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The use of good judgement during the discussion of controversial issues would be greatly appreciated.

WHO declares swine flu pandemic

by: Bronco Bill

Thu Jun 11, 2009 at 11:50:34 AM EDT


WHO declares swine flu pandemic  (Open this diary to read more.)
Bronco Bill :: WHO declares swine flu pandemic
http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH...

(CNN) -- The World Health Organization raised the swine flu alert Thursday to its highest level, saying H1N1 has spread to enough countries to be considered a global pandemic.Increasing the alert to Level 6 does not mean that the disease is deadlier or more dangerous than before, just that it has spread to more countries, the WHO said.

As of Wednesday evening, the virus had spread to 72 countries, the health agency said. There were 25,288 confirmed cases and 139 deaths. The United States had 13,217 cases and 27 deaths, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said Friday.

Also Thursday, authorities in Hong Kong ordered the closure of all elementary schools, kindergartens and day care centers in the city after 12 students were found to be infected with the virus.

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...and so it is. :) n/t


[ Parent ]
The bird . . .
Even though expecting it, having spent years dreading it, hoping never to see it happen . . .

That flipped bird in the corner has me downright creeped out.

It's like . . . tear-inspiring.

And the email that says . . . "This is not a test" . . .


[ Parent ]
tear inspiring
I did cry. Well it has been a weird day for me in other ways too. I have had 3 BAD things happen today. :-(

[ Parent ]
sorry
I'm sorry, Tammy, I hope things improve!

[ Parent ]
Never really thought I would see the swan tip n/t


[ Parent ]
And flipped on FluWikiOnFacebook n/t


[ Parent ]
Flipped the bird and the email
It was almost with relief that I saw these things occur - now at least more people might take the situation seriously.

A very special thankyou to Bronco Bill and his helpers for maintaining the email list and making this work/happen.

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon


[ Parent ]
not really...
..when I told DD to expect this she said "I don't follow that foolishness..."..

sigh

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.


[ Parent ]
not the only one
when I suggested to my other half that now that WHO had declared it officially a pandemic that he might like to come aboard on planning or at least understand that I was going to need his help if things turn belly up in the autumn, I got an even bigger rolling of eyes than usual.. I am sorely tempted to give him the keys to the caravan and some tins of soup then lock the house from the inside ;-)

[ Parent ]
"almost with relief"
I agree.  On both counts: "almost with relief" and "thanks to all".

We need a page to welcome not-so-early adopters.  With their adjustment reaction.

This will also help us with our own adjustment reaction.  Or do you think we're done with it yet?  I mean, welcoming hoardes of newbies may come as quite a shock.  A welcome shock, but a shock nevertless.

Personally, I'll be back on Monday.  Feel free to start any and all threads. ;-)

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
Shouldn't it be an upside down pig? :)


[ Parent ]
WHO declares swine flu pandemic
It's still not on the WHO site. Nothing like throwing a party and forgetting to show up!!!!

WTF? CDC's US Response to Pandemic Declaration
So, Pandemicflu.gov has no mention of it yet.  Ok.  I understand.  

WHO's declaration of Phase 6 came on so suddenly it took everyone by surprise.

So I go to the CDC site.  Nothing remarkable (meaning no word of Phase 6) on the Swine Flu home page: http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/

"Aha" I say to myself.  It's so new, it's probably under "What's New".  http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/wha...

Sure enough, in an admirably understated approach, the only mention is


Thu, 11 Jun 2009 12:00:00 EST Webcast:
U.S. Response to Pandemic Declaration
Jun 11, 12:00 PM Webcast

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/web...

Which takes you to a picture of a youtube video of Secretary of HHS Sebelius.  

Only slight problem, when you actually try to play the video at that site, it comes up with this:

This is a private video.   If you have been sent this video, please make sure you accept the sender's friend request.

If you try to watch it at the youtube site, you have to sign in to youtube.  

As I said above, it must be the total and absolute lack of lead time that is causing every single responsible agency to stumble around like a bad scene from a Jackass movie.  

