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Summary - Misconceptions, Existing and Possible

by: ssal

Sat Sep 13, 2008 at 03:07:35 AM EDT


last update: Oct 23, 2008

Potential number of fatalities: One of the most serious and seemingly widespread misconceptions is that in the "worst case scenario" for an H5N1 pandemic, the number of U.S. human fatalities would be about 1.9 million (e.g., CNN: http://www.cnn.com/2006/HEALTH... ) In truth, it is not possible to rule out that in a worst case pandemic the number of U.S. fatalities could be much greater.

Tara O'Toole, M.D., MPH, and Director of the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center's Center for Biosecurity, has reportedly speculated that 40 million Americans could die (Washington Post: http://www.washingtonpost.com/... ).

And not everyone agrees with him, but one of the world's foremost flu scientists, Robert Webster, has been quoted as saying, "50 percent of the population could die."  He also reportedly said that he had stored a three months supply of food and water at his home in case of an outbreak (ABC News: http://abcnews.go.com/WNT/Avia... ).

According to World Health Organization (WHO) statistics, the overall CFR (case fatality rate -  the percentage who die after coming down with a case of flu) has been over 60% for the laboratory-confirmed H5N1 cases that have occurred so far. In the three previous flu pandemics (1918, 1957, 1968) the AR (attack rate - the percentage of the population that become ill) in the previous three flu pandemics has been roughly 30% (federal government document (Fig 3a): http://www.pandemicflu.gov/pla... ). Assuming an AR of 30%, a CFR of 60%, and a US population of 300,000,000, this would work out to over 50 million deaths.  

The Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP) has pointed out that the CFR is  "a single criterion that will likely be known even early in a pandemic when small clusters and outbreaks are occurring" (CIDRAP: http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidr... ).

Indonesia is the nation that has so far experienced the most laboratory-confirmed human cases of H5N1 bird flu (130), with a CFR of over 80% (WHO: http://www.who.int/csr/disease... ). One of the best-known clusters of cases was a familial cluster of seven laboratory-confirmed cases in north Sumatra in April-May '06. Six died (U.S. government: http://www.pandemicflu.gov/pla... ; scroll down to Update II and download the pdf; see page 2 of the pdf). --ssal  

Human-to-human transmission: The misconception is that so far, the only human H5N1 cases that have occurred have been the result of bird-to-human  (often abbreviated "B2H") transmission (Crofsblogs: http://crofsblogs.typepad.com/... ). In fact, there is general agreement that beginning in Thailand in 2004 there have been several instances of H2H (human-to-human) transmission, although none yet that has resulted in sustained H2H transmission.  

In the seven-case cluster in north Sumatra (see above), HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt pointed out that there was apparent H2H2H transmission. There are other instances in which the occurrence of H2H2H transmission has been suggested.

A summary of clusters of human cases can be found at Pandemic Flu Information ( http://web.mac.com/monotreme1/... ). --ssal

Age and risk of death: The misconception / possible misconception is that from the standpoint of age, those who would have the greatest risk of death in an H5N1 pandemic would be infants and the elderly (as is the case with seasonal flu). Actually, people who are in the prime of their lives may also face a high death risk.  

In the 1918 flu pandemic, the deadliest flu pandemic of the last century "....most deaths occurred among young, previously healthy adults." (HHS: http://www.hhs.gov/pandemicflu... )

And, as can be seen in a World Health Association graph showing the outcomes of 373 laboratory-confirmed human H5N1 cases, the case fatality rate for people from 20 to 39 years old was 71%. For 10 to 19 years old, 76%. [For readers who have never seen it, the WHO graph is recommended viewing.] http://www.wpro.who.int/NR/rdo... --ssal

Government rescue:  HHS Secretary Michael Leavitt: "If there is one message on pandemic preparedness that I could leave today that you would remember, it would be this: Any community that fails to prepare with the expectation that the federal government or for that matter the state government will be able to step forward and come to their rescue at the final hour will be tragically wrong, not because government will lack a will, not because we lack a collective wallet, but because there is no way that you can respond to every hometown in America at the same time." (U.S. News & World Report:  http://health.usnews.com/usnew... ) --Kobie and ssal

Reliance on family/friends: The misconception / possible misconception is that if a pandemic happens, we can rely on family/friends. But if our family and friends have not prepared, they will not be able to take care of you.

If they have prepared, they may not be able to support you with their preps. -- cottontop

Number of Indonesian cases: Indonesia has arguably been the "hottest" human H5N1 case zone in the world. The misconception / possible misconception is that "officially reported" number of human cases in Indonesia in 2008 is accurate. Actually, the number is almost surely higher.

From the Flu Wiki diary, "Indonesia - September 9, 2008 to ...," a statement just under the "Indonesia Summary" table reads, "Unfortunately, the drastic decrease in suspected cases counted in recent months is attributable mainly to news restrictions in Indonesia.  This table should NOT be used to support the conclusion that suspected viral infections are decreasing in Indonesia." ( http://newfluwiki2.com/showDia... ) --ssal

More items are intended.

ssal :: Summary - Misconceptions, Existing and Possible
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General Comments
The intention is that the replies under this comment heading will relate to this overall diary in general and also to the subject of topic summaries in general.

This diary will hopefully be the "group" diary I mentioned in the "Ongoing topic summaries" diary I originally posted in May and updated yesterday. http://newfluwiki2.com/showDia...  

It is hoped that there will be at least a few other Wiki contributors who know of at least one specific misconception, existing or potential, that they think should be included here.


Reaction to "Potential number of fatalities" item above
Anything misleading? Erroneous? In need of improvement?

Do nothing camp is safe and comfertable
SSal,

 No correction just an observation for a solution. I heard one speaker talk about peoples reaction to pandemic as either "We all die" or "We find a cure and all live" Oddly they are one in the same - nothing need be done. Keep the status quo.

 If we are all gonna die then it is more the luck of the draw. So why do anything - its fate.

 If we are all gonna live then why worry - we are all gonna live. The nerdy guys adn gals in white lab coats will save the day so we can go back to ignoring them and watching Britney Spears or some other Pop Star.

 Fate and pain may be in each person's hands. Those who prepare and take precautions are less likely to suffer. That sort of personal responsibility is not often used.

  This uncovers another misconception - the government will save us.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
In response to ...
... your statement, "This uncovers another misconception - the government will save us," I have added the "Government rescue" item to the drafts lists. Since you brought it up, I would like to ask your permission to add  --Kobie  at the end of the item, indicating you are the contributor. (I was aware of Secretary Leavitt's statement, but for whatever reason it had not occurred to me to include it here.)

This seems to be a pretty straightforward item, and with your agreement, I will go ahead and have it be the first item moved out of the "drafts" status.


[ Parent ]
Add Kobie
Ssal,

 My answer is yes and I hope I know what I am agreeing to.

 Reasons for my belief:

 1) A national stockpile for 300 million plus 20 million (who knows how many) Illegal aliens for food, water, medicin, clothing and fuel is not only tremendus but has problems with transportation.

 2) One food does not fit all. Gluten sensitivity, no peanut oil/products, lactos intolerant, low salt, kosher, organic, vegan, etc all make having the right food for each person difficult if not impossible. Just setting up the database would be an invasion of privacy IMO.

 3) If we are all sick - so are the feds. They are not immune. They could be suffering just as much with H5N1, funerals, lack of power and communications.

 4) Unlike 1950, more government jobs are contracted out. Contractors can call in sick. Stockpilling is so 20th century.

 5) People who are prepared with supplies at hand are better off. They can feel good knowing their supplies are close by and they will not be cut off. The resources that would have gone to just getting people food can now be used to get them help or comfort.

 6) FEMA has a hard time dealing with one disaster at a time - having 1,900 katrina run concurrently would be devistating (that is another quote from Secretary Mike Leavitt)

 7) FEMA can only send the supplies they know you need. FEMA does not drop ship a container car to feed a city. Each city has different demographics for diapers, food, water, etc. Hence there will always be a delay between need, shipment, distribution and use.

