Flu Wiki Forum - Preps

Prepping Information Index

AlohaOR — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 05:59:11 GMT

Use this diary to find and post links to your favorite prepping diaries.
Click on the diary name to go to the diary or Flu Wiki (fluwiki.info) page.

Link update reminder: Any links to the Flu Wiki (not diaries in Flu Wiki Forum) in older diaries will need to be updated by replacing www.fluwikie.com with www.fluwiki.info

General Prepping Information

Today's Preps 06-19-09 to... by Oremus
What If You Only Have 24 Hours to Prep? by Bronco Bill
Family Preparedness Information by AlohaOR
Basic Emergency Preparation List by Annie
Pandemic Preparedness Guides (Flu Wiki page)
Summary of Personal Prepping Diaries by Irene, including links to Flu Prep Diaries 1-26

Prepping - Just Starting Out by Bronco Bill
Owl's Nest Prep Supply List by Bronco Bill
Prepping for Families with Special Needs Children by SusanC
Prepping for Families with Special Needs Children Part 2 by SusanC
Prepping on the Cheap by Greenmom

Return of Prep O' the week: Finding storage space by Greenmom
Apartment and Multi-Family Dwelling Prepping by Irene
Amount of Prep Items and When to SIP by tess

"How To" sites by Bronco Bill
Survival Tools by Richard-FL
Power, Heat and Light by Irene
Fuel Heat by Will
Weekly prepping: Lighting by Greenmom
Alternative Power - Technology Discussions by eccles

Water Collection, Storage and Purification

Water Diary by Larry G
Water - water - water - a necessary prep by Sick_Of_It
Water Sources and Collection (Flu Wiki page)
Water Storage by Will
Water Storage (Flu Wiki page)
Water Purification by Will
Water Purification (Flu Wiki page)

Food: Selection & Storage

Food Storage (Flu Wiki page)
Food Storage Links by Irene
Helpful Hints for Your Emergency Food Pantry by KathyinFL
Here is the Food List by Richard-FL
Simplest, Most Easy to Shop for, No Cook Prep Shopping List by Tempest
MRE-like foods on the grocery shelf by Hillbilly Bill
OK I shopped and shopped but NOW WHAT? (food calculators and food inventories) by ChuckE

Food: Preserving

Canning as a method of food storage preparation by KathyinFL
Home Canning by Irene
Dehydrating Food: Methods and Recipes by KathyinFL

Food: Alternative Cooking Techniques

Alternative Cooking Methods by KathyinFL
Solar Oven Recipes & Tips by Edna Mode
Freezer Bag Cooking by bgw in MT
Retained Heat Cooker/Haybox by Genoa

Food: Recipes

Basic Box Simple Recipes by Average Concerned Mom
Recipes Using Canned and Dried Foods by KathyinFL
Substitute Ingredients by KathyinFL
Storage Food Recipes (links to Flu Wiki pages) by Irene
Narrated 30 Day Pandemic Menu by KathyinFL

Beans, Beans, Beans... by KathyinFL
Bisquick Recipes by KathyinFL
Breads and Spreads by KathyinFL
Canned Meats and TVP by Kathyin FL
Homemade Instant and Convenience Foods by KathyinFL
SIP Snacks and Desserts by KathyinFL
Soups by KathyinFL
Whole Grain Recipes & Resources by Edna Mode
Wild Foods and Game Recipes by KathyinFL

Gardening

Victory Gardens 2009 by Okieman
Victory Gardens 08 by gardner
Victory Gardens II by gardner
Victory Garden! (Er...I mean bird flu garden) by Kelly Phan
Edible Landscaping as a prep by Sick_Of_It

Home Health Care

Updated Home Care Guidance by DemFromCT
Medical Supplies by LMWatBullRun
Home Remedies by KathyinFL

Connecting with Others

Finding Local Preppers by DemFromCT
Fluwikians who report in Virginia bu senegal1

Prepping for School Closures

Extended Stay-at-Home Enrichment Activity Kit, Grades 1-3 by Average Concerned Mom

Family Preparedness Information

AlohaOR — Wed, 10 Jun 2009 06:45:43 GMT

Post links here for your favorite basic family preparedness information sources.
Here are some of my favorites:

Comprehensive Sources

Get Pandemic Ready:Collection of short, easy to use PDF guides on family preparedness: www.GetPandemicReady.org

codeReady by Hennepin County, MN: https://www.codeready.org/inde...

Preparing for a Swine Flu (H1N1) Pandemic by the American Red Cross (2 pp.): English or Spanish pdf files

Pandemic Influenza Preparation and Response: A Citizen's Guide by Innovative Support to Emergencies Diseases and Disasters (71 pp.): May 2009 update

Emergency Home Preparation: a library of links and resources compiled by ReadyMom: http://emergencyhomepreparatio...

Home Health Care

Your Guide to Pandemic Flu Care in the Home by Howard County, MD (4 pp.): http://www.bepreparedbeready.o...

Stay at Home Toolkit for Influenza,y Montgomery County, MD (32 pp.): http://www.montgomerycountymd....

Good Home Treatment of Influenza by Dr. Grattan Woodson (about 34 pp.): downloadable options

Water

Emergency Water Purification from GetPandemicReady.org (2 pp.): pdf

Emergency Water Supplies and Treatment by Colorado State University Extension: http://www.ext.colostate.edu/p...

Food and Water in an Emergency from FEMA and American Red Cross (16 pp.): http://www.epa.gov/safewater/

Food and Food Preparation

Food: Getting Started from GetPandemicReady.org (3 pp.): pdf

Small Spaces, Small Budgets by Average Concerned Mom (26 pp.): pdf

Bare Basics Cook Plan, a step-by-step plan for getting started with low-cost food storage, including recipes to use the stored food, by Average Concerned Mom (11 pp.): pdf

Food storage calculator spreadsheet: http://foodstoragemadeeasy.net...

