What is your current PPF? 09/05/09 to 12/31/09

I'm about a 4

I was 3.5

I moved up only because it's picking up with school season.

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

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by: Oremus @ Sat Sep 05, 2009 at 22:35:30 PM UTC

Firmly at the highest level

Anon-451's great grandchild is in the Hospital with H1N1.

Tell the truth

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by: Goju @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 00:14:50 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

mmm

I'm finding it hard to get a handle on quantifying this thing tbh.. on the one hand, it is probably no worse than seasonal flu in the majority of cases( accepting that real flu is pretty rough and can cause nasty illness and death in even apparently healthy folk) but on the other hand it has been causing serious and often fatal illness in a few.. I am probably hovering between 4 and 5 mainly because school has just gone back here so we are entering the usual long winter drag of ailments , no doubt worse this year due in part to the kids hardly seeing a ray of sunshine all break. None of us are in the categories up for a vaccine in the near future, so I have to hope that enough herd immunity is gained by those in dire need getting it... which given the fears over the adjuvant in the UK vaccine, I'm not confident is going to happen anytime soon.. so realistically, we are going to catch it like we catch flu every year or so and can only hope that a few days in bed will be the worst outcome for us all.

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by: coldethyl @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 11:59:15 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Code Red!!! I say Code Red!!!!!!!

I believe that it is only a matter of time untill TSHF. I hope I am wrong. We have been slowly prepping, using a short list (things we really need) and a long list (things that would be nice) We are ready to SIP. I have already told my boss that if things get really bad, I would not be comming to work. Jon C  

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by: JonC @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 02:30:57 AM UTC

I moved it up as well

There's so much socializing/gathering that goes on in the fall: School starts, state fairs, football/sporting events, holiday shopping & parties, winter olympics. Not to mention flying to & from some of these events.

These are just petri dishes for infection to spread. My pucker is a bit tighter than it was this summer!

 



"History never looks like history when you are living through it." ~John W. Gardner

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by: tess @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 11:06:18 AM UTC

It's gone up recently for a couple of reasons

One reason is that I continue to see rising death tolls and infections, WW, regardless of "season" which means the bugger is here to stay and the longer it is here in our species the more opportunity to adapt to us and become more efficient at both transmission and replication .

The other and bigger reason for recent rise in PPF is the reported potential cases of co-infection with H5N1 - first in Egypt and then in Indonesia.

The immediate denial and claim that the person who was reported as co infected with H5N1 actually had H3N2 leaves me skeptical.  I believe that NAMRU is still doing the testing for H5N1 in Egypt, and they are not prone to mistaking an H5 virus for an H3 virus.  There have been 34 or more confirmed cases of H5N1 in Egypt this year, all accepted without quibble by WHO and the general public as fact. Suddenly this critical case is just a big error?

And those other suspect cases, just errors too?  

I can certainly understand why they would want to tell the public it wasn't true....WW panic might well ensue. And Egypt certainly wouldn't want to be blamed as the starting point should there be a resultant deadly H5N1/H1N1 combo pandemic.  But I am definitely on alert, neck hairs raised.

I am just surprised that there has not been more discussion of this at wiki and that everyone is just taking the party line out of Pro Med at its word without at least questioning some of this.

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 15:00:37 PM UTC

I agree

that the level of discussion on these issues has been somewhat limited.. I'm not sure though that a mistake was made in identifying H3N2 as H5N1 though.. rather that a rumour started that made the assumption that an individual was co-infected with it and H1N1, a rumour which was quickly put to bed by the CDC among others? This is somewhat different. Similarly, the Indonesian case seems to be one of uncertainty what influenza strain the woman died from, not one of co-infection? I may of course be misreading this, but as I read it two labs tested negative for H5N1 and one has so far produced the possibility of a positive result that is being further looked at.. reports seem to suggest she was treat as an H1N1 candidate on the basis of excluding H5N1, but that now this lab result has confused the issue?

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by: coldethyl @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 15:41:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Have not accepted the Egyptian statement at all!

I am waiting for WHO to make a definitive statement, which I shall accept. I am sure that WHO are doing their own tests, as their statement that there was co-infection came after the Minister of Health denied it the second time (assuming that the journo which did the interview wasn't way out of line).

OTOH, it should take more than a handful of co-infections for the two viruses to do the nasty business...

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by: Ruby Murray @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 16:31:26 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I recall reading that bit about them mistaking H3N2 for H5N1 in an article.

I think it was from ProMed...I'll try to find it and if I do I'll give you the link.

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 18:54:38 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

thanks n/t

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by: coldethyl @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 18:57:01 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Here's the link...it was on the egypt thread.

http://blogs.sciencemag.org/sc...

Always have a plan B.

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by: maryinhawaii @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 18:58:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

thanks- saw that one

maybe I interpret it differently.. to me that says it was reported that he had tested postive for both..that's not the same as he did test positive for both,or that they mis-typed it.. it is just a case of waiting and seeing I guess, and tbh if not now when, given that it is always going to be a possibility? Though everything crossed that it is a dead end combination everytime it happens * rollseyes*

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by: coldethyl @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 19:11:06 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I'm at a 3.