 8) FEMA assumens the local municipal government is still functioning. If the locals fall short on competing for help the city falls short which makes it all the more difficult to get a handle on the problem and fill out the right forms. Local government will be tasked with feeding the homeless, the undocumented, running secondary care units, providing mental health services and social servicess more kids become orphans.

 9) Not the best of times. The whole country could be suffering. It is not like

 10) Ssal you are right - Secretary Mike Leavitt was clear in saying the government will not be able to send help. (I forget his original words but will look for them.) Normally when a high ranking government official puts that warning out in a press release people listen. Sadly not everyone has listened nor believed.  

 Sorry for the long post but I've had to defened my self from being called "chicken little", paranoid, conspiricy theorist and some ugly names. Since this is a "marathon, not a sprint" I've had time to do a couple reality checks and think out why I feel the way I do.

Regards,
Kobie


[ Parent ]
added my name as coauthor
It seemed right to go ahead and add my name as coauthor. If you have any objection to my doing that, please let me know.

[ Parent ]
Ssal - no. You too helped ignight and make contributions.
Ssal,

 I would claim intelectual property but they are not fully my original ideas. I've gotten soo much from others here. Much information, many corretions, the chance to author a few diaries.

 In some ways it is "E Pluribus Unum" (thank fuly that is on a quarter where I can read it ;-) but giving credit where credit is due helps fuel the discussion. Then when people have questions or corrections they know where to go.

 BTW - where will all this be compiled? A book? A website? A lecture tour?

Kobie

 


[ Parent ]
Right here, on the Wiki
I always try to reserve the right to change my mind, but right now that's all I'm thinking. The combined knowledge of all the Wiki contributors seems to make this the best place by far to try to do something like this.

[ Parent ]
Reaction to "Human-to-human transmission" item
Anything misleading? Erroneous? In need of improvement?

Reaction to "Age and risk of death" item
Anything misleading? Erroneous? In need of improvement?

I have a question, ssal ;-)
in order to put this in context.  Is this something you are writing up for a specific audience/purpose?  Or is this a general discussion for us here?  The reason is most of the points you make are extremely important but I have seen/heard them stated on a full range from one end to the other, by all sorts of people.  Most of the time, the reasons for the variation are obvious and/or legitimate.  Sometimes they are not.

So are you talking about misconceptions that the general public (the minuscule number who might know about it) hold?  Misconceptions that officials and/or scientists hold?  Or, most importantly, misconceptions being put out for the public by __ (fill in blank), wilfully or not?

I have various thoughts on this, but they may be completely irrelevant depending on what your context is.

Thanks,



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


I lifted the following...
...from my "Ongoing topic summaries" diary:

"As I envision them, most of the summaries would not be aimed at "flubies" - they would be aimed primarily at intelligent readers who may have inadequate or even no prior knowledge of a topic being summarized. People like our family members, friends, neighbors, coworkers, classmates, mainstream reporters and editors.

In addition to accurate, the main qualities I hope would be associated with the summaries are: clear, simple, easy to read, and well-referenced.  If there is part of a summary that might cause a reader to have to work to understand, there should be an effort to rewrite it. ..."

http://newfluwiki2.com/showDia...

Does that help?


[ Parent ]
thanks
as I said I have a number of thoughts, but I'm traveling today and will be in conference for the next 4 days.  I will write when I can.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Ease of Transmissibility?
I think you have identified areas where many who think about these things may have not thought enough, but how about the ease of transmission. Maybe there are not misconceptions there so much as a lack of appreciation. So far, the H to H cases have died out in the clusters, if not altogether. What if we got a virus that did not die out but did not spread like wildfire? Obviously, your points about CFR, vulnerable ages,etc. would apply but how would the system react to something that could be hidden for a while but then, clearly, be a mortal danger that is spreading slowly? I think SusanC is worried that insisting (say) on a high CFR makes it harder to communicate with authorities and changes the prep message rather little.  I am on the fence about that, but have not tried to warn officials as she has. To add to your list, are there misconceptions about the need to prevent social/system breakdown?

CFR - when is to high, too high??
Infomass,

 I see your point. So far I've only pushed for a recognition of the current facts - 60%. It can make for a more somber discussion. Yet I think it highlights the need to prevent catching the disease.

 To put things in context - There are a few, just a few, other disese with as high or higer fatality rates.

 I also fear that Emergency personnel and doctors will be disheartened if they are told 2% CFR and then start seeing 30% CFR. I would rather plan for 80% CFR, get the tears and fears out and end up with 40% CFR than the other way round.

 Your point about preventing social breakdown is worth its own high level post - IMO. Unlike Katrina where there was comaradarie of suffering there will be have and have nots during the pandemic. I'm already feeling guilty that my family jsut might have food, water, entertainment and safety while so many do not.

 Is this pre-survivors guilt??

Kobie


[ Parent ]
INFOMASS ...
Transmissibility and concerns about social/system breakdown are two exceptionally important topics that are at the very least worthy of summary diaries in and of themselves. (See "Ongoing topic summaries"

http://newfluwiki2.com/showDia...

Time permitting (it probably won't) I have been hoping to write a topic summary diary on mechanisms of transmission. For one thing, a few years ago when I began to look into this matter I called and talked to a local senior public health official (an M.D.) who was very firm in stating that when he treated flu patients, he was confident that if he stood six feet away from them there was no need to wear any kind of mask.  (!).

I definitely want to include something in the misconceptions list about transmission (the misconception that airborne transmission is limited to large-droplet transmission).

But I am almost overwhelmed with priorities and am also a slow writer. If you also feel that is an item that this should be included in this list, would you consider authoring (or coauthoring) it? (I plan to show the author of each item at the end of the item. E.g., for an item you contributed, it would be --INFOMASS

If you are interested in doing such, please write up a brief text for an item you think should be included and post it here.

Also, if you find you are thinking of numerous items, I will not be offended in the least if you see fit to compose and post your own separate diary on misconceptions.  


[ Parent ]
A retry on the link I tried to post just above:
[ Parent ]
Whish I had written this diary - thank you.
SSal,

 Hi. I wish I had written this.

 Another group of misconceptions -

  1) Ventilators will help or be of use during a pandemic. They will not be. The best thing is not to get sick. Any extrapolation on efficacy (sp?) or usefulness of treatment is based on a very, very small case list.

  2) The power will stay on. Rolling blackouts are part of the plan and have come up in webcasts.

  3) There is no pandemic and it will not happen. AIDS is a pandemic. Diabeties is a pandemic. H5N1 is spreading like a bad weed with no cure. It may not be H5N1 but bad stuff happens.

  4) Pandemics will kill either "kill everyone and we all die" or "we will have a vaccine and be safe"  The truth lies somewhere in the middle - IMO.

Kobie  


Diabetes
I've never heard of the notion of classifying diabetes as a pandemic.  It is not a communicable disease.


[ Parent ]
"epidemic" of obesity
In other words, there's a lot of it now.  Precision is lost when writers get sloppy (or lazy?).  :-|

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
pandemic of type 2 diabetes
Jane,

 ``Stemming the pandemic of type 2 diabetes is a public health priority and will require a multi-faceted approach,'' wrote Molly Kile and David Christiani, from Harvard University School of Public Health

Source: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/...

  I will let others debate "epidemic" v.s. "Pandemic" but pandemic and diabetes comes up often

Regards,
Kobie


[ Parent ]
Pandemic - wide spread
Clawdia,

 You are right - diabetes is not communicable

 The definition of Pandemic means wide spread.  "Definition: The definition of a pandemic used as an adjective simply means widespread, or general." (source: http://infectiousdiseases.abou... see also http://www.encyclopedia.com/do...  I like to think it means wold wide as that is part of the words latin root.

  Diabetes is more wide spread. Some link it to modern food - others to the use of atomic weapons others to a virus while others cite people living longer with less physical labor. The spculations are wild and varied.

