaker cane would.  The models are wildly varying in the solutions and it's still a very long ways out so lets watch and see what evolves.

Here is an example of some model spread with the suggestion of recurve.

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I don't believe Ike will end up being a gulf storm.  Most likely an east coast storm.

Things may be changing with Josephine too and may not get picked up to the north, heading west into the western Atlantic.  But that one is a really long ways out.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

I meant to add...
If Ike does end up hitting Florida first, it may end up in the gulf.  Stay tuned...  And watch the Nat'l Hurricane Center's website for updates, the web address listed at the top of the diary.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
My links
Interesting, it seems that my images that I grab and post in here self-update.  The satellite pic of Ike looked really cool at 0600Z, but now the annular comment doesn't apply so much at 1030Z.  Oh well.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
Tempest--these maps are awesome!!
Thanks for taking the time to do all of this. Since you're out there, and I'm here, and you're watching the storms here, I'll try to watch for the quakes out there! Deal?

And you're right about the satellite image auto-updating. Looks like the hyperlink stayed attached. That's a nice added bonus while watching this diary...

[ Parent ]
Thanks BB
I think maybe I should attach satellite pics to the diary header and then whenever one clicks on the diary, it'll have automatically updated models and satellite images, and even wind shear maps too!

By the way, the wind field for Hanna is so large you might be feeling tropical storm force winds on Saturday, and even Friday way down on the coast near the landfall point with landfall early Sat.  Should be kind of a cool storm to experience from your locale.  Not too strong, just interesting and kind of exciting.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
I suppose I should...
...get out tonight and trim down my 6-foot-tall tomato plants! The last little windstorm we had, 'bout a month or so ago, knocked 'em all over! ;-) In reality, my concern is the trees here---most are about 60 or so feet tall, shallow roots, and stand about 50 feet from the house!

The area we're in, on the north edge of the James River just west of Jamestowne, is fairly protected. But at 60 feet, a lot of air moves around from these storms! It's amazing to sit and watch the trees bend so far over then swing back like catapults...

[ Parent ]
Trees . . .
What kind of trees do you have?  Different varieties react to strong winds differently - some break off and become large missile type objects, while others will come up by the roots.  Shallow roots aren't the greatest . . . at least they're 50 feet from your house.  

This is one year I'm really glad that we moved inland so I don't have to try to figure out how to deal with these storms!

[ Parent ]
Clawdia...about those trees....
We've got white pine, golden oak, and some hickory, along with really old holly "bushes" that stand around 30 feet high! The oak trees are the ones we can watch bending and swaying...they're fairly strong. But the pines tend to snap at the halfway point

A year ago July, there was a cyclone that blew through here...took a 30 foot section off of one of the taller pine trees in front and tossed it against the front of the house. We were fortunate in that the only damage was to the rain gutter out front...but it could have been lots worse if it had landed on the roof!

Several weeks ago, we were sitting out back on the deck when we heard this most gawd-awful sound, almost like a billion twigs snapping all at once. We looked toward the sound, and out of the blue a large oak tree fell directly between our next door neighbor's house and the next one down. Only 5 minutes earlier, the gentleman who lived there had been under that tree stacking wood...very lucky man!!

[ Parent ]
Oaks and pines . . .
You're right about those pines snapping off . . . they can be nasty to deal with.

I've rarely seen an oak up by its roots.  They bend like crazy, but most of 'em stand back up.  Sycamores always seemed to be bad to come up by the roots where we lived.

Maybe the blows will all blow right on by you - this first one seems likely to track right between where you are and where we are to the west.

Ike, though - if that thing keeps on looking the way it does, that's a storm that might call for evacuating, depending on the lay of the land and where you are.  We're ok - you might have a problem (but I hope not)!

[ Parent ]
The problem with most of the trees here
Is that, with the heavy but sporadic rains along the East Coast in the summer and much less rain in the winter, the water runs off pretty fast, not allowing it to soak into the ground. So...the tree roots seek out the water, which is on top of this stuff they call 'soil' here...mostly just hard yellow clay.
The trees don't get a really deep 'foothold' in the ground, and they just fall over. Literally.

I got here just a couple of weeks after Ernesto left his mark on the area, and a week before that big Nor'easter came through. I found out through simple observation that my property is basically the catch basin for the three properties around me....we had about 11 inches of rain in 8 hours, water in the back utility room about an inch deep, and a river running along both sides of the house.
Since then, we've installed French drains along the back and sides, and bought a 'BigGas' generator for power.

Now if only the power company would turn the heat down just a smidge right after these storms blow through...cutting up fallen trees in 80% humidity under a 95 degree sun is NOT my idea of a good time!!!

[ Parent ]
Awsome, Tempest!
The storm pictures you are posting here and the expanations you are giving us are just fantastic! I am worried about Ike more than Hanna. He is one big monster and if he stays a Cat. 3 or above then there will be severe damage to the area of landfall. If the early models end up being right then some area of the east coast has a good chance of being slammed by a hurricane reminiscent of Hugo or Andrew. Not good!  

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

[ Parent ]
FWIW
Carol, I'm more worried about Ike too.  I think the devastation potential is higher for Ike.  I think though that a huge number of people way up the coast will find Hanna to be a pretty memorable storm.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
Virginia tides for 2008 from NOAA
Tides for South Carolina
September - Pinckney Island, Mackay Creek, Chechessee River

09/05/2008 Fri 12:51AM LDT 6.9  H  06:47AM LDT 0.9  L  01:28PM LDT 7.4  H  07:32PM LDT 1.4  L

source:
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.g...

Rising tide as hanna Hits Norfolk about 1 pm on Saturday September 6th.

[snip]
09/06/2008 Sat 02:15AM LDT 2.5  H  08:19AM LDT 0.5  L  02:54PM LDT 3.0  H  09:19PM LDT 0.7  L
[snip]
source: http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.g...

Kobie

IKE not GUSTAV
Hi Tempest -- you had me spun up for a few moments on your graphic from this morning at 1:52am. You had it commented as "Gustav is looking pretty impressive at cat 4: ", and realized it was the graphic for IKE moving in. I was wondering where the h*ll Gustav re-emerged from????
These storms are on approach like a big airport, one after another, and I can't help but be concerned with all the folks that are in the danger zones. Thanks for the heads up on the storms behavior and tracking info.
Thanks MiHi
I'm glad you are tracking along with us.  I don't see you comment very often, so thanks for coming out of de-lurk mode to offer your encouragement.

Yeah, I quite often wish there were an edit button.  I don't read through as carefully as I should.  And it's hard to keep all of these storms in check.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Not to cause whiplash, but...
I just wanted to alert you all to the trend I'm seeing with the latest batch of model runs.  This is 5 days out and it would be no surprise to see it change radically again.  Still, in my early this morning post, my feeling was that the northward turn in the Bahamas from the models over the last 24 hours might have been over done and this south Florida approach is the scenario I was more worried about.  

You may decide that I'm a bit of a drama queen, but I will say this big, very valid and important disclaimer that I would not be surprised at all if the later models become more refined and tell another tale.

On the 12 Zulu model runs (initialized 8 a.m. EDT), a large number of models decided that the ridge to the north would be strong and have shifted Ike's track to south Florida, at least the models that initialized correctly.  For instance, the GFS was initialized with a very shallow weak low pressure, totally unrepresentative of what Ike is right now.  I won't even talk about that track b/c it's holds no credence.

I expect they may flipflop some more as we're still 5 days out, but I wanted to pass this along.  Furthermore, after some weakening into Saturday, wind shear relaxes and the storm should ramp back up.