Directions for making vagabond stoves, buddy burners and box ovens (Note: buddy burners should only be made in plain cans without plastic coating on the inside): http://www.lovetheoutdoors.com...

Haybox cooking directions for retained heat slow-cooking with improvised materials (2 pp.): pdf

Solar cooking plans for a wide variety of solar cooking devices: http://solarcooking.org/plans/

Alternative cooking methods using improvised materials (flower pot, cookie tin, etc.): http://guidezone.e-guiding.com...

Sanitation

Hygiene: Waste from GetPandemicReady.org (3 pp.): pdf

Infection Control and Water Purification Using Household Bleach by Dr. Grattan Woodson: http://birdflumanual.com/artic...

Other

Basic Emergency Supply Kit recommendations (for a very short-term emergency situation) from Ready.gov: http://www.ready.gov/america/g...

Summary of Personal Prepping Diaries

Irene — Thu, 23 Nov 2006 20:47:49 GMT

(includes diaries created up to June 30, 2008)

This diary contains a listing of links to all diaries on the subject of preparing for a pandemic on a personal level.

Flu Prep Diaries

1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20
21	22	23	24	25	26

Finding Area Preppers - diary links by state within U.S. or by country or region internationally

Prep Items That May Become Scarce Early On
Inexpensive, Non-perishable Preps
Family and Individual Preparation
Prepping -- Just Starting Out
What if You Only Have 24 Hours To Prep?
Don't know where to start
Here is the Food List
Prepping on the cheap
Weekly Prepping
Weekly Preps (Jan 24-30,2007)
Weekly Preps (Jan 31-Feb 6,2007)
Prep o' the week
Prep O' the Week, the Sequel
Return of Prep O'the week(3)
Deadlines for Prep lists
Testing Prep Items
Survival tools
Today's Flu Prep
Any new preps o' the week?
How to Make or DIY
A Worthwhile Exercise?
Basic Preps That Some May Forget
Basic Emergency Preparation List
Simplest, Most Easy to Shop for, No Cook Prep Shopping List
Prep Bargains
OK I shopped and shopped but NOW WHAT?
Websites for Preparedness Supplies
Apartment & Multi-Family Dwelling Prepping
Prep Lists
Stuff to hoard and make
What are your clever preps storage ideas?
An Improved Food List
Prep Items Which Find You
Oddball Prep Stuff
How Many Have Trialed Their Preparations?
Prep-Testing Resolution
Prep Eating Experiment
Prep Eating Experiment, part two
Prep Eating Experiment, part three
Prep Gift Ideas
Preps for Christmas Gifts
Prep Items from Santa
Prepping for Families with Special Needs Children
Bug Out Bag
Putting together quick "grab it" meal kits for your preps
Hiding Your Preps
Hiding Preps Sharing Preps
Testing/Usage of Products Thread
Average Concerned Mom needs Nutrition Help
Homemade Cleaning Products
Pandemic Help Sources within Canada
UK Prep items
Pandemic Preparation and Kids
Prep List for Disaster (Documentation)
Root Cellaring
Edible Landscaping as a prep
"How To" Sites
Narrated 30 Day Pandemic Menu

Homemade Instant and Convenience Foods
Storage Food Recipes
Basic Box Simple Recipes
Bisquick Recipes
Bread
Whole Grain Recipes & Resources
Breads and Spreads
Soups
Beans, Beans, Beans ....
Canned Meats and TVP....
SIP Snacks and Desserts
Recipes Using Canned and Dried Foods
Wild Foods and Game Recipes
Substitute Ingredients
Solar Oven Recipes & Tips
MRE-like foods on the grocery shelf
Food Storage
Update Prep list Food and Food Storage
Freezer Bag Cooking
Helpful Hints for Your Emergency Food Pantry
Dehydrating Food: Methods and Recipes
Home Canning
Home canning questions
My First Canning Experience
Canning as a method of food storage preparation
Need pressure canner advice
Opinions for long term food storage--MRE's vs Mountain House type

Cooking Stove
The Preppers Stove
Alternative Cooking Methods
Retained Heat Cooker/Haybox
Communications
4th Update Prep Lists "Generators"
My Coleman Powermate Generator
Surviving W/O the Grid: A Resource
Alternative Power - Technology Discussions
Solar Backup Power
Prep List Item - Solar Battery Charger
Power, Heat & Light
Buddy Burners, Kelly Kettles,Wood Pellets
Emergency Heat
Winter Heating Question
Prep: Heat & Energy, decentralized safety

Water Storage
Update on Water
Update Preps Lists: Water Storage
Water - water - water - a necessary prep
Water & Sewage: Citizen and Cities
Can anyone answer some Katadyn Water Filter Questions?
Water Collection, Purification, & Storage
Water & Sewage
Questions On Large Water Tanks

Psychological Factors
Convincing Others
What Would Motivate Those Around You To Prep?

Also Recommended:

Preparedness Guides - links to Dr. Woodson's monographs, Dr. Dave's monograph, Will Stewart's guide and works by others.

Flu Prep 26 (XXVI)

Bronco Bill — Sat, 25 Nov 2006 03:47:00 GMT

Flu Prep 26 (XXVI) here.

See below for helpful links
-DemFromCT
General — for Newbies
Help! I Only Have 24hrs to Prep
Just Starting to Prep
"Master Prep List" by Owl
Preparing in Stages" by Eccles
Family and Individual Preparation

How Many Trips to Get Fully Prepped?

General — For Intermediate and Senior Preppers
Items That Will Be the Most Scarce
Minimalist Prep Ideas
Exotic Vs. Mundane Preparations
Inexpensive Non-perishable Preps
Preps You Might Forget | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |

Topping Off Your Preps
Contents of Bug-Out Bag
Practice Is Essential

Storage Food Recipes

Irene — Tue, 21 Nov 2006 21:32:04 GMT

HOT FOOD RECIPES:
Appetizers/Snacks/Spreads	Beans & Rice
Breads	Meat, Chicken & Fish
Breakfast Dishes	Ramen, Pasta, Noodles & Grains
Salads & Sandwiches	Soups & Stews
Sweets	Side Dishes
COLD FOOD RECIPES:
Breakfast	Appetizers/Snacks/Spreads
Salads & Sandwiches
OTHER:
Drinks	Canning and Preserving
Substitutions

Pandemic Help Sources within Canada

Irene — Mon, 20 Nov 2006 18:39:58 GMT

This is intended to be a quick reference list. Please keep extraneous commentary to a minimum so that this diary can serve that purpose.