 I wish I knew more but it seems like a rabbig hole - the deeper one looks the deeper the hole goes ;-)

 I hate to use diabetes and aids in the same sentance. It is only because they are becomming more widespread, along with other maladies.

 Pandemic is used to describe the growing presentation of diabetes around the world.  

 Hope that helps.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Kobie, I hope this diary won't stop you.
PLEASE do not let the existence of this diary stop you from putting together your own diary on misconceptions. Clearly you have a lot of good ideas. Each of us has our own little areas of superior ability, and there is little doubt in my mind that there would be ways in which your listing of misconceptions would be better than in this diary.
You could just give your diary a slightly different name and "have at it."  

[ Parent ]
Many hands make light work
Ssal,

 Hi. You tapped into some things I did not know I wanted to say.

 Also one of the stumbling blocks to effective communications are misconceptions. Different people seeing much of the same problem - but using different words. People either arguing over what they they think the other mean or because they feel they are not heard or are being overlooked.

 You diary will be good for TPTB and others to see what people misconceptions might be. Formulating a good message to help the public is not only giving out facts but combating their myths or misconceptions.

 I heard one comedian joke about water conservation by putting a brik in the toilet to reduce the water usage. He knew they had done it because the brick was not in the upper tank but in the lower bowl. Hey they followed the directions accroding to how they understood them.

 If only we had a clean slate to work with. Unfortunatly we do not. We have alot of people to work with and hopefuly an international audiance.

 Good diary - wish I had started it. I am am working on questions for Sept 25 HHS webcast and another diary: the pandemic EOC. The recent hurricane news has shown some EOCs which are makeshift rooms - not true long term command centers. 9-1-1 centers are better run.

 Unlike a hurricane, a city may feel the effects of a pandemic before the firs wave hits. IMO must operate teh EOC and PH folks befor the first wave hits so they are monitoring 24x7 for quck reaction and then must run in pandemic mode for several weeks - not days - weeks untill they can switch to recovery mode in preparation for the next wave which will hit a tired and pandemic worn city.

Onwards, upwards & kind regards,
Kobie


[ Parent ]
Misconception - the government will save us
SSal,

 Hi. There may be a misconception or myth that the government will save us.

 The government - local or federal - will provide food, medicins for heart, diabeties, ADHD, asthma, oxygen, etc, as well as water and fuel so we can go about our normal lives.

KObie


We can rely on family/friends
If family and friends have not prepared, they will not be able to take care of you.

If they have prepared, they may not be able to support you with their preps.

Either way, it's a loose/loose situation.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com


[ Parent ]
Worthy of its own high level entry
Cottontop,

 Good point.  I hope you re-enter this as a repy to the main article and not me.

 People will not be able to run home to mommy/daddy nor hudle together with family and friends as people are so spread out. Transportation, prep supplies, moving into a denser populated area or an area with less preparation all factor in.

 Also if people leave then who reamins to run the city? This is not a simple three day hurricane. It will be devistation without destruction.

 SusanC's pod principal of neighbors within walking distance sounds better.

 prepared neighbors can be a help. Unprepared neighbors or gangs can be problem.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
cottontop: What you say is definitely relevant. If you want to write it up, ...
... I'll almost surely include it in the drafts section.

[ Parent ]
Too stress my point in my above
comment, we had a cold front murge with the remnants of Ike producing a severe storm that done major damage to Watertown overnight. All the schools in my county were on a two hour delay, there was a no travel advisory, over 7,000 people were without power in my surrounding area, I lost my phone line, and to make matters worse, a caravan of power trucks left Watertown two days ago heading south. People are still without power now.

This morning I had friends calling my cell to see if I had power. I did and they wanted to come over. I knew exactly what they wanted. They wanted to eat, have coffee, and shower.

Now I'm all for helping people out, but how do you turn friends down nicely? I wouldn't have minded a family, as that was all I could have done. But 3 different families?
I felt horrible that I had to turn them away, but let one family come over. Had they been remotely prepped they wouldn't have had to rely on others to take care of them. And this was a minor event. I was prepared for one family, not 3. Guess I should have said I didn't have power. ;-(

They all comlained about the inconvience, the upset in their lives. My blood boiled but I was nice and told them they really should start putting some emergency supplies back. I got the same standard, old excuses.I just don't get it.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com


[ Parent ]
No doubt an item about this should be included. n/t


[ Parent ]
Misconception - I will get paid during a pandemic
SSal,

 Hi. Abother myth or misconception that many may have is that they will get paid.

 That if resteraunts, factories, schools & universities all shut down for three months that they will still get a paycheck.

 That the company will pay them or the federal government will "keep the economy going" becaue 2/3 of the economy is run by consumer spending." Yes spending not making payments on lay-a-way items, credit cards, car loans, etc.

 It has to be New purchsases. Which leads to another misconception - IMO - that stores will be open and (this is the kicker) they will be stocked!

 Hopefuly others will chime in and disagree, or agree with me.

Regards,
Kobie


Misconception - evacuation
Ssal,

 People may have the misconception that they can evacuate or "Run away" from a pandemic and go "some place safe"

 Hotels and convention centers will shut down. They may be coverted to alternate care site.

Kobie
"Run away, Run away" - Monty Python and "The Holy Grail"
P.S. I'm not intending to dominate your diary with posts. Darn I just wish I had written it. Good Job, good idea.  


Misconception that we're so advanced now
that we don't have to worry, we have lots of meds and lots of devices to treat the illnesses that used to kill people.  They don't know how stressed the healthcare system is now.  There's even a shortage of nurses.  Most people aren't aware of hospital by-passes that happen regularly, when ambulances are told, "Don't come here - I know we're the closest but we're full."  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

Technologicaly invinceble
Jane,

 Good point. I use H.G. Wells "The War of the Worlds" to illistrate how a great and technologicaly advanced civilization we could not stop was killed by a simple mindless virus.

KObie
"who could have imagined in the last days of the 19th century that across the gulf of space, minds imessurably superior to ours view this earth with envous eys. Slowly and surly they drew their plans against us" - "Jeff Waynes musical version of the War of the Worlds"


[ Parent ]
If you'll write this up, ...
... I'll try to post it as draft item. Also, it looks to me like this item would/should be a good candidate for an entirely separate, more in-depth topic summary.

[ Parent ]
Some elaboration on the original. Amend as necessary.
"If I get sick, I'll just go to the hospital."
Hospitals especially emergency rooms are overcrowded now.  They regularly go on "by-pass", that is, they tell ambulances not to come there because they are full, so go to a more distant hospital.  

"Medical care is more advanced than it was in 1918; any treatment I need, I'll be able to get."
Advanced medical care is dependent on electrical machines, supplies, and doctors and nurses.  In a pandemic, all will be in short supply if available at all.  Ventilators require sustained meticulous care from many medical staff members, as well as electrical power and supplies.  Most ventilators are in use today, when there is no medical crisis in the community, so they won't be available for the surge in patients during a pandemic.  Also pandemic influenza is so devastating in many patients that ventilators are of no use anyway.  

Medications we use are largely imported from other countries, or their ingredients are imported, so they will become unavailable during a pandemic.  Hospitals rely on supplies being delivered weekly if not daily; they keep little supplies on hand.

Today there are many people who live with chronic medical conditions that would have killed them in past times.  They rely on daily medications and machines that use electricity; some treatments need medical workers, dialysis, for example.  In a pandemic, these people won't be able to survive.

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
Diary on this issue "The Irrelevance of the Health Care System during a Pandemic"
was started in Dec. 2007.  My quickly-done summary follows (but the diary is worth reading in its entirety):

One, hospitals won't be able to cope with the numbers of ill and worried well seeking care.

