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News Reports For February 3

by: MaMa

Sat Feb 03, 2007 at 01:03:02 AM EST


New stories for Today
(Open this Diary to read more on these postings)
  • TURKEY - More on the 4 suspicious deaths in Erzurum
  • Bird flu found on British farm
  • UK- Tests show bird flu is H5N1 virus
  • UK- Official DEFRA announcement
  • Azeri boy did not have bird flu-WHO test
  • Norway- crisis efforts
  • UK - Experts plan down risk to humans
  • England--Outbreak 'could have been caused by wild birds'
  • Danish representatives stays home (from Krasnador, s.Russia)
Summary of News for February 2 2007

USA
    •    CDC report looks at influenza (Link)
    •    Wrenching choices between who lives and who dies (Link)
    •    Flu fright:Link)
    •    U.S. practices for 'the big one': CDC exercise (Link)
    •    Colorado: Emergency Essentials(Link)
    •    Alabama: U.S. experts check into severe child flu cases (seasonal)(Link)
Indonesia
    •    Indonesia: Floods cause havoc in Jakarta (Link)
Nigeria
    •    Nigeria: FG Dispatches Drugs for Bird Flu Treatment in Human - Lagos assures citizens (Link)
    •    Bird flu death alarms some Nigerians, others shrug (Link)
    •    Nigeria tests another 11 human samples for bird flu (Link)
    •    Bird flu death alarms some Nigerians, others shrug (Link)
Saudi Arabia
    •   Website on Bird Flu (Link)
England
    •    Government vets are investigating an outbreak of an illness which has killed 1,000 turkeys on a farm in Suffolk (Link)
    •    300 recruits with flu-like illness (Link)
    •    Bird flu outbreak may prompt cull- turkeys H5 positive (Link)
Thailand
    •    Bird flu strikes again in Thailand (Link)
Japan
    •    Bird Flu Found At Another Japanese Farm (Link)
    •   More on 4th farm with bf in Japan (Link)
Georgia
    •   Georgia (Abkhazia), suspected H5N1, request for information (Link)
General
    •    Expert says bird flu can infect via upper airway (Link)
    •   Bird Flu Control Measures Have `Failed,' Webster Says (Link)
    •    Tamiflu expiring in some Asian countries (Link)
    •    Avian influenza- Persistence in water (Link)

Thailand - Avian Flu Situation as of February 1, 2007 (Link)

 

Since January 1, to Febuary 1, 2007, the Bureau of Epidemiology has received reports of influenza or pneumonia cases in Avian Influenza Surveillance Network from the Provincial Health Offices and Disease Prevention and Control Regional Offices. The investigation and analysis were summarized as follows:

  • Cumulative number of patients under surveillance are 384 cases 44 provinces; Today reports are 32 cases. Thirteen cases from Suphanburi, 4 from Chiangrai, 3 from Lopburi, 2 from Nakhonnayok, and 1 each from Bangkok metropolis, Angthong, Kanchanaburi, Prachinburi, Phitsanulok, Nakhonsawan, Phichit, Nakhonphanom, Khonkaen and Ubonratchathani.
  • Confirmed human case of avian influenza 2006 = 3 cases, with 3 death cases.·  
  • There are 53 cases under investigate reported, of which waiting for laboratory result.

MaMa :: News Reports For February 3
Usual disclaimer about may not have captured everything. Feel free to add your own where omissions have occurred.)

Please note that I copy the links directly from the thread so if they don't work you may need to re-visit the Thread

News Reports For February 2


Total human cases worldwide 270, deaths 164 (2006 - 114 with 79 deaths)
-- From WHO as of 29 Jan - latest update


  [New] Indonesia Summary - Updated as of  01/31/07

   2006    2007
Cases Discussed  Pre-OctOctNov DecTotal Jan
Died, no test results  11 725 124 5
Died, tested positive 1232017 6
Other tested positive  5 0 0 0 5  1
Symptoms, tests pending   90 309 17146 128
Tested negative  511121599  81
Totals 169513833291 221



  Egypt Summary - Updated as of 1/25/07
    2006   2007
Cases Discussed   Pre-Dec Dec Total   Jan
Died, no test results   0 0 0   1
Died, tested positive   7 3 10   1
Recovered tested positive   8 0 8   0
Suspect, tests pending   0 8 8   63
Tested negative   0 12 12   15
Totals   15 23 38   80


INFLUENZA VIRUSES ISOLATED BY
WHO/NREVSS Collaborating Laboratories
2006 - 2007 Season
(Link)
WeekA(H1N1) & A(H1N2)A(H3N2)A(Unk)B#Tested%Pos
  46      20     0      67     28     4092    2.8 
  47      16     1      96     15     3790    3.4 
  48      34     1      99     49     5114    3.6 
  49      52     2      109    41     4674    4.4 
  50      97     7      264    90     5929    7.7 
  51      170    9      278    108    5580    10.1 
  52      151    14     316    92     4752    12.1 
  01      93     4      127    56     4151    6.7 
  02      63     5      149    48     3070    8.6 
  03      44     10      196    30     3229    8.7 

"It is too early in the influenza season to determine which influenza viruses will predominate or how well the vaccine and circulating strains will match."

See last year's table for comparison.

Canada's Week 52 FLU WATCH finds H1N1 predominance.

Thanks to all of the newshounds!

Special thanks to MichelleInOK, AnnieB, and Theresa42 for their excellent work with the Indonesia and Egypt Summary tables - thanks for keeping us all informed!

       link to Current Indonesia Diary
       link to Indonesia Diary Feb.2

       link to Current Indonesia Discussion
       link to Indonesia Discussion Jan.17-Jan.28

       link to Indonesia New Cases List
       link to Indonesia Wiki page

       link to Lookout Post main page

       link to current Egypt Diary
       link to New  Cases in Egypt III

       link to Graphs of Clusters 2003 - 2006


       link to Charts and Graphs on H5N1 from WHO

       link to the Wiki Main Page
       link to the  Wiki Index

Tags: , , (All Tags)
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TURKEY - More on the 4 suspicious deaths in Erzurum
The 4 deaths were (I think):
Jan 15 - Murat Özer (1?)
Jan 24 - Gamze Y?ld?z
Jan 26 - Ziya Y?ld?z
Jan 30 - Mihriban (Merivan?) Y?ld?z (3?)