Prep: Heath, Light & Energy, decentralized safety

urdar — Sun, 19 Nov 2006 20:31:15 GMT

A diary about energy for light, heath, machines and cooking the decentralized way. For preps and enviroment.
First one: a new and exiting technoligy that makes the old generator abselete.

"Combined Heat and Power (CHP) generators in America have so far been used only for large-scale projects. They can heat and power entire neighborhoods or office complexes. And, in doing it, they are about three times more efficient that centralized fossil fuel power plants."

http://www.treehugge...

http://www.climate-e...

In a enviroment way this unit is still using fossil fuel, but its more efficient than fossil fuel supplied via the grid. In my wiev this is the perfect suplement to a solar heath system with water distributed heath, to use in the coldest season up north..

But its a very expensive thing to buy as a amergency unit only.

Anyway, my guess is that this machine is realy quiet as well, so then only leaves the problem with beeing the only one in the neighborhod with full light in the windows. Maybe sharing the power with the neighboors are a very good way to gain allies in a bad pandemic;-)

Today's Preps 05-07-2013 to ........

Bronco Bill — Tue, 07 May 2013 20:46:33 GMT

So much to prep, so little time.
At some point you have become convinced that having a few extra things on hand might be prudent. This diary is to help you along that pathway.

Post, questions, bargain finds, information, advice, or anything else related to prepping.

There are a few old, out-of-date Diaries here, dating back to about 4 years ago, but let's start fresh...

Not Influenza, but a stress test on your preps!

Bronco Bill — Sat, 27 Oct 2012 01:46:29 GMT

The following is the Declaration of Emergency Preparedness for the Commonwealth of Virginia, dated October 26, 2012. This has nothing to do with influenza, but will most certainly play out as a major stress test for those of who live along the Continental US's Eastern Seaboard. I'm not sure about what other states such as the Carolinas, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania and states in New England have announced, but this declaration is one of the most serious emergency announcements put out by the Virginia government in many, many years.

If you are impacted by this "Frankenstorm" and have had to use your preps, let us all know what adjustments you may have had to make, whether you had to bug out, or if you were able to shelter in place with little to no disruption.

Above all, BE SAFE!!
- Long Duration Storm Has Potential to Produce Extensive Power Outages; Significant Flooding -

Impact in Commonwealth to Begin Saturday Night, Possibly Continue Through Wednesday; Storm Will be Followed by Colder Temperatures

RICHMOND - Governor Bob McDonnell has declared a state of emergency in Virginia in preparation for Hurricane Sandy, which is anticipated to affect the Commonwealth over the weekend and early next week. There is some uncertainty with the storm's final track, but all forecasts call for significant impacts to Virginia. Sandy will be transitioning to an extratropical storm as it reaches Virginia, leading to a broader wind field with a wider reach across the Commonwealth. In addition, current models predict a slower storm and therefore a longer duration event than usual.

Based on current forecasts, the eastern third of Virginia could experience tropical storm force winds for more than 48 hours, several inches of rain and coastal flooding. Even inland areas of Virginia could see strong winds and significant rainfall. There is a strong possibility of extensive power outages. Residents in the western and southwestern parts of the state could see some snowfall, and all areas of the Commonwealth will experience colder temperatures in the wake of Sandy, which, when coupled with anticipated power outages, could produce additional challenges for Virginians.

Speaking about the State of Emergency, Governor McDonnell noted, "We are issuing this state of emergency today as a precautionary measure in order to ensure that we are ready for any potential effects of Hurricane Sandy in the Commonwealth. Weather forecasters are predicting significant weather impacts across much of Virginia, and a long duration event. Due to the track of this storm, and the fact that it will be a hurricane transitioning into a more nor'easter like system, we could see severe weather lasting for 48 hours or more in the state. In that scenario, saturated soil coupled with high winds could lead to major tree damage and extensive power outages. Now is the time for all Virginians to prepare for those possible power outages and disruptions to public services. In addition, forecasters predict falling temperatures during and behind this system, and in areas that suffer power outages this will lead to new challenges in the days after the storm departs. Virginians should make sure their family members, friends and neighbors are prepared for this storm. I encourage all Virginians to gather batteries, blankets, water, canned goods, and other necessities prior to the anticipated onset of storm conditions late Saturday and early Sunday."

Eastern Virginia residents who live in low-lying areas should be ready to evacuate ahead of the storm. Citizens should listen to local TV and radio stations for instructions, such as an evacuation order for specific areas, details about evacuation routes and locations of evacuation shelters. If an evacuation is ordered for your area, take your emergency supplies with you, including all medications. For a list of suggested emergency supplies you should collect for your family, visit: http://www.vaemergency.gov/rea...

At this time, the Commonwealth does not plan to reverse lanes on Interstate 64, however a final decision on this matter will be reached this evening. Residents should review the evacuation routes for their area to determine the best route for their families. In the event that a mandatory evacuation is necessary in specific areas, citizens will be provided further instructions through local and state authorities.

A state of emergency is declared under state law so that state resources can be made available. The governor's emergency declaration ensures a fully coordinated state response to support local initial recovery efforts. A declaration also decreases time needed to get personnel, equipment and supplies on scene.