I think I have a good chance of catching H1N1 - if I haven't gotten it already - but I think it will just make for a miserable week or two. We may see some school closures, a few disruptions in the supply chain etc. but at this juncture I don't see this being TEOTWAWKI. I do think some hospitals will get overwhelmed. With that said, I still am keeping an eye on the situation.  

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by: banshee @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 16:22:32 PM UTC

My PPF

I'm not sure where to place myself. Maybe a 5 or a 6? I'm 31 weeks pregnant, and I'm paranoid about getting it. But at the same time, I'm not ready to SIP and cut my family off from the rest of the world. Our daughter is in preschool now, and I'm letting her attend, but I'm ready to pull her out if needed. H1N1 is in the local public schools, but the districts refuse to release the names of the schools with affected children.

We have decided to go ahead and get the vaccine when it is available, so I think I'll feel better when we can get it. I'll also feel better after I safely deliver our son and am no longer pregnant.  

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by: mimc @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 16:49:19 PM UTC

Please keep us informed about your progress, mimc.

Wishing the best for you and your family and can't wait to hear good news of that little boy.

"I am opposed to any form of tyranny over the mind of man."  Thomas Jefferson

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by: History Lover @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 18:49:16 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

4

I figure, the way it is, right now, I'll get sick (probably at one of my public presentations, lol), feel rotten for a week and knowing me, it'll take me a week to get back to normal.

BUT ... I'm watching closely and reserve my right, as a woman, to change my mind ... k

www.EmergencyHomePreparation.org -- A 'card-catalog' style of prepping information.   -

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by: Readymom @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 16:59:34 PM UTC

After two weeks' recuperation...

You'll be right back at it - I know you! (Thanks for all you do!)

But really, don't try it before 2 weeks.  

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by: InKy @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 21:42:35 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

Ditto here RM

I don't do presentations, but as I work with the public I imagine I'll be picking it up too.  Then I'll be sick a week and recuparate the following week.

Like  you I maintain a woman's perogative!  

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by: WitchMisspelled @ Mon Sep 07, 2009 at 13:41:20 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

I went to a 6

This spring in late April i became so sick that I had to go to the ER and was placed in the Hospital for 7 days. It stated with a headache and sore throat.  Like when I normally get a cold.  but this came with a cough that lasted for 2 weeks, chest pains, unable to breath right, loss of balance among others,  It was determined that I did have flu, and a couple of other medical problems at the same tine.  

So I expect, I'll get this AH1N1 flu once it hits a lot of school kids, since I seem to get the flu every year or so; after spending time with my grandkids and a daughter who teaches.

Yes it is a 6 and probably will go up to an 8 in 30-45 days.

  No warning - no way to fight - no way to win!  
We need help in our local communities to survive. Remember that quote:    "...No man is an island..."

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by: RICHARD-FL @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 17:02:32 PM UTC

Let's call it a 5

I'm not in a panic but I'm far from ready to SIP ... could if we had to but don't think it is currently necessary.

Some of my kids have already been exposed to H1N1 and not caught it.  One boy was actually my son's roommate while on a mission trip in Guatemala.  I'm not dismissing the possibility of catching it, but keeping it in perspective.

Staying uptodate so that I can make informed decisions helps with any anxiety I might feel.  Last night my five year old (I was pregnant or he was a baby when I first joined FW I can't remember) complained of a fever and sore throat.  He is still running a fever today but we are fairly certain it is a reaction from too many mosquito bites ... but my anxiety level wants to run away with my commonsense until we figure out which it is.  I hate it when the kids are sick, especially when there is so much crap going around it is hard to tell what they have.

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead

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by: KathyinFL @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 17:29:47 PM UTC

Oh, about a six...

My PPF definitely went up recently with a large outbreak of H1N1 in the local schools. That made it real to me, absolutely confirmed it was in the community, I began to know people who were ill, and you know those kids will spread it around rapidly. The schools stayed open, extracurricular activities continued, no effort was made to contain the infection, because the authorities did not think it serious enough to disrupt school and sports schedules. As far as I can tell, not one public event or social activity in this area has been cancelled due to concerns about the flu. I do understand that thus far the vast majority of those infected have recovered OK, if often after a miserable few days, but for a relative few it's been a disaster, and in many cases it's not clear why. We have to remember that thousands of human beings have died from this, more have suffered long convalescence, some may have been permanently disabled, and that there's no guarantee that it won't become more virulent. In addition, as H1N1 becomes very widespread over the next months, disease surges may impact the availability of medical care, and high absenteeism may cause disruption of distribution systems and various services. Nothing is certain, of course, but enough is quite possible to cause real concern on my part. It doesn't feel appropriate to batten down the hatches just yet, but my supplies are topped off, I'm social distancing (e.g., avoiding crowds, curtailing social activities and most shopping), and practicing careful personal hygiene.  