Partial "machine"-translated from Turkish (http://www.turkishdi...):

It's as if [they] never existed
Jan 1, 2007

ERZURUM Tekman district village of Karl?ca Köyü'nde 15 day within age amlar?n? yitiren 4 children persons kay?tlar?na rastlanmad?.  High fever and sickness like symptom later/then ölen 3 aged Merivan Y?ld?z except for, the other 3 children only one square photograph also found/present.  Tekman provincial official Tolga To?an, ya?anan death late news giver family(?) negligence found thus provincial official To?an, "Bize at the right time news verilseydi, perhaps also this death ya?anmayacakt?'' said.  Karl?ca Köyü'nde ya?anan child death region bird flu korkusu ya?at?rken, provincial official Tolga To?an, village road(?) shut/secret happened for death ya?and??? claim real/true fared ill thusly.  The district situated 49 kilometre distance Karl?ca Köyü yolunun 28 January Pazar günü ya?an stomach after Pazartesi morning kapand???n? belirten provincial official To?an, first death 15 January 1 aged Murat Özer with to begin recall.

Ay?n 30'una as much as persons from the same village Kaymakaml??a ya also crisis central consultation enroll Kaymakam To?an, those thusly:

"Bize last Tuesday günü time 16.50 in respect of Karl?ca Köyü'nde death and yolun shut/secret happened announcement.  Of this over/about duty makinalar?m?z and health team right now way/purpose data and village ula?t?klar?nda circumstance serious that happened 10 çocu?u ambulance and mini-buses Erzurum send.  First(?) death ay?n 15'inde year old Murat Özer with/as a result of ba?lam??.  Gamze Y?ld?z ay?n 24'ünde, Ziya Y?ld?z 26's?nda Mihriban Y?ld?z ise ay?n 30'unda die etmi?.  Bize yolun shut/secret happened about information even given.  Last two weeks within life lose 4 children also persons kaydettirilmedi?ini [registered?] fixation ettik.  Family children 3-5 age coming/arriving persons register ettirmiyor.  Ölen yavrular?m?z?n single/one square photograph also not existing."

TORUNU KUCA?INDA ÖLDÜ

Last Tuesday günü grandfather(?) ?smail Y?ld?z taraf?ndan hospital taken to en route vital/life lose 3 year old Merivan Y?ld?z'?n (paternal) uncle by mobile telephone refluent photograph if village personally stranger dola??yor.  Village road shut/secret happened for torununu s?rt?na alarak hastaneye götürmek istedi?ini anlatan ?smail Y?ld?z, "Her gün karlarla üzerini örttü?ümüz mezar?n? ziyaret ediyorum. Torunuma doyamad?m. Merivan'? hastaneye götürmek için yaya yola ç?kt?m. Köyden 4 kilometre ayr?lm??t?m. Merivan'?n sesi birden kesildi. sard???m battaniyeyi aralad???mda y?k?ld?m. Merivan, kuca??mda ölmü?tü. O an? hiç unatam?yorum'' diye konu?tu.

HEALTH DIRECTOR: BIRD FLU NOT PRESENT

Köyde meydana gelen ölümlerin duyulmas?ndan sonra Karl?ca'ya Erzurum'dan sa?l?k ekipleri gönderdiklerini ve köyde tarama yapt?rd?klar?n? anlatan Sa?l?k Müdürü Ali Da?tan ise Atatürk Üniversitesi T?p Fakültesi Aziziye Ara?t?rma Hastanesi'nde tedavi alt?nda bulundurulan 10 çocucu?un sa?l?k durumlar?n?n iyi oldu?unu bildirdi. Ku? gribi iddilar?n?n kesin bir dille yalanlayan Sa?l?k ?l Müdürü Ali Da?tan, çocuklar?n kontrol amac?yla hastanede tutuldu?unu söyledi.

Atatürk Üniversitesi T?p Fakültesi Aziziye Ara?t?rma Hastanesi Enfeksiyon Hastal?klar? Anabilim Dal?'nda tedavileri süren Mehmet Y?ld?z (3 ayl?k), Taner Y?ld?z (4 ayl?k), Emine Özer (7 ayl?k), Diyar Duran (8 ayl?k), Yusuf Pelet (8 ayl?k), Destan Kaya (1.5), Muhammet Özer (2), Ay?e Özer (2), Hatice Özer (2), ?emdin Kaya'da (3) önemli bir sa?l?k sorunu olmad??? belirlendi.

GRAVE TO BE OPENED(?)

Öte yandan Karl?ca Köyü'nde hayatlar?n? kaybeden ve yak?nlar? taraf?ndan köy mezarl???na defnedilen çocuklara otopsi yap?lmas? için mezarlar?n aç?labilece?i bildirildi.  Bu konudaki çal??malar?n sürdürüldü?ü belirtilirken, Atatürk Üniversitesi T?p Fakültesi Aziziye Ara?t?rma Hastanesi Enfeksiyon Hastal?klar? Anabilim Dal? Servisi'nde yatan çocuklardan da kan örnekleri al?narak, Ankara'ya gönderildi.

http://www.kenthaber...

Proud FAF-er.


Bird flu found on British farm
By Bonnie Malkin and agencies
Last Updated: 8:51am GMT 03/02/2007

Government vets are investigating an outbreak of bird flu at a poultry farm after hundreds of turkeys died.

Experts were called to the farm near Lowestoft, Suffolk, late on Thursday following the outbreak of an "unexplained" illness. 

Around 1,000 turkeys are thought to have died.

The Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) said preliminary tests had confirmed a bird flu outbreak.... Defra said experts had confirmed that latest the outbreak was an H5 version

The spokesman said analysts would have more detail about the strain later.

Article here.


Turkey farm in England.
The media have just announced over 2000 birds are dead and the outbreak was  Bernard Matthew's who is the most well known name for a turkey producer in the U.K.

If he had not been so well known I have a feeling we would not have heard about this so quickly.

Test results have still to come back for the birds and also for the army recruits who have "gastric flu?"

Statements are still being made that a flu pandemic could be "several years away".

I feel so reassured!!!!!


It's a bit ghoulish
but now's the time to try and raise some UK awareness.

[ Parent ]
Dunno
I was wondering about that, but I think it may actually be a bad time to do it, because H5N1 in birds here is really irrelevant to the real issue, i.e. pandemic, and it's just cause for confusion. If we try to get people worried now, they'll just repeat the "it's a disease of birds and they have good biosecurity down there" stuff.

Mind you, it was Hugh Pennington saying there was no risk to humans that turned my blood to ice. When you hear that, you know there's trouble ahead :-)

No news from Nigeria, that's what worries me right now...


[ Parent ]
I agree, an outbreak in birds is insignificant
but it will get people interested which has been the problem so far.

[ Parent ]
Not that I don't feel very sorry for the poultry sector
This will be devastating

[ Parent ]
It is getting MSM attention.
Even though an outbreak will never be good news, at least some value may be gained from this outbreak in 'a country like ours' that seems to be the threshold for both media and public attention. 