I understand downplaying this whole thing.  I don't necessarily agree with the strategy, but I do understand it.

What I really, really, really don't understand is the credibility destroying manner in which they have chosen to downplay it.

And these are the people in whom we are supposed to place our trust if the next wave (or next pandemic) is more severe?  

Ijots.    

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
CDC Links Now Working and Supplemented
And thank you, CDCers.

http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/wha...


Thu, 11 Jun 2009 14:15:00 EST Webcast: U.S. Response to Pandemic Declaration
Webcast of HHS Secretary Sebelius describing U.S. response to WHO Pandemic Declaration
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/web...

Thu, 11 Jun 2009 14:15:00 EST Statements by HHS Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and DHS Secretary Janet Napolitano on WHO Pandemic Declaration
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Secretary Kathleen Sebelius and U.S. Department of Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano issued the following statement in response to the World Health Organization's (WHO) decision to raise the pandemic threat level on the novel H1N1 virus.
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/sta...

Thu, 11 Jun 2009 12:30:00 EST H1N1 Flu (Swine Flu) Situation SummaryOn June 11, 2009, the World Health Organization (WHO) raised the worldwide pandemic alert level to Phase 6 in response to the ongoing global spread of the novel influenza A (H1N1) virus. A Phase 6 designation indicates that a global pandemic is underway.
http://www.cdc.gov/h1n1flu/upd...



ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
Margaret Chan on CNN TV
moderate severity

majority of cases under age 25,

in some countries, 2% of cases severe. Most severe and fatal cases in adults 30-50 years.

underlying conditions

pregnant women

greatest concern - don't not know how it will behave in developing world.  So far in comparatively well off countries.  2 reasons for concern:

1) >99% of maternal death occurs in developing world (gosh, I get goosebumps)

2) 85% of chronic diseases in middle and low income countries



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


typically rapid spread
6-9 months previously when travel was by ship or rail.  Countries should expect cases.  Countries with cases that have peaked should prepare second wave.

countries with no or few cases should remain vigilant.

countries with widespread cases - focus on management of patients.  



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


Chan is dancing around the question, "Should we care?"
She is answering a reporter's question, "should the average person lose any sleep over this?" by talkng about global assessment, country and area severities... now she turned it over to an unnamed assistant, who's saying that most people are getting over it just fine, but that they are concerned with the fact that more serious illnesses "than usual" were happening in younger people, and in previously healthy person... he says "in general" the health systems have been able to cope... that is why they are listing it as "moderate" (notice -- not mild!) And he is defining "severity" as a variable definition that depends as much on the local population as on the actual virus... good point...
Cathy  

[ Parent ]
Unnamed Assistant was Fukadu
Oops - I guess he is well-known enough to some to not need to introduce him....

But she just mentioned we will have to stay vigilant for "the next two or three years"... that's a long time for regular folks to stay alert!!


[ Parent ]
the journalists all know Keiji Fukuda ;-)
He's been briefing them regularly for a while.

Yes, I agree about the difficulty on vigilance.  



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Yes, just us newbies...
... who don't know the key players! ;-}
I have seen the name over and over, but not having a tv, had never seen nor heard the man... ah, well...
Cathy

[ Parent ]
Cathy M you can see and hear him here
http://video.who.int/streaming...

that's the link to the WHO press conference today.

Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little- Edmund Burke


[ Parent ]
2nd Wave
Thank you Bronco Bill for the update.

Is the US considered in the ranks of peak cases now to where we would be looking for a second wave soon?  If so, any ideas on what to expect in a second wave?

Thank you,

Angie


[ Parent ]
second wave is more toward fall
this isn't exactly comparable because all pandemics are different, but the concept should help.



[ Parent ]
vaccines
produciton of seasonal vax completed soon, and full capacity available to make vaccine.

Pending that several NPI can confirm some protection, WHO recommend no restrictions on travel, no border closures



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


Upside down swan?
I appreciate the upside down swan,

But in this case, I think an upside pig would be more appropriate.

Le'ts save the upside down swan for an avian pandemic.