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by: OldGirlScout @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 18:33:33 PM UTC

Not sure what to think

I said 5, but I'm concerned that it may mutate, and come back as a much more lethal strain during flu season (isn't this what the 1918 flu did?).  Also, as some others said, Fall is the traditional time for school starting and public events (football games, anyone?).  

I'm still keeping up with the preps, even though, despite ramping up my planting last Spring, I've gotten very little from the garden this year. The weather here has not been conducive to good vegetable growing!

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by: WhiteSwan @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 20:18:18 PM UTC

3 and holding steady n/t

All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

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by: SusanC @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 22:34:14 PM UTC

close your eyes and it will go away!

My PPF has upped in recent weeks due to the attitude of the general public.

The flu (and other nasties!) are all around us, yet people refuse to acknowledge that there is anything about which to be concerned.

I'm not asking everyone to SIP, or go out in full PPE, just use a little common sense.

It is just like driving...I'm not worried about what I will do, but worried about all the crazies on the road!

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by: kristikaylene @ Sun Sep 06, 2009 at 23:14:49 PM UTC

3

I will evolve with the situation, but so far it looks like a 3 to me, personally.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

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by: lugon @ Mon Sep 07, 2009 at 08:05:14 AM UTC

My PPF is a 7

I have decided to home school my son, since ever time he gets a cold his asthma kicks in. I feel if I send him to a public school it would be a death sentence. My family thinks I'm taken H1N1 to serious ... They have the mind set it won't happen to us. I'm not in panic mode but I can stop thinking and planning for what could happen.

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by: Sunnybrook @ Mon Sep 07, 2009 at 11:06:46 AM UTC

Hard to tell

I think it's hard to tell at this point.  Yes, people are getting it, but for most it's no more severe than the ordinary flu.

I'm definitely keeping watch on news and info on this thing.

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by: EmilyH @ Mon Sep 07, 2009 at 15:30:26 PM UTC

3 -- given the world spread as it is now...

Like others, I reserve the right to change quickly if the Asian or Middle East situations resolve into some mutation... but it is heartening to me to see so many get just a little bit sick... geting better in 3 days is not a huge bad flu. I know it's really bad for a small percentage of others, and so I am very much social distancing (haven't been to a lecture or crowd thing in months!) but since that wasn't the question, I respond "3" - it probably would knock me out for a week. But I am worried (level 5-6) for all my friends and relatives who have underlying condtions -- most of whom are doing little to nothing about avoiding risk!

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by: Cathy M @ Tue Sep 08, 2009 at 02:18:46 AM UTC

I'm between 6 and 7

We decided to home school our children this year instead of sending them to a private school. My husband travels weekly and works on one of state's Indian reservations.

I think what has heightened my sense of concern is the double-whammy of the flu and the economy. My adult children are struggling. Normally, I'd tell them to come on home until they got on their feet, but if things get worse I don't have preps for 12 people.

I'm just very uneasy ...

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by: Andrzejek @ Tue Sep 08, 2009 at 22:29:10 PM UTC

Suggestion for a new category

in your next poll:

Something like:

"Couldn't get a pin up my ass with a jackhammer."

(Basic idea, not that exact quote, from Charles Barkley, former NBA player.)  

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by: ssal @ Sat Sep 12, 2009 at 02:49:12 AM UTC

Vaccine

Now that I have read about the vaccine being available sooner than later, I wonder if we are being too paranoid.  If this vaccine is supposed to work, and they will have millions of shots available and combine it with the many minor illnesses...why should we worry?  Am I being idealistic?

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by: zahrah @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 18:17:04 PM UTC

Uh . . . I think maybe yes . . .

Out of all the people in this country who will need the vaccine, it seems that what they're saying will be available will be but the proverbial drop in the bucket.

Personally, I don't believe everything they say - and as far as sooner rather than later, I think there will be very little vaccine available before we're seeing a whole lot more cases.  

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by: Clawdia @ Mon Sep 14, 2009 at 18:20:54 PM UTC

[ Parent ]

natural immunity?

What about those who have already recovered from "flu, but not necessarily swine flu, because we are not testing"?

Do they receive vaccinations? Where are they in the pecking order?

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by: kristikaylene @ Tue Sep 15, 2009 at 04:59:45 AM UTC

[ Parent ]

Pucker factor.......not much

I am 63 years old, had open heart surgery Jan of 2008, and was a medic at one in the fire service,,,many moons ago. I am not too concerned with myself (I am a bus aid on special needs bus and preschool bus), so will be exposed for sure. My first student went home with the flu from school friday, so it should be spreading thru the children on the bus because they share the same room, etc. If I get ill, I would expect to be out for at least 10 days, after the fever breaks (even if I feel well will stay out that long, as am reading this virus sheds for a number of days after the fever breaks). Will get caught on on my movies but the kids I am more concerned with, as they will be the ones that get hit harder it seems. My pucker factor,,,,,2

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by: Gary Near Death Valley @ Mon Sep 21, 2009 at 02:39:56 AM UTC