Here's one of the example models, the HWRF which is decent when initialized well.  Tuesday afternoon it's shown off the coast of Homestead, FL with a pressure of 905mb, and windspeed of 124knots (145mph).  This would put all of south Florida including the keys in danger:

title=

I just wanted to show that this is a plausible scenario and for people in Florida (and possibly into the gulf later) should pay close attention.  

Update:  The 18Z models are out and thought I'd show you this.  There are a lot of these models showing very close to S FL.  This is something to watch carefully.  I wouldn't expect watches to go up until early Sunday and not talked about much til Saturday if this does become the likely scenario, so just a heads up.

title=

Nothing to get overly worried about, but just prepare for the possibility.  Give it another day to see if the models stick to this.  That should be plenty of time to make more definitive plans.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Tempest:
We realize that tracking hurricanes is difficult so don't hold back on your thoughts of what you think might happen in the future. There are so many things that come into play and influence a hurricane's behavior so we know that things can change as time goes by. I am facinated with the information you are giving us and with watching these systems develop.  

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

[ Parent ]
Just added a (hopefully) auto-updating satellite
picture of Ike at the diary header up top.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
Satellite image
It's been looking like Ike has been strengthening a bit on satellite.  The thing to watch out for that would indicate weakening is if the cloud pattern looks more asymmetrical around the eye, and if the eye even clouds over and becomes more obscure.  If the eye remains sharp however, and seems to get a little smaller, that often suggests strengthening.  

A widening eye may or may not suggest weakening, but usually does not indicate strengthening.  If the eye appears to get larger, and especially if you see concentric 'rings' of convection around the eye, and eyewall replacement cycle may be occurring and this indicates temporary weakening.  This of course would be easier to see with a satellite loop (usually Java based) which I don't know how to post on here.  I really wish I did.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
The latest on Hanna and Ike
Hanna remains a large and somewhat disorganized (sub)tropical storm.  A subtropical storm isn't the same kind of heat engine that a tropical storm is.  It has a cooler core and it's less sensitive to strengthening in response to warmer waters.  Hanna has been subjected to wind shear the last couple days and that appears to continue.  This helps keep Hanna from getting better organized; however, recently a blowup of strong convection has been observed near the storm's center.  So it may be regaining solid tropical characteristics and implies that it could strengthen more easily under favorable circumstances.  I'm posting an image that is valid around 5 a.m. EDT for the storm and you can see the reds show up near the center which indicates strong convection. This image might change over time because I don't know how to lock an image in on the server:

Color enhanced infrared for Hanna...note reds near center

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Even if Hanna does become a more warm core system (tropical vs. subtropical), it has a lot of dry air to contend with which tends to disrupt any attempts at strengthening.  In the water vapor image below, note how the storm is surrounded from the SW to NE by dark, dry regions (again, valid around 5 a.m. EDT).  It's been retarding the storm, but the dry air has been lessening a bit.:

Water vapor imagery Hanna...dry air from SW to NE

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All-in-all, conditions are becoming slightly more favorable for intensification, but due to Hanna's large size, I don't anticipate any rapid intensification before landfall somewhere around Myrtle Beach overnight Sat. in the wee hours.  It may get a little boost during the short period over the gulf stream before landfall if it should become more tropical than sub-tropical.  Still the storm is large and it's reasonable to expect that the system will cover most of coastal SC and much of coastal NC with at least tropical storm strength winds.  The signs of better tropical organization suggest to me that it may be a tad stronger than the NHC currently has at landfall.  They have a top end, 60 knot (70mph) tropical storm at landfall and I believe it will make it to cat 1 at around 75-85 mph at landfall.  These stronger hurricane force winds will be found mostly over water.

It's getting breezy in Florida from Hanna.  Here are some observations from 5 a.m.  Check out the wind column.  I expect these to go up a bit through the morning, and NE Florida may get tropical storm strength winds later today:

CITY                        WIND      
DAYTONA BEACH       N20G33
JFK SPACE CTR          NW14G22
PATRICK AFB             N24G31  
MELBOURNE               NW20G29
VERO BEACH             NW18G30  
FT PIERCE                 NW18G31
W PALM BEACH          W17
FT LAUDER-EXEC       W21
FT LAUDERDALE         W16G26
POMPANO BEACH         W15G24
PEMBROKE PINES       W14G23
OPA LOCKA                NW12  
MIAMI                       W10G18

Ike continues to be the storm I'm more concerned will do worse damage of the two.  It too has dry air nearby, but the system has been very much self-contained and I don't see signs that it's drawing any of the dry air in.:

Water vapor for IKE

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Ike too, currently a top-end cat 3, will be experiencing some shear til Saturday morning that may allow it to weaken a bit as it approaches the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas.  The shear should relax and Ike will have a chance to restrengthen.  However, Ike will then be over waters that may have been cooled by Hanna's churning.  Since Hanna wasn't that strong, I feel this may not have a big effect on weakening Ike.

The models are split on exact track but there are two stories the models are telling now, and both agree on an impact for Florida by days 4-5.

One scenario has it getting close enough to Cuba that the high terrain should disrupt the storm and help it weaken some more around Sunday.  The other has it moving through the southern Bahamas before veering slightly north into SE to E Central Florida.  In this other scenario, land interaction won't be a significant issue.  Since the ridge across the western Atlantic is now forecast to be fairly strong, and the outflow from Ike should locally enhance the southward-pushing effect, I'm slightly more inclined to go with the more southern track which should allow for a slightly weaker landfall in Florida, and a little farther south, like south of Miami to Flamingo.  If this works out, I believe Ike would be a cat 2 or 3 at landfall.  The Bahamas will get raked badly by this storm no matter which scenario plays out.  Still, intensity is very difficult if not impossible to forecast and a large area of south Florida will be subject to hurricane force winds.  The southern track could bring a large surge over the Keys.

The official NHC track (as of 5 a.m. EDT) is split down the middle until we can see which track is happening and has landfall in the Miami-Ft. Lauderdale metro area late Tuesday night.

title=

Beyond day 5, the big question is if it will enter the gulf.  We'll be watching.

Ike's impacts on the U.S. are still 4 days away so please keep watching here, or check the National Hurricane Center (NHC) or your local National Weather Service (NWS) office websites for official info.

NHC:  http://www.nhc.noaa.gov
NWS:  http://www.nws.noaa.gov

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Thanks Temptest for keeping
the lights on. You've certainly had your work cut out for you this season!

Hanna is going to stay East of me, Orginally we were suppose to get the effects, but the forescast has now changed for us. We could still see some rain, but only rain.


United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com

[ Parent ]
It is a miserable day in central florida
dark dreary gusts to 30mph and raining. Bleh. The St John river can't take too much more water. I hope she passes quickly.

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson
[ Parent ]
Will make a detailed forecast later this morning for Ike
.Hanna will continue to affect the mid-Atlantic and NE US with tropical storm conditions

Please notice the plots on Ike including model charts at the top of this diary, and also various other plots in the body.  Could the other shoe be about to drop for the Louisiana coast???  I'll explore that and give my personal outlook.  After a cursory glance, it's not looking good.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Hanna moving ashore Myrtle Beach 3 a.m. EDT n/t


Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
Ike the Amazing
Ike plans to be different.  Climatology is such that a system approaching Florida from the east at the relatively high latitude that Ike is at, is quite unlikely to take the path that Ike appears to be taking.

High pressure over the western Atlantic has become strong and is going to push Ike just south of Florida.  You can see in the plot here that steering flow appears to be protecting the east coast of Florida.  Hanna is riding up on the NW side of this ridge.

Current steering flow:

title=

Once Ike reaches the SW side of this slow-moving high pressure steering pattern, will have already impacted the Bahamas and Cuba and should be in the SE or South Central Gulf somewhere near the loop current.  

A number of low pressure systems moving across the eastern U.S. could potentially pull the system north, but models seem to think they are too weak to actually do that for a while.