Just rolling along, making waves and causing trouble...


Upside down black swan perhaps
What indicator will the swan have for when we go to a significantly higher mortality rate?

[ Parent ]
Black swan with Current CFR
Nika,

 My knee jerk reaction is black swant with current CFR.

 As hospitals become overwhelmed and things shut down the number of cases that do not make it will rise.

 H1N1 is a global pandemic but is killing very few. Where as H1N5 could have a CFR of 60% - black swan with a 60. H1N5 with no medical intervention could be 80% - black swan with 80 painted on it.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Flipping the bird on H5N1
Some suggested pics:

http://www.flickr.com/photos/3...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/3...

http://www.flickr.com/photos/3...

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.


[ Parent ]
My vote is for #2
My vote is for #2.  In a documentary by two French brothers about 9/11, one scene is NYPD officer saying "WTF do you think this is?  Disney World?"  


[ Parent ]
I like the first one.
Probably no copyright problems with it, either.
Then there are pictures of emergency exercises with people lying all around.  8-O

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
I vote #2 as well...
Donald gets on my nerves...

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.

[ Parent ]
it's very appropriate considering
that the swan is part of the FW 'logo'

and that was kind of the planned signal. A bit creepy to see tho. Let's just hope the virus doesn't get any meaner.

Nobody made a greater mistake than he who did nothing because he could do only a little- Edmund Burke


[ Parent ]
thanks for the thought


[ Parent ]
H5N1 still at alert level 3
I liked that she mentioned that H5N1 was at phase 3 and that this was the first time we had two novel flu viruses in circulation at the same time.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

It's been past 3
for quite a while now, imo.  

[ Parent ]
How long at phase 6
BroncoBill,

 Thanks for the email.

 Nothing to Phase six (P6) in under two months - right? Wow.

 Will the early H1N1 vaccine be good against the fall version of the virus??

 Glad this thing is not that bad a bug. I'm really glad H5N1 has been slow to spread.

Kobie


Vaccine?
I'm not even betting there will be any vaccine available, much less making guesses about whether it'll be effective in the fall.

I also wouldn't be willing to say yet that H1N1 isn't "that bad a bug".  We don't really know what will happen next week or next month . . .


[ Parent ]
Vaccine?
Doesn't it take 6 months to produce a reasonable quantity of vaccine? So that would be...December???  

[ Parent ]
there are faster alternatives
The recombinant hemagglutinin (rHA) vaccine can be made in 8 weeks instead of 4 months.  The technology is basically ready, they are just waiting for FDA licensure.  But there are unresolved issues which I wrote about here http://www.newfluwiki2.com/dia...

The advantages of this vaccine also discussed here, in the context of getting enough H5N1 vaccines for the whole world.  http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
as far as I know
the company is in negotiation with a number of countries including Mexico and S Korea, to do technology transfer.  This vaccine can be made in bioreactors that are commonly used for pharmaceuticals, so countries can just use those existing facilities, and start cranking out vaccines once the initial pilot lots (expected end of June) have gone through clinical trials and licensure.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
CDC not saying there will be no vaccine - just hints
Clawdia,

 So far all I have heard is "there may not be the quantity of antigens we want" It was not just that it may take a little or alot of antigens per shot - but the overal quantiy of antigens period.

 Yes there is some concern voiced that H1N1 could be come tamiflu resistant. So reducing the number of season flu cases that could pass this resistance on to H1N1 is good.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Right now, I don't care
what they say.  The inescapable reality is that there may well be no vaccine - and even if there is one, most people here might not be able to get any.

All I'm trying to say is don't bet on there being a vaccine - there isn't one right now.

Remember all the talk about an HIV vaccine?  There still isn't one.


[ Parent ]
H1N1 & H5N1 mixing over the summer?

 Any thoughts on H1N1 and H5N1 mixing over the summer in Egypt, Indonesia, Austrailia, Inida?

Kobie


always a worry
hasn't happened with seasonal flu yet.

[ Parent ]
Good point
DemFromCT,

 Good point about seasnal flu.

