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This is an international website intended to remain accessible to as many people as possible. The opinions expressed here are those of the individual posters who remain solely responsible for the content of their messages.
The use of good judgement during the discussion of controversial issues would be greatly appreciated.

Community Open Thread May 5 to 27, 2009.

by: Bronco Bill

Tue May 05, 2009 at 10:24:32 AM EDT


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Bronco Bill :: Community Open Thread May 5 to 27, 2009.
The prior Community Open Thread is here.
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deliberate exposure?
Not that I am contemplating this, but I've read that people have been discussing exposing themselves to this 'mild' form of h1n1. (though how they would go about it, I'm not sure, given that officials are keeping a close eye on the number of cases and isolating the sick) Anyway... I guess they think by contracting h1n1 now, that they will develop enough anti-bodies to combat a more virulent form come the winter months - assuming the virus has mutated into something deadly in a 'second wave.' Are they misguided in their thinking? Reckless? This is the first I've heard of it. Your thoughts?

Not my cup of tea....
I've had the flu twice and if what I had was remotely considered "mild" than you can have it. No way in hades will I ever deliberately expose myself and my family. That's just my personal choice, and I'm sticking to it.


United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com


[ Parent ]
I posted this yesterday
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

It's being recommended that people NOT expose themselves to this virus

If a survivor of a virus maintains immunity for years, does this mean people should try to contract a mild case of a virus so that they will naturally develop antibodies? This used to be the logic with chicken pox, a far more serious illness for adults than children. Before there was a vaccine, people thought children ought to catch the disease to avoid complications later in life, he said.

But Crowe does not advise that anyone purposely contract swine flu to develop immunity, even in the United States, where most cases appear mild.

"We don't know yet how severe this virus is going to be," he said.



[ Parent ]
We'll take care of that by not closing the schools
We're opening up the fire break and hoping for a small slow burn.  Maybe that will help if we get another larger wildfire next fall.

Let's just hope the viral equivalent of the Santa Anna winds don't come up.

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
happening today, in half an hour
cross posted from news diary

HHS Listening Session: Pediatric Response Efforts to the 2009 H1N1 Influenza

Tuesday, May 5, 2009
3:00-4:00 pm EDT

To accommodate the outpouring of interest and support from the pediatric community to the 2009 H1N1 Influenza response effort, HHS will hold a listening session on Tuesday, May 5th to share information and hear from stakeholders.

This call will be open to all interested members of the public and is designed to provide a coordinated forum for HHS Leadership to update on the 2009 H1N1 influenza response activities to-date, including outreach efforts regarding children, medical countermeasures for pediatric populations, and other public-health concerns.

HHS Leadership are also looking forward to hearing from members of the pediatric community who may have individual comments, questions, or other information to share regarding the 2009 H1N1 Influenza.

While time at this session will not allow for a direct question-and-answer portion, HHS will be keeping an open and dynamic channel of communications open during the response effort.

For information and reference materials in advance of this Listening Session, please visit: www.pandemicflu.gov for links across the U.S. Government.

Dial-In Information:
1-877-952-7589
Passcode: 693-9547

 



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


change in call info
The HHS Listening call is occurring now.

They have just changed the call in number and passcode.

Please forward around.

Call in number: 1-877-700-1237
Passcode: 4066488
 



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Pollyanna or Chicken Little: When Dealing With an Unknowable Future, Who Do You Want to Be?
In the event you are faced with a potential threat, but in spite of every effort it proves impossible to know in advance how bad it's going to be until it is too late to do anything about it, would you rather be

1) Pollyanna who, based on her unshakable belief that either (a) nothing bad will happen or (b) someone will take care of her if something bad does happen, does nothing to prepare or protect her family and is content to rely on the kindness of strangers or

2) Chicken Little who, having learned from that unfortunate "sky" incident and decided that it makes as little sense to escape into panic induced denial this time as it did to run around all paniced and hysterical last time, goes ahead and first educates herself on the potential impact a pandemic could have and then prepares for a reasonable variation of the worst, while hoping for the best?

If you wake up the next day and find yourself in the 'best of all possible worlds', then certainly you would have saved yourself some time and effort if you chose Pollyanna as your roll model.

If, on the other hand, the next day brings something that is a bit more challenging (as recent days in this world seem to have taken up an annoying habit of doing), then having completed your general hazards preparations with a bit of extra thrown in for a pandemic, you might look back and be glad you didn't let that whole "sky falling" thing embarass you into a cynical denial or panic-induced lethargy both of which would have left you in a condition of airheaded unpreparedness.

We just maybe may have dodged a bullet.

But before we begin a rousing chorus of "nahnah you missed me" we should keep a few basic truths in mind:

1.  We did not really dodge the bullet, the bullet was just a little bit off target.

2.  This bullet is still in flight.

3.  Unfortunately, that was not the only bullet in that particular gun.

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


I pick Chicken Little
And in this case, the sky really could be falling and we just don't know it yet.

I'm getting a bit weary of the Pollyannas who seem to be running this show, too.

Not just was this not the only bullet in the gun, it's not even the only freakin' gun in sight . . .  


[ Parent ]
I prefer pessimistic optimism or optimistic pessimism. n/t


[ Parent ]
Optimists. Pessimists. Realists.
Optimists say the glass is half full.
Pessimists say the glass is half empty.
Realists say the glass is twice as big as it needs to be.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
Advertising on this site
Hey Mods,  Can you just remove the ads and the discussions about them?  There is even an entire thread that is really an ad.  You have been very patient about this, and given plenty of warnings.  It is distracting from the real purpose of this forum.  People are dying and many more people are scared.  Trying to profit from this situation is about as low as you can get.

I agree
Please remove the diary.