The current models are indicating that Ike may make a track along Cuba, possibly far enough inland where the mountains should weaken Ike quite a bit.  There's a good chance it'll end up on either side where the mountains will have much less of an effect.  Once on the southwestern side of the high pressure, Gustav should veer northwest into the gulf.  

As it looks now, Ike will ride northwest from Cuba and pass near and to the west of Key West Tuesday/Wednesday, encountering the loop current towards the end of the week.  Steering patterns become very weak starting the middle of next week as Ike is a few hundred miles south of the central Gulf coast so Ike pretty much drifts in the same place in an area of high heat content.  Will worry about strenthening if Ike is well intact after the Cuba encounter.

Next trough strong enough to draw Ike north will begin to turn Ike North-northeast towards the middle to eastern gulf coast Friday with a landfall next weekend.

If Ike takes an inland Cuba track, it could weaken remarkably, possibly to tropical storm strength or even lower.  The storm may be so disrupted that once the circulation center re-enters the gulf, it may at the very least take a long time to restrengthen.  There's a decent chance though that its track around Cuba won't do very much damage to the circulation and we could be seeing a very strong storm lurking in the middle of the gulf.  

There's a lot of 'ifs' right now and the above analysis is based on models right now.  We need to see what happens over the next couple of days to see if they are right.  But obviously this does not look like a good situation and some of the more sensitive areas of the gulf coast may be impacted.  

I may be fairly busy next week with other stuff, so I hope others who follow tropical weather will chime in and help keep everyone informed.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

we'll do our best
I'll post what I find from mllwx and darksyde.
[ Parent ]
Florida Keys
Early aggressive evacuation order for everyone in the Keys already in place for Sunday with the expectation of passage on Tuesday.

http://keysnews.com/node/5263

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Hanna In SC
As I sit here not far from BB on the east coast the forward rain bands from Hanna, two stats away, are causing power dips.

 My storm preps where light. I made an obligitory run to the supermarket to pick up some milk, a gallon of watter to freeze and found a 1.5 liter bottle of FoxHound shiraz on sale for $5.99.  My pandemic preps will not even get touched.

 I put things away in the yard. When the wind gets bad i will bring in the American flag just to reduce wear and  tear on it.

 The flashlights and camping stuff was tested last weekend. Both propane tanks are full. Ive frozen extra water adn turned the Fride to is lowest setting.

 My biggist fear is loss of electricity and trees taking out the house and car. I have tarps for the house and insurance but the car would be totaled.

  We are multi fuel home using gas for heat and hot water with electric AC. There is steam powered AC in New York city but not here. We do  not use natural gas for AC nor power. The gas company contract has many addional service fees.

 I will post during the day as long as my internet holds out to post my view from the edge of the swamp.

Kobie

 

Tropical Storm force winds in Carolinas/Virginia now
Well Kobie, you and BB should be feeling some pretty strong winds I'd bet for a while.

Tropical storm force winds are being felt right now as far north as the Virginia Beach area mostly near or over water, but could increase as Hanna gets closer.  Hope your trees hold up!

Here's a cool weather observation map.  It takes a minute or two to load, but once it does you can filter out places where winds are above a certain threshold.  Click the radio button that says 'windspeed' then use the slider to limit the lower end to say, 40 mph (tropical storm force wind) and set the upper end at say 70.  It color codes based on speeds within that range and it only shows stations in that range.  I think you'll like it.

http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/me...

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Windy but not too bad - just noisy
Tempest.
 Thanks. It took a second for Jave to load. I zoomed in on Va NC line and it looked like the storm had really moved.

 Intellicast radar showed it had and made me feel good that I could read the metorlogical symbology and know what it meant.

 The lights have been stable but I hear stuff moving around other peoples yards. All the trash cans, basket ball hoops and outdoor grills have been secured.

 Its not alot of rain but wind for me.

 Looks like people in Franklin, Surry and matthews county will get it.  

 I wonder if we will have this much information during a pandemic.

  As a kid I never paind hurricans much attention. the storms where a grown up thing. At age 7 being in a Ford Galaxy 500 during a hail storm was "one neat ride I wish they had at Disney world"  At age 10 I just made sure I had my flashlight, blanket/sleeping bag and a map. Now its a bit more complicated as shingles fly off, cars, work, etc.

 I.m more worried about IKE heading past FLA to New Orleans. Practice makes perfect - right?

KObie  

[ Parent ]
Storm = firewood
Well Hanna has come and gone.

 Just alot of leaves and tree limbs down - free fire wood. Humid today.

 All in all not bad. The other cities also closed their EOCs last night.

 New prep tactic - post mortum sales. Well post storm sales.

 Amost a quarter of my camping stuff is from presents or things I've found on sale at the end of the season. This is also some of my prep stuff.

 Time to hit the sales for who says prepping has to be expensive.

 Just watching IKE as it heads past New Orleans for the Texas boarder.

 IKE is suppost to fly the length of CUBA and stretch to cover it side to side. That will be bad. I'm sure there will be false reports of "(_____ fill in the blank) using secret (______ fill in the blank) technology to control weather systems. "

  Hopefully the EOC and emergency managers will use this time to stress prepping - pandemic and weather. The do go hand in hand.

Kobie

[ Parent ]
Ready for just about anything now
The eye of what's left of Hanna is due to pass by here in about 30 minutes, keeping just to the west along the I-95 corridor. We've had winds up to about 25 mph this morning, and sporadic very short power outages, mainly only as the grid re-routed power off of downed lines in the area.

We just got back from the beach along the James River, and with the high tide, a bit of storm surge, and the higher winds across the water, it looks like the ocean with the waves breaking.

I spent most of yesterday completely clearing my deck and yard of ANYTHING that could move in a 60mph+ wind...and so far, well, we've only seen windspeeds of about 25 - 40mph!! We do have a good windbreak in the back of our property, whatwith the many trees lined along the property edge. However, again, that's the east side of the house, and that's where most of the wind is directing from.

We'll see how the rest of the day plays out...

[ Parent ]
How's it all working out BB? n/t


Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
Well, it's Sunday morning, and..
...we're still waiting for the storm to get here!  
Actually, in our area, I think we dodged a bullet, or Wmsbg has a bubble over it---we ended up with about 3 inches of rain overnight, and winds of around 30mph for a couple of hours.

No big deal, really...in fact, we spent last evening down at the river's edge with friends, watching the 'orangest' sunset you can imagine, and enjoying the cool evening

But I was ready!!!  :-)

[ Parent ]
NHC expertise
presumably the NHC is aware of all that, what tempest writes and
they take it into account in their probabilities

or not ?

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

NHC has their own experts
and are responsible for much of the data tempest uses. he can speak for himself, but via comment, he may not be available much.
[ Parent ]
...
My forecasts are based on data available all over the web.  The NHC is the benchmark for forecasting these storms out to 5 days and they have more resources than I do.  However, the NHC is mandated to only forecast 5 days out, and I have the luxury of being able to express my opinions about what's happening farther out than that, which I sometimes do.  Sometimes though I don't agree with their forecast within 5 days, and there's a lot of reasons that that may happen.  They have strict guidelines and many concerns to juggle.  My forecast always comes with an implicit disclaimer and I always will defer to the NHC and local Nat'l Weather Service Office for direction when a plan of action may be needed for people potentially affected.  I will often say, "people who live in such-and-such part of the coast, please watch the NHC and NWS website for important information concerning any action you may need to take."


Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
I really love dealing with professionals
it is enlightening ;-)

meanwhile I've got a tornado watch for the next 20 minutes as a low pressure area moves up the NY-CT border.

It's also raining cats and dogs from Hannah.