State agencies are preparing for Sandy in the following ways:

The Commonwealth has activated the Virginia Emergency Response Team.
The Virginia Emergency Operations Center is coordinating the state's response with increased staffing available 24 hours a day.
Virginia State Police personnel have been placed on stand-by and will be pre-positioned to the areas where they will be needed based on the final projected path of the hurricane. The Virginia State Police Swift Water Rescue Team is standing by in strategic locations.
Chainsaw crews from the Virginia Department of Forestry are standing by with emergency response personnel and to help with debris removal.
Virginia Department of Transportation crews are ready to clear roads and ensure roads are safe for travel.
The Virginia National Guard has been authorized to bring personnel on state active duty and begin prepositioning resources.
The Virginia Department of Health is coordinating with hospitals and long-term care facilities to ensure that they are prepared for storm impacts.
Emergency preparedness is everyone's responsibility. For information about preparing for Hurricane Sandy and for regular updates, visit http://www.vaemergency.gov/. For general information about the storm, dial 211.

Today's Preps 07-29-09 to ........

Oremus — Sun, 26 Jul 2009 13:37:32 GMT

So much to prep, so little time.
At some point you have become convinced that having a few extra things on hand might be prudent. This diary is to help you along that pathway.

Post, questions, bargain finds, information, advice, or anything else related to prepping.

There are a few old, out-of-date Diaries here, dating back to about 4 years ago, but let's start fresh...

New PPF poll - July 09

DennisC — Wed, 15 Jul 2009 16:56:38 GMT

For newbies- we have sometimes asked for people's "personal pucker factor" PPF. It give an indication of people's "fear factor".

How do you fell as Belgium mobilizes troops to hand out masks, Argentina closes congress, vaccine makers are reporting problems, death counts are creeping up......

Virginia Preppers

Oremus — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 21:43:34 GMT

Virginia is for Preppers
Post your local prep advice here.

Things like organizing local group buys, state tax breaks, local shortages, sales etc.

Things that would benefit everyone should be posted in the General prepping diaries.

Todays Preps 06-19-09 to 07-25-09

Oremus — Fri, 19 Jun 2009 16:01:55 GMT

Ask your prep questions. Tell of your finds.
At some point you have become convinced that having a few extra things on hand might be prudent. This diary is to help you along that pathway.

Post, questions, bargain finds, information, advice, or anything else related to prepping.

Pandemic Partners - A way to help each other during a flu pandemic

PanFluWatch — Mon, 11 May 2009 10:26:14 GMT

Cross-posted from PanFluWatch:

During a pandemic, we all know a lot of people are going to get sick.

Whether they get treated in a hospital or recover at home, a lot of those who get sick are going to need some help... and not just with their illness. Even the seasonal flu can knock you onto your back for a week or more, and a pandemic flu virus is likely to to be worse. So a lot of people who get sick will also need some help managing their day-to-day lives until they're back on their feet, simple things like:

- Making sure there is food in the house
- Contacting healthcare providers
- Helping provide care for children or other dependents
- Helping provide care for pets
- Contacting family members
- Picking up medicine from the pharmacy

But in today's society there are many of us who could fall off the map without anyone noticing right away. In many cases, it's all too possible for a person to be home sick for weeks before anyone thinks to check on them, and this will be even more true during a pandemic.

Because the same social distancing measures that will help to protect us from the flu (staying away from other people as much as possible, working from home if you can, etc.) will also reduce social interaction to the point that even those who would ordinarily be missed after a very brief illness will be at risk of falling through the cracks.

To help fix this problem, people can pair up with people they trust (friends, neighbors, family members, co-workers, members of their place of worship) to keep track of one another during a pandemic and help each other as needed.

The Reveres over at Effect Measure mentioned one program to do just that, a faith-based initiative called Flu Friends.

A similarly-alliterative initiative called Pandemic Partners is also under development to help people help each other through a pandemic. Right now, it mostly consists of a set of forms people can use to share the information their "pandemic partners" will need to be able to assist them.

Copies of the form are available as a Word Document: Pandemic Partners.doc

or PDF: Pandemic Partners.pdf

The forms are a work in progress, so if you have any suggestions for improving them, let me know and I'll pass them along.

Here is what I'm going to give friends, neighbors and family this weekend

LMWatBullRun — Thu, 07 May 2009 22:32:26 GMT

So after participating in the various debates here the last couple of days, I was thinking about what I ought to tell people this weekend. It seems to be becoming clear that the present outbreak is not nearly as bad as it could be, and people need to know that.

On the other hand, there is probably a long way to go before this pandemic is over, and the path forward may be much less attractive than it looks at present, and people need to hear that, too.

So what to tell people now, about what's going on and what to do about it?

Here is my draft-
Well, again we have good news and bad news. The bad news is that we are indeed in the early stages of a worldwide influenza outbreak, and it has killed a number of people. The good news is that here in the USA this outbreak has not yet proven to be severe. But we don't know yet how this will turn out in the end, or even how this first wave will turn out. There are many unknowns when it comes to the flu.

"I do not know". Those are the words I hear from responsible influenza scientists in response to many questions about this current pandemic. That's not what we are hearing from the media because "We don't know" does not sell papers or improve viewer and listener numbers. As a result there has been a lot of misinformation circulating. This update will concentrate on what we DO know, what we think to be true, what we expect to happen (and why), what might happen (and why), and what I recommend people do, and why.

We know the following:
Confirmed cases in the USA have continued to increase over the past week. {Comment- this was expected. Many more people will get sick before there is enough immunity in the population to limit the number of new cases.}

CDC has stated that they will not attempt to confirm new cases in an area where the presence of the Mexican Flu has already been confirmed, but will focus testing on suspect samples from areas that have no confirmation yet. {Comment- this means that the actual case numbers will remain significantly greater than those 'confirmed'. Or in other words, don't put much stock in the 'confirmed case count' as any measure of the spread or prevalence of this disease.}

There have been two confirmed deaths from this virus in the US, and over 30 people have been hospitalized. The median age of those taken ill is under 20. This virus may be different from the 1918 virus in HOW it kills people, but it can be lethal when given the opportunity.