[ Parent ]
Recall on Kidde fire extinguishers
Kidde Recalls to Replace Fire Extinguishers Due to Failure to Operate
WASHINGTON, D.C. - The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission, in cooperation with the firm named below, today announced a voluntary recall of the following consumer product. Consumers should stop using recalled products immediately unless otherwise instructed.
Name of product: Kidde XL Fire Extinguishers

Units: About 167,000

Distributor: Walter Kidde Portable Equipment Inc., of Mebane, N.C.

Hazard: The pressurized cylinders in the recalled fire extinguishers could lose pressure and fail to operate. In the event of a fire, this failure could put a consumer and property at risk....

...Description: This recall involves the Kidde XL Fire Extinguishers with model numbers FX340SC, FX340H, FX340GW, XL5MR, FX210R, FX340SC-2, FX210W, XL2.5TCZ-4, E-340-3 and with manufacture dates between October 2007 and April 2008. "Kidde" and the model number can be found on the label on the front of the extinguisher. The manufacture year is on the bottom of the extinguisher. If your extinguisher is one of the listed model numbers and is marked with the year 07 or 08, contact Kidde to determine if you have a recalled extinguisher.

Sold at: Department, home, and hardware stores nationwide from October 2007 through April 2008 for about $35...

http://www.cpsc.gov/cpscpub/pr...

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


US map of cases has larger nos. in front-page version.
Clicking to enlarge it gives old numbers.  IL has 421 on the front page, but 204 in the large version.

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

TV Swine Flu Special
Last Night the National Geographic Channel had a 1 hour special on AH1N1 (Swine Flu).  The first 1/2 hour was a history lesson on flu and how AH1N1 came about.  Very good for the first time viewer.  

The second half hour dealt with what may happen to Swine Flu between now and next spring.  It was interesting enough, for me to record it.  Several experts (Most of them); agreed that when AH1N1 comes back in its 2nd wave, and has a chance to mutate with the various flu virus in Asia, we are in for major problems.

They even touched on supply and demand problems with stores, energy, water, etc.  It was an eye opener for most of my family members.  NOW; they want to know what, have I been doing over the last 5/6 years.  They want to increase everything I have done for SIP by 400 percent.

  No warning - no way to fight - no way to win!  
We need help in our local communities to survive. Remember that quote:    "...No man is an island..."


yes it was a good progamme
I hope it's available online somewhere.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
It may show up
on hulu.com . They "air" a lot of TV shows now...

[ Parent ]
Try this
http://video.nationalgeographi...

It stops loading at 91% for me.  Maybe it will work for you.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.


[ Parent ]
It loaded but the sound was so herky-jerky I felt seasick.
I don't think I can watch it.  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
I saw it and made DH watch
I thought it was good not only in showing how the virus begins and spreads, but in how it can possibly become a different animal by fall and what would ensue if it did.  I have finally made my 71 yr. old MIL a believer but DH isn't budging. He felt it was over hyped and used scare tactics. I realized then and there that there will be people close to me that I will never ever convince. Each day I learn more and more from this forum, news sources, WHO and CDC. I try to digest the information and form a rational and unbiased opinion. Each day, I feel a tiny bit of frustration and panic when I cannot find a physician to prescribe an anti-viral or anti-biotic to put in our medical kits, when I realize I don't live on enough land for sustainable living or leave near potable water. Each day I'm more and more convinced that I'm doing the right thing when I purchase extra food, medical supplies, water, seeds, etc. I feel so glad to have a prep forum to come to where others are doing the same thing (probably to a much larger degree). It makes me feel not so crazy when everyone around me walks around like the common cold is what is "going around".

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner


[ Parent ]
DH and adult DS watched it with me
We were at a DS's home in another city for a week.  He doesn't "get it" but now at least asked some questions about food preps after watching the show.  I thought that DH was fully on board because he's been gung ho about food and supply prepping for the past 4 years due to concern over H5N1.  Now I see that he only will "get it" if the pandemic emerges as suddenly lethal in large numbers like we've feared for H5N1.  The swine flu apparently doesn't count.  Only high mortality flu will count.

DH knows that my physician believes I'm currently in a high risk group for any type flu due to medical problems.  I catch upper respiratory viruses easily.  Yet he and DSs continue to shop and go to large social gatherings without any real attention to hand washing to the degree that would be necessary to avoid catching a swine flu virus and bringing it home.  It just isn't something they're concerned about.  Swine flu is apparently too mild an illness for them to bother with strict personal infection control, which is a whole lot of trouble to do carefully.

As it stands now, I can see that none of my family will avoid their normal shopping/restaurant meals/social functions unless the media begins to report high pandemic hospitalization numbers and death counts in our country, and by then then DH or DSs may have already brought the virus home.  Now I just keep my fingers crossed that through sheer good luck I can avoid getting this current swine flu.  Heaven help all of us if a highly lethal, highly contagious virus emerges.


[ Parent ]
NBSB to discuss H1N1
National Biodefense Science Board (NBSB)
Public Teleconference
May 22, 2009
2-4 p.m. EDT

The purpose of this teleconference is to discuss issues regarding the ongoing response to the 2009 H1N1 influenza.  There will be time for members of the public to present their comments to the Board on this subject matter.  

The conference will be conducted by phone. The conference call-in number is (866) 395-4129 and the passcode is ASPR.  Participants should call in 15 minutes prior to the call and will be asked to provide their name, title, and organization.

Please forward questions to nbsb@hhs.gov.

no link available



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


For several months, now
I have been unable to modify my profile. I assume other registered users (all others) are having a similar problem?

(I'm considering just going ahead and starting a diary just for user/contributor profiles as a remedy.)


I just updated
my age on my profile.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

[ Parent ]
Are you selecting the profile tab? n/t


To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

[ Parent ]
The only change I've tried to make
for the past several months is to insert a space between the comma and "retired." (If I could get that to work, there is at least one other change I would make.) I click on "Profile," insert the space in the HTML, and then click on "save." Red print then appears that says "Changes saved." But when I check (both by going to "Diaries" and then going back to "Profile"), nothing has changed.
Am I the only one who's been having a problem?

