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Charts and Graphs on H5N1 from WHO

by: DemFromCT

Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 19:19:20 PM EST


( - promoted by Bronco Bill)

Click pic for bigger chart. Analysis here by the Reveres.



Other charts/graphs can be found here and are a nice complement to those by FloridaGirl.
DemFromCT :: Charts and Graphs on H5N1 from WHO
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Charts and Graphs on H5N1 from WHO | 39 comments
RE: cases by onset date
I've said before that, although we should not draw any conclusions from 3 data points (except on the rumors thread), I am still struck by the fact that we see a peak in January 2004, peaks in January and March 2005, and January and March 2006. I think January-March of 2007 will bear close watching. I've nothing to base that on other than the undulating wave of case numbers on that second chart.
the second chart also makes clear
(as if it needed it) why the focus has been on indonesia.
[ Parent ]
weather correlation?
Why are we seeing a consistent increase in H5N1 in humans in Jan/Feb/March in countries that do not experience "cold" weather at that time? 

The typical seasonal flu runs rampant in Chicago during those months, but Chicago's weather is far different from that of Indonesia, Thailand, or Vietnam.  What might be the reasons for the seasonal increase in cases in these semi-tropical countries? 

[ Parent ]
they do have 'seasonal' flu,
They do have different weather at different times of the year.  It may not be 'cold' by Chicago standards, but believe me the locals will tell you that is the 'cold' season!

I've seen children being made to wear woollen hats in December in Thailand, even though it was so hot we were there for a 'tropical' vacation.  ;-)

I suspect as far as flu is concerned, it may not just be the temperature, but humidity might play a big part. 



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

[ Parent ]
Nice Graphs!
Those are very cool!... I wish I had access to THEIR data! :)

Well, Those are hard to top! These graphs represent the WHO confirmed cases.  They do a very good representation of the increase in cases by the month and year to year.  And I think I see quite a bit of yellow there... However, countries representing those other colors could add a bit of continuing concern.

No matter which graph you look at, they are all saying the same thing. H5N1 is expanding its grip on human cases.  I believe somewhere I read this is the picture that epidimeolgists most fear.... an unrelenting picture of expanding cases that grow exponentially with time and / or location.  That appears to be the case.

(I wonder if they used a real graph program?)

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have. ~ Margaret Mead

Incidence and CFR by Age Group
I've posted this chart previously on the Case for School Closure thread. 

The WHO chart is misleading in 2 ways:

  1. it doesn't include the Turkish cases
  2. it splits the <10 age group into 2 bars, whereas all the other ages are grouped by decades, thus giving a misleadingly lowered incidence in that age group.





    All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

the WHO graph clearly states
that the 12 turkish cases were excluded. I wonder why?
[ Parent ]
Were the turkish cases confirmed?
If the cases were not confirmed by WHO, then they would not be on the graph.  Did WHO develop this particular graph or did someone else?

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have. ~ Margaret Mead
[ Parent ]
Yes, 12 cases were confirmed by WHO in Turkey
They keep leavin' them off their charts (as they indicate) -- dunno why.

Proud FAF-er.
[ Parent ]
this was WHO western pacific n/t




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...
[ Parent ]
Onset and Country
That chart speaks volumes. If the patterns hold, and I see no reason they should change. Were in for a rough winter. I wonder how much higher the spike will go this peak season in Indonesia. This pretty much ends the speculation of whether H5N1 is more or less of a threat.

Can we post those graphs in a prominent place. I think it would be good for first time viewers to see right off.

they are at the top of the main page
where new viewers come. ;-)
[ Parent ]
Shoulda looked huh sorry n/t

[ Parent ]
The WHO chart answers two questions
First, why is there a lull in cases right now? It would seem consistent that each year it goes down in Nov & more so in Dec.  For all those who've been breathing a sigh of relief, hold that breath, you may need it.
Second, why did TPTB decide it was safe to hold off telling people to stock up for a pandemic until after the holiday buying frenzy? Because statistically tshtf in January. Of course if they all wait to shop until then, it's going to be the predicted panic at the costco. Does anyone have a little more precise data as to when exactly in January the cases start to skyrocket? (early, mid, late?)

Always have a plan B.
FlordiaGirl may have more
http://www.newfluwik...

and here (look for individual cases.xls, sheet 1)

ftp://wikimember:wik...

[ Parent ]
January Cases
MaryInHawaii,
  I looked quickly and came to the conclusion that there is no consistency to determine which week has the most cases.

Observations  for January(s)

2004- 2nd and 4th week tied
2005 - 1st and 2nd week tied
2006 - 2nd week had the most but....

In January 2006, there were 15 cases with no definitive onset date of symptoms to place them in a certain week.  I can go back and use the WHO epidimeological model to estimate the onset date if you like.  I am going to be fooling around with that stuff next week.

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have. ~ Margaret Mead

[ Parent ]
Thanks FG!
Excellent data. I looked through your raw data and came to the same conclusion as you state. The main and, to me, most important point is that there were a sizable number of cases showing up right from the first week in January in all years. Therefore prep needs to be completed before January 1st for sure. If, as I hypothesize, the govt is holding off telling the public to prep until after Christmas, they may be waiting too long. It's a big chance they are taking for the sake of a little extra holiday spending blip on the economic indicators graph, IMO.