 Just want to keep the possibilities grounded while keeping the door open to what could happen.

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Seasonal Flu vs. H1N1
H5N1 has not mixed with seasonal flu, but does seasonal flu contain genes from North American Bird Flu?  Might not that make things a little cozier for H1N1 and H5N1 to mix it up?

[ Parent ]
seasonal flu
that H1N1 has been circulating among humans for many decades, so the avian features are basically gone.  Now this novel H1N1 does have 1 out of 8 genes, that was more recently descended from avian ancestors.  

But the point is. the kind of reassortments that we've seen with H5N1, is really between fully avian viruses, and not avian viruses that have gone into mammals.  At least as far as I know.

In general, reassortment between viruses of the SAME host (ie avian, or human) is extremely common.  Reassortment between viruses of different mammalian hosts (eg swine vs human) is much less frequent but occurs often enough to be observed.  

In the case of the human host, reassortment between a human-adapted virus and genes from avian origin, has only happened twice in the past century, 1957 and 68.  So, it isn't that it can't happen, but it's extremely rare, considering the amount of reassortment that happens WITHIN the same host species.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Does H5N1 + H1N1=turkeyduckingoosepig signal?


It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.

[ Parent ]
LOL And who is going to make the icon? n/t




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
icon
photomontage is my speciality!

[ Parent ]
entries welcome!
post 'em or email me and I'll post 'em. Contact info to the right.

[ Parent ]
turkey+chicken+duck and goose=churkendoose
My dad was a big Mitch Miller fan and he played those vinyl records until they wore out!

Ray Bolger sang "Churkendoose", a children's book by Ben Ross Berenberg published in 1946 to Alec Wilder music in the late '40's; it was conducted by Mitch Miller.

http://www.amazon.com/gp/custo...

 

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.


[ Parent ]
Hey-you flipped the bird on Old yeller too! Kool!


It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.

[ Parent ]
Short answer:
yes.

But I'd bet more on mid to late Fall.  


[ Parent ]
Thank you
H1n1 and H5N1 and tamiflu resistant N1 mixing - scary.

 That is all we need: the 63% CFR of H5N1 with the velocity of H1N1.

 It may be a low probability or we may not have the facts to calculate probability but at least we can see it.

 If we can see it - so can others. (hint hint TPTB)

Kobie


[ Parent ]
Phase 6
Thank you Bronco Bill for the update.

Is the US considered in the ranks of peak cases now to where we would be looking for a second wave soon?  If so, any ideas on what to expect in a second wave?



what to look for in second wave
that would be a LONG discussion.  Like when, and how severe.  Whether and when there will be vaccines.  Will tptb close schools early.  Can the health system stay up. etc.

Stay tuned.  There'll be lots of discussion on this forum, I reckon.  



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
CDC webcast on H1n1

Source:http://www.videonewswire.com/cdc/59695/event.html


CDC webcast just eneded. Transcript ready in a few hours. Kobie


[ Parent ]
Sec.Sebelius on US Response to Pandemic Declaration
Fla_Medic Blogging `A Vaccine Reality Check From the CDC'
Fla_Medic Blogging `A Vaccine Reality Check From the CDC'

Source: http://tinyurl.com/lhls47


Getting true statistics will be difficult
Once again I believe that we will not get true numbers of H1N1 cases for 3 reasons:

1.  A lot of people, given that there is not the "this will definitely kill you" scare, are not seeing a doctor so are not being tested for the flu - I know of co-workers of confirmed cases here in NZ who have been very ill with the flu and have not sought medical attention.

2.  Even those that do seek medical attention, prior to a change of status earlier this week where it became a notifiable disease, are/were not having samples taken and tested.

3.  When samples are being taken and type A confirmed, not all are being sent to an official WHO lab for further identification and are listed as probable cases.  This means the numbers are not being recorded in WHO's official figures.

Like so many others, it is the second wave I fear most....

Eat pudding first - who know's what might happen next! - Anon


waves may not be as clearlt defined
Because of the constant travel of people, introduction of new germs is almost constant now. This might mean the pattern will be more wavelike with less obvious spiking.