[ Parent ]
Possible tornado formation in Newtown
right now.  

Ridgefield and Newtown at the moment are the problem areas.  

[ Parent ]
Tornado warning in CT
for Bethel, Redding, Wilton, Ridgefield, Danbury right now.

Wilton is the center of this storm cell. Moving Northwest.

Several folks here live and work in this area.

They are saying it is very unusual for this kind of thing to be happening during a tropical storm.  

Hey Pixie
It is kind of unusual, but we've been seeing a lot of tornado activity to the north and east of tropical systems over the U.S. lately.  Gustav was a major tornado producer over the gulf states.  I bet your weather is getting pretty exciting there right now.  

The Turks & Caicos are about to get hammered by Ike.  Winds are coming up, and passage of the eye over the island appears to be just a few hours away.  They are just about to enter the business end of the storm.  Here's a link to observations from there.  I suspect at some point the station will go down though.  Right now just 23mph gust to 40.  Should pick up in a big way over the next couple hours.

http://www.wunderground.com/gl...

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
The meteorologists are very
busy and excited right now.

We have half of the state with winds going one direction (fast) and half of the state with winds going the other direction (fast) and they're very concerned about where they are meeting up.    

[ Parent ]
Ike the Wildcard!
Ike is right now over the Turks and Caicos.  I'm very worried about what Ike is doing there now and we may not know much for a day or two.  Ike looks stronger now than it did earlier today and I'd say it may be stronger than what NHC estimated at the 11p.m. EDT advisory.  Ike will blow through the SE Bahamas, make a near miss with Haiti, and then should hit Cuba.  There's some uncertainty in the track near Cuba that would have some important implications on how organized Ike is after its encounter with Cuba.  But in the long run, I don't think it will make a huge difference whether it's weakened significantly over the mountains, or ends up near the coast where less weakening would occur.  

The meteorologists at NHC must be seriously stressing over this one.

Today a special NOAA G-IV mission went out to sample the upper air environment around Ike.  I don't know directly what the results were, but this data went into the 00Z runs, including the GFS model whose results are coming out now.  From what I can infer by looking at the GFS, it looks like the ridging to the north of Ike was found to be, or as things evolve in a day or so, will be a little stronger than the models showed before.  The new GFS model run has Ike pushing farther south off the south coast of Cuba.  This would mean less disruption to the system, and it could end up going over the same part of Cuba that Gustav did, and just as strong.  That is terrible news.

The sampling they did doesn't really help solve the mystery of what will happen after Ike reaches the central gulf by about Tuesday/Wednesday.  The real frustration starts then.  

Ridging has been well advertised as covering much of the southern U.S.  A number of troughs (low pressure areas) will push across the U.S. and the models can't decide if any of them will be strong enough to draw Ike north.  They've been flip-flopping a lot, especially on the trough expected to move through the southern Plains by Thursday/Friday.  In some runs, the trough is strong enough to make a weakness in the ridge and draw Ike north, and in others it's not.  At this point I don't think anyone can even give statistical odds of landfall anywhere on the gulf coast.  They'd likely change drastically with each run.  Solutions for landfall have been everywhere from Brownsville to Tampa.  

There is, however, a little peak in the probability distribution though that I can see.  If that trough near the end of the week does end up being strong enough to draw Ike northward, I'm afraid the N Central Gulf from south central Louisiana to the western Florida panhandle would be under the gun yet again.  If not, the storm would likely move farther west under the influence of the high pressure to the north nudging the storm from east to west.

With the strong ridging to the north and otherwise placid environment Ike will be in over the gulf, I don't see any detracting factors for intensification.  Even if Ike is disrupted over Cuba, unless the core gets ripped apart ala Fay, the storm should regain strength quickly over the gulf.  Ike should even spend some time over the loop current, but unlike Fay, I think Ike's core will remain intact when it does.  Ike is expected to traverse Cuba quickly and will be intense to begin with, so I think the core will manage to hold togethe.

So the upshot is that it looks like the SE Bahamas, Cuba including the Isle of Youth will be dealing with a very strong storm, which should then end up in the central gulf of Mexico.  We won't know what happens after that until the troughs can be sampled.  The weather that's expected over the central U.S. late next week is currently over the Pacific somewhere where we can't really sample it.  So I think we may not have a better handle on things until Monday at the earliest.  The same areas threatened by Gustav remain one of the clear possibilities though.  The models will probably be changing with each run until then.  Frustrating indeed.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Cuba
not many people in Turks(17K), but what about all the people in Santiago(494K),Camaguay(325K),
Holguin(327K) ? Are they being evacuated ?

Tempest, do you have a statistics of your forecasts as compared to NHC ?

Ike forecasts were bad, too far North. Now it hits Cuba.  

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
Evacs
Yeah gs, I hope so too.  I think Cuba with its highly centralized gov't is pretty good about evacuations, but logistically I don't know about cities that size.  Apparently there were no deaths in Cuba from Gustav, as powerful as that one was in Cuba (cat 4).

No on the stats.  I'm not sure what kind of statistics you mean, but my forecasts are informal.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
where to go
where to go on an island, when the storm path aligns to its length ?

Santiago and Guantanamo looks better currently than Holguin or Camaguey

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
Good point n/t


Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
ocean-data
I found a page with satellite-weather data, sea-temperature, wind speeds.
Maybe it can be used to make our own forecasts ...

someone wants to install and test the QuikScat software ?

http://podaac.jpl.nasa.gov/DAT...
http://podaac-help.jpl.nasa.go...

bets for US-landfall:
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/int...
http://www.intrade.com/jsp/int...

...

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
Pandemic Prep hurricane rider
  Comaparing tornados and hurricanse I can see why the preps sound so different. Why prep for a tornado if the whole place will be leveled and cast to the four winds?

Why? - because you may want to help others.

Now the EOC and emergency managers have the TV and peoples attention.

 A good partial  pandemic prep message of 'have atleast three days food if not more, flash lights, radio, medical supplies and papers saved" wold not be bad in my opinion.

 It really sucks finding the shelves empty or 30 min wait to check out when trying to do last min preps.

 " Be smart - be fully loaded with pandemic preps"

 Just a thought

Kobie

Dem:
I heard on the 11 PM local news last night that Danbury has 3 feet of standing water from Hanna. I was surprised the local newscasters here even knew where Danbury, CT is located. LOL

I live in the northeast part of South Carolina. We are in a very bad drought situation and really needed the rains from Hannah. We didn't get even a sprinkle out of her. I figured out that you got our share too and we would like for you to send some of that water back down to SC to us? LOL

Seriously, I hope everyone is safe there and that it hasn't caused to much damage.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

Models continue to be testy
Currently, Ike is just off the NE Cuban coast about to make landfall in the next 12 hours or so.  It is also beginning an interesting eyewall replacement cycle that as of now (7:30 p.m. EDT) you can see on the Cuban radar image I posted at the top.  In the radar, you can see precip from the inner eyewall very close to the center of the eye.  Then there is a nearly concentric blank area, and then another round eyewall with more precipitation concentric to the blank area.  The inner eyewall may fall apart before landfall leaving Ike with a huge 50 mile wide eye.  Storms typically weaken a little after the replacement cycle is complete.  It may or may not finish before landfall, but after landfall the storm should gradually weaken anyway and they eye may begin to fill in.  The replacement cycle is likely not important overall, but just an interesting thing to watch.

First, please keep in mind that landfall appears to be nearly 6 days out, and models can change.  Not to be indecisive, it's just a healthy grain of salt I want you to have at this time.  There is still time to see how things evolve.  