Always have a plan B.
[ Parent ]
put this together with clusters - look for holes in data etc
I'd like to re-do the WHO charts adding the cases taken for the clusters pages.  Just "tag" each case as "confirmed" or "possible" (or even "likely").  Does adding that substantially change the shape of the chart?

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.
if you mix confirmed and suspected and possible cases
you will need a very clear definition of each for the chart to have meaning, especially when trying to compare developments over time.  Even then we may not be able to draw any trends from it.

I would suggest the only group that might be worth adding would be family members of confirmed cases who have died undiagnosed.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

[ Parent ]
someone ill near a confirmed case
that would provide a clear definition

and that's what's used in the "clusters" and "clusters in charts" pages anyway

maybe we could have a wikipage with a table so people can "torture data" - easier than the Excel files at the ftp site?

dunno, just wondering

In the end, we don't have all the data we'd like to have.  But the data we have is enough to insist that we should be "prepping" (in its widest sense) more heavily.

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

[ Parent ]
someone ill is not a clear definition
cos you won't know how to define 'ill'.  Applying different standards to different countries or times will mess up your figures and make them meaningless.

A young person dying of a febrile illness is a lot more significant and easily quantifiable.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

[ Parent ]
Feel free to use the information
in the excel document, Lugon.  I put that together for use by the wiki members. There is a very clear and concise methodology at the tops on the pages that I used.  This was based on the study that is listed and the WHO epidimeology page (WHO website).

There are two excel documents.  One is the listing of the Individual cases. One is the listing for individual cases. Both have the sources listed where the information was obtained from. Both are several pages.  It has not been updated since mid Sept. But I am going to do that.

The WHO does not list all the cases. Some are reported from the studies, and some from Pro-med, etc. But they should be reliable sources.  If you find any more PLEASE let me know so I can update my copies and graphs.

(BTW.... you will find a lot of notes on there... you can ignore them, there were to keep me straight. )  :)

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have. ~ Margaret Mead

[ Parent ]
Dem... Need help again
Seems like the only time I write you is to ask you about a problem I am seeing. (I DO REALLY like you, you know.... )

My issue:
In this diary, aren't the WHO graphs supposed to be posted so that they (the picture) show?  or not?

  Also, I cannot get the link to work......

(Sheepishly) Is it a user problem? (namely me)

Thank you for always being so patient ....

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have. ~ Margaret Mead

no, FG it's not you ;-)
the wpro.who.int website is down



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...
[ Parent ]
Thank you,
I needed a graph from there.. Hopefully it will be up soon...  I will have to rethink what I am working on...


Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have. ~ Margaret Mead
[ Parent ]
WHO has updated their graphs
Now, I just need to finish updating mine.  But, I am grateful to WHO that these were finally brought back online, so I could finish a totally different project.

Never believe that a few caring people can't change the world. For, indeed, that's all who ever have. ~ Margaret Mead
Just curious...
Does anyone know if the data is gathered indicating if any of the H5N1 positive (survived or died) patients received the annual flu shot prior to their illness?  I am just curious if this data is gathered for people testing positive and if there is a significant amount of data to infer anything from that data.

More surf, less web


haven't seen any
and I suspect for most low-income people in underdeveloped countries, they would not be able to afford the vaccine.  It won't be something available for free for sure.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...
[ Parent ]
just found the data
from Preparing for pandemic vaccination: an international policy agenda for vaccine development. Fedson, J Public Health Policy. 2005 Apr;26(1):4-29.

eg 253,000 doses for all of SE Asia, and Indonesia has a population of 220 million.  No, I don't think they have access to the seasonal flu vaccine, realistically.

For Egypt, the no is 1 dose per 1000 population.  (same source)



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...

[ Parent ]
Thank you n/t


More surf, less web


[ Parent ]
Where did the charts go?
My tin foil hat is still in the closet.....

Tell the truth
effectmeasure has them still

BTW. the reveres don't report much about birdflu recently,
is it the same revere as in 2006 ?

see also this thread:

http://www.flutrackers.com/for...


ask experts for their subjective
panflu death expectation values
and report the replies

[ Parent ]
Its the links...
They are not linked to WHO's website.
Its the link that does not work.

Why would WHO remove them?

All the charts that FW links to?

Tell the truth

Linked website not working
The link for the charts went to www.wpro.who.int

That site doesn't seem to be working.

[ Parent ]
It's the website for the WHO Western Pacific region
wpro = Western Pacific Region
Website: http://www.wpro.who.int/health...

The WHO Southeast Asia Region website also seems to be having problems .

The websites for the Africa region, Americas region, Europe region and the Eastern Mediterranean region are working.

[ Parent ]
AlohaOR---the link to WHOSouthEast Asia
Is loaded with Java-Script-Exploiting Trojan viruses (virii?)

Be very careful opening that link!!  ;-)

[ Parent ]
whoa
whats up with that?

Whats going on in SEA that the WHO site for that region is down?

Tell the truth

Tin foil hat on
Supari meets w/ China on BF
major panflu exercise throughout Hawaii
WHO SEA website down

tin foil hat off.

Tell the truth

And hats off to tin foil! :-)

[ Parent ]
Charts and Graphs on H5N1 from WHO | 39 comments
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