[ Parent ]
Try
deleting from the close parenthesis on, then save it. Then type it back with the space.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

[ Parent ]
Much thanks
for your patience, Oremus. I finally got it to work. Deleted everything and did it completely over.
I think the main problem is that on a scale of one to ten, my level of proficiency at HTML is about 0.5 (I don't even have a reasonably accurate estimate of how much I don't know).

[ Parent ]
Limiting Contacts
I was just randomly thinking about how different society now from in 1918.  Travel, population, etc.  Then I came to the issue of how soon to close schools, etc.  Then I started thinking about how often, in today's world, we contact people we never see.  

On my list:

1.  The ATM.  You are in "touch" with possibly hundreds of people, without ever seeing even one of them.  

2.  "Start" button on the copy machine.  If you have to go to work, even if you try to kinda hole up in your cubicle, can you go even just one day without touching it?

3.  Automated check-out line at a store.  Same as #1.  You can protect your face w/a mask, but should you wear gloves?  Go to the human check-out line?

4.  Money.  Depending on how fast it moves, when you take the dollar bill in change from the cashier, you're touching the 12-year-old who got her allowance today from her mom, who got it from dad as he left for work, who got it from the ATM earlier (ACH! back to #1 again!).

In a pandemic, limiting your exposure to people you can see is one thing.  I think everyone's becoming aware of that.  It's just astounding to me how many others, though, we touch in today's world, without seeing a one of them.

This is for the people who chuckle at the "wash your hands well and often" advice.  Think about it--you might be washing away hundreds of people when you wash those hands!  


Some solutions -
At least to one problem - wear a hospital type glove when using the ATM machine, and always carry hand sanitizer - I even carry sanitizer cloths and they don't seem to damage debit/credit cards to wipe them down with the cloths.

For the others - don't work in an office with a copy machine (I'm successful at that one).

Go thru the human line - and use hand sanitizer after you touch the bags that are in your cart - that means use it if you put them in your cart, use again after you put them in your car, use again after you put them in the house . . . and then wash thoroughly with soap and water after putting things away.  I've developed the habit of putting stuff newly bought in places where I won't have to touch them for a few days, unless I run out of something like milk and have to run home and open the carton.  (Sometimes you're just out of luck and limiting exposure becomes an exercise in futility).  I've found that the Purell with aloe helps the way my hands feel if I have to use the stuff too often.)

Don't use cash - I've found a debit card can take care of almost everything that requires money - of course, then you're back to the maybe wear a glove, and for sure use some more hand sanitizer.

Wish I'd bought stock in hand sanitizer companies a few years back . . .

I've discovered you can limit exposure to things other people touch, but you can't eliminate it.  Did notice last week when DH went to see a cardiologist - they had the usual sign-in clipboard at the window - and right beside it was a large jar of hand sanitizer with a sign asking that you use it.  It didn't say whether to use it before or after signing in, so I figured both would cover it.  For years, I've carried my own pen to sign their logs anyway - not many places any more likely to be germy than hospitals or doctor's offices.  I don't pick up magazines in offices either - I do without reading, or carry something of my own to read.  


[ Parent ]
Some interesting articles
from a magazine called The Economist. I noticed the cover story whilst shopping this past week, and thought I'd look them up and post anything that was relevant...

Despite appearing less severe, swine flu could still pose a grave danger to the world  May 4, 2009

How firms' disaster plans may fail in a pandemic  May 5, 2009

Vaccine makers are ill-prepared for an influenza pandemic  May 7, 2009


we will hit our 1 millionth visitor
over the weekend.

And our 6 millionth page view.


And so far to go!
(considering the U.S. population alone is about 300 million)

[ Parent ]
well...
add in the 2 million from FW proper and nearly 7 million page views. Not bad.

[ Parent ]
forum stats

http://www.quantcast.com/newfl...

millionth's post to flu-forums in ~July 2008, I estimate

posts 1.July 2008-04.May 2009

PFI:66269
FT:43221
FW:21721
AFT:13481
P4P:11430

(CE changed counting in the subforums,TBM only started later)

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies


[ Parent ]
newshounds

were there still these "newshounds" who did track Indonesian cases
in Indo-newspapers ?
Do we have info on early Mexican cases ?
It may show, where the virus emerged, whether it came from
swine in La Gloria, where it presumably survived ~2 months in
the environment before infecting some of the people.

I'm particularly intereted in the female,50Y  sampled 07.April,
sequence A/Mexico/4115. Where was she from, how did she get it ?

That could be the original virus from which all other Mexflu
strains descended ~2 months before the 50F got it from the
environment (pork?,pigwaste?,flies?...)

ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies


The Indonesian newshounds are alive and well.
Our team tracks cases 24/7, including holidays, and we now have a separate diary just for poultry cases. Right now swine flu is a big concern in Indonesia, and the hospitals are preparing for cases, much as they have prepared for H5N1.

"I am opposed to any form of tyranny over the mind of man."  Thomas Jefferson

[ Parent ]
The Indo news sites, at least some
of mine, are reporting on swine flu now. Then there are some sites that just don't report anymore BF news, as most of mine seem to have gone that way.  

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com


[ Parent ]
I just wrote President Obama
on the Whitehouse website. It was very convenient. I worked on his campaign thought I'd tell him what I thought about all this.

I told him I always admired how he didn't talk down to people or think he needed to dumb down himself. I wrote about my concerns about this situation and asked him to be more honest with the public about future possibilites and what could be done individually to prepare for those possibilities...just as we prepare for other possibilities that may be even less likely (renters insurance, say, in case of fire). That even the poor can prep some and not to underestimate them/(us). I asked why schools were not being closed, why we hear certain memes over and over (just like seasonal influenza, he had preexisting medical conditions (after Each death), why Tamiflu is being discouraged/not available, why they are no longer testing everyone...

actually, I just said those things, not asked. What I asked was, Why does it seem that you want this to spread unchecked here in the US as we see everywhere else people are taking precautions? And if this is because you think it is too late, why are you not telling people to personally prepare for possibilities?