My current thinking is this.  Strong high pressure should remain in force over the southeastern U.S. during the next few days.  The models are indecisive on handling small troughs blowing through the strong westerlies just north of the band of high pressure.  Towards the middle of the week, as high pressure strengthens over the west coast, it should cause a trough to amplify in response over the rockies.  This is a normal response when a ridge, or high pressure, amplifies.  The jetstream bends upward and in response, downstream the jetstream bends down, carving out a trough. The models disagree how much the troughing will intrude on the high pressure over the east coast currently in control of Ike's motion.  This has implications on where Ike will begin moving north.

I feel that most of the models are underestimating the speed of the westerly flow and speed of evolution of these features.  In other words, I think the trough should develop a little faster than most of the models show.  I also believe that the high pressure should retreat east a little faster than they show and so Ike should begin moving north a little sooner.  

Additionally, some of the more westward models, I notice, want to phase an additional very small ridge over the southern plains in response to that trough digging down.  I believe this feature in those models is grabbing Ike and pulling it a little farther west towards Texas.  I feel that this small ridge feature is probably just a spectral artifact and won't actually happen.

Having said that, most of the model ensemble is showing landfall somewhere between Corpus Cristi and Mobile.  I want to add that this is a normal amount of uncertainty this far out and the NHC's cone contains this area.  I am more apt to believe the HWRF model which shows a more progressive solution with Ike turning north in the middle to slightly east of middle part of this cone.  Many of the models show a Texas landfall at this time owing to a slower progression of the ridge breaking down and that weird little artifact I think they are showing.  I feel that a Louisiana landfall is more likely at this time.  

This very well could change, but this has been the solution I have interpreted from the models from the past couple of days.  Please everyone on the gulf coast stay abreast of the situation.  The Florida Keys may see hurricane force winds as Ike passes by just to the south and west towards the middle gulf.

As far as intensity goes, I'm expecting that Ike will keep its core intact after traversing Cuba.  There are some mountainous regions, but much of Cuba is still flat and low.  The short term forecast for Ike looks pretty good.  The NHC has Ike emerging from Cuba as a Cat 1, and this seems reasonable given that Ike looks like it will be over Cuba for nearly 2 days.  It's possible it may even be a tropical storm at that time, but as long as the core remains relatively intact, it should be able to reorganize after about a 24 hour period where it regains full organization upon reentering water.  So restrengthening over the gulf looks likely.  Additionally, it should pass through the loop current which if Ike is fully organized again, should energize the storm.  I know I said that about Fay and it didn't happen, but Fay had some organization problems before hitting Cuba, and the mountains there put the nail in the coffin for Fay.  Then, the waters in the northern gulf IMO can only support about a cat 3.  If Ike strengthens beyond that over the loop current, I feel it should slowly weaken to about cat 3 by the time it makes landfall.

Please stay tuned, things do often change 6 days out.

Over and out for now.  -Tempest

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

Meant to add timescales for impacts
Looks like the Keys will be seeing the worst weather on Tuesday and overnight into early Wed.  Then a landfall in the N Central Gulf appears to be likely on Saturday.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
NHC may upgrade as Ike moves onshore
A recent dropsonde found 120kt winds in the inner eyewall.  This suggests cat 4 again.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
follow-up
from discussion at 11...

SFMR AND DROPSONDE
OBSERVATIONS FROM A NOAA RESEARCH AIRCRAFT MISSION INDICATE THAT
IKE PROBABLY RE-STRENGTHENED TO 110-115 KT BEFORE LANDFALL IN
EASTERN CUBA.  REGARDLESS...WEAKENING IS NOW EXPECTED AS THE CENTER
MOVES OVER THE LANDMASS OF CUBA.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Surge/wave pics
These pics are rather frightening.  I'm going to let you open the link if you want to see them rather than post them directly.  Nothing gory, just shockingly large waves and some surge.  It just kind of took my breath away.  These were taken well to the east of where the storm made landfall in Barbacoa (thus the daylight), so the surge here was actually smaller than on the other side of the eye.  The storm came ashore in the second most populous region, and seeing these images is very humbling.  I just pray that things come out the best they possibly can.

http://www.metsul.com/blog/

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

http://www.stormpulse.com/ - another cool hurricane site

http://www.stormpulse.com/

 Click on the cities and it will draw a line from Ike to the city and "connect the dots"

kobie

www.stormpulse.com/
Kobie, Thanks for posting this website's address. Not to knock the NWS graphics and information (invaluable for sure), the stormpulse graphics and functionality are very interactive. I particularly like the Ocean Bouy toggle. It allows you to receive the bouy information including windspeed as the hurricane approaches/departs the bouy vicinity.  Neat stuff, however it does paint a dire picture wherever IKE makes landfall.
[ Parent ]
Ike
Right now, if I were living anywhere on the Texas coastline, I'd be packing up and getting read to leave tonight.

From what I've seen today, it looks like Brownsville to Galveston is the target area; however, as always with hurricanes, the things seem almost to have minds of their own and nobody on the gulf coast should breathe a sigh of relief just yet.

[ Parent ]
evacuation
it's more efficient to evacuate on the last day, when you know the
target. Plan and prepare for 1-day concentrated evacuation
of a ~50*50miles area
seems possible as the latest Gustav-example had shown

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies
[ Parent ]
Not the best idea . . .
If everyone waits to evacuate until the storm's path is more clearly defined, then there doesn't remain enough time to get everyone out safely.

Imagine being in bumper to bumper traffic, moving at 2-3 miles an hour if moving at all, while a major hurricane draws closer and closer.  Sometimes hurricanes even increase in forward speed as they approach landfall, giving people even less time than they thought they had.  Hurricanes are unpredictable - a 50 mile radius might not be a large enough area to evacuate.  Hurricanes can change course right before landfall, too, as well as changing forward motion speed.

It's a recipe for disaster - one of the worst places to be during hurricane conditions would be in a csr, with no way to get in out of the weather, nowhere to go, nowhere to be safe.  That's  my notion of a nightmare . . .

[ Parent ]
trains
use trains. Or buses, trucks.
They may prepare fields, meadows for military trucks.

The main danger is flooding.

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
Clawdia is right.
gs - Clawdia has it right.  You can't wait until the day before.
[ Parent ]
necessary
> Officials were criticized for ordering a mandatory evacuation
> when Hurricane Rita sideswiped Galveston in 2005 and were
> determined not to order an evacuation this year unless it was
> necessary, LeBlanc said.

> Conditions as late as Wednesday morning made it appear that
> a mandatory evacuation of the entire island would be unnecessary,
> but now it's too late to order one, Thomas said.

> "A mandatory evacuation at this time is not possible," Thomas said.
> "The window to do that is long past."

why is it ? They could do it in New Orleans with Gustav.
Are they worse prepared, no buses or trains available,
not enough wide streets ?

of course, only if "necessary", but what is necessary ? it's subjective  

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
MiHi - Most welcome
MiHi,

 Hi. Most welcome.

 Ike is a good example of what we can accomplish during a pandemic. Why?
 1) great graphics - We the people can do good things no one trained us for.
 2) Informing the people - all of a sudden word of mouth works better. Internet even business phone calls about "We will be shutting down Friday ahead of IKE so lets get this P.O. done today."
 3) Govenors and mayors giving out bad news and people do not panic. People work together
 4) Gas stations grocery stores and hardware stores run dry - proff that JIT is vulnerable. Re supply is critical
 5) People do not panic but react
 6) The fear of retrubutioin and lawsuit from not telling folks is high
 7) Proof that those who are prepared suffer less and freak out less than those who are not.
 8) Proof that those who prepare need less services and support. Prepared folks are not in shelters that should be for those with special needs, medical conditions or no other alternative.
 9) Proof that business respond to help.
and my top 10 reason for telling folks
 10) People do not freak out but do respond for local mutual aide.