Two, doctors and nurses shouldn't even be asked to care for flu patients because there is so little they can do.  It won't make a difference to the patients, and it puts valuable HCWs at risk of death for nothing.  Better to train people to provide home care and answer home caregivers' questions on the  phone or internet.  Later comments recommend triaging flu patients if they can be helped by IVs and other hospital-centered care, so long as supplies last anyway.

Three, health needs other than panflu will arise as usual.  Doctors and nurses will be needed to treat these, but flu patients should be elsewhere- (how to quarantine or be sure heart-attack patients don't have the flu?)

Four, the public health system will be crucial in helping stop the spread of influenza.

Five, local solutions have been developed, Seattle-King County and Minnesota-CodeReady, for example.

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
Misconception - People Will Believe Facts
I think there is a general misconception that when a pandemic begins people will believe the dire warnings and even the statistics concerning the arrival of a pandemic.  Simply put, there will be a large "it can't be that bad" population even when informed of the danger.  (Recent example is the 20% of Galvestonians which refused to evacuate.)  But the numbers of those who will refuse to face the facts in the beginning of a pandemic will be much larger because:
1)they will feel there is nothing they can do (same reason they do not prepare now)
2)their minds will rebel from accepting the fact (again, same reason as now)
3)they will not accept it until the "storm surge water" is lapping at their doorstep

A goodly percentage will believe and react.  But I believe there will be a surprising percentage which will gape in dumbfounded disbelief until the last moment.  Hard and important decisions needed early on by government officials will be made that much more difficult due to these folks.


You may be right.
What you are saying seems to be a mixture of opinion and fact (Galveston). And you may be right. At the very least, it seems to me there should be a discussion diary on this important matter. It may be there are already some good references in support of what you are saying?

If you want to write up an item for inclusion in this list, do so and post it here. Then, I'll try to post it as a draft item.  


[ Parent ]
That's about it
I just wanted to express my opinion concerning an apparent belief by some in flublogia that if people just knew the facts they would prepare.  I think that when it has fired up and roaring into a viral inferno there will still be large numbers which will refuse to believe what they see and hear on tv or the internet.  Or if they believe they will refuse to react as needed.  Sometimes people are quite good at lying to themselves.

[ Parent ]
agree n/t




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Myth - health - home - Used milk jugs can be used to store drinkable water
Ssal,

 Hi. One thing I learned here is that used milk jugs can not be used to store drinkable water later.

 Reality - milk jugs keep bacteria that can not be cleaned out. Milk jugs will leak after a while.

 I believe used milk jugs can be filled with water and frozen to make ice hours before you need them.

Kobie  


Myth - skill - personal - men know how to build a fire and cood over it.

 I have seen several folks who do not know how to build a fire, carry / use a hatchet nor cook over coals nor fire nor being good at putting out a fire and not building a fire on the ground (when possible)

 Learning how to start charcole with out lighter fluid is - IMO - a dying art.

 Cooking, not microwaving, is something I would like to see people try. I deffer to Kathy in Florda.  

 Having an alternate way to cook is important. I think Lugon had a sand and kerosene in quart sized metal can stove that was pretty cool. Alcohol stove made out of two soda cans.

 Myth is "we can just build a fire" like they do in the movies.

Kobie


reaction to "Government rescue" item
Anything misleading? Erroneous? In need of improvement?

Hurricane Ike just showed again that government response won't be enough.
And that's in a limited, if wide, geographical area.  The Chicago Tribune told of first responders who couldn't help because they were out of fuel.  Water and ice (and food; I don't remember) were delivered to Houston? by a radio station that asked their sister stations for help, because prepositioned supplies were being held.  Not sure if this is the same locale where officials weren't delivering supplies because they wanted to discourage people from returning, as the power, water, and sewage were not functioning.    

(Sorry, this is from memory and I don't have a link; due to heavy rain, we've had no phone or internet service for 3 days, and I'm on a pc in DH's office instead of my usual Mac - no pc skills.)

In a nation-wide catastrophe, there's absolutely no way every city and town can have supplies delivered to them, is there?  Is there a way of dramatizing this?  There was a test of having letter carriers deliver packages to one community, as a simulation of delivering medication (i.e. Tamiflu).  The postal workers may have even had a police escort.  The test worked, IIRC, but then the packages were small, and there were enough stockpiled for everyone.  Food and water are a whole 'nother thing.  As those of us who have been building our pantries know, it takes a lot of space to store food for one family.  Either we all do our part or not, but there's no way outside help is coming.  A pandemic is worse than an earthquake in a developing country; there will be no planeloads of goods delivered from other countries because all countries will be in need.    

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
This may not be a reply that you expected, ...
... but in the June '07 issue of Consumer Reports there was an article on the best laptops and pc's for the Windows Vista operating system.  

For laptops, the winner was a Mac. For desktops, a Mac came in third behind two Dell models. Macs can run Windows, but a question I would ask your DH is,"How many pc's (non-Macs) can run Tiger or Leopard or any other Mac OS?"


[ Parent ]
I thought Vista was a bust.
Why would I ask my DH your question?   (Do you like Macs?)   Sorry, I missed your point, I guess.  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
Sorry I didn't communicate better.
Unfortunately, it is by no means the only time I've been guilty of ineffective communication.

Yes, I'm a Mac fan. Over the years, we've used several Macs and one Windows pc. The Macs are our favorite by miles, and as long as Macs are available I feel sure my wife would not consider getting another pc. (Yes, each of us has veto power.)

When I wrote the reply, the main thing I was thinking is that since 1) you know how to use Macs, 2) Macs can also function as pc's, and 3) pc's cannot function as Macs, your husband might be willing to consider a Mac the next time he gets a new computer.

And probably saying it like that (the paragraph just above) is a lot better than trying to use a pointed question. (A little earlier Monday night I had engaged in a political debate with someone, and when I have to do that I almost always get into the frame of mind of trying to formulate a short, simple question, the truthful answer to which cuts to the heart of the matter.  It seems clear that without stopping to think about it, I was still in that frame of mind when I wrote the reply to you.)
 


[ Parent ]
Fuel for fire - PCs, Macs and Amigas all run Linux. "There can be unity in Origin" - The Ori (ha ha ha) ;-) n/t


[ Parent ]
...
depends on what you mean by 'pc' vs 'mac'...  if you mean hardware/chipset, google 'vmware os x'.....   the mac that most folks think of today, is really just a gui front-end running on a unix variant..  bearing very little resemblance to its ancestors with the toolbox on rom.

[ Parent ]
DH has pc at work
so he uses one at home for ease of transferring his work.  His office only has pc.  He likes Macs and has a couple, but his office didn't have easy wireless for me to use my own Mac there.  There were a couple of screens of instructions to install (something), but I didn't want to download some pc stuff just for a few days, so I took the easy way and used the office pc in the basic way that I knew.  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
I think I've learned a little bit about how ...
... Roseanne Roseannadanna must have felt.

[ Parent ]
Space - it used to be under my bed
Jane,

 Not just food. Toilet paper and paper towels takes up alot of room - but it light. Bath soap and shampoo - not too bad.

 Fuel - diversity. I'm sorry to hear that but hope it wakes people up. When we had our tropical storm they found out the tank under the generator was only good for two days then it needed to be refilled.

 My city was/is so unprepared that I feel sorry for the way EOC folks have to suffer.

 Jane I think you dramatized it - now to reach more people.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Myth - home - we have enough food
 Those that have seen teenagers stare into a refridgerator or pantry and say "ohhh, we have nothing to eat" becuase food need to be microwaved will laugh.

 Seriously - people have alot of ingrediants but not always enough ingrediants to make a full meal. They may lack eggs or oil or the meat for a dish. Most often they have boxes of cereal but no powedered milk.

 Also people do not check expiration dates.

Kobie  


Myth - personal - I'm gonna die

 People believe they will die during a pandemic. Not just think but fall into a paralyzing panic that can stop them from prepping.

 Ok, granted we all die at some point. "Life - you do not get out alive" but some folks think "this is it for them"

 The same folks who can not tell me the weather next week, where they will vacation next year or what they will have for lunch tomorrow feel certian that a pandemic will not happen. But when it does, they know they will be one of the ones that do not make it.