And btw I think I may have had the swine flu at the end of April. 5 days after attending a passover dinner in Queens I became really ill with the first case of flu I've had in many years.


videos for today's announcement
http://www.who.int/mediacentre...



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


Greatest Current Concern - Virus Behavior in Developing World
Finally, and perhaps of greatest concern, we do not know how this virus will behave under conditions typically found in the developing world. To date, the vast majority of cases have been detected and investigated in comparatively well-off countries.

Let me underscore two of many reasons for this concern. First, more than 99% of maternal deaths - which are a marker of poor quality care during pregnancy and childbirth - occur in the developing world. Second, around 85% of the burden of chronic diseases is concentrated in low- and middle-income countries.

Although the pandemic appears to have moderate severity in comparatively well-off countries, it is prudent to anticipate a bleaker picture as the virus spreads to areas with limited resources, poor health care, and a high prevalence of underlying medical problems.

Transcript available here:
http://www.who.int/mediacentre...

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
And Targeting Larger Populations of Youth
In addition to the poverty and worse health care systems, the WHO presentation also reminded us that demographic differences between the hemispheres and between countries may play an important role in pandemic impact.

Dr. Chan:

We know that the novel H1N1 virus preferentially infects younger people. In nearly all areas with large and sustained outbreaks, the majority of cases have occurred in people under the age of 25 years. In some of these countries, around 2% of cases have developed severe illness, often with very rapid progression to life threatening pneumonia. Most cases of severe and fatal infections have been in adults between the ages of 30 and 50 years....
...
At the same time, it is important to note that around on third to half of the severe and fatal infections are occurring in previously healthy young and middle-aged people. Without question, pregnant women are at increased risk of complications. This heightened risk takes on added importance for a virus, like this one, that preferentially infects younger age groups.

Dr. Fukuda:

And so, when we looked at that, we saw that while some of these are occurring in different age groups, really the predominant number of serious illnesses are taking place in younger people. So this is different from what we see with regular seasonal influenza. Moreover, we saw that about half of these take place in people who were previously healthy and do not have any pre-existing conditions.

...we know that in the Southern Hemisphere there are populations which are younger.  

With those statistics in mind, compare the population pyramid for:

United States:
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/...

or Canada:
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/...

or the UK:
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/...

With that of Indonesia:
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/...

or Chile:
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/...

or India:
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/...

or Argentina:
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/...

or Somalia:
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/...

or Nigeria:
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/...

or China:
http://www.census.gov/cgi-bin/...

And at least according to the WHO data, the penetration of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic into the African continent is essentially nil as far as we know. http://www.who.int/csr/don/200...

This pandemic may find a much richer target environment in many of the less developed countries, who also have fewer resources to deal with the pandemic.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
PNG a good example
Flu virus may spread here

THERE is no doubt that Influenza A (H1N1) or swine flu - spreading at an alarming rate in Australia - is going to enter Papua New Guinea, a senior medical doctor warned yesterday.
And, if it does, the virus will spread like fire due to the environment and the type of lifestyle of the people in the country, Dr Mathias Sapuri said.
"I have no doubts that it (swine flu) is coming so we need to be vigilant in our screening and ensure that people are treated properly so they do not get very sick," Dr Sapuri said.
Dr Sapuri reiterated his call for health workers to screen for H1N1 flu in all patients that came with flu-like symptoms.
He said this was being done at the Pacific International Hospital (PIH) where he worked and had treated and quarantined seven suspects who were now recovering. The hospital was now awaiting results from the swabs that were taken and sent to a laboratory in Melbourne.

[snip]

Dr Sapuri said the most vulnerable were the elderly, young children, people with HIV and the undernourished. In PNG, he said, many people were not eating properly and therefore had low immune systems to be able to respond well to diseases such as this new influenza strain, while at the same time, the lifestyle of many people put them in vulnerable positions as well.
"In Port Moresby, we live in crowded places, we have crowded and small pockets of population, if you have an epidemic, it will spread like fire,'' he warned. He also said every effort must be taken to prevent the virus spreading in the country because if it did, like in Australia, it would put a lot of pressure on the health system. Symptoms of the HIN1 flu include high fever, cough, runny nose, body aches, sore throat and chills.

http://www.postcourier.com.pg/...