I said that we can hear the truth more than he seems to think.

Well, it made me feel better anyway!  


Let us know
if you get a response beyond the automated form letter.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

[ Parent ]
I will.
I have two dear friends who are pregnant and several others with the "preexisting medical complications". I feel that they have only received the 'mild, like seasonal flu" message and have dismissed any possibility of threat to their health. I feel they went a bit too far to emphasize the mildness of this without warning the vulnerable.

It was cathartic anyway to write that letter.


[ Parent ]
"Mobile penicillin lab" from 1943 was on exhibit (as an architectural model)
at the Chicago Art Institute.  The credits in the display name Standard Fabrication, Inc. and Westinghouse Electric as well as The Office of Strategic Services.  It looked like 2 trailers (18-wheeler truck size).  I'm not sure if it was ever built, but it was thrilling to see.  

There were 9 steps to the process, all done within the lab: (1)culture medium, (2)sterilization, (3)inoculation, (4)growth, (5)extraction, (6)vacuum distillation, (7)dessication, (8) lypholization, (9) packaging.  (Lypholization is freeze-drying; I had to look it up.)

Scroll down here for a photo (says it was designed by Bertrand Goldberg):
http://www.dailyicon.net/categ...

Is this a useful idea for some other meds that are now made overseas?

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


UK - digital ear thermometers at Lidl
http://www.lidl.co.uk/uk/home....

Measures ear, forehead temperatures. No need to stick under the tongue (ie the patient doesn't need to be awake) or in err, other places ;-)

£9.99 next Monday, but get there early 'cause their special offers don't last long.


UK freeze dried vegetarian meals
Recently found this website:

www. emergencyfoodstorage.co.uk

and subsequently had a very interesting phone chat to someone from the company.
I specifically asked about vegetarian meal options and was told that large tins (the size of baby milk tins) would be available 'very soon' at around £40 per tin and with a shelf life of at least 10 years. Also available will be freeze dried vegetables, rice, butter, etc, etc.

This is the range that will be available: www.trekneat.com

David


I'm surprised....
simply because I have nothing to compare it too, that H1N1 has spread outward from NYC. There isn't one single suspect case in the counties where I live, or anywhere in upstate new york that I'm aware of. If it's spreading that bad, I thought for sure we'd see it start to spread out from the big apple. Any thoughts on this?  

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com


transmission and seeding
transmission of disease is related to the number of close personal contacts per person in the community.  What you are talking about is geographical expansion of the outbreak or seeding, which depends on infected persons traveling out of NYC.  

Obviously these persons exist but since each person taking the disease to a new community is then patient zero of a new outbreak, the new 'satellite' outbreaks take a longer time to come onto our radar (the first, flat, part of an exponential curve) .  In comparison, in NYC cos of the no of existing cases (in the thousands) in a densely populated area, you are seeing the rising steeper portion of the exponential curve



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Thanks Susan. Helpful info. n/t


United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com


[ Parent ]
it is interesting
and as we have talkied about before, Queens seems different than the other boroughs. It is possible even that there is more preceived disease than disease.

We are only an hour outside of NYC. Many of our residents work in the city. We have some illness, but nothing like what's reported in the city. There have been, iirc, a couple of westchester Co, NY cases.

we need more data and more test results to really know.


[ Parent ]
I think density of the community makes a big difference n/t




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
density on a school field trip
I'm thinking about kids who leave on a school field trip for 10 days traveling by plan and bus.

One child is infected at the start of the trip, spreads the virus to 8 others the first few days on the trip (they are all travleing by bus) and those 8 infect the rest of the group by the end of the trip.

The entire group could be infected in 1 week.   AR would be 100%, just bacause they are all traveling together, all eating together, all living together in the hotel rooms.

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.


[ Parent ]
the three week gap we saw in queens still bothers me
taking nothing away from your point. But what do we really have in Queens?

Fears of H1N1 flu are filling emergency rooms and emptying schools across the city, despite there being no indication that the city's H1N1 outbreak is getting more severe.

Of the 26 schools that are now closed due to high rates of student absences, only I.S. 238 in Hollis, Queens has currently diagnosed cases of H1N1, otherwise known as swine flu.

Currently there are more than 200 confirmed cases of H1N1 in the city, but city health officials say most of the confirmed cases have been mild.

The large numbers of student absences are due to illness and concerned families who are keeping their children home in fear of infection.

http://www.ny1.com/content/top...

Again, parents, teachers, officials (mayor) and PH can close a school, but it's unclear what the driver is in Queens.


[ Parent ]
I don't get it
What is the significane of "the three week gap" in Queens?

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.

[ Parent ]
Japan's cases are developing over one week
we've made a lot of assumptions that the 3-3.5 week gap is somehow 'normal' for flu seeded in the community, that it's the early part of exponential curve, etc., it's exactly what we should expect, but I don't know if it is.

I remain surprised that there was such a long time without symptoms showing up in ERs and clinics. I really don't think we have the full picture of what's happening (illness vs worry vs different illness) right now, and how much more illness there is in NYC this week compared to last week.


[ Parent ]
here's my hypothesis
Even though the initial outbreak in St Francis school was big, because they closed the school and everyone stayed home, in essence instead of a big cluster emanating from the school, what you have is a dispersal of cases into each much smaller local neighborhood.  

Also, because of the big scare, kids from that school and maybe even their families would have come under great pressure by friends, co-workers and neighbors to stay away.  So, many of these kids may not have infected many more people beyond their immediate families.