 Yes these are the same folks who are changing the world and doing something about global warming but can not do anything about a possible pandemic. My mind can not understand.  

 Personaly I'm scared too but am planning on living comfertably during the pandemic though I make a lower middle income salary. I'm not a rock star that can fly off to some safe place.

 If we can do it - so can alot of others.

Kobie

 


Reaction to "Number of Indonesian Cases" item
Anything misleading? Erroneous? In need of improvement?

Indonesian reports are misconception.
Ssal,

 Sorry. It is a cheap shot to say I have little faith in the indonesian reports.

 I'm not as bothered by them as I once was. Containment and eradication of H5N1 is not seen as a viable solution.

 Hence, Indonesia is but one of many potential hotspots. The pandemic may break out from another place. We will develop a vaccine from that. Indonesia can keep their "viral soverenty" for we will develop other solutions.

 If some Jarkata strain does infect others, then when it spreads we will develop a vaccine based on that and once again Indonesia comes up short.

 I do feel bad about all the experiance and case information being lost or kept quiet. We are all in this together.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Vax
Hey Kobie - don't you think China already has the latest Human sequences from Indonesia and probably has a working vaccine?

There is a method to Supari's madness and Indonesia & China are the recipients of any good that comes from it.

Tell the truth


[ Parent ]
Never walk alone - good point
Goju,

 Hmmmm, yea I could see that. It still bothers me but there are several countries that feel bigger each time they stand up to the U.S., even if it does not acomplish anything.

 H5N1, or what ever becomes the next pandemic, is just a bad thing to play with on the international stage - IMO.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Pandemic: "I can't do anything" or "can't do anything to stop it"
  Some hold or hide behind the frustrating myth "Its a pandemic, you can't do anything"

 The same people who belive they can stop global warming, save the whale, save the children or protect the earth feel powerless to help themselves.

 Bunk. Pure and simple.

 Where is the guilt or problem in saving yourself? Do they not buy compact florecent light bulbs to save the air they breath? Do they not use cloth bags for shopping to reduce plastic grocery bags?

 As Lugon would point out - "there is an overlap between pandemic preparation, living off the grid and peake oil." During a pandemic one may need to generate their own light and heat. Growing ones own food helps.

  It is a myth that people can not help themselves. We help ourselves and others all the time.

  It is a myth that there is nothing one can do to prepare for a global devistating pandemic. 1) stock up on food, read and practice hygine, get ready to shelter in place for a few weeks.

  It is a myth that there is nothing one can do to stop a pandemic. Social distancing helps stop the spread of disease. Monitoring birds and survailance is key to early detection and eratication. Intense medical research may help find a partial cure but I'd make plans otherwise.

Kobie



Erratication and quarantine will stop a pandemic
  India is a good example showing that eradication or quarantine will stop bird flu from spreading.

 True - they help. They definatly help but it is a mitigation technique not a cure.

 Bird Flu continues to spread by smuggling or hiding of birds. Some wild birds or animals may also spread the virus.

Kobie


We have plenty of time to prepare
  There is always plenty of time to do something when it does not have to be done. That is until time runs out.

  When disaster or the pandemic strikes three things to consider:

 1) You will be competing with alot of other folks.
 2) What do you need to get?
 3) If you get a bunch of stuff - how long will it last you?
 4) How much experiance, skill and training do you have? I've seen people have problems the first time they tried doing something.

 IMO we are way behind the curve. I've said it before - "A pandemic is not the time to stand around exchanging business cards asking 'So what do you do'? "

 It would be better to have trained folks with one, two or three years of pandemic experiance under their belts.

 Prepared people will put less of a strain on local leaders. As Admiral Agwunobi said "I can not lead people who are unprepared to follow." The same goes for local folks.

 They are our local leaders responsible for our well being.  

Regards,
Kobi


We have plenty of time to prepare
GREAT!!!!!!

Opps - i didn't read the rest... go ahead and ruin my perfectly wonderful DOW dropping, CDC hanging us out to dry, day.

Tell the truth


[ Parent ]
So much more than CDC,
Goju,

 Thanks for letting me know these are read.

 I wondered if the ideas showed an intuitive grasp of the obvious or just bad ideas.

 IMO its so much more than the CDC, HHS, DOE, OSHA, etc. Yes they have made rules and must enforce them but so far nothing. In a HHS webcast the host Mrs McCarthy asked my question "if my boss does not follow the OSHA pandemic guidelines what recourse do I have." The guy on the spot mumbled nothing.

 It is what the local cities and towns do to prepare that is important. They run the water and sewer systems - not the government. The local folks co-ordinate the local effort - not the big wigs in far off buildings.

 It is the average Joe, the man and woman on the street, that will do the majority of the work, the suffering, the crying, the dying and the burials.

Regards,
Kobie


[ Parent ]
But -
I don't think our local leaders are responsible for our well being - I think perhaps they should be, and I think in a sense they are being paid to be.  Since I realize they aren't, or at least aren't doing a very good job at it, I feel that I'm responsible for my own well being.

I cannot accept that they are responsible - goes back to, if you want something done right, do it yourself.  Think about it - do you really want to trust the well being of yourself and your family to some of these people?

I don't.  


[ Parent ]
Well being - ohh so many definitions
Clawdia,

 Local leaders are responsible for public health. Clean water, tracking disease, resteraunt inspections, etc.

 Now they are not responsible for my health. I can smoke a cigarett or cigar in my house - but not publicly. I can own a car and knife - though cars adn knives kill thousands each year. I can eat a twinky or even the southern delicacy of a deep fried twinky.

 I can go to a bar, get drunk, meet someone and then find out the next morning that was not such a good idea. The doctor may or may not have a cure.

 Clawdia local leaders are also responsible for the financial health of a city. Bringing in jobs, giving out services, education. Making sure there is no embesselment of funds and that employees can not sue for sexual harrasment.

 Sigh. I know many mayors have failed, people have died and suffered and then the mayors get re-elected. It boggles my mind and stymies my heart. My jaw drops when I hear it.

 Let me be specific - if the sewer plant fails so raw sewage is released it is the city that is fined. If the fire department does not show up and buildings burn - the city is at fault. If the police fail to do their job or beat someone up it is the cities fault. If the water fails and people die of dehydration because the did nothing that is the cities fault. If there is no money for trash collectors and the trash piles up - who's fault is that? Often the cities.

 During a pandemic the city better have their ducks in a row. If the government is smart they will set things up so they clearly told the city it is there responsibility.

 Just a thought.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Pandemics will not happen
  Another myth some hold is Pandemics are a thing of the past. It is not worth preparing for. We have technology and are safe.

 (shudder) It scares me just to write such wrongs.

 Ohh yes, other things might happen. Mt St. Helen might erupt. Yellow stone might be a super volcano. The stock market could crash for reasons we have not seen or reasons people forgot about. An asteroid could hit the earth and wipe things out. It might be something small like my loosing my job.

 But not a pandemic. Why? I'm not sure. Polio, small pox, bubonic plauge, TB are all still around and kept at bay only because of vaccines. There is no H5N1 or H9N7 vaccine.

 H5N1 continues to spread like a bad weed and yet no one takes notice. Kinda reminds me of AIDS. We do not have a vaccine for that one either. H5N1 will not need personal contact to spread. All the infection without the whoopie.

Regards,
Kobie


All the infection without the whoopie.
That sounds like a good bumper sticker, but is it X-rated?    ( LOL - snort)  Good one, Kobie!

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
Sometimes they just come to me.
Jane,

 I'm glad you liked it. A little humor helps. Hopefuly it adds a touch of fear as well.  

 "Whoopie" is not x-rated. However I'd hate to have a 9 year old boy or girl ask me from the back seat of a car "What is whoopie?".