[ Parent ]
Please note
That there is still much ignorance concerning the ages most at risk.  This disease can and does effect the middle aged, in addition to the "elderly, young children, people with HIV and the undernourished".  Developing countries like PNG have a tremendous struggle before them.

[ Parent ]
This is one of my concerns at the moment.
Although H1N1 is described as "moderate", I worry about the people in the mega slums around the world like in Mumbai, Rio, Lagos etc. What will happen when H1N1 starts hitting people in overcrowded living conditions who are already weakened by poverty, malnutrition and/or disease?

[ Parent ]
Mega-Cities: Big #s and High Density; UN MDGs
The size and density of our large urban metropolitan centers (agglomerations) has changed significantly since the 50s and 60s and has changed radically since 1918.  Just for comparison between the 50s and now:

In 1950, there were two mega-cities with 10 million or more inhabitants. By 2005, their number had increased to 20 and it is projected that there will be 22 mega-cities in 2015. Developing countries will have 17 of these 22 mega-cities in 2015.

http://www.un.org/esa/populati...

2005 Revision of World Urbanization Prospects
http://www.un.org/esa/populati...

List of metropolitan areas by population (population and density)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L...

Dr Chan, in her Phase 6 Pandemic announcement, also referred to the importance of the UN Millenium Development Goals.  For anyone not familiar with these they are specific, tangible outcomes that were set as goals starting back in 2000 to acomplish the following:

Goal 1: Eradicate Extreme Hunger and Poverty
Goal 2: Achieve Universal Primary Education
Goal 3: Promote Gender Equality and Empower Women
Goal 4: Reduce Child Mortality
Goal 5: Improve Maternal Health
Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other diseases
Goal 7: Ensure Environmental Sustainability
Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development

You can find more information here:

http://www.unmillenniumproject...

Background on the initial Millenium Development Declaration can be found here:
http://www.un.org/millenniumgo...  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
Da bird
All this time, I thought it would be the birf flu that would be the pandemic alert (until April, that is)...weird how things happen, huh?

I've always said: one of the scariest phrases in the English language is, "THIS IS NOT A TEST/DRILL" ! :-)

Despite all of this, I feel strangely calm. I've just been sitting here, trying to fine-tune my plans. I went on 1 of the sites mentioned above (prepping), and found that I already had everything I needed, which is comforting.

Thanks to all who gathered the news, and to Bronco Bill for notifying us.

Also, even if things get very bad, let's keep in touch here--we need each other. Thanks!


we already had
our adjustment reaction. we had it years ago.

[ Parent ]
For Those Who Are Facing Adjustment Now
For many of us, DemfromCt is right.  We went through our own adjustment reaction some time ago, each in our own time and in our own way incorporating what we had learned into our new definition of the world and going through the emotional reactions to that new reality.

For those who are new to the Flu Wiki Forum or are new to the reality of the potential threat from pandemics, I offer some advice:

You are right to fear this thing.  

You probably won't hear that kind of statement very often because our culture has gotten it into its collective head that fear is bad.  

It's not, at least not for the most part.  

For now, it is important for you to know that almost every single person I know who has done their homework on this thing has a very reasonable, very rational and very sizable fear of a moderate or severe pandemic.

A normal person cannot contemplate the very likely impacts of such a pandemic without experiencing both a rational concern and at some level an emotional fright.  Not panic, but reasonable fear over a real potential danger.

This advice is repeated from a diary I did some years ago and while the 2009 H1N1 pandemic has not yet turned into as dire a threat as I described then, that potential has not gone away and neither has our very natural and reasonable emotional response.

So if, especially today when Phase 6 has been announced, you are struggling with that adjustment response just a bit,  take heart.  

You are not alone.  

You Are Right to Be Afraid
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/dia...