The apparent severity of the disease as it presents in Mexico is greater than in the USA. The reasons for this are not known; more about this later.

'Mild' for an epidemiologist is not what a layperson would call mild. When the media says 'mild', what they mean is you probably won't die. Mexican flu symptoms include:
Fever of up to 104 degrees F
Severe muscle pain
Severe bone and joint pain
Severe nausea
Vomiting
Diarrhea
Debilitating weakness both during and after.
{comment- Hydration fluids, anti-viral drugs, and OTC meds for these symptoms are a good thing to have on hand. Another way to put it is that you can be so sick that you cannot text. Apparently this resonates with teenagers}

Immuno-compromised people, those with chronic respiratory ailments, and pregnant persons are especially at risk from influenza. If you are in one of these risk groups, be especially careful to avoid infection.

I think the following is true:
This Mexican Flu virus appears highly infectious, based on the rapid increase in reported and suspect cases. Suspect case counts double in less than 2 days.
Based on the scanty epidemiological data and case descriptions, it appears that hundreds of people have died from it in Mexico, but the data are fragmented, and the actual total will never be known.

The apparent difference in severity between Mexico and the USA could be explained by one or more of the following factors:
This flu strain does not present as typical flu; there is far more GI involvement, for one thing, and much greater myalgia, for another.

Misdiagnosis during the early stages of this outbreak in Mexico seems highly likely, whereas the US had more warning and knew better what to look for.

It seems likely that the total number of Mexican cases has been significantly under-reported; the vast majority of milder cases were probably never recorded as flu cases. A seroprevalence study would help, but those results would not be available for months.

Mexican culture and economic conditions discourage those taken ill from seeking professional treatment until much later in the course of the disease; Most Mexicans won't go to the doctor until they are VERY ill.
Tamiflu was not generally prescribed until late April when the nature of the outbreak was determined; Mexican cases treated early with Tamiflu show roughly the same prognosis as US cases.

So far, the USA has seen relatively few cases, and fewer still have progressed to conclusion. {We may yet see significant numbers of hospitalizations and more deaths here in the US.}

Mexico City has one of the highest population densities on Earth, encouraging a higher initial infectious bolus, and more possibility of infection;

Mexico City's poor water quality discourages adequate hydration; dehydration is a significant amplifier of the severity of any influenza outbreak;

There may be other factors, but the takeaway message is that it is TOO EARLY TO SAY that we can safely ignore this pandemic outbreak.
The virus appears to continue to be Tamiflu sensitive; early use of Tamiflu is thought to be one reason why the death rate so far in the USA has been lower than in Mexico. {comment- There is no way to know when this will change, but most experts are very concerned about this eventuality, and I agree with their concern.}

There is debate about this in the scientific community, but this virus appears to have a longer than normal incubation period, and a longer than normal infection period compared to seasonal flu. There is speculation that this may be one reason why this virus is so infectious.

Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions appear to be effective. Mexico significantly slowed their outbreak by closing down all public functions for a week. School closings appear to slow the chain of infection in our children.

What we can expect to happen:
I expect to see case counts increase for the next several weeks, until a significant fraction of the population has been exposed and infected. It would not surprise me to see 100 times as many cases in three weeks. Although you may not yet have experienced it, or know anyone that has, if this reproduction rate continues, you soon will. This means that there will be 100 times as many opportunities for the virus to acquire nastier characteristics.

When that 'knee' or leveling off will be seen is dependent on too many variables, including weather, for anyone to be able to confidently predict at this time, but at some point, the number of new cases will stop increasing. In past pandemics, this started to occur once about 15-25% of the population had become ill; ultimately, I expect somewhere around 1/3 of the people in the US to have had some form of this disease. This may be a low estimate; nobody knows for sure.

With CDC revising the recommendation for school closure, I expect to see many fewer school closures, and an increase in the rate of school age infections.

If past history is any basis (and it may or may not be, for reasons discussed later) then we may see a respite in June or early July due to hot weather which may last until the fall, at which time we may see a return, a second wave, which might be more severe than this one.

Eventually, I expect to see this virus acquire the Tamiflu resistance gene, and Tamiflu will no longer work. There is no way to know when this will happen, but the consensus opinion is that it will. This change may or may not include Relenza resistance; it depends which genes it picks up. The selection pressure for Relenza resistance is thought to be lower than that for Tamiflu resistance, but there is no way to know for sure what will happen. The consensus opinion is that Relenza resistance is less likely, but it is not known whether or not Relenza will continue to be effective.

At best, the health care system will be severely stressed if enough people get sick, and at worst, it might not be able to function. Shortages of anti-viral drugs are already reported, and the present vaccine production in the USA will only protect a fraction of the population. Shortages of care, vaccines and drugs can be expected, either this summer or more likely later this fall.

What might happen:
With the changes in travel since the last great pandemic in 1918, the waves that we have seen in past pandemics may not occur. It may be that we won't see any summer downturn in cases, and that there will be continual re-infection of North America from the Southern Hemisphere, and vice versa. This acceleration of viral evolution could result in a continuous chaotic pandemic of increasing severity which might progress for 12-24 months, or longer. No way to know how likely this is, but it is being discussed as a possibility.

It is also possible, for reasons we do not know, that this outbreak will quickly fizzle out soon, and not return until the fall. It is even possible that it may never return. I think this to be highly unlikely, given what we have seen so far, but it cannot be ruled out. I would not, however, bet my family's well-being on it.
It is possible, if enough people get sick, either during this first wave or later on in the year, that there would be interruptions in power and phone service, or to water and sewer service in towns and cities. The Internet could be down. These service interruptions could be brief, or extended. If generation capacity were affected, and not just the upkeep of the power distribution system, these outages could be prolonged.

Health care facilities, especially hospitals, could be swamped if enough people get sick at once. Doctors and nurses have a higher infection rate than the general public, so if this virus becomes widespread, it may be difficult or impossible to find professional treatment.