 Sorry, getting off my soap box. I just wish the local powers that be would take Bird flu more seriously.

 I wish IKE was not so powerful. Just trying to get as much positive stuff out of a bad situation.

Regards,
Kobie

[ Parent ]
West
NHC always says Ike would turn North-West, while in fact it just
continues to go West.
Many examples now.

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies
predicted path
I'd like to see a graphic which shows the real path and the
120h-predicted path and the 48-hour predicted path
in one map. Where is it ?

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies
[ Parent ]
Here you go
http://flhurricane.com/sbanima...

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson
[ Parent ]
hmm, not quite

I assume these are videos of forecasts by different forecasters (?)

I just want a .gif with the taken path (OK, that one I found)
and the 120h-predicted path of the National Hurricane Center
(or other forecaster)

So you can see, how good the forecasts were.

Or even better, the data in computer-readable format.

Well, I see they have a forum at your link, so I asked there.
Thanks.

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
Sorry
I thought you wanted a link to the change in the official forecast NHC path which is one of the lines on the animation. I hope someone on the forum can answer your question.:)

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson
[ Parent ]
Google Earth for storm tracking
GS.
 If you have Google Earth installed.

 It takes a few min to install but is fun to play with even on a sunny day.

http://www.gearthblog.com/blog...

Kobie

[ Parent ]
hurricane forums
I searched a bit and found hurricane forums and websites
with much traffic and members. It seems that the hurrican-scene
is larger than the flubie-scene, people perceive the threat
from hurricanes as larger than the threat from flu.
They are also superior, since they have more probability estimates !
tempest posting at fluwikie seems like playing in the minor leagues ;-)


ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies
[ Parent ]
"...people perceive the threat from hurricanes as larger..."
That's because most people who are alive today have seen the destruction and death a hurricane can and will cause. There are very few, if any, people alive today who have seen the death rate of a pandemic on the scale of 1918.

Hurricanes have higher probability estimates due to sheer numbers: there are many, many more 'canes every 100 years than pandemics. What are your probability estimates, gs,  that a Category 3 hurricane will form in the Atlantic Ocean, pass near Bermuda, and cross between Cuba and the Florida Keys in the summer of 2012? Why?
Now, what are your probability estimates that a deadly pandemic will occur that same year? Why?

Your comment, gs, that folks who post on hurricane forums are superior to 'flubies is both condescending and ridiculous. If you run the numbers, you'll see that people who follow hurricanes have much more to work with; there's nothing superior in their thinking.

gs posting comments like this is like playing in the minor leagues.

[ Parent ]
I see the two as the same kind of threat
Perhaps you'd be better served trolling around on the hurricane boards, gs!

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!
[ Parent ]
gs, what is your goal here?
You made the comment that "tempest posting at fluwikie seems like playing in the minor leagues." The way you wrote that is insulting and your silly smily face didn't improve it. Exactly what is your problem? Is it your goal to shutdown this thread and keep the rest of us from having the benefit of this information from tempest? Is it because you crave attention so bad that you are willing to be condescending and hateful because you think it is the only way to get it? Is your goal to promote other forums? If you think these other forums are so superior then why aren't you spending your time on them and picking on someone there? Tempest is graciously giving her time and energy. I, for one, value her opinions and want the information she is providing. However, your opinion and attitude means nothing to me.

THANK YOU tempest for the good work you are doing here. The rest of us really appreciate it.

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

[ Parent ]
Yes, Tempest. We thank you! n/t


United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com
[ Parent ]
Hurricanes are easy to sea ;-)
Gs,

 I have to go with BB on this. Hurricanes are easy to see and people know what they are.

 Still the fact that doomsday asteroids and super volcanoes seem to get more press and public awareness than H5N1 disturbs me.

 Last night when trying to talk about pandemics Dec 21st, 2012 came up and people knew about that. H5N1? - not a clue and did not want to talk about it.

 Since when have TPTB endorsed a doomsday asteroid?

 Sorryy. I'm getting off my soap box and setpping away from the keyboard before I hurt myself.

 No offense to the Apothoas asteroid. I just feel you are second in line behind H5N1 and a simplier problem to solve.

Kobie  

[ Parent ]
2012
That's the date the Mayan calendar ends.

The asteroid is a separate issue - dates in question related to that are in 2029 and 2036, I think.

If the people you were talking to were trying to put that asteroid at impact in 2012, I think they've got their catastrophes confused . . .

[ Parent ]
Mixed up catastrophies but still more aware than pandemic
Clawdia,

 Hi. Yea they where confused. I was frustrated at not getting any traction or attention about pandemics.

 What does it take? I was watching TV last night. Many shows have a dramatic climax with "ohh the world is ending" or "these people are in perial".

 Well here it is in real life and no one wants to take notice. Talk about a soap opera drama of 'Indonesia wants viral soverienty" and Africa taking steps to be prepared, the US trying to help but being called a spy or worse. As a backdrop: a few, citziens try to help those who do not even know they are in danger. Instead US and EU citizens seemed content watching and learning about TV disasters that will not happen for years. This is a made for TV drama.

  At this point I wish ABC would bring back the TV show "Cavemen" for I feel very at home.

Kobie
 

[ Parent ]
Equate it like this . . .
Many people like to watch TV shows that feature couples involved in adultery.  Hardly anyone would like to watch a TV show that featured their spouse in an adulterous situation.  

Sort of - it's ok if it happens to somebody else, but if it happens to me I want nothing to do with it.

To watch someone else's world implode might be interesting to some; however, when it comes to watching our own world fade into nonexistence, the interest just isn't there.

People are strange creatures.  I think quite often people forget they are mammals on a mudball, hurtling thru a tiny corner of what we perceive to be the universe . . .

[ Parent ]
Other peoples problems
Clawdia,

 You analogy is simple - lucent - easy to apply to many situations.

 Ahh yes, strange mobile carbon units, third rock from the sun, in the backwaters of the galaxy (a tad more than 2/3 out on a spiral arm).

 Yea, what the analogy says disturbs me too - we like to watch other peoples pain.

 Ok - the next question: how do we get peoples attention without turning H5N1 into a soap opera?

 We can motivate folks to buy life insurance, replace batteries in smoke detectors, etc. Do we make it a "help your neighbor" campainge so that it is "other peoples" pandemic problems?

 Perhaps we need a modern H5N1 soap opera. Sting's song "If the Russians Loved their children too" (or a title like that) helped people believe "there is no winnable war if all is gone"  For it was the people, the russian people, who tore down the wall. It was one one man standing in Tiennamin (sp?) square who stopped a tank.

 Thanks Clawdia. Often times the story is about alot more than just the facts.

Kobie

[ Parent ]
...
not to offend anyone by posting to anyone else's comment, i'll post in reply to gs....

i think gs was comparing audiences, not players.  by comparison, the flu boards are much less statistically driven - perhaps if we'd had the number of pandemics in the last century, that we did hurricanes, there would be more statistics to reference...  assuming there remained anyone remotely interested in dwelling on them...  doubt we'd be where we are in technology, had that been the case tho..  when the pandemic hits, there will be a plethora of statistics, but not likely many interested in tabulating them...  most folks will be trying very hard not to be found among the mortality numbers, consciously, or otw.

[ Parent ]
hurricanes vs. flu
flu-people are so reluctant to give probability estimates,
hurricane people not.
They have more data to play with, but not enough.
You still see different opinions, different forecasting
models.
So, no principle difference. No reason why flu-people shouldn't
try to give probability estimates as well and work to improve
the models. The Brits are starting to do it now, the actuaries,
rating agencies too.

See just the funding : how much is spent yearly for flu-research,
how much for hurricane research ?
How many professors for meteorology, how many for virology ?
Is it justified ?