For the rest of the kids who did infect others out in the community, and for the family members who went on to infect others, it could be that these all acted as patient zero for secondary 'satellite' outbreaks.  So instead of thinking St Francis as the middle of the outbreak curve, it could be that school closure resulted in many index cases starting fresh clusters, and we are now seeing the rise of that curve from those secondary clusters.

But your observation is astute.  The 2-3 week gap IS interesting from the epidemiological POV.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
in which case we can only conclude that even late school closure is effective
for the purpose of putting a halt to that cluster growing.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
School closure
I have a hard time coming up with a scenario when, given the existence of a novel viral infection circulating in a community, school closure would fail to be effective.

Even if all you're doing is buying time, I think it's a good thing to buy with your resources.


[ Parent ]
Time is critical
[Excerpt from page 1]
http://www.sandia.gov/nisac/do...

Preparedness is the key to mitigating the health, social, and economic impacts of a pandemic influenza. Public health strategies that significantly reduce the spread of the disease have the broadest impact on mitigating potential consequences. Among the many potential intervention strategies, strain-specific vaccination is considered the single best intervention action because it prevents the spread of a potential pandemic-inducing virus. Producing sufficient supplies of such a vaccine, however, can take 4 to 6 months. This development time necessitates the use of other interventions, including antiviral treatments and student dismissal, to delay the onset of the pandemic until a strain-specific vaccine is available. Decisions concerning the type, timing, and duration of intervention strategies are critical because the intervention chosen can dramatically affect the economic and infrastructure consequences of a pandemic.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.


[ Parent ]
more on school closure
Any surface left alone for 24 hours is unlikely to have influenza, said Dr. Paul Biddinger, associate director of the Center for Public Health Preparedness at the Harvard School of Public Health...

Some cities have reacted to outbreaks by closing schools. But even that step is questionable, experts said.

"As a disease containment measure, it is not likely to be effective," said Biddinger.

In most cases, he said, shutting a school once children have gotten ill means authorities have acted too late to halt the spread.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention initially advised school systems to close if outbreaks occurred, then reversed itself, saying the apparent mildness of the virus meant most schools and day care centers should stay open, even if they had confirmed cases of swine flu.

http://dailyme.com/story/20090...


[ Parent ]
ER visits not the same as cases
I think visits to the doctor or ER can't be seen as equivalent to number of cases.

In a lot of cases, it seems, the symptoms of this flu really aren't that severe, and under ordinary circumstances would not lead most parents to take a child to the ER or a pediatrician.

I know in ordinary times, if my child had a low grade fever of 100 or 101, a sore throat and a headache, I'd give her some Motrin, pop in a DVD, give her some chicken soup.  ONly 3 days into it, would I call her doctor if she hadn't improved.   A lot of parents would be the same.  (Certainly not all -- I have friends who call the doc for every fever.)

If it is true that the majority of cases are about like that -- then in the absense of a lot of news reports about "SWINE FLU IN YOUR NEIGHBORHOOD" and "EARLY TREATMENT NECESSARY" -- there'd be no reason for an noticeable increase in ER visits.  Not until numbers got higher and the percentage of severe cases rose to a higher level -- high enough so the ERs and pediatricians could distinguish the visits form teh regular background noise of flu visits.

I think the rise in ER vists, right now, in Queens, is being driven by the increased reporting and school closures.  But (this is just my guess) I bet that the increase in actual cases was there all along -- people were just mostly treating at home, and now are concerend that their child could need treatment.

GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.


[ Parent ]
again, you could well be right
But (this is just my guess) I bet that the increase in actual cases was there all along -- people were just mostly treating at home, and now are concerned that their child could need treatment.

That is what I am asking. Parents deciding to act differently due to publicity is different than SusanC's idea that the many small cases went out and seeded Queens, and now we have more cases.

Do we have more seasonal flu than usual or are we doing more testing in May than usual? More testing makes it look like we have a seasonal flu outbreak. And do we really have more actual cases or is the same baseline of cases now going in to the ER?

Increased publicity would certainly explain the 3 week gap in cases. So would seeding Queens with many patient zeroes. The former does not require many new cases, the latter does.


[ Parent ]
What would you expect to happen with the elderly and babies?
With seasonal flu, these populations can become seriously ill.  They or their caretakers wouldn't be likely to tough it out without seeing a doctor in the winter, but would they in spring?  I doubt it, if there were serious symptoms.  So my question is, how many babies and elderly are doctors seeing now?  

I'm trying to make a logical conclusion about seeing cases just because we're looking, but .... aren't there lots of teens being diagnosed?  If not diagnosed, then at least absent from school.  Teachers are sick, too.  How many parents are keeping their children home as a precaution?  Probably not many, I'd guess.

I've gotten lost with this puzzle, but it does seem to me that there are more real cases, perhaps partly because I've heard second-hand (not third-hand) stories about sick kids.

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
i think there are cases
but not in the elderly. Most hospitalizations are under 50 to 55. I think there are more cases (maybe a lot more) than just the "test positive", but I cannot separate worried well, worried "URI with fever-not flu", and worried flu, and I can't tell of the "not going to school" group which is which is which.  

I think it's possible in NYC that the media coverage has made more people seek medical care than normally would have with the same symptoms, but even so, some are undoubtedly ill with flu. I am reluctant to assume it's all flu without more data.

And I worry that the rational approach to school closing is meeting 'close the schools and clean them' pressure, which is not helpful to anyone.


[ Parent ]
can't agree more!!
And I worry that the rational approach to school closing is meeting 'close the schools and clean them' pressure, which is not helpful to anyone.

This is a really important teachable moment, and I'm worried that with regards to reasons for school closure, the public are getting the wrong message!



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
and here's where the message comes back to bite them
http://www.cdc.gov/media/trans...

question from NBC

Robert Bazell, NBC: there's no question if you put a bunch of people, and some of them have influenza, into a confined space like a schoolroom, they're more likely to give it to each other.  The CDC had said earlier on that when you made the decision not to recommend school closures, that school closures does not affect the community transmission. Is there any change in that perspective based on the more knowledge you've gained over time?