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
If you get freaked, stop! then come visit us ....
...we know EXACTLY what you're going thru-we've been there, done that, got the T-shirt.

Knowledge is your best defense-learn what you can, then teach others and hope they teach others.

Remember-some people will get sick, and some will die-that's inevitable.

BUT:

The vast,vast majority of us will not die. The more we teach, then hopefully we can reduce the level of illness, and therefore death.

Never in recorded times has a pandemic been watched this closely as it developed and spread. With satellite communications and the Internet information is shared in record time-or real time!

Visit the Fluwikie often, ask questions. We were all newbies once.

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.


[ Parent ]
And if you get really freaked out
and the above advise doesn't help, eat krispy Kream donughts. That always helped me. ;-)

Seriously, it'll be a roller coaster ride of emotions for awhile. Alot of us newbies went through it. I found taking breaks from pan flu news helped, along with living my life and spending time with my family. Going over my preps and making prep runs calms a prepper down. It's an positive thing to do and you do fell better about laying in preps.

If you do start to feel depressed and you don't feel you have anyone that you can talk to, we're always here. We understand. Let's face it, at this point not many people are concerned about this, so finding someone to relay your concerns to will be difficult. Heck the number of people I can talk to about this I can count on 3 fingers! LOL! Even though many here are "seasoned" preppers, we all still experience some sort of distress about this.

The best advice I can give, is to concetrate on your preps and be with your family. I wouldn't try to talk to much about this with them unless they are asking questions. We still have to try and keep normalcy in our families daily lives.

cottontop

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com


[ Parent ]
..Krispy Kremes-good idea..


It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.

[ Parent ]
Ah Grace, Krispy Kreams
are always a good idea! LOL  

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com


[ Parent ]
It is SO nice to read the comments above!
I've been mostly a lurker here for a while but have posted a few news stories as well. I'm learning a lot and prepping slowly. I suspect it that will pick up now.

You all write so calmly about what is happening and it's good to know that you had your own "adjustment" periods. I'm going through mine and recently stepped away from the FW for a few days and all pan-news. It can get a bit overwhelming.

Yes, my family thinks I'm just insane in spite of the news reports. I have a friend that is planning to travel to Australia and will heed no warnings. Another is fixing to send her kids off to summer camp in upstate New York. [sigh]

I don't always understand the science here as I am not a medical professional but I get the gist of it. As I prep I think about why I'm doing it and sometimes it strengthens my resolve to get it done and other times it seems, well...such a dark task, especially because I have no other "believers" in my household.

It's so good to come here and get confirmation that what I'm doing and feeling is right and that I'm on track. A huge thanks to you all for keeping me informed and sane. ;)

Tess

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner


[ Parent ]
welcome aboard Tess..
Yes, we all faced those completly overwhelming moments before. My family thinks my prepping is craziness, but i don't prep for me, I prep for my 2 grandsons. If their parents throw caution to the wind, why should they suffer?

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.

[ Parent ]
You can have your doughnuts...
... as long as I get my Heavenly Hash ice cream.

[ Parent ]
Heavenly Hash?
I'ms sure that's what brought about your miraculous recovery sometime back!

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.

[ Parent ]
It did indeed
That's my story and I'm sticking to it.

[ Parent ]
Uh, Grace, I didn't get my t-shirt. What happened? n/t


"I am opposed to any form of tyranny over the mind of man."  Thomas Jefferson

[ Parent ]
Did we ever decide on a design?
On Old Yeller there were several suggestions, with funny or dead chickens and/or "Ask me about bird flu," and a bio-hazard symbol and others.  If we were supposed to order our own, I missed it.  :-(

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
I didn't get one either.
I do miss Old Yeller...

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.

[ Parent ]
T-Shirt Design by Urdar (circa June 2007)
It all started with urdar's idea about a logo:

http://www.newfluwiki2.com/dia...

Which morphed into more grand ideas for t-shirts and other items to get the folk lured onto Flu Wiki where they could be educated and engaged.

We were very, very close, but barriers at the print shop and life in general conspired to get in the way.  Just never got back to it.  