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
H5N1 in England
H5N1 in birds anywhere in the world is a concern, even in developed nations. Did any turkey 'byproducts' get shipped ie manure, feathers, eggs? These can carry h5n1.

This is human flu season, and this is a new country with confirmed h5n1 disease. It's spreading like wildfire this winter......

It is better to look ahead and prepare than to look back and regret.


[ Parent ]
Lots of experts commenting
Prof John Oxford
Deputy chief vet Fred Landeg
Prof Albert Osterhaus

Only one of the turkey houses infected so far, though all will be slaughtered.

debating where virus came from gien the biosecurity on the farm (and a lack of wild bird outbreaks). Which strain is it?

Considering what information can be gained from the situation on how the virus works.

Woman on sky confirming The farm had 'aviation flu'???

Lots of pictures of the farm, including dead turkeys being tipped from a skip into a huge lorry. Off for incineration.

All bird shows cancelled.


[ Parent ]
PPE?
Are workers at the farm using adequate PPE, anyone know?

[ Parent ]
Raising U.K. awareness
I am hoping there might be some announcements or reports this weekend on the planned exercises on 29th and 20th of this month to assess how prepared we are for an emergency of any sort.

Have just spent ages trying to find the recipe on here for home made oral rehydration solution. Cannot find it.

Lesson learnt - always copy info you need at the time that you find it!!!

Going to get eye drops from chemist and some anti diarrhoea tablets so they are on hand if we really need them. Already started to get in some food and bottled water.


Dr. Grattan Woodson's formula for oral rehydration solution:
Here is Dr. Woodson's formula as found in old FW:
4 cups water, 3 Tablespoons sugar, 1 teaspoon salt.

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
Oral Rehydration Solution
Another version, this one from the Red Cross:
1 quart water
1? 2 tsp. baking soda
1? 2 tsp. table salt 
3 to 4 tbsp. sugar 
1? 4 tsp. salt substitute

Mix well
(optional) Flavor with lemon juice or sugar-free Kool-Aid


[ Parent ]
Oral Rehydration Solution...
Jane - I actually use his formula after surfing to rehydrate.  Sitting a few hours in the sun wearing a black wetsuit tends to leave me dehydrated.  The only change I make is to add the juice from a lemon or two and bump up the sugar accordingly.  I grow lemons so I always have a lemon or two around.  I like this much better than any sports drink.

More surf, less web



[ Parent ]
ORS that my kids like
Here's one that I got off of a boy scout site and my kids really like it.  It allows for different flavors because it uses unsweetened Kool-Aide packets.

Home Brew Power Drink

1 Qt Water H2O(clean, not ditch)
1/2-1 Teaspoon NaCL (table salt)
1/2 Teaspoon Sodium Bicarbonate (Baking soda)
1/4 Teaspoon Potassium Chloride KCL (salt substitute)
6-8 Teaspoons Glucose (table sugar) or 1-2 Tablespoons Honey
1/2 package of "Cool-Aide" flavoring

Mix and Use. Don't make more than you'll use. There are no preservatives in this "juice". DO NOT over use... High Potassium levels are dangerous.... stops the old ticker.
NOTE: Keep fluid at ~2-2.5% Glucose. This is 1/8 the amount of sugar and 1/2 the water for regular Cool-Aide.

Never doubt that a small group of thoughtful, committed citizens can change the world, indeed it is the only thing that ever has. -- Margaret Mead


[ Parent ]
Pedialyte
I have some pedialyte that I bought last year that is due to expire April 2007.  Anyone know if it still can be used after that date?

TIA


[ Parent ]
Official DEFRA announcement
http://www.defra.gov...

NEWS RELEASE 

Nobel House, 17 Smith Square, London SW1P 3JR
Out of hours telephone 020 7270 8960 Ref: 34/07
Date: 3 February 2007

H5N1 avian influenza confirmed in poultry

Tests from the Veterinary Laboratories Agency (VLA) have confirmed that the sample from the poultry found dead on a farm near Lowestoft in Suffolk did contain the H5N1 avian flu virus. Further tests are underway to determine whether the strain of the virus is similar to that found in Asia. Results are expected later today.
The State Veterinary Service are enforcing a Protection Zone of three kilometres radius and a Surveillance Zone of 10 kilometres around the premises where movement restrictions will be imposed and poultry must be isolated from wild birds. The farm itself has been under restrictions since Thursday evening. In addition the national general licence on bird gatherings has been revoked, and bird shows and pigeon racing will no longer be permitted.

An urgent veterinary risk assessment is being carried out in consultation with ornithological experts to consider the specific circumstances of this case and determine the level of risk, if any, it may pose to poultry and other kept birds. On the basis of this risk assessment further wider restrictions will be imposed in the area.

Fred Landeg, the Deputy Chief Veterinary Officer said:

"I urge keepers of birds to be vigilant, to take care if handling birds which appear to be unwell and to observe high levels of biosecurity. Owners that suspect disease, should act quickly consult their vet. Avian influenza is a notifiable disease and must be reported to the local Divisional Veterinary Manager in the State Veterinary Service"

There is no reason for public health concern. Avian Influenza is a disease of birds and whilst it can pass very rarely and with difficulty, to humans this requires extremely close contact with infected birds, particularly faeces.

The Health Protection Agency has advised that, despite this incident, the current level of risk to humans from H5N1 remains extremely low.

"Any possibility of exposure is taken very seriously and the Health Protection Agency has worked closely with Defra and local NHS to ensure that all the necessary actions are being taken to protect those people on the farm who may have been exposed to the virus."

The European Commission has been informed of this development.

Notes to editors
1. Avian Influenza is a disease of birds and whilst it can pass very rarely and with difficulty to humans, this requires extremely close contact with infected birds, particularly faeces. As a precautionary measure those who might have been exposed would be offered the appropriate treatment and protection in line with established protocols. Advice from the Food Standards Agency remains that properly cooked poultry and poultry products, including eggs, are safe to eat.

2. All avian influenzas (H1 to H16) can be low pathogenic but only H5 and H7 are known to become highly pathogenic.

3. The details on the measures that apply in Protection and Surveillance Zones can be found on the Defra website at www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/diseases/notifiable/ai/index.htm

4. Targeted surveillance for high pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza and other avian influenza viruses in wild birds is in place throughout the UK and is ongoing. If you find dead wild gulls, waders, ducks, geese or swans and you are within a survey area or are unsure whether you are in a surveillance area you may wish to contact the Defra Helpline (08459 33 55 77) and choose the Avian Influenza option or visit the Defra website:
www.defra.gov.uk/animalh/diseases/notifiable/disease/ai/wildbirds/surveymap.htm

For further information, please visit the avian influenza pages on the Defra website: http://www.defra.gov...