Here's the awkward answer

Daniel Jernigan:  I think the fact that you comment that the problem in the schools did not have any issue in the community.  I don't think that's exactly the case.  What we were saying is that transmission was occurring in the community and, therefore, the effectiveness of closing schools might not be as great.  So, I think it's not so much that we didn't think it would have an effect on the community. It's just that we were seeing transmission already occurring in the community and, therefore, one benefit for doing school closures was not met there.

Yes, there is some fine, and minute, distinction there....



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Pandemic Response Theatre
It seems like sanitizing school buildings, then sending kids back in who are almost certain to be shedding the virus is pandemic response theatre, not science-based community mitigation.

It's about public perception, but assumes a public that is interested more in appearances than reality, more interested in feeling safe than being safe.

That could really come back to bite these officials if (when) it is shown to be a poor substitute for true mitigation measures.

Reasonable people can debate whether school closing is or is not currently justified given all the various considerations, but an honest discussion of what does work and why various approaches are or are not being used, definitely falls into the category where the juice is worth the squeeze.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
probably also because
decisions made by a relatively small no of people early on in the local outbreak makes a big difference to the outcome.

So for the first school, St Francis, people were not aware of the outbreak till >200 kids were already infected.  By the time the first 40 odd cases were confirmed, the no of infections would have already gone through another couple of generations, from the day when those 200 were counted.  So the community was not aware and nobody took any personal actions till there were probably several hundred cases.  After that, actions were ineffective cos the threshold for action had been exceeded.

Now imagine other communities that became aware of the first cluster in Queens, from the news.  Whether of not cases are confirmed, a small no of people in many communities would have taken more precautions, eg washing hands, using hand sanitizers after touching doorknobs and elevator buttons, avoiding going to mass gatherings.  If you now have seeding into a community, such simple actions by a small no of people may be enough to slow down (or even snuff out) transmission of the early cases.

This is the basis of the early targeted layered interventions.  Remember that the TLC model does not require high compliance to be effective.  With this age of 24/7 media and instant access to news, I wouldn't be surprised if small modifications of behavior in small numbers of people has this magnifying effect of delaying transmission, simply because these actions start at such an early stage of transmission.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
the st francis outbreak
fgor reference:

see refernce above... I am unsure of how much illness there is, vs. concern.


[ Parent ]
what do you mean?
I am unsure of how much illness there is, vs. concern.

like kids staying home cos their parents are worried of them getting sick, vs being sick?  Is that what you are talking about?  And, are you talking about St Francis, Queens, or NYC in general?  



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
exactly
like kids staying home cos their parents are worried of them getting sick, vs being sick?
I am talking about Queens and the city in general, not st francis.

[ Parent ]
also it;s not clear
that "sick" = H1N1,at least not yet.

[ Parent ]
that's only relevant for the size of local outbreak
Unless you believe none of the absent kids have H1N1, which is highly unlikely given the CDC says half of their samples from surveillance is positive for swine flu.  Also, my comment was in response to cottontop's question.  She was asking why it doesn't seem to be spreading to other communities, which is a seeding issue, not a 'size of oubreak' issue.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
i think we are making a lot of assumptions about queens
which may or may not be so, in the end, even though the treory you posted is spot on.

I think a it's possible a lot (not none) of the absent kids do not have H1N1.


[ Parent ]
this is also why
models based on homogeneous mixing does not accurately reflect actual mixing of real people.  It isn't really homogeneous.  We all have more-or-less constant daily routines that put us in contact with particular groups of people but not so much with other groups of people.  It isn't as if everyone in the US, or NY state, are put in a bottle and shaken up, which is what 'homogeneous mixing' is about.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Queens is special...
Hi - I'm a dedicated lurker with a couple thoughts about the NYC Schools discussion...

Thought one...
The schools in NYC don't let out until June 26th.  So, there's a lot of time left in the school year.

Thought two...
The population in Queens is about as diverse as it gets.  There are many micro communities in Queens of people from the same villages in Bangladesh, Serbia, Kenya, or whereever. (About half of the borough's population is foreign born.)  Queens residents have business and family connections to almost everywhere on globe. So, from a global perspective Queens is a pretty terrible place to underreact to a pandemic strain of flu.


[ Parent ]
no question
over 100 languages are spoken at Elmhurst Hospital (I rotated through there some 25 years ago.) And the food... mmmmm, the food... :-)

Good thoughts.


[ Parent ]
A question for UK Bird
As the 'UK rep' on this site, I wanted to find out your thoughts on the apparent absence of any reporting of H1N1 in the UK press & media in the last couple of weeks (especially with what's been happening in the US & Japan). I know that we're more concerned with MPs, moats and manure at the moment but it seems odd.

I'm not a believer in conspiracy theories and I find it hard to believe that our press has been gagged (particularly the tabloids), but it is striking how coverage of this dropped off a cliff.

Most people I speak to think that H1N1 has gone away.


that is not unique to the UK
I also live in the UK, but I also follow US media closely.  Until the death of the assistant principal in NYC and more closure of schools, there was a lull in reporting, and many people also assumed that H1N1 was a non-story.

The MSM has very short attention spans.  Also the UK has been very aggressive in giving tamiflu to cases AND contacts.  This is quite effective in snuffing out further transmission.  In comparison, the virus was probably spreading silently in the US for a fair amount of time before it was discovered, so seeding was probably widespread and we are now seeing the upward surge of the exponential curve.  UK is not there yet, and tamiflu is very effective in stopping it getting there.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
UK reporting
Thanks for the response SusanC.

Given how infectious this disease seems to be, it is surprising that it didn't take hold in the UK as much as it has elsewhere, even with Tamiflu etc.