It is possible that this H1N1 virus could swap genes or portions of genes with other influenza viruses now circulating in human, or other mammals, producing a more virulent strain, possibly much more virulent strain. The Mexican Flu is currently showing a case fatality rate of about the same as the 1918 pandemic, when Tamiflu is not used; simply acquiring the Tamiflu resistance gene would multiply hospitalizations and deaths many fold, and this is not the worst possible outcome. There are possible nightmare scenarios that I see no point in discussing here, but they do exist.

In view of the above, here is what I recommend:

Continue to exercise reasonable prudence, because WE DO NOT KNOW what will happen. An influenza pandemic is a marathon, not a sprint. If this pandemic is like the others we have historical records on, we are only in the early stage of the first of what may be several waves. I suggest that you limit your exposure to limit the opportunity this virus has to change into something worse, and to keep you and your family from having to experience an extremely unpleasant and possibly deadly disease.
Make a pandemic plan. Prudent people prepare properly.
Stock up on essentials:
Food
Water
Medicine
Sanitary supplies
PPE
Avoid getting ill-
Exercise cough discipline;
Practice social distancing;
Practice good hand hygiene
Avoid interaction with obviously ill individuals.
Avoid 'sharing' the flu with others; stay home if you are sick, and encourage sick people to stay home.
Educate yourself and your family on what the flu is, and how to treat it. Check out these websites-
FluWiki
GetPandemicReady
PlanForPandemic
CDC
WHO
BirdFluManual
Make sure that your family knows the plan; having flu medicine stockpiled will be no good if the only person who knows where things are kept is ill.
Continue to monitor this outbreak. Check the CDC pages and the flu blogs regularly.

In particular, I would recommend that you NOT actively seek this infection. There is no way to know what sort of case you will get, nor is there any way to know whether an early infection will confer any immunity against a subsequent strain of this virus.

I solicit comments and questions, and if anyone wants to copy some or all of it, feel free!

First Hand Account of Kentucky's Ice Storm

cottontop — Tue, 03 Feb 2009 03:29:06 GMT

Once again, the importance of prepping

Reading accounts such as this, I can not stress enough just how important it is to have the basic preps stocked and ready.
January 31, 2009
Alvena F., Paducah KY

I live in the Paducah KY suburbs (far western KY), one of the hardest-hit places in this ice storm that came in on Monday evening here. When it was over, we had over an inch of ice on everything. Ice produces tremendous weight on plants and structures like electric poles. It has devastated our community and people here report nothing to compare with this storm in their entire lifetimes. I have never experienced anything even near this bad before in my 59 years.

We have been huddled around our wood-burning stove for the past few days, with no electricity, but thankful that we had heat and food. Many people do not have heat, and the electric service has been slow to get re-started. We finally got electricity Thursday night about 1:30 a.m. but it came back down again Friday at noon and then back up again Friday at midnite. We are thankful, however, as they state that in a neighboring county it may be months before they get all the electricity restored. The problem in that county is that they have about 1500 power poles that came down "like dominoes" in some areas.

They put police at the gas stations yesterday to keep fights from starting in the long lines that had formed. We finally saw some National Guard troops and heavy equipment yesterday. The stores are starting to open, however some of them have limited hours, or require cash, or are continuing to have intermittent service due to electricity outages.

We hear of many people caught in rural areas who have no way to get out due to fallen trees, and also no heat. We still have people in Paducah with no heat, too. Until yesterday it was pretty cold, yesterday it actually got up to maybe 50 degrees and the sun came out for the first time since the ice came. The ice started melting and we are hoping that today it will all melt off the lines and trees.

I have at least 4 tree branches on top of my house, and the sound when they hit my roof was just incredibly frightening. I slept almost none Monday night because all we heard was a continuous "CRACK.....BOOOM!" as the branches cracked off the trees and fell. Literally, as soon as one finished falling, you heard the crack of the next one falling. Almost all trees here now have no branches at the tops and down most of the sides, and most of my yard's shade trees will have to have some severe tree surgery just to try to get them to where they can recover. I may have to cut some of the trees down due to the damage being so severe. (This is a real lesson to me and I won't let my trees get this big so close to my home ever again.)

Metropolis, a little town just across the river in IL that was also hit in this storm, still has no power at all, and the mayor in conjunction with the other six southernmost counties finally got the governor of IL to declare the southern seven counties a disaster area so that they could get some government assistance like we are getting.

Our governor in KY did get the president to declare us a federal disaster area and FEMA assistance (for whatever that may be worth).

The most critical problem we have had is fuel, largely due to the gas stations not having any electricity to power their pumps. We do have plenty of fuel here, it's merely a distribution problem. (However always remember, it only takes one break in the chain from supply to consumer to keep you from getting what you need.)

Another factor has been that most of the stores can't take credit cards unless they have electricity, so having cash on hand would have been helpful for a lot of people.

Stop lights just started working yesterday, which hopefully is going to ease the traffic congestion that we experienced as people came into town to buy supplies.

Warming shelters were sparse at first, but now they are getting more of them up and running. (But is that where you really want to be when your home is sitting there unguarded in a crisis?)

We were lucky, we've stayed in our home, we have not suffered except for the amenities of life, and we've come through this with a minimum of difficulty. Others have not been so fortunate.

My first thoughts about surviving this situation are:

1. Have an alternative heat source and fuel for the heat source. If you can cook on the heat source, so much the better. Our wood stove was a godsend. I'm burning wood that I have had stored for years on my patio. It was well worth having it there when I needed it.

2. Have food stored that you can heat and eat with a minimum of preparation and have some potable water on hand also. We had canned tuna and soup, eggs, and the like. We also had a cooler to put our refrigerated food in and since it is winter, we just kept the cooler in the garage.

3. Stock up on the fuel that you need ahead of time, you'll be glad later. We had our cars gassed up prior to the storm and were so glad we did when we saw the long lines at the gas stations later on.