Here's the last I saw of it.
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...
And here:
http://www.newfluwiki2.com/sho...

Of course, the whole 'bird' theme might not immediately resonate with people in the same way it did back then, but I still think it's a heck of a design.  

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
What Flu Wiki ...
... has done for me :~

I was a Flu Wiki visitor in 'the early days' when there were some fierce but fascinating debates on all manner of subjects with people like GS, Monotreme, Anon22, Dr Niman and Melanie (and DemfromCT of course). At the time, I'd recently learnt about the threat posed by H5N1 and like many people, believed a pandemic to be just around the corner. My first reaction was shock - was I really going to die from this? - and my second reaction was 'bunker down' - plan for total self sufficiency and isolation.

I spent lots of money on inappropriate food that I would never eat under normal circumstances (most of which I threw away last year) and made a general nuisance of myself in trying to get my family to do the same. My husband was of the opinion that I was a complet nutter.

When the immediate threat died down, I drifted away from FW and often felt quite silly when I looked at all the stuff I had under the bed (and in cupboards, sheds, the garage, the loft, under the stairs...).

I pretty much forgot about H5N1 and carried on with life as normal. I tried to use my preps as best I could but resigned myself to writing most of it off. Then, a couple of years ago, we had serious flooding in the area of the UK in which I live (Gloucestershire) and because our local pumping station was under water, had no running water for nearly two weeks and no power for a few days. Because of the water butts I insisted my husband install in the garden in the H5N1 days, we had enough water for toilet flushing, body-washes and the cleaning of clothes (which most of our neighbours did not). Because of our bottled water stores, we did not have to rely on army deliveries, which were sporadic at best.

Whilst the situation above was difficult rather than life-threatening, it was a real eye-opener and surprising how quickly day-to-day life became uncomfortable. It was also heartbreaking to see elderly people trying to struggle from the army water tanks to their homes with open buckets of water (sometimes a over a mile away).

During my early visits to Flu Wiki, I learnt some things about virology, a lot about group behaviour, a lot about (sometimes unrealistic) expectations, and a lot about my own assumptions and reactions. I learnt to grow vegetables, to identify and use some wild foods. I learnt to 'always have a plan'.

My reaction to the threat posed by H1N1 has been pragmatic; 'it is what it is' (courtesy of Dem) and I don't think hiding away will do much good. I've prepped in-so-much-as I've got about a month's worth of food & supplies but I can react quickly and get more if I need to.

Most importantly, I've had my adjustment reaction and am better able to cope calmly and logically in this and other threatening situations - my life is also richer for the knowledge I have gained.


[ Parent ]
Good for you
an emergency is an emergency is an emergency. After the horrific management of our Hurricane Katrina in 2005, I vowed not to 'be without' if some diaster occured in our area.

Good for you for being ready! Did you husband think you were 'quite such a nutter' when your preps made his life a little easier?

And what is a water butt?

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.


[ Parent ]
He still thinks I'm ...
... a nutter but was very glad of our water supplies during the floods. A water butt is a rain-capture tank (not sure what you call it in the US).

I remember you and your calm words of wisdom from 'the old days' Grace. Glad to see you're still making people feel welcome and giving such kind and well-balanced advice.


[ Parent ]
You are most gracious!
Your words are most kind, and much appreciated.

We have rain barrels too in the US; I'm trying to talk DH into putting 2-3 up around our house, he thinks I'm a 'nutter' as well. At least I'm in good company!

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.


[ Parent ]
that is a nice story, thank you! n/t




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Two web sites to watch (After FluWikie)
The Emergency & Wireless Network (a FREE Public Service):
http://www.emergencyemail.org/...
You can register on this site for free for emergency notifications in your state

National Swine Flu Situation Page
http://www.vuetoo.com/vue1/Sit...
Graphical page with constantly updated "official" news
 


Thanks for these links BB..
I just signed up at The Emergency & wirless Network. I'm sending the links on to family and friends.

United we stand: Divided we fall
www.flunewsnetwork.com


[ Parent ]
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