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
Tempest proponent
gs -- Let me provide some general comments and some observations on the recurring theme to your posts regarding probability estimates.

"I searched a bit and found hurricane forums and websites
with much traffic and members. It seems that the hurrican-scene
is larger than the flubie-scene, people perceive the threat
from hurricanes as larger than the threat from flu. "

The hurricane forums and websites are extremely active for a number of reasons:
--  In hurricane affected zones and those not, media coverage is omnipresent.  Networks provide constant coverage reporting the state and progression of an immediate threat (IKE) that impacts millions of people with the potential for loss of life, property, financial impact and people want to know which way the destruction is going swing so they can prepare for accordingly.

-- In contrast, Pandemic threat is not widely reported through the media outlets because it is not perceived as an immediate threat AND because the establishment got burned out on the "uniqueness" of this extremely rare threat.  Trust me, you will have to take a wait and see approach for the crush of world citizens searching for information on forums and other websites once H2H has been confirmed and has become "mobile".  

"They are also superior, since they have more probability estimates ! "
-- As BroncoBill pointed out, "That's because most people who are alive today have seen the destruction and death a hurricane can and will cause. There are very few, if any, people alive today who have seen the death rate of a pandemic on the scale of 1918."  Most intelligent people with a scientific leaning can make the connection between empirical evidence and statistical modeling as being successful and having little or no data to model a probability estimate could prove to be disastrous on a WORLDWIDE level. Imagine if a model predicted that a pandemic is expected to "start" in the next six months (based on imperfect data) what impact that would have on world commerce? Bad idea.

-- The reason that hurricane forecasters such as Tempest are able to "forecast" a hurricane event is that we have about 100 years of data for hurricane and weather data to enter into the myriad of different storm analysis tools to predict hurricane behavior.
-- In contrast, it has been almost 100 years since the last worldwide impacting pandemic and data from that event is near non-existent. How can you expect scientists to provide a probability estimate of a pandemic occurrence when, even now, 90 years after the event, we still don't have an accurate tally of everyone who was affected by H1N1 directly?  THE DATA DOES NOT EXIST on a level needed to accurately estimate the probability of its likelihood to mutate into a civilization busting event.

"tempest posting at fluwikie seems like playing in the minor leagues ;-) "
-- Perhaps Tempest has a higher calling and volunteers freely, time and effort to benefit fluwiki members rather than to challenge and insult for the purpose of self gratification.  :-)

Why do you throw out challenges to provide probability estimates (ad nauseum) and then provide the answers why they cannot be provided????
You have answered your own questions:
"flu-people are so reluctant to give probability estimates, hurricane people not. They have more data to play with, but not enough. You still see different opinions, different forecasting models."

A major goal of Fluwiki from the Flu Wiki Forum:: About Flu Wiki:
Before the present threat of an avian flu pandemic, these tasks were formerly ceded to local, state, national and international public health agencies. But no one, in any health department or government agency, knows all the things needed to cope with an influenza pandemic. The world is filled with competent others who are likely to have credible and useful information about some aspect of each of these tasks. By pooling and sharing our knowledge, we hope to advance both preparation for and the ability to cope with events as they unfold.

...
MiHi wrote:

gsgs wrote:
>> They are also superior, since they have more probability estimates ! "

also more features in the forums, more forecasters, just looks more scientific to me

> -- As BroncoBill pointed out, "That's because most people who are alive today have seen the
> destruction and death a hurricane can and will cause. There are very few, if any, people
> alive today who have seen the death rate of a pandemic on the scale of 1918."  
> Most intelligent people with a scientific leaning can make the connection between
> empirical evidence and statistical modeling as being successful and having little or
> no data to model a probability estimate could prove to be disastrous on a WORLDWIDE
> level. Imagine if a model predicted that a pandemic is expected to "start" in the next six
> months (based on imperfect data) what impact that would have on world commerce? Bad idea.

that wouldn't probably be called a "model" . There would be competing, different estimates.
Look, what we had in early 2005,2006 : serious scientists warning for panflu,
using words, rarely numbers. The impact on US-economy was $7B for 3 years,
mainly for vaccine production and antivirals stockpiling.
Was it wrong ? Too much ? Too little ? There was just no serious discussion
about it using estimates. Is it that what you want ? Bad idea.

> -- The reason that hurricane forecasters such as Tempest are able to "forecast" a
> hurricane event is that we have about 100 years of data for hurricane and weather
> data to enter into the myriad of different storm analysis tools to predict hurricane behavior.

that makes it easier and decreases the differences in opinion. But couldn't he do it with 10 years,
2 years too ?  How many years are needed ? The fact that tempest is maybe still better
than you or me, despite all the data seems to show that there is more than just the
data, room for interpretation,expertise,knowledge.
The less data, the more this is needed. Withholding it is just unresponsible, it leaves the
politicians with the task to make their own guesses, and they guess, so to increase
their popularity, not by their own scientific perception.

> How can you expect scientists to provide a probability estimate of a pandemic
> occurrence when, even now, 90 years after the event, we still don't have an accurate tally
> of everyone who was affected by H1N1 directly?

it's not just the data from 1918. Or 1957,1968. It's every little bit that we know about H5N1.
How it evolves, mutates,reassorts, spreads what diseases it causes etc.
It's also other flu, other viruses which can be compared. The whole spectrum which makes
some virologists think they are more competent then we and makes them issue
statements about the threat - unfortunately usually without specifying it as clearly
as the meteorologists do.

>> "tempest posting at fluwikie seems like playing in the minor leagues ;-) "
> -- Perhaps Tempest has a higher calling and volunteers freely, time and effort
> to benefit fluwiki members rather than to challenge and insult for the purpose
> of self gratification.  :-)

I'm not sure, what you mean. Of course tempest's contributions here should be appreciated.
But let's not forget that this is a flu-forum and others are specialized in hurricanes
and as a whole should have more expertise in hurricanes, in disasters.
They are more advanced than the flubies, they already use probability estimates,
which we still have to learn and it goes slowly.

> Why do you throw out challenges to provide probability estimates (ad nauseum)

cause it's important. The potential impact could be $2000B by a worldbank estimate.
That's why we are here. Should I stop because some fluwikians are nauseating ?

> and then provide the answers why they cannot be provided????

huh ? That's what I was trying to refute (ad nauseam)

> You have answered your own questions:
> "flu-people are so reluctant to give probability estimates, hurricane people not.
> They have more data to play with, but not enough. You still see different opinions,
> different forecasting models."

that's only an "excuse" of the flu-people, not a justification.
Since those estimates are presumably more controversial, we need them the more.
Before the laymen fill that gap due to lack of alternatives.

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
gs, if I may make this
request: this diary is for tracking hurricanes, tropical storms, and discussions thereof. Can this important diary be used just for that please?  

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com
[ Parent ]
good point!
Since I am guilty of responding to a rather juvenile 'thread baiting effort' I apologise.

B y all means, let's stick to the topic at hand.  It really does matter, even if you don't live on the Gulf Coast.
"
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS.

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR 300/8.  THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE NORTHERN GULF COAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THERE IS STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN.  THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND FORWARD SPEED.
"

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"

[ Parent ]
once upon a time,
there was a 'science' called phrenology.  The practioners thereof, many of whom were respected members of society, purported to be able to predict the personality and capability of individuals by 'analyzing' the shape of a person's skull.  (No, I am not joking!)
See the link here- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/P...

Often, it was used as scientific justification for racism and white supremacy, but true scientific inquiry demonstrated that the claims of phrenologists were not correct or accurate, and that there was much yet to be learned about why people are the way that they are. While the study of lumps on people's heads does not, in and of itself, provide any useful information, an objective review of this supposed science and the reasons for it's existence are worthwhile.