4. Have a radio that you can power multiple ways, such as solar, crank, battery, and AC. Ensure that the radio also gets the TV stations so that you can keep up with the emergency broadcasts. We used our TV-band radio every day to stay up on what was happening.

5. Try to have a lantern or old fashioned "coal oil lamp" for light, as candles don't provide much light, the odor may be objectionable, they can be messy and they may pose more of a hazard, especially around children.

6. Have a good supply of batteries in the sizes that your equipment uses. Most batteries last for years and stand storage very well.

7. Have some cash on hand for emergency use.

8. Be on the lookout for unknown people coming into the area who will promise to do needed tasks yard work and home repairs, we have already had many of them coming in the area. Never pay for work that has not yet been done and you are probably better off using a local person or service that you know and trust.

9. Camping supplies like portable stove, pots/pans, can opener and other such non-electric items can come in very handy in a crisis.

10. If you live in a remote area, it's probably advisable to have some kind of personal protection like a gun. I heard of one fellow found a stranger eyeing his generator, who told him he was "just checking it's EPA emission." After the fellow was hesitant to leave his generator, the generator's owner pulled his gun and just seeing that gun solved the problem without any further action.

11. Generators can be nice, however bear in mind the usual ones you see at the store won't power your whole household unless you buy a very expensive commercial variety, and you will have to have very substantial fuel to keep it going. Some people here bought generators and then could not get the needed fuel to use them. While I can afford a generator, I do not think I will buy one, even after sitting without electricity for 3 days. (My attitude might change if I had to sit there for 1-2 months however, so if you live in a remote area, it certainly could be a needed option, depending on your circumstance.) Be sure you know how to operate a generator or any special equipment, as improper ventilation can kill you.

http://www.millennium-ark.net/...

Québec National Civil Protection Plan, Response framework,

Pragmatik — Sun, 21 Dec 2008 15:55:00 GMT

Québec National Civil Protection Plan
National Civil Protection Plan

* Objectives of the Plan
* The Response Framework of the Plan
* Resorting to the National Civil Protection Plan

Objectives of the Plan

The Civil Protection Act, mandates the Minister of Public Security to establish and update a Québec's national civil protection plan (NCPP). The Minister must do so with the cooperation of other Ministers and heads of government agencies concerned.
The National civil protection plan seeks to implement measures:

* to prevent major disasters or attempt to mitigate their impact;
* to improve preparedness for effective response when disaster strikes;
* to promote joint response activities and a prompt return to life as normal.

The Plan makes provisions for the following:

* shared responsibilities among government departments and agencies, based on respective jurisdictions;
* organization of government resources in order to respond to different types of disasters;
* a simplified decision-making structure.

The effectiveness of the Plan depends on a strong civil protection system. This system's strength stems from on four factors:

* greater accountability on the part of citizens for their safety and protection of their property;
* improved preparedness and more autonomy for municipalities to handle a disaster;
* regional partners working together with the community;
* integrated government organization to ensure maximum use of resources.

Citizens and municipalities are the first line of responsibility for civil protection. The purpose of the plan is to support them in major disaster situation.
Governmental authorities will therefore be able to find solutions to problems regarding:

* the ability to simultaneously respond to a vast number of needs that sometimes extend beyond the normal intervention areas of the government's departments and bodies members of the Organisation de sécurité civile du Québec (OSCQ);
* coordination and organization of the response of new partners who may be unfamiliar with civil protection response methods.

The Response Framework of the Plan

The government of Québec has organized its civil protection actions on the basis of fifteen needs likely to arise in the event of a disaster. The needs laid out in the Plan are referred to as "missions". Each mission is under the direction of a government department or agency, which has activities similar to those set forth in the mission, or which has the expertise necessary to successfully accomplish the task at hand.
Missions Organizations Responsible
Economic activities Ministère du Développement économique, de l'Innovation et de l'Exportation
Financial assistance Ministère de la Sécurité publique
Bio-food Ministère de l'Agriculture, des Pêcheries et de l'Alimentation
Communications Ministère des Relations avec les citoyens et de l'Immigration
Electric power Hydro-Québec
Water, hazardous and residual materials Ministère du Développement durable, de l'Environnement et des Parcs
Energy Ministère des Ressources naturelles et de la Faune
Massive evacuation, reentry and security Sûreté du Québec
Housing Société d'habitation du Québec
Telecommunications network Ministère des Services gouvernementaux
Health Ministère de la Santé et des Services sociaux
Support for the OSCQ Ministère de la Sécurité publique
Support services for disaster victims Ministère de la Sécurité publique
Technical support to municipalities Ministère des Affaires municipales et des Régions
Transportation Ministère des Transports
Top of page
Resorting to the National Civil Protection Plan

The Plan is based on a joint action approach and on the responsibility of departments and agencies that are part of the plan. In a situation of a major sinister, the associate deputy minister of the Direction générale de la sécurité civile et de la sécurité incendie of the ministère de la Sécurité publique acts as the government coordinator.
Top of page
Last update: 2006-12-20
Service Statement - Linguistic Policy - Privacy - Accessibility

http://www.msp.gouv.qc.ca/seci...
All comments are welcome, this is a work in progress.

Michel

Resolve to be Ready...Make a Plan NOW!

Bronco Bill — Fri, 12 Dec 2008 10:14:38 GMT

I couldn't really find a diary to post this in, as it's nothing to do directly with PanFlu but it is a reminder to everyone to Make a Plan.

Winter is upon us, and with it blizzards, floods, mudslides, and ice storms. In some areas of the country, and the world, these could mean local evacuations. Remember, this is not a plan for SIP, but a plan for short-term evacuation in case of local emergencies. The link takes you to a site that could very well help you fill out that Bug Out Bag you've always dreamed about!

We've heard it before, but it always bears repeating from time to time.

Posted and reprinted with permission of the Virginia Department of Emergency Management.
Resolve to be Ready ... Make a Plan Now

Have a hard time keeping New Year's resolutions? Here's one that's free and easy to do. Best of all, it will make a difference.