 


The European Commission let the H5N1 cat
out of the bag. Defra aren't answering the phones (according to Sky News).

[ Parent ]
could have left a message ? The FAO report
(that should have been titled H5N1 and mammals; not "and cats", since it covers a lot) from March 2006, might need another look, and the public can sure read the information for vets: http://www.fao.org/A...

[ Parent ]
DEFRA: mention M-a-m-m-a-l-s next time, please. n/t


[ Parent ]
"reason for concern"
"There is no reason for public health concern."

I'd rather phrase it as "this outbreak in poultry is no reason for public health concern".

Just don't make the statement too general! ;)

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.


[ Parent ]
but there will be the day panflu breaks out but
for that, the public should have started making supply and local plan preparations last year; these things take time, and that is gone once pandemic starts; only time left to react.

[ Parent ]
Azeri boy did not have bird flu-WHO test
http://www.alertnet....

  BAKU, Feb 3 (Reuters) - A blood sample taken from a boy who died in Azerbaijan last month confirmed bird flu was not the cause of his death, Azeri health officials said on Saturday.

The 14-year-old died in the Azeri capital Baku on Jan. 28. His cousin died from bird flu during an outbreak last year.

cont.


I'm still not convinced given all the inconsistencies in this story
since it started.  It was his sister, his swin sister, his cousin.....

It was positive, negeative, positive, now "definitely negative"...

How rare is it for a 14yo to die from pneumonia? Granted there could have been underlying health issues we don't know about but it's mighty strange...


[ Parent ]
It's not so strange
It would be natural to panic given what happened to the family members. Even the local doctors would be afraid it was happening again.

The tests have now been done by the WHO so they should be accurate. I would be mad to try and cover this up.

And finally it would have been statistically amazing that a second outbreak should occur in the same family after a year.


[ Parent ]
Sounds like I'm covering something up ;-)
"I would be mad to try and cover this up." but I assure you there should have been a "t" in that statement - "It would be mad".

[ Parent ]
I think it is very rare
But it happens.  I think during flu season there will be occasional cases where for one reason or another, a patient for whom all expectations point to a speedy recovery completely goes the other way.  I would bet there was some underlying condition that was never previously diagnosed.  I'd obviously be more leary if some number of such cases occurred.  But one or two out of 1000 flu cases (just making an educated guess of a number based on U.S. case rates, and knowing there's a huge amount of underreporting of course), I don't think it would invalidate statistical expectations.

Meteorologist in Florida!?!  Now we're talkin'!!!

[ Parent ]
Norway with crisis efforts
Free ranging outside poultry are banned (exept the upper nothern part), Import is banned, competitions and other transport of birds banned.

Press release from food and health dep:
http://mattilsynet.n...

News update on english probably to come at this link:
http://www.aftenpost...


Norway's isolation room
Impressive, but the article said without money in the budget, even in an emergency it wouldn't be operational for weeks.  Did this article scare up some money for it?

http://www.aftenpost...

(I didn't see anything about bird flu here though.)

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
Bird flu in England
Just heard on the radio that 160,000 birds are about to be culled and that there will be an exclusion zone of several miles around the farm but "the birds affected were too young to have entered the food chain!"

Somehow I do not think that that is really the point!


may not be the point, but kind of interesting....
Were all the turkeys that died very young birds? Does this mean that H5N1 has a similar propensity in birds as in humans to overstimulate the immune system of the young and healthy? Or do older birds have some sort of developed immune or physical structural resistance, either to becoming infected at all or to allowing viral replication? As a matter of fact, were the older birds sick at all? Just musing and looking for clues that might relate to humans.

For example, were we to do a summary of all confirmed positive cases, both those who survived and those who succumbed, and we found that the highest incidence of "infection" occured in the youth and young adult age group, wouldn't that point to an enhanced ability of the virus to infect and take hold in that age group, rather than an overblown immune response?  The cytokine storm hypothesis only relates to a greater kill ratio among younger victims already infected, not in a skewing of infectivity rates among age groups overall, doesn't it?

In other words, if the difference in cfr among age groups is due to cytokine storm, one would expect that equal numbers from all age groups would be infected, but the highest death rate would be among the young and healthy.
If the difference is due to a higher number of infections among the young and healthy and less people in other age groups even catching the disease, you have something else going on. IMO.

Always have a plan B.


[ Parent ]
demographics
The CFR for young people is high because it is disproportionately children and adolescents who care for back yard flocks and are most likely to come into contact with diseased birds.

Be kind, for everyone you meet is engaged in a great struggle.--Philo of Alexandria

[ Parent ]
That's one possibility
But the age of the poultry vendors in street markets is not young children and adolescents, and they are exposed a great deal. As are the housewives. As I recall alot of our cases have been people in their twenties and thirties. I think, rather than relying on memory or supposition, we really need to do a study on this: it could provide important clues.

Always have a plan B.

[ Parent ]
funny timing, crofsblog has a great commentary on this very thing today
regarding the age distribution.

Here's a quote:

Subject to multiple selection biases in the identification and reporting of WHO-confirmed human cases of avian influenza A (H5N1), our analysis yields 3 noteworthy observations:

1) case counts and case rates suggest similar levels of disease activity in the age categories 0-9, 10-19, and 20-29 years;

2) few cases have occurred above the age band of 30-35 years; and

3) the skewed distribution of cases toward children and young adults transcends sex, reporting period, patient outcome, geographic location, and, by implication, local cultural and demographic determinants.

It goes on to make some hypotheses about why the skewing, mostly about some kind of immunity conferred by the 1958 pandemic.

Always have a plan B.


[ Parent ]
or that it's kids in contact with the poultry
Prior to 2003, poultry workers in Hong Kong were seropositive to H5 in measurable amounts (<10%) in a handful of studies. Whatever's been published since doesn't show that (hard to find asymptomatic infection), but those pre-2003 adults weren't protected.

[ Parent ]
my short 2C ;-)
The skewed distribution is real, immunity from 1958 is not.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
So in a given population exposed to H5N1, all things being equal, the under 35 age group "catch it" at a significantly higher rate than over 35, for whatever reason? n/t


Always have a plan B.

[ Parent ]
yep
Infection is never just a matter of exposure.  Host susceptibility plays a vital role, except that there has been few studies as to how and why.

Just because more science is published on receptor binding or mutations, doesn't mean that the answer lies always in the virus. 