[ Parent ]
the beginning part of an exponential curve
is very flat.  It takes a long time before it reaches the point where the rise is perceptible.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Summer Academic Programs
Hello, all.  Both of my teenage sons are scheduled to participate in on-campus academic enrichment programs at separate colleges in June.  In view of recent developments, I am growing increasingly concerned about the prospect of letting them go, particularly since it involves being housed in dorms on the respective campuses.  One of the programs lasts for three weeks, and the other is approximately five days.  Any thoughts or advice?  Both colleges are in Missouri.

if it were seasonal flu
and nothing else, what would you do? That's probably what I'd do with my kids, except with special precautions. handwashing, questions about whether the program has a doc assigned, etc...

[ Parent ]
Seasonal flu in the dead of winter
I'd have to stop and think but might still let them go.  Any pre-existing conditions or history of being susceptible to picking up viral diseases, and their likelihood of going would be far less.

Atypical flu out of season, such as summer?  My perceptions say there's something wrong with the picture, and I don't think I'd let them go.

Nobody knows what they'd do in any given situation until they're the ones who have to make the decision, which is why I have to say it's what I think I'd do or not do, rather than saying for sure what my action(s) would be.


[ Parent ]
agreed!
though my own kids want to stay active, and the question has come up. ;-0

[ Parent ]
I'm having those same feelings -- something's not right.
Besides, I always have them vaccinated for seasonal flu.  No such luxury here. I'm just keeping my ear to the ground and watching developments closely.  The youngest's program doesn't begin until June 6th or 7th.

[ Parent ]
I agree with Dem
if this was seasonal flu, what would you do?  Find out who will look after them if they catch the flu, and whether this person is clued up about swine flu.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Wait and watch
My kids have summer camps also.  I'm taking the wait and see approach.  If you have the ability to do so, hold off on the decision and see what develops over the next two weeks.  I'm expecting the level of societal concern about this to increase, rightly or wrongly.  I would not be surprised if some of the summer camps were canceled.  My kids camps are later in the summer.  I expect them to be canceled, and have told my kids to not be surprised if it occurs.  But I could be wrong.  I recommend holding off on your decision as long as you can.

[ Parent ]
Good advice.
Thanks for the great input from everyone.  Okieman, that has been my thinking, too -- that the programs may be canceled anyway.  I do have to make the last tuition payment for one of the programs by May 29th, but their refund policy is actually pretty lenient.  Besides, money would not be an issue if I felt either of my children's welfare was in jeopardy.  Ya gotta do what ya gotta do!

[ Parent ]
Warning: Images of Pandemic Peak May Be Further Away Than They Appear
When folks here ask why the general public (or even the media and non-medical officials) don't get the potential risk of H1N1 Human Swine flu and seem intent on deludig themselves into believing that we are at the end rather than the beginning of this event, I got to wondering:

It may be a matter of perspective.

In trying to get our minds wrapped around the threat of a new infectious disease, we search for a historical reference to which we can compare it and thus categorize it as a lesser or greater threat.  

The problem is that trying to compare perceptions of this pandemic with perceptions of previous pandemics is like trying to compare two roughly similar objects, while viewing one through a telescope and the other through a microscope.

At this stage, if the current pandemic was occuring in 1968, 1957 or 1918, we would probably not even recognize it as an outbreak of a novel infectious disease.  Yet, in the public's eye the current pandemic is already considered yesterday's news and yesterday's crisis. (We've already moved on to the inevitable media-post mortem of government action and media coverage.)

Today's hightened availability of medical/scientific information and the 24hr news spotlight may have distorted public perception of where we are in the life-cycle of this pandemic and confused the public on whether we have "dodged" the pandemic bullet, creating a false sense of security and a growing sense of complacency at the very time that the pandemic is just starting to build up its true momentum.

Think about the context of the historic examples of pandemic influenza:

In 1918, with the tools they had at the time, they could not even see a virus (and if I remember right, did not even know such a thing existed).   Countries had little data and shared even less with each other while keeping almost everything hidden from the public.  There was no television.  Radio was in its infancy.

In 1957 and 1968, the science and public health infrastructure for infectious disease surveillance and reporting were still a world away from what we have today.  We had only 3 or 4 TV channels that went off the air at about midnight with High Flight* and carried approx 30 minutes of national news per day.

Think of how radically and fundamentally those elements have changed and think of how those changes impact the lens through which we see current events and how they distort our comparisons with historic events.

A global event that unfolds over months or even years is difficult enough to grasp.  But for a public who is trying to pin down their perspective of where we are in the life-cycle of this pandemic, today's real-time tidal wave of knowledge and coverage may have a two edged sword.

The public may be almost finished digesting its TV dinner of fast-food science and getting ready to leave the table.

It may be surprised to learn that a pandemic is a multi-course meal.

*High Flight
"Oh, I have slipped the surly bonds of earth...."
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v...

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


oops.
Was making this into a diary.  

I'll post it anyway so I can use the poll.

Mods you can delete this post if you want.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
This is an interesting thought
I think it sums up the situation well. Did you post it as a diary? I keep feeling like I'm on a beach in Thailand, trying to tell the folks playing in the unusually low water that we need to head for high ground...

Yup. SBS is kicking in. Diary here.
SBS (Sleepy Brain Syndrome)

Warning: Images of Pandemic Peak May Be Further Away Than They Appear

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
It's here!
http://www.ridgecrestca.com/ne...

Ridgecrest Regional Hospital CEO Jim Suver said today that a lab sample had been received from a local doctor's office which raised some concerns of swine flu.
"We've sent the sample to Kern County for testing, but no results have been received so far. At this time, nothing has been confirmed," Suver said.

This is my home town newspaper; I didn't think it merited the news section. My husband's boss has been out sick with the flu all week, but as he's suddenly feeling better he's decided to come in to work tomorrow. :( People just don't get it.