Resolve now to make sure your family has a plan in case of an emergency. Before an emergency happens, sit down together and decide how you will get in touch with each other, where you will go and what you will do in an emergency.

Why is this important? Families may not be together when an emergency happens, and if you have a written family emergency plan, then you and your loved ones will be better able in every way to handle an emergency.

Here's what to do:

• Talk about the types of emergencies that could happen to you - include weather emergencies and other natural disasters and human-caused situations.

• Decide on a meeting place in case you cannot return home. Choose a neighborhood meeting place and another meeting place if you can't get to your neighborhood. Also, if you have pets, choose a destination that accepts pets if you ever need to evacuate your home for any length of time.

• Choose an out-of-town friend or relative as an emergency point of contact. The reason this is important is that it may be easier to make a long distance phone call than to call across town, so an out-of-town contact can help communicate among separated family members. Be sure everyone in your family carries the phone number for that person.

• If you are a parent, ask your schools and daycare providers how they will communicate with families during a crisis. Ask if they are prepared to "shelter in place" if needed and where they plan to go if they must leave.

• Write down your family emergency plan. Get printable worksheets to make a plan at www.ReadyVirginia.gov. This Web site also provides information about emergency supplies and how to respond to all types of emergencies.

During an emergency, you will be better prepared to safely reunite your family and loved ones if you have a family plan. In 2009, resolve to be ready ... make a plan now.

Prepared by the Virginia Department of Emergency Management, December 2008

New Home Defense

Bronco Bill — Sun, 26 Oct 2008 12:52:50 GMT

DW and I have been mulling over some kind of home defense that doesn't involve shoot-outs, surface-to-surface missiles, land mines or stealth bombers.
We believe we've come to a mutually agreeable decision...

What he looks like now.

How he'll look in about ~~a year~~ 2 - 3 years...

"Bear" is a 10-week-old full-blood Rottweiller puppy. We have 3 cats at present (we'll see which one gets eaten first!), but they don't seem too interested in taking care of the house or making sure strangers don't come knocking! The only way we know if someone is at the door with them in the house is when they all scatter to hide!!

The idea is that when I'm away and DW is home alone, she'll have some modicom of protection. Right now, he's about as tough as a wet dishrag (although his little baby teeth are as sharp as razors!!).

We have training classes lined up, we've been reading and devouring every tidbit of information about "Rotties" and their lifestyles, social habits, issues and problems, and have talked to at least a dozen "experts" over this past weekend after picking up this little guy on Friday. Oh...and he's also a 'chic magnet' at the pet store!!! LOL!

I have a feeling I'm going to be getting a lot of excercise over the next 10 years or so!!

Vents, Community Preps and Flu Excercise

Bronco Bill — Fri, 22 Aug 2008 19:44:04 GMT

I'll only leave this up on the Front Page for about a week. Comments are welcome.

In the afternoon of August 18, I had the opportunity to sit and talk for about an hour with the one person in my state who is probably more in tune with, and concerned about, Pandemic Influenza than anyone I've met off-line. I wish I could divulge his name and title, but he asked that I not do that, due to the politics involved here. But do rest assured that this person knows what he's talking about.
This coming November will be the 2nd live, all-state Pandemic Flu excercise. More on that in an upcoming Diary.
The first thing we talked about was the importance of ventilators. This is the same person I spoke with last week about the number of vents available here in the state, as well as the US.
After hemming and hawwing, he looked straight at me and said "There is no way ventilators are going to keep anyone alive in a pandemic. Even Health Care Workers will be working in panic mode, scared that they may catch the bug, and there is a good possibility that mistakes will be made. Vents need to be attached and adjusted by a Respiratory Therapist, and there aren't enough RTs to go around. A large majority of HCWs are not going to want to put themselves at risk as they have to remove tubes and expose themselves to a deadly virus. The only option that we've seen is to put them in full bio-hazard suits, and we just don't have those available on a large-scale basis."
We spoke about the option of home-care, and the one thing mentioned most often was that most home-care will mainly consist of keeping the patient rested, hydrated, and calm. The majority of the population doesn't know, and wouldn't be comfortable using, medical procedures without a trained HCW at hand.

Quarantines. They won't happen. Not in Virginia, anyway. The thinking is that, first, this is the US. Ever since WWII, we don't quarantine entire populations for any reason, and FEMA knows that. Second, to cut off a group of people, either for their own safety or the safety of others would be nearly impossible given the size of the areas that would be affected by such a quarantine. There are some differences in what the local Emergency Planners are saying and what the state executives are saying, though. That will need to be looked into very closely, and some "adjustments" will have to be made.

School closures. This state, like Massachussetts, is a Commonwealth. The Department of Education has no say over individual school districts when it comes to closing schools. That decision is left entirely up to the districts. It really bothers most of us, including my contact, but that's the way it is here. Nothing short of a major state vote is going to change that.

Community Preps. The Commonwealth has set aside their stockpile of anti-virals and emergency supplies to be used, not just for PanFlu, but for most major disasters. We were the first state to take part in the purchase of the Tamiflu stockpile, and the second state to have live PanFlu excercises that encompassed the majority of health districts in the state. There have been at least 8 localities that have held seminars and neighborhood meetings, one of which I attended last year: Local Williamsburg PanFlu Prep Presentation.

PSAs The Commonwealth has several on-line pages ready for JIT broadcast in case of PanFlu, as well as a new draft of the state Influenza plan, dated June 2008, as well as the official state website here.
As for current PSAs, I haven't seen nor heard any broadcasts regarding PanFlu or prepping. We're in the middle of storm/hurricane season, and most of the prep focus is there. Apparently, the PanFlu plan is to notify the public as soon as a threat is realized. Unfortunately, the public prep announcements will mimic what is on pandemicflu.gov, which at this time is "up to two weeks" of food and water.

We spoke for about an hour, covering several areas along with the above. Basically, the state is prepared for just about any emergency and/or disaster. At least, as well prepared as local politics will allow at this time.