 YMMV by country as many words that are fine in the USA do not fly in the UK - just ask "Austin Powers - man of mystery"

  I just can not see how people ignore the danger.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Myth - I have done enough to tell others.
  Ohh ain't this a wild statement.

 Befor throwing stones at me hear me out.

 1) Have you printed pandemic information and left it out at work.

 2) Have you printed out the WHO graph of death by age? (Source: http://www.wpro.who.int/NR/rdo...

 3) Have you printed out OSHA guidelines for pandemic preparation
Health care workers: http://www.wpro.who.int/NR/rdo...
Work Place : http://www.osha.gov/Publicatio...

 4) Have you sent out any emails about the stories here. Even if it just raises awareness like "Body of dead aristocrate exhumend for flu information"

 5) Have you started to prepare?

 6) Have you tested your preps?  Did you make corrections after wards. I did.

 7) Have you left any pandemic info out at church, house of worship, civic center?

 8) Have you tried contacting friends and family about a pandemic? Note: those who are pregnant really do not want to hear about pandemics. Just a word of caution.

 I have spoken up. Those who do not want to listen, or listen yet have told me. They can not come back to me later and cry "Ohh if you knew why didnt you tell me. You email/tell me internet jokes and other things..." In this respect my conciounse is clear (even if I can not spell conciounse)

  Honestly it will not kill nor hurt you.

  I know many do not want to do a presentation but for those thinking about it - please do. I encourage you. Even if it is a static display, you will be doing more than many others.

Regards,
Kobie


Excellent, Kobie! :-) n/t


[ Parent ]
We are all under the spot light
Bronco Bill,

 Thank you and most welcome.

 It would be wrong to cast a spotlight on others without putting atleast myself there as well.

 There really is alot we can do. While many moan about the lack of awareness there are victories.

 Our own Prepared Citizen has gotten herself and GetPandemicReady.org added to her emergency management's web site
Source: http://www.monson-ma.gov/Publi...

 Putting out the information for others to stuble upon does work.

 BTW - some libraries allow stuff to be posted. I'm supries that more grocery stores are not open to the idea though.

Kobie
"We the people...."


[ Parent ]
now is not the time to fade!
There truly is an awareness building and it is a positive one. There is still the misconception (at least I hope it is) that people will panic. I agree that they haven't so far and I am hoping that if enough already "adjusted" (at least we think we are - personally i expect more ups and downs) folks speak words calmly and clearly, with transparency and firmness there won't be panic. The teller is not panicking and it becomes a competition to not panic, but that is just my opinion.

Anyway, thanks for mentioning this little victory today to "the troops" in this battle for awareness.  

Pray for all people and rulers
1Timothy 2:1-4

(Extending the culture of life.)

http://preparedcitizens.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
Now is the time to grow
StandingFirm,

 Now is the time to grow when we have time and there is little confusion.

 Little confusion? I fear that as the pandemic grows nigh the idiots will come out of the wood work.

 Instead of having many newbies, many clean slates, to work with there may be alot of "un teaching" and correction to be done.

 Some of this is based on my own personal experiance. Things I have had to un-learn about H5N1, storing water in used milk jugs, vents, etc.

 Now is a good time to spread the word.

Kobie

   


[ Parent ]
I agree with Bronco Bill ....
This is really good stuff! Is it not worthy of an entirely separate diary, initiated by its ideological creator, to develop it to its optimal extent?

[ Parent ]
"This little light of mine, I'm gonna let it shine"
Ssal,

 You are very kind.

 "ideological creator" - wonder how that looks on a business card. (half joking, half not, all humility as I am in the same boat you are)

 The great thing about the flu wiki, and those paying for its upkeep, is how it lets all of us be seen by the many - not the few.

 DemFromCT was kind enough to create the HHS diary for the Sept 25th webcast. After or while the EOC diary is being created I'll revamp the "So you want to send an email" to be "20 ways to move your neighbor"

(music starts)
 Under a great pandemic fear I labor
 Knowing there must be twenty ways to warn your neighbor
 Get with the plan, stan
 Send an email, gail
 Tell em 'bout the flu, boo
 Drop a flyer and leave, steve
 Don't make a fuss, guss
 Just set them all free.

  Ahh if only the musicians and PSA folks would carry the idea. Actually the GIECO cavemen would be great. Talk about survivors.

 For we all have the power to do something. It is a myth that great things are done by a single person. Buildings are built by many hands. Rocket to the moon was built by many technitions. The sun does not burn bright by the work of a single atom - but shines with the outporing of the many.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
LOL, Kobie!
Oh, no!  You're gonna be in my head the rest of the day!!
Loading up rice, Bryce
Counting those beans, Jean....
Thank you Kobie.  You are an inspiration!

[ Parent ]
Good second chorus!
Swann,

 I hope the song sticks in other peoples minds.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
responses-
1) Yes, and I still do. At the new job even. In my first month, yet.
2)Yes.  powerful tool.
3)Yes, and got myself powerfully disliked by the safety wonks trying to say there was no threat to phlebotomists.
4)yes.
5)Yes.
6)Yes, I use my preps when travelling and yes I have had to make adjustments and improvements.
7)Yes, and other places.
8)Not tried, did.

I've done lots of other things too.

This is what self-sufficient communities do.

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"


[ Parent ]
Way to go! Need more people like you.
LMWatBullRun,

 Wish I had token or T-shirt to pass out signifying your accomplishment. For now a public entry on the fluwiki will have to do. Note: and you lived to see another day. Telling folks is not all bad.

 ReadyMoms and others are doing presentations and talking to friends and family.

 Hopefuly this will encourage others to say something. At least leave a flyer out.

Regards,
Kobie


[ Parent ]
The price for speaking out-
I haven't had to pay that yet;  I have the 'credentials' to make my statements credible, and I am careful to couch my presentations and information in a low-key style and caveat with the fact that there is much we don't know yet, to maintain my credibility.  The result is that I have not had the sort of violent pushback that others have encountered, in part because I am very well aware of the Iron Law, and because I don't push as hard as I might.

That said, I do expect that if a pandemic starts in the near future, I will have friends and relatives showing up uninvited at my place, and I will have to tell them that there is 'no room at this inn'  for them.  Some may try to force their way in and if that happens they will find out about some other preparations I have made.  That will be the day that I have to pay the price for speaking out, and it will be a heavy price indeed.

As Gordon Dickson put it, the coming times will be 'Iron Years'......

LMW

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"


[ Parent ]
Already had to say no.
LMWatBullRun,

 The "there is no room at the Inn" thing is tough. I've already gotten sour looks for saying no to co-workers and such. I do not feel good about it.

 This is about preparing them - not me. I've already got the message.

 What about strangers who have heard "you know how to prepare?"

 Risking my life during a pandemic is one thing - but family?

 BTW - those who have gotten the message know not to expect me nor vice versa. Kinda sad.

 I have no answer for this one - yet.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Are there any "pandemic" T-shirts or bumper stickers?
Does anybody know if there are any T-shirts or bumper stickers yet for raising awareness?  For example, a "ReadyMoms" T-shirt or a GetPandemicReady bumper sticker?

[ Parent ]
bumper stickers would help a lot
Let me see what I can do. It may take me a few days.

If anyone else out there wants to take this on as a project, as Kobie says, "many hands make for light work".

Pray for all people and rulers
1Timothy 2:1-4

(Extending the culture of life.)

http://preparedcitizens.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
link doesn't work
When I click on the link for your Web page (the one that appears on the standingfirm page), it appears to be broken.

[ Parent ]
It's a bug in the software that we're working on...
If you cut n' paste (or just type it in your address bar) the actual URL-- http://preparedcitizens.wordpr...
it should work fine...

[ Parent ]
What Would My Great Grandma Say To Me ?
  Great post on Sept 23rd.

 Easy to understand.
 People can relate and say "I could do that"
 Works - clean, be resiliant, hard work.
 Simple
 Affordable
 Do able
 No special training required

 Yeah. Good post.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
FluWiki Shirt
Ssal,

 T-Shirts.