In particular, one lesson that can be learned is that it is valuable to know what you cannot yet know or quantify, to understand the present limits of understanding.  Without knowing what we don't yet know it can be impossible to push the frontiers of knowledge back further, or to ask interesting questions.  It is also worth knowing that people will try to wrap themselves in the mantle of science for a variety of ulterior reasons.  Another way to put it is that science is as much about proving what we DON'T know as it is about proving what we DO know.

I realize that I am probably wasting my breath here, but GS, I am neither distressed or upset that the things we don't know about influenza pandemics vastly outnumber the things we do know.  There is enough known for me to make reasonable limit state assessments of the possible outcomes, and because personal preparation and self-relience are already part of my family's skill set, I simply don't worry much about it. If and when it happens, then I will cope with it.  In the meantime, I stay prepared and move on with life.

I do find your increasingly shrill insistence that others provide you with probability estimates that are simply not possible to provide somewhat annoying.  The real stochastic world is a place where certainty and predictability in highly complex systems is hard to find.  Insisting in an insulting and demeaning manner that people could give you meaningful answers to these kinds of questions if they really really tried is growing very tedious to listen to.

Let me be blunt-
1)Reality is a chaotic place.  
2)We don't have all the answers yet.  
3) If you wish to function effectively in the real world with the rest of the grown-ups, you must learn to accept and cope with the limits of knowledge.

If you cannot do this, perhaps you would be happier studying phrenology?  I'm sure that there must still be some phrenologists around somewhere for you to talk to.  And at least you could get from them the kind of quasi-scientific authoritative pronouncements that more reputable scientists in the world of panflu are too responsible to give you.

best regards,

LMW



KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"

Thank you LMW and all
I couldn't have said it better myself.  GS clearly understands nothing about meteorology, models, intensity forecasting or else he'd realize that most of the people on the boards who have to go on what's available on the web but give probabilities anyway are pulling them out of their ass.  The official sources make a good attempt, but I guarantee you intensity forecast probabilities are quite nebulous even given the most up to date research and computer models.  Furthermore, the models are pointing at Louisiana one day, then Texas the next, then Pensacola the next.  It's foolhardy for someone like me to attempt such a thing.  You want to tell me that stats mean a damn thing with that?  Instead I rely on my understanding of the models, and my understanding of fluid dynamics to come up with the best forecast I can come up with.  A couple days ago, I said Louisiana was the most likely place of impact.  My probability estimate was implicit in that.  He wants numbers and such, and I'm afraid for gs, that he thinks he knows what to do with them when it comes to meteorology, but I'm pretty sure he doesn't.

Gs, I see you constantly sitting back and making unreasonable demands for statistics and you don't really know what you're asking for.  Why don't you get the stats from those other sites you mention and come back with your forecasts.  I think you'll be humbled rather quickly.  It's stupid, grow up, and give it up finally!  And don't expect me to respond to the kind of behavior you demonstrate in the weather diary.  It is a waste of typing.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
again and again
LMW wrote:
> I do find your increasingly shrill insistence that others provide you with
> probability estimates that are simply not possible to provide somewhat annoying.

they are possible, it had been done. Just unfortunately not by those who are usually
been quoted wrt. panflu-threat-statements.

You may check my multiple former threads since Dec.2005 here or on other forums or this:
http://www.setbb.com/fluwiki2/...

Tempest wrote:
> most of the people on the boards who have to go on what's available on the web
> but give probabilities anyway are pulling them out of their ass.

I'd be happy if Osterholm,Taubenberger,Leavitt,... would pull some numbers "out of their ass" too.
(as the NHC does)

> intensity forecast probabilities are quite nebulous even given the most up to date research
> and computer models

although they are "nebulous" the probabilities are being given. Not so with panflu.
The US-government leaves us in the dark. Hopefully the British will give their
estimates, they already have a risk-comparing-graphics.

> Gs, I see you constantly sitting back and making unreasonable demands for statistics
> and you don't really know what you're asking for.
> Why don't you get the stats from those other sites you mention and come back with
> your forecasts.  I think you'll be humbled rather quickly.  It's stupid, grow up, and give
> it up finally!  And don't expect me to respond to the kind of behavior you demonstrate
> in the weather diary.  It is a waste of typing.

I've been doing this since 2004, gave my own forecast dozends of times (last was 6% per year)
Those who know me here will know that you are just wrong.

The reader may decide.
see link above.  

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
so whose skull are you surveying,anyway?
Seems like you have decided to enjoy your phrenology, GS! Good luck with that.

Best wishes and Auf Wiedersen-

LMW

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"

[ Parent ]
sorry, I can't take it anymore
To everyone here:  I'm sorry, but I can't take it anymore.  I have a theory that when dealing with tiny children, you ignore their tantrums and bad behavior.  I understand how tempting it is to respond.  I'm doing it now.  So many times I've typed and then wiped it out, not willing to feed the childish egos.  BUT I HAVE HAD IT!  Irritating actions don't have to be rewarded.  We the majority, have the right and obligation to not respond.  No response usually makes the tiny tot stop their rotten actions or go elsewhere for attention.  When dealing with a two or three year old, ignore them.  Praise good actions, ignore the rotten ones.  We do not have the clout to clobber the rotten actions, so please just ignore them.  Let the threads stay on track by not responding to "trolls" or obnoxious children.  Why feed their egos?  Try it.  It just might work and we could have our forums back.  Rant over.
Good point!
THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST BRINGS IKE TO MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS AS IN THE
PREVIOUS SEVERAL NHC FORECASTS.

THE EYE HAS BEEN WOBBLING AROUND AGAIN BUT THE MEAN MOTION IS NEAR
300/8.  THE PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
SHOULD BE THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NEAR THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...IKE SHOULD
MAKE A TURN AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE.  THERE IS
STILL A QUESTION AS TO HOW SOON THIS TURN WILL BEGIN.  THE TRACK
MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT ON THE MOTION UP TO ABOUT 72 HOURS.
AFTERWARD THERE IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE TRAJECTORY AND
FORWARD SPEED.  

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"

[ Parent ]
Well said Quilter!
Responding to people so obviously seeking and craving attention is wasting your precious time because it only feeds the monster. They can never get ENOUGH attention. Silence is golden!

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     

[ Parent ]
Carol
A forum I use in the UK ( nothing to do with panflu) has an "ignore" button so that if a particular poster in your opinion hijacks the forum you can just elect not to see his or her posts.

The person still has the right to post but those who do not wish to"benefit" from them can opt out!

Usually it is a "Thanks  button that I wish for and this i the first ime I have fervently wished for an ignore button.

If it helps, gs is equally as unhappy with the conduct on other flu forums!!!

Emergency operations center pot luck
 Just a comment on the Emergency operations centers I've seen on the TV or tele.

 Many seem less than permanant.

 They look like a late night work session.

 Multiple desks moved around with lap tops and cables. People have paper taped to the PC saying Manager, Fire, Communications.

 Granted "emergencies are short term things" - that is a bad mind set.

 9/11 clean up lasted more than a few days, more than a week.
 Katrina took more than a few days or a week to recover from. Again the EOC folks where not only working overtime but other EOC folks came in to help.

 I'm not looking for a CIC from the USS Enterprise, I'm not looking for the bridge of the "USS Enterprise  NCC-1701" from Star Trek nor the bridge of Battle Star Galatica (new or original version).

 However I do hope every city has a large secure conference room with 1 week generator backup and UPS support. I hope they use network cables but have WIFI as a back up. WiFi does not have the bandwidth of 100meg or 1 gigabit cabgle connection.

 Just venting and hoping to help others. Pandemic will last more than a few days.  

Kobie

Weather Alert: Hanna and Ike | 135 comments
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