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
I don't agree
I have watched this and thought about it many times.  There is a lot of circumstantial evidence to suggest the age distribution is real and biological, and not due to any sociological or behavioral differences in exposure.

Read my response in EM in December http://scienceblogs....



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
In turkeys, it may be more of a poultry-business-practices thing.
They may acquire batches of young birds at set intervals so they have birds mature enough to take to market at all times, with birds of different ages in the pipeline.  So all the young ones may have had different conditions, ie, origin, shipment, housing, feed?

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
that's exactly what I think
how the farm got infected.  From the parent farm that supplied either stock young chicks, fertilized eggs, or even feed.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Rice in feed
I'd be inclined to see if there were any rice products (from Hungary?) in the feed.  Alternatively, I would check the rodent population on the farm and at the feed mill.

[ Parent ]
Flu trackers has some commentary on this that says different.
I'll go back over there and try to find the exact quote, but it was that the birds were not imported, they were all raised (I believe from eggs) in their isolated shed. There are also pictures of the turkey sheds, and it seems from looking at them that it would be very difficult for any stray migratory bird, even a small one, to fly into the structure. It looks tightly enclosed (although that could just be due to the angle the picture was taken from.) But if it's true the birds were all raised from eggs in that enclosed shed, how the .... did they get infected?  Flies???

Always have a plan B.

[ Parent ]
here's the little quote from flutrackers on this, plus link...
Originally Posted by niman 
Bart Dalla Mura, Bernard Matthews commercial director, has said the birds had not been imported and were raised in a shed.

Story from BBC NEWS:
http://news.bbc.co.u...

Always have a plan B.


[ Parent ]
But the eggs came from elsewhere
From an article Mingus posted at Flutrackers:

"...Dr Landeg said tests were continuing to discover if the strain is the Asian version of H5N1 and where it had originated.

Speaking at a Defra press briefing in London, Dr Landeg said only one of the 22 turkey houses on the farm in Holton appeared to have been affected, but all birds were being culled.

The animals had come from a hatchery in the UK, none had been moved off the farm and early indications were that this was a "recent introduction of disease"..."
http://www.flutracke...

[I hope the bolding turns out ok. It's my first try.]


[ Parent ]
Young turkeys
My understanding is that the turkeys or chickens in one barn would all be the same age. They are raised to market size, then the whole group is killed and the barn reused with a new batch of the same age chicks. This e-book explains more than you will want to know and blame this type of farming on the rise of High-path bird flu. Interesting reading

http://birdflubook.c...


[ Parent ]
Wonder where the EGGS came from that they hatched from? n/t


[ Parent ]
That's explained in the above link
Most chickein comes one or two chick producer worldwide for the very large scale farmers. This results in very little genetic differences and may contribite to the development of diseases. I assume large scale turkey farming is very similar

[ Parent ]
I think if the turkeys were infected in the eggs
they would have been killed in the egg. They use eggs to grow the virus.  Also, these were referred to as young birds, as I understand it, and not chicks. Since this virus has a relatively short incubation period and kills quickly, I don't think it is likely that the outsides of the eggs were contaminated and the chicks picked up the virus as they hatched out of the eggs, because they would have sickened and died while still very young chicks. So there seemingly had to be an outside source that brought the virus to them inside that closed shed.

Always have a plan B.

[ Parent ]
UK - Experts plan down risk to humans
Experts play down risk to humans [UK]

Last Updated: Saturday, 3 February 2007, 13:34 GMT 
http://news.bbc.co.u...

Experts have stressed the outbreak of bird flu at a farm in Suffolk poses no immediate risk to human health. The outbreak has been confirmed as the H5N1 strain of the virus which has infected 270 people, and killed 164 - most in south east Asia - since 2003. However, the virus cannot pass from human to human at present. So far, all those who have been infected have been poultry workers who have come into intimate contact with infected birds.

There is no immediate public health risk
Dr Colin Butter
Institute of Animal Health

[snip]

However, at present H5N1 remains overwhelmingly a disease of birds, and not humans. So at present the threat to human health from the outbreak in Suffolk is minimal - particularly as it appears to have been rapidly contained.

[snip]

Dr Colin Butter, a bird flu expert at the Institute of Animal Health, said: "This outbreak is no risk to the general public and will be controlled by culling.  It is exceedingly unlikely that any human is going to get sick as a result of H5N1 in one turkey farm in Britain at this time

Dr David Nabarro
United Nations 

"The risk to public health is from a human pandemic which is not likely to originate in Europe. "A pandemic of this type, if it does happen, is likely to occur in an area where people live side by side with birds, like in East Asia. "So there is no immediate public health risk, but this is clearly something we need to get under control."

[snip]


it is too depressingly predictable Argh!!! n/t




All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
I think the outbreak in UK is good news..
I dont fear the virus getting out of controll i N Europe, what I fear is that stays a "poor countries, far away problem"

With this outbreak, the media is starting their background information again. the web forums are discussing, and theres a chance to get the real message out, the meassge about Human treath, not lifestock.


Never good news.
Another couple hundred thousand opportunities for H5N1 to crack the code - never good news. 

The 500 employees out of work - for who knows how long - never good news.

I might lose some weight when I am sick as a dog and down in bed with the latest seasonal bug, but it does not make it good news - just a silver lining in an otherwise dark, dark cloud. 

ITW(Joel J)
Courage is resistance to fear, mastery of fear - not absence of fear.
- Mark Twain
 


[ Parent ]
England--Outbreak 'could have been caused by wild birds'
Last updated at 15:03pm on 3rd February 2007

The latest outbreak of avian flu could have been caused by wild birds, according to experts. Just last month the deputy chief veterinary officer warned that a cold snap could increase the risk of bird flu coming to the UK.

Now an outbreak of the H5N1 strain of the virus has been confirmed at a poultry farm in Suffolk. Fred Landeg warned that very cold weather could force wild birds to head west, upping the risk of infecting domestic birds.

A cold spell in eastern Europe means lakes and even the sea can freeze, prompting wild birds to go in search of open water.

Mr Landeg said the highest risk of bird flu coming to the UK was in the autumn or spring, followed by a late winter cold snap.

Andre Farrar, from the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds, said the outbreak was "less likely" to have been caused by wildfowl this year, but it could not be ruled out.

"We are not in the middle of what is considered to be a major migrating period now. The autumn migration has been over for weeks.

Continued.....
http://www.dailymail...