How long do the infected shed this virus again?


about 7 days, or 1 day after end of symptoms
How long do the infected shed this virus again?

but may be shorter if they have taken tamiflu.  I think.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
and may be up to 10 days if you are a kid ;-(
most folks are told to stay home a week, or 24 h no fever, whichever is longer.

[ Parent ]
yes, that was for da boss LOL




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Thank you!
I wish hubby would stay away from work just in case the guy is still sneezing and coughing.

[ Parent ]
Jim Bailey: Swine flu threat fizzles like wet firecracker
Published May 20, 2009 08:22 am -

That's what people are beginning to wonder after the dire warnings about swine flu turned out to be much ado about not very much. Outside Mexico, not that many cases were reported and almost nobody died. Of those who did succumb, independent complications might have made the prognosis ominous under the best of circumstances, considering even your run-of-the-mill seasonal flu cases usually bring a few casualties anyway.

So what's the fuss about? Just world health organizations doing their jobs. Doom and gloom gets the attention of the populace and helps convince people to take precautions they probably should be taking anyhow, such as washing hands, practicing good hygiene and taking it easy when they're sick until the fever and other symptoms subside.

Of course, recommendations that people with flu symptoms stay home are a mixed bag. If a single mom trying to support a family on an $8-an-hour job with no sick leave benefits has an ailing kid, how likely is she to skip work to keep the kid home from school? When pigs fly!

snip

Still we have alarmists sounding foreboding predictions every time something comes along, such as the Asian flu, Hong Kong flu, bird flu and now the so-called swine flu. A case or two pop up and headlines scream, people wear masks and schools are closed indefinitely. And the nation of Egypt threatens to exterminate the country's hog population even though not a single case of swine flu had been reported there (never mind that the piggy link is tenuous and cooking pork adequately destroys any viruses present).

full article
http://www.theheraldbulletin.c...

(It continues to amaze me how journalists cannot have somewhat of a balanced view when it comes to diseases.)


United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com


Where's the current Rumor thread? n/t


GetPandemicReady.org - non commerical website with practical ways for families to prepare.

CA not reporting #'s
I have been closely watching my state's web site for update's on the probable and confirmed cases in California.  The site is listed under the CA Department of Public Heath but I am told that another department is responsible for managing the site.  This is the only site that shares information with the public.  The numbers on the site were last updated on  May 15th which was last Friday (almost a week ago).  These are the same numbers that the CDC is using for California (553).  I am also watching a number of other states and they seem to update their numbers daily during the week.  Can't get any answers as to why they are not updating the numbers on a more regular basis.  Wondering about this and if anyone else is seeing this happening in their state's reporting.      

New Mexico
is only reporting new numbers two or three times a week.  And their 'suspected cases' number is now always zero, yet every time they report new numbers the confirmed number goes up.

[ Parent ]
if NM has the ability to do the H1N1 test
they will not have a "suspected" category. That was for "influenza A, untypable results, send to CDC" but if there's no "send to CDC", there's only results.

[ Parent ]
What does this mean?
net.soapblox.exception.SoapBloxException: java.sql.SQLException: Incorrect string value: 'xE2x80x90sub...' for column 'commentText' at row 1

It won't let me post, even though the preview works.

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


Jane..."java.sql error"
This is a trick question, right? ;-) 'Cuz you posted the question...

[ Parent ]
It's a database error
The clue is the "sql" which stands for Structured Query Language which is the database engine that's used to store everything here. There's likely some special character in the comment you tried to post that the database doesn't know how to handle. It might still preview without a problem.

[ Parent ]
Jane's a very special character
oh, wait...

[ Parent ]
Request permission to groan? n/t


[ Parent ]
I find this error now and again
with a cut and paste, which I think might pick up a hidden character. One character this database hates is [

[ Parent ]
It also hates single
quotation marks and the symbols above a letter. I run into error codes alot when posting news and I know now to remove these two things if I want it to post.

Life is not so short but that there is always time enough for courtesy. Ralph Waldo Emerson

[ Parent ]
Thanks! Finally I typed in the subject instead of pasting,
using nearly the same words, and it worked. There weren't any oddball characters in the original.  Must have been another level of reality, but I don't have the special sunglasses to see it.  lol

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
Don't ever don THOSE sunglasses
You'll go mad.

no you won't. yes, you will. no, you won't. Well, who asked you. Shut up, they'll hear you. shh......

They're coming.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.


[ Parent ]
Error
When I try to post a reply to this comment, I get this error:
net.soapblox.exception.SoapBloxException: java.sql.SQLException: Incorrect string value: 'xE2x80x90ser...' for column 'commentText' at row 1

The error only appears when I hit "Post"; it does not appear when I hit "Preview".
-----------
Any hints as to what I'm doing wrong?


AlohaOR, that's just what I got, when I copied and pasted
in my comment above yours on this thread.  I wondered what part was wrong.  After much trial and error, I thought my problem was in the subject line, where I had pasted something, so I deleted it and typed it in myself.  It did work, even if that wasn't the whole problem.  The code complaint does say "line 1..."  ???  

Computers are so marvelous, then they can be so obscure and maddening.  :-/  

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
CDC numbers
Usually the CDC updates their numbers at 11:00 EST.
They haven't updated their website today.  Any reason?

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

not specifically an answer
but they mentioned during the press conference today that some folks haven't had a day off in a month. maybe it's that.

[ Parent ]
Found the answer
At the top of their state chart, they say the numbers will be updated Monday, Wednesday, and Friday.

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/upd...

Now is that because:
They are swamped
They don't want to instill panic
They feel the wave is peetering out
The numbers aren't changing enough to justify daily updates
They want to mess with the WHO updates
other

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.


[ Parent ]
again, during the news conference
except for NY and New england they think the wave is petering out.

[ Parent ]
and thanks for noticing the M-W-F


[ Parent ]
re
I think they just want to mess with the WHO updates. 8^)

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

[ Parent ]
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