 1) Plain T-Shirt with the instructions on the back
   A) Cover your cough
   B) Wash your hands
   C) Social Distance
   D) Get Pandemic Ready
  (list of favorite web sites)
  (GetPandemicReady.or
   PandemicFlu.gov
   if your state has a pandemic web site)

 I got one from my state and wear it.

 2) (my favorite)
   FluWiki logo with the words
Top    "Trained pandemic prepper"
Bottom "If you see me prepping, please try to keep up"

 As for bumper stickers - hmmmm.
"In the event of a pandemic this car will be empty" does not quite make it. Any suggestions???

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Myth - personal - "I would not hesitate to do CPR during a pandemic"

 How many have thought about the pandemic and their CPR or wilderness first aide card?

 Will a pandemic reduce the number of people to give first aide at a time when EMT and HCW are overwhelmed?

 Good samaritan only in fair weather or just common sense?

 Will CPR classes include H5N1?

 Yes they have H5N1 certified CPR masks.

Kobie

 


CPR? During a pandemic? BY MOUTH?
Fuhgeddaboudit!

On my family, maybe.  On a stranger?  Not on your life!

This is only part of the collateral damage that a pandemic will inflict.


KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"


[ Parent ]
"Fuhgeddaboudit! " - Can I quote you on that ;-)
LMWatBullRun,

 I can not pronouce that word but it comes through loud and clear.

 My reaction was much the same. I agree that it will cause more collateral damage.

 It is not just the mouth to mouth but being that close to a possibly infected stranger. Kinda like being told that drug resistant TB was prevelant in people I might be called on to help.

 It is just one more thing to think through. For if fewer amatures (those with just a CPR/AED) card stop then that puts more of a strain on EMT folks at a time when they are already overworked.    

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Recent advice is that chest compressions work
when used alone on one type of patient.  I don't remember which condition, but I'm not sure a layman could tell the difference anyhow.  It's worth trying.  A patient who isn't breathing at least isn't coughing or sneezing on his rescuer.

My first First Aid class was in grade school, when the model/patient was described as a victim of drowning.  He was turned onto his stomach, with the rescuer at his head.  (Some attempt should be made to empty the water before starting, but I don't remember the details.  A heart attack victim wouldn't have that concern, but the airway should be clear.)  First the ribs/back were compressed, then the patient's arms (which had been bent at the elbows with hands at the head) were pulled up to expand the chest.  (I think they were pulled towards the ceiling rather than parallel to the floor.  It was a long time ago.)

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
CPR has changed alot - alot
Jane,

 They changed the rules just after my last course. It is now something like 30 compressions and two breaths because moving the oxygenated blood to the brain is more important than filling the lungs with air.

 Chest compressions do move some air in and out.

 Also it is not easy to fill the lungs without fillng the stomach with air. I've been told many who get CPR vomit afterwards.

 My card runs out this month so I hope to get re-certified. So far no word on that.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
no pat answer....
For me: I would if I had already been exposed and recovered.
I also would on a stranger if I had the right kind of resuscitation masks, which I do not have sorry to say.
And I would on a family member without a mask because I don't think that I could stop myself....but I am aware that there may be circumstances where I would not be able to assist a family member nor would I expect them to do mouth-to-mouth on me.

I would not speak against someone who could not or would not do mouth-to-mouth without a mask during an infectious disease emergency. Having access to masks and proper instruction on how to use them changes the dynamic a bit for me. Having access to such masks would tend to increase the responsibility for using them to benefit others.

Then again, that is just me and my 2c. This is one of those personal ethics areas that has no hard and fast rules, nor should it.  

Pray for all people and rulers
1Timothy 2:1-4

(Extending the culture of life.)

http://preparedcitizens.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
reaction to "Reliance on family/friends" item


cottontop: does it look OK?
I've reorganized and reworded what you wrote a little bit. Is there anything you see that you would like for me to change?

[ Parent ]
Hi ssal. Looks fine to me. Thanks. n/t


United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com


[ Parent ]
Myth - work - food - I can go out for lunch or have it catered
 Many people do not brown bag it today. They go out for lunch or it is catered in.

Also many gather around the table for lunch in the break room or cafateria.

 During a pandemic the only place I would like to eat is in my car. It is sealed off and I can listen to the radio (NPR, 80's rock or 70's country, Rush Limbaugh, Classic Rock, techno - lots of range just can not find blugrass. Got to ge Sirus or XM for that)

 My point is that even lunchtime will change greatly during a pandemic.

 During a pandmic will anyone:

 Go out to lunch?
 Having an office party?
 Have a birthday / retirement party?
 Have a class taught?
 Have a meal catered ?
 Eat together in a small room ?
 Eat in a large public cafateria ?

 The answers are left as an exercise for the student.

Kobie
"To be a light for those who want to learn, entertainment for those not yet ready to learn and a nuisance to those who refuse to learn"  


Easy answer . . .
This 'student' says "no" to all of the above - because people will not be going to work during a pandemic.

And, to those few who might be doing so, all those things would be so far down on anyone's priority list as to be totally irrelevant.


[ Parent ]
Some must work - right?
Clawdia,

 Those working during a pandemic might include:

 Firemen - who also sleep in open area, not private rooms.
 EOC personel.
 Government - lets hope they come to work.
 Water treatment folks - big open labs with only a few offices.
 Sewage treatment plants - "aint been there but they tell me its nice." Not as bad as one thinks.
 Hospitals - HCW. IT and Admin staff seem off the hook so far.
 Satilight care facilities - Hope they get lunch.
 Blood drives and Red Cross facilities - its bad when the blood stops flowing.
 Nuclear power plant operators - Industrial, civilian, DoD and DoE (energy not education. Wish Dept of Ed had a small plant for field trips, but that is another matter [LoL])
 Police stations
 Jails
 Mental Health facilities
 TV & radio stations

 The list goes on.

Kobie
Well done is better than well said.


[ Parent ]
A different view . . .
Certainly some will work - but whether they come and go is stil open for debate.  I think most people who work will also live at work - isolated from possible contact with the virus.  

I get the feeling that you are having difficulty accepting how very different the world would be for all of us in the event of a pandemic.  I don't think that things like blood drives will exist, for starters.

I think we'll be fortunate indeed if people needed to keep the grid up (probably in the short term only), the water treatment plants running (also short term, due to insufficient supplies of necessary chemicals), and the sewage plants operating (same notion as the aforementioned) - if these people choose to work at all.  I suspect some will be forced to work, forced into involuntary quarantine away from their families.  I think we'll be very fortunate indeed to avoid a meltdown of nuclear facilities, and I expect if they function it will be because those who can make them work will be more or less on-site prisoners, some of their own choosing, but some quite involuntarily.

Satellite care facilities?  Another no-go.

Each of us has their own individual ideas of what life would be like in a pandemic.  I suspect your ideas and mine are about as far apart as they can get.  I think that could be easily seen by your initial insistence on ventilator support and recent mention of CPR during pandemic, while I perceive that both would be out of the question.

You worry about things that I don't think will even fit into the picture . . . a reflection of your optimism versus my notion of realism which I'm sure some would call "pessimism".  

Government won't come to work - government will be so securely isolated in their bunkers that they may work, but there would be no coming and going . . .  


[ Parent ]
Seeing where the rubber meets the road.
Clawdia,

 Some of the suggestions are made to make people think. Thigs we take for granted that will not happen.

 We are so use to parties, retirements, award banquets, catered lunches etc that many will not even make plans for cancelling them.

 During the pandemic babies will be born. Bridal and baby showers will not occure during or IMO between waves of a pandemic.

 As for water - chemicals, power and waste removal. Raw water is made ready by removing suspended ogranics with alum. Many places use alum as a flock to precipitate out dissolved particles. This stuff has to be hauled away daily by the truckload.