Life is not measured by the number of breaths we take, but by the moments that take our breath away. --Unknown

     


Danish representatives stays home.
A planned market offencive for danish food industry in Southern Russia, Krasnodar region is cancelled due to:" There must never be any doubt abouth the representatives safety"

Its the danish food minestery who is behind, and the word "safty" puzzels me... I know that for anyone working with livestock its recomended to not be in areas with H5N1, due to risk of bringing home infection, but safety?

In danish:
http://www.jp.dk/udl...


When speaking of over reaction
Acording to danish news the Norwegian action is "panic".  Danmark is awaiting EU recomandations, after a EU meeting in one weeks time(!), and is not planning to act as Norway. But a recomandation for population to report large cases of deaths in wildbirds is given.

In danish:
http://politiken.dk/...

Norway is not a EU member, Denmark is.


Norwegian action?
urdar, please refresh my memory, what action did Norway take that upsets the Danes?

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
the norwegian actions are
banning of outdoor poultry in south part of the contry. Getting in touch with every hobby breeders to advice on hygiene and efforts to prevent any contackt with free birds.

banning of import of live poultry and birds, and any other activites that uses live birds across the border like open markeds, exhibitions, festivals, magicians etc..

All this is the same actions that was lifted after last years H5N1 incident in the baltic sea.


[ Parent ]
Thanks, urdar. How are the people reacting to the rules? n/t


"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
reaction is buisnis as usal, and farmers are worried.
The migratory gesees from england is expected back in end of february..

The message is; only close contact with birds is a risk, and common sence should be aplied.

We are betther prepard now than last time (as a vetrinary issue). We have the culling machines, and bether hygiene is on place

As now It dont seem to be a bether definition on the issue. Its still regarded as a farmers problem. And very little story abut pandemic prepardnes.

More interesting is that the annual flu is rampaging here now. Its named "Wisconsin" the strain was in the vacine, and half the elders poulation is vacineated. Wisconsin is the main flu in europethis year, sorry I dont know the codename.

Some schoolclases and workplaces have uptil 80% sick. And the media is warning about especial hard virus. The infection wave will last uptil 8 weeks from now.

Also a small note on the tamiflu stockpile for a pandemic that "that is going to happen, soner or later"..

The new islolation ward is a result of problems with resistant "flesheating" germs, and tuberkolosis some years ago, Its typical hight tech investment, with no money to pay the people to run it.. I dont now how many beds they have, it will not change much anyway. They will use weeks to open, and after that is to late anyway for a pandemic strain. No sign of extra money, yet..

Media is full of global warming treath, I rely dont think there is space for more than one "end of the world" fokus..  At least global warming is now taken seriously, all polical parties is having a bidding (pissing) contest for beeing the ones who will save us..  Pathetic! Scientist are clear, the cuts have to be bigger than 50-60%, 20% will not take us anywhere.. :-(

But I do expect the story of the magican popping up agian.. The man cant bring his magic pigeons on tour, and when the media asked him "could you not just get them across the border with some simsalbim magic, he answerd, yes, but that would be illegal" ;-)


[ Parent ]
Is it time
to start a United Kingdom diary?  We have one for Egypt and Indonesia. I know I can do it but I'm not very good at it (adding links, fonts, etc.)

 


diary to comment on H5N1 in birds in UK
http://newfluwiki2.c...

You arm yourself to the teeth just in case.  You don't leave the gun near the baby's hand.

[ Parent ]
Nothing to worry about
I'm sure the first turkey was washed ashore after floating across the English Channel.  No wait, that story has already been used...

UK: Bernard Matthews took 48 hours to report turkey deaths
[snip]Villagers in the picturesque village of Holton watched as the site was taped off by police who closed roads and enforced a three kilometre protection zone and a 10 kilometre surveillance zone to keep poultry away from any wild birds.

And one, Lillian Foreman, 43, voiced the fears of many of them by saying: "If turkeys started dying on the Tuesday why weren't the authorities notified then? They should have been notified sooner. I am worried for people who work at the factory. What will happen to them?"[snip]

[snip]The farm and adjacent factory employs around 1,000 people, mainly migrant workers - many of them Portuguese - who are bussed to work from the nearby towns of Beccles, Lowestoft and Great Yarmouth. Yesterday around two dozen of them - those who worked in the shed where the flock was infected - were being inoculated at a nearby surgery.[snip]

http://www.dailymail...

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


Bird flu virus found at British farm is Asian strain
  LONDON, Feb. 3 (Xinhua) -- British government experts confirmed on Saturday that the H5N1 bird flu virus outbreak at a Suffolk turkey farm was the Asian strain.

It's "highly pathogenic" and is similar to the one found in Hungary in January.

http://news.xinhuane...

Which Asian strain is that?

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
UK: Turkey producer has subsidiaries in Hungary, Germany and NZ
[snip]The virus was detected at a factory farm run by Europe's biggest turkey producer, Bernard Matthews, which also has subsidiaries in Germany, Hungary and New Zealand.[snip]

[snip]Virologist John Oxford told the BBC that a small bird probably had come in through a ventilation shaft, infecting the turkeys.[snip]

[snip]Pigeon racing, bird shows and markets have now been banned while workers at the farm and those involved in the cull have been given anti-viral drugs.[snip]

http://www.japantoda...

What kind of small birds have been found with H5N1?  Sick bird?  Fomites?  Is he grasping for an explanation (spin) or is it a reasonable possibility?

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


[ Parent ]
a little bird told me
Virologist John Oxford told the BBC that a small bird probably had come in through a ventilation shaft, infecting the turkeys.

that there is no river in you-know-where.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Ventilation shafts and Rodents
What does come in through ventilation shafts in chicken houses are Rodents. The Farmers fight them all the time. That's one of the reasons they have Cats in and around the houses. They (rodents) eat from the grain under the bins. They get Mites from the chickens. Blood sucking Mites. We know about the Blow Flies, has anyone checked the mites? Most if not all of the poultry houses have them, even in the US. The rodents stay after the chicken house is emptied along with their hitchhikers. It's a big circle.

Think back remember the culling in South Korea?
They specifically said to kill all the rodents along with the cats, dogs, chickens.
Now remember the experiments on the mice....

Snip
To evaluate the potential pathogenicity to mammals of the recent H5N1 avian Influenza A virus, viruses recovered from dead mice infected with A/chicken/Yamaguchi/7/2004 isolated in Japan were examined. All recovered viruses from the brains of dead mice infected with this strain (without any prior adaptation to mice) had substituted the amino acid at position 627 of the PB2 protein from glutamic acid to lysine. Their mouse lethality had increased by approximately 5x104 times over that of the original virus. Histopathological analysis reinforced the finding that these variants caused more rapid and severe damage to mice than the original virus. This revealed that it might be useful to characterize the recovered virus to assess its potential pathogenicity to mammals.
http://vir.sgmjourna... 
Now we have a rodent with 5x104 times over that of the original virus. The mites are still crawling and drinking a new and improved Virus. Going from chicken to Rodent and back. 
My thoughts are...TPTB know this and they know there is no way to kill all the rodents, they are everywhere. It's too big.

[ Parent ]
Not rodents
Influenza A does not cause disease normally in mice.  In the laboratory, the virus has to be specially adapted in order for infection to occur.

That's why mice models are not good models to study human flu.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
I hate to say this but...
...weasels could probably come in through ventilation holes.

We know for a fact that domestic ferrets (which are used in lab experiments) and stone martens can be infected with H5N1. It wouldn't suprise me if the European Polecat, another mustelid, could be infected as well as any other small weasels. Ferrets can get into any place where their head will fit. Depending upon the ventilation hole or another opportunity to get into the "hen" house, mustelids could have caused the outbreak.


[ Parent ]
still the most likely
is the most likely, and ferrets through ventilation holes ain't it, IMHO.  ;-)



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
I went and checked again,
the various species that influenza A can naturally infect and form stable lineages include humans, pigs, horses, sea mammals and birds.  Various other researchers (Webster, Taubenberger, Kawaoka) also quote the same range, with 1 incidence of host switching from horse to dog.  We know that H5N1 can infect cats, tigers, some small mammals such as civet cat and stone marten. 

In fact, I'm just now reviewing this new NIAID videocast from Jan 17th Fauci and Taubenberger on Demystifying Medicine - Emerging and Re-emerging Infectious Diseases: Challenge to Global Health and Taubenberger's remarks on rodents is "can be experimentally infected and very occasionally naturally infected"

So, overall, I would say the chance of finding natural infection of rodents is not impossible, but very low indeed.

btw, this video has a very good segment on host switching.  This appears to be the encapsulation of JKT's latest thinking on the issue, and sheds more light (or makes it more confusing, depending on how you look at it) on the possibility of a pandemic.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Are you sure about the mice
I don't have the link, but I have a copy of the original story from July 18, 2005.  They usesd mice and the Viet Nam strain at the time.  100% fatal to the mice that received no tamiflu.  I'm posting the whole article as I could not find a link for it.

Roche's Tamiflu suppresses Vietnam avian flu-study

Mon Jul 18, 4:47 PM ET

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Roche's influenza drug Tamiflu suppresses the often deadly avian flu strain
seen in Vietnam, which experts fear will soon cause a human pandemic, U.S. researchers said on
Monday.

They said tests in mice showed the drug, licensed for use against influenza in general, could
suppress the newest strain of H5N1 virus that is sweeping though flocks of poultry in Vietnam,
Cambodia, China and elsewhere in Asia.

Public health experts say the avian flu virus is mutating and fear it could develop the ability to
spread easily from person to person and kill millions in a flu pandemic.

The H5N1 strain has killed more than 50 people in Asia since 2003. More than 140 million chickens
have been killed in the region in a bid to halt the disease.

"We need to know whether antiviral drugs can prevent and treat avian flu, because in the early
stages of a global outbreak, most people would be unvaccinated," said Dr. Anthony Fauci, head of
the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, which funded the study.

"If a pandemic occurs, it will take months to manufacture and distribute a vaccine to all who need
it."

The team at St. Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, tested 80 mice with the
drug, known generically as oseltamivir.

None of the mice that got a placebo and then were infected with the Vietnam strain of H5N1
survived. Five of 10 mice given the highest daily dose of oseltamivir for five days survived.

But writing in the "Journal of Infectious Diseases," the researchers said eight of 10 mice given
the drug for eight days lived.

This will help experts decide how much drug to use and how long to treat people should the virus
begin to spread among humans.

The researchers found the new Vietnam strain is much more virulent than a 1997 variant of H5N1
that killed six people in Hong Kong.

"The H5N1 avian flu viruses are in a process of rapid evolution. We were surprised at the tenacity
of this new variant," said St. Jude researcher Elena Govorkova.

"Our results provide baseline information that will be needed for further studies on preventing
and treating avian flu with antiviral drugs."

Governments are buying and stockpiling doses of Tamiflu to use in case of an avian flu pandemic,
but experts say they will need many more than the few million doses now on hand.

 

To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.


[ Parent ]
Sorry about the formatting. n/t


To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

[ Parent ]
mice, yes
Lots of studies use mice, but they always have to use an adaptation process.  I have read it somewhere but the one reference that I have right now is from Taubenberger's videocast Influenza : past pandemics and future threats in the Q & A section near the end. 

In fact, that's a great video if you haven't seen it.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
Thanks for the link, Great Lecture. n/t


To calm the wife buy cases of chocolate, to calm the husband buy cases of booze, and to calm the children...... heck the booze and chocolate should work.

[ Parent ]
also
while other hosts are possibilities in countries with large and repeated outbreaks, the most likely source would still be the commonest cause of outbreaks, either migratory bird, or commercial activities.

Most likely scenarios often turn up to be, well, most likely.

That's why I thought John Oxford's comment was daft...what is the chance of having a small species infected bird, which btw has not been found in England before (the positives wild species were swans, ducks, or geese, AFAIK), just happening to fall through the ventilation shaft into a turkey farm whose parent company is located in a country with current large outbreaks.  Come on, Sherlock Holmes...



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
mice no, but what about the mites?
Months back I was suggesting mites as a possible vector between poultry and humans, poultry and cats, cats and humans, etc. What happens when a warm blooded animal dies? The parasites all hop off and look for a new host, pronto. Mites are tiny, they can blow in the wind....right into respiratory passages. They can suck blood; infected blood. The possibility of mites as vectors makes a certain amount of sense to me, especially since the recent discovery that the virus can live in flies. It's certainly worth checking out, IMO.

Always have a plan B.

[ Parent ]
imports from Hungary
Hat tip to jsouthworth @ PFI

  Many upset folks across the pond. This BBC web site had over 600 posts when I went there.
  I thought this one was particularly interestinf;

  jsouthworth wrote:
I just spent a long time reading comments of people's thoughts on this latest outbreak of BF in Suffolk. If the H5N1 arrives here with the same outcome, I am sure the comments will be similar. There's plenty of jokes, no fear, fear, wag the dog, finger pointing, conspiracy, etc. Here's the link:

http://newsforums.bb...

  quote;
I heard Bernard Matthews had loads of deliveries from Hungary recently. The boxes are still littered all round his sites my friends say (who work there). I don't know what was in them, but possibly they may have been contaminated with bird flu infested droppings or even an accidentally trapped Hungarian bird of some form or infected bird products/blood.