 I hope blood drives happen but my biggist fear is not doner infection. My biggist fear ist not having a tested and certified H5N1 test for blood. That once collected and screeded a pint will be broken down into three or five products. Each product might infect another.

 Also blood has a max shelf life. Our local banks run out before that shelf life though the weeks following 9/11 saw a huge outpouring of donations. It was one time they where well stocked.

 As per a past diary a lack of security and trained operators will at the Nuclear facilities will probably shut them down. IMO once a large segment or powerline is overloaded it will trip off-line. The back EMF will cascade and cause others to trip off line. The sudden drop in load may scram the reactor. Then the fear starts for you need power to run the pumps and controls before the rods can be removed. Just ask the Russians about Chernobly (Sp?).

 BTW - I am glad we see this from different angles.

 Lastly - what about Tv and Radio?

KObie



[ Parent ]
"what about Tv and Radio?"
Eyes bugging out--  We're counting on them for information, and many schools want to teach via tv.   But are they prepared?   Do they want to hear about pandemic, they meaning either the bosses or the workers?  

I haven't found an FCC prep plan but this is interesting:  DHS bloggers and DHS digital library.  I accessed a report here, so it doesn't require logging in.  
https://www.hsdl.org/hslog/?q=...

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
Brodcast news
Jane,

 During Katrina and 9/11 regular programming gave way to 24/7 news broadcasts.

 Not only did people watch but what sticks in my mind is that they did not run any commercials and the companies that paid for the air time never complained. Running commercials was a non issue that no one seemed to vote on but never disagreed with.

 Hence, during a pandemic TV and raido will be a great way to inform the public.

 My fear is TV will not work. Cable will be down and few people have gotten HD converters.

 Second - you are right - using TV for education is almost a non issue. Normal school work should take second seat to "making bread from flour", "how to clean water", "How to avoid infection", "How to do paillitive care", "How to prepd a dead body", "Actions for post pandemic re-activation"

 Jane you ask if they want to hear about a pandemic. I'm not sure. Those here do but....the average person no. I'm finding even those who's job includes disaster prep do not.

 What will TV and Radio do? What role will they play?

 Will TPTB think that telling people what is going on is too much for them to handle??

Kobie


[ Parent ]
social distancing
I agree with Clawdia, no way.

Knowing that I would have to be about 6-15 feet away from someone (i think that's the distance - please tell me if I have it wrong) kind of makes socializing a bit awkward. I suppose a basketball court may be a good place to hold a party for about 5 people (not to make light of this, but)

Even what I bring in to my house will have to undergo an "isolation" period due to how long the virus lives on surfaces.

Who cares what the house looks like...right?  

Pray for all people and rulers
1Timothy 2:1-4

(Extending the culture of life.)

http://preparedcitizens.wordpr...


[ Parent ]
No "Better Homes and Gardens" during a pandemic
StanindingFirm,

  I like your "isolation" idea.

  My house will look like a tornado hit it.

  Keeping it clean will be hard. Ohh lots of wash. I hope that just running cloths through a hot dryer will kill H5N1 - but need to check on that.

  This assumes the power is on.

Kobie
Nobody said life would be easy, they just promised it would be worth it.  


[ Parent ]
Myth - health - personal - "I will get my prescription filled"

 This could be a myth for three reasons:

 1) There will be drugs to dispense. No birth control pills, no anti depressents, no heart meds nor ADHD.

 2) There will not be any pharmacists. They will either all be at home SIP or pressed into pandemic service to save lives.

 3) Pharmacy will not open. No power for money. No manager for keys. Fear of being robbed because police are overwhelmed.

 Any thoughts?

Kobie


Myth - health - personal - "I will get my prescription filled"
Oops! forgot two.

 4) I will be able to get a prescription (a.k.a 'script') either renewed or issued.  The chances of finding a good doctor may also be slim to none - and slim left town ;-)

 5) No money, no credit, no insurance. Many business that would close down during a pandemic pay min. wage. Some pay below min wage as waiters, bar tenders, waitress, etc work for Tips. These folks work "pay check to pay check"

 Credit card companies may shut down or loose communication with business. Visa has been pushing using their card over cash - so who carries cash anymore?

 Insurance companies, faced with huge payouts, may fold completly.

 There is no plan for government to step in and pay.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Myth?: I know how to avoid infection.
I just have to keep 6 to 10 feet away from people.  

But, what do you touch?  What objects do you touch after others have touched them?  What parts of your body do you touch without washing your hands first?  

Elevator buttons, door knobs, shopping-cart handles, telephones, pens at cashier's stations, stair railings, money, mail, goods for sale, chair armrests, magazines in the waiting room, toilet-flushing handles, faucet knobs, soap dispensers, towel dispensers, hand-dryer knobs, etc.

Virus will die after some amount of time has passed, depending on temperature and humidity, but how do you know when the last person has touched anything?

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


you don't know,
which is why my 'going out during a pandemic plan' includes a separate set of clothes, use of gloves, mask and a face shield, and a disinfection station outside the house.  ALL of the contents of my 'public' clothes stay outside after being disinfected.

KEEP THE GRID UP!
Prudent People Prepare Properly

"better to have it and not need it than need it and not have it!"


[ Parent ]
You can't know . . .
And it's what you don't/can't know that stands the best chance of killing you.

I totally agree with keeping clothes, etc., outside even after disinfection, if they've been worn/used anywhere there even might be the virus . . .

I don't believe there will be any such thing as being "too careful".   Every precaution possible could only be to our benefit.


[ Parent ]
A Diary of precations?
Clawdia,

 Do you have a list of do's and don'ts?

 I just read in Sep 25th news about a paint for walls that kills H5N1 in 30min. Yea sounds like marketing.

 Air purifiers?
 Bleach for cleaner?
 Removal of rugs and carpets?
 Staging area to disenfect?

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Two stars
Jane,

 Good point. Gloves are not magical disinfectants. They must be changed when going from a dirty area to a cleaner one or even switching between some areas to prevent cross contamination.

 Just thinking about using the rest room and when to remove gloves is much harder than I thought. Each trip would require a glove set change. So how many sets is that a day???

 Also - many people think they know how to remove gloves. The best test I know of is to have someone put gloves on and then put catchup on both gloves. The test is to remove the gloves without getting any of the catchup on themselves.

 See it is always the simple things that get overlooked.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Myth - Personal - skill - "I can cook"
 Ok, that sounds funny but past the joke is the reality that few have cooked without a microwave, stove and oven.

 I believe there are even fewer who have cooked all three meals outdoors.

 Of that set, IMO, even fewer can cook all three (four or five if you have teen age boys) meals using only what they have in the house.

 Now take the freezer and refridgerator out of the equation and bingo! It is Galveston TX, Katrina, or the grid is down.

 Untill people practice a week on the grill they will not know their skill level nor their tasts.

 Note: practice putting out camp fires before staring this activity. The first thing to get when starting a fire is a bucket of water to put it out.

Kobie


Myth - business - "the computers will not suffer"
 Its assumed the internet is the weak link, the only weak link. That somehow the computers will work - they just may not be able to talk to each other.

 Possiblly not.

 The "lights out operation" business model has reduced the IT staff to a min. Even large shops are right-sized to one person for every job or two.

 Now we have rolling blackouts - who is there to shut teh system down and bring it back up. What if the blackout happens in the middle of the night?

 Password resets - fine untill the folks that can reset the passwords are not there.

 DR - disaster recovery. Its a pandemic and the whole shop is suppost to move to the disaster recovery site becuase of an upcomming tornado, hurricane, flood, fire, etc. Yea like there will be a hotel open, food or resteraunt.

 I'ver been reluctant to say anything because of Y2K. Y2K was a problem many fixed but it still has that "cried wolf" feel.  

 Do think through who will take care of the AS-400, servers, HP-UX, and other systems. Particualy if the power goes out each night at 3 am.

 Tech support, consultants or spare parts may be as rare as hen's teeth.

Kobie


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