Gill smyth, Westcountry

There is no pleasure in having nothing to do; the fun is in having lots to do and not doing it." -Mary Wilson Little


[ Parent ]
Netherlands take extra measures after bird flu hits Britain
[snip]Dutch poultry farmers will be obliged to shield their birds from contact with wild birds by closing off outdoor runs with wire mesh and installing a solid roof.[snip]

The precautions will be taken in case the cause of the bird flu in UK is wild birds.

http://www.focus-fen...

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


Innoculated??
"The farm and adjacent factory employs around 1,000 people, mainly migrant workers - many of them Portuguese - who are bussed to work from the nearby towns of Beccles, Lowestoft and Great Yarmouth. Yesterday around two dozen of them - those who worked in the shed where the flock was infected - were being inoculated at a nearby surgery.[snip]"

Innoculated with what I wonder??!!

Another report said they were being given Tamiflu - kinda late, no?


which link
was this from?

Tamiflu - no, not late.  Sensible, standard precaution.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
found it.
I suspect they might be giving them the seasonal flu vaccine, to prevent co-infection.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
The real bird flu threat lies elsewhere: opinion/Guardian
Summary:  UK is more able to cope with bird flu than are Africa and Asia.  More openness is desirable.  Article labeled Leader / The Observer has more to say, all spot on, imo.  The best thing is the comment afterward.  The writer is DQuixote1217 and he/she lays it all out, a summary of bf-->pandemic.  I hope many thousands read it.  It's just what's needed.

http://www.guardian....

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor


Rice as a culprit?
I have read somewhere else about rice being a possible commonality with H5N1.  Is there a diary on here that explores that or did I see it somewhere else.  Interesting theory.  I wouldn't think it likely but would like to re-look at it.

Wasn't it more rice paddies and domestic ducks let loose to feed
in the paddies where wild birds also land?

"The truth does not change according to our ability to stomach it."  Flannery O'Connor

[ Parent ]
Here it is
Here is the diary.  I take the blame or credit;-)  Did I put on my tinfoil hat when I started it.  You be the judge.

http://www.newfluwik...

Here is an article about rice production and consumption in Hungary.  Yes, they have rice patties.  I checked it out when I started the above mentioned diary, but chose not to add Hungary to the list since it is a small amount of production compared the the other countries.  Here it is:
http://ressources.ci...


[ Parent ]
My hunch
Is that we have infected rodents in the grain, whether it be rice or corn...etc.  (My tinfoil is shiny side out;-)

[ Parent ]
rice paddies
only in the sense of the ducks grazing on them, not that the rice carry the virus in and of itself.



All 'safety concerns' are hypothetical.  If not, they'd be called side effects...


[ Parent ]
WHO situation update - Nigeria
http://www.who.int/c...

This reads like a Public Assurance propaganda by the Nigerian poultry industry.

This also tells me that the style of writing for the WHO situation updates varies by the host country.

You want perspective. I want perspective. Let's talk. We don't have to agree on every thing. If we do, one of us is redundant.


When all is said and done...
Follow the money.

Look at the propagation of the virus. Follow the paths of eggs and hatchlings.

Enjoy your KFC -- if ya'know what I see.

  TD


IRAQ - Sus case in Iraqi Kurdistan
Went looking for any news on Mojo's post about a sus case who died in Jan & tested neg in Iraqi Kurdistan [in Lookout diary for Iraq] and came across this -- sounds like another sus case in Iraqi Kurdistan...

Google-translated from Arabic:

Voices of Iraq:  Kurdistan - avian influenza
Wrote: Abdulhamid on Friday, 02 February 2007-05:02 PM BT

Suspected case of bird flu disease in the territory k Rdstan [Kurdistan] Iraq

From Hamid Zebari
Arbil - (Voices of Iraq)

The Minister of Health of the government of Kurdistan to Iraq M. Friday that there is a suspect case in the province is perhaps T. the fact that the disease-stricken bird flu were sent designated the World Health Organization laboratory in Egypt.

Zarian said Dr. Osman, Minister of Health of the government but Klim in a joint press conference with Dr Ali al-Shamri rarely Health saw in the Iraqi government, "There is a case suspect a contracted avian influenza under examination, been taking the necessary preventive action.  i added "We are in touch with the Ministry of Health in Baghdad, and the right e of global, But so far we have not received any funds for the campaign A'la Mia's protective of this disease, We asked the Iraqi government and the World Health Organization Yeh help us in determining the amount of media outreach."

The minister refrained from giving information about the area where this situation, the suspect said, "I will not declare the name of the region only after the return of the laboratory tests result Yeh."

For his part, reduced Iraqi Health Minister, the emergence of this situation Almchtba e, and said "this is a suspect case, The Iraqi government asked not announced until ray laboratory analysis of the birth of Egypt, To date no such tests, This is not emotional in the media."

He pointed to the existence of a budget to confront the disease, He said, "we have the budget to meet the avian disease Altio R. worth 50 billion Iraqi dinars, Last week we met and the amount distributed, but e Nak problematic in how payment of ministries and how hinted Serbian this amounts to failure to ensure survival in the banks."

He explained that the focus of bird flu disease in Iraq leaves g in the Iraqi Kurdistan region and the governorate of Maysan.

And on the issue of the transfer of stores, the Iraqi Ministry of Health Altab Eh to the provinces of Iraq's Kurdistan region and the cities of Mosul K1 Rkok, Salah al-Din, Anbar, Diyala, Minister of Health Iraqi, "We agreed that the city of Irbil, is the focal x Zen medicine to the provinces of Kurdistan and western provinces e and North, and that is what we are working on the application, and spare the responsibility of the ministry of the late arrival of medicines mow automatic much of the population of Iraq."

He added, "will agree with the companies that concluded with the Decade Dr. come medicines directly to the stores Irbil, It will then be distributed to the cities of Kurdistan and other cities in central Iraq."

For his part, The Minister of Health in the government of the Kurdistan region of Iraq the existence of adequate warehouses to store such large quantities of a the medicine in Irbil, pointing to the request submitted to the Council of Ministers in the government of the building other stores in the city for this purpose.

The two ministers held today, Friday, meeting with the heads of the Riat Health in Arbil, Sulaymaniyah, Dohuk, Kirkuk, Mosul, Diyala, Salahuddin, with the absence of the Chairman of the health of Anbar, to discuss the mechanism to send caused loya warehouses in Arbil to their towns. H M

http://aswataliraq.i...

About the sus case that died in Jan & tested neg:
http://www.newfluwik...

Proud FAF-er.


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